See you at Wrigley

 

 

I could do Shooter's job

Me (on Sunday): "One right-handed reliever that might be available at the trade deadline is former Twins and current Astro LaTroy Hawkins, who has been filling in for the injured closer Jose Valverde who is returning to Houston shortly.  The Twins flirted with the idea of acquiring Hawkins last year and since his trade to Houston, Hawkins is 3-2 with a 1.41 ERA while throwing over 44 innings and striking out 47 and coverting eight saves."  

 

Charley Walters (on Wednesday): "Don't be surprised if the Twins make a deal with the Houston Astros soon for former Twins reliever LaTroy Hawkins. The Twins are seriously interested and the Astros are in last place in their division, making the 36-year-old right-hander expendable. It also doesn't hurt that Hawkins, who is popular in the clubhouse and whose fastball is still in the 95-mph range, could cost Minnesota just $2.3 million for the rest of the season. His salary this season is $3.5 million. In 26 games for Houston, Hawkins is 1-2 with a 2.55 earned-run average and 23 strikeouts in 24 2/3 innings. He has eight saves in nine opportunities since taking over as the Astros' closer for the injured Jose Valverde."

 

I should have added "seriously interested" in my write up.  Damn. 

 

Mauer and the fastball

Baseball analysts league-wide, attempting to do what they are paid to do, are throwing in their two cents trying to explain Joe Mauer's sudden home run capabilities and an .845 slugging percentage. 

 

FSNorth's Ron Coomer told MinnPost's Pat Borzi that the power explosion has to do Mauer correcting a "weak-side drift" in his swing - that his front hip had the tendency to move forward right before swinging.  This correction has allowed Mauer to have a more balanced and loaded stride, generating additional power in his swings.  On another recent broadcast, FSNorth's other analyst Roy Smalley noted that Mauer's swing has a definite shoulder drop which is leading to more lift on the ball, hence more balls disappearing into the left field seats instead of landing as a double.  Both sideline reporters had submitted video evidence comparing this year's swing to last year's version to support their claims.  The clips did support Coomer and Smalley's theory however comparing one solitary swing to one other lone swing reveals very little (had they rundown over 150 swings from last year to this year I would have put more stock into their assessments). Certainly any number of small minutia adjustments could have been made to his swing in this past offseason but Mauer more or less differed and said that "I don't think my swing has changed at all."

 

Perhaps there is something less physically involved in his surge.  By Mauer's own accounts, he says that he has been "seeing the ball better".  Consider this: Mauer is absolutely killing the fastball and, on top of that, he's getting a ton of them thrown his way. 

 

Mauer's early returns in 2009 shows that he is very capable of punishing a fastball -- hitting 11 of his 12 home runs on heaters.  Fangraphs.com, who added a statistic that provides the run aboove average value of each individual type of pitch, shows that at a 5.23 runs above average, Mauer leads all hitters per 100 pitches (min. 120 PA):

 

Player	Team	wFB/C
Joe Mauer	Twins	5.23
Luke Scott	Orioles	4.62
Albert Pujols	Cardinals	4.44
Kevin Youkilis	Red Sox	4.24
Victor Martinez	Indians	4.14

 

These numbers are just another way of saying that these guys are good fastball hitters.  A few states south of Minnesota, Albert Pujols (.346/.470/.698) is demolishing the rawhide in the same vein yet Pujols only sees 53 percent of balls thrown at him as fastballs.  Likewise, Boston's Kevin Youkilis (.349/.470/.631), another hitter renown for his batting eye, and is now seeing just 54 percent of his pitches as fastballs thanks to a 4.24 wFB/C.  Cleveland's Victor Martinez (.344/.412/.555), like Youk and Prince Albert, has also seen his fastball offerings drop to the 54 percent range.  Mauer, on the other hand, has received nearly 70 percent (67.1%) of pitches thrown to him of the fastball variety.  This is a rather rotund amount considering the quality of hitter that is Joe Mauer. 

 

Look at this list of the hitters receiving the most fastballs by percentage.  Those who are getting high percentages of fastballs are of the slap-hitting, high-contact pedigree and offer very little of a power threat:   

 

Player	Team	Fastball %	Isolated Power Average
David Eckstein	Padres	75.30	.071
Luis Castillo	Mets	73.70	.056
Chone Figgins	Angels	72.80	.066
Placido Polanco	Tigers	70.40	.103
Jacoby Ellsbury	Red Sox	70.00	.068

In a lot of ways, Mauer shares similar characteristics to those on the list (unlikely to chase pitches, low strikeouts, etc) which merits a fastballs but at the same time Mauer's .405 ISOP has little in common with Placido Polanco's .103 ISOP.  The Tigers second baseman has not be able to generate any scoring when facing a fastball as evident of his -0.97 wFB/C, giving pitchers the impression that more fastballs will equal greater success against Polanco. 

 

Mauer's power surge may have to do with a greater influx of fastballs that are typically reserved for slap-happy hitters.  With a larger propensity to drive the ball for extra bases, pitching coaches will eventually instruct their pitchers to throw more offspeed and breaking pitches.  Mauer still has the ability to capitalize on what should be fewer fastballs in June but it probably means less of an opportunity to replicate his unearthly month of May.

 

 

OtB Twins Notes (06.08.09)

Since his return from his bereavement leave on May 24th, Delmon Young is now 5-for-37 with 21 strikeouts and just one walk.  At Fangraphs.com, Dave Cameron asks "What To Do With Delmon" and his response is to manufacture a similar mysterious mental "injury" that befell Detroit's Dontrelle Willis and St. Louis's Khali Greene to allow the Twins to circumvent the waivers and allow Young some "rehab" work in the minors (to which Tim Marchman agrees). 

 

At Tenth Inning Stretch, Thryros presents one of the many problems with his swing - alignment.  This, to me, is a problem but it is a tree in a forest of problems for Young.  What he doesn't draw attention to, but clearly has plenty of visual evidence of, is that Young is unable to generate power from his lower half because of improper weight-shifting in his legs (look at the rear leg bend compared to that of the other sluggers).  He has very little leverage from below the waist.  Other issues include his loading problem where his weight is shifted too far on his front foot prior to the pitcher releasing which leads to the need to start his swing earlier, resulting in poor pitch recognition (commits too early on breaking stuff and to many late swings on fastballs) and opposite field hits.  This is not a hit-your-way-out-of-it-funk, Young needs a complete rebuild.       

 

KFAN's Phil Mackey takes a look at Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano.  In his past three starts Baker is 2-1 but has thrown a very improved 21 innings with 20 strikeouts and just one walk.  Still, balls keep sneaking over the fence as he allowed five home runs in those starts.  Liriano on the other hand has to work on his offerings to right-handed opponents (who are slugging .531 off of him with nine of the ten home runs allowed) and while pitching from the stretch (hitters are slugging .590 when runners are on base). 

 

Twins left-handed reliever Sean Henn has never been known for his control, as he has walked 55 batters to 51 strikeouts in his major league career, but let's agree that the guy can deliver when it comes to downhome baseball quotes (insert your own Texas twang):  "I'm not a big control guy, so for me to try to hit a gnat's rear would be stupid.  Obviously, those walks correlate into runs. So I'm going back to what I did in the minors: trust in your stuff, hit the zone, let the seven guys behind you work for you. I feel like I'm throwing the ball over the plate more than I ever have."

 

I am a big believer that a baseball team can inflate the value of a relief pitcher by putting said pitcher in situations that best fit his strength.  Dennys Reyes was an excellent example of this in 2006 and Craig Breslow was another last season.  Henn could be another addition of the same ilk if deployed well situationally.  Henn's weakness is clearly throwing strikes to right-handed batters as 46 of his 55 career walks have comes against right-handed opponents (his three walks this year have all been against righties), yet in 2009 righties are just 1-for-13 (.077) - a possible affirmation for being effectively wild - while left-handed opponents are 5-for-13 (.385) with three doubles.  Speaking of Craig Breslow, the former Twins has held opponents to a .192 batting average in eight innings while strikeout eight and walking just one since being acquired by Oakland. 

 

Star Tribune's Patrick Reusse released this little nugget of a column regarding the hype around the Joe Mauer contract extension.  In not so many words, Reusse informs us that Mauer will either stay or go and essentially says "stop worrying about it, you hoople heads".  In addition to that, Reusse cropdusted a nice message to those of us that analyze numbers that we are "a small minority that think it's all about make-believe statistics."  With that in mind, Aaron Gleeman tells us that Mauer is leading the team in the make-believe statistic of Runs Above Replacement with 27. 

 

One right-handed reliever that might be available at the trade deadline is former Twins and current Astro LaTroy Hawkins, who has been filling in for the injured closer Jose Valverde who is returning to Houston shortly.  The Twins flirted with the idea of acquiring Hawkins last year and since his trade to Houston, Hawkins is 3-2 with a 1.41 ERA while throwing over 44 innings and striking out 47 and coverting eight saves.  

  

Cleveland Plain Dealer columnist Paul Hoynes discusses the transition away from the Metrodome and what it will mean to a team that has taken advantage of the quirky indoor home field moves outdoors.

 

Nick Nelson takes a jog around the very winnable AL Central. 

 

Twins GM Bill Smith spews out non-sensical jargon about "consistency" and the Pioneer Press's Charley Walters dedicates column space to it down. 

OtB Twins Notes (06.01.09)

Charley Walters reports that the Twins are not quite ready to discuss figures with Joe Mauer yet.  Twins Sports Inc president Jerry Bell cited former Twin greats in Kirby Puckett and Kent Hrbek as similar players who accepted lower overall contracts to remain in Minnesota and believes that Mauer will follow suit.  Speculation is that offers could easily reach the $20-mill per year range when teams like the Yankees and Red Sox reach for their checkbooks.  This is not too far from his current production value.  According to Fangraphs.com evaluation, Mauer was worth $22.4 million in his 2006 season and $26.4 million last year despite being paid $6.4 million and so far in 2009, Mauer's obliterating his previous worth by providing $11.9 million in May alone.  Bell says contract negotiations will transpire after the All Star break. 

 

A strained right groin landed shortstop Nick Punto on the 15-day DL.  After signing Punto to a two-year, $8 million contract in hopes of solidifying their shortstop position, the Twins have received seriously below average offensive output thus far in 2009 (in case you were wondering, by the Fangraphs.com's system Punto currently owes the Twins $1.6 million of production).  The league-average for a shortstop has been .274/.329/.385 as Punto and Brendan Harris have supplied a meager .226/.307/.228 for Minnesota.  Early rumors suggest that Pittsburgh's Jack Wilson, Cleveland's Jhonny Peralta and Toronto's John McDonald might be available on the trade market, none of whom are the least bit intriguing if the Twins decided to go that route. 

 

La Velle E Neal says right fielder Michael Cuddyer left the second inning of Sunday's game with a strained right index finger and will be day-to-day with his injury.  "It was a little stiff from [Saturday] night," Cuddyer said. "I came in this morning and it was a little sore. Then I fouled a ball down the left-field line and it just blew up."  Cuddyer has been on a torrid pace in the month of May hitting .315/.398/.657 with eight home runs, three triples and seven doubles adding 26 RBIs in 108 at-bats.  His 1.056 OPS for May was third on the team trailing Joe Mauer (1.338) and Justin Morneau (1.056).   

 

Kelsie Smith notes that Francisco Liriano's days in the rotation might be numbered as Glen Perkins gets set to return from the DL after some rehab starts.  Pitching coach Rick Anderson believes that Liriano's struggles with runners on base is due to mental issues rather than mechanical ones (opponents are lugging .614 off of the lefty when there are runners but slugging just .415 when the bases are empty).  When asked if the Twins would consider sending Liriano to a sports psychologist, manager Ron Gardenhire told reporters that it is "a touchy subject. It's not an easy thing. We've had players do that before. We have doctors that, if we think this is becoming a real mental issue for them, yeah. Those options are always available if a guy is really, really struggling, and if you have to do that, you have to do that. I would think that my pitching coach is probably better at that stuff. Mentally, he can relate to players as good as anybody, and he's got a calming influence on them."

 

Last week, Yahoo! Sports's Gordon Eves listed the Twins among potential suitors for Red Sox starter Brad Penny.  With Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano at a combined 4-13 with a 6.48 ERA, the Twins may want to consider some outside help but Penny's 5-1 record aside, he's not an upgrade.  Currently sporting a 5.63 ERA, Penny's strikeout rate is down to 5.6 K/9 and has averaged under six innings per start.  The record looks pristine because of 6.17 runs of support comes in handy while opponents slug .522 off of you.

 

Twins farm director Jim Rantz -- along with Paul Molitor and Tom Kelly -- was in Rochester scouting the team that has been playing poorly as of late raleys Jim Mandelaro.  The Red Wings are having offensive issues with Matt Macri (.193 BA), Brock Peterson (.159), Trevor Plouffe (.224) and Jason Pridie (.224).  Rantz appears confident in Macri and Pridie's ability to rebound from the slow start given their longevity at the AAA level.  

 

Former KFAN personality and current Your Voices writer at the Star Tribune, Doogie Wolfson, echoed the sentiment that Steve Phillips is a moron when it comes to making comments on baseball teams.  

 

Include Matt Garza on the list of people tired of hearing about the trade that sent him to Tampa Bay in 2007: "It's over and done with," Garza said. "I was a Twin two years ago. I'm a Ray now, and I'm more about the here and now. I have bigger things to worry about, my mentality, how I'm going to approach this outing."