Repairing the Twins lineup.

Through the first 20 games, the Minnesota Twins share the dubious honor of having the American League's least productive offense with the Kansas City Royals (4.05 R/G).  While there are numerous sources for this dip in production, ranging from Joe Mauer’s absence to the lethargy of the right-handed bats, there appears to be an easily identifiable and correctable modification to the lineup that would improve the offense: remove Alexi Casilla from the number two spot.

 

As I alluded to yesterday, Bill James’s research shows that a bunched lineup (a lineup constructed with the best hitters grouped together) is the most optimal alignment of the talent.  Taking it one step further, James noted in his 1986 Abstract that the correlation of run production and the position in the batting order is strongest to that of the number two hitter.  The 2009 Twins have a .515 OPS out of this slot (thanks to Brendan Harris).  Only the lowly Royals have less production with their .499 OPS from their two hitters.  The two most potent offenses, Texas and Toronto, also share the highest two spot production with .951 and .867 OPS respectively. 

 

Under the current structure, the Twins are sending Denard Span (.737 OPS but a robust .378 OBP), Casilla (.456 OPS), Justin Morneau (.868 OPS) and Jason Kubel (.941 OPS) in sequence to the plate.  Casilla stands out as the weak link.  For a two hitter, Casilla has demonstrated borderline plate discipline.  He exercises the highest chase percentage among qualifying second baseman (39 percent out of zone swings) resulting in a high quantity of groundballs.  His 64 percent of worm-burners on balls in play is a league-leader and nearly half of his pop flies (46 percent infield/fly ball) are not even leaving the infield area (also the highest total in MLB).  Speed has been his saving grace as he has legged out three infield hits to keep his batting average above .150. 

 

Among other things, Casilla has been an absolute out-machine.  His .456 OPS is lowest in the American League among those with a minimum of 60 plate appearances and behind only the Giants’ immortal Emmanuel Burriss (.433 OPS) and the Padres’ Brian Giles (.454 OPS) in all of baseball.  This productivity is reminiscent of Nick Punto’s appalling 2007 season – except Punto managed to maintain a .566 OPS through the first 20 games of that season but the Twins scored just 4.60 R/G.   By the end of May, Punto and his sub-.600 OPS were booted down to the eighth and ninth positions in the order but by then it was too late for the Twins as the team would finish 63-67.

 

In 2008, when Casilla hit .313/.351/.424 in 273 plate appearances through July 28^th, it caught most people by surprise.  At three seasons at the Triple-A level, Casilla had hit .257/.344/.316 in 532 PAs, not lending an indication that he was capable of slugging above .400.  Following an injury in July Casilla’s batting line reverted to.225/.302/.289 in 164 PAs after his return to the lineup in August.  Most people convinced themselves that Casilla’s abilities were closer to his first portion of the season rather than the latter.  In truth, his actual production probably lies in-between the two samplings. 

 

The options for Gardenhire are limited.  When the Twins face a left-handed pitcher, Brendan Harris is a decent solution (career .792 OPS versus LHP), but Harris’s defense at second is a downgrade from Casilla.  Catcher Jose Morales is another candidate for the two-spot as his .839 OPS is currently third on the team while hitting line drives 35 percent of the time. 

 

These both are short-term answers to a long-term problem however.  Harris is a streaky hitter and Morales's produrct is sure to curtail as his line drive rate regresses back to the norm.  The definitive remedy lies on the man returning on May 1^st.  Inserting the career .856 OPS hitter in Joe Mauer into the second slot ensures additional at-bats for the team’s best hitter and provides a continuation of the four best hitters on the Twins’ roster.

OtB Twins Notes (4.27.09)

When Indians starting right-hander Carl Pavano struck out Michael Cuddyer to open up the 2nd inning on Saturday night, it was the first right-handed batter Pavano had retired through a strike out all year.  Pavano has struck out 16 in 18 innings but just the lone righty.  Heading into Sunday's game, the Twins right fielder was batting a weak .224/.330/.369 while striking out in 22.4% of his total plate appearances.  Pitch selection appears to be his biggest detriment as his out-of-zone swing percent of 29.2 now ranks as the 5th most prevalent outfielder in the American League in chase tendencies (minimum 70 plate appearances).

 

KFAN's Phil Mackey examines Scott Baker's release point which varies from his 2008 position.  This is an excellent "cause" to the "effect" that I highlighted after his first start in which his pitches were elevated and his slider lacked bite, leading to very little chase (19.4 pct) and very high home run-to-fly ball ratios (48 pct).  It stands to reason that this lower release spot could be responsible for inability to keep the ball down in the strike zone and simple bullpen adjustments could correct this however there exists the possibility that the altered arm slot manifest itself because of a nagging injury.  Baker will get the start tonight against the Tampa Bay Rays at the Metrodome.   

 

In the wake of the Twins' bullpen inconsistances (6.52 ERA, 47% Inherited Runners Scored) and injuries (Pat Neshek, Boof Bonser, Jesse Crain), Kelsie Smith offers insight from a Baseball Prospectus study that showed just four relievers have maintained levels of stability since 2004 (one being Joe Nathan).  Indians general manager Mark Shapiro commented that the way to build a better bullpen is by "maintaining flexibility by not allowing yourself to get (saddled) with multiyear deals, having lots of alternatives and building the deepest farm system humanly possible with pitching so that you have the luxury and the ability to take some of your better arms and use them in the pen as well as starting."  Aside from Joe Nathan, the only member of the bullpen with a multiyear contract is Jesse Crain.  For all of the time missed in 2008 and this season, Crain is 7-6 with a 4.24 ERA in 85 innings, striking out 66 while walking 33 since signing his three-year deal in February of 2007 worth $3.75 million. 

 

If anyone thought trying to play musical outfielders was not going to have any reprocussions, I submit Exhibit A:  Carlos Gomez has been "noticably upset and depressed about his production" said Gardenhire.  Gomez was batting .205/.244/.308 with an inhumane 0.18 BB/K ratio (tied with Delmon Young for lowest among outfielders with a minimum of 30 plate appearances) prior to Sunday's game and sat three straight games.  When he does make contact, he maintains a 20% line drive rate indicating that he has experienced some bad luck giving him steadier playing time would go a long way towards improving his demeanor and batting average (not to mention the outfield defensive coverage).  In addition to his playing time greatly reduced, Gomez also has his first child on the way. 

 

Second baseman Alexi Casilla's woes continued against left-handed pitching.  After striking out against Cleveland's Rafael Perez in the sixth inning of Saturday's game, Casilla's RHB line dropped to .059/.059/.059 against southpaws, dropping his season totals to .186/.226/.220 with one extra base hit.  Depending on how much stock you place on Bill James's research, this could a bad omen for the Twins.  According to James's 1986 Baseball Abstract, the correlation in terms of total team runs and the position in the batting order is the strongest in the second slot, the spot that Casilla called home in 410 plate appearances last year.  Prior to his season-stalling injury in July, Casilla was batting .313/.351/.424 from May 13th until July 28th as the Twins played .567 ball.  Upon his return to the lineup in late August, Casilla hit just .225/.302/.289 and the Twins held a .416 winning percentage.      

 

The Twins have been targeting May 1st as the return date for catcher Joe Mauer but Twinsbaseball.com's Kelly Thesier suggests that Minnesotans may see him in the Metrodome even before that.  Mauer told manager Ron Gardenhire that he is feeling strong in his rehab starts in Fort Myers and would like to rejoin the team sooner than expected.  The Twins are naturally cautious with their star catcher and would like to have him catch nine innings before making any decisions to activate him.  In his three games with the Ft Myers Miracle, Mauer is 4-for-11 (.364) with a double and a pair of RBIs. 

 

Jim Mandelaro in Rochester informs us that the Twins' minor league free agent Justin Huber homered in his first at-bat with the Red Wings on Saturday.  The Australian native had troubles gaining access to the country and started the season on the temporarily inactive list, trying to hash out visa problems in Toronto which is why his first at-bat in Rochester came on Saturday.  According to Mandelaro, this feat was last performed by former prospect Terry Tiffee in 2004.  The one-time elite prospect for the Kansas City Royals has mashed left-handed pitching, hitting .332/.402/.519 against them in his minor league career, and could assume the Randy Ruiz role of 2009 for the Twins if the need for a right-handed power bat becomes dire.  

 

Josh Johnson has added to his list of prospects and is now profiling his top ten.  

Dugout Splinters has things we can look for in the upcoming series against Tampa Bay. 

Justin Murphy over at BaseballDigest.com submits a This Week in Twins History. 

Long way to go.

Through 16 games in 2006: 7-9, 4 games out.  Finished 96-66 (1st in AL Central).

 

Through 16 games in 2007: 10-6, 1 game up.  Finished 79-83 (3rd in AL Central).

 

Through 16 games in 2008: 7-9, 2.5 games out.  Finished 88-75 (2nd in AL Central).

 

Through 16 games in 2009: 7-9, 1.5 games out.  To be continued.

 

In honor of the Twins series in Cleveland, a special video.

 

 

Award Context: Tony Oliva's 1964 Rookie of the Year

When the Twins signed Tony Oliva out of Cuba in 1961, they assumed they had acquired a 23-year-old.  Diligent research by the Twins public relations director Herb Heft revealed that the Twins had actually received a 21-year-old who was not named Tony but rather Pedro.  Pedro Oliva, with the assistance of legendary Cuban scout Joe Cambria, switched records with his older brother Tony and decided to retain his namesake and birthday when he finally landed stateside.  Thus, Pedro Oliva became Tony Oliva who would make a rapid progression through the Twins minor league system.

 

While assigned to Class D Wytheville of the Appalachian League in 1961, Oliva led all of organized baseball with a .410 batting average and was promoted to the Class A Charlotte in the Sally League by the end of the year. In 1962, the Twins called up Oliva in September and gave him 12 plate appearances where he went 4-for-9.  The next season, Oliva was tearing up Class AAA Dallas, hitting .304 with 23 home runs, and was once again recalled to Minnesota where he went 3-for-7 in his seven September games. 

 

By 1964 Oliva had earned himself a spot within the Twins starting outfield with his big stick.  It was this ability at the plate that earned him a solid reputation league-wide.  With the conclusion of the month of May, Oliva had hit .402 (49-for-122) with nine home runs and 18 extra base hits.  Early reports began dubbing Oliva the left-handed Hank Aaron.  Arthur Daley of the New York Times titled him "the new wonderboy".  After hitting a grand slam and a solo home run against the Angels, then Los Angeles manager, Bill Rigney, quipped "I haven't noticed too much he can't hit.  It looks like we'll have to throw him spitters and hope we drown him." 

At the All Star Break of his rookie season, Oliva was hitting .335 (113-for-337) with 18 home runs while driving in 51 and scoring 63 more on his own, lifting the Twins to a 43-37 record, fourth in the American League.  The Twins' outfielder would be the only rookie among those selected for the 35th All Star Game at Shea Stadium and would finish the night 0-for-4, including a strikeout by the Dodgers' Don Drysdale, in front of the 50,000 fans on hand at the midsummer classic. 

 

The Twins would begin to fall out of contention post-All Star break, ending the year on a 35-47 stretch, and the focus quickly shifted for Oliva whose batting average was encroaching on the all-time rookie record of .343 set by Dale Alexander in 1929.  Oliva, too, would slow as his average would peak at .340 on July 30th after a 2-for-5 night against the Yankees.  For the rest of the season, Oliva would hit .291 (68-for-234) but would still wind up with a .323 batting average that would best Baltimore's Brooks Robinson (.317) for the AL Batting Title.  Oliva's name would also end up near the top of just about every major category in AL that rookie season:

 

• 1st in hits (217), runs scored (109), doubles (43) and total bases (374).
• 1st in extra base hits with (84), which far exceeded runner-up Rocky Calovito's (67) total. 
• Tied for 3rd in triples (9) behind teammates Zolio Versalles (10) and Rich Rollins (10).
• 3rd in Slugging Percentage (.557) behind Boog Powell (.606) and Mickey Mantle (.591). 
• 4th in OPS (.916) behind Mantle (1.015), Powell (1.005) and teammates Bob Allison (.957) and Harmon Killebrew (.924).
• 6th in home runs (32).

 

For this performance, Oliva received almost unanimous support for the Rookie of the Year, obtaining 19 out of 20 votes.  The lone vote went to Baltimore's Wally Bunker who had compiled a strong season in his own right, throwing 214 innings for the Orioles and while going 19-5 with a 2.69 ERA, but the fact that Oliva wound up being the first rookie to win the batting title help propelled him to the top of the voting list. 

 

Oliva's promising career would become mired with various injuries including what was ultimately a career-altering knee injury suffered on a diving attempt at Athletics' Joe Rudi's line drive. 

Also found at BaseballDigest.com

Can we play the blame game?

The timing of Juan Morillo's acquisition could not have come at a more appropriate time.  With the news that set-up man Jesse Crain will enter the 15-day DL with an inflammed shoulder and if you thought the Twins were in need of bolstering prior to Crain's injury, post-Crain's DL stint the bullpen is waffer thin.  This past offseason the Twins had a couple opportunities to nab hard-throwing set-up men, notably David Aardsma and Juan Cruz.  Instead of trading a non-prospect like the Mariners did for Aardsma's employment or surrendering a draft pick and two year contract for Cruz, the Twins patiently waiting until the first couple weeks of the season passed then they claimed Morillo from the Colorado Rockies*.  Little did he know how immediate his impact on this bullpen needed to be. 

 

(*The Rockies have reached new levels of talent mismanagement within their organization.  Prior to losing Morillo to the Twins, the Rockies lost AAA first baseman Joe Koshansky to the Texas Rangers.  Last season Koshansky batted .300/.380/.600 with 31 home runs and 121 RBIs at Colorado Springs but had been block steadily by the aging Todd Helton.  Like Morillo, the Rockies tried to sneak him through the waivers but were thwarted by Texas.  Neither player may actually amount to a hill of beans but the sheer fact that there was a commodity within their system that could have been swapped for lower level prospects to replenish the developmental leagues but instead they are lost for nothing.)

 

The severity of Crain's injury is still an unknown.  Recovering from surgically repaired shoulders has a far greater likelihood of failure than those who are subjected to Tommy John surgery.  Frequently, those pitchers who do come back often re-tear their labrums since even when healthy a pitcher's shoulder experiences various levels of pain and swelling.  Admittedly, Crain's could be a simple case of inflammation where rest and anti-flammatory drugs will help get him back into the bullpen (but at which point Ron Gardenhire should let up on the throttle). 

 

Is this a clear case of poor monitoring of someone who was obviously a strong candidate to re-injure his shoulder?  In a four day span, Gardenhire used Crain three times, allowing him to pitch 3 1/3 innings as he threw 69 pitches (this does not include warmup pitches which probably put the workload into the 100+ pitch count).  On April 16th, Crain's average fastball velocity was at 94.2 miles per hour and he needed 11 pitches to get through three batters.  One day later, Crain needed 30 pitches to get just one out.  His fastball's velocity dropped to 92.7 on average and was on the disabled list by Monday afternoon.  Clearly this is a taxing workload for the healthiest of arms let alone someone who had gone through labrum repair. 

 

It is hard to outright blame the coaching staff as they were playing the cards they were dealt and it was apparent to even your most casual fan that Crain was the best option between the starting pitcher and Joe Nathan.  Why didn't the front office address this need in the offseason?  The company line has been that the Twins need a stable of outfielders in the event of injury.  How about the bullpen?  The team loses Pat Neshek and Boof Bonser and the front office does not flinch.  The opportunity to stabilize a crumbling relief staff was missed in the winter. 

 

Still, Morillo's addition and Jose Mijares's recall from Rochester in lieu of Crain's injury presents a chance for the Twins to recover from what could have been disastrous.  Keep in mind that there are plenty of other arms that could get cycled into the 'pen at AAA Rochester including Anthony Swarzak, who has a two-pitch repertoire that would play well in short inning work, and below that at AA New Britain is Anthony Slama who has nine strikeouts in five innings of work in 2009.  Yes, Swarzak and Slama are a good internal pair to have in the event of another arm emergency (along with a handful of others) but the Twins needed to solidify things in February rather than making on-the-fly adjustments in April.