Joe Nathan Breakdown

    In 2009, Joe Nathan will no longer find himself as the lone dominate closer in the AL Central.  Gone are the Todd Jones, Joe Borowskis and Ambiorix Burgoses, upgraded for high quality relievers.  The Royals' Joakim Soria made his grand entrance last year, racked up 42 saves in 2008 while strike out 25% of batters faced and producing a WHIP of 0.861.  Cleveland has acquired potentially the pitcher with the best stuff, albeit injury-prone, in Kerry Wood, who struck out 30% of batters faced and saved 34 games for the Chicago Cubs.  Detroit signed former Diamondbacks closer Brandon Lyon who saved 20 games in the desert before being transitioned back to a set up role.

    How does Joe Nathan's stuff, one that has made a living notching saves at the Metrodome for the better portion of the decade, compare with these and the rest of the league's closers? 

 

Name	FB_WHIFF	VELOCITY	USAGE	Zone%
J. Valverde	.273	95.3	61.5%	73.0%
J. Papelbon	.221	96.1	79.3%	72.7%
B. Ryan	.220	89.7	77.2%	67.0%
K. Wood	.215	96.1	71.1%	70.7%
B. Wilson	.214	96.3	74.9%	64.7%
J. Soria	.209	92.8	73.6%	66.7%
G. Sherrill	.185	90.4	71.5%	62.7%
J. Nathan	.184	95.2	61.0%	61.7%
B. Fuentes	.170	91.8	70.5%	65.9%
K. Gregg	.143	93.4	64.6%	62.4%
J. Putz	.141	94.6	49.7%	60.2%
B. Lidge	.137	96.1	25.1%	54.6%
M. Capps	.134	92.7	81.8%	69.4%
T. Hoffman	.132	87.8	62.3%	75.2%
B. Zieglar	.130	86.6	87.7%	66.9%
F. Rodriguez	.129	92.9	56.8%	61.2%
B. Lyon	.127	92.9	71.7%	67.7%
M. Riveria	.125	93.8	38.5%	46.1%
B. Jenks	.098	94.4	68.9%	67.0%
F. Cordero	.050	95.4	56.0%	47.4%

 

    This is sort of a misrepresentation of Nathan's fastball situation.  MLB.com's Pitch F/X system likes to categorize one of his fastballs as a "splitter" (this categorization should lend some indication as to what sort of action this pitch has).  In truth, the closer has two different fastballs he likes to deploy, one just happens to have a downward burst.  The first of which is a straight four-seamed fastball, which typically registers high velocity and has far greater contact made (a lowly .100 WHIFF).  The second type is a two-seamed fastball that has a strong sinking motion.  In terms of fastballs, the sinking variety is superior at making bats miss.  In 2007, Nathan's WHIFF average on the sinking fastball was .248.  This past season the WHIFF was at .245.  Combining the two fastballs it results in an overall fastball WHIFF of .184.  If he were to rely on the sinking version alone, his WHIFF would rank second behind only Houston's Jose Valverde. 

 

    Nevertheless, according to the chart above Nathan's fastball stands up fairly well, 8th out of 20 closers listed.  Ahead of him are power arms in Valvarde, Jonathon Papelbon, Kerry Wood and Brian Wilson (all above 95-mph).  Joakim Soria's fastball has some filthy movement while both BJ Ryan and George Sherill benefit from throwing against the earth's rotation (read: they're left-handed).  What separates Nathan from the Woods and the Papelbons is in his use of the pitch.  Both Papelbon and Wood are predominately fastball pitchers, both throwing their fastball more than 70% of the time but also attacking the strike zone as well.  Nathan, on the other hand, does not use his fastball nearly as much - despite having similar velocity - and does not exercise as much zone precision. 

 

    Nathan's secondary, or rather his out pitch, is his slider.  After setting up opposing batters with one of his two types of fastball, Nathan issues a sit-on-down, hard-sweeping slider that touches the upper 80's and incites numerous empty swings.  Even though it leaves a stream of opponents muttering to themselves on the way back to the dugout, of the slider-featuring closers, Nathan's slider hardly receives top honors.  That privilege goes to Brad Lidge.  Lidge, as you will see, has the dirtiest sliders in the league.  Referencing the fastball table above, Lidge throws his fastball only a quarter of the time while most tend to use it two-thirds of the time, but Lidge is so confident in his slider that he throws it over half of the time.  Thrown in the mid-80s, Lidge's slider has a .496 WHIFF average.  Another way to interpret this WHIFF is to say that every other swing is a miss.  Just to be able to make contact against Lidge's slider is a feat, so you better believe it isn't hit all that squarely.  The Reds' Francisco Cordero, the next best slider, receives 20% fewer swing-and-misses than Lidge's.

Name	SLD_WHIFF	USAGE	Zone%
B. Lidge	.496	55.2%	68.7%
F. Cordero	.396	28.1%	60.4%
J. Nathan	.373	30.6%	65.5%
K. Gregg	.261	21.2%	50.1%
B. Wilson	.260	25.0%	49.3%
B. Ryan	.209	22.8%	50.6%

 

    This is not to discredit Nathan's slider either: his slider still flirts with 40% of swings missing.  In fact, among all the pitches thrown at least 15% of the time, Nathan's slider has the eighth-best WHIFF. 

Name	Type	WHIFF	USAGE	Zone%
K. Wood	curve	.533	29.3%	57.3%
B. Lidge	slider	.496	55.2%	72.7%
T. Hoffman	change	.475	25.7%	67.2%
J. Putz	change	.441	34.8%	55.4%
B. Fuentes	slider	.417	15.8%	64.0%
F. Cordero	change	.415	15.9%	60.9%
F. Cordero	slider	.396	28.1%	60.4%
J. Nathan	slider	.373	30.6%	65.5%
J. Valverde	change	.364	33.9%	67.3%
F. Rodriguez	curve	.362	28.9%	58.0%
J. Papalbon	change	.347	18.7%	62.6%
G. Sherrill	curve	.338	23.8%	65.0%
B. Lyon	curve	.302	24.4%	66.7%
M. Rivera	cutter	.281	52.3%	70.2%
J. Valverde	fastball	.273	61.5%	73.0%
K. Gregg	slider	.261	21.3%	50.5%
B. Wilson	slider	.226	25.0%	49.3%
J. Papelbon	fastball	.221	79.3%	72.7%
B. Ryan	fastball	.220	77.2%	67.0%
B. Wilson	fastball	.214	74.9%	64.7%

 

    Kerry Wood's $20 million, two-year contract looks very accurate in relation to his stuff.  His fastball was the fourth-best among closers while his hammer-curve gets the honors for the best pitch on the market - better than Lidge's slider and better than the legendary Trevor Hoffman cottonball changeup.  Then again, his arm falls off like the Scarecrow's hey inners so you can't assume he will be available from April to October without some ailment.  Joakim Soria lives off of his fastball - one that isn't thrown particularly hard - but gets bats to miss nonetheless.  Without a complementary out-pitch, Soria may be in for a rough patch in 2009.  Brandon Lyon hardly makes a blip on the charts.  Although his curveball is of value (.302 WHIFF), his fastball has pus written all over it.  Short of Wood maintaining active roster status the entire 162-games, Nathan should retain the title of best closer in the AL Central. 

Twins Notes (Pitchers and Catchers Report Edition)

• La Velle E Neal mentions in his blog that there is development towards adjusting some of the Type A regulations in order to allow for a player like Diamondbacks reliever, Juan Cruz, to be resigned by his current team and then assemble a trade with another team thereby avoiding the need to lose a June draft pick.  This is an intriguing proposition but will probably end up fruitless for the Twins.  Logistically, it feels too complicated.  In order for something like this to work, the Twins would have to wait for the Diamondbacks to sign Cruz to a reasonable contract.  According to the Arizona Republic, Diamondbacks GM, Josh Byrnes said "A solution that works for us and works for him is unclear.  We're at least trying to see how to make this a favorable outcome."  Following that, the Twins would have to negotiate an exchange of players that the Diamondbacks would accept  -- all the while bidding against other franchises that would love his power arm without the lost draft pick associated with him.  Only if the Twins are confident that they would A) receive Cruz at a market or below-market rate and B) not have to give up players that they value, would this adjustment of the Type A regulations lead to a favorable result.  Though the loosened regulation might make it more plausible that the Twins could acquire Cruz, it hard to envision this actually happening.   
• The most recent LASIK success story is, of course, Denard Span.  Span was joined by Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer as two more alumni of the LASIK procedure as well this offseason.  Add prospect Steven Tolleson's name to the growing list of Twins players that have gotten LASIK recently.  Following a full season at Ft Myers (A+) in which he hit .285/.388/.382 in 571 plate appearances, Tolleson advanced to AA where an injury-segmented season had him hitting .300/.382/.466 in 397 plate appearances where he emerged as a hot Twins prospect.  Though a small sample, Tolleson witnessed his production spike in the Arizona Fall League this past offseason, hitting .383/.449/.543 in 94 at-bats.  “There’s a huge difference in the way that I see and that’s got to equate in continued consistency on the baseball field,” said Tolleson.  Josh Johnson has Tolleson ranked at #21 for his top Twins prospects while Aaron Gleeman slotted him at #20. Le Valle reaffirmed Tolleson's non-quantifiable quality of a ballplayer by writing "Steven Tolleson looks like a player. Sometimes its easy to tell the prospects from the major leaguers during these workouts. Tolleson fits right in. I’m sure it helps that his father played in the majors. He’s coming off of a nice Arizona Fall League stint during which he batted .383 and is moving up the list of the Twins’ top prospects. He’s one player I want to see in spring games."  To me, Tolleson is just an impressive spring and progress in Rochester away from finding himself in Minnesota if either Nick Punto or Alexi Casilla are injured. 
• The Mets have signed the remnants of Livan Hernandez to a minor league contract.  "I just feel that we need to have numbers. I think you guys know my philosophy on this: You just never have enough pitching, and starting pitching," Mets GM Omar Minaya said. "Livan can give you innings, he can pitch in different roles." Hernandez stands to make $1 million if he is added to the 25-man roster and another $1 million in incentives.  His time in New York might come sooner rather than later as manager Jerry Manuel indicated that Hernandez has the opportunity to win the vacate 5th starter's spot. 
• Oh yeah.  Welcome, pitchers and catchers. 

 

 

The Others.

Chicago White Sox

 

• The Mighty Whities signed Ben Broussard this week to a minor league contract.  Broussard, a darling of platoon fanatics, hit .186 with the Rangers in 2008 in just 82 at-bats and spent most of last year in the minors with the Cubs and Yankees.  The 32-year-old left-handed first baseman is a career .270/.331/.462 batter against right-handed pitching but has been stymied by the left-handed variety, hitting just .225/.288/.393 off of them.  By all accounts, Broussard will spend the 2009 in AAA Charlotte as roster filler. 

 

Cleveland Indians

 

• Though possibly the most active team out of all the AL Central teams -- adding closer Kerry Wood, set-up man Joe Smith and third baseman Mark DeRosa this offseason -- Cleveland's local media still believes the division goes through Minnesota and Chicago, once again.  Long-time Cleveland Plain Dealer columnist Paul Hoynes, that of the famed 'Hey, Hoynsie' question-and-answer columns, writes that he anticipates the Twins to win the Central followed by the Sox, Indians, Tigers and Royals.   
• The Tribe have enlisted the help of former Twins great Frank Viola as a spring training instructor.  Sweet Music was a teammate of current Indians manager, Eric Wedge, while in Boston in 1992.  Though on the same team, Viola never threw to Wedge in a game.  Nevertheless, Wedge was encouraged to have Viola on board to work with some of the many left-handed pitchers the Indians will feature in camp this spring.  "I heard he wanted to get back into the game so I talked to him over the winter," said Wedge. "With all our left-handed pitchers, we felt he could help us."  Former Twin and current Indian pitching coach, Carl Willis, raved about Viola's presence in camp.  "Viola didn't just have great stuff," said Willis, "he had a great move to first base and he had a great change-up. We're pushing that with some of our lefties."
• Former Indian, Roberto Alomar, decided to take some, albeit small, media attention away from Alex Rodriguez by participating in a good, old-fashioned lawsuit with ex-girlfriend, Ilya Dall.  Dall's suit claims that Alomar, who maybe the first Gold Glover with full-blown AIDS, repeatedly insisted on having unprotected sex despite having "obvious signs of HIV".  The Village Voice, via Deadspin, reports that Dall is a former "arm wrestler" in her home state of New York. 

 

Detroit Tigers

 

•  The following the offseason this year must be a major disappointment for fans that were geared up on the acquisition of Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis (no relation to Carl), Edgar Renteria and Gary Sheffield in the previous two offseasons.  Instead, Motown gets a dose of cross-your-fingers acquistions in shortstop Adam Everett, catcher Gerald Laird and relievers Juan Rincon, Brandon Lyon and Scott Williamson.  Naturally, the core of the Tigers lineup still has plenty of bite, yet it is aging rapidly.  At 30.4 and 29.9, respectively, the Tigers had the 4th oldest lineup and the 2nd oldest pitching staff in the American League.  All for the low, low sum of $137.5 million. 
• With starters Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander returning along with Willis's potential contributions in the rotation, it is not hard to think that Detroit could remain competitive in the Central.  The bullpen, however, with Lyon returning to the closer role, is still a mystery.  Joel Zumaya, who spent a good deal of the 2008 season on the DL, is gunning for the role that was assumed to be Lyon's.  "I've got two guys that I'm going to be fighting for the role," Zumaya said. "They're going to be friends. We're going to be part of the team. But when we're out there, it's going to be competitive." Former Twins minor league pitching coordinator, Rick Knapp, was brought in to be the Tigers pitching coach on his ability to refine relievers. 
  

Kansas City Royals

 

•  Kansas City's 2009 payroll is expected to exceed $70 million.  Though a small number in comparison to the aforementioned $137 million of the Tigers, the $70 million figure represents a 20% increase from 2008.  Yet, the Royals still might not be finished working the free agent market, reportedly looking at Orlando Cabrera, Orlando Hudson and (more plausably) Ray Durham.
• The Royals have toyed with moving outfielder Mark Teahen to second base in 2009.  This is yet another bizarre move for the Royals.  After spending his first four seasons as a third baseman then a fairly decent right fielder in 2007 but a poorer one last season, Teahen is expected to compete for a position that is much more highly skilled than that of a corner outfielder.  The Defensive Spectrum, as I brought up a week ago in reference to Michael Cuddyer, shows that it is much more difficult to slide to the right of the spectrum (DS: 1B -- LF -- RF -- 3B -- CF -- 2b -- SS), if anything, Teahen is primed to become a first baseman -- even if his offense closely resembles that of a second baseman.  Unfortunately, the Royals have two players at first (Mike Jacobs and Billy Butler) and have the need for speedier outfielders to cover more real estate in Kauffman.

Analyzing Ayala

After toying with Eric Gagne and Russ Springer, the Twins have settled on the 31-year-old right-handed Luis Ayala, offering a one-year, $1.3 million contract (which could be worth $1.8 with incentives) pending a physical.  Ayala has further increased the depth of the bullpen, a component that the team was lacking in 2008.  In 81 appearances split between the Nationals and the Mets in 2008, Ayala threw 75.2 innings with a 50/24 K/BB ratio and a 6.32 Runs Allowed Average. 

 

At 41, the Athletics signed a similar type of pitcher in Springer to a contract worth twice as much ($3.3 million).  Gagne is still seeking a contract that smart GMs will laugh at.  Fangraphs recently calculated that the Fair Market Value for Ayala would be $2.8 million, so the actual contract signed could wind up a bargain for the Twins.  What can the Twins expect from Ayala in 2009?

 

Reliever........Contact%

P. Humber......87.5%

L. Ayala........86.5%

J. Crain.........80.0%

M. Guerrier.....77.1%

B. Bonser.......76.2%

C. Breslow......74.5%

J. Nathan.......70.0%

 

Reliever..............K%

J. Nathan........28.3%

B. Bonser........23.3%

C. Breslow.......21.4%

MLB Average........19.1%

J. Crain..........18.6%

M. Guerrier......17.1%

L. Ayala..........14.9%

P. Humber.......12.0%

As you can see from the chart above, Ayala doesn't make too many bats miss.  He does not come equipped with an out-pitch -- his most successful pitch at making batters miss was his changeup (.179 WHIFF) that he throws with a seven mile-per-hour difference from his fastball.  For comparison's sake, every one of the Twins bullpen staff has at least one pitch that has a WHIFF higher than .300.  Ayala is a standard fastball/slider pitcher.  His slider is thrown to contact (.157 WHIFF) coupled with a sinking fastball that incites groundballs (48.5% GB% career).   Ayala's success is contingent on the eight other guys on the field, provided that the ball remains in the field of play.  If you subtract Humber from the Contact Percentage and Strikeout Percentage chart above (considering he only threw 11 innings in 2008 anyways), you can see clearly that Ayala, more than anyone else in the bullpen, requires his defense to convert the outs for him. 

 

So what about those balls in play?  In addition to having a high contact rate, Ayala's opponents made fairly solid contact: almost 23% of those balls put into play were line drives (only Boof Bonser was the only other member of that list to have his LD rate over 19%, the AL average).  With a larger than normal amount of balls scorched on a rope it is no surprise to see that Ayala's BABIP was .320.  On the flip side, fundamentally Ayala is a groundball pitcher.  His career 48.5% groundball rate means that Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla will be busy up the middle.  With a better defensive tandem at second and short, Ayala will watch his BABIP drop closer to league average. 

 

One indication that Ayala will improve in 2009 is his strand rate -- his ability to leave runners on base -- was absurdly low (60.2%), leading to his ERA over 5.  This statistic has the tendency to fluctuate but typically from year-to-year.  The possibility is strong that it will rebound to a higher Left On Base rate in 2009 and see his ERA shrink as a result.  According to Inside Edge's scouting report, in spite of Ayala's high line drive rate, batters were not punishing the righty, so the suggestion is that the runs crossing the plate were a factor of bad luck rather than being knocked around the ballpark.

 

Reliever........Well-Hit Average

C. Breslow.......152

J. Crain..........216

J. Nathan........218

L. Ayala...........232

M. Guerrier.......235

MLB Average.......267

B. Bonser.........271

P. Humber.........318

 

So even though Ayala doesn't necessary fit into the prototypical 8th Inning Guy mold, they did acquired a genuine workhorse with high leverage experience, two areas that needed addressing.  What wore down the Twins' bullpen in 2008 was the lack of bullpen dept.  Ayala's presence will drop Guerrier back to his lower leverage situations wear he is better suited and he will be a safety net for the Twins if Jesse Crain is unable to emerge as the dominate set up man.  

 

Guerrier's One-Year Deal is Suitable

The Twins agreed to terms with reliever Matt Guerrier, settling on a one-year, $1.475 contract.  But as Joe Christensen pointed out, the Twins were attempting to reach a multi-year agreement with Guerrier.  Anything more than the one season is an unnecessary commitment of future finances:  Guerrier, who will be 31-years-old in August, is under control by the Minnesota Twins through 2010 and has a lot to prove.  Opponents owned him in the final two months of 2008, swatting six home runs in 19.2 innings of work.  His 0-5 record and 10.07 ERA in August and September hardly inspired confidence in the reliever.  Why commit anything more?  

 

Including being grossly ineffective the second-half of the season, Guerrier is also a likely injury candidate.  Guerrier has been one of the most overworked relievers in the game the past two years.  Though his 149 appearances didn’t qualify him as the most-used reliever – the Nationals’ Saul Rivera was used over 161 times in 2007 and 2008 – his 164 innings led to 1.10 innings per outing average over the past two seasons, a significant amount of work.  This is on par with the experience of Scott Proctor.  The 31-year-old Proctor was run out to the mound while with the Yankees 83 times in 2006 to throw 102.1 innings.  In 2007, Proctor split the year between New York and the Dodgers and was once again trotted out 83 times but threw 86 innings total.  After 163 appearances and 188 innings (1.15 Inn/App), Proctor started 2008 ineffective, throwing 31.2 innings with a 6.82 ERA as opponents slugged .504 off of him, and complained about pain in his arm.  The righty spent 60 days on the DL in 2008 and witnessed his velocity drop (from 94.4 in 2006 to 92.8 last season) and control wane (2.9 BB/9 in 2006 to 5.59 BB/9 last year).  This offseason, the Florida Marlins obtained Proctor for $750,000.   

 

Like Proctor, Guerrier saw his command fail him too -- as evident by his BB/9 inflating from 2.15 in 2007 to 4.36 last year -- but Guerrier’s numbers show promise that his career could head in a different direction than Proctor’s.  Guerrier’s velocity stayed relatively the same (91.6 in 2007 and 91.4 in 2008), dispelling any immediate concerns of pitching in pain.  As I highlighted last month, Guerrier still has a very effective assortment of breaking pitches.  His slider is especially devastating, reflective in his .423 WHIFF average, and his strikeout rate has remained steady at 6.96 K/9.  Furthermore, Guerrier’s BABIP of .315 was significantly higher than both his career average of .291 and the league’s average of .295.  As an indicator of luck, Guerrier should see his BABIP regress closer to the league average in 2009.   

 

If the Twins manage to trim off 15-20 appearances in 2009, Guerrier’s likelihood of having a solid season increases.  Through his first 55 games in 2007, Guerrier held a 1.96 ERA, 49/15 K/BB ratio and an opponent average of .202.  In his first 50 games in 2008, Guerrier had a 3.23 ERA, a 44/23 K/BB ratio and an opponent average of .242.  Space out 50-60 appearances in lower leverage situations and he is likely to replicate his early season success from April until September.  If he responds well in these appearances, the Twins and Guerrier will once again exchange figures and the front office can look to secure Guerrier’s first season of free agent eligibility.  If he does not respond well to the lighter work load or it does surface that Guerrier has a tired arm, the Twins now have the option of replacing him in 2010 with several internal candidates at a less expensive rate.   

 

Either way Guerrier’s 2009 season plays out, in the end, avoiding signing him to a multi-year contract was a smart move.