Do the Twins need Lugo?

In ten days from now (or sooner) we'll find out what uniform shortstop Julio Lugo pulls on next.  Undoubtedly, with gaping holes in the Twins' middle infield, Lugo's name will arise as a potential suitor for the Twins offensive void up-the-middle. We addressed Lugo as a trade candidate in our Twinscentric Trade Deadline Primer mostly because of his availability but the consensus was his $9 million due this year (and in 2010) would keep the Twins from being viable trade partners.  That hurdle was cleared when the Red Sox dropped Lugo which made him fall into the Twins' price range.  The question is, do we even want Lugo pulling on our jersey?   

 

After signing a 4-year/$36M contract in 2006, the Red Sox very much expected the same results that Lugo produced in his six years split between Houston, Tampa Bay and Los Angeles in which he hit .277/.340/.402  (OPS+ 92) while providing solid defense.  What they got was a 31-year-old shortstop with rapidly degenerating skills who was unable to stay on the field.  Lugo had hit a collective .251/.319/.346 (OPS+ 71) supplying sub-par fielding in his three segmented seasons in Boston.  With the development of Jed Lowrie and Nick Green, Lugo became expensive roster dead-weight.

 

Plus/Minus | UZR/150	Julio Lugo	Brendan Harris	Nick Punto
2007	+1 |4.3	-19 | -13.1	+5 | 42.2
2008	-2 | -2.6	-9 | -10.3	+4 | 17.9
2009	-15 | -43.2	-4 | -2.0	-9 | -1.8

 

As noted, Lugo is a swiftly aging product.  In over 1,200 innings in 2007 at short, Lugo managed to be +1 run defensively.  In 2008 he dropped to -2 and this year he has been at -15 in two injury-riddled seasons.  Lugo's number are hardly indicative of an agile shortstop.  Twins fans might have become accustom to Brendan Harris's diving stops on balls many shortstops could probably backhand without much effort, but using the same metrics Harris had been -19 in Tampa in 2007, -9 in 2008 with the Twins and has been -4 this year.  Nick Punto, like Lugo, is another shortstop that has entered his thirties and has watch his plus/minus go from +5 to +4 to -9 in these past seasons.  The argument could be made that Harris, who is in the later half of his "prime years", is learning the position enough to compensate for his poor foot speed while Punto and Lugo's range is shrinking with age. 

 

What's more is that Lugo is bad at turning a doubleplay, much more so than the two current options:

 

DP Convert (2007-2009)	Percentage
Julio Lugo	102-of-205 (49.7%)
Brendan Harris	110-of-196 (56.1%)
Nick Punto	83-of-120 (69.1%)

 

As you can see, Punto has far less opportunities but has been able to convert a significantly higher percentage than either Harris or Lugo.  Overall, the Twins stand to benefit more if Punto is manning short of the three.   

 

Offensively, this trio is a grab bag of hot garbage so far in 2009.  Punto has managed to find a new rock bottom below his unsightly 2007 season with a .543 OPS.  Harris, meanwhile, has struck out in 20 of his last 83 plate appearances (24 pct) before the All Star break, apparently icing down Joe Mauer's bat in the on-deck circle with all his fans in the process.  Superficially, Lugo's numbers are the best of the three, but there is plenty to suggest that this isn't going to last.  Yes, his 23.3 percent line drive rate looks appealing but RJ Anderson at Fangraphs.com attributes that to an increase in the amount of "fliners" - the weak flyball/liner combination.  His .280 average is inflated by two crazy series against the Angels and Phillies in which Lugo went 11-for-21 (.523 average) with three doubles.  If you remove those games, Lugo has gone 20-for-88 (.227 average) with just one extra base hit. 

Punto, on the other hand, has every indication that his numbers will be going up.  Sure, it's hard to look at his offensive contributions so far without your gag reflexes kicking in, but try to fight the urge to spew chucks.  Punto been doing THE EXACT SAME THINGS as he was in 2008 when he hit a respectable .284/.344/.382 in 338 plate appearances.  He's almost matching his line drive output (20.1 vs 20.5) which usually indicates an average closer to .260.  Punto's biggest detriment is that too many of his groundballs are being converted into outs.  In 2008 he hit groundballs 44.7 percent of the time and held an average of .293 on those.  This season, he's hit them 43.7 percent of the time but is staring at an average of .127 well below the league average of .235. 

 

With the notion that Punto's second-half numbers have a strong probability of rising couple with the fact that he will provide similar if not better defense, there seems no need to pick up Julio Lugo.  The front office should pass.   

First-Half Review: Three Signings

The Twins made three free agent signings this offseason addressing needs at third, the bullpen and short.  How have they fared so far?

 

Signing Joe Crede.

 

In my preseason baseball predictions at BaseballDigest.com, I had forewarned of a not so distant future in which Crede’s back would turned to cooked spaghetti and we would be watching a Brian Buscher/Brendan Harris combination as the Twins gutted out Crede’s $5 million contract.  Minus the respite, Crede has been able to provide above-average defense and power at third (relative to what we are used to seeing anyways).  According to John Dewan’s Fielding Bible, Crede is tied with the Angels’ Chone Figgins as the second-best defender at third with saving 16 runs.  This has been an invaluable addition to the left-side of the infield. 

 

His offense is sugarcoated with 14 home runs and the one walk-off grand slam against the Tigers on May 13^th has solidified Crede as a clutch-type despite supplying a marginal 0.80 WPA, 13^th overall among third basemen, but he still trails 17 other third basemen in OPS and 18 others according to wOBA.  One of his biggest offensive impediments is that he continues to elevate the ball.  Putting 55.2 percent of his batted balls into play as a fly ball has hindered his overall average (which is now at .234) but his has generated a few more line drives then he had in previous years. In January I noted that his transition to the Metrodome versus USCellular would cost him some of his home run totals due to the suppressive nature of the facility.  I calculated that Crede's AB-to-HR ratio would jump to near 26 AB/HR after putting together a season in which he hit a home run every 14 at-bats.  Fortunately, he did not regress that far, hitting a home run every 18 at-bats instead of the near-doubled prediction. 

 

Since he's already hit 272 plate appearances, Crede has triggered some of his incentive clauses in his contract and will be looking to get his full $7 million once he hits 525 plate appearances.  If he continues the pace that he is on, Crede will play 55 of the next 73 games and fall short of of the 525 PAs by 21.  For that sort of economic incentive, expect him to play through a few more aches then he would have in the first-half. 

Signing Luis Ayala.

 

I don't know if 'disaster' would be the appropriate label, but like the situation with the dikes in New Orleans, it could have been prevent had someone in the front office listened to the due diligence warnings.  The Twins' company line behind Ayala was that he was a groundball pitcher with a dominate sinking fastball.  Turns out, neither were true.  His groundball tendencies weren't converted into American currency once he left Montreal in 2004 and visual evidence at brooksbaseball.net revealed that his "sinker" really wasn't sinking all that much. 

 

For the most part Ayala was consistent with his 2008 season.  There were a few less line drives and a few more fly balls but at the crux of the matter he was a high-contact, low strikeout pitcher.  His ERA was whittled down to 4.18 from over 5.00 in 2008 thanks in part to a much improved 71 percent strand rate which was at 60.2 the year before.  Ultimately, the Twins grew disenfranchised by his hanging, spinning slider, one that was tattooed around the ballpark (4.45 wSL/C), and then release after Ayala demanded to be trade right-effin-now.

 

The Twins paid him a pro-rated of his $1.3 million contract to disappear.  The opening New Orleans reference is fitting considering that is where he wound up pitching for the AAA Marlin team after a desperate Florida organization signed him to help an injury-riddled bullpen.  The unfortunate part is that the Twins could not work out a deal with the Pittsburgh Pirates who had been inquiring about his availability.

Signing Nick Punto.

 

Most Twins fans probably view signing Punto to $8 million, two-year deal as the contractual equivalent of burning a pile of the same amount of money, yet let's not be too hasty in condemnation of this deal.   

 

Defensively, Punto's been atrocious.  This is the troublesome part considering his extension was based around his glove-work.  At minus-7 runs, his shortstop abilities rank 30th among his MLB counterparts.  After posting 40.3 and 42.2 UZR/150 in 2006 and 2007, his rating slipped to 17.9 in 2008 as he approached his age-30 season.  A lot of players see decline in their 30's put at age-31, Punto slipped to -1.8 UZR/150 this year, an indication that he is not defensively suitable for a demanding position like short.  His subsequent relocation to second base has been a big improvement, posting a UZR/150 of 13.

 

His offense has been the source of most of the criticism.   His lowly .543 OPS coupled with his diminutive .268 wOBA has the community screaming for a trade.  From the right-handed batter's box, Punto has struggled, batting .205 in 2009 after hitting .302 in 2008.  One of the biggest difference between this season and last is Punto's ability to pull the ball:

 

Punto's Pull Rate	2008	2009
RHB - Pull Pct	19.6	5.0
LHB - Pull Pct	20.9	17.5

 

If you look at his batted ball statistics and peripherals, you'll see some encouraging signs.  His line drive rate is near 20 percent while walk rate has jumped from 8 percent to 15 percent.  These would both be indications of a higher BA and OBP.  Punto's bad luck is epic; as the rest of the league is hitting .235 GB/.223 FB/.741 LD, Punto is batting .172 GB/.132 FB/.702 LD on his balls in play.  If his line drive and walk rates stay the same in the second-half, Punto has a chance of bring his batting average back up.  

 

 

 

TwinsCentric Trade Deadline Prime 2009's free preview available at TwinsCentric.com. 

Introducing the TwinsCentric Trade Deadline Primer 2009

 

The TwinsCentric Trade Deadline Primer (2009 Edition) is available for purchase at E-junkie.com.   

 

After weeks of culling over the rosters and sifting through minor league systems for teams throughout baseball, John Bonnes (TwinsGeek.com), Seth Stohs (SethSpeaks.net), Nick Nelson (NicksTwinsBlog.com) and I are proud to officially announce the release of the only document that provides in-depth analysis and unmatched commentary on the forthcoming trade deadline from the prospective of the Minnesota Twins.  We have centralized all information necessary to prepare yourself as a Twins fan for the chaotic nature of the deadline. 

 

Inside this 65-page, 30,000-plus word reference book, you will find a detailed look at the Twins four main areas (Infield, Outfield, Starting Pitching and the Bullpen) from the majors on down.  We have identified the needs and where the Twins have excess.  Each section provides keen insight and observations.  We have inventoried all potential Buyers and Sellers and have divvyed up there possible trading chips – outlining how each player might impact the Twins in both the second-half of 2009 and beyond.  Furthermore, we have provided an up-to-date report on the Twins’ farm system and an extensive outlook for the organization’s payroll for the next two years. 

 

This is a collaborative effort of some of the finest, most proficient writers in the Twins community.

I cannot say enough good things about the consummate professionals in John Bonnes, Nick Nelson and Seth Stohs. 

 

John is one of the original Twins bloggers (in fact, some of his earliest posts are still archived on the cave walls) and has been one of the biggest catalysts for the ever-changing blogging community.  His efforts at GameDay have grown from an outside selling on the street-corner across the way from the Metrodome to being published along with the Twins official scorecards that are still written by bloggers today.  Without his industry pioneering and, let’s face it, cajones for taking on the Minnesota Twins, some of the opportunities for us writers would not exist. 

 

Nick has been supplying analysis and commentary for the Twins since 2005.  His wit and words on the team are unrivaled. As the only J-school trained writer among us, his site is a pleasure to read every morning. 

 

Seth has provided unparalleled coverage of the Twins’ system since 2003, producing interviews of Twins prospects from the GCL to Rochester, giving fans an early introduction to the players that may one day be in Minnesota.  This is an unbelievable service.  While the local media does a decent job covering the current on-field product, there is a void that exists when it comes to the prospects.  Seth has dedicated millions of words to ensuring that Twins fans are receiving all the information that isn’t carried by the two local papers.

 

For those that continue to stop by day-after-day, week-after-week for entertainment and insight, we encourage you to purchase the Trade Deadline Primer so that we can offer special content, not available anywhere else. 

  

If you still have hesitations regarding the e-book, feel free to email me (TwinsFanc1981@gmail.com) or all of us (Twinscentric@gmail.com) and we will send you a five-page PDF free sample to review in addition to offering your money back if you feel unsatisfied after your purchase.  It is a nominal fee at $9.95 – the price of buying us a pitcher of beer as a way of saying thanks. 

 

Again, thanks for the support and readership over the past few years. 

 

 

 

Changes to Lineup Needed

I would rather not be revisiting this topic year it seems that Ron Gardenhire has forgotten how to construct the most efficient lineup possible.  The lineup needs yet another overhaul.

 

The Twins lineup structure can be divided into four distinct epochs during the 2009 season.   At the onset, the group that Gardenhire penciled in most frequently was known otherwise as the Mauer's Injured So No One Is Paying Any Attention Anyways Might As Well Have Casilla Batting Second (April 6th-April 29th), then there was the Yeah! Joe's Back So He'll Batting Third With - Egad - Tolbert Batting Second But Whatever, JOE'S BACK! (April 30th-May 20th), next there is the Enlightened Manager Has Epiphany, Mauer Batting Second With Morneau Batting Third (May 21st-June 20th), finally comes the present day and the Mauer's Back Batting Third Again Because of Interleague Schedule, Harris Will Suffice Batting Second (June 21st-Present).
 

1) Mauer's Injured So No One Is Paying Any Attention Anyways Might As Well Have Casilla Batting Second

 

Without his favorite number three hitter available, Gardenhire began the season with what he felt was the next best hitter on the team absent Joe Mauer.  Michael Cuddyer.  That experiment lasted the first four games before Justin Morneau was advanced to the number three slot where he remained until Mauer's return in May.  In that time frame, the Twins hit .262 AVG/.328 OBP/.386 SLG while averaging 4.2 runs per game and coaxing just 3.1 walks.  The team when 11-11 (.500) but managed to stay .5 games out of first place. 

 

During this time, Alexi Casilla was slotted to be the number two hitter dispite hitting .174/.230/.217 in this 22 games.  Gardenhire stubbornly refused to acknowledge his faults. 

 

"We need [Casilla] up there," Gardenhire told reporters prior to the April 29th game against the Rays, "It's a great fit. I mean, you can stick everyone who's swinging bad at the bottom, but that doesn't stretch out your lineup. What we need is Lexi to get going offensively, use his speed, bunt the ball every once in a while. He hasn't done that at all because he's been working on his swing."

2) Yeah! Joe's Back So He'll Bat Third With - Egad - Tolbert Batting Second But Whatever, JOE'S BACK!

 

Joe returned to the Dome on May 1st and immediately crushed the ball over the left field wall for his first home run of the year.  There was so much jubilation that no one paid attention to the fact that Casilla was moved back up from his day in the ninth spot to number two again only to finish Joe's homecoming 0-for-3.  Casilla would receive three more starts (all while batting second and going 2-for-12) before being send down to work on his glove and was replaced with facsimile of Matt Tolbert.  In the next nine games while following Span, Tolbert would hit .171/.268/.229. 

 

The team hardly even noticed the automatic out batting second as Mauer (7 HRs, .750 SLG) and Morneau (7 HRs, .739 SLG) carried the offense to a .280 AVG/.365 OBP/.445 SLG ten days while scoring 5.4 runs per game (again, thanks M&M boys long ball abilities) and masking the rotting stench emitting from the second spot in the order.  Even though they scored nearly 5.4 runs per game, the team went 7-12 (.368) during this stretch.

3) Enlightened Manager Has Epiphany, Mauer Batting Second With Morneau Batting Third

 

At some point, Gardenhire must have realized that Mauer and Morneau could not continue to pace of hitting 0.9 home runs per game as the season progressed.  From May 21 through 6/20, Gardenhire implemented a lineup that feature Joe Mauer batting second.  The Twins average five runs per game and win 17 of 29 (.586).  With Mauer in the two spot, they have a hitter that goes .415/.463/.712 in this duration.  The team as a whole hits .281/.348/.456.  There is much rejoicing in Twinsville. 

4) Mauer's Back Batting Third Again Because of Interleague Schedule Or Something, Harris Will Suffice Batting Second

 

Wuh?  How did this happen?  Things were going so good.  Mauer was shifted back to third, Morneau back to cleanup.  Brendan Harris, the latest light hitting infielder de jour, is beckoned for the number two slot and proceeds to hit .188/.188/.233.  That means in 82 percent of his plate appearance, Harris made an out. While the rest of his number drop, Mauer still manages to get on base in nearly 40 percent of his plate appearances.  The Twins win eight out of 14 but have scored just 4.2 runs per game.   

 

The solution to the woes is to move Harris back down in the order where his bat is more potent and push the rest of the lineup forward.  In addition to getting Mauer's on-base and contact bat directly behind lead-off hitter Denard Span, it also moves Justin Morneau's bat up one slot guaranteeing him an at-bat in the first inning.  Legendary manager Earl Weaver wrote in his book "Weaver on Strategy" that he would intentionally cram his Orioles lineups was that he would place his most powerful hitter third to ensure a first inning at-bat.  This he said, had the ability to change the game immediately.  

 

With that in mind, Gardenhire needs to write in Span-Mauer-Morneau as the first three batters in every game. 

OtB Twins Notes: 07.06.09

Twins have placed Kevin Slowey on the DL with a strained right wrist injury.  After the game Slowey told the media that "I think more than anything it's concerning because it's in my right wrist. It's in a pretty significant area, and we'll look at it Monday and go from that. It was something that affected how I held onto the ball. It was very uncomfortable." According to Brooksbaseball.net the wrist injury appeared to affect the horizontal break on his slider.  Here is a graph of his June 12th outing against the Cubs where he struck out ten, this one is of his most recent start on July 3rd (his June 27th three inning start in St Louis shares the same movement).  As you can see, there is a foot difference in the break between a healthy Slowey and an injured Slowey.   Despite claiming his wrist was not acting up on his previous start against the Cardinals, Slowey was torched by opponents for a slugging percentage above .800 in those six innings.

 

Patrick Reusse wrote yet another inflammatory column directed at bloggers and those who analyze non-traditional statistics.  In his most recent column, Reusse actually quote a real, live blogger who had pounded out a piece following the Matt Joyce-for-Edwin Jackson trade before the season.  The blogger in question, Matt Wallace of Take 75 North, highlighted the fact that Jackson's 4.88 FIP (which is an acronym for Fielding Independent Pitching) was strikingly similar to Nate Robertson.  Reusse wrote "[a]pparently, FIP stands for Fudge I'm Pathetic among bloggers, since Joyce has played 11 games for the Rays this season and again is back in Durham, N.C."  Admittedly, your average fan is not considering what makes the best measurement for a pitcher's performance, but it doesn't mean that the local media coverage has to cater to the lowest common denominator either.  The FIP formula was contrived by Tom Tango who is now a consultant for the Seattle Mariners thanks to his groundbreaking research in baseball.

 

At the same newspaper, Joe Christensen learned how to use Fangraphs.com data, which is good...even if he failed to use it properly. Christensen notes the curiosity that is Cleveland's Kerry Wood, writing how his fastball's velocity is up from 94.8 a year ago to 95.3 this season.  This is an interesting sidebar but it doesn't address Wood's deficiency at all. The real mystery, however, is why his slider that was so vicious with the Cubs last year, has transformed into a hybrid slider-cutter thrown at a much harder velocity (at 89 mph instead of 82 a year ago).  Instead of a sweeping slider (seen in graph form here) it is a much flatter pitch with far less movement (seen here).  Because of this, Wood has seen his chases outside of the zone drop significantly from 31.3 percent in 2008 to just 17.7 in 2009.  The real question then is whether this is an injury-drive or a management-driven adjustment to his pitch.  The later would be of relevance as former Twin Carl Willis is currently the pitching coach for the Indians.   

 

After making some noise in the derby to sign the Dominican super-prospect shortstop Miguel Angel Sanos, the Twins fell to third in the courtship behind the Pirates and Orioles but netted 16-year-old German uber-prospect (yes, because it is German, it is okay to use 'uber' here) outfielder Max Kepler-Rozycki.  According to Baseball America, one scout told the outfit that "Kepler is the toolsiest kid we’ve ever had in Europe.  No question."  Random thought: Is "toolsiest kid in Europe" kind of like being the tallest midget?

 

The Twins field staff have been emitting positive quotes about Delmon Young.  "He's actually trying different things right now, getting a little more balance in his stance, rather than leaning so far forward," manager Ron Gardenhire said. "We've been talking to him about driving the ball. He's just making the adjustments, and he's been doing it."  On June 7th, I noted the same thing saying that Young's offensive woes is related to a "loading problem where his weight is shifted too far on his front foot".  In 35 games prior to June 7th, Young was batting .233/.273/.267.  In the most recent 16 games since, Young is hitting .323/.328/.500. I'm not saying, I'm just saying.  "He got into some bad habits, and then you have to talk him out of it. You can't just say do this or you're out," Gardenhire said. "It's not that way; it's not that easy. So, it's been a process. I think there's a little more trust there now, and not just with the coaching staff, with the players, everybody's talking to him, and he's trying. You can really see it."

 

He's going to get a lot of attention given his power-arm status (something that is blood in the water for the Yankees), but David Aardsma should be hot on the trade market.  With the Mariners deep out of the AL West, Aardsma has been dominating at the back-end of the game.  In his last 13 innings of work, he's struck out 22, walked four and allowed just seven hits.  Finangling him from Seattle will be difficult but the dividends for the Twins in the second-half would be huge. 

 

The Florida Marlins nabbed Luis Ayala and have shipped him down to AAA New Orleans.  In spite of having one of the league's better bullpens statistically, the Fish have are losing relievers like flies in the Dome's ceiling. They have just lost Chris Leroux, forcing them to sign Brandon Donnelly, after already having closer Matt Lindstrom and set-up man Kiko Calero on the 15-day DL.  Desperation is a stinky cologne. 

 

David Dorsey provides us with how Twins scout Bill Corrigan stumbled upon current Miracle outfielder Ben Revere in Lexington, KY.  While Revere's power numbers are down from his first two seasons, he's still getting on base at a .377 clip and has shaved down his strikeout rate.  Since advancing to HA Fort Myers, Revere has had less luck against left-handed pitchers, slugging .318 in 66 ABs, down from .479 a year ago.

 

You get drafted by the Minnesota Twins in the 10th round this past June and then your team wins the College World Series.  What more could you ask for if you are Blake Dean?   How about getting Blake Dean Day in your hometown of Crestview, Florida?  Done and done.

 

Adam Peterson puts together an excellent analytical look at RBIs over at Twinkie Town.

 

Judd Spicer takes a moment to defuse the Detroit Tigers. 

 

The New York Times has a great retrospective on the infamous Disco Demolition promotion. 

 

Sometimes I can't tell if this headline is baseball or Viagra related.