OtB Twins Notes (06.08.09)

Since his return from his bereavement leave on May 24th, Delmon Young is now 5-for-37 with 21 strikeouts and just one walk.  At Fangraphs.com, Dave Cameron asks "What To Do With Delmon" and his response is to manufacture a similar mysterious mental "injury" that befell Detroit's Dontrelle Willis and St. Louis's Khali Greene to allow the Twins to circumvent the waivers and allow Young some "rehab" work in the minors (to which Tim Marchman agrees). 

 

At Tenth Inning Stretch, Thryros presents one of the many problems with his swing - alignment.  This, to me, is a problem but it is a tree in a forest of problems for Young.  What he doesn't draw attention to, but clearly has plenty of visual evidence of, is that Young is unable to generate power from his lower half because of improper weight-shifting in his legs (look at the rear leg bend compared to that of the other sluggers).  He has very little leverage from below the waist.  Other issues include his loading problem where his weight is shifted too far on his front foot prior to the pitcher releasing which leads to the need to start his swing earlier, resulting in poor pitch recognition (commits too early on breaking stuff and to many late swings on fastballs) and opposite field hits.  This is not a hit-your-way-out-of-it-funk, Young needs a complete rebuild.       

 

KFAN's Phil Mackey takes a look at Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano.  In his past three starts Baker is 2-1 but has thrown a very improved 21 innings with 20 strikeouts and just one walk.  Still, balls keep sneaking over the fence as he allowed five home runs in those starts.  Liriano on the other hand has to work on his offerings to right-handed opponents (who are slugging .531 off of him with nine of the ten home runs allowed) and while pitching from the stretch (hitters are slugging .590 when runners are on base). 

 

Twins left-handed reliever Sean Henn has never been known for his control, as he has walked 55 batters to 51 strikeouts in his major league career, but let's agree that the guy can deliver when it comes to downhome baseball quotes (insert your own Texas twang):  "I'm not a big control guy, so for me to try to hit a gnat's rear would be stupid.  Obviously, those walks correlate into runs. So I'm going back to what I did in the minors: trust in your stuff, hit the zone, let the seven guys behind you work for you. I feel like I'm throwing the ball over the plate more than I ever have."

 

I am a big believer that a baseball team can inflate the value of a relief pitcher by putting said pitcher in situations that best fit his strength.  Dennys Reyes was an excellent example of this in 2006 and Craig Breslow was another last season.  Henn could be another addition of the same ilk if deployed well situationally.  Henn's weakness is clearly throwing strikes to right-handed batters as 46 of his 55 career walks have comes against right-handed opponents (his three walks this year have all been against righties), yet in 2009 righties are just 1-for-13 (.077) - a possible affirmation for being effectively wild - while left-handed opponents are 5-for-13 (.385) with three doubles.  Speaking of Craig Breslow, the former Twins has held opponents to a .192 batting average in eight innings while strikeout eight and walking just one since being acquired by Oakland. 

 

Star Tribune's Patrick Reusse released this little nugget of a column regarding the hype around the Joe Mauer contract extension.  In not so many words, Reusse informs us that Mauer will either stay or go and essentially says "stop worrying about it, you hoople heads".  In addition to that, Reusse cropdusted a nice message to those of us that analyze numbers that we are "a small minority that think it's all about make-believe statistics."  With that in mind, Aaron Gleeman tells us that Mauer is leading the team in the make-believe statistic of Runs Above Replacement with 27. 

 

One right-handed reliever that might be available at the trade deadline is former Twins and current Astro LaTroy Hawkins, who has been filling in for the injured closer Jose Valverde who is returning to Houston shortly.  The Twins flirted with the idea of acquiring Hawkins last year and since his trade to Houston, Hawkins is 3-2 with a 1.41 ERA while throwing over 44 innings and striking out 47 and coverting eight saves.  

  

Cleveland Plain Dealer columnist Paul Hoynes discusses the transition away from the Metrodome and what it will mean to a team that has taken advantage of the quirky indoor home field moves outdoors.

 

Nick Nelson takes a jog around the very winnable AL Central. 

 

Twins GM Bill Smith spews out non-sensical jargon about "consistency" and the Pioneer Press's Charley Walters dedicates column space to it down. 

OtB Twins Notes (06.01.09)

Charley Walters reports that the Twins are not quite ready to discuss figures with Joe Mauer yet.  Twins Sports Inc president Jerry Bell cited former Twin greats in Kirby Puckett and Kent Hrbek as similar players who accepted lower overall contracts to remain in Minnesota and believes that Mauer will follow suit.  Speculation is that offers could easily reach the $20-mill per year range when teams like the Yankees and Red Sox reach for their checkbooks.  This is not too far from his current production value.  According to Fangraphs.com evaluation, Mauer was worth $22.4 million in his 2006 season and $26.4 million last year despite being paid $6.4 million and so far in 2009, Mauer's obliterating his previous worth by providing $11.9 million in May alone.  Bell says contract negotiations will transpire after the All Star break. 

 

A strained right groin landed shortstop Nick Punto on the 15-day DL.  After signing Punto to a two-year, $8 million contract in hopes of solidifying their shortstop position, the Twins have received seriously below average offensive output thus far in 2009 (in case you were wondering, by the Fangraphs.com's system Punto currently owes the Twins $1.6 million of production).  The league-average for a shortstop has been .274/.329/.385 as Punto and Brendan Harris have supplied a meager .226/.307/.228 for Minnesota.  Early rumors suggest that Pittsburgh's Jack Wilson, Cleveland's Jhonny Peralta and Toronto's John McDonald might be available on the trade market, none of whom are the least bit intriguing if the Twins decided to go that route. 

 

La Velle E Neal says right fielder Michael Cuddyer left the second inning of Sunday's game with a strained right index finger and will be day-to-day with his injury.  "It was a little stiff from [Saturday] night," Cuddyer said. "I came in this morning and it was a little sore. Then I fouled a ball down the left-field line and it just blew up."  Cuddyer has been on a torrid pace in the month of May hitting .315/.398/.657 with eight home runs, three triples and seven doubles adding 26 RBIs in 108 at-bats.  His 1.056 OPS for May was third on the team trailing Joe Mauer (1.338) and Justin Morneau (1.056).   

 

Kelsie Smith notes that Francisco Liriano's days in the rotation might be numbered as Glen Perkins gets set to return from the DL after some rehab starts.  Pitching coach Rick Anderson believes that Liriano's struggles with runners on base is due to mental issues rather than mechanical ones (opponents are lugging .614 off of the lefty when there are runners but slugging just .415 when the bases are empty).  When asked if the Twins would consider sending Liriano to a sports psychologist, manager Ron Gardenhire told reporters that it is "a touchy subject. It's not an easy thing. We've had players do that before. We have doctors that, if we think this is becoming a real mental issue for them, yeah. Those options are always available if a guy is really, really struggling, and if you have to do that, you have to do that. I would think that my pitching coach is probably better at that stuff. Mentally, he can relate to players as good as anybody, and he's got a calming influence on them."

 

Last week, Yahoo! Sports's Gordon Eves listed the Twins among potential suitors for Red Sox starter Brad Penny.  With Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano at a combined 4-13 with a 6.48 ERA, the Twins may want to consider some outside help but Penny's 5-1 record aside, he's not an upgrade.  Currently sporting a 5.63 ERA, Penny's strikeout rate is down to 5.6 K/9 and has averaged under six innings per start.  The record looks pristine because of 6.17 runs of support comes in handy while opponents slug .522 off of you.

 

Twins farm director Jim Rantz -- along with Paul Molitor and Tom Kelly -- was in Rochester scouting the team that has been playing poorly as of late raleys Jim Mandelaro.  The Red Wings are having offensive issues with Matt Macri (.193 BA), Brock Peterson (.159), Trevor Plouffe (.224) and Jason Pridie (.224).  Rantz appears confident in Macri and Pridie's ability to rebound from the slow start given their longevity at the AAA level.  

 

Former KFAN personality and current Your Voices writer at the Star Tribune, Doogie Wolfson, echoed the sentiment that Steve Phillips is a moron when it comes to making comments on baseball teams.  

 

Include Matt Garza on the list of people tired of hearing about the trade that sent him to Tampa Bay in 2007: "It's over and done with," Garza said. "I was a Twin two years ago. I'm a Ray now, and I'm more about the here and now. I have bigger things to worry about, my mentality, how I'm going to approach this outing."

 

Twins lacking a true leadoff hitter?

Former Mets general manager and current ESPN commentator Steve Phillips mentioned during the seventh inning of ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball broadcast of the Twins/Brewers game that Minnesota was swiftly becoming a complete team with one exception: a true leadoff hitter.  Phillips gestured that the Twins do have Denard Span in that role but that he thinks of Span more as a "seventh hitter".  This was an interesting assessment of what has been viewed locally as the best leadoff hitter the Twins have seen since the departure of Chuck Knoblauch.  Piquing my curiosity, I had to figure out what would inspire Phillips, someone who has access to data and analysis, to make such a comment?  Have we as Twins fans been fooling ourselves on the importance of Span at the top of the lineup?
  

Through Monday, Span was hitting .302/.390/.407 (above the leadoff-average of .268/.343/.407) making his current value derived from his on-base ability much higher then that of your common leadoff man.  True, his walk rate of 10% is just league-average indicating that his .390 on-base percentage is slightly inflated by a sturdy .338 batting average on balls in play.  Then again, Span managed to maintain similar numbers in 2008 under the same pretenses.  As a quick groundball/line drive hitter, it stands to reason that Span's BABIP would be higher than league average. 

 

His walk rate aside, Span has a patient and selective approach to the plate.  He is tied for eighth in the American League in lowest swinging percentage (38%) which has led to a very good 3.94 pitches per plate appearance.  He does not strike out much but when he does, he goes down looking.  In fact 62 percent of his strikeouts are looking which leads the league and as such his selectivity has resulted in 16 of his 26 punchouts.  As an admission there are far greater sins than to strikeout looking, even Phillips should know that.  Span also has great contact ability, connecting on 93 percent of his swings.  Only Toronto's leadoff man, Marco Scutaro, holds a better contact rate than Span (Scutaro is also the AL's leading walks leader). 

 

Phillips never did reveal what about Span's approach made him balk at his candidacy as a leadoff hitter.  If I had to speculate why he felt as such, my guess would center on his runs scored total.  In the first month of the season, Span scored just 10 times - a byproduct of the lack of production in the order behind him.  In comparison, Scutaro scored 24 times for the Blue Jays while the Rangers' Ian Kinsler scored 18 times.  Span got himself on base nearly 40% of his plate appearances yet was frequently stranded.  In many ways, Span's run scored numbers in April was like that of Joe Nathan without any save opportunities.  It is a hard statistic to compile if your offense or the game score isn't compliant. 

 

Does this mean that Span is an ill-suited leadoff man?  Absolutely not.  On base abilities, selectivity and contact.  These are qualities shared by some of the game's better leadoff hitters.  Getting on base that frequently, especially someone with speed like Span, usually leads to huge gains on the scoreboard - even more so when you purge your lineup of your larger out-makers in the number two spot (Casilla, Tolbert).  Since moving the league's best hitter to hit second, Span has scored five times in three games.  Keeping Joe Mauer batting second will ensure that Phillips never underestimates Span's skills again. 

Award Context: Rod Carew's 1977 MVP

Rod Carew's path to the bigs was far from ordinary:  Born on a train in the Panama Canal Zone and receiving his name from the Jewish physician that delivered him, Carew's family immigrated to New York where he attended George Washington High School (the same school as Manny Ramirez). It was there while playing semi-pro ball in the Bronx that he would be discovered by a Minnesota Twins' scout.  "In Manhattan, we lived about two blocks from the old Polo Ground," Carew told columnist Ed Rumill in 1967, "The Mets were playing there then, in 1963.  But offers came from other clubs.  The Red Sox, White Sox, Yankees, Pirates, Tigers and Twins all talked to me about signing.  The Yanks and Pirates invited me to tryout camps, but I didn't go.  I worked out with the Twins when they came to New York."

 

Carew would burst onto the Major League scene, quickly ascending to Minnesota in 1967 after three years in the minors.  A UPI reporter would credit much of the team's success that season to the nimble infielder, writing "[t]he slim Carew, whose dash and hitting ability has been a prime factor in the Minnesota Twins' pennant contention this year, has already gained one important laurel in his freshman campaign, namely being selected to the starting All-Star team, the only rookie so honored."  His first of many All-Star appearances was just a prelude to his eventual Rookie of the Year award, hitting .292 with 8 home runs and 51 RBIs while batting second for a Twins team that would finish 91-71 - one game behind the American League pennant winning Red Sox. 

 

From 1968 through 1976, between the ages of 22 and 30, Carew would hit .332, winding up a perennial All-Star, MVP candidate and winning the American League batting title in five of those nine seasons.  It was 1977 and his quest for .400, however, that would solidify Carew's presence in the annals of baseball history.  That season Carew would get off to a great start, hitting .349/.412/.512 in his first 21 games.  On April 30th, Tigers pitcher Dave Roberts took exception to Minnesota's six early runs and would plunk Carew in his second plate appearance of the game.  Carew, a tenacious competitor, would retaliated by throwing a punch at Roberts and be excused from the remainder of the game.  A month later on June 26th, on Rod Carew Jersey Day at Metropolitan Stadium no less, Carew would go 4-for-5, scoring five times and driving in six thanks to a grand slam to push his average above .400 to .403 for the first time that season.  For an encore the next night, the 31-year-old Carew would steal home for the 16th time in his career against the visiting Brewers.     

 

The remarkable average notwithstanding, Carew was also on pace to break two prestigious offensive records: George Sisler's 55-year-old record of 257 hits and Joe Jackson's record of 26 triples set in 1912. Carew became a national sensation.  Baseball fans across the country took notice and elected him to his 11th straight All-Star game - setting a record for most votes ever (4.29 million votes).  Shortly thereafter, Time Magazine placed him on their cover declaring him the game's best hitter.  Sport Illustrated trotted out Ted Williams from his New England fishing hole to deem Carew the only batter alive worthy of being included in the .400 club.  Ballplayers in both leagues would marvel at his abilities.  White Sox shortstop Alan Bannister would note "He's the only guy I know who can go 4-for-3" while Royals center fielder Amos Otis conjured up a down-home proverb, suggesting that "trying to sneak a pitch past him is like trying to sneak the sunrise past a rooster."  Don Sutton, then a Los Angeles Dodger, perhaps echoed the feelings of National League pitchers everywhere in response to interleague game proposals: "I hope it comes a) after I have retired or b) after Rod Carew has retired." 

Carew would cool off in August (comparatively) and he would start the season's final month with a .378 average, making the .400-mark all but out of reach.  Even as the Twins toiled away in fourth place, Carew hit .439 in September to finish the year with a .388 average.  At the conclusion of the 1977 season, Carew would be at the top or near the top of the leaderboard in almost every major category:

 

• His .388 batting average would top the next closest finisher in the American League, teammate Lyman Bostock, by 52 points and winning his sixth batting title.  Not only that, but his .388 average would be the highest in twenty years (matching Ted Williams's 1957 average). 
• His .449 on-base percentage would be the best in the AL. (Because he was on base consistently and batting in front of Larry Hisle, Hisle was able to finish first with 119 RBIs). 
• Carew's sudden outburst of power, a surprising .570 slugging percentage, would be second only to Boston's Jim Rice's .593.  
• His OPS of 1.019 was baseball's best, beating out George Foster of the Red's 1.013. 
• Carew's 128 runs scored was 22 more than Carlton Fisk's 106.  
• His 239 hits would be the most since Heinie Manush had 241 in 1928.     
• His 16 triples would be the most in the AL.
• Carew was intentionally walked 15 time by opposing teams, the most by any AL batter.

   

The Twins found themselves well out of postseason contention but Carew's performance was more than enough to secure him his first and only MVP award as his season was undoubtedly one of the all-time greatest in a Twins or any other team's uniform.  His 1977 season was the first in a three-year contract with the Twins - a contract that was viewed as as an outrageous steal for one of the game's most preeminent hitters.  During his run at .400, it was pointed out that Carew's $170,000 a year was well-below that of similar talent Joe Morgan ($400,000) and Steve Garvey ($333,000).  Following his MVP season, Carew watched as two teammates in Hisle and Bostock were allowed to leave via free agency, signifying the long-harbored sentiment that the Twins have little interest in retaining high-priced players (My how things change).  In the 1977-1978 offseason, Twins owner Calvin Griffith would go on record as saying "If I ever traded Rod Carew, I might as well hop on a plane and get out of Minnesota."  Griffith kept his word until January 1979 when the Twins traded Carew to California for Ken Landreaux, Dave Engle, Brad Havens and Paul Hartzell. 

     

Gomez's plate discipline improving, Young still needs work

Beginning the season as Ron Gardenhire’s pariah, center fielder Carlos Gomez spent the latter portion of April watching left fielder Delmon Young turn routine plays into extra bases.  When afforded the opportunity to play, Gomez displayed dazzling defense but a mind-bogglingly bad approach to the plate.  Young, on the other hand, would be terrible at both.  So as Gomez’s superior defense rotted on the bench, only to be called upon as a late innings substitute, Young was given the lion’s share of playing time.  Ultimately, the decision to play Young over Gomez is all that much more curious when you consider that the pair have been the exact same hitter. 

 

In the initial month of the season Gomez showed no indication that he had a better understanding of the strike zone or had improved his pitch recognition.  In almost a continuation of last year, pitchers would set him up with breaking stuff well outside the strike zone and the eager outfielder would flail with little hope of contact (just 43.5 percent) resulting in 11 punchouts in 44 plate appearances and a .195 batting average in April.  As bad as Gomez was, Young was actually worse.  Aside from Jose Morales, Young swung at the highest amount of pitches outside the zone in the month of April (37.8 percent) and, moreover, made less contact with those pitches (37.8 percent) and wound up striking out in 15 of his 58 plate appearances.  What seemingly gave Young the advantage is that he had several more balls bleed through the infield thus giving the appearance of a better hitter than Gomez with a .241 batting average.   

April	PA	OOZ swing%	K%	BB%	BAVG
Gomez	44	32.9	26.8	6.8	.195
Young	58	37.8	27.8	3.6	.241

This current month Young and Gomez have the same amount of plate appearances and, once again, Young’s better average gives the look of a better hitter.  A closer inspection reveals that Young’s .345 average is boosted by a .455 batting average on balls in play –- an unsustainable figure considering he had a 60 percent groundball rate –- while his chase numbers basically stayed the same (with the exception of putting more of those chased pitches into play).  Gomez, meanwhile, trimmed the number of swings outside the zone down significantly and because of which, he drew more walks.  What makes this transformation all that more impressive is that Gomez has seen the amount of non-fastball offerings increase from 48 percent in April to 55 percent in May, yet he would lay off the enticing off-speed stuff.    

 

May	PA	OOZ swing%	K%	BB%	BAVG
Gomez	32	16.7	20.0	13.8	.320
Young	32	28.6	24.1	6.5	.345

With Young on bereavement leave, Gomez is demonstrating that his consistent presence in the lineup is a boon to his production.  Undoubtedly his improved pitch comprehension is directly associated with his regular playing time but having Gomez in the field for nine innings rather then as defensive replacement at the end of the ballgame is beneficial for the pitching staff.  True, he is still an eager outfielder who will hack at the first pitch following seven-straight balls and other miscellaneous youthful mental errors but his recent plate approach marks noteworthy progress from the key dividend of the Johan Santana trade.