Notebook Dump (Exhibition Game #5)

Game: Twinks 1, Red Sux 2

Box Score

Recap

Spring Training Record: 4-1

 

 

 

The Quote: "Right now, I think I'm the best centerfielder." - Carlos Gomez.

 

The Notes:

 

• The Red Sox's Kevin Youkilis's solo home run off of Craig Breslow was the difference between the Twins remaining perfect in the 2009 Grapefruit League season.  If the picture above feels strange that's because it is: In 38.2 innings of work in 2008 in a Twins uniform, Breslow did not allow a home run.  It also sounded like this particular one by Youkilis was assisted by the wind according to John Gordon and Dan Gladden on KSTP.  Still, with his 40% flyball percentage, it is only a matter of time before a few stray balls find their way over the fence.  Better to have happened in spring training. 

 

• Joe Nathan announced that he is withdrawing from the World Baseball Classic due to an irritation in his shoulder, located in his AC joint - where the collarbone and clavicle meet on top of the shoulder.  The news that he is not participating in the WBC is irrelevant.  What is of concern is whether Nathan will be ready by the season opener as the Twins would be forced into the less-than-ideal possibility of having Luis Ayala close out games.  Since his one inning outing against Boston last week, Nathan has not yet thrown and still experiences discomfort in the shoulder area.  Nathan, of course, downplays the situation. "It's kind of been not bad, but the irritation just got a little (greater) as we've gone on here," Nathan said. "It's something I'm not worried about, but I want to take care of it now, so it doesn't get to a point where I do worry about it." 

 

• Last Wednesday, Dr. Coco Eaton performed shoulder anthroscopy on the Twins' Boof Bonser, locating several tears in the pitcher's labrum and rotator cuff.  According to the Twins official press release, the partial tears were repaired right away and the tedious process of healing and rehabilitating begin.  At the conclusion of the 2008 season, Bonser says he experienced shoulder discomfort and had an MRI taken.  In the event of a SLAP tear - the superior aspect of the labrum is torn from anterior to posterior - an MRI usually reveals the damage and, as Kelly Thesier reported on Twinsbaseball.com, Bonser's procedure showed no damage.  In the Twins' opinion, it was a case of tendinitis and kept Bonser from throwing for several months.  Even if there was non-significant damage to the labrum but some tear revealed in the MRI, the best advice would have been prescribing anti-flammatory medication and withholding Bonser from any throwing activities according to Will Carroll's book "Saving the Pitcher: A Revolutionary Analysis of Pitching Injuries and How to Prevent Them".  Carroll stresses that it is imperative that the pitcher refrains from throwing as to not exacerbate even the slightest tear if following the rest-and-rehabilitate regiment.  Unfortunately for Bonser, he began to throw again in early January then again when pitchers and catchers reported to Fort Myers in February, following a cortisone shot to alleviate the pain.  There may have been a tear existing but was never shown on the MRI that was further damaged upon his return to the mound in February resulting in the partially torn labrum (which the anthroscopy found).  Though the surgical procedure of repairing the torn labrum/rotator cuff are becoming more common, reports Carroll, most often pitchers that return from the surgery lose significant velocity and wind up being consistent injury-risks of re-aggravating the labrum. 

 

• Seth Stohs of SethSpeaks.net has assumed the responsibilities of Twins Content Editor at the newly re-lauched BaseballDigest.com, yet another source for Twins news, analysis and information.  Along with Stohs, Nick Nelson (N&N), Josh Johnson (Josh's Thoughts), John Meyer (Twins MVB) and myself will assist him in providing commentary throughout the 2009 season.  I have added the first post discussing the Twins starting rotation for 2009. 

 

 

The Royals Got Better; The Twins Stay The Same

Outside of Hammond Stadium, the biggest news regarding the Twins was the Royals' signing of power-arm reliever Juan Cruz.  This news is significant for reasons twofold: 1) It signifies the disinterest in securing a replacement arm for Boof Bonser of elite caliber in the bullpen (and thereby revealing the front office's confidence is the quality of arms existing) and 2) it makes an AL Central competitor that much better.

 

There is much to like about Cruz: his 12.37 strikeouts per 9 innings was the second-highest in baseball (behind only Tampa's Grant Balfour) and his 66.0% contact rate was the second-lowest in baseball (behind only Phildelphia's Brad Lidge).  He did not even have to bend pitches around the strike zone, even when throwing within the zone, he still led the league with the lowest contact rate (73%).  It would be there and hitters would miss.  Wielding his 94-mph fastball and his 80-mph slider, Cruz just made bats miss, plain and simple.  Like the deserts miss the rain.  But it isn't as if Cruz doesn't come without his warts.  Cruz hits the strike zone as often as tails appears on a coin-flip (just about half) which has caused a large number of free passes to be handed out (5.40 per 9 innings in 2008 to be precise).  And adding baserunners in close-and-late situations is as close to throwing fuel on the fire as one can get. 

 

It took a two-year commitment of $2.25 M in 2009 and $3.25 M in 2010 ($5.5 million total) and the Royals hold a third-year option for $4 M in 2011 with a $500,000 buyout - if the team should so choose to cut ties- to win Cruz.  Even with all of the ballyhoo surrendering a first-round pick on the Type A free agent Cruz, the Royals only have to forfeit their second round (55th overall) draft choice. The cost necessary to gain Cruz was extremely reasonable and within the Twins' fiscally conservative budget. 

 

The Royals have confounded baseball analysts all offseason, making those of us that review these sorts of things in-depth wonder "Are they or aren't they competitors?"  After all, the Royals have made curious maneuvers in the past few months: they traded solid bullpen arm in Leo Nunez to the Florida Marlins for power-only first baseman Mike Jacobs when they seemed to have viable in-house candidates in Billy Butler, Kila Ka'aihue and Ryan Shealy; they announced their intentions to reposition outfielder Mark Teahen to second base, a move I likened to doing the same with Michael Cuddyer; they committed $8-million to reliever Kyle Farnsworth who doesn't seem to have the slightest as to where is ball is heading when he released it but he could be fairly certain it was usually headed in the direction of the outfield bleachers (2.24 HR/Game in 2008).  In the business world, they call these transactions "crack-crazy".

 

Of course, while most of us scoffed at these trades, repositioning and free agent signings, the Royals had quietly moved forward with a quality one-two combination of starters in Gil Meche (14-11, 210 innings, 3.61 FIP) and Zack Greinke (13-10, 202 innings, 3.56 FIP) coupled with the moderately successful Kyle Davies (who in the last month of 2008 went 4-1 with a 2.27 ERA and a 24-to-7 strikeouts-to-walks ratio).  The bullpen has Joakim Soria at the back-end, battling only Joe Nathan for closer supremacy in the Central (that torch will be passed sooner than you think).  These are four pieces of concrete foundation.   Situating hard-throwing Farnsworth and now Juan Cruz to usher the game from the starting rotation to the "Mexecutioner" to close them out has greatly increased the Royals odds of protecting any lead.  In spite of their head-scratching transactions this offseason, the Royals are certifiable contenders in 2009 and the addition of Juan Cruz has just amplified their bid for the Central.     

    

Notebook Dump (Exhibition Game 3)

Game: Twinks 5, Yanks 4

Box Score

Recap

Spring Training Record: 3-0

The Quote: "[The Yankees] went out and got a bunch more good players," Gardenhire said after the game on Friday. "It's just amazing, really. It's amazing a team can do that. Not one, two, (but) three. Just amazing. I still don't think they're done. I really don't think they're done. I think there's one more guy out there that eventually, someone's going to say (sign him). That's just my thought."

The Notes:

 

• Starter Scott Baker's numbers were less than spectacular in his first start of the spring - two innings, six hits, three earned runs, a home run and no strikeouts - yet the projected front of the rotation starter was unfazed.   "At this point in my career, I'm just trying to make pitches and hit spots, like I was trying to do today," Baker told reporters.  After turning in a 11-4 record with a 3.79 FIP in 28 starts, Baker made some great progess - raising his K/9 from 6.39 in 2006 nearly a full strikeout to 7.36 in 2008.  So it is no small wonder that he was able to whittle his ERA down from 4.26 in 2007 to 3.45 in 2008.  One of the biggest contributions towards his ERA decrease however was from the added outfield coverage provided by having Carlos Gomez and Denard Span patrolling.  In 2007, Baker had a batting average on balls in play of .167 on his flyballs the following year it was at .113.  If one of the two are removed from the equation in 2009, expect to see Baker, whose flyball percentage hoovers around 45% on his career, to have his ERA creep back up towards 4.00. 
• Delmon Young went 2-for-2 to bring his spring total to 3-for-4.  Young's three hits have all been singles so it appears to be a continuation of his 2008 season.  As I stated yesterday in regards to Brian Buscher's early spring power, it is the slugging percentage that is a telltale sign of progession.  Keep monitoring Young's slugging to see if it makes any strides forward.
• Former Twin and current Mets hopeful Bobby Kielty has decided to ditch his swing from the left-side of the plate and concentrate on his right-handed stroke.  The decision is a sound one.  At this point in his career, the 32-year-old Kielty will be a right-handed hitting specialist and a part-time role player.  In his major league career, Kielty has hit .296/.379/.503 from the right-side of the dish and hit a paltry .228/.329/.348 from the left-side.  Kielty is competing with utility player Marlon Anderson who hit .210/.255/.275 in 138 at bats in 2008 with the Mets.  If the Mets do not carry him, there will be plenty of ballclubs looking for a part-time player that can mash left-handed pitching.
• The White Sox continue to emote encouraging remarks about the newly acquired Bartolo Colon:  "[From] the reports I was getting on Colon early when we first acquired him, the first day I saw him do his throwing program, I thought he was throwing the ball OK, better than what I thought he would be," commented White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper.  I just want to make this abundantly clear: THIS MAN has the opportunity to be the White Sox fourth starter.
• After coming up in the minor leagues as a catcher/first baseman and playing most of his 330 major league games as either a first baseman or a designated hitter, the Cleveland Indians are shifting Ryan Garko to left field this spring to see if it is a fit.  With a rotation that projects to have a lot of left-handed pitching, Garko will be busy covering more real estate than he has ever done before.
• The Cleveland Plain Dealer's Terry Pluto has a great column on the flash-in-the-pan once known as Super Joe Charboneau.
• Even with the optimism from manager Jim Leyland, the Tigers' Dontrelle Willis still had a rough introduction to his spring season.  “I’m really excited about it,” Leyland said before the game. “I’m going to downplay everything all spring until we figure out who No. 5 is going to be, but I’m really looking forward to this one.”  In one inning of work, Willis gave up four runs (two earned), one four-pitch walk and no strikeouts.

 

Notebook Dump (Exhibition Game #2)

Game: Twins 10, Red 4

Box Score

Recap

Spring Training Record: 2-0

  

 

The Notes:

 

• Though it is too early to say if he plans on making this a trend, Brian Buscher has opened spring training at a torrid pace.  In the first two games, he has gone 4-for-5 with two extra base hits including a two-run home run.  Unseeded third base candidate transplanted a Francisco Cordero offering in the top of the fourth to give the Twins an early lead (ESPN says it was in the fourth inning off of Cordero, PiPress's Phil Miller says it was in the second against Micah Owings, so, uh...yeah).  Most analysts will tell you that there is very little to derive from these spring training contests.  John Dewan found that there is a better than normal correlation better a player's spring performance and a potential step-forward in the coming season.  Specifically, Dewan notes that if a player has a spring in which the ballplayer's slugging percentage is .200 points or more above his lifetime slugging percentage, that player is poised for a breakout season.  Naturally, it is still premature, but keep an eye on Buscher's slugging percentage this spring.
• Phil Humber was the first of the bullpen candidates as Boof Bonser's replacement to falter.  Humber was roughed up for four hits and four earned runs while failing to record a strikeout in his first outing of the spring. "Humber couldn't finish anything off. He couldn't get the ball down. We'll work on that," commented Ron Gardenhire. 
• This column is almost past its expiration date but I caught a quick blurb in Jim Souhan's piece on the crowded Twins outfield situation.  Souhan's line reads: "If only this were the biggest problem the 2009 Twins face -- too much talent in one outfield for a franchise that not so long ago was handing at-bats to the platoon of Dustan Mohr and Bobby Kielty, an ancient Otis Nixon, or the regrettable Alex Cole. [italics mine]"  Regrettable?  The only thing regrettable about Alex Cole is that his leg wasn't made out of titanium when he snapped his right leg in Milwaukee in 1995.  Up until that point in the season, Cole was hitting .360/.422/.493 with six extra base hits in 75 at bats.  With him and Chuck Knoblauch headlining the batting order, the Twins seemed to have constant baserunners.  A cheap free agent signing the season prior, Cole had a solid 1994, hitting .296/.375/.403 with four home runs in 398 plate appearances.  Please, Mr Souhan, use Baseball-Reference.com before you publish your column!
• ESPN is reporting that the Dodgers are close to signing former Twin Doug Mientkiewicz to a minor league contract.  The power is gone (if it ever was there) for Mientkiewicz, which playing in the spacious Dodger Stadium will work well.  Mientkiewicz can still work a count for a walk and not strikeout making him a valuable pinch hitter/part-time first baseman -- batters that can walk more than they strikeout are good commedity to have.  In 2008 while playing for a bad Pittsburgh team, Mientkiewicz was asked to vacate his comfort zone at first and man third and play the outfield yet he still managed to have a .374 on-base percentage in 334 plate appearances.  The Dodgers should use him as a pinch hitting and a late-innings defensive replacement for James Loney at first. 
• The Indians new closer Kerry Wood is spending the first few days of spring training held off the mound due to a sore back.  Wood does not seemed concern about the back at this point.  "We got a long spring," the 32-year-old Wood told reporters,"If there's a silver lining it's that we got the extra week to do what we have to do to get it ready." As I had wrote a few days ago, Wood has some of the best stuff of any closer in the game last year.  Undoubtedly, when healthy, Wood could be a steal for the Indians at $10.25 average annual value but his injury potential is the wild card that could quickly turn that contract into an albatross.
• Unlike the Cleveland Indians manager Eric Wedge who made a progressive comment about not looking at batting averages when it come to evaluating players, Ozzie Guillen has decided that someone has to say something that completely negates years of baseball research.  He told reporters in Arizona that he is looking for a leadoff hitter that can cause havoc on the bases. ''The Rickey Henderson era, the Vince Coleman era -- all those guys that can run are done, but I want to go back to that era,'' Guillen said. ''I want a guy that can get on base and make something happen. That's my style, but if you don't have a legit one, then you try finding a different way to do your lineup.''  Obviously, Guillen is associating the two with stolen bases rather than with on-base presence.  Both swindlers had 80% steal rates which was above the breakeven threshold of 70% for making the base worthwhile as leadoff hitters, however, the pair were far from the same.  Henderson was an on-base machine who had a career OBP of .401 while Coleman, on the other hand, was never as good as Rickey was at reaching base and possessed a career OBP of .321. 
• The Royals attempts to move Mark Teahen to second base began poorly, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star reports.  The Royals were given a six-run deficient in the first inning that was largely due to Teahen's fielding miscues.  According to Dutton "Teahen threw away a potential double-play grounder that could have ended a scoreless inning. He was a slow to his right on a grounder up the middle that resulted in a two-run single.  And he appeared awkward in trying to turn another potential double play that could have ended the inning at 4-0. Instead, a quickly tiring Ramirez had to keep throwing."  This is a perfect example of shoehorning a player that no longer possesses the skillset to handle - like asking Cuddyer to shift to second.  How did Teahen critique himself?  "I would have liked for it to go better," Teahen said. "But at the same time, it's not that big of a deal. You might note that (former teammate Mark Grudzielanek), the year he won the Gold Glove, made two or three errors in his first game of spring."  Yeah, and Grudzie had also been a former shortstop shifted to second base and not a third baseman-cum-outfielder before transitioning to second base.
• The Tigers have decided not to allow starter Jeremy Bonderman to pitch Saturday against the New York Mets, instead they are opting to have him throw a simulated game.  In 91 starts from 2005 to 2007, Bonderman had thrown 577 innings with 492 strikeouts while going 39-30 with a 4.83 ERA.  His season was cut short in 2008 after 12 starts in which he went 3-4 with a 4.29 in 71 innings due to a circulatory ailment that required season-ending surgery.  Bonderman's velocity had been slipping since 2005 and his strikeout rate tanked from his career-high 8.50 K/9 in 2006.  In spite of being brought up at the young age of 20 to the Majors, Bonderman did not accumulate that many Pitcher Abuse Points that would warrant indicating he was overworked. 

Notebook Dump (Exhibition Style)

Game:  Twinks 5, Red Sux 2

Box Score

Recap

Spring Training Record: 1-0

 

 

 

The Quote:  "He needed to clean up his habits. Just a young guy who didn't really have a plan yet. ... He was just stubborn. He could be lazy in his fundamentals, but it was also that line with Perk where it was just the way he did things. It's not that you're lazy. It's just that his mannerisms looked like he was." - Ron Gardenhire

 

The Quiz: 

 

You are the manager of the Twins and you need to take one of the two starting pitcher's listed below north with you as your fifth starter.  Who do you take?

 

Player A (2008) - 153 innings, 4.66 FIP, 69/32 K/9, 22.9% LD%

Player B (2008) - 151 innings, 5.14 FIP, 74/39 K/9, 22.3% LD% 

 

The Commentary:

 

At various points last year, Perkins pitched like a trust-fund baby, coasting through the season on the 6.23 run support bestowed upon him by his offense while opposing teams tagged him for 4.83 runs per game.  Did he earn his 12-4 record?  No, not really.  He was not deserving of his 4.41 ERA either when you consider his 5.14 fielding independent metric.  You supply 2008 Perkins with league average run support and his record would began to equalize like the scales of justice.  The reality is that if Perkins continues to pitch as he did in 2008, his 2009 will see an inverse of his record and an ERA north of 5.00.   

    In 2008, Perkins had a high line drive rate (22%), a large frequency of flyballs clearing the fence (11.7% HR/FB), and a small amount of strikeouts-per-nine-innings (4.4). For most pitchers, these are not good indicators.  They add up to crooked numbers.  Fortunately for Perkins, his minor league track record may suggest that these numbers are in for a change in 2009.  

    According to minorleaguesplits.com, in 311.3 career innings charted (he has thrown over 367 MiLB innings), Perkins has maintained a line drive rate of 16.0%, well below his totals in 2008.  Over the course of his developmental career, Perkins was about 40% each ground ball/fly ball making him neither type of pitcher.  Because he is such a neutral-type pitcher, it stands to reason that his batted ball statistics will eventually regress in 2009.  

    If there was one area of pitching in which Perkins was unlucky, it would have been in having to watch flyballs sneak over the fence and it certainly seemed that he had to do it a lot considering that he allowed nine home runs in a five game stretch at the end of the year (amazingly the Twins won three of those games).  Nevertheless, Perkins had 11.7% of his flyballs carry over for home runs while the rest of the league only had to watch 8.7%.  Perkins, because he is not necessarily a fly ball pitcher, should see his HR/FB percentage decrease in 2009. 

    Gifted with a low-90's fastball and one that is throw against the earth's rotation, Perkins lit up the minor leagues, striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings.  In his brief encounters with major league hitting as a reliever in 2006 and 2007, Perkins showed that he could induce empty swings.  After shoulder problems in 2007 sidetracked his progress, Perkins was giving a starting role.  On the course to throwing more innings then he has in any given season, Perkins saw his strikeout totals sink.  At the conclusion of the season, he had struck out just 4.4 batters per nine innings.  Given that he was one season removed with arm problems and has a minor league track record of striking batter's out, Perkins stands a good chance of inflating that 4.4 K/9. G

    Given these factors, 2009 looks like it has potential for Glen Perkins. 

 

The Stat:

 

With a minimum of 150 innings pitched, the top ten lowest K/9 read as such:

 

Pitcher	K/9	W-L
L. Hernandez	3.35	13-11
K. Kendrick	3.93	11-9
C. Silva	4.05	4-15
A. Cook	4.09	16-9
P. Byrd	4.10	11-12
J. Garland	4.12	14-8
Z. Duke	4.23	5-14
K. Rogers	4.25	9-13
S. Feldman	4.40	6-8
G. Perkins	4.44	12-4

 

    You want to know what all of the pitchers in this list with winning records had in common?  Run support above league-average (4.78).  Glen Perkins and Livan Hernandez had the two highest amounts of run support, above six runs per start.  The Phillies Kyle Kendrick was close to that with 5.93 runs per start.  Poor Paul Byrd somehow managed to eek out 11 victories while recieving 3.99 runs per game of support.  The point is, pitchers that have a low strikeout rate find themselves on the mercy of their offenses.  Unfortunately, the offense does not have any control over which starting pitcher they provide more runs to from year-to-year.  Needless to say, Perkins is going to have to make bats miss if he wants have a winning record in 2009.  

 

The Notes:  

 

• Wednesday's lineup may have been an early indicator of how Gardenhire might construct his lineup if he were to use Michael Cuddyer over Denard Span in right field on certain days. Simply going off of last year's numbers, Alexi Casilla (.333 OBP) is a much more suitable -- yet far from ideal -- candidate for the leadoff spot over Carlos Gomez (.296 OBP) (assuming he would be in center instead of Jason Pridie). 
• The Twins accumulated 11 hits but just two extra base hits: Justin Morneau and Brian Buscher each had a double. 
• Sigh. Nick, now you are being just effin' stubborn.  
• The Twins signed former Royals prospect Justin Huber to a minor league contract on Wednesday.  Huber, an native Australian, was originally signed by the New York Mets as an amateur free agent catcher in 2000 but was traded to the Kansas City Royals for utility man Jose Bautista (the Mets then flipped Bautista with Ty Wigginton and minor league reliever Matt Peterson for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger).  Huber had a great introduction to professional baseball, hitting .314/.381/.528 with 7 home runs while in rookie ball in 2001.  The following season he split the year better the Mets' Sally League (A) team and their Florida State League (A+) where he hit .286/.368/.453 with 14 home runs in 430 at-bats.  Despite his defensive shortcomings behind the dish, his bat carried him in his third season, hitting .274/.337/.468 and getting his first Double-A action of his career.  His 21-year-old season in 2004 would be his last as a Met but he would prove that he could hit Eastern League (AA) pitching as he would bat .271/.390/.487 with 11 home runs in 236 at-bats.  In 2005, his first in the Royals organization, Huber performed at Wichita (AA) and Omaha (AAA) hitting .326/.417/.560 with 23 home runs, that they called the 22-year-old up for a sampling late in the year.  In just 78 at-bats, Huber hit just .218/.271/.256.  In 2006 and 2007, Huber received just 20 big league at-bats and the organization that hope he would secede Mike Sweeney as a power-hitting first baseman, finally traded to San Diego for a player-to-be-named-later in March 2008.  The Padres had him with the big club in May but he lasted until just mid-June, hitting .246/.303/.393, before they sent him back down to their Triple-A affiliate.  Huber, listed at six-foot-two and two hundred pounds, will certainly fill out the Rochester roster nicely, replacing the departed Garrett Jones at first base.  He strikes out a ton but has a very good record of mashing left-handed pitching, batting .332/.402/.519 in his minor league career against southpaws.