Can we play the blame game?

The timing of Juan Morillo's acquisition could not have come at a more appropriate time.  With the news that set-up man Jesse Crain will enter the 15-day DL with an inflammed shoulder and if you thought the Twins were in need of bolstering prior to Crain's injury, post-Crain's DL stint the bullpen is waffer thin.  This past offseason the Twins had a couple opportunities to nab hard-throwing set-up men, notably David Aardsma and Juan Cruz.  Instead of trading a non-prospect like the Mariners did for Aardsma's employment or surrendering a draft pick and two year contract for Cruz, the Twins patiently waiting until the first couple weeks of the season passed then they claimed Morillo from the Colorado Rockies*.  Little did he know how immediate his impact on this bullpen needed to be. 

 

(*The Rockies have reached new levels of talent mismanagement within their organization.  Prior to losing Morillo to the Twins, the Rockies lost AAA first baseman Joe Koshansky to the Texas Rangers.  Last season Koshansky batted .300/.380/.600 with 31 home runs and 121 RBIs at Colorado Springs but had been block steadily by the aging Todd Helton.  Like Morillo, the Rockies tried to sneak him through the waivers but were thwarted by Texas.  Neither player may actually amount to a hill of beans but the sheer fact that there was a commodity within their system that could have been swapped for lower level prospects to replenish the developmental leagues but instead they are lost for nothing.)

 

The severity of Crain's injury is still an unknown.  Recovering from surgically repaired shoulders has a far greater likelihood of failure than those who are subjected to Tommy John surgery.  Frequently, those pitchers who do come back often re-tear their labrums since even when healthy a pitcher's shoulder experiences various levels of pain and swelling.  Admittedly, Crain's could be a simple case of inflammation where rest and anti-flammatory drugs will help get him back into the bullpen (but at which point Ron Gardenhire should let up on the throttle). 

 

Is this a clear case of poor monitoring of someone who was obviously a strong candidate to re-injure his shoulder?  In a four day span, Gardenhire used Crain three times, allowing him to pitch 3 1/3 innings as he threw 69 pitches (this does not include warmup pitches which probably put the workload into the 100+ pitch count).  On April 16th, Crain's average fastball velocity was at 94.2 miles per hour and he needed 11 pitches to get through three batters.  One day later, Crain needed 30 pitches to get just one out.  His fastball's velocity dropped to 92.7 on average and was on the disabled list by Monday afternoon.  Clearly this is a taxing workload for the healthiest of arms let alone someone who had gone through labrum repair. 

 

It is hard to outright blame the coaching staff as they were playing the cards they were dealt and it was apparent to even your most casual fan that Crain was the best option between the starting pitcher and Joe Nathan.  Why didn't the front office address this need in the offseason?  The company line has been that the Twins need a stable of outfielders in the event of injury.  How about the bullpen?  The team loses Pat Neshek and Boof Bonser and the front office does not flinch.  The opportunity to stabilize a crumbling relief staff was missed in the winter. 

 

Still, Morillo's addition and Jose Mijares's recall from Rochester in lieu of Crain's injury presents a chance for the Twins to recover from what could have been disastrous.  Keep in mind that there are plenty of other arms that could get cycled into the 'pen at AAA Rochester including Anthony Swarzak, who has a two-pitch repertoire that would play well in short inning work, and below that at AA New Britain is Anthony Slama who has nine strikeouts in five innings of work in 2009.  Yes, Swarzak and Slama are a good internal pair to have in the event of another arm emergency (along with a handful of others) but the Twins needed to solidify things in February rather than making on-the-fly adjustments in April.            

OTB Twins Notes (04.20.09)

Patrick Ruesse comments on the bulldog nature of Twins left-hander Glen Perkins.  After cruising through the first six innings, the Angels’ Bobby Abreu sent a line drive screaming back up the middle that deflected off of Perkins’ lower quad area.   The ball scooted towards Brendan Harris at third who made a nice recovery play to retire Abreu at first.  Perkins would shake off the blow and then finish off the seventh and eighth innings, needing only 84-pitches to earn his first victory of the year.  His strikeout per nine innings is still treading in the unimpressive 4.5 area but he has now entered the 8th inning in all of his three starts without getting shelled.  On 11 occasions in 2008, Perkins worked past the seventh inning and faced a total of 58 batters where he would serve up five home runs as opponents .346 off of him.  So far this year, he has faced a pool of 22 batters and have kept them to a .181 batting average. 

The latest news from the Joe Mauer camp indicates that the defending batting champ will be beginning rehabilitation games on Monday – starting with a handful of simulated games, then a stint with the GCL Twins and six with the Class A Fort Myers Miracle.  The Twins could use his defensive and offensive prowess behind the plate.  In 117 innings, Mike Redmond and Jose Morales have combined to allow 15 stolen bases - a 12% caught stealing percentage (2-of-17) - while hitting .238/.319/.286 in 47 plate appearances.   If all goes well in the upcoming minor league games for Mauer, he could be back in a Twins uniform on May 1^st to face the Kansas City Royals. 

After going 8-for-10 with seven RBIs in the first two games against the Angels, Jason Kubel finally failed to reach base safely on Sunday but stung the ball around the field in some very hard hit outs.   Tom Powers points out that Kubel’s bat is one that has survived the trip north from Fort Myers, keeping his production consistent with the numbers he had in Florida this spring.  Kubel’s contributions to the lineup are often overlooked and underestimated; recently both Dave Cameron and Rob Neyer took the Twins to task for signing Kubel to a two-year contract (with a third year option).  What they failed to realize is how much of a barometer his offensive production is for the team.  When the Twins won 18 out of 21 games from June 13 to July 6 last season, Kubel batted .322/.391/.610.  His 2009 season is starting to resemble that stretch as up to yesterday’s game, when Kubel was batting .366/.395/.634.  With his line drive tendencies and occasional clout, there is no reason not to think that slugging above .500 is out of reach for him in 2009.   

Phil Miller reports that Torii Hunter has told Twins minor league director Jim Rantz that he would like to finish his career with the Minnesota Twins.  Hunter still has four years and $71.5 million remaining on his current Angels contract so the soonest he would be available to return to the Twin Cities would be in 2013 at which point Hunter will be 37 years old.  Hunter’s center field skills are already eroding, winning the last two Gold Gloves on reputation and a handful of highlight reel catches, meaning that if Torii does return it won’t be to play center for the Twins.  He does possess the ability to detonate left-handed pitching (.285/.342/.492 vs LHP) so if he plays out his current contract and retains this trait while decreasing in earning power to Griffey-levels (1-year, $2 million), he would be welcomed back in a smaller capacity role.

Miller also fills us in on relief prospect Jose Mijares, who was shipped to AAA Rochester to work on throwing strikes after a brutal spring training.  Ron Gardenhire told reporters that Mijares is throwing 93-mph now and that the Rochester club is working on bringing Mijares back up to better physical condition after the left-hander showed up to Fort Myers out of shape.   In 6 1/3 innings of work so far this year, Mijares has struck out four and walked just one while allowing two hits and no runs.  With current Twins left-handed reliever Craig Breslow having difficulties finding the strike zone (throwing 29% of his pitches for strikes) Mijares’s progress will undoubtedly be monitored closely by those in Minnesota. 

After 20 teams passed on the Rockies’ Juan Morillo, the Twins claimed him on Friday and designed Philip Humber for assignment.  The hard-throwing right-handed was given the opportunity to showcase his velocity in front of Ron Gardenhire on Saturday, which pitch f/x shows that he was hitting 98-mph at times.  Morillo’s lack of control was an issue for the Rockies as they put him on various minor league assignments to work on his command after they converted him to a reliever.  Colorado had tried to include Morillo in a trade along with Willy Taveras to the Nationals’ for Tim Redding but Washington ultimately balked at the deal, suggesting there were medical concerns with Morillo.  Morillo has the raw capabilities and at 25-years-old, he’s still a young pup.  Control is a problem, the lack of movement on his 100-mph fastball is a problem and his lack of a secondary pitch is also a problem.   Still, for the waiver fee, the Twins grabbed the type of pitcher that they were looking for in Juan Cruz during the offseason.  A combination of Mijares and Morillo in the backend of the bullpen would greatly increase the Twins late innings success. 

Looking at pitching prospect Anthony Swarzak’s 0-2 record at Rochester might raise an eyebrow, but that is the only thing that doesn’t look good about his numbers so far.  Jim Mandelaro reminds us that the Red Wings have not been able to score a run in either of Swarzak’s two starts meanwhile Swarzak has allowed just one earned run while striking out nine and walking one in his 11 inning in April.   A starter by nature, the Twins might consider bringing Swarzak up for test ride if any members of the pitching staff suffer injuries or wind up ineffective.

John Sickels looks at what he considers his all-time top five left-handed pitchers with the Minnesota Twins.   The first four might be somewhat obvious but the last, Tom Hall, is interesting.  Hall stood about six-foot even and weighed 144 pounds earning himself the nickname “Blade”.   Drafted in 1966, Hall reached the big club by 1968 and became a swingman for the team, going 25-21 in four years with the Twins and posting a respectable 3.00 ERA while striking out 431 in 455 1/3 innings pitched in that duration.  Hall’s greatest contribute to the Twins came in September of 1970.   At the end of August, the Twins were clinging to a four game lead over California and a six game lead over Oakland.  Manager Bill Rigney decided to move Hall into the rotation in the last month and Hall responded by going 5-0 in seven starts as opponents hit just .160 and struck out 61 times in 53 2/3 innings of work, averaging a game score of 71 in each of his starts.  Hall would later be traded to Cincinnati for closer Wayne Granger (who would be traded the following year for Larry Hisle). 

Josh Johnson examines the final game of the Angels series that resulted in the Twins' first sweep of the year.

Justin Murphy provides a solid write-up of This Week in Twins History at Baseball Digest. 

A Look At Baker's Night

Scott Baker's first start of 2009 concluded after four woeful innings in which the ordained number one starter for the Twins gave up five hits (four of which were home runs), two walks and six earned runs.  Anyone who followed Baker through the spring should not be surprised of these results: In six spring games, Baker saw nine balls clear the fence in 23 2/3 innings of work as opponents slugged a Bondsian .713 in 109 plate appearances.  Placed on the 15-day DL to recoup what was assumed to be shoulder tightness, Baker continued on Wednesday exactly where he left off in Florida. 

 

The early prognosis of Baker's troubles suggested that he was up in the zone.  The Star Tribune's La Velle E Neal echoed the postgame sentiment by writing that "[Baker] elevated too many pitches".  True, the majority of the home runs hit were above the waist (Scott Rolen's may have been closer to thigh high) but Baker is a fly-ball pitcher by trade and lives in the northern hemisphere of the strikezone.  The fact that his pitches were elevated alone is not necessarily cause for concern.  

Let's take a closer look at Baker's pitches in two distinctly different games.  The top graph, provided by brooksbaseball.net, is his start last night.  The bottom is from a start on July 20th last year against the Texas Rangers in which Baker went eight innings and allowed just two hits (one of which was a home run) and struck out eight. 

 

This first series of graphs shows the view of what it would look like if you were standing between the mound and home plate watching Baker pitch from the side - only to see the ball leave trippy, multi-colored trails. 

 

 

 

Last night, Baker threw all of his pitches between two feet and three-and-a-half feet in height.  Last year, you see that his pitch height ranged from one-and-a-half to three feet, so there is a slight elevation on the whole.  The blue line, or his slider, has a definite plane change from the two outings.  In his successful one, his slider ended up at the one-and-a-half foot level.  Last night it was landing in the zone around three feet high. 

 

 

 

This graph shows the view of what Baker's pitches look like from a bird's eye view.  The bottom axis is the horizontal movement and 0.0 cuts the plate in half where as the numbers bleed into the negatives, the pitch is running in on a right-handed batter.  Conversely if the pitch moves towards the higher numerics, this represents movement at a left-handed batter.  As you can see, the four pitches showed little deviation.  The changeup - the red line - essentially follows a straight path that bisects the plate.  The slider - the blue line - is the only one of the group that follows a different path. 

 

Back on July 20th, 2008, you see large separation between the flight path of his pitches.  The fastball - the green line - was thrown for a strike consistently - but now the changeup has movement into a right-handed batters and the slider has a much more pronounced break towards left-handed batters.  This variation of location, much like that of speed, keeps opposing batters from focusing in on one area for all four pitches.  Comparatively, Baker's pitches had little-to-no differentiation on Wednesday night. 

 

The key for Scott Baker is his slider.  In 2008, Baker had a WHIFF of .278 because of the movement and location and as such Baker had his best season of his career.  Without those two variables, Baker's slider turns into an easily accessible pitch to hit.  Look for the Twins to work with Baker in regaining that sharp break towards left-handed batters and keeping that pitch at the knees. 

Go-Go Going Down Looking

Through twenty-seven plate appearance in 2009, Carlos Gomez has written another chapter on offensive futility.  With a minimum of 20 plate appearances to qualify, the Twins’ center fielder has the seventh highest strikeout percentage (34.6%) among MLB outfielders and a punitive .115 batting average.  This was not the anticipated results for the center fielder who had worked diligently (maybe) with hitting coach Joe Vavra all spring to avoid the increasingly high total of Ks.  To his credit, Gomez is chasing fewer pitches out of the strike zone – he has chased 27% of pitches which is just slightly higher than the league average of 25%.  Even still, with two-strikes on him, Gomez has already mentally selected his seat on the bench.  In thirteen of those twenty-seven plate appearances, Gomez has had the count run to two-strikes and just once was he able to gain first base (through a walk).  On nine other occasions he struck out.  If Gomez is not chasing pitches as he has been in the past, why does he still maintain an inflated strikeout rate?   

 

There are several factors that have led to this, the first of which is pitch selection.   In efforts to revamp his patience, Gomez has taken a greater portion of pitches then he had last year.  In 2008, Gomez took 45% pitches and this year he has taken 54%.  Superficially this is a good sign but the problem is that Gomez is not taking the right pitches.  A year ago, of the 946 pitches that Gomez took, 302 were strikes (32%).  Fast forward to this year and so far Gomez has taken 50 pitches and of which 20 were in the strike zone (43%).  As such, his aggression when faced with two-strikes has subsided.  In six of his nine strikeouts in 2009, Gomez has gone down looking.   This is a huge difference from 2008 when just 30 of his 142 strikeouts were of the watching variety.    

 

	2008	2009
Pitches Taken	45%	54%
Pitches Taken for a Strike	32%	43%

 

When Gomez does swing, he makes contact only 64.5% of the time which is well-below the league average of 80% contact.  In addition to that, his ability to make contact on anything thrown outside of the zone is minimal.  As noted above, Gomez is chasing fewer pitches out of the zone (27%) however when he does swing, his contact likelihood is minuscule.  Just 30% of his swings on pitches outside the zone result in the ball being put into play.  This total is the smallest contact among outfielders other than the Indians’ Grady Sizemore, who has made contact on just 27.3% during swings on balls out of the zone.  It might not be a prime pitch selection to swing at but the bottom-line is that Gomez is simply failing to make contact, resulting in the inevitable strikeout.   

 

 

	2008	2009
Contact%	77.8%	64.5%
OOZ Contact%	59.3%	30.0%

 

Strikeouts aside, Gomez is enjoying far less success because of the ingrained doctrine to “take more pitches”.  In 2008, Gomez swung at the first pitch in 44% of his plate appearances.  In those 105 PA’s, Gomez produced a .426/.433/.554 batting line that resulted in 11 of his 48 extra base hits.  These were far better consequences than the league average split which was .336/.342/.554 on the first pitch.   If Gomez sunk to two strikes, his ability to hit vanished.  Under all conditions in which Gomez had two strikes on him, he wilted to a .132/.195/.375 hitter.  Even the proverbial league average hitter managed to hit a meager .196/.267/.292 with those circumstances.  In 2009, Gomez has swung at 30% of the first offerings in a plate appearance yet opposing pitchers have peppered the strike zone – throwing Gomez a strike 70% of the time.  Because of his More often than not, Gomez has allowed the count to wander into two strike territory that has given unfavorable results (0-for-12). 

 

Despite belief to the contrary, Gomez should be looking to pounce on a pitch early in the count, particularly the first one.   His two extra base hits have come when he was aggressive:  He hit his double on the first pitch from Carlos Silva and his triple on the third pitch from Erik Bedard.  Avoiding getting Gomez to two strikes will pay dividends for the Twins. 

The Notebook Dump (04.14.09)

Game: Twinks 6, Blue Jays 8

Box Score

Win Probability

Recap

Record: 3-5

 

 

 

The Quote: ""Some disappointing pitches.  Luis coming in, a first-pitch slider down the middle [to Rolen] -- that's not a good pitch. We can't continue to do that, and this ballclub knows it." - Ron Gardenhire
 

The Inning: When Ron Gardenhire walked out to the mound with Toronto's Vernon Wells on second and third baseman Scott Rolen strolling to the plate with two outs in the top of the seventh inning, the Twins manager had little options left in his bullpen. 

 

Starter Kevin Slowey burned through 88-pitches in 5 1/3 innings of work, being cuffed around for thirteen hits and two home runs.  Attentive to the fact that it was going to be an early exit once again for the strike-thrower, Gardenhire briefly had left-handed reliever Brian Duensing warming up in the bullpen during the fifth inning.  Slowey, for his part, was able to retire Wells and the hot-hitting Adam Lind (12-for-30 entering the game in 2009) to strand runners on first and second, maintaining the one-run lead.  Adding two more runs on, the Twins would enter the top of the sixth with a three-run lead.  The relentless Blue Jays would stab back with a two-run home run by Lyle Overbay and it was suddenly a close game once again.  One out later and a walk to rookie Travis Snider followed by a steal of second. 

 

Last year, the Twins starting rotation allowed just 20 stolen bases total in the 163 games.  So far in 2009, the starters have been subjected to six swindles of second (eight total against the entire staff).  In all of last year, Slowey witnessed four out of seven attempts successfully converted.  In just two starts, Slowey has now had three attempts and three runners gaining second.  Yes, the company line is that a stolen base is the responsibility of both the catcher and the pitcher but under these circumstances, teams are runner strictly on Jose Morales and his sub-par arm. 

 

With a runner now in scoring position and Slowey throwing batting practice, Gardenhire decided the situation was ripe for a move.   At the onset of the sixth, the camera displayed both Craig Breslow and Matt Guerrier warming up in the bullpen.  Because the Jays had a sequence of righties following the left-handed batting Snider who was currently on second base, Gardenhire went with Guerrier.  Early returns in 2009 have seen a much different Guerrier then the one from the second-half of last year (or the second-half of the season prior to that) In a small sample of 3 2/3 innings coming into Monday's game, Guerrier had struck out three and given up just one hit.  Seventy-three percent of his pitches were strikes and eighty-percent of balls in play were on the ground.  Guerrier would fall behind and walk Scutero but would get Aaron HIll to bounce into an inning-ending double play. 

After the Twins failed to add to their 6-5 lead, Guerrier returned to the mound in the seventh to face Alex Rios, who he struck out.  Wells would lace a line drive into center for his first hit of the ball game.  With the white-hot Lind approaching the plate with the tying run on first, Gardenhire summoned Breslow.  Breslow pitched last on Sunday in the chill of Chicago to unfavorable results.  Dewayne Wise sacrificed Alexei Ramirez to second then Breslow hit Chris Getz and was removed from the game.  Two batters, one out and four pitches.  While battling Lind, Wells would snipe second base from the Twins' battery (this Morales throw would bounce half-way between the mound and second base).  Breslow, with the tying run now ninety feet closer, would strikeout Lind. 

 

This is where Gardenhire's tough decision would appear.  Striding to the plate was right-handed Scott Rolen.  The man assuming the stopper role in the bullpen, Jesse Crain, would be unavailable after throwing 15 pitches on Sunday and Saturday.  For his career, Rolen should little platoon tendencies.  According to his splits, lefties pitched him more gingerly, walking him more frequently than right-handed pitchers.  In recent year, however, Rolen's ability to hit left-handed pitching with power had diminished.  In 2007, he slugged .311 against 191 southpaws.  In 2008, he slugged .390 from a pool of 119 left-handers.   Last season, the left-handed Breslow would face 101 right-handed batters and hold them to a .221 average with one extra base hit in 19.  Still, Breslow had never faced the veteran Rolen.  In fact, the Twins had only a select few that had faced off against Rolen.  Rolen was 2-for-3 against Crain with two doubles, 0-for-3 against Joe Nathan and 0-for-2 against Guerrier.  Crain and Guerrier would be unavailable and Nathan is rarely woken up until the ninth inning.  Therefore the only option left to use would be Luis Ayala.

 

Ayala is having a fairly expected 2009.  He throws to contact and, as a result, contact is usually made.  Up until Monday night, most of it has been without its damages.  In his four innings so far, Ayala has allowed six hits while giving up two earned runs.  Most recently working in Chicago on Saturday and retired Carlos Quentin then struck out Wise and Paul Konerko.  It seems that it is performances like the one in Chicago that Gardenhire relishes and recalls when determining which reliever to use.  Yes, Rolen is 1-for-3 lifetime against Alaya with a game-winning home run in his career but Ayala shut down the Sox under meaningless conditions.  Ayala it would be.  

 

Ayala would unleash an 85-mph slider left up in the zone and out over the plate that Rolen would immediately lash back up the middle to score Wells from second.  With most of his bullpen used up or in remission, Gardenhire would allow Ayala to continue into the eighth inning, now working with a tie game.  Catcher Rod Barajas would hit a 2-2 fastball for a double and Snider would get an 2-0 changeup that was thigh-high middle-in and uncork on it for his second shot over the baggy on the night and vault the Blue Jays to a 8-6 victory.