OtB Twins Notes (06.01.09)

Charley Walters reports that the Twins are not quite ready to discuss figures with Joe Mauer yet.  Twins Sports Inc president Jerry Bell cited former Twin greats in Kirby Puckett and Kent Hrbek as similar players who accepted lower overall contracts to remain in Minnesota and believes that Mauer will follow suit.  Speculation is that offers could easily reach the $20-mill per year range when teams like the Yankees and Red Sox reach for their checkbooks.  This is not too far from his current production value.  According to Fangraphs.com evaluation, Mauer was worth $22.4 million in his 2006 season and $26.4 million last year despite being paid $6.4 million and so far in 2009, Mauer's obliterating his previous worth by providing $11.9 million in May alone.  Bell says contract negotiations will transpire after the All Star break. 

 

A strained right groin landed shortstop Nick Punto on the 15-day DL.  After signing Punto to a two-year, $8 million contract in hopes of solidifying their shortstop position, the Twins have received seriously below average offensive output thus far in 2009 (in case you were wondering, by the Fangraphs.com's system Punto currently owes the Twins $1.6 million of production).  The league-average for a shortstop has been .274/.329/.385 as Punto and Brendan Harris have supplied a meager .226/.307/.228 for Minnesota.  Early rumors suggest that Pittsburgh's Jack Wilson, Cleveland's Jhonny Peralta and Toronto's John McDonald might be available on the trade market, none of whom are the least bit intriguing if the Twins decided to go that route. 

 

La Velle E Neal says right fielder Michael Cuddyer left the second inning of Sunday's game with a strained right index finger and will be day-to-day with his injury.  "It was a little stiff from [Saturday] night," Cuddyer said. "I came in this morning and it was a little sore. Then I fouled a ball down the left-field line and it just blew up."  Cuddyer has been on a torrid pace in the month of May hitting .315/.398/.657 with eight home runs, three triples and seven doubles adding 26 RBIs in 108 at-bats.  His 1.056 OPS for May was third on the team trailing Joe Mauer (1.338) and Justin Morneau (1.056).   

 

Kelsie Smith notes that Francisco Liriano's days in the rotation might be numbered as Glen Perkins gets set to return from the DL after some rehab starts.  Pitching coach Rick Anderson believes that Liriano's struggles with runners on base is due to mental issues rather than mechanical ones (opponents are lugging .614 off of the lefty when there are runners but slugging just .415 when the bases are empty).  When asked if the Twins would consider sending Liriano to a sports psychologist, manager Ron Gardenhire told reporters that it is "a touchy subject. It's not an easy thing. We've had players do that before. We have doctors that, if we think this is becoming a real mental issue for them, yeah. Those options are always available if a guy is really, really struggling, and if you have to do that, you have to do that. I would think that my pitching coach is probably better at that stuff. Mentally, he can relate to players as good as anybody, and he's got a calming influence on them."

 

Last week, Yahoo! Sports's Gordon Eves listed the Twins among potential suitors for Red Sox starter Brad Penny.  With Scott Baker and Francisco Liriano at a combined 4-13 with a 6.48 ERA, the Twins may want to consider some outside help but Penny's 5-1 record aside, he's not an upgrade.  Currently sporting a 5.63 ERA, Penny's strikeout rate is down to 5.6 K/9 and has averaged under six innings per start.  The record looks pristine because of 6.17 runs of support comes in handy while opponents slug .522 off of you.

 

Twins farm director Jim Rantz -- along with Paul Molitor and Tom Kelly -- was in Rochester scouting the team that has been playing poorly as of late raleys Jim Mandelaro.  The Red Wings are having offensive issues with Matt Macri (.193 BA), Brock Peterson (.159), Trevor Plouffe (.224) and Jason Pridie (.224).  Rantz appears confident in Macri and Pridie's ability to rebound from the slow start given their longevity at the AAA level.  

 

Former KFAN personality and current Your Voices writer at the Star Tribune, Doogie Wolfson, echoed the sentiment that Steve Phillips is a moron when it comes to making comments on baseball teams.  

 

Include Matt Garza on the list of people tired of hearing about the trade that sent him to Tampa Bay in 2007: "It's over and done with," Garza said. "I was a Twin two years ago. I'm a Ray now, and I'm more about the here and now. I have bigger things to worry about, my mentality, how I'm going to approach this outing."

 

Twins lacking a true leadoff hitter?

Former Mets general manager and current ESPN commentator Steve Phillips mentioned during the seventh inning of ESPN's Sunday Night Baseball broadcast of the Twins/Brewers game that Minnesota was swiftly becoming a complete team with one exception: a true leadoff hitter.  Phillips gestured that the Twins do have Denard Span in that role but that he thinks of Span more as a "seventh hitter".  This was an interesting assessment of what has been viewed locally as the best leadoff hitter the Twins have seen since the departure of Chuck Knoblauch.  Piquing my curiosity, I had to figure out what would inspire Phillips, someone who has access to data and analysis, to make such a comment?  Have we as Twins fans been fooling ourselves on the importance of Span at the top of the lineup?
  

Through Monday, Span was hitting .302/.390/.407 (above the leadoff-average of .268/.343/.407) making his current value derived from his on-base ability much higher then that of your common leadoff man.  True, his walk rate of 10% is just league-average indicating that his .390 on-base percentage is slightly inflated by a sturdy .338 batting average on balls in play.  Then again, Span managed to maintain similar numbers in 2008 under the same pretenses.  As a quick groundball/line drive hitter, it stands to reason that Span's BABIP would be higher than league average. 

 

His walk rate aside, Span has a patient and selective approach to the plate.  He is tied for eighth in the American League in lowest swinging percentage (38%) which has led to a very good 3.94 pitches per plate appearance.  He does not strike out much but when he does, he goes down looking.  In fact 62 percent of his strikeouts are looking which leads the league and as such his selectivity has resulted in 16 of his 26 punchouts.  As an admission there are far greater sins than to strikeout looking, even Phillips should know that.  Span also has great contact ability, connecting on 93 percent of his swings.  Only Toronto's leadoff man, Marco Scutaro, holds a better contact rate than Span (Scutaro is also the AL's leading walks leader). 

 

Phillips never did reveal what about Span's approach made him balk at his candidacy as a leadoff hitter.  If I had to speculate why he felt as such, my guess would center on his runs scored total.  In the first month of the season, Span scored just 10 times - a byproduct of the lack of production in the order behind him.  In comparison, Scutaro scored 24 times for the Blue Jays while the Rangers' Ian Kinsler scored 18 times.  Span got himself on base nearly 40% of his plate appearances yet was frequently stranded.  In many ways, Span's run scored numbers in April was like that of Joe Nathan without any save opportunities.  It is a hard statistic to compile if your offense or the game score isn't compliant. 

 

Does this mean that Span is an ill-suited leadoff man?  Absolutely not.  On base abilities, selectivity and contact.  These are qualities shared by some of the game's better leadoff hitters.  Getting on base that frequently, especially someone with speed like Span, usually leads to huge gains on the scoreboard - even more so when you purge your lineup of your larger out-makers in the number two spot (Casilla, Tolbert).  Since moving the league's best hitter to hit second, Span has scored five times in three games.  Keeping Joe Mauer batting second will ensure that Phillips never underestimates Span's skills again. 

Award Context: Rod Carew's 1977 MVP

Rod Carew's path to the bigs was far from ordinary:  Born on a train in the Panama Canal Zone and receiving his name from the Jewish physician that delivered him, Carew's family immigrated to New York where he attended George Washington High School (the same school as Manny Ramirez). It was there while playing semi-pro ball in the Bronx that he would be discovered by a Minnesota Twins' scout.  "In Manhattan, we lived about two blocks from the old Polo Ground," Carew told columnist Ed Rumill in 1967, "The Mets were playing there then, in 1963.  But offers came from other clubs.  The Red Sox, White Sox, Yankees, Pirates, Tigers and Twins all talked to me about signing.  The Yanks and Pirates invited me to tryout camps, but I didn't go.  I worked out with the Twins when they came to New York."

 

Carew would burst onto the Major League scene, quickly ascending to Minnesota in 1967 after three years in the minors.  A UPI reporter would credit much of the team's success that season to the nimble infielder, writing "[t]he slim Carew, whose dash and hitting ability has been a prime factor in the Minnesota Twins' pennant contention this year, has already gained one important laurel in his freshman campaign, namely being selected to the starting All-Star team, the only rookie so honored."  His first of many All-Star appearances was just a prelude to his eventual Rookie of the Year award, hitting .292 with 8 home runs and 51 RBIs while batting second for a Twins team that would finish 91-71 - one game behind the American League pennant winning Red Sox. 

 

From 1968 through 1976, between the ages of 22 and 30, Carew would hit .332, winding up a perennial All-Star, MVP candidate and winning the American League batting title in five of those nine seasons.  It was 1977 and his quest for .400, however, that would solidify Carew's presence in the annals of baseball history.  That season Carew would get off to a great start, hitting .349/.412/.512 in his first 21 games.  On April 30th, Tigers pitcher Dave Roberts took exception to Minnesota's six early runs and would plunk Carew in his second plate appearance of the game.  Carew, a tenacious competitor, would retaliated by throwing a punch at Roberts and be excused from the remainder of the game.  A month later on June 26th, on Rod Carew Jersey Day at Metropolitan Stadium no less, Carew would go 4-for-5, scoring five times and driving in six thanks to a grand slam to push his average above .400 to .403 for the first time that season.  For an encore the next night, the 31-year-old Carew would steal home for the 16th time in his career against the visiting Brewers.     

 

The remarkable average notwithstanding, Carew was also on pace to break two prestigious offensive records: George Sisler's 55-year-old record of 257 hits and Joe Jackson's record of 26 triples set in 1912. Carew became a national sensation.  Baseball fans across the country took notice and elected him to his 11th straight All-Star game - setting a record for most votes ever (4.29 million votes).  Shortly thereafter, Time Magazine placed him on their cover declaring him the game's best hitter.  Sport Illustrated trotted out Ted Williams from his New England fishing hole to deem Carew the only batter alive worthy of being included in the .400 club.  Ballplayers in both leagues would marvel at his abilities.  White Sox shortstop Alan Bannister would note "He's the only guy I know who can go 4-for-3" while Royals center fielder Amos Otis conjured up a down-home proverb, suggesting that "trying to sneak a pitch past him is like trying to sneak the sunrise past a rooster."  Don Sutton, then a Los Angeles Dodger, perhaps echoed the feelings of National League pitchers everywhere in response to interleague game proposals: "I hope it comes a) after I have retired or b) after Rod Carew has retired." 

Carew would cool off in August (comparatively) and he would start the season's final month with a .378 average, making the .400-mark all but out of reach.  Even as the Twins toiled away in fourth place, Carew hit .439 in September to finish the year with a .388 average.  At the conclusion of the 1977 season, Carew would be at the top or near the top of the leaderboard in almost every major category:

 

• His .388 batting average would top the next closest finisher in the American League, teammate Lyman Bostock, by 52 points and winning his sixth batting title.  Not only that, but his .388 average would be the highest in twenty years (matching Ted Williams's 1957 average). 
• His .449 on-base percentage would be the best in the AL. (Because he was on base consistently and batting in front of Larry Hisle, Hisle was able to finish first with 119 RBIs). 
• Carew's sudden outburst of power, a surprising .570 slugging percentage, would be second only to Boston's Jim Rice's .593.  
• His OPS of 1.019 was baseball's best, beating out George Foster of the Red's 1.013. 
• Carew's 128 runs scored was 22 more than Carlton Fisk's 106.  
• His 239 hits would be the most since Heinie Manush had 241 in 1928.     
• His 16 triples would be the most in the AL.
• Carew was intentionally walked 15 time by opposing teams, the most by any AL batter.

   

The Twins found themselves well out of postseason contention but Carew's performance was more than enough to secure him his first and only MVP award as his season was undoubtedly one of the all-time greatest in a Twins or any other team's uniform.  His 1977 season was the first in a three-year contract with the Twins - a contract that was viewed as as an outrageous steal for one of the game's most preeminent hitters.  During his run at .400, it was pointed out that Carew's $170,000 a year was well-below that of similar talent Joe Morgan ($400,000) and Steve Garvey ($333,000).  Following his MVP season, Carew watched as two teammates in Hisle and Bostock were allowed to leave via free agency, signifying the long-harbored sentiment that the Twins have little interest in retaining high-priced players (My how things change).  In the 1977-1978 offseason, Twins owner Calvin Griffith would go on record as saying "If I ever traded Rod Carew, I might as well hop on a plane and get out of Minnesota."  Griffith kept his word until January 1979 when the Twins traded Carew to California for Ken Landreaux, Dave Engle, Brad Havens and Paul Hartzell. 

     

Gomez's plate discipline improving, Young still needs work

Beginning the season as Ron Gardenhire’s pariah, center fielder Carlos Gomez spent the latter portion of April watching left fielder Delmon Young turn routine plays into extra bases.  When afforded the opportunity to play, Gomez displayed dazzling defense but a mind-bogglingly bad approach to the plate.  Young, on the other hand, would be terrible at both.  So as Gomez’s superior defense rotted on the bench, only to be called upon as a late innings substitute, Young was given the lion’s share of playing time.  Ultimately, the decision to play Young over Gomez is all that much more curious when you consider that the pair have been the exact same hitter. 

 

In the initial month of the season Gomez showed no indication that he had a better understanding of the strike zone or had improved his pitch recognition.  In almost a continuation of last year, pitchers would set him up with breaking stuff well outside the strike zone and the eager outfielder would flail with little hope of contact (just 43.5 percent) resulting in 11 punchouts in 44 plate appearances and a .195 batting average in April.  As bad as Gomez was, Young was actually worse.  Aside from Jose Morales, Young swung at the highest amount of pitches outside the zone in the month of April (37.8 percent) and, moreover, made less contact with those pitches (37.8 percent) and wound up striking out in 15 of his 58 plate appearances.  What seemingly gave Young the advantage is that he had several more balls bleed through the infield thus giving the appearance of a better hitter than Gomez with a .241 batting average.   

April	PA	OOZ swing%	K%	BB%	BAVG
Gomez	44	32.9	26.8	6.8	.195
Young	58	37.8	27.8	3.6	.241

This current month Young and Gomez have the same amount of plate appearances and, once again, Young’s better average gives the look of a better hitter.  A closer inspection reveals that Young’s .345 average is boosted by a .455 batting average on balls in play –- an unsustainable figure considering he had a 60 percent groundball rate –- while his chase numbers basically stayed the same (with the exception of putting more of those chased pitches into play).  Gomez, meanwhile, trimmed the number of swings outside the zone down significantly and because of which, he drew more walks.  What makes this transformation all that more impressive is that Gomez has seen the amount of non-fastball offerings increase from 48 percent in April to 55 percent in May, yet he would lay off the enticing off-speed stuff.    

 

May	PA	OOZ swing%	K%	BB%	BAVG
Gomez	32	16.7	20.0	13.8	.320
Young	32	28.6	24.1	6.5	.345

With Young on bereavement leave, Gomez is demonstrating that his consistent presence in the lineup is a boon to his production.  Undoubtedly his improved pitch comprehension is directly associated with his regular playing time but having Gomez in the field for nine innings rather then as defensive replacement at the end of the ballgame is beneficial for the pitching staff.  True, he is still an eager outfielder who will hack at the first pitch following seven-straight balls and other miscellaneous youthful mental errors but his recent plate approach marks noteworthy progress from the key dividend of the Johan Santana trade.   

 

OtB Twins Notes (05.18.09)

Even with the loss, the Joe Mauer-Brett Gardner play was sick.  Swine flu sick.  (Editor's note: it would feel much better if it happened in a Twins' win.)  According to the Star-Ledger's Colin Stephenson the Yankees center fielder Gardner, who Mauer tagged with a diving save attempting to score in the bottom of the ninth, believed Mauer was throwing to first on the play.  "I didn't really think he was going to hold on to the ball, to be honest with you,'' Gardner said. "I thought he was going to throw it to first, and if he had, I would have been able to get home a little easier than what ended up happening.''  Gardner added advice that teammate Nick Swisher shared with him, "[he] was telling me I should have hit the brakes, because he would have dove right past me."

 

Yankees manager and former catcher Joe Girardi was also in awe of the play telling reporters "This is a young man that is an incredible player. He could have went to probably any college and been a quarterback; you see what he does with the bat - two batting titles in the last three years, his defense is very good - he's an all-star player every day when he goes out on the field. And the athleticism he showed to get a very speedy runner is incredible.''  Girardi failed to add: "He'd look great in pinstripes next year."

 

The three consecutive walk-off wins against the Yankees wasn't the first time for the Twins in their history says New York Daily News's Jesse Spector.  The Twins first lost three straight walk-off games to the Yankees in August 1961.  Of course, circumstances were vastly different that year as the Twins entered that series 46-58, 21 games out of first place, while the Yankees were 67-37, holding off the Tigers by a game-and-a-half lead.  The Twins would finish that year 4-14 in games against the eventually World Series champion Yankees.    

 

Why did Mark Teixieria blow up at Carlos Gomez in the eighth inning on Saturday night following bang-bang play at first base?  "It was a situation twice in the same game, the guy is running in the infield grass going up the first-base line, trying to get in my way, the catcher's way and the second time there is a collision. No reason for it," Teixiera told reporters after the game. "Same guy. It happens one time. It might be a mistake but when you know the guy is purposely running on the grass . . . I've seen a lot of first basemen ruin seasons, ruin careers. I got lucky that I could get out of the way." Clearly this was an over-exaggeration of a player that had been frustrated and struggling as of late since signing his massive contract as Teixiera was hitting just .203 coming into the Twins series.   

 

There have been two instances in which intentional walk situations have burned the Twins this series.  On Friday in the bottom of the ninth with two runners on, the Twins opted to walk Robinson Cano, who was 11-for-57 (.193) in the month of May, to have Joe Nathan pitch to Melky Cabrera, who was 15-for-49 (.306) that month.  Cabrera, of course, would lace the single to left-center to score two runs.  One day later, the Twins had similar circumstances with Nick Blackburn in the eighth inning of Saturday's game.  With two outs and the tying run on third, Blackburn could have faced Teixiera - who was slugging .625 on the month in addition to him being 5-for-5 against Blackburn - or Alex Rodriguez - who was slugging just .385 on the month and had hit 3-for-9 against Blackburn.  The Twins would allow Teixiera to hit and he would knock in the tying run to push the game into extra innings (at which point A-Rod would hit his walk-off). 

 

Joe Christensen reports that the Twins have been looking within the system to repair the bullpen which is now in dire need of attention.  The relief staff has failed in critical situations and have been taxed to the point of exhaustion.  Coming into Sunday's game against the Yankees, the Twins had allowed 47% of inherited runners to score, the second highest in the league (average being 38%), while manager Ron Gardenhire has used his pitchers on consecutive days a league-leading 25 times.  Candidates include Rochester's Sean Henn and Bobby Keppel while speculation surrounds Luis Ayala as the potential odd-man out if someone is brought up soon. 

 

The 28-year-old Sean Henn is an attractive internal left-handed option.  In 24 innings spread out across 15 appearances Henn has struck out 32 while walking 10 - limiting opponents to a .187 batting average against.  The 6-foot-4 Henn - who Christensen writes is touching 95-mph on the radar gun - has been lights-out when facing left-handed batters.  In 36 match-ups against lefties, Henn has struck out 15 while walking just one and getting groundballs on more than 60% of balls in play.  He does not exercise the same invincibility against right-handed opponents as his control has been a bit shakier.  If the Twins curb his right-handed exposure at the major league level, Henn stands a chance of being a very good LOOGY for the ballclub.     

 

ESPN's Peter Gammons indicates that Huston Street, Russ Springer, Jose Valverde, John Grabow and Danys Baez might be available now that their respective teams have fallen quickly out of contention.  The Twins had offseason aspirations of Russ Springer who eventually selected the Oakland Athletics over the Twins because of their west coast setting and larger financial offering.  The 40-year-old Springer is having a good season for the A's, throwing 16 innings and striking out 18 with an ERA of 2.25. 

 

What about Anthony Slama and Rob Delany in New Britain?  Christensen says that the Twins feel that the pair are not quite ready to move up to the bigs but The Hartford Courant's John Altavilla provides the Rock Cats manager Tom Neito's take on the late inning duo.

 

Tom Powers visits a topic that has been of concern for the Twins in recent days: the pitch count.  Powers suggests that the Twins' 100-pitch count for a starter is a detriment to the bullpen, leading to injuries in the relief staff.  Philosophically, this is a much large debate to fit into a handful of words but Powers' argument is fairly weak.  Though I agree that the arbitrary 100-pitch count should have increased flexibility, it has been proven that not monitoring pitch counts have led to various arm injuries over the years.  Even still, the Twins are no more or less sticklers than the rest of the league; consider that the Twins have gone over 100 pitches but under 119 in 15 of 37 starts.  As I alluded to previously, Gardenhire has used pitchers on back-to-back days 25 times.  Durability aside, this is not a starting pitcher issue, it is a game management issue.  What hurts his relievers the most is that Gardenhire's confidence is isolated to just three members when the game is close.  

 

Reliever Pat Neshek, who is out indefinitely for the duration of the 2009 season, speaks to the Star Tribune regarding his transition to veganism and also gives a brief insight to Ron Gardenhire's sense of humor in the clubhouse.  Neshek said "Like Gardy [manager Ron Gardenhire], he'll make fun of me and stick a hot dog in my face and say, "You want to eat this?" A lot of guys are curious."  In the immortal words of Arrested Development's Michael Bluth: There's got to be a better way to say that.  

 

The Twins are pitching in an additional $13 million to add several more features at Target Field including
more bathrooms and a heat supplied main concourse for those obviously cold April and October games along with roof top seating.  According to the Associated Press, the roof top seats will accommodate approximately 150 to 300 fans and be within the confines of the stadium (similar to Fenway Park's Green Monster seats) and reside above the team's administrative offices in left field.  Twins President Dave St. Peter says that with final designs available shortly, but notes the team is even considering adding a fire pit - a quintessential component of Minnesotan summers - to the experience. 

 

The City Page's Judd Spicer writes that Joe Mauer 's 672 career hits rest with very good company among fellow baseballers' first 572 games.

 

Mankato Free Press's Ed Thoma has upgraded his baseball blog to begin allowing comments.  His first post in the new format is riddled with rules for commenting.  Score!  Despite writing in one of the far-flung outposts of Minnesota, Thoma has produced one of the state's most insightful commentary outside of the Twin Cities metro area.