Twins Notes (Pitchers and Catchers Report Edition)

• La Velle E Neal mentions in his blog that there is development towards adjusting some of the Type A regulations in order to allow for a player like Diamondbacks reliever, Juan Cruz, to be resigned by his current team and then assemble a trade with another team thereby avoiding the need to lose a June draft pick.  This is an intriguing proposition but will probably end up fruitless for the Twins.  Logistically, it feels too complicated.  In order for something like this to work, the Twins would have to wait for the Diamondbacks to sign Cruz to a reasonable contract.  According to the Arizona Republic, Diamondbacks GM, Josh Byrnes said "A solution that works for us and works for him is unclear.  We're at least trying to see how to make this a favorable outcome."  Following that, the Twins would have to negotiate an exchange of players that the Diamondbacks would accept  -- all the while bidding against other franchises that would love his power arm without the lost draft pick associated with him.  Only if the Twins are confident that they would A) receive Cruz at a market or below-market rate and B) not have to give up players that they value, would this adjustment of the Type A regulations lead to a favorable result.  Though the loosened regulation might make it more plausible that the Twins could acquire Cruz, it hard to envision this actually happening.   
• The most recent LASIK success story is, of course, Denard Span.  Span was joined by Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer as two more alumni of the LASIK procedure as well this offseason.  Add prospect Steven Tolleson's name to the growing list of Twins players that have gotten LASIK recently.  Following a full season at Ft Myers (A+) in which he hit .285/.388/.382 in 571 plate appearances, Tolleson advanced to AA where an injury-segmented season had him hitting .300/.382/.466 in 397 plate appearances where he emerged as a hot Twins prospect.  Though a small sample, Tolleson witnessed his production spike in the Arizona Fall League this past offseason, hitting .383/.449/.543 in 94 at-bats.  “There’s a huge difference in the way that I see and that’s got to equate in continued consistency on the baseball field,” said Tolleson.  Josh Johnson has Tolleson ranked at #21 for his top Twins prospects while Aaron Gleeman slotted him at #20. Le Valle reaffirmed Tolleson's non-quantifiable quality of a ballplayer by writing "Steven Tolleson looks like a player. Sometimes its easy to tell the prospects from the major leaguers during these workouts. Tolleson fits right in. I’m sure it helps that his father played in the majors. He’s coming off of a nice Arizona Fall League stint during which he batted .383 and is moving up the list of the Twins’ top prospects. He’s one player I want to see in spring games."  To me, Tolleson is just an impressive spring and progress in Rochester away from finding himself in Minnesota if either Nick Punto or Alexi Casilla are injured. 
• The Mets have signed the remnants of Livan Hernandez to a minor league contract.  "I just feel that we need to have numbers. I think you guys know my philosophy on this: You just never have enough pitching, and starting pitching," Mets GM Omar Minaya said. "Livan can give you innings, he can pitch in different roles." Hernandez stands to make $1 million if he is added to the 25-man roster and another $1 million in incentives.  His time in New York might come sooner rather than later as manager Jerry Manuel indicated that Hernandez has the opportunity to win the vacate 5th starter's spot. 
• Oh yeah.  Welcome, pitchers and catchers. 

 

 

The Others.

Chicago White Sox

 

• The Mighty Whities signed Ben Broussard this week to a minor league contract.  Broussard, a darling of platoon fanatics, hit .186 with the Rangers in 2008 in just 82 at-bats and spent most of last year in the minors with the Cubs and Yankees.  The 32-year-old left-handed first baseman is a career .270/.331/.462 batter against right-handed pitching but has been stymied by the left-handed variety, hitting just .225/.288/.393 off of them.  By all accounts, Broussard will spend the 2009 in AAA Charlotte as roster filler. 

 

Cleveland Indians

 

• Though possibly the most active team out of all the AL Central teams -- adding closer Kerry Wood, set-up man Joe Smith and third baseman Mark DeRosa this offseason -- Cleveland's local media still believes the division goes through Minnesota and Chicago, once again.  Long-time Cleveland Plain Dealer columnist Paul Hoynes, that of the famed 'Hey, Hoynsie' question-and-answer columns, writes that he anticipates the Twins to win the Central followed by the Sox, Indians, Tigers and Royals.   
• The Tribe have enlisted the help of former Twins great Frank Viola as a spring training instructor.  Sweet Music was a teammate of current Indians manager, Eric Wedge, while in Boston in 1992.  Though on the same team, Viola never threw to Wedge in a game.  Nevertheless, Wedge was encouraged to have Viola on board to work with some of the many left-handed pitchers the Indians will feature in camp this spring.  "I heard he wanted to get back into the game so I talked to him over the winter," said Wedge. "With all our left-handed pitchers, we felt he could help us."  Former Twin and current Indian pitching coach, Carl Willis, raved about Viola's presence in camp.  "Viola didn't just have great stuff," said Willis, "he had a great move to first base and he had a great change-up. We're pushing that with some of our lefties."
• Former Indian, Roberto Alomar, decided to take some, albeit small, media attention away from Alex Rodriguez by participating in a good, old-fashioned lawsuit with ex-girlfriend, Ilya Dall.  Dall's suit claims that Alomar, who maybe the first Gold Glover with full-blown AIDS, repeatedly insisted on having unprotected sex despite having "obvious signs of HIV".  The Village Voice, via Deadspin, reports that Dall is a former "arm wrestler" in her home state of New York. 

 

Detroit Tigers

 

•  The following the offseason this year must be a major disappointment for fans that were geared up on the acquisition of Miguel Cabrera, Dontrelle Willis (no relation to Carl), Edgar Renteria and Gary Sheffield in the previous two offseasons.  Instead, Motown gets a dose of cross-your-fingers acquistions in shortstop Adam Everett, catcher Gerald Laird and relievers Juan Rincon, Brandon Lyon and Scott Williamson.  Naturally, the core of the Tigers lineup still has plenty of bite, yet it is aging rapidly.  At 30.4 and 29.9, respectively, the Tigers had the 4th oldest lineup and the 2nd oldest pitching staff in the American League.  All for the low, low sum of $137.5 million. 
• With starters Jeremy Bonderman and Justin Verlander returning along with Willis's potential contributions in the rotation, it is not hard to think that Detroit could remain competitive in the Central.  The bullpen, however, with Lyon returning to the closer role, is still a mystery.  Joel Zumaya, who spent a good deal of the 2008 season on the DL, is gunning for the role that was assumed to be Lyon's.  "I've got two guys that I'm going to be fighting for the role," Zumaya said. "They're going to be friends. We're going to be part of the team. But when we're out there, it's going to be competitive." Former Twins minor league pitching coordinator, Rick Knapp, was brought in to be the Tigers pitching coach on his ability to refine relievers. 
  

Kansas City Royals

 

•  Kansas City's 2009 payroll is expected to exceed $70 million.  Though a small number in comparison to the aforementioned $137 million of the Tigers, the $70 million figure represents a 20% increase from 2008.  Yet, the Royals still might not be finished working the free agent market, reportedly looking at Orlando Cabrera, Orlando Hudson and (more plausably) Ray Durham.
• The Royals have toyed with moving outfielder Mark Teahen to second base in 2009.  This is yet another bizarre move for the Royals.  After spending his first four seasons as a third baseman then a fairly decent right fielder in 2007 but a poorer one last season, Teahen is expected to compete for a position that is much more highly skilled than that of a corner outfielder.  The Defensive Spectrum, as I brought up a week ago in reference to Michael Cuddyer, shows that it is much more difficult to slide to the right of the spectrum (DS: 1B -- LF -- RF -- 3B -- CF -- 2b -- SS), if anything, Teahen is primed to become a first baseman -- even if his offense closely resembles that of a second baseman.  Unfortunately, the Royals have two players at first (Mike Jacobs and Billy Butler) and have the need for speedier outfielders to cover more real estate in Kauffman.

Analyzing Ayala

After toying with Eric Gagne and Russ Springer, the Twins have settled on the 31-year-old right-handed Luis Ayala, offering a one-year, $1.3 million contract (which could be worth $1.8 with incentives) pending a physical.  Ayala has further increased the depth of the bullpen, a component that the team was lacking in 2008.  In 81 appearances split between the Nationals and the Mets in 2008, Ayala threw 75.2 innings with a 50/24 K/BB ratio and a 6.32 Runs Allowed Average. 

 

At 41, the Athletics signed a similar type of pitcher in Springer to a contract worth twice as much ($3.3 million).  Gagne is still seeking a contract that smart GMs will laugh at.  Fangraphs recently calculated that the Fair Market Value for Ayala would be $2.8 million, so the actual contract signed could wind up a bargain for the Twins.  What can the Twins expect from Ayala in 2009?

 

Reliever........Contact%

P. Humber......87.5%

L. Ayala........86.5%

J. Crain.........80.0%

M. Guerrier.....77.1%

B. Bonser.......76.2%

C. Breslow......74.5%

J. Nathan.......70.0%

 

Reliever..............K%

J. Nathan........28.3%

B. Bonser........23.3%

C. Breslow.......21.4%

MLB Average........19.1%

J. Crain..........18.6%

M. Guerrier......17.1%

L. Ayala..........14.9%

P. Humber.......12.0%

As you can see from the chart above, Ayala doesn't make too many bats miss.  He does not come equipped with an out-pitch -- his most successful pitch at making batters miss was his changeup (.179 WHIFF) that he throws with a seven mile-per-hour difference from his fastball.  For comparison's sake, every one of the Twins bullpen staff has at least one pitch that has a WHIFF higher than .300.  Ayala is a standard fastball/slider pitcher.  His slider is thrown to contact (.157 WHIFF) coupled with a sinking fastball that incites groundballs (48.5% GB% career).   Ayala's success is contingent on the eight other guys on the field, provided that the ball remains in the field of play.  If you subtract Humber from the Contact Percentage and Strikeout Percentage chart above (considering he only threw 11 innings in 2008 anyways), you can see clearly that Ayala, more than anyone else in the bullpen, requires his defense to convert the outs for him. 

 

So what about those balls in play?  In addition to having a high contact rate, Ayala's opponents made fairly solid contact: almost 23% of those balls put into play were line drives (only Boof Bonser was the only other member of that list to have his LD rate over 19%, the AL average).  With a larger than normal amount of balls scorched on a rope it is no surprise to see that Ayala's BABIP was .320.  On the flip side, fundamentally Ayala is a groundball pitcher.  His career 48.5% groundball rate means that Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla will be busy up the middle.  With a better defensive tandem at second and short, Ayala will watch his BABIP drop closer to league average. 

 

One indication that Ayala will improve in 2009 is his strand rate -- his ability to leave runners on base -- was absurdly low (60.2%), leading to his ERA over 5.  This statistic has the tendency to fluctuate but typically from year-to-year.  The possibility is strong that it will rebound to a higher Left On Base rate in 2009 and see his ERA shrink as a result.  According to Inside Edge's scouting report, in spite of Ayala's high line drive rate, batters were not punishing the righty, so the suggestion is that the runs crossing the plate were a factor of bad luck rather than being knocked around the ballpark.

 

Reliever........Well-Hit Average

C. Breslow.......152

J. Crain..........216

J. Nathan........218

L. Ayala...........232

M. Guerrier.......235

MLB Average.......267

B. Bonser.........271

P. Humber.........318

 

So even though Ayala doesn't necessary fit into the prototypical 8th Inning Guy mold, they did acquired a genuine workhorse with high leverage experience, two areas that needed addressing.  What wore down the Twins' bullpen in 2008 was the lack of bullpen dept.  Ayala's presence will drop Guerrier back to his lower leverage situations wear he is better suited and he will be a safety net for the Twins if Jesse Crain is unable to emerge as the dominate set up man.  

 

Guerrier's One-Year Deal is Suitable

The Twins agreed to terms with reliever Matt Guerrier, settling on a one-year, $1.475 contract.  But as Joe Christensen pointed out, the Twins were attempting to reach a multi-year agreement with Guerrier.  Anything more than the one season is an unnecessary commitment of future finances:  Guerrier, who will be 31-years-old in August, is under control by the Minnesota Twins through 2010 and has a lot to prove.  Opponents owned him in the final two months of 2008, swatting six home runs in 19.2 innings of work.  His 0-5 record and 10.07 ERA in August and September hardly inspired confidence in the reliever.  Why commit anything more?  

 

Including being grossly ineffective the second-half of the season, Guerrier is also a likely injury candidate.  Guerrier has been one of the most overworked relievers in the game the past two years.  Though his 149 appearances didn’t qualify him as the most-used reliever – the Nationals’ Saul Rivera was used over 161 times in 2007 and 2008 – his 164 innings led to 1.10 innings per outing average over the past two seasons, a significant amount of work.  This is on par with the experience of Scott Proctor.  The 31-year-old Proctor was run out to the mound while with the Yankees 83 times in 2006 to throw 102.1 innings.  In 2007, Proctor split the year between New York and the Dodgers and was once again trotted out 83 times but threw 86 innings total.  After 163 appearances and 188 innings (1.15 Inn/App), Proctor started 2008 ineffective, throwing 31.2 innings with a 6.82 ERA as opponents slugged .504 off of him, and complained about pain in his arm.  The righty spent 60 days on the DL in 2008 and witnessed his velocity drop (from 94.4 in 2006 to 92.8 last season) and control wane (2.9 BB/9 in 2006 to 5.59 BB/9 last year).  This offseason, the Florida Marlins obtained Proctor for $750,000.   

 

Like Proctor, Guerrier saw his command fail him too -- as evident by his BB/9 inflating from 2.15 in 2007 to 4.36 last year -- but Guerrier’s numbers show promise that his career could head in a different direction than Proctor’s.  Guerrier’s velocity stayed relatively the same (91.6 in 2007 and 91.4 in 2008), dispelling any immediate concerns of pitching in pain.  As I highlighted last month, Guerrier still has a very effective assortment of breaking pitches.  His slider is especially devastating, reflective in his .423 WHIFF average, and his strikeout rate has remained steady at 6.96 K/9.  Furthermore, Guerrier’s BABIP of .315 was significantly higher than both his career average of .291 and the league’s average of .295.  As an indicator of luck, Guerrier should see his BABIP regress closer to the league average in 2009.   

 

If the Twins manage to trim off 15-20 appearances in 2009, Guerrier’s likelihood of having a solid season increases.  Through his first 55 games in 2007, Guerrier held a 1.96 ERA, 49/15 K/BB ratio and an opponent average of .202.  In his first 50 games in 2008, Guerrier had a 3.23 ERA, a 44/23 K/BB ratio and an opponent average of .242.  Space out 50-60 appearances in lower leverage situations and he is likely to replicate his early season success from April until September.  If he responds well in these appearances, the Twins and Guerrier will once again exchange figures and the front office can look to secure Guerrier’s first season of free agent eligibility.  If he does not respond well to the lighter work load or it does surface that Guerrier has a tired arm, the Twins now have the option of replacing him in 2010 with several internal candidates at a less expensive rate.   

 

Either way Guerrier’s 2009 season plays out, in the end, avoiding signing him to a multi-year contract was a smart move.   

 

    

 

 

 

Did Tom Kelly Wreck Brad Radke's Career?

    When the 33-year-old Brad Radke retired following the 2006 season after 12 seasons with the Twins, many of those played with futile teams, he did so leaving behind a 148-139 record (.516 win pct) in 377 starts, a 4.22 ERA and 1467-to-445 strikeouts-to-walks ratio.  Yet it seems like an abrupt end to Radke's career.  Andy Pettite, who finished ahead of Radke for the 1995 Rookie of the Year award, is about to start his 16th season.  Why did Radke succumb to shoulder injuries that forced him to retire when some of his compatriots continue to pitch?  

 

 

    There were two parts to the problems that would lead to Radke's early retirement: timing and management.  The first, timing, came from personnel moves from the front office forced Radke to enter the starting rotation at a young age.  With the impending free agency of Kevin Tapani and the ineffectiveness of Scott Erickson, the Twins traded two members of the rotation that were heavily relied upon.  At 22 years old most pitching prospect are putting the final touches at AA and AAA, but Radke was about to receive a baptism by fire.  The second, and most important aspect that led to later a final rotator cuff injury, was game management.

 

    The best way to measure a pitcher's workload is by season is to use Rany Jazayerli's Pitcher Abuse Points system.  Between Craig Wright's "The Diamond Appraised" and Jazayerli's research, these sabermaticians found that it wasn't the amount of innings or pitches thrown that causes damage for pitchers, but rather it was pitching past the point of fatigue.  Jazayerli's analysis shows that the 100 pitch mark is about the threshold for the average starting pitcher and he devised a points-based system that assigns a value as the pitch count grows.   One point is assigned to every pitch from 101-110; Two points from every pitch from 111-120;  Three points for every pitch from 121-130 and so on.  According to his article, "These points are cumulative: a 115-pitch outing gets you 20 PAP's - 1 for each pitch from 101-110 (10 total), and 2 for each pitch from 111-115 (10 total). A 120-pitch outing is worth 30 PAP's, while a 140-pitch outing is worth 100 PAP's - more than 3 times as much. This seems fair; a pitcher doesn't get tired all at once, but fatigue sets on gradually, and with each pitch the danger of continuing to pitch grows."

 

    Below is a season-by-season look at Radke's Pitcher Abuse Points: 

 

	22 yrs	23 yrs	24 yrs	25 yrs	26 yrs	27 yrs	28 yrs	29 yrs	30 yrs	31 yrs	32 yrs	33 yrs
PAP	187	288	368	498	137	409	148	38	101	178	56	27

 

    The Kelly Years (22 yrs to 28 yrs)

 

    The 22-year-old Brad Radke was summoned to the Twins, unscathed by AAA experience, and the burden of the those lost innings  fell on to the young Radke's shoulders.  Manager Tom Kelly and pitching coach Dick Such rode Radke hard -- the young pitcher had accumulated 187 PAP in 1995.  In four of his starts, the Twins had Radke throw 111-to-120 pitches on four occasions and once he threw over 131 pitches.  The following season he would make 35 starts and work 232 innings at the tender age of 23, amassing 288 PAP - throwing over 121 pitches four times. It was obvious that Radke was trending upwards.  At age 24, Radke had what most agree was his best season.  In 35 starts, Radke went 20-10 with a 3.87 ERA while pitching 239.7 innings.  What was most impressive about this display was the fact that his 20 victories accounted for nearly 30% of the team's total (68 in all) and his strikeout rate was up to a career-high 17.6%.  Still, with success came additional workload and Radke's Pitching Abuse Points for the season was up to 368.  The next season, 1998, Radke tallied his highest PAP of his career to date with 498 with an ERA of 4.30 in 35 starts and 213 innings.  Interestingly enough, after two consecutive seasons with heavy workloads (368 and 498 PAP each) and high strikeout rates (17.6% and 16.1% respectively), Radke's strikeout totals diminished to 13% in 1999.  In just five starts he entered the 111-120 pitch range all year - mostly staying under 100 pitches - while still throwing well over 200 innings (218) and as a result the Twins received a low 3.75 ERA, a new career low.  This success could be attributed to the fact that in 33 starts, the 26 year old finished the season with his lowest PAP total (137) since his rookie campaign.  Nevertheless, Kelly and Such regressed to their old ways and allowed Radke to labor on the mound in 2000 as a 27 year old.  In four games, Radke threw more than 121 pitches and throw between 111-and-120 in seven more. Fresh off of his contract extension, Brad Radke would finish the year with 407 PAP while making 34 starts and throwing 226.7 innings with a 4.45 ERA.  In 2001, in what would be Tom Kelly and Dick Such's last season as the field managers, Radke made 33 starts and matched his 226 innings from the prior year.  In those 33 starts, Radke would rarely throw into the 111-to-120 pitch range (four) and threw more than 121 just once, resulting in a PAP of 148 while providing an ERA of 3.94.  Judging from his 1999 and 2001 seasons, it would seem that Radke would respond better to a less abusive pitch count. 

 

The Gardenhire Years (29 yrs to 33 yrs)

 

      When Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson assumed the roles of manager and pitching coach, the pair seemed to approach their positions differently then the previous regime.  On the pitching mound, no Twins starter broke the 200 inning barrier.  The starters as a group went from throwing nearly 70% of the total innings just 62% in 2002.  This slight adjustment helped the rotation's ERA go from 4.46 to 4.38, a small difference.  An early season strained groin would give Radke his lightest workload since his rookie year, avoiding the 200 inning mark (118) amounting to only 38 PAP in just 21 starts.  A year later, the 30 year old Radke would be ready to throw 200 innings once again and make 33 starts, finishing 14-10 with a 4.49 ERA, and a 101 PAP -- his lowest total in a full season yet.  In 2004, Radke would make 34 starts with a 11-8 record and a career-low 3.48 ERA in 219 innings.  He would also only reach 178 PAP that season as well.  It was after that season in which Radke faced a big decision.  Once again, he would be a free agent and following a year in which he had a 3.48 ERA, he would be a desired commodity.  The Red Sox supposedly offered a four-year, $27 million dollar contract but the Twins pitcher for life passed it over to remain with the team that drafted and developed him to a two-year, $18 million contract.  "We're comfortable in Minnesota," Radke told NY Times reporters. "I was looking for something fair. If the Twins didn't come up with a fair deal, I'd be playing for the Red Sox right now. I didn't know what to expect. Half of me thought I was going to go somewhere else; the other half thought it would work out. I'm glad it did. My family is happy. Plus we've been to the postseason the last three years. Why change?"

    Radke's fortunes, along with the rest of the team, would turn in 2005.  After three straight division championships, the Twins would sink to 3rd in the division as Radke would finish 9-12 in 31 starts, working 200 innings with an ERA of 4.04.  Gardenhire's game management added only 56 PAP to his now 32 year old arm that season, an arm that was hanging by a thread.  Radke made references to the pain in his shoulder after each start.  He would try to work through it in 2006, in what would ultimately be his last season.  In mid-August the pain would be unbareable and Radke would eventually sit the month and almost all of September out in hopes that the rest would offer repair.  That final season Radke would make 28 starts and toss 162 innings, end the year with a 12-9 record and a 4.32 ERA. 

 

	Starters	Innings	K%	ERA	PAP	PAP/Start
Kelly/Such	230	1535	14%	4.27	2037	8.85
Gardenhire/Anderson	147	911	13.8%	4.15	400	2.72

    In seven seasons managed by Tom Kelly, Brad Radke had 2,037 Pitcher Abuse Points on his arm, an average of 8.85 PAP per start.  In five seasons while managed by Ron Gardenhire, Radke put only 400 Pitching Abuse Points on his arm, an average of 2.72 PAP per start.  There are several theories as to why Kelly used Radke more liberally, while Gardenhire more conservatively.  Gardenhire had the luxury of pairing Radke with Johan Santana, Carlos Silva and Kyle Lohse.  These pitchers provided a level of reliance that Kelly never had with the likes of Frankie Rodriguez, Mike Trombley and Rich Robertson.  Secondly, the bullpens under Ron Gardenhire were far superior than what Kelly was forced to call upon in the mid-to-late 1990s -- milking out an additional inning from Radke keeps the relievers off the mound. 

 

    Still, whatever the logic behind it, either knowingly or unknowingly, Kelly was slowly doing damage to Radke's arm.  Think of Kelly's increased workload of Radke to that of a smoker.  A young smoker at the age of 22 might not think there is any damage incurring to their lungs when they inhale a pack a day, but as the years progress, their lung capacity is gone.   Even when Gardenhire began to curb his usage, the damage was already done.  Sure, the entire premise of this statement seems littered with blaspheme, accusing a two-time World Series winning manager of not being able to handle his young pitcher.  However, when we review the evidence above, we find that it is true.  Tom Kelly's mismanagement of Brad Radke cost him at least one or two seasons in his career.