Odds. Ends. (03.18)

Chicago White Sox

 

• Bartolo Colon's first spring outing for the Sox didn't go according to plan.  The Sun-Time's Joe Cowley reports that in his inning-and-two-thirds of work against the Royals, Colon labored heavily to throw strikes, hitting the zone in just 22 of his 40 pitches. ''The most important thing is he was out there healthy, healthier,'' manager Ozzie Guillen said. ''I could say everything about Contreras because I've known Jose for four or five years. Colon, I haven't seen him pitch in a little while. Obviously, his ball was up a little bit. ... His velocity was good enough for me. He did what I expect." The 36-year-old's results are somewhat textbook considering that he recent underwent elbow clean-up surgery.  As a rule, shoulder injuries wind up with decreased velocity while the elbow injury sufferers usually have more problems with control. 

 

Minnesota Twins

 

• La Velle notes the Twins are determined to use Denard Span defensively - with the expense of playing musical lineups with Carlos Gomez, Michael Cuddyer and Delmon Young.  The Twins are favoring using him in left field which would be the most efficient implementation of his skills.  The Metrodome has an expansive left-center field area and a Span-Gomez combination would cover a portion of that.  The downside is that Span has never been asked to field left before.  "It's just something I have to learn how to do," Span said. "It's not that I can't do it. I've just never done it in my short career. That's the biggest thing, learning how to play different positions day in and day out.  I play left field today and the ball is slicing this way, and the next day the ball is slicing the opposite way."  In his brief tenure as the Twins right fielder in 2008 (686 innings), Span was ranked the sixth overall best right field defender according to John Dewan's Fielding Bible.   
• Over at Fangraphs, Dave Cameron ranks the Twins as the 18th overall organization...one slot behind the White Sox.  Discuss. 
• The Brewers have designated former Twins relief prospect Eduardo Morlan to assignment after selecting him from Tampa in the Rule 5 draft according to Tom Haudricourt.  The Rays can either allow the Brewers to keep him, or buy him back for $25,000.  Brewers GM Doug Melvin echoed the same sentiment regarding Morlan that one Twins official told me: "We like his arm but that's not our call right now," said Melvin.

 

 Cleveland Indians

 

• Cleveland Plain Dealer's Paul Hoynes celebrated the switch-hitting skills of Indians second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera.  Hoynes notes that Cabrera was taught to be a switch-hitter when he was three-years-old in Venezuela so, therefore, he is a "natural".  Admittedly, Cabrera's minor league splits are that of a disciplined hitter from either side of the plate (.752 OPS RH/.780 OPS LH), but his major league experience has fallen short of his development numbers: in as a left-handed batter he has a .661 OPS with a .957 OPS batting right-handed.  This is not so much a degradation of Cabrera's talents as it is indictment of the media's preconceived notions about switch-hitters: sometimes it is more beneficial to bench a switch-hitter when he is facing a pitcher from his inferior plate side in favor of a platoon instead of wedging the switch-hitter in simply because he fits (I find the managers love it because it is a no-brainer).  The legendary Eddie Murray was viewed as one of the best switch-hitters of all-time but even his numbers suggest that he was better from the left-side (.857 OPS) than his right (.787). 
• I specifically noted Murray because it gives me the opportunity to forward on this 2003 Joe Christensen article written while he was with the Baltimore Sun (for whatever reason, I keep picturing Christensen with a mullet as I read this...) on the former O's and Indian slugger Eddie Murray.   Christensen - or possibly another reporter - poses the question to Orioles former scouting director Dave Ritterpusch if Murray would have made the Hall had he not been a switch-hitter.  As I highlighted above, he was a better hitter from the left-side, hitting 362 of his 504 career home runs from that batter's box, his non-natural side. 

 

Kansas City Royals

 

• The Twins might not be done with the likes of Sir Sidney Ponson -- according to Bob Dutton at the Kansas City Star, the Royals have signed Ponson to a minor league contract and an invitation to spring training (the 19 days or so left anyways).  In his WBC audition, Ponson worked 9 innings and posted a 4.00 ERA while walking 4 and striking out 4.  After headlining the Netherlands quasi-interesting upset over the Dominican Republic, Ponson will report to Arizona and face the Mariners on Wednesday. 
• In 2008, Royals catcher John Buck hit .224/.304/.365 - numbers that were fairly consistent with his career line but wiuth a dip in his power.  Buck reveals the source behind his struggles at the plate which puts a human face on why sometimes production declines, something we number-crunchers often forget or don't have access to when providing our analysis.  Buck's wife delivered twins in May - one was hanging on with medical support.  “I had my wife in the hospital,” Buck recalled. “I had one of my boys, Brody, literally on a lifeline with oxygen.  I didn’t want to bring it up. I was having a bad season, and I didn’t want to make it sound like an excuse. To me, that would have been a loser’s excuse. So I kept that private."

 

Detroit Tigers

  

• The Tigers are in such a bullpen predicament that they have invited Juan Rincon to camp and threw over $4 million to Brandon Lyon to help solidify an open sore that was once a bastion of talent in 2006 during their World Series run.  Once again, the young flamethrower that was the centerpoint of the 2006 bullpen, Joel Zumaya, is having shoulder pains that is keeping him from throwing this spring.  After manager Jim Leyland said on Sunday that Zumaya would be ready by Opening Day, Jon Paul Morosi's article in the Detroit Free Press raises plenty of doubts.  After being diagnosed by Dr. James Andrews with an inflammed rotator cuff (not a good cuff to have inflammed), Zumaya started having spasms behind his shoulder, keeping him inactive this spring.  What was once a promising career is now teetering on the brink of being extinguished.   

What Should Be Done With Mijares?

After a brief yet successful ten outings in a call up last September, a solid contingency of Twins fans were ready to anoint Jose Mijares the bullpen savior in 2009.  Since this audition however, Mijares has showed glimpses of a potential attitude problem and apathy towards his physical conditioning. 

 

In the 2008 Baseball Prospectus Annual, the commentator noted that Mijares' "attitude was a concern, as it seems that he doesn't like baseball as much as he's simply good at it."  These words were scribed months prior to Mijares' meltdown in Venezuela and it wound up being prophetic.  The Twins shuttled Mijares south to the Venezuelan Winter League in order to consume more innings considering the majority of his development in 2008 was sidetracked by a car accident a year ago while pitching in the same league.  His winter began much like his season ended: In 28 outings, Mijares worked 25 2/3 innings, striking out 32 and walking 12 while posting an ERA of 1.40.  However, the Twins reliever would find himself at odds with Tigres de Aragua manager Buddy Bailey, resulting in Mijares being a no-show to multiple games.  The feud culminated in Bailey scratching Mijares from the playoff roster in spite of Mijares' obvious success.  For their part, the Twins front office revealed little insight as to their interpretation of the events.  "I'm not sure [Mijares] handled it as well as anyone would have liked," Twins General Manager Bill Smith told reporters in January, sounding more like a parent that had been informed their child was acting out in class. 

 

The silver-lining that came from the winter ball incident was that the Twins were able to stress to Mijares that nothing is guaranteed -- his spot on the roster is going to have to be earned in the spring.  "If he comes to camp thinking he's a lock for our bullpen, he'll probably be in [Class AAA] Rochester after our first cuts," Smith said. "If he pitches the way he did in September, he has a good chance of making our club."  A introduction to Rochester would be wildly beneficial to the long-term development of Mijares' career.  Consider that including his 10 innings in September, Mijares has thrown just 19 total innings above Class AA. You can believe that teams scheduled to face the Twins in September must have been feverishly contacting scouts and coaches that had seen Mijares in AA in 2007 for some semblance of a scouting report.  Consider that he faced just 34 batters in his stint with the Twins in 2008.  Had Danny Valencia or Luke Hughes showed similar success in 34 plate appearances at the Major League level, this would be quickly dismissed as a small sample size rather than sustainable output.  Likewise, Mijares' 2008 should be viewed as just that, a small sample size success. 

 

Have you noticed that the Twins front office is more obsessive about weight loss than the trainers on NBC's Biggest Loser?  Last year it was Boof Bonser that needed lighten the load.  This year the Large Marge Award goes to Mijares.  Bonser's bio states that he is six-foot-four carrying 260 pounds, which is downright America's Next Top Model-ish compared to Mijares whose six-foot-even frame is carrying 230 pounds on his comparatively more squat body.  Following a team meeting at the conclusion of the 2008 season, manager Ron Gardenhire prodded Mijares to drop some of the extra weight before spring camp.  So far, Mijares has disappointed the coaching staff with his conditioning program.  During an outing on March 7th against the Pirates, Mijares summoned the manager and trainer to the mound after doubling over following a play that had him covering first and indicated that he had "tweaked" his ankle.  Gardenhire later dismissed this to the media, saying "I think he was out of breath.  He's a work in progress."

The weight and focus issues should not detract from Jose Mijares as a pitcher, however.  Nobody is questioning his talent - scouts like his fastball that can reach the mid-90's and his complementary slider with stomach-churning break.   Yes, the mental state of preparedness and extra poundage raises the concern over endurance and what his second-half might look like with substandard conditioning, both mentally and physically, but he has succeeded at every level in his career.  In 265-plus minor league innings, Mijares accumulated 319 strikeouts to 151 walks - a little over two strikeouts to every walk.  Throughout those levels, Mijares showed that he could retire both left-handed and right-handed opponents with ease, producing a .198 BA versus lefties and a .213 BA versus righties.  On top of that, nobody managed to find a way to hit his offerings squarely (opponents have hit line drives just 9% of the time against him). 

 

Unfortunately for Mijares, this spring has been littered with sub-par performances and ultimately failing to exert himself as the dominate reliever that the Twins need -- allowing six runs while striking out four and walking seven in 4 2/3 innings of work.  Giving Mijares the opportunity to refine his abilities to begin the 2009 season is the right decision for the organization. 

 

The Friday Flotsam

Former Twin Craig Monroe blasted three home runs, single-handedly lifting the Pirates over the Twins 6-4.  Centerfielder Carlos Gomez hit his third home run of the spring, raising his spring slugging to .818, as first base prospect Brock Peterson went 2-for-3 with a double.  Gomez is showing much improvement this spring, his three home runs and five extra base hits lead the team, and there is hope for his plate discipline as well.  Peterson, meanwhile, spent the majority of 2008 in the Twins' AA affiliate with a wOBA of .346 (a decline from his 2007 campaign in AA of .386) and will likely start 2009 in AAA. 

Two of Monroe's three home runs came off of Twins starter and newly extended Scott Baker.  Kelly Thesier reports that Baker blamed the lack of control and bite on his breaking balls.  In 10 innings this spring Baker has surrendered six home runs.  Baker has been a fly ball-oriented pitcher that has been blessed with a lower than average Home Run-to-Fly Ball percentage in 2008.  As such, Baker might see a few more of those flyballs sneak over the fence in 2009 as his HR/FB% normalizes.  

 

Twins set-up man Jesse Crain has developed a "slurve" (slider-curve combination) and is ready to unleash it on unsuspecting opponents says Joe Christensen.  Last season, Crain was recovering from a torn labrum and rotator cuff (the same injury Boof Bonser has this season) that ended his 2007 prematurely.  His velocity rebounded back to his pre-surgery levels, leading to a career-high 7.18 K/9, however his control was off, resulting in a career-high 3.33 BB/9.  Still, not shabby for a guy returning for major shoulder repair.  Crain is targeted as the replacement for Pat Neshek's innings and a guy that continues his strikeout trend while issuing fewer walks would be worth his weight in gold. 

 

Speaking of relievers recovering from torn labrum surgery, it appears that former Nationals closer Chad Cordero is no longer an option.  Geoff Baker reports that the Seattle Mariners have enlisted his services through a minor league contract and an invitation to spring training.  Cordero is a minimal financial risk for the Mariners but ran the gamut of shoulder tendinitis, torn lat muscle and then ultimately his labrum in 2008.  A rather soft-tossing reliever to begin with, the chances that Cordero will be an impact pitcher in the Mariners bullpen with his injury history is miniscule. 

 

Charley Walters says that Twins GM Bill Smith rebuffed representatives of Barry Bonds who has been looking for employment.  Yeah, it's getting that bad for Bonds. 

 

The Rochester Red Wings are soon-to-be TV stars and Phil Miller has some early advice for those that plan to tune in: keep your eyes on team trainer Tony Leo.  The reasoning is that Leo is the only one strapped up with a cell phone in the dugout getting the early call if a player from the Twins succumbs to an injury. 

Twinkie Town's Adam Peterson put his computer to work and churned out a great breakdown on team baserunning.  According to Peterson's calculations, Minnesota was the most aggressive team on the basepaths and the second-best in "Non-SB baserunning" behind the World Champion Phillies.  By comparison, Bill James' findings state that the 2008 Twins were 4th overall at non-SB baserunning under their accounting systems (ranking the Phillies 8th overall). 

 

KFAN's Phil Mackey runs down the 15 Worst-Projected Hitters for 2009 -- on that list are Nick Punto, Carlso Gomez and Alexi Casilla.

 

This morning at 11:30 AM I will be guest of Mark Healey on Baseball Digest LIVE.  You can listen live by clicking here or catch a recording at your own leisure.  Be sure you go to Baseball Digest's Twins page for Josh Johnson's memorial of Kirby Puckett. 

 

Odds. Ends. (03.10)

Chicago White Sox

 

•  The Sox remain optimistic about Bartolo Colon's progress.  "Bartolo has tremendous pitchability (editor's note: Pitchability?  Is that like Budweiser's Drinkibility?),'' White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper said. ''He's got really good movement, and he can change speeds. He threw fastballs and changeups only, and we spun about three breaking balls. Everything went good for him.  The feeling I'm getting, and he's saying it a little bit: 'I've got more. I've got more.' But we don't need more right now. More ain't better, and where he's at is fine. We're going to continue to progress from here.''  Colon has not thrown more than 100 innings since 2005 plus he has a ton of mileage on his arm from his younger days with the Indians when he frequently threw 130-pitch games in his early 20s, making the idea that he will be able to provide an entire season as a number four or five starter is a bit of a stretch for the 36-year-old who is coming off of minor elbow surgery. 
• The Chicago Sun-Times' Joe Cowley handicaps the positional battles for second, centerfield and third. 
• According to BillJamesOnline.net, the White Sox had a net gain of -20 bases while on the basepaths (by comparison, the Twins were +67 bases on the year).  Apparently, the White Sox are once again looking to rely on the long ball considering the way they run the bases.  So far this spring, AJ Pierzynski was doubled off of first on a fly ball and Josh Fields was thrown out advancing to third twice. 

 

Minnesota Twins

 

• As Joe Mauer's prolonged absence from spring training continues, more and more fans on message boards have been looking outside the organization for potential catching help.  For some unknown reason, Ivan Rodriguez's name keeps being mentioned.  At this juncture in his career, I-Rod is an obvious backup catcher.  The 37-year-old catcher is showing signs of aging: 

 

• Since 2005, Rodriguez has had a sharply declining WPA: -0.99 in 2005, -1.06 in 2006, -1.93 in 2007 and -2.24 last season.
• Likewise over those seasons, Rodriguez saw his power drain: .169 Isolated Power Average in 2005, .137 ISOP in 2006, .139 ISOP in 2007 and .118 last year.
• His second-half in 2008 showed major decay hitting .252/.296/.362 in 134 plate appearances after hitting .288/.330/.410 in 294 plate appearances to open the season.  The same problem occured in 2007 when he hit .271/.282/.382 after hitting .288/.302/.447 in the first half.
• Defensively, his ability to throw runners out has been declining as well going from 51.4% CS% in 2005, 50.9% in 2006, 30.8% in 2007 and 32.4% in 2008.  (Well, from superhuman to human anyways but a sign of deterioration nonetheless).

 

• There is another camp that is hellbent on catching prospect Wilson Ramos as the replacement for an injured Joe Mauer.  "I really like this Ramos kid," manager Ron Gardenhire said. "I think this kid's a pretty good player. He's a big, strong kid who can hit a ball a long ways."  True, the 21-year-old Ramos shows great power potential, slugging .434 in the Florida State League last season when the average slugging was .376.  The problem, however, is that Ramos has not played above high-A which puts him at a great disadvantage when facing Major League pitching.  Even though it is a crude calculation, Jeff Sackmann's Minor League Equivalency calculator suggests that Ramos's .288/.346/.434 in the FSL would have translated into a batting line of .226/.271/.326 at the MLB-level.   

  

Cleveland Indians

 

• The Cleveland Plain Dealer's Terry Pluto is reporting that former Cardinals super prospect Anthony Reyes "has been the most impressive pitcher in camp. Not in terms of stuff, but just savvy and looking ready to go. Not surprised -- those six starts, that 1.83 ERA and 12 walks in 34 1/3 innings with the Tribe late last season said a lot. Now, keep that elbow healthy." Reyes, who was traded late last year to the Indians and went 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in six starts, has had a long history of elbow/arm problems. According to Driveline Mechanics, Reyes is going to have to work on his delivery if he has any intention of staying healthy for any extended periods of time.  
• I mentioned before that the White Sox had a pitiful -20 net gain in their team baserunning while the Twins had a +67 net gain running the bases.  The Indians as a team led both of them with a net gain of +74 last year. 

 

Kansas City Royals

   

• Royal utility man Esteban German was released after he cleared waivers on Monday.  German was the causuality of the Juan Cruz signing and was designated for assignment shortly there after.  German had a solid 2006 campaign in which he hit .326/.442/.459 in 331 plate appearances but he regressed significantly over the next few seasons finishing 2008 hitting .245/.303/.338 in 242 plate appearances.  Because of his infield versatility, he will likely become filler for a AAA roster. 

 

Detroit Tigers

 

• The Tigers are pleased with the result of top pitching prospect Rick Porcello that they are considering him for a spot in the rotation in spite of just one year and 125 professional innings.  Porcello's chance improve with every ailment suffered by starter Jeremy Bonderman.  Bonderman has yet to throw in a game this spring but might get his opportunity this Saturday.

The Fabulous Baker Boy

For his first several years of MLB service time, Scott Baker enjoyed building his frequent flyer portfolio by bouncing between Minneapolis and Rochester from 2005 until this past season where, without an identifiable frontline starter (unless you consider Livan Hernandez a frontline starter and I certainly don't), Baker stepped up as the leader of the rotation going 11-4 in his 28 starts and increased his K/9 from 6.39 in 2007 to 7.32 in 2008.  That's not all:

 

• His FIP was the sixth-best among qualified starters in the AL Central (but would quickly ascend the list due to the departure of Javier Vazquez). 

• Had it not been for the phenomenal season by the Indians' Cliff Lee, Baker would have captured the title of best WHIP in the division at 1.18 - instead he has to settle for second-best in the Central and fifth overall in the American League.  
• His 3.35 K/BB finished second only to Lee once again in the division and sixth behind the good company of names like Halladay, Beckett, Mussina, Santana and Shields.  This was an improvement of two places from 2007 when he finished eighth in that category. 

 

2008:	Age	Innings	FIP	K/BB	LD/GB/FB%	HR/FB%	WHIP
S. Baker	27	172.3	3.79	3.35	21/33/46	8.5%	1.18

  

Given this progress it seemed like a natural decision that the Twins signing him to a four-year, $15.25 million dollar contract with an option for a fifth season worth $9.25, effectively buying out his three arbitration years for $14.5 million.       

 

Contract:	2009	2010	2011	2012	2013	Total
S. Baker	$750,000	$3 M	$5 M	$6.5 M	$9.25 (Option)	= $15.25 M ($24.5 w/ Option Year)

Red = Arbitration Years Bought

Green = Free Agent Years

 

Given the lengthy commitment to purchasing Baker's arbitration years, a quick due diligence should be paid to figure if Baker can sustain his 2008 output over the course of the contract. 

 

STUFF:

 

Though it may not seem obvious considering his velocity is a rather middle-of-the-road 91.7-mph but Scott Baker possessed the best fastball in the American League Central in 2008.  According to my WHIFF breakdown, among starting pitchers that made a minimum of 20 starts, Scott Baker had the highest WHIFF (.176).  What's more is that Baker's fastball WHIFF was in a league of its own in 2008 among the qualified candidates -- as 17.6% of all swings on the pitch reached the catcher's mitt.   On average the AL Central featured swing-and-misses on just 8.5% (.085 WHIFF) of fastballs.  For the record, Greinke's 14.6% (.146 WHIFF) was second only to Baker (followed then by Fausto Carmona, Brian Bannister and Luke Hochevar). 

 

Baker ranked second in the American League in out-of-zone swings (31.5%) thanks to his slider (.278 WHIFF) set up with his impeccable control of his fastball.  Only Ervin Santana and his sick slider (.387 WHIFF) featured an out-of-zone swing percentages higher than Baker (31.7%).In 2007, Baker was the most chased pitcher in the American League among those throwing at least 140 innings (33.7%). 

 

 

Stuff:	FB WHIFF/ %	Curve WHIFF / %	Slider WHIFF/ %	Change WHIFF/%	K%
2007	.127 / 59.9%	.200 / 5.8%	.259 / 29.5%	.200 / 4.5%	16.8%
2008	.176 / 61.8%	.180 / 7.2%	.278 / 19.7%	.159 / 4.5%	20.0%

 

ARM INJURY RISK (the Joe Mays clause):

 

When an organization makes a significant investment, they should consider the potential for injury.  In 2008, in 28 starts, Scott Baker accumulated just 54 pitcher abuse points (PAP).  This amount was well-below the AL Central average of 108 PAP this past year.  Justin Verlander led the division with 383 followed by Gil Meche (281), Cliff Lee (266) and Javier Vazquez (236).  In 28 starts, Baker wound up throwing over 110 pitches in just two games.  For comparison's sake, Verlander threw over 110 pitches in 16 of his 33 starts and threw over 120 pitches twice.  What does a light pitch count do for Scott Baker?  Unlike the aforementioned quadruplets, Baker's arm has little to no wear-and-tear on it from 2008 making the likelihood that his 2009 will be injury-free (at least in his arm) that much greater. 

 

Injury Risk:	2008 PAP
S. Baker	54

 

THE LUCK FACTOR:

There are several indicators that may suggest a higher ERA in 2009:

 

• Baker's batting average on balls in play was .290 last year, slightly below the league-average of .300.  This was a serious decrease from a year ago when he had a BABIP of .327 - well above the league average.  This differential helped shave his ERA from 4.26 to 3.45.  Even though it is a small adjustment from .290 to league-average, Baker saw fewer flyballs find the ground (.118 vs .167 FB BABIP) thanks to a much improved outfield defense in 2008.  Depending on what defensive alignment the Twins choose to favor will have a big influence on his BABIP numbers.  More hits mean more baserunners which spell more runs.
• Last season Baker led the entire AL with a left-on-base percentage of 78.7%, well above the expected league average of 72% suggesting that Baker could regress to the mean this coming season as a result allowing a few more runs thus inflating his ERA.  However, some studies have shown that pitchers that have K/9 over 7.0 (as Baker did in 2008) have a 52% chance on a LOB% of over 73%.  Judging from Baker's stuff listed above, he has the repertoire to sustain a K/9 above 7.0. 
• As an extreme flyball-oriented pitcher, Baker stands a very good chance of allowing home runs.  For whatever reason maybe in 2008, his 8.5% HR/FB% was below the baseball average of 10.0%.  Don't be surprised if Baker is the victim of a few more gopher balls in 2009.

 

Luck:	BABIP	LOB%	HR/FB%
2007	.327	72.0%	7.6%
2008	.290	78.7%	8.5%

 

CONCLUSION:

 

Overall, given his pitching stuff, low injury risk and little worry that he will deviate too far from his 2008 numbers in the coming years, Baker has a better than average chance of maintaining consistency throughout the duration of his contract extension.  His contract is diligent in securing his prime years between the ages of  27-through-30 and allows for the option of his 31-year-old season if he is still effective at the backend of his contract extension.  Baker is essentially a finished product and should be plateauing between now and at least his 30-year-old season in 2012.  The Twins have retained one of the American League's best pitchers with a solid contract.