Notebook Dump (Exhibition Game 3)

Game: Twinks 5, Yanks 4

Box Score

Recap

Spring Training Record: 3-0

The Quote: "[The Yankees] went out and got a bunch more good players," Gardenhire said after the game on Friday. "It's just amazing, really. It's amazing a team can do that. Not one, two, (but) three. Just amazing. I still don't think they're done. I really don't think they're done. I think there's one more guy out there that eventually, someone's going to say (sign him). That's just my thought."

The Notes:

 

• Starter Scott Baker's numbers were less than spectacular in his first start of the spring - two innings, six hits, three earned runs, a home run and no strikeouts - yet the projected front of the rotation starter was unfazed.   "At this point in my career, I'm just trying to make pitches and hit spots, like I was trying to do today," Baker told reporters.  After turning in a 11-4 record with a 3.79 FIP in 28 starts, Baker made some great progess - raising his K/9 from 6.39 in 2006 nearly a full strikeout to 7.36 in 2008.  So it is no small wonder that he was able to whittle his ERA down from 4.26 in 2007 to 3.45 in 2008.  One of the biggest contributions towards his ERA decrease however was from the added outfield coverage provided by having Carlos Gomez and Denard Span patrolling.  In 2007, Baker had a batting average on balls in play of .167 on his flyballs the following year it was at .113.  If one of the two are removed from the equation in 2009, expect to see Baker, whose flyball percentage hoovers around 45% on his career, to have his ERA creep back up towards 4.00. 
• Delmon Young went 2-for-2 to bring his spring total to 3-for-4.  Young's three hits have all been singles so it appears to be a continuation of his 2008 season.  As I stated yesterday in regards to Brian Buscher's early spring power, it is the slugging percentage that is a telltale sign of progession.  Keep monitoring Young's slugging to see if it makes any strides forward.
• Former Twin and current Mets hopeful Bobby Kielty has decided to ditch his swing from the left-side of the plate and concentrate on his right-handed stroke.  The decision is a sound one.  At this point in his career, the 32-year-old Kielty will be a right-handed hitting specialist and a part-time role player.  In his major league career, Kielty has hit .296/.379/.503 from the right-side of the dish and hit a paltry .228/.329/.348 from the left-side.  Kielty is competing with utility player Marlon Anderson who hit .210/.255/.275 in 138 at bats in 2008 with the Mets.  If the Mets do not carry him, there will be plenty of ballclubs looking for a part-time player that can mash left-handed pitching.
• The White Sox continue to emote encouraging remarks about the newly acquired Bartolo Colon:  "[From] the reports I was getting on Colon early when we first acquired him, the first day I saw him do his throwing program, I thought he was throwing the ball OK, better than what I thought he would be," commented White Sox pitching coach Don Cooper.  I just want to make this abundantly clear: THIS MAN has the opportunity to be the White Sox fourth starter.
• After coming up in the minor leagues as a catcher/first baseman and playing most of his 330 major league games as either a first baseman or a designated hitter, the Cleveland Indians are shifting Ryan Garko to left field this spring to see if it is a fit.  With a rotation that projects to have a lot of left-handed pitching, Garko will be busy covering more real estate than he has ever done before.
• The Cleveland Plain Dealer's Terry Pluto has a great column on the flash-in-the-pan once known as Super Joe Charboneau.
• Even with the optimism from manager Jim Leyland, the Tigers' Dontrelle Willis still had a rough introduction to his spring season.  “I’m really excited about it,” Leyland said before the game. “I’m going to downplay everything all spring until we figure out who No. 5 is going to be, but I’m really looking forward to this one.”  In one inning of work, Willis gave up four runs (two earned), one four-pitch walk and no strikeouts.

 

Notebook Dump (Exhibition Game #2)

Game: Twins 10, Red 4

Box Score

Recap

Spring Training Record: 2-0

  

 

The Notes:

 

• Though it is too early to say if he plans on making this a trend, Brian Buscher has opened spring training at a torrid pace.  In the first two games, he has gone 4-for-5 with two extra base hits including a two-run home run.  Unseeded third base candidate transplanted a Francisco Cordero offering in the top of the fourth to give the Twins an early lead (ESPN says it was in the fourth inning off of Cordero, PiPress's Phil Miller says it was in the second against Micah Owings, so, uh...yeah).  Most analysts will tell you that there is very little to derive from these spring training contests.  John Dewan found that there is a better than normal correlation better a player's spring performance and a potential step-forward in the coming season.  Specifically, Dewan notes that if a player has a spring in which the ballplayer's slugging percentage is .200 points or more above his lifetime slugging percentage, that player is poised for a breakout season.  Naturally, it is still premature, but keep an eye on Buscher's slugging percentage this spring.
• Phil Humber was the first of the bullpen candidates as Boof Bonser's replacement to falter.  Humber was roughed up for four hits and four earned runs while failing to record a strikeout in his first outing of the spring. "Humber couldn't finish anything off. He couldn't get the ball down. We'll work on that," commented Ron Gardenhire. 
• This column is almost past its expiration date but I caught a quick blurb in Jim Souhan's piece on the crowded Twins outfield situation.  Souhan's line reads: "If only this were the biggest problem the 2009 Twins face -- too much talent in one outfield for a franchise that not so long ago was handing at-bats to the platoon of Dustan Mohr and Bobby Kielty, an ancient Otis Nixon, or the regrettable Alex Cole. [italics mine]"  Regrettable?  The only thing regrettable about Alex Cole is that his leg wasn't made out of titanium when he snapped his right leg in Milwaukee in 1995.  Up until that point in the season, Cole was hitting .360/.422/.493 with six extra base hits in 75 at bats.  With him and Chuck Knoblauch headlining the batting order, the Twins seemed to have constant baserunners.  A cheap free agent signing the season prior, Cole had a solid 1994, hitting .296/.375/.403 with four home runs in 398 plate appearances.  Please, Mr Souhan, use Baseball-Reference.com before you publish your column!
• ESPN is reporting that the Dodgers are close to signing former Twin Doug Mientkiewicz to a minor league contract.  The power is gone (if it ever was there) for Mientkiewicz, which playing in the spacious Dodger Stadium will work well.  Mientkiewicz can still work a count for a walk and not strikeout making him a valuable pinch hitter/part-time first baseman -- batters that can walk more than they strikeout are good commedity to have.  In 2008 while playing for a bad Pittsburgh team, Mientkiewicz was asked to vacate his comfort zone at first and man third and play the outfield yet he still managed to have a .374 on-base percentage in 334 plate appearances.  The Dodgers should use him as a pinch hitting and a late-innings defensive replacement for James Loney at first. 
• The Indians new closer Kerry Wood is spending the first few days of spring training held off the mound due to a sore back.  Wood does not seemed concern about the back at this point.  "We got a long spring," the 32-year-old Wood told reporters,"If there's a silver lining it's that we got the extra week to do what we have to do to get it ready." As I had wrote a few days ago, Wood has some of the best stuff of any closer in the game last year.  Undoubtedly, when healthy, Wood could be a steal for the Indians at $10.25 average annual value but his injury potential is the wild card that could quickly turn that contract into an albatross.
• Unlike the Cleveland Indians manager Eric Wedge who made a progressive comment about not looking at batting averages when it come to evaluating players, Ozzie Guillen has decided that someone has to say something that completely negates years of baseball research.  He told reporters in Arizona that he is looking for a leadoff hitter that can cause havoc on the bases. ''The Rickey Henderson era, the Vince Coleman era -- all those guys that can run are done, but I want to go back to that era,'' Guillen said. ''I want a guy that can get on base and make something happen. That's my style, but if you don't have a legit one, then you try finding a different way to do your lineup.''  Obviously, Guillen is associating the two with stolen bases rather than with on-base presence.  Both swindlers had 80% steal rates which was above the breakeven threshold of 70% for making the base worthwhile as leadoff hitters, however, the pair were far from the same.  Henderson was an on-base machine who had a career OBP of .401 while Coleman, on the other hand, was never as good as Rickey was at reaching base and possessed a career OBP of .321. 
• The Royals attempts to move Mark Teahen to second base began poorly, Bob Dutton of the Kansas City Star reports.  The Royals were given a six-run deficient in the first inning that was largely due to Teahen's fielding miscues.  According to Dutton "Teahen threw away a potential double-play grounder that could have ended a scoreless inning. He was a slow to his right on a grounder up the middle that resulted in a two-run single.  And he appeared awkward in trying to turn another potential double play that could have ended the inning at 4-0. Instead, a quickly tiring Ramirez had to keep throwing."  This is a perfect example of shoehorning a player that no longer possesses the skillset to handle - like asking Cuddyer to shift to second.  How did Teahen critique himself?  "I would have liked for it to go better," Teahen said. "But at the same time, it's not that big of a deal. You might note that (former teammate Mark Grudzielanek), the year he won the Gold Glove, made two or three errors in his first game of spring."  Yeah, and Grudzie had also been a former shortstop shifted to second base and not a third baseman-cum-outfielder before transitioning to second base.
• The Tigers have decided not to allow starter Jeremy Bonderman to pitch Saturday against the New York Mets, instead they are opting to have him throw a simulated game.  In 91 starts from 2005 to 2007, Bonderman had thrown 577 innings with 492 strikeouts while going 39-30 with a 4.83 ERA.  His season was cut short in 2008 after 12 starts in which he went 3-4 with a 4.29 in 71 innings due to a circulatory ailment that required season-ending surgery.  Bonderman's velocity had been slipping since 2005 and his strikeout rate tanked from his career-high 8.50 K/9 in 2006.  In spite of being brought up at the young age of 20 to the Majors, Bonderman did not accumulate that many Pitcher Abuse Points that would warrant indicating he was overworked. 

Notebook Dump (Exhibition Style)

Game:  Twinks 5, Red Sux 2

Box Score

Recap

Spring Training Record: 1-0

 

 

 

The Quote:  "He needed to clean up his habits. Just a young guy who didn't really have a plan yet. ... He was just stubborn. He could be lazy in his fundamentals, but it was also that line with Perk where it was just the way he did things. It's not that you're lazy. It's just that his mannerisms looked like he was." - Ron Gardenhire

 

The Quiz: 

 

You are the manager of the Twins and you need to take one of the two starting pitcher's listed below north with you as your fifth starter.  Who do you take?

 

Player A (2008) - 153 innings, 4.66 FIP, 69/32 K/9, 22.9% LD%

Player B (2008) - 151 innings, 5.14 FIP, 74/39 K/9, 22.3% LD% 

 

The Commentary:

 

At various points last year, Perkins pitched like a trust-fund baby, coasting through the season on the 6.23 run support bestowed upon him by his offense while opposing teams tagged him for 4.83 runs per game.  Did he earn his 12-4 record?  No, not really.  He was not deserving of his 4.41 ERA either when you consider his 5.14 fielding independent metric.  You supply 2008 Perkins with league average run support and his record would began to equalize like the scales of justice.  The reality is that if Perkins continues to pitch as he did in 2008, his 2009 will see an inverse of his record and an ERA north of 5.00.   

    In 2008, Perkins had a high line drive rate (22%), a large frequency of flyballs clearing the fence (11.7% HR/FB), and a small amount of strikeouts-per-nine-innings (4.4). For most pitchers, these are not good indicators.  They add up to crooked numbers.  Fortunately for Perkins, his minor league track record may suggest that these numbers are in for a change in 2009.  

    According to minorleaguesplits.com, in 311.3 career innings charted (he has thrown over 367 MiLB innings), Perkins has maintained a line drive rate of 16.0%, well below his totals in 2008.  Over the course of his developmental career, Perkins was about 40% each ground ball/fly ball making him neither type of pitcher.  Because he is such a neutral-type pitcher, it stands to reason that his batted ball statistics will eventually regress in 2009.  

    If there was one area of pitching in which Perkins was unlucky, it would have been in having to watch flyballs sneak over the fence and it certainly seemed that he had to do it a lot considering that he allowed nine home runs in a five game stretch at the end of the year (amazingly the Twins won three of those games).  Nevertheless, Perkins had 11.7% of his flyballs carry over for home runs while the rest of the league only had to watch 8.7%.  Perkins, because he is not necessarily a fly ball pitcher, should see his HR/FB percentage decrease in 2009. 

    Gifted with a low-90's fastball and one that is throw against the earth's rotation, Perkins lit up the minor leagues, striking out 9.3 batters per nine innings.  In his brief encounters with major league hitting as a reliever in 2006 and 2007, Perkins showed that he could induce empty swings.  After shoulder problems in 2007 sidetracked his progress, Perkins was giving a starting role.  On the course to throwing more innings then he has in any given season, Perkins saw his strikeout totals sink.  At the conclusion of the season, he had struck out just 4.4 batters per nine innings.  Given that he was one season removed with arm problems and has a minor league track record of striking batter's out, Perkins stands a good chance of inflating that 4.4 K/9. G

    Given these factors, 2009 looks like it has potential for Glen Perkins. 

 

The Stat:

 

With a minimum of 150 innings pitched, the top ten lowest K/9 read as such:

 

Pitcher	K/9	W-L
L. Hernandez	3.35	13-11
K. Kendrick	3.93	11-9
C. Silva	4.05	4-15
A. Cook	4.09	16-9
P. Byrd	4.10	11-12
J. Garland	4.12	14-8
Z. Duke	4.23	5-14
K. Rogers	4.25	9-13
S. Feldman	4.40	6-8
G. Perkins	4.44	12-4

 

    You want to know what all of the pitchers in this list with winning records had in common?  Run support above league-average (4.78).  Glen Perkins and Livan Hernandez had the two highest amounts of run support, above six runs per start.  The Phillies Kyle Kendrick was close to that with 5.93 runs per start.  Poor Paul Byrd somehow managed to eek out 11 victories while recieving 3.99 runs per game of support.  The point is, pitchers that have a low strikeout rate find themselves on the mercy of their offenses.  Unfortunately, the offense does not have any control over which starting pitcher they provide more runs to from year-to-year.  Needless to say, Perkins is going to have to make bats miss if he wants have a winning record in 2009.  

 

The Notes:  

 

• Wednesday's lineup may have been an early indicator of how Gardenhire might construct his lineup if he were to use Michael Cuddyer over Denard Span in right field on certain days. Simply going off of last year's numbers, Alexi Casilla (.333 OBP) is a much more suitable -- yet far from ideal -- candidate for the leadoff spot over Carlos Gomez (.296 OBP) (assuming he would be in center instead of Jason Pridie). 
• The Twins accumulated 11 hits but just two extra base hits: Justin Morneau and Brian Buscher each had a double. 
• Sigh. Nick, now you are being just effin' stubborn.  
• The Twins signed former Royals prospect Justin Huber to a minor league contract on Wednesday.  Huber, an native Australian, was originally signed by the New York Mets as an amateur free agent catcher in 2000 but was traded to the Kansas City Royals for utility man Jose Bautista (the Mets then flipped Bautista with Ty Wigginton and minor league reliever Matt Peterson for Kris Benson and Jeff Keppinger).  Huber had a great introduction to professional baseball, hitting .314/.381/.528 with 7 home runs while in rookie ball in 2001.  The following season he split the year better the Mets' Sally League (A) team and their Florida State League (A+) where he hit .286/.368/.453 with 14 home runs in 430 at-bats.  Despite his defensive shortcomings behind the dish, his bat carried him in his third season, hitting .274/.337/.468 and getting his first Double-A action of his career.  His 21-year-old season in 2004 would be his last as a Met but he would prove that he could hit Eastern League (AA) pitching as he would bat .271/.390/.487 with 11 home runs in 236 at-bats.  In 2005, his first in the Royals organization, Huber performed at Wichita (AA) and Omaha (AAA) hitting .326/.417/.560 with 23 home runs, that they called the 22-year-old up for a sampling late in the year.  In just 78 at-bats, Huber hit just .218/.271/.256.  In 2006 and 2007, Huber received just 20 big league at-bats and the organization that hope he would secede Mike Sweeney as a power-hitting first baseman, finally traded to San Diego for a player-to-be-named-later in March 2008.  The Padres had him with the big club in May but he lasted until just mid-June, hitting .246/.303/.393, before they sent him back down to their Triple-A affiliate.  Huber, listed at six-foot-two and two hundred pounds, will certainly fill out the Rochester roster nicely, replacing the departed Garrett Jones at first base.  He strikes out a ton but has a very good record of mashing left-handed pitching, batting .332/.402/.519 in his minor league career against southpaws.

AL Central (Spring Training Notes)

Chicago White Sox

 

• Without the employment of Joe Crede, the White Sox will be evaluating the play of Josh Fields at the hot corner.  The Sox will have Fields starting in their spring training opener on Wednesday, giving him the early opportunity to impress.  Fields took over third base in 2007 when Crede was sidelined with his first back injury and he emerged as a power threat, hitting a very Crede-like .244/.308/.480 with 23 home runs in 418 plate appearances.  Injuries and the play of Crede and Carlos Quentin kept Fields in the minor leagues until July at which point he was recalled and hit a putrid .156/.229/.188 in 35 plate appearances.  His defense at third has been atrocious which he has been attempting improve by fielding ground balls all off-season indicates that the White Sox will probably start the season with a very weak link on their left-side.  Veteran starter Mark Buehrle echoed the sentiments of having a consistent player at the position, telling Phil Rogers "We'll definitely miss him. The last couple of years, when he wasn't out there, a ground ball would be hit to third base and I'd think, 'That's an out,' and then turn around and see it go into left field. Nothing against the other guys, but Joe gets to balls they don't. He definitely spoils you."
  • Speaking of Crede, Chicago Tribune's Phil Rogers says that the addition of Joe Crede immediately gives the Twins the inside edge for the AL Central.  Rogers writes that "the signing of Crede, along with Nick Punto's move from third base to shortstop, should give the Twins the kind of solid infield that once backed Brad Radke, Johan Santana, Kenny Rogers and a young Kyle Lohse."
  • White Sox manager Ozzie Guillen on the loss of Joe Crede:  ''It's not pitching. He will make [the Twins'] pitching staff better because their defense will be a lot better. He will create double plays. He knows how to play the game. There is one player who didn't grow up with the Minnesota Twins organization, and he played like a Minnesota Twin. He's that type of player.  They will help him, yes. They got better? If Crede is on the field, they're going to be better. I don't think they'll win the division because of one player. They always had a good club and always will be in the pennant race, and you have to handle it the way we always handle it and see what happens.''
  • AJ Pierzynski chimes in regarding Joe Crede's departure and possibility of playing in the Dome: "I'm not a doctor, but I know when I was there [with the Twins], I know we had a different turf, but we had guys all the time that had healthy backs who were complaining about the field. Joe says he's healthy, so we'll see.''
• White Sox captain Paulie Konerko has indicated that he would be open to a trade if the team deemed it necessary.  Although the 33-year-old first baseman will be a free agent at the end of the season, the White Sox may want to hold on to him for the duration of the season as Konerko is a very likely candidate to have a rebound season.  Last year, while battling a early season hand-injury, Konerko had his worst season since 2003, hitting .240/.344/.438 with 22 home runs in 514 at-bats.  Konerko's numbers were thwarted by bad luck thanks to a suppressed .247 batting average on balls in play even as he hit line drives 21.5% of the time.  His average on those line drives in play was .583, well below the MLB average of .718.  If he continues to swing like he did in 2008, his numbers should revert back towards his career line of .277/.352/.491.   

 

Minnesota Twins

 

• Boof Bonser's arm ailments have officially sidelined him indefinitely this spring, as he will undergo exploratory surgery on his right shoulder Wednesday.  To me, Bonser was never going to be the late innings guy most wanted him to be.  Sure he had the velocity but several problem areas -- most notably, lacking the ability to get left-handed hitters out and pitching from the stretch -- would limit his success as a reliever.  His loss isn't as detrimental as losing Pat Neshek or Joe Nathan, it does however, create an issue of depth and now opens up a spot in the bullpen to compete over.  Philip Humber, R.A. Dickey, Rule 5 pick-up Jason Jones and Sean Henn all have the opportunity to win the now available position in the 'pen.  Of the four, I'd have to handicap Humber as the favorite, considering he is out of options.  Then again, Gardenhire has been infatuated with knuckleballers as of late and may consider bringing Dickey north.

 

Cleveland Indians

 

• The Cleveland Plain Dealer's Paul Hoynes asked Indians manager Eric Wedge whether star centerfielder Grady Sizemore's sinking batting average was of concern to the team.  After all, Sizemore has seen his BA drop from .290 in 2006 to .277 in 2007 to a career-low of .268 in 2008.  Wedge responded well:  "Batting average, unfortunately for a lot people, it's only been really noted in the last five or 10 years, that it is somewhat of an overrated stat. There are so many other numbers that are more important to a team winning a ballgame -- that's all that matters.  It doesn't worry me."  Batting average has long been categorized as "overrated" by many baseball researchers since the 1930s but has only become accepted in baseball circles in the last several decades.  Though a substantial portion of the media still reports a player's ability based on his BA only, there are plenty other statistics that show true production.  If you were to rank those three season of Sizemore's career based on his BA alone, you would say that 2006 was his best, followed by 2007, trailed by 2008.  Sizemore's OPS for those season (OBP plus SLG) was .907 in 2006, .854 in 2007 and .876 in 2008.  Using a more reliable indicator of performance like OPS and you see that 2008 was actually a better season for Sizemore than his batting average would suggest. 

 

Kansas City Royals

 

• I have felt that the Kansas City Royals might be the team that surprises people in 2009.  According to the 1986 Baseball Abstract, Bill James found that "On the whole, there is an unmistakable advantage to teams that which finished well.  The difference is not enormous, but it is significant."  The Royals went 18-8 in September, finishing off the season the best in baseball and providing optimism to a fan base that had be deprived for quite some time.  If you buy into James's research, one would think that the Royals have the ability to improve in 2009.  Unfortunately, the team seems to make decision after decision that impedes their success.  The latest is the potential move of David DeJesus from the leadoff position to third in the batting order to accommodate for the newly acquired Coco Crisp.  DeJesus has been a lifetime hitter with a .360 career on-base percentage while Crisp has a .331 on-base percentage.  Clearly with DeJesus leading off, it gives the Royals better odds of having a runner on base.  What's more is that when the Royals won 18 of 26, DeJesus batted leadoff in 20 of those games and hit a whopping .388/.443/.565.  Ain't broke, don't fix it. 
  

Detroit Tigers

 

• Jason Beck, MLB.com's Tigers beat writer, noted the anticipation Detroit has for Adam Everett, hoping that his acquisition will shore up the defense that was shoddy in 2008.  Interestingly enough, according to Beck, in efforts to find the best shortstop available, the team consulted John Dewan's Fielding Bible.  Everett was by far the best defensive shortstop in the National League in 2006, his last fully-healthy season, but his injury-shortened 2007 and his painful attempt to perform with the Twins in 2008 makes me question how much the 32-year-old Everett has in his tank. 

Caustiously Optimistic

As the market collapsed on free agents, most available players found themselves settling for much less than they initially demanded.  After months of attempting to secure a contract with a guaranteed base salary of $7 million, the Twins and Joe Crede have agreed to terms on a one-year, $2.5 million (plus incentives worth up to $7 million).  The Twins proved that in today's economy that if you hold out long enough, the cream may sink to the bottom. 

 

In spite of his impressive home run total in 2008, Crede is far from a complete hitter.  Last month I forewarned that Crede's home run production should drop precipitously as a direct result of vacating The Cell for The Dome.  Because he will no longer have the benefit of the lauching pad in Chicago, it would stand to reason that Crede's 2008 slugging percentage will take a hit from its .460 mark.  Crede gained several home runs as an extreme flyball hitter in an environment in Chicago that escorted flyballs towards Michigan Avenue.  In fact, among those hitters that have at least 300 plate appearances, Crede was the most prevalent flyball creator:

 

Player	FB%	AVG.
J. Crede	53.7%	.248
J. Mathis	52.8%	.194
K. Millar	50.9%	.234
M. Thames	50.7%	.241
C. Pena	50.3%	.247

 

Crede's low batting average was in direct correlation to his flyball tendencies.  If he continues this elevated trend, it should be expected that his batting average hoovers around .250 or lower considering the MLB average on flyballs was .223.  Here's something interesting though:  Crede wasn't always a flyball hitter. 

 

Year	LD%	FB%
2003	21.7%	43.2%
2004	16.5%	49.5%
2005	19.0%	45.4%
2006	17.8%	50.7%
2007	14.6%	53.5%
2008	14.3%	53.7%

 

There may be several reasons behind this dramatic shift.  The first being that his back problems caused him to alter his swing, resulting in an upper-cut swing (as you can deduce from the chart above, Crede saw his line drives decrease significantly in 2007 and 2008 when he spent time on the disabled list).  The second would be a conscious effort to change his swing to accommodate for US Cellular home run friendly environment.  Whatever the reason for this change may be, Crede would stand to benefit more if he reverted back to hitting line drives more consistently,  which should be the first thing Twins instructors work on him with in Ft Myers. 

 

Some optimists highlight Crede's increased walk rate as an indicator that he has an improved batting eye.  His walk rate jumped from 4.9% in 2006, to 5.6% in an injury-shortened 2007 and finally to a career-high 8.7% in 2008.  There is no real quantifiable explanation for the increase: he actually swung at more pitches outside of the zone than in previous two years (29.2% o-swing).   One possible explanation could be that in 2008 Crede -- whose lineup position was typically eighth for the White Sox -- was often followed by the powerless Juan Uribe, inciting opposing teams to pitch carefully around the home run machine that was Joe Crede.  After all as Crede was slugging .460, Uribe provided the Sox with a listless .386.  Then again, it could be a case of a hitter developing a better batting eye as he matures.  Either way, it was these walks that helped him secure his second-highest seasonal on-base percentage (.318) of his career.  If his walk rate from last year was a one-season wonder and his flyballs continue, expect his OBP to dip again closer to his career OBP of .306. 

 

According to Fangraphs.com, Crede was paid $5.1 million in 2008 but was valued at $8.1 million, mostly due to his stalwart defense at third base rather than the power numbers that many focus on.  Crede's contract insulates the Twins from most liabilities, so even if Crede is only able to play 97 games and provide 373 plate appearances while producing similar numbers both at the plate and in the field to 2008, the Twins should get a very good value even if Crede season ends at the All Star break.