The Starting Five: An Analysis of the Twins' Rotation

A brief rundown of the starting rotation through the first 33 games of the season:

 

 

Scott Baker

1-4 Team Record in Starts | 6.83 Runs Allowed | 4.29 Run Support | 43 Game Score Avg

 

27 2/3 innings | 21-to-5 K-to-BB ratio 

.274/.305/.540 Opponent Batting Line

 

The season did not start out the way Baker and the Twins envisioned after signing him to a long-term contract this past offseason.  Shoulder problems delayed the beginning of his 2009 season and when he returned, he began by allowing home runs at an absurd pace - in his first three starts he surrendered a home run every 10 plate appearances - while his 16 earned runs in just 14 innings of work resulted in a 9.82 ERA and a myriad of questions regarding his health and effectiveness.  Baker lasted an average of five innings per start with an opponent average against of .328. 

 

Baker's lateral movement on his slider returned in the month of May and his location of his fastball lowered in the zone.  As such, opponents have begun to chase more pitches (38 percent OOZ in May versus 24 percent in April) and the amount of infield flyballs versus home run flyballs have inverted as well (8 percent IFFB/29 percent HRFB in April starts vs 32 percent IFFB/5 percent HRFB).  His past two starts have been a microcosm of the performance he displayed last year.  Aside from one inning against the Royals on May 3rd Baker has not allowed a run in 12 out of his last 13 innings as opponents have been limited to a .204 batting average.  It is safe to assume that Baker is back on track.  

 

Francisco Liriano

3-4 Team Record in Starts | 6.04 Runs Allowed | 3.79 Run Support | 47 Game Score Avg

 

40 2/3 innings | 33-to-16 K-to-BB ratio 

.250/.328/.441 Opponent Batting Line

 

After going 6-1 with a 60-to-19 K-to-BB ratio and a 2.74 ERA in his 65 innings from August 3rd to September 26th of last year, it was presumed that Liriano would carry this into the next season.  His velocity was back up and his secondary offerings were getting more swing-and-misses but it was a far cry from his 2006 version.  No rational fan assumed that Liriano was waltzing back in through the Dome's revolving doors this year but even still this F-Bomb 2.0 had seemed to have found a way to keep opponents off-balance without the dirty slider.  His first four starts in April were littered with control issues - 9 walks and two hit batsmen in 21 innings with pitches in the zone 44 percent of the time - in addition to that, an overwhelming portion of those baserunners were crossing the plate (57 percent LOB pct) leading to his 6.04 ERA. 

 

In his two most recent starts, Lirano's accuracy has improved (50 percent zone presence) and he has gotten more missed bats at pitches outside of the zone (72 miss percent on swings on swings out of the zone) after increasing the usage of his slider and changeup in the month of May. 

 

Though his overall approach might be different, in Lirano's last start against the Mariners he was tagged for three extra base hits and five earned runs in five innings.  The right-handed batting Mike Sweeney, Jose Lopez and Adrian Beltre accounted for all of the extra base hits.  His one trouble spot is right-handed batters thus far in the season as righties are slugging 123 points higher than the left-handed opponents.  In 2006, Liriano used a diet of non-fastballs (57 percent) against right-handed batters.  Last season Liriano had curbed this (47 percent) while this year has seen him thrown even fewer non-fastballs to them (42 percent).  More non-fastball offerings should help quell this onslaught.       

 

Kevin Slowey

5-2 Team Record in Starts | 4.91 Runs Allowed | 6.79 Run Support | 45 Game Score Avg

 

40 1/3 innings | 27-to-4 K-to-BB ratio 

.337/.352/.547 Opponent Batting Line

 

Slowey's 5-1 record will undoubtedly earn him the reputation as the Twins' best starter to date - which is merited when you look at his K-to-BB ratio - but examining some of his other numbers also indicate that he has been damn lucky too.  True, his three inning loss to Baltimore was cruel and unfair considering the weather-related circumstances, but Slowey has been the benefactor of nearly seven runs of support per start which has helped him grab those five victories in spite of posting Game Scores averaging 45 and opponents slugging .547 off of him.  If that pace continues Slowey will wind up being this season's Glen Perkins.

 

His ability to get ahead (67 percent first pitch strike) and stay ahead (only 11 percent of batters have had three ball counts) has ensured that batters will have to find gaps in the defense to get on base.  In the early portion of the season, there have been more holes than usual as he has an unreasonably high batting average on balls in play (.390) that will drop as the season progresses and with it, the overall average against.    

 

Glen Perkins

2-4 Team Record in Starts | 3.73 Runs Allowed | 3.02 Run Support | 55 Game Score Avg

 

41 innings | 22-to-8 K-to-BB ratio 

.245/.287/.361 Opponent Batting Line

 

So this is what below-average runs support feels like?  A year ago Perkins received 12 wins thanks to 6.23 runs per game.  In his first start of the year, Perkins threw eight innings of one run ball but the Twins failed to score a single run that game.  In his next start he held the surprisingly powerful Toronto Blue Jays lineup to just two runs but was not the pitcher of record when the Twins won the game in the 11th inning. 

 

Perkins has been cuffed around in his last three starts allowing 13 earned runs in 17 innings of work.  Opponents have found seams with groundballs and launched three home runs in that span (as a pitcher that is flyball heavy, this was bound to happen).  What is noteworthy is that his line drive rate is down from a year ago and he has been more successful versus right-handed opponents.  Both of these shifts is courtesy of the increased use of his slider.  In 2008, Perkins used his slider just 4 percent of the time to righties while this year he has thrown it 16 percent of the time.  In turn, righties are hitting just .226, down from .288 last season. 

 

Nick Blackburn

4-3 Team Record in Starts | 5.24 Runs Allowed | 5.04 Run Support | 46 Game Score Avg

 

41 2/3 innings | 19-to-11 K-to-BB ratio 

.285/.326/.401 Opponent Batting Line

 

Nick Blackburn simply does not have the luxury of having his walk rate inflate.  As a contact-oriented pitcher, Blackburn thrives on keeping additional runners off the bases but with his BB/9 up to 2.38 from 1.82 a year ago, it throws this system out of whack.  More baserunners means more runs are likely to cross the plate.  Up until his most recent start, Blackburn possessed a nerve-wracking 13-to-10 K-to-BB ratio, a dangerous ratio for a control pitcher.  If anything, Blackburn's last start against Detroit reaffirmed the notion that he is in control and is able to hit his spots.  Blackburn finished seven innings, allowing just five hits and no runs while tying his career-high strike out of six.

Blackburn's line drive rate is down considerably (15 percent versus 21 percent) while his groundball rate has gone up (48 percent versus 45 percent) which is a good sign from the right-hander.  What Blackburn needs to figure out is how to keep lefties from smashing him around the ballpark (.488 slugging) in addition to what exactly is keeping him from throwing well on the road (.497 slugging away from Dome). 

OtB Twins Notes (5.11.09)

There will be plenty of second-guessing on the removal of starter Nick Blackburn after the seventh inning in the Twins 5-3 loss on Sunday.  Former Twins pitcher and radio analyst Jack Morris questioned lifting Blackburn after 99-pitches, assuming there should have been plenty left in the tank.  This exact formula worked well for the Twins on April 24th against the Cleveland Indians when Blackburn threw seven innings of one-run ball on 99-pitches and gave the ball to left-handed set-up man, Jose Mijares.  Mijares pitched a scoreless eighth inning and relayed the ball to Joe Nathan who would secure the save. 

 

Carlos Gomez, who went 1-for-4 with a highlight reel catch in center to rob Seattle's Endy Chavez of an extra base hit on Sunday, has been the subject of a heated debate among Twins analysts regarding where he is best served playing: Majors or minors.  One camp votes Minnesota - where his defense provides immeasurable value and receives on the job training.  The other says Rochester - where his approach at the plate can be refined and he can return as the complete package.  Both views are not without their merits.  La Velle E Neal notes however that Ron Gardenhire's vote is that Gomez should be in Minnesota for the foreseeable future where he can work with hitting coach Joe Vavra.  "I think this is an opportunity for him to get with Vavra a lot, work on his swing in the cage and do the cage stuff and work on his swing plane and [hitting] breaking balls," Gardenhire said.  This is an interesting comment considering the timing of ESPN.com's Jerry Cransick's latest article on the development of plate discipline.  Cransick notes that "technological advances in scouting allow teams to readily identify and exploit hitters' weaknesses" making it extremely difficult for someone struggling to adjust at that major league level. 

 

Gomez is swinging at a lot of bad pitches.  He is also failing to make contact with them.  The disciplined-challenged Gomez has made contact with just 38.5 percent of pitches he has swung at out of the strike zone (league average for contact is 62.3 percent).  Vavra might want to consider taking a drill out of Cransick's article:  When Nick Swisher was working his way through the Oakland A's system, he worked with hitting instructor Joe Sparks who devised a drill in which Sparks would throw Swisher pitches and Swisher would have to shout "yes" or "no" before the ball reached the plate to improve his pitch recognition. 

     

USA Today reports that manager Ron Gardenhire left the game in the third or fourth inning.  Gardenhire, not feeling well, retreated to his office in the clubhouse where he watched the rest of the 9-6 Twins victory over the Mariners on Saturday night.  The Twins skipper cites a new exercise routine and diet that he has been practicing lately as the cause of the passing illness. 

 

Joe Mauer wants to catch everyday says Sid Hartman.  Undoubtedly, the Twins agree with the sentiment, however it is still a little premature to trot Mauer out there as a catcher six out of seven days.  The Dodgers shortstop Rafael Furcal suffered from a sacroiliac joint sprain (similar to Mauer) that sidelined him in 2007 but reoccurred in 2008.  Furcal exploded out of the gates last season, hitting .366/.448/.597 with five home runs in 32 games before surgery was required that kept him out of the lineup until September.  The Twins should continue to exercise restraint with Mauer catching to avoid a similar fate. 

   

With Alexi Casilla now in rehab-mode in Rochester, Phil Miller informs us that General Manager Bill Smith has no intentions of shopping for a replacement second baseman.  Smith believes that Casilla will have to opportunity to work with Red Wings manager Stan Clinburn who had helped former Twins shortstop Jason Bartlett regain his confidence and composure following a 2006 demotion.  Bartlett would return to the Twins in 2006 and would hit .281/.347/.381 - above-average production from the shortstop position - after his minor league stint.  In three games since being sent to Rochester, Casilla is 6-for-14 (.429) with one triple. 

 

In the same article Miller also raises the point that the Twins' middle infield depth in the minors is shallow - so much so that there is chatter about re-positioning center fielder Ben Revere, currently in Ft Myers (High-A).  Revere has two things that make this transition seem plausible: the first of which is sheer athleticism and the second is an overwhelming amount of high-quality center fielder candidates in Carlos Gomez, Denard Span and Aaron Hicks.  One year removed from flirting with .400 and being awarded the Twins' Minor League Player of the Year, Revere's power has been drained at a more advanced level.  Through 29 games, Revere is batting .308 but is slugging just .350.  His high contact rate and disconcerning eye at the plate makes him an excellent candidate for a move in the Twins' system - if his glove accepts the conversion.   

 

Jim Mandelaro writes that the Twins had released left-handed reliever Ben Julianel to make room for Alexi Casilla.  The 29-year-old Julianel fared well in his stint at New Britain last year when he dismantled opponents half his age, accumulating 26 saves while striking out 78 in 68 1/3 innings with a 2.37 ERA.  Moved up with Rochester for 2009 the lefty struggled posting a 8.18 ERA in 11 innings of work and striking out just 8.  Julianel's future in Minnesota appeared bleak because of his accelerated age but with the recent struggles of Craig Breslow and now Jose Mijares, the Twins may consider pulling up all the left-handed relief help they can getting, including Julianel's former bullpen mates at Rochester Sean Henn (20 innings, 24 Ks) and Mike Gosling (18 1/3 innings, 24 Ks).

 

New Britain Herald's Ken Lipshez talks with general manager Bill Smith regarding his organization after his recent trip to Connecticut.  Smith has taken heat over some of his dealings from both bloggers and mainstream media since his promotion to his current position.  Questions have been raised regarding the Santana and the Garza-Young trade that have not been favorable of the GM.  "I never mind questions and never mind when somebody evaluates a deal," Smith said. "That’s part of baseball. That’s why the media is there to interchange between the ballclub and the fans. Ask questions and provide responses – that doesn’t bother me."

 

Nick Nelson presents a theory that the Twins are playing Delmon Young over Carlos Gomez because they need to inflate his value in order to trade him.  With that in mind, Aaron Gleeman initiates the Free Carlos Gomez movement. 

 

ESPN.com's Tim Kurkjian's latest column provides context of the Twins' general professionalism on the roster.  Kurkjian revisits Michael Cuddyer's humble reaction to being selected 9th overall in the 1997 draft and illuminates how the outfield mainstay has provided leadership within the clubhouse. 

He sucks. We must have him.

Dave Cameron spent yesterday afternoon highlighting Alexi Casilla's suckitude at Fangraphs.com writing "Casilla has driven Minnesota's management nuts with his sloppy plays, his lack of fundamentals, and his general underachievement" and adding "his OPS by month has declined every single month since last May, where he went from great to good to okay to really bad to miserable to holy crap we've seen enough."  In other words, garbage.   

He finishes by insinuating that Casilla's time in Minnesota is probably over and that the second baseman could stand to have a change of scenery.  Understandable, considering Casilla's mental lapses may have reached the room of Gardenhire's dog house that was previously reserved for the likes of Kyle Lohse and JC Romero - a pair that found a one-way ticket out of the Humphrey Terminal at the earliest convenience.  If the Twins are currently convincing themselves that Casilla is not a long-term answer at second - be it because of talent or attitude or irreconcilable managerial differences - then if they can get something useful in return, I'm game.  But who would want to acquire a player like Casilla with his offensive statistics in a complete freefall and has more cringe-worthy mental lapses than Miss South Carolina?  According to Cameron at his mothership website USSMariner.com, Seattle does!  Cameron urges the Mariners' general manager to contact Bill Smith to inquiry what it would take to land Casilla. 

In Cameron's vision, the Mariners offer their starting shortstop, Yuniesky Betancourt, who is in jeopardy of losing his starting job to Ronny Cedeno for Casilla.  "Yuniesky", of course, is Spanish for "Swing".  The Mariners' have gone weary of Betancourt's overzealous approach to the plate, averaging just 3.1 balls per plate appearance (If you thought Delmon Young chased bad pitches, Betancourt has swung at 44 percent of all balls thrown outside the zone).  So far in 105 plate appearances in 2009 Betancourt has drawn just one walk.  For better or worse, the Twins place less emphasis on drawing walks system-wide so this information might not be a deterrent, but it should. 

 

True, Betancourt displays some of the characteristics that the Twins crave (not striking out, tons of contact, speed) and Cameron adds "[t]he things that he fails at - drawing walks, working counts, living up to his defensive reputation - are the things that the Twins value less than anyone else in baseball. Betancourt and the Twins are a match made in heaven. He’s their kind of player. No other organization in the game will see as much value in Yuni as the Twins."  But do the Twins really need help at short defensively?  By most metrics, Nick Punto is far superior of a gloveman than Betancourt.  According to the UZR/150, Betancourt is a -27.5, third worst in the game, while Punto is 11, the fifth best in the game. 

 

The proposal gets worse as Cameron suggest that the Twins add reliever Jose Mijares to even the deal.  Yes, ADD.  If trading one young, expensive out-machine for a young, inexpensive out-machine isn't objectionable enough, Cameron recommends that Smith toss in Mijares, arguably the best relief option in the 'pen, to "even the deal".  Outside of swimming in a sea of swine flu-infected medical waste, there is nothing less appealing than adding Yuniesky Betancourt at the expense of Casilla and (especially) Mijares. 

 

Cameron's thesis is sound - Casilla should be traded if he is indeed destined for Gardenhire's version of playing time purgatory - however what the Twins do not need more of is free-swingers in the lineup. 

Casilla out; Tolbert in.

The Twins demoted second baseman Alexi Casilla to Triple-A Rochester recalling Matt Tolbert to assume his roster spot reports the Star Tribune.   The move is not all too surprising, though it does contradict recent comments by manager Ron Gardenhire who just this past weekend stated that he did not wish to "ship [Casilla] to somebody else because he was not hitting right now." 

 

This about-face was most likely incited by Casilla's defensive shortcoming in recent games. His offensive woes followed him on to the field, too.  Following a play in which Casilla did not throw home on a cut on Tuesday night, allowing Tigers catcher Gerald Laird score, Justin Morneau told reporters after the 9-0 whitewashing "A lot of them are mental mistakes that don't show up as errors, like not thinking to throw the ball home. Not thinking of the play ahead of time before it happens."  Gardenhire can stand idly by while a player struggles at the plate, but when those struggles are carried on to the field, it is time for adjustments. 

 

Casilla's continued failure in a vital spot in the batting order amplified his struggles.  After making 13 valuable sacrifice hits last year, Casilla has yet to prove that he can even lay a bunt down.  On Monday, his lack of hustle ended up as a Tigers' double play. Up until this point, Casilla was 14-for-84 (.167) with just two extra base hits on the year.  At the plate, his discipline appeared lacking in the first month.  His chase rate for pitches outside of the zone was up to 34 percent, well above his 25 percent a year ago (and the league-average of 24 percent).  Because of his poor pitch selection, his contact suffered, resulting in more infield pop flies. 

 

Tolbert provides above-average versatile defense, giving Gardenhire another utility infielder that can support Brendan Harris and Nick Punto at the middle infield positions.  At the plate, Tolbert is a prototypical line drive hitter with a smattering of power.  Seven of his 25 hits at Rochester this far have gone for extra bases. After an injury sidelined him in May, Tolbert returned in September to go 10-for-30 (.333) with three triples in 11 games. 

 

With the left-handed Mark Hendrickson on the mound for the Orioles tonight, the Twins will likely use Harris at second base and in Casilla's spot in the order.

OtB Twins Notes (05.04.09)

Joe Christensen says the Twins sent catcher Jose Morales to Rochester after they activated Jesse Crain from the 15-day DL.  Morales has been a decent contributor in Joe Mauer's absence, hitting .349/.391/.419 going into Sunday's game but allowed 13 of 14 would-be base stealers to gain an extra base.  There will be some dissension regarding demoting what happens to be the third-best hitter on the team to the minors, but Morales's average was unsustainable (he possesses a highly-inflated .405 batting average on balls in play) and was bound to watch his numbers drop like the stock market as his plate appearances increased.  With the 38-year-old Mike Redmond on the last year of his contract and unlikely to return to the team as a player in 2010, it is nice to know there is someone in Triple-A that is a capable catching caddy for Mauer's days off.    

 

After getting an MRI performed on his shoulder last Wednesday, catcher Mike Redmond told reporters that "they found a Bud Light in there."  Phil Miller tells us that the backup catcher's quip pleased the people over at Anheuser-Busch, enjoying the free promotion in a tough economy (the quote wound up in both Twin Cities papers and twinsbaseball.com), that the company is rumored to have supplied Redmond with a few bottles for personal consumption.   

 

The Twins decision to send reliever Juan Morillo to the minors was a sound one.  Though his potential upside is certainly intriguing -- getting comparisons ranging from Detroit's Joel Zumaya to Durham's Nuke Laroosh --his walk rate flirts with the "pitching while blindfolded" territory.  Even with Rick Anderson working with Morillo in bullpen sessions, Morillo's type of repair would have been too consuming for Anderson to correct during the season.  Still, if nothing else, Morillo's 100.3-mph pitch in April was the fastest recorded in the season's opening month.

 

Ron Gardenhire reiterated that he has no immediate designs on sending Alexi Casilla back to Rochester for more work after beginning the season.   "We're [25] games into the season. I think you start one way, you give it a little bit here. We have to get Lexi to play better, not just ship him to somebody else because he's not hitting right now," the manager told Joe Christensen.  His Sunday benching aside, Casilla stung several line drive outs on Saturday night from the left-side of the plate, an indication that he might be beginning to zero in on the ball better.  Matt Tolbert, a potential replacement for Casilla at Triple-A, is struggling at the plate as well, hitting 18-for-84 (.214) with a .290 on-base percentage.     

 

In the aftermath of Boston's Jacoby Ellsbury's steal of home off of New York's Andy Pettite  (and Royals' catcher Miguel Olivo's botched attempt on Saturday night), Dom Amore revisits 1969 and the master of home stealing, Rod Carew, and his seven swipes of the plate that season.  It was rookie manager Billy Martin's idea in the spring to exploit both Carew's speed and the league's indifference to pitching from the stretch with a runner on third.  Martin and Carew would run the drill over and over, timing a pitcher's wind-up as Carew would break for home.  Carew would go 7-for-9 in his quest of stealing home but a leg injury would keep him from getting more.       

 

In an otherwise minor transaction, the Twins traded Double-A New Britain outfielder Joe Gaetti to the Texas Rangers for a player-to-be-named-later.  Gaetti, the son of Twins great Gary Gaetti, has proven that he has tons of pop but does not play any position particularly well (he got his mother's defensive gene).  At the time of the trade, the 27-year-old Gaetti was hitting just .179 (5-for-36) with a brutal 14/1 K/BB ratio which makes it hard to provide roster space to an aging prospect that is no longer hitting.

  

Former Twin fan favorite Lew Ford has resurfaced with the Long Island Ducks of the Independent Atlantic League after being released by the Colorado Rockies following spring training reports Newday's Cody Derespina.  To add insult to injury, after being released by the Rockies Ford accepted the Ducks' offer in April and loaded his truck up to drive from Florida only to have the vehicle breakdown en route.  "His truck broke down in some podunk town and they wanted to charge him an arm and a leg for it and now he's got to have [the truck] shipped," Former MLB catcher and current Duck manager Gary Carter said. "So I'm sure he's got a lot of things on his mind, and once that works its way out, he'll get back to basics and play." Ford was a big contributor on the 2004 Twins team and batted .299/.381/.446 (.827 OPS) with 15 home runs and 72 RBIs while stealing 20 bases as a 27-year-old.  His plate discipline eroded quickly in the next several seasons as his walk rate dropped from 10.2 percent in 2004 to 7.6 percent in 2005 to 6.3 percent in 2006 and with it, his on-base percentage slid from .381 in 2004 to .287 in 2006 making his inevitable breakup an easy decision.   

 

Twins pitching prospect Bobby Lanigan is having a super start to the 2009 season in Low-A Beloit, not allowing a run in 11 consecutive innings.  In four starts, Lanigan is 2-0 in 22 innings with a 3.68 ERA while maintaining a 21/5 K/BB ratio and a 54 percent groundball rate.  Drafted in the third round in 2008, Lanigan, a Staten Island, NY-native, has had a rough transition after losing his father late last year. Jay Price of the Staten Island Advance has a must read article on how the Lanigan's are coping in the patriarch's absence. 

 

He does not throw 100-mph like Morillo, but last year's first round draft pick Shooter Hunt is having the same type of control problems but at Low-A Beloit.  Hunt added six more walks and two wild pitches to his numbers in his most recent start bringing his total to 29 walks in 14 2/3 innings of work.  Left-handed batters seem to be giving the right-handed Hunt the most problems as he has walked 11 of them and struck out just three.

 

Former Twin and current Tampa Bay Ray Matt Garza took a crack at the decision to construct an outdoor stadium in Minnesota.  After going 1-10 with a 5.91 ERA in 13 career starts at the Dome, Garza wished the facility a fond farewell but questioned the choice of not having a roof.  "Not one of the smartest moves I've seen in baseball." Garza told the St Petersburg Times, "Just weather-wise, it will be great in June, July and August, but into September, April, May it's going to be horrible. And if they get into the postseason, it's even worse. Usually you build a park to benefit your team, the home team. But that's just going to hurt, because they're going to have to pitch more in the cold than anyone else."

 

Speaking of the Rays, apparently with the new Target Field opening up in a few months, the Twins are unwilling to invest any more money into the Metrodome.  In spite of renaming their team the "Rays" more than a year ago and taking every opportunity to reiterate the image makeover, the Twins still have a sign place above the visitor's clubhouse that reads "Tampa Bay Devil Rays" on the name plate.  On the last game, the visiting team placed white tape over "Devil" to drive the point home.