Identifying Francisco Liriano's Problem

 

Brace yourself for an overwhelmingly large understatement:  Something is wrong with Francisco Liriano.

 

At 4-10 with a pear-shaped 5.56 ERA, Liriano has had a less than successful season to date.  Following an outing in which he had just allowed three home runs - all by right-handed batters - manager Ron Gardenhire offered this as insight to reporters when asked what Liriano can do to clear the perceived mental hurdle:  

 

"I think he gets out of whack and just overthrows the ball.  You can call that mental; you can call that whatever you want. It's a matter of remaining in control of yourself on the mound. It's speeding up the game instead of slowing it down. Trying to make the perfect pitch. Instead of hitting the glove he tries to make it super nasty."

 

Nowhere in that explanation was any acknowledgement to the fact that he is being destroyed by right-handed batters.  After limiting right-handed batters to a fairly average .266/.335/.410 batting line in 250 plate appearances in 2008, Liriano has taken a noticeable turn for the worse in '09.   This year, right-handed opponents have been slaughtering the ball, slugging over 100 points higher (.516) and have tagged him for 17 of his 18 home runs.  Sheer obliteration. 

 

Normally when this sort of favoritism to one particular subset alarm bells go "a-ringy-dingy-dingy" but back in May, Liriano referenced another problem that laid the foundation for the continued cited excuse.  "I think I overthrow when I've got men on base," Liriano said. "That's been a big problem for me all year long. So I got to just calm down. I'm rushing too much."  (There's that catchphrase again, "overthrowing".  Anyone else feel like they are getting a glimpse of how Rick Anderson talks to his pitchers?).  A month later in June Joe Christensen highlighted just how big of a problem it would eventually become: 

 

2008
Nobody on base: .250/.318/.406
Men on base: .260/.338/.374

2009
Nobody on base: .243/.314/.399
Men on base: .325/.413/.595

 

If this were truly a runners-on-base problem, Liriano would show signs of struggles against left-handed batters too right?  Behind-the-scenes data reveal that the hitters that are doing the most damage with runners on base are once again - you guessed it - right-handed.   While lefties were slugging a handful of points higher when Liriano was throwing from the stretch, righties raised their slugging percentage almost TWO HUNDRED POINTS when a teammate was on the basepaths.   Annihilated.  Spanked. 

 

Is Ron Gardenhire expecting us to believe that Liriano is doing something "mentally" different to just one set of hitters?  That he is only overthrowing when someone is in the right-handed batters box?  As the old saying goes "Don't piss on me and tell me that it's raining".  There is only a certain amount of credence I usually lend to something being a "mental" problem in baseball because there always comes a point where psychological gives way to physiological.  After all, it's not as if he's throwing telepathically up there; there are actual real live muscles involved.  At the end of the day, Liriano does something physically different with right-handed batters than their counterparts.  

 

Two things that we accept as true are that A) Liriano is having troubles pitching to right-handers and B) the tribulations are exacerbated while he is pitching from the stretch.  To summarize, Liriano throws the same basic set of pitches and does so effectively to one type of batter but completely disintegrates when the opposite digs in and more so when a runner is on base. 

 

Breaking down the Pittsburgh outing through pitchf/x at brooksbaseball.net, you will notice a slight difference in the way Liriano approaches the two groups.  In this particular start, Liriano allowed two home runs to Pittsburgh's right-handed hitting Andy LaRoche and Andrew McClutchen.  The top graph represents his release point while facing right-handed batters and the second graph is the release point against left-handed batters.   One thing you should note between the two release points is the difference between where Liriano lets go of the ball to a right-hander versus left-hander.  While both are thrown at six feet in height, he vast majority of pitches thrown to right-handers are released between one and one-and-a-half horizontal feet away from the center line.  For the lefties, Liriano throws the ball around one-and-a-half to two feet away from the center line. 

 

This allows for an approximate a quarter-foot in horizontal release on average.  Even this seemingly butterfly wing flap has sizable ramifications and greatly changes the movement on the horizontal axis.  Focus on his fastball as that has been the pitch that has given his the most problems (-2.04 wFB/C): 
 

The first graph, Liriano delivering to right-handed batters, shows that the horizontal movement in his fastball (green line) travels about 1.25 feet on average as it spins out of hand sixty feet-six inches away.  Meanwhile when Liriano throws the same fastball to left-handed batters it moves an additional 0.75 horizontal feet.  Make no mistakes - for something traveling more than 90-mph this is significant. Therefore, Liriano's quarter-foot release difference is costing him about a half-foot in fastball movement and equates to a flatter fastball for right-handers to feast upon.    

 

In the event that you might think a different release point might be standard for pitchers, here is Glen Perkins's July 17th start against the Rangers.  Note the fluid, mirrored release for both sides of the plate:

 

  

 

In his July 9th start against the Yankees, a game in which the right-handed batting Mark Teixiera went yard, Liriano demonstrated the same habits: 

 

 

Same release, same results.  Which brings us to Anaheim in his most recent start on July 24th.  In this five and a third inning debacle, Liriano surrendered home runs to the right-handed hitting Robb Quinlan, Mike Napoli and Jeff Mathis.  "It's very difficult. I'm trying, you know, to put it behind me, but sometimes that doesn't happen," said Liriano following the start, "I'm just thinking too much about what happened in my last start. I don't know, I just think I have to be mentally stronger, not get too frustrated, try to come back and make some better pitches." Below you will see the same pattern of release, albeit with a small sample of left-handed pitches (Bobby Abreu was the only left-handed batting Angel that night):

 

 

 

 

Clearly he's doing something physically different with his release point that is adversely effecting his fastball movement to right-handed hitters.  Judging from the previous quotes, it would appear that the Twins believe that a rain dance, voodoo or a session on the couch are in order to fix what ails Liriano.  The real solution requires extensive bullpen sessions with someone standing in the right-handed batters box so Liriano regains comfort and commits his motion to muscle memory for either handed hitters. 

 

 

Twins Targeting Cabrera?

At FoxSports.com, Jon Paul Morosi reported that the Twins have been fairly active in a pursuit for an infielder now that third baseman Joe Crede is also likely headed to the DL.  According to Morosi, the Twins "have already discussed shortstop Orlando Cabrera with the A's" among other possibilities including Pittsburgh's doubleplay combination, Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez, Toronto's Marco Scutero and even darkhorse candidate in the Royals' super utility man, Mark Teahan. 

 

Morosi continues by suggesting that of the four listed, shortstop Orlando Cabrera makes the most logical trade target for Minnesota given his position and his success as a number two hitter.  As Seth Stohs identified in his analysis of the Oakland Athletics for the TwinsCentric Trade Deadline Primer, Cabrera has a strong likelihood of relocating outside the Bay Area given his attractive one-year contract and A's GM Billy Beane's propensity for using veterans to wrangle in prospects.  Two weeks ago, we were apprehensive about the Twins potential of acquiring Cabrera, given his lowly .293 on-base percentage, but since the beginning of July, the right-handed batting Cabrera has hit .387/.410/.547 with two home runs in 17 games.  This sudden burst of production has drawn the attention of teams in need of a shortstop including the Mariners, Reds and Mets in addition to the Twins.  Always the master at leveraging his players in trades, Beane will undoubtedly look to use this inflated production to extract a fairly substantial prospect or two for Cabrera. 

 

Who would be foolish enough to bite?  Even with the increased productivity, make no mistakes about it, Cabrera's beginning to show his age.  Over the course of the past four seasons, Cabrera has seen his power and his speed numbers drop significantly, resulting in a strong indication that the two-time Gold Glove winner is weakening and slowing down:  

 

O. Cabrera	Isolated Power	Speed
2009	.087	3.2
2008	.089	4.6
2007	.096	5.1
2006	.122	5.7

 

Part of losing his strength/speed is that Cabrera is no longer pulling the ball with as much authority as he once did. Since turning 30 in 2006, Cabrera's ability to turn on a pitch has reduced. Naturally, scouting reports have picked up on his sluggish swing and have started to throw more fastballs to counter.

 

	Pull Pct	AVG on Pulled Pitches	Fastball Pct
2009	23	.378	66.2
2008	25	.340	64.8
2007	28	.479	60.5
2006	30	.438	60.7

 

As a predominately groundball hitter, Cabrera's average has been bolstered by muscling a few more groundballs through the infield, however in the past three seasons his batting average on grounders has declined from .306 in 2007 to .248 in 2008 to .235 this year. 

 

At 34 years old, Cabrera is no longer the spry shortstop that he was in Montreal.  While his Ultimate Zone Rating had been favorable the previous two seasons (13.1 and 8.9 in 2008 and 2007 respectively), this year his defense has worsened (-9.3).  According the Fielding Bible Plus/Minus system, Cabrera is having a horrendous time getting to balls to his right, misplaying 12 balls that an average shortstop would have been expected to make ranging towards third.  A shortstop whose shortcoming is ranging to his right may have been masked by Joe Crede's excellent ability to make plays to his left (+10 plays) but with Crede's impending DL stint looming, the Twins will be forced to use Brendan Harris, Brian Buscher or Danny Valencia, all of whom fall far short of Crede's defensive prowess.  By the Fielding Bible's accounting system, Cabreras's defense has cost the A's 16 runs.  The contact-heavy, groundball-inducing pitchers, like Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins, would suffer from the loss of coverage on the left side of the infield. 

 

Considering all of this, would bringing in Cabrera benefit the Twins?  With the probability that his uptick in offensive output will come to an end (based upon his groundball tendencies and dilapidated power stroke) coupled with his problematic defense, the Twins should focus their energy and resources elsewhere. 

Blackburn Pitching in the Dead of Night

 

When your pitching style is better described as a dance routine, you have little room for missteps.  With ten days of rest between starts, Nick Blackburn was hardly the pirouetting marksman that we have been accustomed to seeing on the mound.  His normal groundball tendencies gave way to an all-out aerial attack including Daric Barton and Matt Holliday launching home runs number 11 and 12 against him this year.  When the smoke cleared and his night was all but over Blackburn's demeanor, like his pitches, was as flat as a week-old bottle of 7-Up as the A’s ransacked him for seven earned runs on thirteen hits in five innings of work. 

 

“(Pitching coach Rick Anderson) was telling me what it was between innings.” Blackburn told reporters in the clubhouse, “and I still couldn’t go out there and make the adjustments.”

This outing pales in comparison to what he was like just fifteen days ago against the Tigers.  Completing nine innings while scattering seven hits and striking out six, Blackburn compiled what we have come to expect as the norm -- pitches moving in every which direction and more speed changes than rush hour, as visually represented here: 

 

 

This assortment prevented hitters from sitting in one area, looking for one type of movement.  Just when you think he was going to run a pitch in on you, Blackburn's cutting one away and gets it off the end of the bat for an easy groundball out.  

 

Blackburn's night in Oakland, and his first post-All Star Break start, failed to capture that kind of magic.  His pitches lacked the run they did at the beginning of the month. 

 

 

 

 As you can see, the Athletics weren't forced to patrol the plate and strike zone for rogue cutters and runaway four-seamers like the Tigers were up against.  When you are throwing 86-90-mph with minimal movement, opposing batters can hone in on a location instead of covering an area from batter's box-to-batter's box. 

 

As pitcher that relies on touch and feel, Blackburn's ten days of rest probably was the culprit behind his inability to move his pitches like he normally does.  He had the opportunity to keeps this start from going from a headache instead of a full-blown migraine had the defense converted one or two more groundballs.  Consider this Oakland outing an anomaly but bear in mind as a contact-heavy pitcher, Blackburn's stats will fluctuate with his defense behind him. 

 

 

OtB Twins Notes: 07.20

As reported by Seth Stohs at sethspeaks.net on Sunday, the Twins have signed 39-year-old Mark Grudzielanek to a minor league contract and have assigned him to the GCL to re-acclimate the second baseman who had not played organized baseball in 2009.  After his three-years with the Royals between 2006-2008 where he hit .300/.339/.412, Grudzie was listed as a Type A free agent that, combined with his accelerated age, scared off potential suitors this past offseason.  A line drive hitter (23.6 percent since 2002), Grudzielanek makes a lot of contact, rarely walks, while providing quality at-bats against left-handed pitching (.302 BA in 667 PA since 2004) and has hit well out of the number two spot (.291 BA).  Defensively, his range has shrunk in those Kansas City years but his arm and soft hands ensures that he makes all of the outs he can get to.  He's old, recovering from a Ross Gload-induced ankle injury and has been away from the field for almost a year so there is a possibility that Grudz never fully rebounds to his league-average contributions.  Nevertheless, his acquisition signifies the front office's lack of confidence in their current second base options but for minimal risk, the Twins received a player of mid-level reward. 

 

More Twins Blogosphere Run-Down on Grudzielanek's signing:

• TwinsGeek
• Twinkie Town
• Aaron Gleeman
• Seth Stohs
• Nick Nelson
• Josh Johnson

 

Two of our main trade targets discussed in the TwinsCentric Trade Deadline Primer were traded on Sunday.  Tom Haudricourt reports that the Brewers have acquired Diamondbacks second baseman Felipe Lopez for two minor league prospects.  Lopez is due $3.5 million on his one-year contract and would have been an attractive solution for second base if the asking price been reasonable.  The Brewers, who had a need since losing Rickie Weeks for the season, surrendered LF Cole Gillespie (24 YR, AAA) and RHRP Roque Mercedes (22 YR, HA), neither of which are attractive merchandise.  Gillespie has demonstrated a very professional approach at the plate coaxing walks but has marginal power and iffy defense to compliment a weak arm.  Mercedes has the potential of being a solid reliever with 90-94 MPH fastball and plus-curve.  It's hard not to think that the Twins could not have matched this package. 

 

Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles managed to acquire RHRP Cla Meredith away from the Padres for the 31-year-old Oscar Salazar.  Meredith, a 26-year-old side-arming groundball machine, was under club control for the next three seasons while entering arbitration in 2010.  In his four seasons since 2006, Meredith has worked 237.1 innings with a 165-to-60 K-to-BB ratio and a 0.6 HR/9.  Salazar, on the other hand, has found limited time at the big league level because he does field any position exceptionally well but has hit .321/.394/.534 in his 127 PAs in Baltimore.  From the Padres perspective, this just makes no-freakin-sense.  In a player that they should have leveraged the hell out of in Meredith, they accepted less than beans but were desperate for utility help after Edgar Gonzalez was hit in the head with a pitch and hospitalized. 

 

Sid Hartman wrote that the Twins could have landed Pirates second baseman Freddy Sanchez if they were willing to relinquish Francisco Liriano. In spite of his 4-9 record and 5.47 ERA, Liriano is far too valuable to swap for one year of Sanchez.  His strikeout rate is strong (8.2 K/9) while his last seven starts leading up to the All Star break show that he is improving as he posted a 3.95 ERA with a very good 43/18 K/BB ratio in those 43 innings. "Every team tries to make deals, but they are tough to make," GM Bill Smith said. "The teams that are selling players are looking for a high return. We try and balance out the benefit of the short term vs. the long term."

 

Poor Brian O'Nora.  After an incident in 2008 in which the umpire was the recipient of Miguel Olivo's shattered bat to the head, O'Nora took one unfortunate hop on Saturday night right in the babymaker from  Justin Morneau's check-swing.  O'Nora staggered around for a bit before dropping to one knee and twice ran off the field during the game (to presumably throw up or piss blood).    

 

Kelsie Smith says that the Twins will start to curtail Delmon Young's playing time.  "Everybody's had their opportunity now to get themselves settled in," manager Ron Gardenhire said. "Now we're going to put the speed out there, which I like, and see what happens. And Delmon will be a part of it here and there." It might be a harsh reality for someone who hit .329/.333/.474 in 78 PAs dating between June 3rd and July 7th, but Young should be limited to the DH role against left-handed pitchers to reprieve Jason Kubel who is hitting a weak .194 (14-for-72) versus LHP. 

 

Any speculation that the White Sox might be in consideration for Roy Halladay seems fueled by an empty piece in the Chicago Sun-Times suggesting that the Sox are "mulling the price".  Chicago Tribune columnist Rick Morrissey fanned the flames by demanding the Sox land Halladay (a stark contrast to the Twin Cities mouthpieces).  Manager Ozzie Guillen dismisses this by saying ''To make that work would be a lot of money and a lot of players involved. It's nice to say we need this guy or that guy, but it's not easy [to make trades]. I don't think we'll give up half the organization for one guy.''  As we noted in the TwinsCentric Trade Deadline Primer (available for download at $9.95), the Sox are a hard team to read.  GM Kenny Williams pulls the trigger quite often on deals but mostly during the offseason.  His last big-splash deadline foray was landing Freddy Garcia from the Mariners in 2004.  Then again, William has re-acquired tradeable parts from the Braves in the Javier Vazquez trade and had tried to pry Jake Peavy away from the Padres earlier this year so the notion that he will stand pat is any one's guess.

 

Clinging to a two game lead over the Twins, the Tigers received some bad news this week: hard-throwing Joel Zumaya will need to go on the DL with a shoulder injury.  With Zumaya going on the 15-day DL for the Tigers, it exacerbates an already weak area for Detroit.  “He’s been throwing 100 m.p.h.,” manager Jim Leyland said. “It’s hard to assume something isn’t right when a guy is throwing (that fast).”  This is curious in that usually shoulder injuries come with a drop in velocity.  While the starting rotation has been excellent upfront, the bullpen has found it difficult to complete the transaction, blowing 56 percent of save situations.  Zumaya will be replaced by the young fireballer Ryan Perry, who's erratic control has produced similar results to Zumaya (6.9 BB/9 vs 6.4 BB/9).  The Tigers, who have very little left as trade chips, have also inquired about Adam Dunn and Roy Halladay. 

 

Towards the end of Friday night's broadcast against the Rangers, Bert Blyleven made a curious comment stating that he believed that the Ballpark at Arlington was very much a "fair" field, favoring neither the pitchers nor the hitters, citing the dimensions to back his claim.  Blyleven, of course, is wrong.  Including the well-documented channel that propels flyballs to the seats, STATS records shows that 'heat equals hitting' and found that when the temperature was above 90, there were an average of 9.1 runs scored and 1.83 HRs per game.  When the temp drops below 60, the offense scores 8 runs with 1.40 HRs per game.  As stated numerous times, Arlington typically reaches triple-digits in the summertime.  According to ESPN.com's list of Park Factors, the Ballpark has been hitter-favorable every year (with the exception of 2007 when the PF was 0.979) and has averaged 6th of the 30 teams dating back to 2002.

 

Continuing on with Dick 'N Bert announcing tandem, in one of the numerous downtime, down-home blatherings, Dick Bremer revealed that he was curious to know where suburban Blaine, Minnesota (along with rural Nowthen and Sleepy Eye) got their town names.  Okay, I'll bite:

• Blaine, MN: Named after James G. Blaine, a senator and three-time presidential candidate in Maine, submitted by Moses Ripley in 1877 when the township separated from Anoka. 
• Nowthen, MN:  In 1876 the Burns Township needed an official post office name and the post master, Jim Hare, wrote to Washington requesting a name.  Because of Burnstown Township in Southern Minnesota the PO General asked Hare to come up with alternatives.  He dictated a letter with many candidates and finished it with "Nowthen".  Unbeknownst to the powers that be in Washington, Hare often started and finished his sentences with "Nowthen" and had no intention of naming the community as such (kind of like saying "Knowhatimsayin").  The name was chosen and stuck.
• Sleepy Eye, MN: Named after Chief Sleepy Eye who recommended the area of the Minnesota River now Mankato as a sustainable place for settlers away from floods. Sleepy Eye and his people settle just west of current-day New Ulm on a lake, later named "Sleepy Eye". 

 

Download your copy of the TwinsCentric 2009 Trade Deadline Primer Today!
 

Do the Twins need Lugo?

In ten days from now (or sooner) we'll find out what uniform shortstop Julio Lugo pulls on next.  Undoubtedly, with gaping holes in the Twins' middle infield, Lugo's name will arise as a potential suitor for the Twins offensive void up-the-middle. We addressed Lugo as a trade candidate in our Twinscentric Trade Deadline Primer mostly because of his availability but the consensus was his $9 million due this year (and in 2010) would keep the Twins from being viable trade partners.  That hurdle was cleared when the Red Sox dropped Lugo which made him fall into the Twins' price range.  The question is, do we even want Lugo pulling on our jersey?   

 

After signing a 4-year/$36M contract in 2006, the Red Sox very much expected the same results that Lugo produced in his six years split between Houston, Tampa Bay and Los Angeles in which he hit .277/.340/.402  (OPS+ 92) while providing solid defense.  What they got was a 31-year-old shortstop with rapidly degenerating skills who was unable to stay on the field.  Lugo had hit a collective .251/.319/.346 (OPS+ 71) supplying sub-par fielding in his three segmented seasons in Boston.  With the development of Jed Lowrie and Nick Green, Lugo became expensive roster dead-weight.

 

Plus/Minus | UZR/150	Julio Lugo	Brendan Harris	Nick Punto
2007	+1 |4.3	-19 | -13.1	+5 | 42.2
2008	-2 | -2.6	-9 | -10.3	+4 | 17.9
2009	-15 | -43.2	-4 | -2.0	-9 | -1.8

 

As noted, Lugo is a swiftly aging product.  In over 1,200 innings in 2007 at short, Lugo managed to be +1 run defensively.  In 2008 he dropped to -2 and this year he has been at -15 in two injury-riddled seasons.  Lugo's number are hardly indicative of an agile shortstop.  Twins fans might have become accustom to Brendan Harris's diving stops on balls many shortstops could probably backhand without much effort, but using the same metrics Harris had been -19 in Tampa in 2007, -9 in 2008 with the Twins and has been -4 this year.  Nick Punto, like Lugo, is another shortstop that has entered his thirties and has watch his plus/minus go from +5 to +4 to -9 in these past seasons.  The argument could be made that Harris, who is in the later half of his "prime years", is learning the position enough to compensate for his poor foot speed while Punto and Lugo's range is shrinking with age. 

 

What's more is that Lugo is bad at turning a doubleplay, much more so than the two current options:

 

DP Convert (2007-2009)	Percentage
Julio Lugo	102-of-205 (49.7%)
Brendan Harris	110-of-196 (56.1%)
Nick Punto	83-of-120 (69.1%)

 

As you can see, Punto has far less opportunities but has been able to convert a significantly higher percentage than either Harris or Lugo.  Overall, the Twins stand to benefit more if Punto is manning short of the three.   

 

Offensively, this trio is a grab bag of hot garbage so far in 2009.  Punto has managed to find a new rock bottom below his unsightly 2007 season with a .543 OPS.  Harris, meanwhile, has struck out in 20 of his last 83 plate appearances (24 pct) before the All Star break, apparently icing down Joe Mauer's bat in the on-deck circle with all his fans in the process.  Superficially, Lugo's numbers are the best of the three, but there is plenty to suggest that this isn't going to last.  Yes, his 23.3 percent line drive rate looks appealing but RJ Anderson at Fangraphs.com attributes that to an increase in the amount of "fliners" - the weak flyball/liner combination.  His .280 average is inflated by two crazy series against the Angels and Phillies in which Lugo went 11-for-21 (.523 average) with three doubles.  If you remove those games, Lugo has gone 20-for-88 (.227 average) with just one extra base hit. 

Punto, on the other hand, has every indication that his numbers will be going up.  Sure, it's hard to look at his offensive contributions so far without your gag reflexes kicking in, but try to fight the urge to spew chucks.  Punto been doing THE EXACT SAME THINGS as he was in 2008 when he hit a respectable .284/.344/.382 in 338 plate appearances.  He's almost matching his line drive output (20.1 vs 20.5) which usually indicates an average closer to .260.  Punto's biggest detriment is that too many of his groundballs are being converted into outs.  In 2008 he hit groundballs 44.7 percent of the time and held an average of .293 on those.  This season, he's hit them 43.7 percent of the time but is staring at an average of .127 well below the league average of .235. 

 

With the notion that Punto's second-half numbers have a strong probability of rising couple with the fact that he will provide similar if not better defense, there seems no need to pick up Julio Lugo.  The front office should pass.