Sporadically Updated Trade Information

First: buy the book, support local bloggers and enjoy enriching baseball entertainment all afternoon long. 

Second: Haphazardly updated trade deadline notes with Twins spin -- 

 

• I wrote about Pirates' left-handed relief pitcher John Grabow yesterday as a potential trade candidate.  Following the Freddy Sanchez-to-San Francisco trade, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette beat writer, Dejan Kovacevic says that it is likely that the Pirates are done wheeling-and-dealing this year and that they would like to see if Grabow actually reaches Type A status.    

• Geoff Baker in his Seattle Times blog noted that there is the outside possibility of the M's moving right-handed reliever Mark Lowe.  Lowe is the prototypical power arm out of the 'pen, registering at 96.3-mph on average when coming with the heater which he compliments with a slider (a deviation from 2008 when he was a fastball-changeup pitcher).    

• The Mariners were also recently linked to rumors involving Brewers shortstop JJ Hardy or the AAA prospect Alcides Escobar.   There had been an offseason movement encouraging the Twins to acquire Hardy to fill the need at short, thankfully, the Twins did not go down that road.  But now with the Brewers now 7.5 games out of the Central and injuries to Manny Parra, Dave Bush and now Jeff Suppan might mitigate the need for more pitching.  Hardy provides respectable defense, but has seen his line drive rate drop each year since 2005 (falling from 21.1 percent in 2005 to 13.5 percent in 2009) as well as a steep increase ni his strikeout rate (from 12.3 percent in 2007 to 19.4 this year) resulting in a career-low .679 OPS (We have one of those).  He's on a one-year, $4.65 million and would be in line for a raise in 2010 but considering his career OPS is .758 and that he's only 26 years old, he's probably due to rebound.  The catch is that the Brewers are probably looking for some MLB-ready pitching, which the Twins are scouring for themselves.  Paradox.   

• Since acquiring second baseman Felipe Lopez from the Diamondbacks for a pair of C-list prospects on July 19th, Lopez has gone 11-for-32 (.344) for the Brewers.  In that same time span, Alexi Casilla has gone 4-for-27 (.148).  Before you sharpen your pitchforks, consider that Lopez has managed a .364 on-base percentage while Casilla has produced a on-base percentage three points lower (.361) by walking eight times to Lopez's one.  I'm not sayin', I'm just sayin.   

• From a colleague in an email after the David Ortiz news broke: "No wonder Ortiz sucked while he was with the Twins. We didn't have the good drugs here. Manny hooked him up with the good stuff when he got to Boston. All the Twins can get is what Juan Rincon was on and that apparently will only make you as good as Juan Rincon."  

• Classic Ozzie Guillen quote yesterday:  ''I want to see the piranhas in a different lake next year. 'Let's see those mother [bleepers] hit when it's 20 degrees outside. They'll have a little different record at home.'' 

• Since Oakland does not appear to be selling on Michael Wuertz (gloveslap, La Velle), the Twins should consider traveling further south down the California coastline and find out what it would take to pry Padres closer, Heath Bell, away.  Since assuming the closer role in San Deigo after Hoffman left, Bell has embraced the high leverage situations thoroughly.  In 40.1 innings this season, Bell has struck out 48, walked just 15 and has a tidy 2.01 ERA while converting 25 for 26 save opportunities.  Bell made other adjustments including the new position title, such as moving away from a fastball-slider combo towards a fastball-curve mix, that has led to a high strikeout rate (from 8.19 in 2008 to 10.71 in '09) and a minuscule RHB average of .091 (6-for-66).  He is in his first arbitration year and would be under club control for another two seasons making the price tag on the reliever presumably steep.  Add in competition from the Marlins, Rays and Yankees, and the Twins chances slim.  For premium relief work the Twins would have to part with a premium prospect. 

• According to Dejan Kovacevic, the Cubs are working on acquiring John Grabow as well as starter Tom Gorzelanny.  Earlier today, La Velle has gone on record stating that he did not think Grabow "addressed any of the Twins' pressing needs".  As far as middle relief goes, Grabow is as good as any out there having experience in late inning situations and matching up well against both left-handed and right-handed batters.  The left-handed Gorzelanny has had a rollercoaster career.  From 2006-2007, he went 16-15 with a 3.86 ERA and struck out an average of 6.0 K/9 in 43 starts.  The wheels fell off last year as his control vanished along with his ability to retire righties (.593 slugging against).  In his brief time up in Pittsburgh he's worked out of the bullpen but had improved in AAA striking out 85 in 87 innings with a 2.48 ERA.  The Pirates would want at least two left-handed pitchers in return -- the Twins have Brian Duensing and Ryan Mullins that fit that profile. 

• Geoff Baker reports that the Twins had scouts out to watch Jarrod Washburn as well as look at Sean White.  Writes Baker "Minnesota does have young infielder Alexi Casilla, who is a decent glove but as you can see, not much of a bat. There's also Delmon Young, whose game has gone south and is not even a viable DH candidate."  The Mariners originally asked the Yankees for Joba Chamberlain or Phil Hughes in exchange for Washburn and they were shotdown with extreme prejudice.  Seattle currently has a list of non-A-list prospect in the Yankees system that they can select from. 

• I interrupt the trade talks/updates for a dash of Ortiz-related hypocrisy:

• February 2009:  "'I think you clean up the game by the testing.  I know that if I test positive by using any kind of substance, I know that I'm going to disrespect my family, the game, the fans and everybody, and I don't want to be facing that situation.  So what would I do? I won't use it, and I'm pretty sure that everybody is on the same page.'  He drew a distinction between the use of steroids through 2003, when it was not penalized, and the period since then when testing with penalties has been in effect."  

The Relief Candidates

First of all, buy the book, the majority of our thoughts are accumulated into that periodical that will undoubtedly bring you great pleasure as the ESPN.com COUNTDOWN TO THE TRADE DEADLINE clock winds down to zero. 

 

Secondly, buy the damn book or kittens die.

 

Third, let's breakdown some of these potential trade "targets": 

 

Mike Wuertz | RHRP | Oakland A's 

 

Drafted by the Cubs in the 11th round in 1997, Wuertz ascended the Chicago ladder like most premium relievers: as a starter in the minors.  Armed with a youthful trio of Kerry Wood, Mark Prior and Carlos Zambrano in the rotation in 2003, the Cubs moved Wuertz to the Iowa bullpen.  Wuertz flourished in his new role and soon found himself in Wrigleyville assuming filler work in the early part of 2004 but earned a taste of high leverage situations in September for a playoff contending team.

 

Wuertz would work 262 inning in a Cubs uniform, striking out 270 and walking 128 (2.10 K/BB ratio).  In February 2009, the Cubs flipped Wuertz to Oakland for two pedestrian AA prospects after agreeing to a one-year, $1.1 million contract with Chicago on January 20th.  What the Cubs saw was a strikeout rate that declined from 9.83 K/9 in 2007 to 6.04 K/9 in 2008 as opponents' line drive rate swelled from 15.2 percent to 25 percent. 

 

The 30-year-old Austin, MN native had also changed his repertoire as well in his final years with the Cubs.  Equipped with a good slider, Wuertz began favoring the pitch more and then wound up throwing in over 60 percent of the time in 2008.  This year, he's thrown it 62.8 percent of the time and has seen his out-of-zone swing percentage jump to 38 percent (well above the league average of 25) and his strikeout rate rebound to 11.79 K/9 and a career-best 4.77 K/BB.  Wuertz's low walk rate appears to be a product of him being able to get empty swings as his contact rate went fro 72 percent in 2008 to a lowly 56 in 2009.

 

To race to acquire Wuertz is crowded, as there are more drooly suitors here than in the Bachelorette, which probably makes Billy Beane aroused.   FoxSports reported that because Wuertz is under club control for 2011 and has been one of the best set-up men in 2009, the A's will be looking for a kingly sum for the righty.  The upside is that he would remain with the Twins for the 2011 season and would make an excellent insurance policy if Neshek is unable to fully rebound from Tommy John surgery.  The downside is that hitters are bound to adjust - he's not consistently hitting the strike zone so eventually opposing batters will make him throw a strike - so the K/9 and strikeouts-to-walk ratio, while attractive now, are probably in line to correct. 

 

Sean White | RHRP | Seattle Mariners

White's career took a roundabout path to get to the Majors.  After being drafted by the Orioles in 1999, the Expos in 2002 White finally signed with the Braves after being selected in the 8th round in 2003.  The righty meandered through the Braves organization, alternative between a starter and reliever, never emerging as a legitimate pitching prospect and began to grow old on the vine.  In 2006, the Pirates selected him in the Rule 5 and he was purchased from Pittsburgh by Seattle the same day to bring him back to his native state. 

The Mariners were infatuated with his big frame (6'3"), velocity (93) and newly found changeup but after a sampling of 15 unimpressive games in 2007, White was option back to AAA following spring training in 2008.  Looking for inexpensive bullpen help under new management, the Mariners took the 28-year-old White to Seattle in 2009.  He posted a 1.75 ERA in his first two months of the season, a number not entirely reflective of his iffy 11/12 K/BB ratio and beginning in June, his luck began to catch up with him as he posted a 4.64 ERA and a 10/8 K/BB over the course of 21.1 innings. 

 

Because this will be just his second year of MLB service, the Twins would have White under control for another year under indentured servitude before arbitration starts.  The question is, would the Twins really want him?   La Velle reported that the Twins have interest in him, noting that his biggest trait is his groundball tendency. As it stands, they have the exact same guy in Bobby Keppel.  If the Twins were serious they would be inquiring about bullpen-mate in closer David Aardsma rather than White. 

John Grabow | LHRP | Pittsburgh Pirates

 

A 3rd round draft choice by the Pirates in 1997, the 30-year-old left-hander has notched a pretty consistent career in the Pittsburgh bullpen.  In his first five seasons at the major league level, Grabow never really produced any eye-popping numbers, sitting at an ERA+ of 94 while working in 271 games and averaging a very good K/9 of 8.4 with a moderate 3.4 BB/9. 

 

In those seasons, Grabow worked 0.88 innings per appearances partially because he was reserved for innings to retire same-sided batters. It's hard for left-handers to breakaway from the preconceived notions that they should be relegated to retiring the same-sided batters but Grabow's platoon splits shows that he handles lefties and righties equally well (career OPS .723 vs LHB, .748 vs RHB). Following the 2007 season, the kiddie gloves were removed and Grabow was given the opportunity to face both handed hitters after he became the Pirates dedicated "8th Inning Guy" in 2008. 

 

There are two things that you will notice about Grabow's pitch repertoire is that he began throwing his changeup more often starting in 2007.  This increase is correlated with the rising number of right-handed bats faced.  Even with his higher leverage situations and unfavorable platoon match-ups, Grabow made his ERA dip (ERA+ 132) while his peripherals went a little south.  His strikeout rate dropped to 7.5 K/9 while his walks rose to 4.8 BB/9 as did his fastball's velocity. 

 

Grabow is owed $2.2 million on his one-year deal which was signed to avoid his final year of arbitration.  Unless the Twins decide to extend him, Grabow will wind up a free agent at the conclusion of the 2009 season.  Preliminary Elias Rankings suggest Grabow could be labeled a Type A free agent giving the Twins an additional draft pick if signed by another team, given the fact the Pirates are in constant rebuilding mode, they would probably request compensation for losing that pick as well.

 

Jason Frasor | RHRP | Toronto Blue Jays

 

Drafted originally by the Detroit Tigers, Frasor was involved in two trades before he ever got above AA ball.  After striking out 50 in 36.2 innings and a 2.95 ERA while with the Dodgers' AA affiliate in Jacksonville, the Blue Jays traded Jayson Werth for the right-handed reliever.  Toronto summoned the 26-year-old to close out 17 games that season and then used him liberally in the bullpen for the next few seasons. From 2004 to 2008, Frasor went 12-20 with a 4.03 ERA in 297.1 innings, notching 268 strikeouts and walking 136.

 

You could consider Frasor the type of pitcher that evolves.  After right-handed batters slugged .410 off of him in 2006, Frasor developed a slider and saw his RHB slugging against drop to .300 the follow season.  When lefties tagged him for a .422 slugging percentage in 2008, he worked on a split-finger which has decreased that to .348 in 2009.  This combination of hard fastballs, sliders and splitters has been death-from-above to right-handed batters thus far in 2009.  In 70 match-ups, Frasor has held RHB to a .194 batting average and has allowed just one extra base hit. 

 

Frasor has transformed into an extreme flyball-oriented pitcher, getting elevated on 48 percent of balls put in play, yet the right-hander has remained unscathed as just one of those aerial assults have wandered over the fence.  As we've seen with Scott Baker, flyball tendencies can sneak over the fence in bunches so there is a strong chance that his HR/FB rate inflates in the second-half. 

 

Due $1.45 million and is in his final arbitration year, Frasor has the probability of being labeled a Type B free agent depending on the remainder of the season. 

BUY THE BOOK. 

Identifying Francisco Liriano's Problem

 

Brace yourself for an overwhelmingly large understatement:  Something is wrong with Francisco Liriano.

 

At 4-10 with a pear-shaped 5.56 ERA, Liriano has had a less than successful season to date.  Following an outing in which he had just allowed three home runs - all by right-handed batters - manager Ron Gardenhire offered this as insight to reporters when asked what Liriano can do to clear the perceived mental hurdle:  

 

"I think he gets out of whack and just overthrows the ball.  You can call that mental; you can call that whatever you want. It's a matter of remaining in control of yourself on the mound. It's speeding up the game instead of slowing it down. Trying to make the perfect pitch. Instead of hitting the glove he tries to make it super nasty."

 

Nowhere in that explanation was any acknowledgement to the fact that he is being destroyed by right-handed batters.  After limiting right-handed batters to a fairly average .266/.335/.410 batting line in 250 plate appearances in 2008, Liriano has taken a noticeable turn for the worse in '09.   This year, right-handed opponents have been slaughtering the ball, slugging over 100 points higher (.516) and have tagged him for 17 of his 18 home runs.  Sheer obliteration. 

 

Normally when this sort of favoritism to one particular subset alarm bells go "a-ringy-dingy-dingy" but back in May, Liriano referenced another problem that laid the foundation for the continued cited excuse.  "I think I overthrow when I've got men on base," Liriano said. "That's been a big problem for me all year long. So I got to just calm down. I'm rushing too much."  (There's that catchphrase again, "overthrowing".  Anyone else feel like they are getting a glimpse of how Rick Anderson talks to his pitchers?).  A month later in June Joe Christensen highlighted just how big of a problem it would eventually become: 

 

2008
Nobody on base: .250/.318/.406
Men on base: .260/.338/.374

2009
Nobody on base: .243/.314/.399
Men on base: .325/.413/.595

 

If this were truly a runners-on-base problem, Liriano would show signs of struggles against left-handed batters too right?  Behind-the-scenes data reveal that the hitters that are doing the most damage with runners on base are once again - you guessed it - right-handed.   While lefties were slugging a handful of points higher when Liriano was throwing from the stretch, righties raised their slugging percentage almost TWO HUNDRED POINTS when a teammate was on the basepaths.   Annihilated.  Spanked. 

 

Is Ron Gardenhire expecting us to believe that Liriano is doing something "mentally" different to just one set of hitters?  That he is only overthrowing when someone is in the right-handed batters box?  As the old saying goes "Don't piss on me and tell me that it's raining".  There is only a certain amount of credence I usually lend to something being a "mental" problem in baseball because there always comes a point where psychological gives way to physiological.  After all, it's not as if he's throwing telepathically up there; there are actual real live muscles involved.  At the end of the day, Liriano does something physically different with right-handed batters than their counterparts.  

 

Two things that we accept as true are that A) Liriano is having troubles pitching to right-handers and B) the tribulations are exacerbated while he is pitching from the stretch.  To summarize, Liriano throws the same basic set of pitches and does so effectively to one type of batter but completely disintegrates when the opposite digs in and more so when a runner is on base. 

 

Breaking down the Pittsburgh outing through pitchf/x at brooksbaseball.net, you will notice a slight difference in the way Liriano approaches the two groups.  In this particular start, Liriano allowed two home runs to Pittsburgh's right-handed hitting Andy LaRoche and Andrew McClutchen.  The top graph represents his release point while facing right-handed batters and the second graph is the release point against left-handed batters.   One thing you should note between the two release points is the difference between where Liriano lets go of the ball to a right-hander versus left-hander.  While both are thrown at six feet in height, he vast majority of pitches thrown to right-handers are released between one and one-and-a-half horizontal feet away from the center line.  For the lefties, Liriano throws the ball around one-and-a-half to two feet away from the center line. 

 

This allows for an approximate a quarter-foot in horizontal release on average.  Even this seemingly butterfly wing flap has sizable ramifications and greatly changes the movement on the horizontal axis.  Focus on his fastball as that has been the pitch that has given his the most problems (-2.04 wFB/C): 
 

The first graph, Liriano delivering to right-handed batters, shows that the horizontal movement in his fastball (green line) travels about 1.25 feet on average as it spins out of hand sixty feet-six inches away.  Meanwhile when Liriano throws the same fastball to left-handed batters it moves an additional 0.75 horizontal feet.  Make no mistakes - for something traveling more than 90-mph this is significant. Therefore, Liriano's quarter-foot release difference is costing him about a half-foot in fastball movement and equates to a flatter fastball for right-handers to feast upon.    

 

In the event that you might think a different release point might be standard for pitchers, here is Glen Perkins's July 17th start against the Rangers.  Note the fluid, mirrored release for both sides of the plate:

 

  

 

In his July 9th start against the Yankees, a game in which the right-handed batting Mark Teixiera went yard, Liriano demonstrated the same habits: 

 

 

Same release, same results.  Which brings us to Anaheim in his most recent start on July 24th.  In this five and a third inning debacle, Liriano surrendered home runs to the right-handed hitting Robb Quinlan, Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis.  "It's very difficult. I'm trying, you know, to put it behind me, but sometimes that doesn't happen," said Liriano following the start, "I'm just thinking too much about what happened in my last start. I don't know, I just think I have to be mentally stronger, not get too frustrated, try to come back and make some better pitches." Below you will see the same pattern of release, albeit with a small sample of left-handed pitches (Bobby Abreu was the only left-handed batting Angel that night):

 

 

 

 

Clearly he's doing something physically different with his release point that is adversely effecting his fastball movement to right-handed hitters.  Judging from the previous quotes, it would appear that the Twins believe that a rain dance, voodoo or a session on the couch are in order to fix what ails Liriano.  The real solution requires extensive bullpen sessions with someone standing in the right-handed batters box so Liriano regains comfort and commits his motion to muscle memory for either handed hitters. 

 

 

Twins Targeting Cabrera?

At FoxSports.com, Jon Paul Morosi reported that the Twins have been fairly active in a pursuit for an infielder now that third baseman Joe Crede is also likely headed to the DL.  According to Morosi, the Twins "have already discussed shortstop Orlando Cabrera with the A's" among other possibilities including Pittsburgh's doubleplay combination, Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez, Toronto's Marco Scutero and even darkhorse candidate in the Royals' super utility man, Mark Teahan. 

 

Morosi continues by suggesting that of the four listed, shortstop Orlando Cabrera makes the most logical trade target for Minnesota given his position and his success as a number two hitter.  As Seth Stohs identified in his analysis of the Oakland Athletics for the TwinsCentric Trade Deadline Primer, Cabrera has a strong likelihood of relocating outside the Bay Area given his attractive one-year contract and A's GM Billy Beane's propensity for using veterans to wrangle in prospects.  Two weeks ago, we were apprehensive about the Twins potential of acquiring Cabrera, given his lowly .293 on-base percentage, but since the beginning of July, the right-handed batting Cabrera has hit .387/.410/.547 with two home runs in 17 games.  This sudden burst of production has drawn the attention of teams in need of a shortstop including the Mariners, Reds and Mets in addition to the Twins.  Always the master at leveraging his players in trades, Beane will undoubtedly look to use this inflated production to extract a fairly substantial prospect or two for Cabrera. 

 

Who would be foolish enough to bite?  Even with the increased productivity, make no mistakes about it, Cabrera's beginning to show his age.  Over the course of the past four seasons, Cabrera has seen his power and his speed numbers drop significantly, resulting in a strong indication that the two-time Gold Glove winner is weakening and slowing down:  

 

O. Cabrera	Isolated Power	Speed
2009	.087	3.2
2008	.089	4.6
2007	.096	5.1
2006	.122	5.7

 

Part of losing his strength/speed is that Cabrera is no longer pulling the ball with as much authority as he once did. Since turning 30 in 2006, Cabrera's ability to turn on a pitch has reduced. Naturally, scouting reports have picked up on his sluggish swing and have started to throw more fastballs to counter.

 

	Pull Pct	AVG on Pulled Pitches	Fastball Pct
2009	23	.378	66.2
2008	25	.340	64.8
2007	28	.479	60.5
2006	30	.438	60.7

 

As a predominately groundball hitter, Cabrera's average has been bolstered by muscling a few more groundballs through the infield, however in the past three seasons his batting average on grounders has declined from .306 in 2007 to .248 in 2008 to .235 this year. 

 

At 34 years old, Cabrera is no longer the spry shortstop that he was in Montreal.  While his Ultimate Zone Rating had been favorable the previous two seasons (13.1 and 8.9 in 2008 and 2007 respectively), this year his defense has worsened (-9.3).  According the Fielding Bible Plus/Minus system, Cabrera is having a horrendous time getting to balls to his right, misplaying 12 balls that an average shortstop would have been expected to make ranging towards third.  A shortstop whose shortcoming is ranging to his right may have been masked by Joe Crede's excellent ability to make plays to his left (+10 plays) but with Crede's impending DL stint looming, the Twins will be forced to use Brendan Harris, Brian Buscher or Danny Valencia, all of whom fall far short of Crede's defensive prowess.  By the Fielding Bible's accounting system, Cabreras's defense has cost the A's 16 runs.  The contact-heavy, groundball-inducing pitchers, like Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins, would suffer from the loss of coverage on the left side of the infield. 

 

Considering all of this, would bringing in Cabrera benefit the Twins?  With the probability that his uptick in offensive output will come to an end (based upon his groundball tendencies and dilapidated power stroke) coupled with his problematic defense, the Twins should focus their energy and resources elsewhere. 

Blackburn Pitching in the Dead of Night

 

When your pitching style is better described as a dance routine, you have little room for missteps.  With ten days of rest between starts, Nick Blackburn was hardly the pirouetting marksman that we have been accustomed to seeing on the mound.  His normal groundball tendencies gave way to an all-out aerial attack including Daric Barton and Matt Holliday launching home runs number 11 and 12 against him this year.  When the smoke cleared and his night was all but over Blackburn's demeanor, like his pitches, was as flat as a week-old bottle of 7-Up as the A’s ransacked him for seven earned runs on thirteen hits in five innings of work. 

 

“(Pitching coach Rick Anderson) was telling me what it was between innings.” Blackburn told reporters in the clubhouse, “and I still couldn’t go out there and make the adjustments.”

This outing pales in comparison to what he was like just fifteen days ago against the Tigers.  Completing nine innings while scattering seven hits and striking out six, Blackburn compiled what we have come to expect as the norm -- pitches moving in every which direction and more speed changes than rush hour, as visually represented here: 

 

 

This assortment prevented hitters from sitting in one area, looking for one type of movement.  Just when you think he was going to run a pitch in on you, Blackburn's cutting one away and gets it off the end of the bat for an easy groundball out.  

 

Blackburn's night in Oakland, and his first post-All Star Break start, failed to capture that kind of magic.  His pitches lacked the run they did at the beginning of the month. 

 

 

 

 As you can see, the Athletics weren't forced to patrol the plate and strike zone for rogue cutters and runaway four-seamers like the Tigers were up against.  When you are throwing 86-90-mph with minimal movement, opposing batters can hone in on a location instead of covering an area from batter's box-to-batter's box. 

 

As pitcher that relies on touch and feel, Blackburn's ten days of rest probably was the culprit behind his inability to move his pitches like he normally does.  He had the opportunity to keeps this start from going from a headache instead of a full-blown migraine had the defense converted one or two more groundballs.  Consider this Oakland outing an anomaly but bear in mind as a contact-heavy pitcher, Blackburn's stats will fluctuate with his defense behind him.