Crain optioned to Rochester. What was wrong?

When Jesse Crain rose to prominence in the Twins bullpen in 2005, the 23-year-old right-hander had vultured 12 wins while maintaining a 2.71 ERA despite walking more than he struck out (29/25 BB/K) in 79.2 innings of work also finishing eighth on the AL Rookie of the Year ballot.  The curious thing about Crain's success is that it was based entirely on the fielders behind him.  Thanks to a high percentage of groundballs (46.9 percent) Crain carried a lowly .216 batting average on balls in play helping him keep his ERA sub-3.00 even though he was striking out an underwhelming 2.8 batters per nine innings. 

 

Crain's biggest weakness was his approach to left-handed batters.  For his pitch selection, Crain used his 93.1-mph fastball (69 pct) and a 73.7-mph curveball (13 pct) when attacking lefties that year. In 130 match-ups against opposed handed batters, Crain walked 15 while striking out 10 but once again managed to get by on avoiding big contact (.212 babip vs LHB).  Even though his strikeout totals were extremely low, Crain's velocity difference (19.4-mph on average) kept hitters at bay and induced a ton of groundballs. 

 

The following season, Crain's altered his pitch repertoire, specifically to left-handed batters.  Instead of his fastball-curve combination that he had used in 2005, the 24-year-old Crain used his now 94.3-mph fastball (75 pct) and his 86.9-mph slider (14 pct).  In 116 plate appearances, Crain's adjustments lead to more strikeouts and fewer walks (21/8 K/BB) but decrease in velocity difference (now at 7.4-mph) seemed to allow lefties to make better contact as their slugging percentage against rose 53 points.  Overall, Crain's numbers were head and shoulder's better as he was now striking out 7.0 batters per nine innings and appearing to be the closer-in-training the Twins had projected in his developmental days.

 

After pitching consecutive season of more than 75 innings each and 156.1 combined, Crain's shoulder broke down and needed repair in 2007.  Upon his return to the bullpen in 2008, Crain once again changed his approach to left-handed batters, throwing them a hearty dose of fastballs (70 pct) with a fairly even amount of sliders (13 pct) and curveballs (15 pct).  Even still, Crain appeared to have lefties under control (not to mention that with Dennys Reyes and Craig Breslow in the bullpen, Crain saw fewer lefties total) but the slugging percent rose another 22 points. 

 

While Crain has managed to keep right-handers at a .240 batting average against this season, he has been nothing short of a hot mess against left-handers.  The 26-year-old has abandoned his slider once again and has been using his fastball far less frequently (64 pct) while the use of his curveball has increased a great deal(22 pct). Unlike the 2005 verison of his curveball, Crain's bender was no longer the big 73-mph loop it had once been.  Now it was closer to 80-mph.  In 29 match-ups this season so far, Crain has walked seven lefties (two intentionally) and struck out just 4 while they are holding a 1.000 slugging percentage thanks to five extra base hits, three of which were home runs.  Without being able to locate his curveball for strikes consistantly, hitters waited on the fastball and feasted on the off-chance it came in the zone.  Two of the three home runs came on 3-2 counts when Crain was forced to throw a fastball for a strike because of little confidence/ability to throw his two other pitches for strikes. 

 

Crain's demotion is a good thing, both for he and the Twins.  He still has the talent to retire right-handed batters regularly but It provides him the opportunity to rebuild his approach to left-handed batters.    

 

Crain versus LHB	FB%	SL%	CRV%	BB%	K%	SLG
2005	69	7	13	11.5	7.6	.300
2006	75	14	9	6.4	16.8	.353
2008	70	13	15	11.8	20.4	.375
2009	64	4	22	24.1	13.	1.000

OtB Twins Notes (06.15.09)

Scott Baker's month of June has started off well for the righty.  In three starts, Baker is 2-0 with 23-to-1 strikeouts-to-walks in 22 innings of work.  One of the biggest trend differences for the Twins number one starters between this month and last is that Baker's is getting more chases on pitches out-of-zone (35.1 percent in June versus 29.8 percent in May) plus fewer balls being put into play on those swings (53.9 percent in June versus 70.2 percent in May).  In addition, Baker has seen his average fastball velocity increase from 90.6 to 91.7 in the two months, something that may stem from mechanical adjustments pitching coach Rick Anderson tried to implement.

 

Like everybody else, Patrick Reusse throws in his two cents regarding Delmon Young and how Young's prospect-hype-cum-professional-career-disappointment might mimic that of former Twins prospect David McCarty.  While in theory, the comp is good - two highly touted prospects unable to adapt at the major league level - however, the two players had wildly different developmental paths to the bigs.  As the collegiate-groom McCarty demonstrated progress in the discipline department prior to being advanced, high school draftee Young's plate approach dissipated at each subsequent level (K/BB ratio increased from 2.26 to 3.14 to 4.33 in consecutive years).  The Rays never allowed Young to fully collect himself prior to pushing the next level (a team that has 100-losses doesn't have that luxury).

 

Minnesota Twins fans certainly traveled well to Chicago to be able to worship at the baseball cathedral that is Wrigley Field this past weekend, however, not all baseball insiders feel the same about the facility.  White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen told Joe Cowley at the Chicago Sun-Times that "I puke every time I go there. I'm just being honest. If the Cubs fans don't like the way I talk about Wrigley Field ... I don't say anything about their fans, but Wrigley Field? They have to respect my opinion because that's the way I feel. A lot of great people are working there, the clubhouse people working there - I wish they had a better clubhouse, but besides that, it's exciting when the game starts. Of course it's exciting because that's one of the best, it's always crowded. But besides that, it's terrible.''

 

Alexi Casilla, who was send down to Rochester prior to the weekend, missed Sunday's game due to back problems reports the Rochester Democrat & Chronicle.  This back issue may have to do with a cross-country drive that Casilla went on.  Instead of rendezvousing with the team in Toledo, Casilla flew to the Twin Cities to drive his vehicle back to Rochester (a possible sign that he knew he was not returning to the Twins any time soon).  USA Today's Bob Nightengale noted that these kinds of demotions for players like Casilla are often wake-up calls to players that once thought to have had concrete roles at the Major League level but have a few shortcomings that need additional attention.

 

Sid Hartman believes that right-handed relief pitcher Rob Delaney might get the next call to Minnesota in search of another bullpen arm.  Since his promotion to Rochester, Delaney has struck out seven and walked just one in seven innings of work.  His 5.14 ERA is the product of a four runs outing.  Juan Morillo's has struck out 31 in 22.1 innings of work but has walked 15 in as many appearances.

 

Charley Walters would like the Twins to acquire another hometown hero, Robb Quinlan, from the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim.  The statement is base on nothing specific (besides that he is a local yokel) and would provide the Twins with little-to-no value as a back-up first baseman/third baseman right-handed bat that never really hit lefties all that well (.295/.336/.449 in 587 PAs).  Wait.  Maybe the Walters was suggesting Quinlan for the bullpen...hmmm.

 

Jon Paul Morosi at Fox Sports says that scouts are giving Houston's shortstop Miguel Tejada rave reviews for his work this season.  Undoubtedly, Tejada will inevitably wind up being the hot trade topic this year because of his former MVP pedigree, it should be noted that his rebound power performance in 2009 is buttressed by a favorable home field condition.  His six home runs have all come at Minute Maid (albeit not all in the short left field porch) but the circumstances should dictate that all buyers' beware when acquiring the 35-year-old. 

 

Jeff Zerbiec of the Baltimore Sun says that the Twins, along with the Baltimore Orioles, are the top two teams interested in Dominican Republic shortstop Miguel Angel Sano.  Sano is just 16-years-old but has already drawn comparisons to Florida's superstar shortstop Hanley Ramirez.  Because of so many doctored birth certificates of prospects in the Dominican, one team actually ordered a bone graph which showed Sano is indeed between the ages of 16-and-17.  While the Twins have not been known as aggressive pursuers when it comes to high-priced International prospects, pursuit of Sano makes sense for an organization that does not have a significant pipeline of shortstop prospects - it wasn't until the 8th round of the 2009 draft when the Twins selected their first shortstop, James Dozier, out of Southern Miss.  The young shortstop is rumored to command at minimum a $3-million-dollar signing bonus (with 30 percent going to his handlers) but a large economic leap from his current tax bracket.       

 

Joe Gaetti is having a tough go at it this season.  After being traded by the Twins to the Rangers (where he played at Double-A Frisco), Gaetti stint in the Rangers organization lasted just nine games before being released.  Two weeks ago the son of former Twins third baseman Gary, signed with the Tampa Bay Rays and was assigned to the Montgomery Biscuits. 

See you at Wrigley

 

 

I could do Shooter's job

Me (on Sunday): "One right-handed reliever that might be available at the trade deadline is former Twins and current Astro LaTroy Hawkins, who has been filling in for the injured closer Jose Valverde who is returning to Houston shortly.  The Twins flirted with the idea of acquiring Hawkins last year and since his trade to Houston, Hawkins is 3-2 with a 1.41 ERA while throwing over 44 innings and striking out 47 and coverting eight saves."  

 

Charley Walters (on Wednesday): "Don't be surprised if the Twins make a deal with the Houston Astros soon for former Twins reliever LaTroy Hawkins. The Twins are seriously interested and the Astros are in last place in their division, making the 36-year-old right-hander expendable. It also doesn't hurt that Hawkins, who is popular in the clubhouse and whose fastball is still in the 95-mph range, could cost Minnesota just $2.3 million for the rest of the season. His salary this season is $3.5 million. In 26 games for Houston, Hawkins is 1-2 with a 2.55 earned-run average and 23 strikeouts in 24 2/3 innings. He has eight saves in nine opportunities since taking over as the Astros' closer for the injured Jose Valverde."

 

I should have added "seriously interested" in my write up.  Damn. 

 

Mauer and the fastball

Baseball analysts league-wide, attempting to do what they are paid to do, are throwing in their two cents trying to explain Joe Mauer's sudden home run capabilities and an .845 slugging percentage. 

 

FSNorth's Ron Coomer told MinnPost's Pat Borzi that the power explosion has to do Mauer correcting a "weak-side drift" in his swing - that his front hip had the tendency to move forward right before swinging.  This correction has allowed Mauer to have a more balanced and loaded stride, generating additional power in his swings.  On another recent broadcast, FSNorth's other analyst Roy Smalley noted that Mauer's swing has a definite shoulder drop which is leading to more lift on the ball, hence more balls disappearing into the left field seats instead of landing as a double.  Both sideline reporters had submitted video evidence comparing this year's swing to last year's version to support their claims.  The clips did support Coomer and Smalley's theory however comparing one solitary swing to one other lone swing reveals very little (had they rundown over 150 swings from last year to this year I would have put more stock into their assessments). Certainly any number of small minutia adjustments could have been made to his swing in this past offseason but Mauer more or less differed and said that "I don't think my swing has changed at all."

 

Perhaps there is something less physically involved in his surge.  By Mauer's own accounts, he says that he has been "seeing the ball better".  Consider this: Mauer is absolutely killing the fastball and, on top of that, he's getting a ton of them thrown his way. 

 

Mauer's early returns in 2009 shows that he is very capable of punishing a fastball -- hitting 11 of his 12 home runs on heaters.  Fangraphs.com, who added a statistic that provides the run aboove average value of each individual type of pitch, shows that at a 5.23 runs above average, Mauer leads all hitters per 100 pitches (min. 120 PA):

 

Player	Team	wFB/C
Joe Mauer	Twins	5.23
Luke Scott	Orioles	4.62
Albert Pujols	Cardinals	4.44
Kevin Youkilis	Red Sox	4.24
Victor Martinez	Indians	4.14

 

These numbers are just another way of saying that these guys are good fastball hitters.  A few states south of Minnesota, Albert Pujols (.346/.470/.698) is demolishing the rawhide in the same vein yet Pujols only sees 53 percent of balls thrown at him as fastballs.  Likewise, Boston's Kevin Youkilis (.349/.470/.631), another hitter renown for his batting eye, and is now seeing just 54 percent of his pitches as fastballs thanks to a 4.24 wFB/C.  Cleveland's Victor Martinez (.344/.412/.555), like Youk and Prince Albert, has also seen his fastball offerings drop to the 54 percent range.  Mauer, on the other hand, has received nearly 70 percent (67.1%) of pitches thrown to him of the fastball variety.  This is a rather rotund amount considering the quality of hitter that is Joe Mauer. 

 

Look at this list of the hitters receiving the most fastballs by percentage.  Those who are getting high percentages of fastballs are of the slap-hitting, high-contact pedigree and offer very little of a power threat:   

 

Player	Team	Fastball %	Isolated Power Average
David Eckstein	Padres	75.30	.071
Luis Castillo	Mets	73.70	.056
Chone Figgins	Angels	72.80	.066
Placido Polanco	Tigers	70.40	.103
Jacoby Ellsbury	Red Sox	70.00	.068

In a lot of ways, Mauer shares similar characteristics to those on the list (unlikely to chase pitches, low strikeouts, etc) which merits a fastballs but at the same time Mauer's .405 ISOP has little in common with Placido Polanco's .103 ISOP.  The Tigers second baseman has not be able to generate any scoring when facing a fastball as evident of his -0.97 wFB/C, giving pitchers the impression that more fastballs will equal greater success against Polanco. 

 

Mauer's power surge may have to do with a greater influx of fastballs that are typically reserved for slap-happy hitters.  With a larger propensity to drive the ball for extra bases, pitching coaches will eventually instruct their pitchers to throw more offspeed and breaking pitches.  Mauer still has the ability to capitalize on what should be fewer fastballs in June but it probably means less of an opportunity to replicate his unearthly month of May.