OtB Twins Notes (06.22.09)

It seems that Joe Mauer gave Jason Kubel the flu.  Kubel left in the third inning of Sunday's game vomiting but is expected to be okay for the Milwaukee series starting on Tuesday.    

 

Tom Powers is convinced that Luis Ayala might be the first to be jettisoned from the roster in 2009.  Ayala had been a pitcher that has seen various results - depending on his locale.  In 19.1 innings of work at the Dome, he has posted a 8/6 K/BB ratio with a .370 batting average against.  Away from Minneapolis, Ayala has thrown 13 innings with a 13/2 K/BB ratio and a .186 batting average against.  Ayala could be very useful over the course of the next nine games while traveling to Milwaukee, St. Louis and Kansas City. 

 

You love this game, admit it:

Month of June	Innings	K/BB	BAVG	ERA	Leverage Index
Player A	4.1	4/3	.368	14.54	0.59
Player B	9.2	8/1	.243	3.72	0.69

 

In order to move Jesse Crain down to Rochester, the Twins were forced into a roster move.  The sacrificial lamb in this case was Twin Cities native Ben Hendrickson announces Jim Mandelaro.  Hendrickson's tenure in the Twins organization where he pitched in six games in relief and worked 10.2 innings while walking nine and striking out nine.  After posting a 7.84 ERA, the Twins no longer had use for him in the bullpen.

 

When it comes to bullpen help from within the system Joe Christensen reiterated what general manager Bill Smith said on the Twins' pre-game show on AM1500 which is that the team could give some serious consideration to right-hander Bobby Keppel.  The 27-year-old has worked in 23 games with three starts at Rochester, throwing 55 innings while posting a pedestrian 28/13 K/BB.  Like Ayala, Keppel is a big contact pitcher and has been getting a ton of groundballs (55 percent) and has plenty of outs converted behind him (.158 average on GB).  Smith will be in Rochester this week to assess the AAA stock and could make a decision quickly as Keppel's contract has an opt-out clause if he does not make the big league team by July 1st.

 

When you hear about how good Alexi Casilla's numbers are at the plate in Rochester, just write it down and forget it.  Casilla's mental lapses continue to carry on in the minors.  Kelsie Smith reports that Casilla made yet another throwing error on a routine play at second. "That's the part I don't like to hear, but he's swinging the bat better," Manager Ron Gardenhire said. "I like to see him catching all the balls and not hear the routine error thing."  With Nick Punto hitting .450 (9-for-20) and hitting line drives at an unsustainable 38 percent clip since assuming second base, Gardenhire has little incentive to move Casilla back to the Twin Cities...that is until Punto crushed his ribs on a needless head-first slide into first base. 

 

I don't weigh in on performance-enhancing drugs or any of the players that so choose to partake in the experience because to me there is so much grey area.  Denard Span, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer are all recipients of LASIK eye surgery.  Did that enhance their performances?   Not really, its such a commonplace and, not to mention, legal thing that no one really bats an eyelash.  This circumstance is obviously not Jose Canseco injecting Mark McGwire in his buttock in a bathroom stall but Cuddyer's recent cortisone shot to his index finger is another such example of an acceptable use of a steroid.  According to Tom Power's column last week, receiving a shot of cortisone isn't like your average flu shot.  It's like the doctor inserting a metal McDonald's drinking straw into your finger.  Had Cuddyer not taken the cortisone, he would have been certain to miss more games. It is strange how baseball says that you can use this one under this condition but all others are off the table. (Here's Wade Boggs with the opposite stance on the War of Drugs, by the way.  Fueled by High Life.)

 

(I'm not sure what I just said but I immediately regret the Canseco/McGwire buttock thing.)

 

Jayson Stark of ESPN.com wrote that the Twins have been telling other teams that Delmon Young is "exceptionally available".  In a recent trip to the Twins Pro Shop in Apple Valley, I took note that the retailer was selling street banners that hung around the Plaza from the 2008 season that included ex-Twins Mike Lamb, Adam Everett, Craig Monroe and one current Twin: Delmon Young.  You decide whether this is sheer coincidence or an ominous sign that Young's days in Minnesota are numbered.

 

Twinkie Town suggests that Pirates' Freddy Sanchez might be the solution to the Twins production at second base.  At this point, Tommy Herr would be an upgrade at two. 

 

It did not work as intended by Bill James when he and Theo Epstein introduced a disasterous closer-by-committee to the Red Sox bullpen in 2003, nevertheless the Rochester Red Wings are implementing the same theory at AAA.  Since closer Sean Henn was called up to Minnesota, the Red Wings have been left without a closer so at the end of the games manager Stan Cliburn will use Tim Lahey, Rob Delaney or Juan Morillo to save games at different times says Jim Mandelaro.

 

Fort Myer Miracle Chris Parmelee, one of the rare heavy artillery hitters in the Twins organization, won the FSL All Star Game Home Run Derby contest. 

 

As predicted, the Twins 27th round draft pick, Erik Decker, will remain a Gopher and focus on the gridiron rather than the diamond.

 

Lastly, I'm Twitting.  Follow me if you think that might me be the kind of thing that you think that you are in to.

Player A = Juan Cruz, Player B = Luis Ayala 

 

 

The Development of Nick Blackburn

Nick Blackburn’s nine inning gem yesterday afternoon was a thing of beauty.  I’ve said it before that I believe Blackburn’s attributes make him a prime candidate to not withstand the ebb and flow of defensive changes.  To be sure, by retiring just 10 percent of batters through a strikeout, Blackburn has placed the majority of his success in the hands of his surrounding fielders.  Rarely are pitchers successful for a long period of time without the ability to strikeout batters, eventually hitters find seams in the defense.  But let’s put that logic aside for a moment and just celebrate Blackburn for what he is, here and now.

 

Through his first 14 starts, Blackburn has managed to win six games and lose just two, making his .750% winning percentage in the top ten of AL starters, not to mention that his 3.09 ERA is within the top eight as well.  Since his May 10^th start Blackburn has had a 1.85 ERA yet because of offensive shortcomings or bullpen implosions, the Twins have gone just 4-4 in those eight starts.  It is clear that Blackburn’s performance is contingent of avoiding hard contact.  His balls in play has witnessed a precipitous drop in the amount of line drives from last season (falling from 20.9% in ’08 to 16.0% in ’09) in addition to an ample drop in the amount of flyballs leaving the yard (10% in ’08 versus 5.9% in ’09).  Because of this, Blackburn’s slugging percentage against has also subsided (from .441 a year ago to .384 this year). 

 

Retiring hitters the first time through the order has also been are area of vast improvement for the Oklahoman.  In 132 match-ups in 2009, Blackburn has allowed no home runs while keeping the wolves at bay through a .207/.265/.314 batting line.  Compare that to last season when he allowed 10 home runs and a .303/.337/.458 batting line in 301 plate appearances. 

 

Clearly the area in which he has improved the most is getting outs by way of groundballs.  As his groundball percentage has increased (from 44.9% to 46.9%), Blackburn has seen more of them converted to outs and shaved points off of his batting average against on grounders (from .259 in ’08 to .205 in ‘09).  The Joe Crede acquisition might be most beneficial to this development.  In John Dewan’s Stat of the Week column, Dewan highlighted the top defensive fielders by looking at their “runs saved” figures that Crede’s 8 runs saved is tied for 5^th and the third-highest among third basemen (Seattle’s Adrian Beltre and Washington’s Ryan Zimmerman have saved 9 apiece).  Include Crede in the infield and the Twins have a fairly stalwart defense.

 

Another aspect that has led to success is his variety of pitches that are thrown consistently for strikes.  During yesterday’s game, Pirate Eric Hinske told catcher Mike Redmond that the pitch he had hit was the first one of the dozen he had seen that was the least bit hittable.  Looking at Blackburn’s pitch assortment on brooksbaseball.net, you can see the collection of pitches that Blackburn throws and the different breaks associated with each pitch.

 

Look at the motion of each pitch.  Blackburn has three distinctly pitches that bend into right-handed batters and away from lefties (four-seam, two-seam and changeup) and three others that run in on left-handed batters and away from righties (cutter, slider, curve). 

 

Here's another thing that makes his slider (1.18 wSL/C) and his curve (0.62 wCV/C) particularly effective is that Blackburn's pitch repertoire causes plenty of issues of recognition.  Where the slider is thrown at similar velocity to his fastballs, unlike the two-or-four seamer it has a definite break away from right-handed bats.  As opposing hitters are focusing on pitches that are running in on their hands, Blackburn drops a slider that runs away.  The curveball has a different effect as it is throw with less movement then "better" curves, yet with a 15-mph difference in velocity, making it difficult for hitters to keep their weight back. 

 

There are indicators in Blackburn's numbers that suggest that the second-half of the season will not go as smoothly as the first.  Consider that his 5.9 home run-to-flyballs ratio is well below the league average is a sign that it is possible that a few more will eventually sneak over the fence.  Likewise, his batting average on groundballs might also creep up now that Brendan Harris, a shortstop with less range than Nick Punto, is manning the position.  Even still, Blackburn has made it though roughly 50% of his season's starts without an severe damage and has improved considerable in a lot of areas.

Crain optioned to Rochester. What was wrong?

When Jesse Crain rose to prominence in the Twins bullpen in 2005, the 23-year-old right-hander had vultured 12 wins while maintaining a 2.71 ERA despite walking more than he struck out (29/25 BB/K) in 79.2 innings of work also finishing eighth on the AL Rookie of the Year ballot.  The curious thing about Crain's success is that it was based entirely on the fielders behind him.  Thanks to a high percentage of groundballs (46.9 percent) Crain carried a lowly .216 batting average on balls in play helping him keep his ERA sub-3.00 even though he was striking out an underwhelming 2.8 batters per nine innings. 

 

Crain's biggest weakness was his approach to left-handed batters.  For his pitch selection, Crain used his 93.1-mph fastball (69 pct) and a 73.7-mph curveball (13 pct) when attacking lefties that year. In 130 match-ups against opposed handed batters, Crain walked 15 while striking out 10 but once again managed to get by on avoiding big contact (.212 babip vs LHB).  Even though his strikeout totals were extremely low, Crain's velocity difference (19.4-mph on average) kept hitters at bay and induced a ton of groundballs. 

 

The following season, Crain's altered his pitch repertoire, specifically to left-handed batters.  Instead of his fastball-curve combination that he had used in 2005, the 24-year-old Crain used his now 94.3-mph fastball (75 pct) and his 86.9-mph slider (14 pct).  In 116 plate appearances, Crain's adjustments lead to more strikeouts and fewer walks (21/8 K/BB) but decrease in velocity difference (now at 7.4-mph) seemed to allow lefties to make better contact as their slugging percentage against rose 53 points.  Overall, Crain's numbers were head and shoulder's better as he was now striking out 7.0 batters per nine innings and appearing to be the closer-in-training the Twins had projected in his developmental days.

 

After pitching consecutive season of more than 75 innings each and 156.1 combined, Crain's shoulder broke down and needed repair in 2007.  Upon his return to the bullpen in 2008, Crain once again changed his approach to left-handed batters, throwing them a hearty dose of fastballs (70 pct) with a fairly even amount of sliders (13 pct) and curveballs (15 pct).  Even still, Crain appeared to have lefties under control (not to mention that with Dennys Reyes and Craig Breslow in the bullpen, Crain saw fewer lefties total) but the slugging percent rose another 22 points. 

 

While Crain has managed to keep right-handers at a .240 batting average against this season, he has been nothing short of a hot mess against left-handers.  The 26-year-old has abandoned his slider once again and has been using his fastball far less frequently (64 pct) while the use of his curveball has increased a great deal(22 pct). Unlike the 2005 verison of his curveball, Crain's bender was no longer the big 73-mph loop it had once been.  Now it was closer to 80-mph.  In 29 match-ups this season so far, Crain has walked seven lefties (two intentionally) and struck out just 4 while they are holding a 1.000 slugging percentage thanks to five extra base hits, three of which were home runs.  Without being able to locate his curveball for strikes consistantly, hitters waited on the fastball and feasted on the off-chance it came in the zone.  Two of the three home runs came on 3-2 counts when Crain was forced to throw a fastball for a strike because of little confidence/ability to throw his two other pitches for strikes. 

 

Crain's demotion is a good thing, both for he and the Twins.  He still has the talent to retire right-handed batters regularly but It provides him the opportunity to rebuild his approach to left-handed batters.    

 

Crain versus LHB	FB%	SL%	CRV%	BB%	K%	SLG
2005	69	7	13	11.5	7.6	.300
2006	75	14	9	6.4	16.8	.353
2008	70	13	15	11.8	20.4	.375
2009	64	4	22	24.1	13.	1.000

OtB Twins Notes (06.15.09)

Scott Baker's month of June has started off well for the righty.  In three starts, Baker is 2-0 with 23-to-1 strikeouts-to-walks in 22 innings of work.  One of the biggest trend differences for the Twins number one starters between this month and last is that Baker's is getting more chases on pitches out-of-zone (35.1 percent in June versus 29.8 percent in May) plus fewer balls being put into play on those swings (53.9 percent in June versus 70.2 percent in May).  In addition, Baker has seen his average fastball velocity increase from 90.6 to 91.7 in the two months, something that may stem from mechanical adjustments pitching coach Rick Anderson tried to implement.

 

Like everybody else, Patrick Reusse throws in his two cents regarding Delmon Young and how Young's prospect-hype-cum-professional-career-disappointment might mimic that of former Twins prospect David McCarty.  While in theory, the comp is good - two highly touted prospects unable to adapt at the major league level - however, the two players had wildly different developmental paths to the bigs.  As the collegiate-groom McCarty demonstrated progress in the discipline department prior to being advanced, high school draftee Young's plate approach dissipated at each subsequent level (K/BB ratio increased from 2.26 to 3.14 to 4.33 in consecutive years).  The Rays never allowed Young to fully collect himself prior to pushing the next level (a team that has 100-losses doesn't have that luxury).

 

Minnesota Twins fans certainly traveled well to Chicago to be able to worship at the baseball cathedral that is Wrigley Field this past weekend, however, not all baseball insiders feel the same about the facility.  White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen told Joe Cowley at the Chicago Sun-Times that "I puke every time I go there. I'm just being honest. If the Cubs fans don't like the way I talk about Wrigley Field ... I don't say anything about their fans, but Wrigley Field? They have to respect my opinion because that's the way I feel. A lot of great people are working there, the clubhouse people working there - I wish they had a better clubhouse, but besides that, it's exciting when the game starts. Of course it's exciting because that's one of the best, it's always crowded. But besides that, it's terrible.''

 

Alexi Casilla, who was send down to Rochester prior to the weekend, missed Sunday's game due to back problems reports the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle.  This back issue may have to do with a cross-country drive that Casilla went on.  Instead of rendezvousing with the team in Toledo, Casilla flew to the Twin Cities to drive his vehicle back to Rochester (a possible sign that he knew he was not returning to the Twins any time soon).  USA Today's Bob Nightengale noted that these kinds of demotions for players like Casilla are often wake-up calls to players that once thought to have had concrete roles at the Major League level but have a few shortcomings that need additional attention.

 

Sid Hartman believes that right-handed relief pitcher Rob Delaney might get the next call to Minnesota in search of another bullpen arm.  Since his promotion to Rochester, Delaney has struck out seven and walked just one in seven innings of work.  His 5.14 ERA is the product of a four runs outing.  Juan Morillo's has struck out 31 in 22.1 innings of work but has walked 15 in as many appearances.

 

Charley Walters would like the Twins to acquire another hometown hero, Robb Quinlan, from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  The statement is base on nothing specific (besides that he is a local yokel) and would provide the Twins with little-to-no value as a back-up first baseman/third baseman right-handed bat that never really hit lefties all that well (.295/.336/.449 in 587 PAs).  Wait.  Maybe the Walters was suggesting Quinlan for the bullpen...hmmm.

 

Jon Paul Morosi at Fox Sports says that scouts are giving Houston's shortstop Miguel Tejada rave reviews for his work this season.  Undoubtedly, Tejada will inevitably wind up being the hot trade topic this year because of his former MVP pedigree, it should be noted that his rebound power performance in 2009 is buttressed by a favorable home field condition.  His six home runs have all come at Minute Maid (albeit not all in the short left field porch) but the circumstances should dictate that all buyers' beware when acquiring the 35-year-old. 

 

Jeff Zerbiec of the Baltimore Sun says that the Twins, along with the Baltimore Orioles, are the top two teams interested in Dominican Republic shortstop Miguel Angel Sano.  Sano is just 16-years-old but has already drawn comparisons to Florida's superstar shortstop Hanley Ramirez.  Because of so many doctored birth certificates of prospects in the Dominican, one team actually ordered a bone graph which showed Sano is indeed between the ages of 16-and-17.  While the Twins have not been known as aggressive pursuers when it comes to high-priced International prospects, pursuit of Sano makes sense for an organization that does not have a significant pipeline of shortstop prospects - it wasn't until the 8th round of the 2009 draft when the Twins selected their first shortstop, James Dozier, out of Southern Miss.  The young shortstop is rumored to command at minimum a $3-million-dollar signing bonus (with 30 percent going to his handlers) but a large economic leap from his current tax bracket.       

 

Joe Gaetti is having a tough go at it this season.  After being traded by the Twins to the Rangers (where he played at Double-A Frisco), Gaetti stint in the Rangers organization lasted just nine games before being released.  Two weeks ago the son of former Twins third baseman Gary, signed with the Tampa Bay Rays and was assigned to the Montgomery Biscuits. 

See you at Wrigley