Twins Targeting Cabrera?

At FoxSports.com, Jon Paul Morosi reported that the Twins have been fairly active in a pursuit for an infielder now that third baseman Joe Crede is also likely headed to the DL.  According to Morosi, the Twins "have already discussed shortstop Orlando Cabrera with the A's" among other possibilities including Pittsburgh's doubleplay combination, Jack Wilson and Freddy Sanchez, Toronto's Marco Scutero and even darkhorse candidate in the Royals' super utility man, Mark Teahan. 

 

Morosi continues by suggesting that of the four listed, shortstop Orlando Cabrera makes the most logical trade target for Minnesota given his position and his success as a number two hitter.  As Seth Stohs identified in his analysis of the Oakland Athletics for the TwinsCentric Trade Deadline Primer, Cabrera has a strong likelihood of relocating outside the Bay Area given his attractive one-year contract and A's GM Billy Beane's propensity for using veterans to wrangle in prospects.  Two weeks ago, we were apprehensive about the Twins potential of acquiring Cabrera, given his lowly .293 on-base percentage, but since the beginning of July, the right-handed batting Cabrera has hit .387/.410/.547 with two home runs in 17 games.  This sudden burst of production has drawn the attention of teams in need of a shortstop including the Mariners, Reds and Mets in addition to the Twins.  Always the master at leveraging his players in trades, Beane will undoubtedly look to use this inflated production to extract a fairly substantial prospect or two for Cabrera. 

 

Who would be foolish enough to bite?  Even with the increased productivity, make no mistakes about it, Cabrera's beginning to show his age.  Over the course of the past four seasons, Cabrera has seen his power and his speed numbers drop significantly, resulting in a strong indication that the two-time Gold Glove winner is weakening and slowing down:  

 

O. Cabrera	Isolated Power	Speed
2009	.087	3.2
2008	.089	4.6
2007	.096	5.1
2006	.122	5.7

 

Part of losing his strength/speed is that Cabrera is no longer pulling the ball with as much authority as he once did. Since turning 30 in 2006, Cabrera's ability to turn on a pitch has reduced. Naturally, scouting reports have picked up on his sluggish swing and have started to throw more fastballs to counter.

 

	Pull Pct	AVG on Pulled Pitches	Fastball Pct
2009	23	.378	66.2
2008	25	.340	64.8
2007	28	.479	60.5
2006	30	.438	60.7

 

As a predominately groundball hitter, Cabrera's average has been bolstered by muscling a few more groundballs through the infield, however in the past three seasons his batting average on grounders has declined from .306 in 2007 to .248 in 2008 to .235 this year. 

 

At 34 years old, Cabrera is no longer the spry shortstop that he was in Montreal.  While his Ultimate Zone Rating had been favorable the previous two seasons (13.1 and 8.9 in 2008 and 2007 respectively), this year his defense has worsened (-9.3).  According the Fielding Bible Plus/Minus system, Cabrera is having a horrendous time getting to balls to his right, misplaying 12 balls that an average shortstop would have been expected to make ranging towards third.  A shortstop whose shortcoming is ranging to his right may have been masked by Joe Crede's excellent ability to make plays to his left (+10 plays) but with Crede's impending DL stint looming, the Twins will be forced to use Brendan Harris, Brian Buscher or Danny Valencia, all of whom fall far short of Crede's defensive prowess.  By the Fielding Bible's accounting system, Cabreras's defense has cost the A's 16 runs.  The contact-heavy, groundball-inducing pitchers, like Nick Blackburn and Glen Perkins, would suffer from the loss of coverage on the left side of the infield. 

 

Considering all of this, would bringing in Cabrera benefit the Twins?  With the probability that his uptick in offensive output will come to an end (based upon his groundball tendencies and dilapidated power stroke) coupled with his problematic defense, the Twins should focus their energy and resources elsewhere. 

Blackburn Pitching in the Dead of Night

 

When your pitching style is better described as a dance routine, you have little room for missteps.  With ten days of rest between starts, Nick Blackburn was hardly the pirouetting marksman that we have been accustomed to seeing on the mound.  His normal groundball tendencies gave way to an all-out aerial attack including Daric Barton and Matt Holliday launching home runs number 11 and 12 against him this year.  When the smoke cleared and his night was all but over Blackburn's demeanor, like his pitches, was as flat as a week-old bottle of 7-Up as the A’s ransacked him for seven earned runs on thirteen hits in five innings of work. 

 

“(Pitching coach Rick Anderson) was telling me what it was between innings.” Blackburn told reporters in the clubhouse, “and I still couldn’t go out there and make the adjustments.”

This outing pales in comparison to what he was like just fifteen days ago against the Tigers.  Completing nine innings while scattering seven hits and striking out six, Blackburn compiled what we have come to expect as the norm -- pitches moving in every which direction and more speed changes than rush hour, as visually represented here: 

 

 

This assortment prevented hitters from sitting in one area, looking for one type of movement.  Just when you think he was going to run a pitch in on you, Blackburn's cutting one away and gets it off the end of the bat for an easy groundball out.  

 

Blackburn's night in Oakland, and his first post-All Star Break start, failed to capture that kind of magic.  His pitches lacked the run they did at the beginning of the month. 

 

 

 

 As you can see, the Athletics weren't forced to patrol the plate and strike zone for rogue cutters and runaway four-seamers like the Tigers were up against.  When you are throwing 86-90-mph with minimal movement, opposing batters can hone in on a location instead of covering an area from batter's box-to-batter's box. 

 

As pitcher that relies on touch and feel, Blackburn's ten days of rest probably was the culprit behind his inability to move his pitches like he normally does.  He had the opportunity to keeps this start from going from a headache instead of a full-blown migraine had the defense converted one or two more groundballs.  Consider this Oakland outing an anomaly but bear in mind as a contact-heavy pitcher, Blackburn's stats will fluctuate with his defense behind him. 

 

 

OtB Twins Notes: 07.20

As reported by Seth Stohs at sethspeaks.net on Sunday, the Twins have signed 39-year-old Mark Grudzielanek to a minor league contract and have assigned him to the GCL to re-acclimate the second baseman who had not played organized baseball in 2009.  After his three-years with the Royals between 2006-2008 where he hit .300/.339/.412, Grudzie was listed as a Type A free agent that, combined with his accelerated age, scared off potential suitors this past offseason.  A line drive hitter (23.6 percent since 2002), Grudzielanek makes a lot of contact, rarely walks, while providing quality at-bats against left-handed pitching (.302 BA in 667 PA since 2004) and has hit well out of the number two spot (.291 BA).  Defensively, his range has shrunk in those Kansas City years but his arm and soft hands ensures that he makes all of the outs he can get to.  He's old, recovering from a Ross Gload-induced ankle injury and has been away from the field for almost a year so there is a possibility that Grudz never fully rebounds to his league-average contributions.  Nevertheless, his acquisition signifies the front office's lack of confidence in their current second base options but for minimal risk, the Twins received a player of mid-level reward. 

 

More Twins Blogosphere Run-Down on Grudzielanek's signing:

• TwinsGeek
• Twinkie Town
• Aaron Gleeman
• Seth Stohs
• Nick Nelson
• Josh Johnson

 

Two of our main trade targets discussed in the TwinsCentric Trade Deadline Primer were traded on Sunday.  Tom Haudricourt reports that the Brewers have acquired Diamondbacks second baseman Felipe Lopez for two minor league prospects.  Lopez is due $3.5 million on his one-year contract and would have been an attractive solution for second base if the asking price been reasonable.  The Brewers, who had a need since losing Rickie Weeks for the season, surrendered LF Cole Gillespie (24 YR, AAA) and RHRP Roque Mercedes (22 YR, HA), neither of which are attractive merchandise.  Gillespie has demonstrated a very professional approach at the plate coaxing walks but has marginal power and iffy defense to compliment a weak arm.  Mercedes has the potential of being a solid reliever with 90-94 MPH fastball and plus-curve.  It's hard not to think that the Twins could not have matched this package. 

 

Meanwhile, the Baltimore Orioles managed to acquire RHRP Cla Meredith away from the Padres for the 31-year-old Oscar Salazar.  Meredith, a 26-year-old side-arming groundball machine, was under club control for the next three seasons while entering arbitration in 2010.  In his four seasons since 2006, Meredith has worked 237.1 innings with a 165-to-60 K-to-BB ratio and a 0.6 HR/9.  Salazar, on the other hand, has found limited time at the big league level because he does field any position exceptionally well but has hit .321/.394/.534 in his 127 PAs in Baltimore.  From the Padres perspective, this just makes no-freakin-sense.  In a player that they should have leveraged the hell out of in Meredith, they accepted less than beans but were desperate for utility help after Edgar Gonzalez was hit in the head with a pitch and hospitalized. 

 

Sid Hartman wrote that the Twins could have landed Pirates second baseman Freddy Sanchez if they were willing to relinquish Francisco Liriano. In spite of his 4-9 record and 5.47 ERA, Liriano is far too valuable to swap for one year of Sanchez.  His strikeout rate is strong (8.2 K/9) while his last seven starts leading up to the All Star break show that he is improving as he posted a 3.95 ERA with a very good 43/18 K/BB ratio in those 43 innings. "Every team tries to make deals, but they are tough to make," GM Bill Smith said. "The teams that are selling players are looking for a high return. We try and balance out the benefit of the short term vs. the long term."

 

Poor Brian O'Nora.  After an incident in 2008 in which the umpire was the recipient of Miguel Olivo's shattered bat to the head, O'Nora took one unfortunate hop on Saturday night right in the babymaker from  Justin Morneau's check-swing.  O'Nora staggered around for a bit before dropping to one knee and twice ran off the field during the game (to presumably throw up or piss blood).    

 

Kelsie Smith says that the Twins will start to curtail Delmon Young's playing time.  "Everybody's had their opportunity now to get themselves settled in," manager Ron Gardenhire said. "Now we're going to put the speed out there, which I like, and see what happens. And Delmon will be a part of it here and there." It might be a harsh reality for someone who hit .329/.333/.474 in 78 PAs dating between June 3rd and July 7th, but Young should be limited to the DH role against left-handed pitchers to reprieve Jason Kubel who is hitting a weak .194 (14-for-72) versus LHP. 

 

Any speculation that the White Sox might be in consideration for Roy Halladay seems fueled by an empty piece in the Chicago Sun-Times suggesting that the Sox are "mulling the price".  Chicago Tribune columnist Rick Morrissey fanned the flames by demanding the Sox land Halladay (a stark contrast to the Twin Cities mouthpieces).  Manager Ozzie Guillen dismisses this by saying ''To make that work would be a lot of money and a lot of players involved. It's nice to say we need this guy or that guy, but it's not easy [to make trades]. I don't think we'll give up half the organization for one guy.''  As we noted in the TwinsCentric Trade Deadline Primer (available for download at $9.95), the Sox are a hard team to read.  GM Kenny Williams pulls the trigger quite often on deals but mostly during the offseason.  His last big-splash deadline foray was landing Freddy Garcia from the Mariners in 2004.  Then again, William has re-acquired tradeable parts from the Braves in the Javier Vazquez trade and had tried to pry Jake Peavy away from the Padres earlier this year so the notion that he will stand pat is any one's guess.

 

Clinging to a two game lead over the Twins, the Tigers received some bad news this week: hard-throwing Joel Zumaya will need to go on the DL with a shoulder injury.  With Zumaya going on the 15-day DL for the Tigers, it exacerbates an already weak area for Detroit.  “He’s been throwing 100 m.p.h.,” manager Jim Leyland said. “It’s hard to assume something isn’t right when a guy is throwing (that fast).”  This is curious in that usually shoulder injuries come with a drop in velocity.  While the starting rotation has been excellent upfront, the bullpen has found it difficult to complete the transaction, blowing 56 percent of save situations.  Zumaya will be replaced by the young fireballer Ryan Perry, who's erratic control has produced similar results to Zumaya (6.9 BB/9 vs 6.4 BB/9).  The Tigers, who have very little left as trade chips, have also inquired about Adam Dunn and Roy Halladay. 

 

Towards the end of Friday night's broadcast against the Rangers, Bert Blyleven made a curious comment stating that he believed that the Ballpark at Arlington was very much a "fair" field, favoring neither the pitchers nor the hitters, citing the dimensions to back his claim.  Blyleven, of course, is wrong.  Including the well-documented channel that propels flyballs to the seats, STATS records shows that 'heat equals hitting' and found that when the temperature was above 90, there were an average of 9.1 runs scored and 1.83 HRs per game.  When the temp drops below 60, the offense scores 8 runs with 1.40 HRs per game.  As stated numerous times, Arlington typically reaches triple-digits in the summertime.  According to ESPN.com's list of Park Factors, the Ballpark has been hitter-favorable every year (with the exception of 2007 when the PF was 0.979) and has averaged 6th of the 30 teams dating back to 2002.

 

Continuing on with Dick 'N Bert announcing tandem, in one of the numerous downtime, down-home blatherings, Dick Bremer revealed that he was curious to know where suburban Blaine, Minnesota (along with rural Nowthen and Sleepy Eye) got their town names.  Okay, I'll bite:

• Blaine, MN: Named after James G. Blaine, a senator and three-time presidential candidate in Maine, submitted by Moses Ripley in 1877 when the township separated from Anoka. 
• Nowthen, MN:  In 1876 the Burns Township needed an official post office name and the post master, Jim Hare, wrote to Washington requesting a name.  Because of Burnstown Township in Southern Minnesota the PO General asked Hare to come up with alternatives.  He dictated a letter with many candidates and finished it with "Nowthen".  Unbeknownst to the powers that be in Washington, Hare often started and finished his sentences with "Nowthen" and had no intention of naming the community as such (kind of like saying "Knowhatimsayin").  The name was chosen and stuck.
• Sleepy Eye, MN: Named after Chief Sleepy Eye who recommended the area of the Minnesota River now Mankato as a sustainable place for settlers away from floods. Sleepy Eye and his people settle just west of current-day New Ulm on a lake, later named "Sleepy Eye". 

 

Download your copy of the TwinsCentric 2009 Trade Deadline Primer Today!
 

Do the Twins need Lugo?

In ten days from now (or sooner) we'll find out what uniform shortstop Julio Lugo pulls on next.  Undoubtedly, with gaping holes in the Twins' middle infield, Lugo's name will arise as a potential suitor for the Twins offensive void up-the-middle. We addressed Lugo as a trade candidate in our Twinscentric Trade Deadline Primer mostly because of his availability but the consensus was his $9 million due this year (and in 2010) would keep the Twins from being viable trade partners.  That hurdle was cleared when the Red Sox dropped Lugo which made him fall into the Twins' price range.  The question is, do we even want Lugo pulling on our jersey?   

 

After signing a 4-year/$36M contract in 2006, the Red Sox very much expected the same results that Lugo produced in his six years split between Houston, Tampa Bay and Los Angeles in which he hit .277/.340/.402  (OPS+ 92) while providing solid defense.  What they got was a 31-year-old shortstop with rapidly degenerating skills who was unable to stay on the field.  Lugo had hit a collective .251/.319/.346 (OPS+ 71) supplying sub-par fielding in his three segmented seasons in Boston.  With the development of Jed Lowrie and Nick Green, Lugo became expensive roster dead-weight.

 

Plus/Minus | UZR/150	Julio Lugo	Brendan Harris	Nick Punto
2007	+1 |4.3	-19 | -13.1	+5 | 42.2
2008	-2 | -2.6	-9 | -10.3	+4 | 17.9
2009	-15 | -43.2	-4 | -2.0	-9 | -1.8

 

As noted, Lugo is a swiftly aging product.  In over 1,200 innings in 2007 at short, Lugo managed to be +1 run defensively.  In 2008 he dropped to -2 and this year he has been at -15 in two injury-riddled seasons.  Lugo's number are hardly indicative of an agile shortstop.  Twins fans might have become accustom to Brendan Harris's diving stops on balls many shortstops could probably backhand without much effort, but using the same metrics Harris had been -19 in Tampa in 2007, -9 in 2008 with the Twins and has been -4 this year.  Nick Punto, like Lugo, is another shortstop that has entered his thirties and has watch his plus/minus go from +5 to +4 to -9 in these past seasons.  The argument could be made that Harris, who is in the later half of his "prime years", is learning the position enough to compensate for his poor foot speed while Punto and Lugo's range is shrinking with age. 

 

What's more is that Lugo is bad at turning a doubleplay, much more so than the two current options:

 

DP Convert (2007-2009)	Percentage
Julio Lugo	102-of-205 (49.7%)
Brendan Harris	110-of-196 (56.1%)
Nick Punto	83-of-120 (69.1%)

 

As you can see, Punto has far less opportunities but has been able to convert a significantly higher percentage than either Harris or Lugo.  Overall, the Twins stand to benefit more if Punto is manning short of the three.   

 

Offensively, this trio is a grab bag of hot garbage so far in 2009.  Punto has managed to find a new rock bottom below his unsightly 2007 season with a .543 OPS.  Harris, meanwhile, has struck out in 20 of his last 83 plate appearances (24 pct) before the All Star break, apparently icing down Joe Mauer's bat in the on-deck circle with all his fans in the process.  Superficially, Lugo's numbers are the best of the three, but there is plenty to suggest that this isn't going to last.  Yes, his 23.3 percent line drive rate looks appealing but RJ Anderson at Fangraphs.com attributes that to an increase in the amount of "fliners" - the weak flyball/liner combination.  His .280 average is inflated by two crazy series against the Angels and Phillies in which Lugo went 11-for-21 (.523 average) with three doubles.  If you remove those games, Lugo has gone 20-for-88 (.227 average) with just one extra base hit. 

Punto, on the other hand, has every indication that his numbers will be going up.  Sure, it's hard to look at his offensive contributions so far without your gag reflexes kicking in, but try to fight the urge to spew chucks.  Punto been doing THE EXACT SAME THINGS as he was in 2008 when he hit a respectable .284/.344/.382 in 338 plate appearances.  He's almost matching his line drive output (20.1 vs 20.5) which usually indicates an average closer to .260.  Punto's biggest detriment is that too many of his groundballs are being converted into outs.  In 2008 he hit groundballs 44.7 percent of the time and held an average of .293 on those.  This season, he's hit them 43.7 percent of the time but is staring at an average of .127 well below the league average of .235. 

 

With the notion that Punto's second-half numbers have a strong probability of rising couple with the fact that he will provide similar if not better defense, there seems no need to pick up Julio Lugo.  The front office should pass.   

First-Half Review: Three Signings

The Twins made three free agent signings this offseason addressing needs at third, the bullpen and short.  How have they fared so far?

 

Signing Joe Crede.

 

In my preseason baseball predictions at BaseballDigest.com, I had forewarned of a not so distant future in which Crede’s back would turned to cooked spaghetti and we would be watching a Brian Buscher/Brendan Harris combination as the Twins gutted out Crede’s $5 million contract.  Minus the respite, Crede has been able to provide above-average defense and power at third (relative to what we are used to seeing anyways).  According to John Dewan’s Fielding Bible, Crede is tied with the Angels’ Chone Figgins as the second-best defender at third with saving 16 runs.  This has been an invaluable addition to the left-side of the infield. 

 

His offense is sugarcoated with 14 home runs and the one walk-off grand slam against the Tigers on May 13^th has solidified Crede as a clutch-type despite supplying a marginal 0.80 WPA, 13^th overall among third basemen, but he still trails 17 other third basemen in OPS and 18 others according to wOBA.  One of his biggest offensive impediments is that he continues to elevate the ball.  Putting 55.2 percent of his batted balls into play as a fly ball has hindered his overall average (which is now at .234) but his has generated a few more line drives then he had in previous years. In January I noted that his transition to the Metrodome versus USCellular would cost him some of his home run totals due to the suppressive nature of the facility.  I calculated that Crede's AB-to-HR ratio would jump to near 26 AB/HR after putting together a season in which he hit a home run every 14 at-bats.  Fortunately, he did not regress that far, hitting a home run every 18 at-bats instead of the near-doubled prediction. 

 

Since he's already hit 272 plate appearances, Crede has triggered some of his incentive clauses in his contract and will be looking to get his full $7 million once he hits 525 plate appearances.  If he continues the pace that he is on, Crede will play 55 of the next 73 games and fall short of of the 525 PAs by 21.  For that sort of economic incentive, expect him to play through a few more aches then he would have in the first-half. 

Signing Luis Ayala.

 

I don't know if 'disaster' would be the appropriate label, but like the situation with the dikes in New Orleans, it could have been prevent had someone in the front office listened to the due diligence warnings.  The Twins' company line behind Ayala was that he was a groundball pitcher with a dominate sinking fastball.  Turns out, neither were true.  His groundball tendencies weren't converted into American currency once he left Montreal in 2004 and visual evidence at brooksbaseball.net revealed that his "sinker" really wasn't sinking all that much. 

 

For the most part Ayala was consistent with his 2008 season.  There were a few less line drives and a few more fly balls but at the crux of the matter he was a high-contact, low strikeout pitcher.  His ERA was whittled down to 4.18 from over 5.00 in 2008 thanks in part to a much improved 71 percent strand rate which was at 60.2 the year before.  Ultimately, the Twins grew disenfranchised by his hanging, spinning slider, one that was tattooed around the ballpark (4.45 wSL/C), and then release after Ayala demanded to be trade right-effin-now.

 

The Twins paid him a pro-rated of his $1.3 million contract to disappear.  The opening New Orleans reference is fitting considering that is where he wound up pitching for the AAA Marlin team after a desperate Florida organization signed him to help an injury-riddled bullpen.  The unfortunate part is that the Twins could not work out a deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates who had been inquiring about his availability.

Signing Nick Punto.

 

Most Twins fans probably view signing Punto to $8 million, two-year deal as the contractual equivalent of burning a pile of the same amount of money, yet let's not be too hasty in condemnation of this deal.   

 

Defensively, Punto's been atrocious.  This is the troublesome part considering his extension was based around his glove-work.  At minus-7 runs, his shortstop abilities rank 30th among his MLB counterparts.  After posting 40.3 and 42.2 UZR/150 in 2006 and 2007, his rating slipped to 17.9 in 2008 as he approached his age-30 season.  A lot of players see decline in their 30's put at age-31, Punto slipped to -1.8 UZR/150 this year, an indication that he is not defensively suitable for a demanding position like short.  His subsequent relocation to second base has been a big improvement, posting a UZR/150 of 13.

 

His offense has been the source of most of the criticism.   His lowly .543 OPS coupled with his diminutive .268 wOBA has the community screaming for a trade.  From the right-handed batter's box, Punto has struggled, batting .205 in 2009 after hitting .302 in 2008.  One of the biggest difference between this season and last is Punto's ability to pull the ball:

 

Punto's Pull Rate	2008	2009
RHB - Pull Pct	19.6	5.0
LHB - Pull Pct	20.9	17.5

 

If you look at his batted ball statistics and peripherals, you'll see some encouraging signs.  His line drive rate is near 20 percent while walk rate has jumped from 8 percent to 15 percent.  These would both be indications of a higher BA and OBP.  Punto's bad luck is epic; as the rest of the league is hitting .235 GB/.223 FB/.741 LD, Punto is batting .172 GB/.132 FB/.702 LD on his balls in play.  If his line drive and walk rates stay the same in the second-half, Punto has a chance of bring his batting average back up.  

 

 

 

TwinsCentric Trade Deadline Prime 2009's free preview available at TwinsCentric.com.