Sunday, March 15, 2009

What Should Be Done With Mijares?

After a brief yet successful ten outings in a call up last September, a solid contingency of Twins fans were ready to anoint Jose Mijares the bullpen savior in 2009.  Since this audition however, Mijares has showed glimpses of a potential attitude problem and apathy towards his physical conditioning. 
 
In the 2008 Baseball Prospectus Annual, the commentator noted that Mijares' "attitude was a concern, as it seems that he doesn't like baseball as much as he's simply good at it."  These words were scribed months prior to Mijares' meltdown in Venezuela and it wound up being prophetic.  The Twins shuttled Mijares south to the Venezuelan Winter League in order to consume more innings considering the majority of his development in 2008 was sidetracked by a car accident a year ago while pitching in the same league.  His winter began much like his season ended: In 28 outings, Mijares worked 25 2/3 innings, striking out 32 and walking 12 while posting an ERA of 1.40.  However, the Twins reliever would find himself at odds with Tigres de Aragua manager Buddy Bailey, resulting in Mijares being a no-show to multiple games.  The feud culminated in Bailey scratching Mijares from the playoff roster in spite of Mijares' obvious success.  For their part, the Twins front office revealed little insight as to their interpretation of the events.  "I'm not sure [Mijares] handled it as well as anyone would have liked," Twins General Manager Bill Smith told reporters in January, sounding more like a parent that had been informed their child was acting out in class. 
 
The silver-lining that came from the winter ball incident was that the Twins were able to stress to Mijares that nothing is guaranteed -- his spot on the roster is going to have to be earned in the spring.  "If he comes to camp thinking he's a lock for our bullpen, he'll probably be in [Class AAA] Rochester after our first cuts," Smith said. "If he pitches the way he did in September, he has a good chance of making our club."  A introduction to Rochester would be wildly beneficial to the long-term development of Mijares' career.  Consider that including his 10 innings in September, Mijares has thrown just 19 total innings above Class AA. You can believe that teams scheduled to face the Twins in September must have been feverishly contacting scouts and coaches that had seen Mijares in AA in 2007 for some semblance of a scouting report.  Consider that he faced just 34 batters in his stint with the Twins in 2008.  Had Danny Valencia or Luke Hughes showed similar success in 34 plate appearances at the Major League level, this would be quickly dismissed as a small sample size rather than sustainable output.  Likewise, Mijares' 2008 should be viewed as just that, a small sample size success. 
 
Have you noticed that the Twins front office is more obsessive about weight loss than the trainers on NBC's Biggest Loser?  Last year it was Boof Bonser that needed lighten the load.  This year the Large Marge Award goes to Mijares.  Bonser's bio states that he is six-foot-four carrying 260 pounds, which is downright America's Next Top Model-ish compared to Mijares whose six-foot-even frame is carrying 230 pounds on his comparatively more squat body.  Following a team meeting at the conclusion of the 2008 season, manager Ron Gardenhire prodded Mijares to drop some of the extra weight before spring camp.  So far, Mijares has disappointed the coaching staff with his conditioning program.  During an outing on March 7th against the Pirates, Mijares summoned the manager and trainer to the mound after doubling over following a play that had him covering first and indicated that he had "tweaked" his ankle.  Gardenhire later dismissed this to the media, saying "I think he was out of breath.  He's a work in progress."

The weight and focus issues should not detract from Jose Mijares as a pitcher, however.  Nobody is questioning his talent - scouts like his fastball that can reach the mid-90's and his complementary slider with stomach-churning break.   Yes, the mental state of preparedness and extra poundage raises the concern over endurance and what his second-half might look like with substandard conditioning, both mentally and physically, but he has succeeded at every level in his career.  In 265-plus minor league innings, Mijares accumulated 319 strikeouts to 151 walks - a little over two strikeouts to every walk.  Throughout those levels, Mijares showed that he could retire both left-handed and right-handed opponents with ease, producing a .198 BA versus lefties and a .213 BA versus righties.  On top of that, nobody managed to find a way to hit his offerings squarely (opponents have hit line drives just 9% of the time against him). 
 
Unfortunately for Mijares, this spring has been littered with sub-par performances and ultimately failing to exert himself as the dominate reliever that the Twins need -- allowing six runs while striking out four and walking seven in 4 2/3 innings of work.  Giving Mijares the opportunity to refine his abilities to begin the 2009 season is the right decision for the organization. 
 


Friday, March 13, 2009

The Friday Flotsam

Former Twin Craig Monroe blasted three home runs, single-handedly lifting the Pirates over the Twins 6-4.  Centerfielder Carlos Gomez hit his third home run of the spring, raising his spring slugging to .818, as first base prospect Brock Peterson went 2-for-3 with a double.  Gomez is showing much improvement this spring, his three home runs and five extra base hits lead the team, and there is hope for his plate discipline as well.  Peterson, meanwhile, spent the majority of 2008 in the Twins' AA affiliate with a wOBA of .346 (a decline from his 2007 campaign in AA of .386) and will likely start 2009 in AAA. 

Two of Monroe's three home runs came off of Twins starter and newly extended Scott Baker.  Kelly Thesier reports that Baker blamed the lack of control and bite on his breaking balls.  In 10 innings this spring Baker has surrendered six home runs.  Baker has been a fly ball-oriented pitcher that has been blessed with a lower than average Home Run-to-Fly Ball percentage in 2008.  As such, Baker might see a few more of those flyballs sneak over the fence in 2009 as his HR/FB% normalizes.  
 
Twins set-up man Jesse Crain has developed a "slurve" (slider-curve combination) and is ready to unleash it on unsuspecting opponents says Joe Christensen.  Last season, Crain was recovering from a torn labrum and rotator cuff (the same injury Boof Bonser has this season) that ended his 2007 prematurely.  His velocity rebounded back to his pre-surgery levels, leading to a career-high 7.18 K/9, however his control was off, resulting in a career-high 3.33 BB/9.  Still, not shabby for a guy returning for major shoulder repair.  Crain is targeted as the replacement for Pat Neshek's innings and a guy that continues his strikeout trend while issuing fewer walks would be worth his weight in gold. 
 
Speaking of relievers recovering from torn labrum surgery, it appears that former Nationals closer Chad Cordero is no longer an option.  Geoff Baker reports that the Seattle Mariners have enlisted his services through a minor league contract and an invitation to spring training.  Cordero is a minimal financial risk for the Mariners but ran the gamut of shoulder tendinitis, torn lat muscle and then ultimately his labrum in 2008.  A rather soft-tossing reliever to begin with, the chances that Cordero will be an impact pitcher in the Mariners bullpen with his injury history is miniscule. 
 
Charley Walters says that Twins GM Bill Smith rebuffed representatives of Barry Bonds who has been looking for employment.  Yeah, it's getting that bad for Bonds. 
 
The Rochester Red Wings are soon-to-be TV stars and Phil Miller has some early advice for those that plan to tune in: keep your eyes on team trainer Tony Leo.  The reasoning is that Leo is the only one strapped up with a cell phone in the dugout getting the early call if a player from the Twins succumbs to an injury. 

Twinkie Town's Adam Peterson put his computer to work and churned out a great breakdown on team baserunning.  According to Peterson's calculations, Minnesota was the most aggressive team on the basepaths and the second-best in "Non-SB baserunning" behind the World Champion Phillies.  By comparison, Bill James' findings state that the 2008 Twins were 4th overall at non-SB baserunning under their accounting systems (ranking the Phillies 8th overall). 
 
KFAN's Phil Mackey runs down the 15 Worst-Projected Hitters for 2009 -- on that list are Nick Punto, Carlso Gomez and Alexi Casilla.
 
This morning at 11:30 AM I will be guest of Mark Healey on Baseball Digest LIVE.  You can listen live by clicking here or catch a recording at your own leisure.  Be sure you go to Baseball Digest's Twins page for Josh Johnson's memorial of Kirby Puckett

 

Tuesday, March 10, 2009

Odds. Ends. (03.10)

Chicago White Sox
 
  •  The Sox remain optimistic about Bartolo Colon's progress.  "Bartolo has tremendous pitchability (editor's note: Pitchability?  Is that like Budweiser's Drinkibility?),'' White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper said. ''He's got really good movement, and he can change speeds. He threw fastballs and changeups only, and we spun about three breaking balls. Everything went good for him.  The feeling I'm getting, and he's saying it a little bit: 'I've got more. I've got more.' But we don't need more right now. More ain't better, and where he's at is fine. We're going to continue to progress from here.''  Colon has not thrown more than 100 innings since 2005 plus he has a ton of mileage on his arm from his younger days with the Indians when he frequently threw 130-pitch games in his early 20s, making the idea that he will be able to provide an entire season as a number four or five starter is a bit of a stretch for the 36-year-old who is coming off of minor elbow surgery. 
  • The Chicago Sun-Times' Joe Cowley handicaps the positional battles for second, centerfield and third. 
  • According to BillJamesOnline.net, the White Sox had a net gain of -20 bases while on the basepaths (by comparison, the Twins were +67 bases on the year).  Apparently, the White Sox are once again looking to rely on the long ball considering the way they run the bases.  So far this spring, AJ Pierzynski was doubled off of first on a fly ball and Josh Fields was thrown out advancing to third twice. 
 
Minnesota Twins
 
  • As Joe Mauer's prolonged absence from spring training continues, more and more fans on message boards have been looking outside the organization for potential catching help.  For some unknown reason, Ivan Rodriguez's name keeps being mentioned.  At this juncture in his career, I-Rod is an obvious backup catcher.  The 37-year-old catcher is showing signs of aging: 
 
    • Since 2005, Rodriguez has had a sharply declining WPA: -0.99 in 2005, -1.06 in 2006, -1.93 in 2007 and -2.24 last season.
    • Likewise over those seasons, Rodriguez saw his power drain: .169 Isolated Power Average in 2005, .137 ISOP in 2006, .139 ISOP in 2007 and .118 last year.
    • His second-half in 2008 showed major decay hitting .252/.296/.362 in 134 plate appearances after hitting .288/.330/.410 in 294 plate appearances to open the season.  The same problem occured in 2007 when he hit .271/.282/.382 after hitting .288/.302/.447 in the first half.
    • Defensively, his ability to throw runners out has been declining as well going from 51.4% CS% in 2005, 50.9% in 2006, 30.8% in 2007 and 32.4% in 2008.  (Well, from superhuman to human anyways but a sign of deterioration nonetheless).
 
  • There is another camp that is hellbent on catching prospect Wilson Ramos as the replacement for an injured Joe Mauer.  "I really like this Ramos kid," manager Ron Gardenhire said. "I think this kid's a pretty good player. He's a big, strong kid who can hit a ball a long ways."  True, the 21-year-old Ramos shows great power potential, slugging .434 in the Florida State League last season when the average slugging was .376.  The problem, however, is that Ramos has not played above high-A which puts him at a great disadvantage when facing Major League pitching.  Even though it is a crude calculation, Jeff Sackmann's Minor League Equivalency calculator suggests that Ramos's .288/.346/.434 in the FSL would have translated into a batting line of .226/.271/.326 at the MLB-level.   
  
Cleveland Indians
 
  • The Cleveland Plain Dealer's Terry Pluto is reporting that former Cardinals super prospect Anthony Reyes "has been the most impressive pitcher in camp. Not in terms of stuff, but just savvy and looking ready to go. Not surprised -- those six starts, that 1.83 ERA and 12 walks in 34 1/3 innings with the Tribe late last season said a lot. Now, keep that elbow healthy." Reyes, who was traded late last year to the Indians and went 2-1 with a 1.83 ERA in six starts, has had a long history of elbow/arm problems. According to Driveline Mechanics, Reyes is going to have to work on his delivery if he has any intention of staying healthy for any extended periods of time.  
  • I mentioned before that the White Sox had a pitiful -20 net gain in their team baserunning while the Twins had a +67 net gain running the bases.  The Indians as a team led both of them with a net gain of +74 last year. 
 
Kansas City Royals
   
  • Royal utility man Esteban German was released after he cleared waivers on Monday.  German was the causuality of the Juan Cruz signing and was designated for assignment shortly there after.  German had a solid 2006 campaign in which he hit .326/.442/.459 in 331 plate appearances but he regressed significantly over the next few seasons finishing 2008 hitting .245/.303/.338 in 242 plate appearances.  Because of his infield versatility, he will likely become filler for a AAA roster. 
 
Detroit Tigers
 

Sunday, March 08, 2009

The Fabulous Baker Boy

For his first several years of MLB service time, Scott Baker enjoyed building his frequent flyer portfolio by bouncing between Minneapolis and Rochester from 2005 until this past season where, without an identifiable frontline starter (unless you consider Livan Hernandez a frontline starter and I certainly don't), Baker stepped up as the leader of the rotation going 11-4 in his 28 starts and increased his K/9 from 6.39 in 2007 to 7.32 in 2008.  That's not all:
 
  • His FIP was the sixth-best among qualified starters in the AL Central (but would quickly ascend the list due to the departure of Javier Vazquez). 
  • Had it not been for the phenomenal season by the Indians' Cliff Lee, Baker would have captured the title of best WHIP in the division at 1.18 - instead he has to settle for second-best in the Central and fifth overall in the American League.  
  • His 3.35 K/BB finished second only to Lee once again in the division and sixth behind the good company of names like Halladay, Beckett, Mussina, Santana and Shields.  This was an improvement of two places from 2007 when he finished eighth in that category. 
 

2008: 

Age

Innings

FIP

K/BB

LD/GB/FB%

HR/FB%

WHIP

S. Baker

27

172.3

3.79

3.35

21/33/46

8.5%

1.18

  
Given this progress it seemed like a natural decision that the Twins signing him to a four-year, $15.25 million dollar contract with an option for a fifth season worth $9.25, effectively buying out his three arbitration years for $14.5 million.       
 

Contract: 

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

Total

S. Baker

$750,000

$3 M

$5 M

$6.5 M

$9.25 (Option)

= $15.25 M ($24.5 w/ Option Year)

Red = Arbitration Years Bought
Green = Free Agent Years
 
Given the lengthy commitment to purchasing Baker's arbitration years, a quick due diligence should be paid to figure if Baker can sustain his 2008 output over the course of the contract. 
 
STUFF:
 
Though it may not seem obvious considering his velocity is a rather middle-of-the-road 91.7-mph but Scott Baker possessed the best fastball in the American League Central in 2008.  According to my WHIFF breakdown, among starting pitchers that made a minimum of 20 starts, Scott Baker had the highest WHIFF (.176).  What's more is that Baker's fastball WHIFF was in a league of its own in 2008 among the qualified candidates -- as 17.6% of all swings on the pitch reached the catcher's mitt.   On average the AL Central featured swing-and-misses on just 8.5% (.085 WHIFF) of fastballs.  For the record, Greinke's 14.6% (.146 WHIFF) was second only to Baker (followed then by Fausto Carmona, Brian Bannister and Luke Hochevar). 
 
Baker ranked second in the American League in out-of-zone swings (31.5%) thanks to his slider (.278 WHIFF) set up with his impeccable control of his fastball.  Only Ervin Santana and his sick slider (.387 WHIFF) featured an out-of-zone swing percentages higher than Baker (31.7%).In 2007, Baker was the most chased pitcher in the American League among those throwing at least 140 innings (33.7%). 
 
 

Stuff: 

FB WHIFF/ %

Curve WHIFF / %

Slider WHIFF/ %

Change WHIFF/%

K%

2007

.127 / 59.9%

.200 / 5.8%

.259 / 29.5%

.200 / 4.5%

16.8%

2008

.176 / 61.8%

.180 / 7.2%

.278 / 19.7%

.159 / 4.5%

20.0%

 
ARM INJURY RISK (the Joe Mays clause):
 
When an organization makes a significant investment, they should consider the potential for injury.  In 2008, in 28 starts, Scott Baker accumulated just 54 pitcher abuse points (PAP).  This amount was well-below the AL Central average of 108 PAP this past year.  Justin Verlander led the division with 383 followed by Gil Meche (281), Cliff Lee (266) and Javier Vazquez (236).  In 28 starts, Baker wound up throwing over 110 pitches in just two games.  For comparison's sake, Verlander threw over 110 pitches in 16 of his 33 starts and threw over 120 pitches twice.  What does a light pitch count do for Scott Baker?  Unlike the aforementioned quadruplets, Baker's arm has little to no wear-and-tear on it from 2008 making the likelihood that his 2009 will be injury-free (at least in his arm) that much greater. 
 

Injury Risk:

2008 PAP

S. Baker

54

 
THE LUCK FACTOR:
 
  • Baker's batting average on balls in play was .290 last year, slightly below the league-average of .300.  This was a serious decrease from a year ago when he had a BABIP of .327 - well above the league average.  This differential helped shave his ERA from 4.26 to 3.45.  Even though it is a small adjustment from .290 to league-average, Baker saw fewer flyballs find the ground (.118 vs .167 FB BABIP) thanks to a much improved outfield defense in 2008.  Depending on what defensive alignment the Twins choose to favor will have a big influence on his BABIP numbers.  More hits mean more baserunners which spell more runs.
  • Last season Baker led the entire AL with a left-on-base percentage of 78.7%, well above the expected league average of 72% suggesting that Baker could regress to the mean this coming season as a result allowing a few more runs thus inflating his ERA.  However, some studies have shown that pitchers that have K/9 over 7.0 (as Baker did in 2008) have a 52% chance on a LOB% of over 73%.  Judging from Baker's stuff listed above, he has the repertoire to sustain a K/9 above 7.0. 
  • As an extreme flyball-oriented pitcher, Baker stands a very good chance of allowing home runs.  For whatever reason maybe in 2008, his 8.5% HR/FB% was below the baseball average of 10.0%.  Don't be surprised if Baker is the victim of a few more gopher balls in 2009.
 

Luck: 

BABIP

LOB%

HR/FB%

2007

.327

72.0%

7.6%

2008

.290

78.7%

8.5%

 
CONCLUSION:
 
Overall, given his pitching stuff, low injury risk and little worry that he will deviate too far from his 2008 numbers in the coming years, Baker has a better than average chance of maintaining consistency throughout the duration of his contract extension.  His contract is diligent in securing his prime years between the ages of  27-through-30 and allows for the option of his 31-year-old season if he is still effective at the backend of his contract extension.  Baker is essentially a finished product and should be plateauing between now and at least his 30-year-old season in 2012.  The Twins have retained one of the American League's best pitchers with a solid contract.

Wednesday, March 04, 2009

Projecting Francisco Liriano in 2009

In 2006, the left-handed pitcher dubbed "The Franchise" featured a wipe-out slider that he threw 40% of the time to harmonize with his 95-mph fastball.  It was this lethal combination that incited batters to miss nearly 65% of the time on pitches thrown outside the zone and led to a 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings.  And even if batters did manage to put the ball in play, Liriano induced a groundball on 55% of all contact.  The career detour known as Tommy John surgery would erase his entire 2007 campaign and forced Liriano to reinvent himself as a pitcher.
 
Things were slightly different for Liriano when he finally returned to the big league hill in April of 2008.  He no longer possessed the 95-mph fastball, instead it was replaced by a 90-mph version and his sharp slider that bit hard at right-handed batters ankles was not traveling 87-mph towards the plate as it had been in 2006.  It spun up to the plate at a lackluster 79.8-mph.  Unlike a torn rotator cuff injury, the recipient of Tommy John often re-obtain their velocity - what changes is their ability to control and throw the various breaking pitches.  The Twins jammed a ball deep into Liriano's left hand and told him to learn to throw a changeup more frequently.  Coaxing the pitch out of him came gradually.


Pitch Type

FB Vel / %

SLD Vel / %

CHG Vel / %

2006 Season

94.7 / 43.6% 

 87.7 / 37.6%

83.5 / 18.7% 

April 2008 

90.4 / 55.8%

79.8 / 27.2%

80.5 / 17.0%

August 2008

90.7 / 54.8%

83.9 / 26.1%

82.0 / 19.1%

September 2008 

91.2 / 51.1%

84.9 / 26.4%

83.0 / 22.4%

 
As a result of his increased velocity and his liberal use of the changeup coupled with his ability to locate pitches within the strike zone, Liriano saw opponents taking more swings at pitches outside of the zone.  Although opposing batters were making significant contact in April and August, Liriano made more bats miss in the final month of the season, an indication that he was finding the right mix of speed.  With this inflation in pitches chased and overall zone presence, Lirano's strikeout totals spiked back to near-2006 totals in the final month of the season.  
 

Plate Discipline

 Out-Of-Zone Swing%

Contact %

Zone %

K/9

2006 Season

27.5%

65.4%

54.8%

10.71

April 2008

15.5%

78.5%

45.0%

6.10

August 2008

30.7%

77.7%

47.2%

7.12

September 2008

 29.2%

71.4%

52.0%

9.62

 
Liriano's batted ball stats also reflect how a different approach can wildly alter the end results.  In 2006, Liriano was an extreme groundball pitcher, a direct correlation of the downward action on his slider.  The 2008 version of Liriano used change of speed to fool his opponents, often receiving swings from batters well ahead of the offspeed pitch.  Instead of pounding a plummeting slider into the ground, batters were out on their front-foot elevating a changeup. 
 

 Batted Balls 

LD%

GB%

FB%

2006 Season

21.3%

55.3%

23.4%

April 2008

22.9%

42.9%

34.3%

August 2008

11.2%

48.6%

40.2%

September 2008

25.0%

32.1%

42.9%

 
What does this mean for Francisco Liriano in 2009?  Liriano won't be the pitcher he was in 2006 but he won't be the pitcher he was in 2008 either - the most likely scenario is a hybrid variation.  His numbers in his last month of 2008 probably provide the best window in which to project Liriano.  What will change going forward is his batted ball totals.  Because he is throwing the slider less frequently and throwing two pitches that have higher contact rates more often, Liriano will see a jump in total number of balls in play.  However, by regaining his velocity and still having two solid pitches in his slider (.350 WHIFF) and changeup (.313 WHIFF), Liriano will still be a strikeout-oriented pitcher with a K/9 encroaching on the 10.0 mark.