Adieu, 2008.

Now that the first complete calender year of Twins blogging at Over The Baggy is almost over, I want to take the opportunity to those out there that have made the visits -- over 35,000 stops in all in 2008.  Regularly or irregularly, I know you have umpteen Twins blogs to choose from and I appreciate you taking time out of your day to peruse the writings and jottings left up here.    

 

A special thanks goes out to the Twins Geek, John Bonnes, who was kind enough to let me pen some dribble for his GameDay magazine.  Blogging is one thing, but to have words written on dead trees that feels...well, kind of archaic by technological standards, but it is easier to read in the bathroom.  Jokes aside, it is a great periodical to procure when you are at the Dome and are looking for more indepth analysis of the Twins (and baseball in general) that is not offered by the publication sold inside the stadium.  Having visited nearly a dozen Major League stadiums over the summer that lack such an offering, I can say that it says a lot about (1) the academic nature of the fans and (2) entrepruenurialism of our local community that provides an alternative to progandaish in-house program.  I believe that Twins fans are some of the best educated in the country considering the amount of blogs dedicated to and the material offered within them.

 

I want to thank the Twins Blogger Extraordinaire, author of AaronGleeman.com, Aaron Gleeman, who connected me with a small smattering of blurbing for Rotoworld and also recommending me to Dave Gassko of The Hardball Times.  Because of this, Gassko contacted me to write the Twins section and players comments in the forthcoming The Hardball Times Season Preview 2009 -- Which, by the way, you can pre-order the book here for a mere $19.95.  Gleeman's site continues to mesmerize me by the sheer volume of work he uploads and the breadth of the topics.  In a way, Gleeman has become to the Twin Cities what Bill Simmons was to Boston (except less obnoxious about his homerism and not on the ESPN payroll -- yet) providing unending and uncompromising coverage of the hometown Twins and coupling that with entertaining Link-O-Ramas that diverge from sports at times to fill the doldrums of Friday mornings. 

Finally, Seth Stohs, of SethSpeaks.net, has been a great resource, allowing me a sneak preview of his Prospect Handbook 2009 in order to scribe a short review on the manuscript.  In addition to frequently linking to my site, he's been kind enough to have me on his Weekly Podcasts several times only to listen to me stammer and lose my train of thought miles before the conclusion station arrives.  Most recently in last night's podcast that included Twins prospects Kyle Waldrop and Jeff Manship.  Stohs's new venture to podcasting has allowed him to unveil what seems to be never-ending appearances by Twins prospects, providing fans with not just information, but a forum for dialogue to the future of the organization long before they call 34 Kirby Puckett Place home (most never will now, I suppose).  This sort of action would have blown my mind as a 12-year-old and yet, at times, I cannot fully believe how much the proliferation of the Internet has allowed us to connect with players that were once just a last name one day a week in the Star Tribune.  What a world we live in - and Stohs is helping making it a little bit smaller for Twins fans. 

 

There are plenty of other bloggers who I read daily myself (most of which are linked above but dozens of others that are not) and their writings continue to give me something to chew on or be entertained by day-in and day-out, they are deserving of my thanks and your patronage too.  I hope to continue to provide meaningful insight and analysis to fill a small corner of the Internet in 2009.  Please continue to visit in the coming year.  Here's shooting for 70,000 in 2009. 

 

Thanks again to all and have a happy and safe New Years! 

 

The Curious Case of Matthew Guerrier

In 2006, the Twins had Matt Guerrier supply 69.2 innings of low leverage relief work, performing adequately evident by his 3.77 Runs Allowed Average.  His overall season totals would have been much better had September been extracted.  In that month, Guerrier threw 23.1 innings (including one start) and allowed seven of his nine home runs along with an opponent slugging percentage of .549.  No matter, the following season Guerrier began like September of 2006 never happened.  In his first 15 innings, Guerrier limited opponents to a .122 BA.  Through June 24th of 2007, Guerrier held opponents to a .164 BA and had a decent 33-to-11 K-to-BB ratio.  This performance coupled with the losses of Dennys Reyes, Jesse Crain and Pat Neshek gave Guerrier the opportunity to pitch in high leverage situations.  In 2006, his leverage index was 0.50 but increased to 0.93 at the conclusion of 2007.  But with the added responsibility came the added challenges of retiring better hitters.  In the first half of the season, Guerrier had a 1.70 Runs Allowed Average supported by a .183/.246/.253 opponent batting line and surrendered just two home runs.  Following the All Star break, Guerrier's numbers were in flux.  His RAA ballooned to 3.34 from the 1.70 in the first half and opponents hit .272/.318/.463 while smacking seven home runs.   

 

Similar to 2007, the Twins were put in a situation without Neshek, this time early in the season.  Once again manager Ron Gardenhire turned to Guerrier and had him fill the majority of those high leverage situations (1.27 in 2008, up from 0.93).  In 51 innings in the first half of the season, Guerrier posted a 3.70 RAA with a 38-to-21 K-to-BB ratio.  In 217 plate appearances opponents hit .241/.315/.374.  Once again after the All Star break Guerrier found himself in another precarious situation where he was getting pummeled.  In the ensuing 25.1 innings, he held a 9.32 RAA and allowed seven home runs with a .336/.417/.582. 

 

This sort of drop-off in production was previously reserved for Juan Rincon.  So what are the factors behind the 29 year old's decline? 

 

Matt Guerrier is essentially a three-pitch pitcher, the first of which is the most common among relievers' arsenals, the fastball.   

 

Fastball	MPH	Usage	Zone	WHIFF	Batted Ball Outs %
2007	92.1	60.8%	63.1%	.185	66.1%
2008	92.4	67.%	42.8%	.048	67.5%

His fastball ranges from 90-94 but has averaged 92 the past two seasons. Though not predominantly an out-pitch, Guerrier's 2007 WHIFF of .185 was fairly decent by the fastball standards among relievers.  (For those unfamiliar with this metric, WHIFF average is the measurement of swing-and-misses on a particular pitch.  In this instance, the data is extracted from Josh Kalk's Pitch f/x database.)  What stands out in this comparison of his past two seasons, is the zone presences and his WHIFF effectiveness.  In 2007, Guerrier located the pitch within the zone 63% of the time, establishing an early strike.  One year later, Guerrier struggled to find the zone with his fastball in fewer than half of the times he threw it (42.8%).  It is no small wonder that in turn his WHIFF decreased to .048 and his walk rate spiked from 5.9% in 2007 to 10.7% in 2008.

   

Curveball	MPH	Usage	Zone	WHIFF	Batted Ball Outs %
2007	80.0	17.4%	51.4%	.348	60.0%
2008	80.6	10.1%	57.7%	.167	71.4%

 

Outside of his fastball, Guerrier implements a tight 12-to-6 curveball that is spun at a significantly slower rate, giving him an good off-speed breaking ball.  Averaging around a 12-mph difference in his two most used pitches, his curveball in 2007 was a very effective out-pitch, reflected in his .348 WHIFF rate.  This past season, Guerrier's use of his curveball was curtailed - most likely in response to being unable to find the strike zone with the fastball to properly set up the pitch - and with it his ability to induce misses dropped to .167.  That fact aside, the curveball was equally effective in that he was able to retire 71% of batters that put the pitch into play - a large boost from 2007. 

 

Slider	MPH	Usage	Zone	WHIFF	Batted Ball Outs %
2007	86.3	21.7%	67.8%	.364	60.0%
2008	86.6	20.9%	69.0%	.423	71.7%

 

To those that watch the Twins telecasts on FSN North, you would recall how much emphasis is placed on Guerrier's curveball.  Frequently overlooked by analysts, however, is the fact that Matt Guerrier's best pitch is his slider.  With a .423 WHIFF, his slider has one of the highest WHIFFs among the Twins' staff.  What makes this pitch exceedingly better is that he saves his deployment of the pitch for his right-handed counterparts.  The down-and-away spin action obtained numerous empty swings. 

For Guerrier to improve in 2009 he will have to refine the command of his fastball.  Being able to locate the fastball for a strike will do two things, (1) it will increase the amount of chases in Guerrier’s curveball from both sides of the plate and (2) it will cut down the number of total pitches leading to a more productive second-half. The success of his curveball, his secondary pitch against lefties, is directly correlated with his ability to throw the fastball for a strike consistently.  According to billjamesonline.net, in 2008 Guerrier relied on his fastball against the lefties (62% usage) and had a lowly 16-to-15 K-to-BB ratio.  Limited to two pitches against his left-handed counterparts, those opponents were able to coax walks and sit on hanging curveballs without having to answer to a 93-mph fastball cutting the plate in half at the knees. 

 

Another often cited explanation for Guerrier’s late season breakdown is that he has had a burdening workload in the past several years.  Though his appearances have risen steadily over the past four seasons, his increase has actually been a byproduct of his own doing.  In 2005 Guerrier faced 306 batters and used 1,094 pitches (3.58 per PA).  In 2006 Guerrier’s appearances decreased from 43 to 39 while his total batters faced actually decreased to 300 but used roughly the same amount of pitches (1,071 or 3.57 per PA).  With a depleted bullpen, Guerrier was asked to step up his use from 39 to 73 in 2007 but ultimately faced just 51 more batters -- a 17% increase to his prior workload –- and Guerrier needed approximately 3.69 pitches each plate appearance and threw 1,296 total.  This past season Guerrier needed a whopping 1,320 pitches against a pool of 344 leading to a grossly inefficient 3.83 pitches per plate appearances during his 76 outings.  By establishing his fastball consistently Guerrier would shave several pitches off each plate appearance and whittle down the total amount leading to late season success. 

Over The Baggy's Bill Smith Report Card - 2008

lam1.) Granted FA to Torii Hunter - 10/29/07

 

To Angels	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Torii Hunter	11
To Twins
Carlos Gutierrez		?
Shooter Hunt		?

 

Net WSAB: -11.

Nuts-n-Bolts: The decision to not pursue Torii Hunter down the free agent rabbit hole was a wise choice by Smith considering how stratospheric his market value increased in his walk year.  At 31 years old, Hunter had his second best season offensively (OPS+ 122) making him and his historically solid defense a desired commodity.  The day before Thanksgiving Arturo Moreno, owner of the Los Angeles Angels, signed Hunter to a five-year, $90 million dollar contract.  Because of his accelerated age, Hunter projects to decline over the course of the next few seasons (both Bill James and Marcels projections assume that he will have a drop in OBP and lose some power in 2009).  What's more is that even the defense that had made him so valuable is inevitably going to drop to levels that will force him to a corner outfield or designated hitter role, therefore by year four or even possibly year three of his contract Hunter will be supplying less than league average production at a substantial cost to the Angels. 

    

 

Grade: B.  Letting Hunter walk was the only option.  His contractual demands far exceed his projected contributions (year one looks decent in retrospect but the subsquent years will not look as favorable).  Since Hunter was labeled a Type A free agent the Twins were granted two compensatory draft picks.  With these, the team selected college pitchers Carlos Gutierrez and Shooter Hunt.  Gutierrez, a University of Miami alum, is already a survivor of Tommy John surgery so the Twins will probably use the kid's gloves with his development.  He spent 2008 in A+ Fort Myers where he worked from out of the bullpen, working 25 innings with a 2.71 K/BB.  A three-pitch pitchers, the Twins are going to use Gutierrez as a starter in 2009.  Hunt, a Tulane University alum, was initially sent to Elizabethton (rk) where he dominated much younger competition.  A shift to the more age appropriate Midwest League brought Hunt's numbers to reality.  While with Beloit, Hunt threw 31 innings as a starter and saw his control dissipate as he issued 27 walks. The only question is whether the two compensation picks pan out.

 

2.) Granted FA to Carlos Silva - 10/29/07

   

To Twins	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Carlos Silva	-6

Net WSAB: 6.

Nuts-n-Bolts: Carlos Silva is as utilitarian of a pitcher as they come by.  In his Twins career, he posted a 47-45 record and flirted with 200 innings each of the four seasons in Minnesota.  He didn't walk anybody nor did he strikeout that many either.  This power sinker pitcher threw to contact and blossomed from the usually solid defense placed behind him and when he doesn't have it, his numbers suffer.  His year with his highest ERA, 5.94, was the same year Tony Batista and Juan Castro roamed the left side of the infield. 

    As his contract was about to expire after the 2007 season, Bill Smith stood pat as Silva was valued as one of the top free agent pitchers on the market.  To his agent's credit, Silva was able to milk four-years, $48 million out of Seattle while the Twins waved bu-bye. 

 

Grade: A.  Silva's first season in Seattle was disastrous.  The Chief went 4-15 with a 6.46 ERA in 28 starts but is better than those numbers show considering behind him was a defense with the second lowest DER in the American League (.679).  Silva will most likely rebound in 2009 to produce decent numbers but no resigning him saved the Twins $48 million for labor that was available internally.  The Twins slotted Nick Blackburn into Silva's former spot in the rotation and was a very similar pitcher to Silva in that he threw to contact and was stingy with the walks.   Blackburn, however, gave the Twins 5 WSAB while finishing 11-11 with a league-average ERA of 4.05 thanks to a sturdy defense (.688 DER). 

 

3.) Craig Monroe for a Player To Be Named Later - 11/13/07

   

To Cubs	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
PTBNL	?
To Twins
Craig Monroe		1

 

Net WSAB: 1.

 

Nuts-n-Bolts: Recognizing the fact that a) Torii Hunter was not going to be with the team in 2008 and b) the team posted low numbers against left-handed pitching in 2007, Smith went to work attempting to find an inexpensive right-handed replacement.  The search ended with the Twins trading a Player To Be Named Later to the Cubs for Craig Monroe in November and on December 11th, the Twins signed Monroe to a one-year, $3.82 million contract with performance bonuses totaling $180,000.  The expectation was that Monroe would give the Twins a potent bat against lefties as a designated hitter and fourth outfielder. 

    Monroe - who showed a moderate level of success against lefties split between the Tigers and the Cubs in 2007 hitting .271/.309/.496 in 140 plate appearances - had a fairly average career track record against lefties. 

 

Grade: C.  Assuming that at 31 years old Monroe was going to provide production at levels he never was capable of achieving in the first place was foolish but the drop off in production was amazing.  He finished 2008 hitting only .138/.219/.230 in 96 plate appearances against the wrong-handers.  Admittedly, Monroe slugged six home runs in just 76 at-bats (a HR every 7.8 at bats) and slugged .605 but, for the most part, stole at-bats and playing time from Jason Kubel. 

 

4.)  Garza-Bartlett-Morlan for Young-Harris-Pridie - 11/28/07

To Rays	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Matt Garza	8
Jason Bartlett	4
Eduardo Morlan	?
To Twins
Delmon Young		2
Brendan Harris		2
Jason Pridie		?

Net WSAB: -8.

Nuts-n-Bolts: The Twins were looking to deal for a right-handed power bat that could supplant Torii Hunter in the lineup.  The Rays were looking for young pitching and a legitimate shortstop to shore up the infield.  With an initial deal of Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Juan Rincon the Rays were almost ready to part with Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and Jason Pridie - but it took the inclusion of Eduardo Morlan (a recent Brewers Rule 5 selection) to complete this deal. 

 

Grade: B-.  Yes, the trade may have ultimately cost the Twins the 2008 AL Central as they seemed to be one starting pitcher short, but Young has too much potential and some years to hone in on his plate approach to dismiss this as a lop-sided trade.  Yes, the Rays are the short-term victor but Smith probably positioned his team well to benefit from this exchange in years to come. 
 
5.) Signed FA Adam Everett - 12/13/07

   

To Twins	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Adam Everett		1

Net WSAB: 1.

Nuts-n-Bolts: Losing their starting shortstop without any obvious internal candidates on hand, Smith turned to the open market.  Available were low-grade options in Cesar Izturis, Neifi Perez and Jerry Hairston as well as diminutive shortstops in Adam Everett and David Eckstein.  Valuing defense, the Twins targeted Everett, who was the highest rated shortstop according to the Fielding Bible +/- as recently as 2006, and signed him to a one-year, $2.4 million contract. 

 

Grade: C.  With a .248/.299/.357 career batting line, the Twins held no pretensions that they were acquiring an offense-oriented shortstop.  Various ailments, however, kept Everett out of the lineup and limited to 48 games all year.  In hindsight, the Cardinals signed Cesar Izturis for $50,000 more than Everett and he played in 135 games and was the fourth-best defensive shortstop (+14) and hit .263/.319/.309.

6.) Signed FA Mike Lamb - 12/14/07 

 

To Twins	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Mike Lamb		0

Net WSAB: 0.

Nuts-n-Bolts: Like every offseason since losing Corey Koskie, the Twins were in the market for a third baseman.  In 2007, the combination of third basemen at the Metrodome hit a collective .236/.308/.323.  The Twins had an apparent interest in Lamb for years, drafting him in 1996, and finally signed the 31 year old to a two-year, $6.6 million hoping he could recreate his 2007's .289/.366/.453 batting line. 

 

Grade: D.  It is not just the lowly .231/.268/.312 batting line that was even worse than the output of the Twins third baseman in 2007, but rather it was the massive failure by the scouting department that overvalued Lamb and extended him the nearly $7 million dollar contract.  Admittedly it would be hard to predict a collapse of this magnitude, nevertheless, the Twins are still obligated to pay $2.6 in 2009 to Lamb. 

7.)  Santana for Gomez-Humber-Mulvey-Guerra - 2/2/08

To Mets	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Johan Santana	16
To Twins
Carlos Gomez		1
Philip Humber		0
Kevin Mulvey		?
Deolis Guerra		?

Net WSAB: -15.

Nuts-n-Bolts:  After going 93-44 with a 3.22 ERA, 1,381 strikeouts, only one stint on the disabled list and two Cy Youngs adorning his mantle, it was evident that Johan Santana was due for a raise at the expiration of his current contract following the 2008 season.  The problem was was that Santana was expecting Barry Zito-type money (seven-years, $126 million).  When the Venezuelan spurned Smith's offering of four-years, $80 million, Smith began shopping him around to the teams that have that kind of money to burn - the New Yorks, Los Angeles and Boston.  

    The Red Sox and the Yankees showed interest but in the end their offers were more like calculated stalemate propositions of a Cold War, pushing it to the brink but hoping the other would back down as well.  Only the Mets presented a package that contained the prospects that could satisfy the Twins: A replacement for Hunter and three potentially useful pitchers.  The Mets then inked Santana to a record-setting contract of $137.5 million over six years, besting Zito's average annual value of $18 million by $4.9 million per season. 

 

Grade: B-.  The group acquired in return for Santana is good.  Gomez had a muddling year at the plate (.258/.296/.360) but excelled in the field (+32 center fielder, best in baseball).  Humber should contribute in 2009 in the bullpen.  Mulvey is interesting in that he threw 148 innings at AAA and posted a very good 121/48 K/BB ratio with a 3.77 ERA (well below the league average of 4.10).  The 19 year old Guerra's performance is concerning - in 130 innings at A+, he struck out 71 and also walked 71, posting an ERA of 5.47.  This is a solid bounty.  What drops this grade is the possibility of what 2008 would have been like had Santana played out his contract with the Twins. 

 

8.) Signed FA Livan Hernandez - 2/12/08

   

To Twins	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Livan Hernandez		-1

Net WSAB: -1.

Nuts-n-Bolts: The Twins had lost three members of the starting rotation following the Santana trade leaving the five-man without any real established pitchers.  With Francisco Liriano not necessarily ready at Opening Day and unproven starters in Baker, Bonser, Blackburn, Slowey and Perkins, the Twins went fishing in the veteran well.  Hernandez, 33, while with the Diamondbacks in 2007 finished the year with an 11-11 and a 4.03 ERA and devoured over 200 innings.  Bill Smith signed him to a $5 million, one-year contract (with $2 million in incentives) to front the 2008 rotation.

 

Grade: C-.  At the time of the signing, I wrote "200+ innings is great, only if they are not laden with runs surrendered. As Hernandez’s 2007 home run total (34, 2^nd in the NL), earned runs (114, 4th) and hits allowed (247, 1^st) would suggest, he is a potential liability in the designated hitter American League."  At the conclusion of the 2008 season, Hernandez led all of baseball in hits allowed (257, 1st) and earned runs (121, 1st).  And he didn't even get to 200 innings.   

 

9.) Claimed Craig Breslow - 5/29/08

   

To Twins	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Craig Breslow		2

Net WSAB: 2.

Nuts-n-Bolts: With a weak bullpen due to Pat Neshek's season ending injury, the Twins were desperate for, well, relief.  Breslow had been given just 8.3 innings with the Cleveland Indians in 2008 while allowing three runs.  The lefty had posted very good minor league numbers, throwing 357 innings over six season and striking out 383, so the Twins took a minimal risk in claiming Breslow off of the waivers.  

 

Grade: A-.  Breslow quickly became a integral component in the bullpen, pitching 38.2 innings and posting a 1.83 ERA.  Left-handed opponents hit just .183/.230/.232 in 88 plate appearances, helping alleviate the necessity to overuse Dennys Reyes.  In the month of September, Breslow was awesome, throwing nine innings and allowed just one inherited run to score out of 15.  This claim reaffirms the fact that the Twins staff is very knowledgeable when it comes to other team's organizational talent. 

 

10.) Traded for Eddie Guardado - 8/25/08

 

To Rangers	WSAB Lost	WSAB Gained
Mark Hamburger	?
To Twins
Eddie Guardado		-1

 

Net WSAB: -1.

Nuts-n-Bolts: When the trade deadline past in July without any transactions for relief support and a bullpen that held a 5.21 ERA for the month, the Twins seemed to paint themselves into a corner. Chad Bradford and Latroy Hawkins slipped through their fingers but the 37 year old Eddie Guardado was having a surprisingly good season for the Rangers.  Texas was 63-68, looking upwards of 17 games to the division leading Angels, and acted like any bankrupt company trying to liquidate any non-useful parts and Eddie Guardado qualified as such.  Guardado had increased in value by throwing in over 55 games in relief, posting a 3.65 ERA and limiting opponents to a .220/.286/.358 batting line.  The Twins, familiar with Everyday Eddie, sent a 21 year old pitcher, Mark Hamburger, who had thrown 36.2 innings in the Appalachian League while striking out 40 and walking just 13. 

 

Grade: D-.  Guardado provided the Twins with seven lackluster innings, allowing six runs and an opponent batting line of .387/.424/.581 in that span.  The grade is based on the fact that several other viable options were overlooked (Bradford, Hawkins, Mijares) before settling on Guardado. In the grand scheme of things, the move was a minimal risk as Hamburger will not result in John Smoltz down the road. 

 

 

Final Net WSAB: -20

 

Overall Grade: C+.  Smith continued what has been protocol set by Terry Ryan.  Once again, Smith and his team signed free agents that didn't perform, including Hernandez, Everett and Lamb.  Add those names to the long list created by Ryan.  The front office has been great at developing internal talent and harvesting talent from other teams but they can never seem to hit on the free agents that produce.  The latter two ideas will ensure that the Twins remain a competitive ballclub.  It is the former, signing one or two free agents that contribute immensely, that helps procure championships.  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Friday Flotsam (12.19.08)

• Among the recent minor league free agent signings, La Velle notes that the Twins have resigned Joe Gaetti.  After being drafted by Colorado and putting up solid numbers in the notoriously pitcher-friendly Sally League, hitting .257/.353/.457 with 16 home runs.  The following season, in 2004, he was moved to the California League, a league that swings to the opposite extreme of the Sally League.   While there, the 22 year old Gaetti hit .332/.418/.602 with 21 home runs.  Gaetti continued to climb the ranks, but as a corner outfielder/designated hitter type in the Rockies organization, G-Man Junior was block by two All Star candidates in Brad Hawpe and Matt Holliday.  Prior to the 2008 season, Oakland signed him as a minor league free agent and was sent to AA.  After 24 games for Midland, the A's sent Gaetti to Sacramento where he homered in his first at-bat with the River Cats, reaffirming his power potential.  Oakland, like Colorado, had a glutton of corner outfield types in Chris Denorfia and Matt Murton in AAA with Ryan Sweeney, Travis Buck and Jack Cust in the bigs. The Twins acquired Gaetti from the Oakland organization - a team that knows a thing or two about power and patience - in August 2008 for future considerations and assigned him to AA New Britain where he, like in Sacramento his first at-bat, homered in his first at-bat then proceeded to tear his Achilles rounding the bases.   Gaetti has proven that he can hit minor league pitching to the point where he deserves a roster spot on a team.  Especially left-handed pitching.  In 419 career minor league at-bats against southpaws, Gaetti had hit .315/.401/.556.   By comparison, Randy Ruiz has hit .300/.375/.537 in 536 lifetime minor league at-bats versus lefties.  While I was initially disappointed that the Twins failed to secure Ruiz, who was signed by the Blue Jays, they may have kept a more useful component in that Gaetti has shown that he can play a serviceable part in the outfield and not be limited to a designated hitter.  Frankly, the Twins, like the Rockies and A's, have an overabundance of corner outfielders, but keeping Gaetti around will give the Twins a player that might be called upon if another right-handed power bat is needed.  Also, he does a mean impression of his dad.

 

• There are times when I really like Fox Sports' Dayn Perry.  His book "Winner: How Good Baseball Teams Become Great Ones" is a must read and his articles in "Baseball Between the Numbers" by Baseball Prospectus is equally as insightful HOWEVER, his latest column on FoxSports.com falls far short of the bar set by the previous high-quality analysis and, frankly, lackadaisical reporting.  His article outlines several non-events that transpired during the Winter Meetings and their implications, such as the Padres not moving Jake Peavy and the Yankees not upgrading their offense.  His last paragraph is poignantly directed at our hometown organization entitled "Twins Still Don't Have A Third Baseman".  Perry notes that the Twins showed interest in Adrian Beltre ($12 million in 2009 plus a recent no-trade clause adding the amount necessary to acquire and the Mariners request of Kevin Slowey in return), Kevin Kouzmanoff (Gardy no likey the no defense), Jorge Cantu (see Kouzmanoff) and Ty Wigginton (see Cantu) then punctuated the necessity to make a move by saying "the Twins ranked 11th in the American League in OPS and this was the primary reasons they missed out on the postseason".  The conclusion Perry draws is that the Twins are putting themselves in a detrimental position by not obtaining another third baseman.  Yes, between opening day and June 14th when Mike Lamb was the starting third baseman and he hit a horrid .225/.264/.304 (.568 OPS) in 212 plate appearances, the Twins suffered.  Following June 14th, Ron Gardenhire opted to use a platoon of Brendan Harris and Brian Buscher who in 484 plate appearances after the transition combined to hit .294/.346/.436 (.782 OPS).  What Perry fails to mention when he quickly dismisses Buscher as not the long-term solution (omitting Harris altogether) and deemed Beltre's "thump and stellar defense" as the logical solution to the third base woes was that Beltre's 2008 .783 OPS was no better than the Twins duo.  From a strictly operational vantage point, why would a mid-market team bother trading (yet again) a young, up-and-coming pitcher for the one-year loan of a third baseman that has similar productions of a low-cost tandem that stands to make $11 million less?   

 

• Speaking of overpriced third basemen, Joe Christensen recently took a closer inspection at Ty Wigginton's numbers while with the Astros in 2008. What has been highlighted the most when dissecting his undoubtedly inflated final line of .285/.350/.526 with 23 home runs was that at home in Minute Maid Park, a hitting haven, he hit .343/.390/.691 with 15 home runs and 58 RBIs.  In addition to this factor skewing his overall statistics, it should be noted that Wigginton's ridiculous performance in August also pushed those numbers higher than they will be in 2009.  In 109 plate appearances in August, Wigginton hit an unworldly .379/.394/.806 with 12 home runs and 26 RBIs.  To summarize, more than half of his home runs and RBIs occurred in one month.  This, coupled with the numbers procured at the offensive generator in Houston, indicates that Wigginton's numbers will decline in 2009.  The Astros recognized this and decided that Wigginton was not worth the near $6 million a year he will command.  Instead, the franchise will use the switch hitting Geoff Blum and the right-handed Aaron Boone to field a low wage platoon at third.  Hopefully the Twins will also reach this conclusion. 

 

• Finally, Seth Stohs' 2008 Minnesota Twins Prospect Handbook - a book that was reviewed in this space in November - now has two versions for sale, a paperback and a paperless for those eco-friendly readers.  The PDF version costs $8 - saving you $3 dollars (a great value for the college students out there on a tight budget) - and contains the same information on the entire Twins farm system in the paperback edition without those scary papercuts to worry about.  

 

 

 

 

Over The Baggy's Twins Draft Review 2008

With the changing of the General Manager's from Ryan to Smith and Mike Radcliff handing off the draft day responsibilities to former crosschecker Deron Johnson, it is evident that the Twins sustained the philosophy behind their approach to the draft.  The organization focused on upside and projectability. 

 

As you will see in the instance of Shooter Hunt, the team selected a pitcher that had plus-stuff but had rough edges in the control department.  Confident they had the necessary tools in place to teach Hunt control, they made him a first round (supplement) pick.  In similar fashion, the Twins chose shortstop Tyler Ladendorf in the second round.  Ladendorf had produced well in high school and junior college but some scouts believed his weight distribution presented a problem in his hitting approach.  The Twins however, felt they had the instructors on staff to fix this.     

 

The scouting staff would also uncover several players that were overlooked because of their competition.  Both the ninth (Gonzales) and tenth (Bigley) round selections were cultivated out of league's that were undervalued.  But as complete of coverage as the team's scouting department seemed to display, ranging from coast-to-coast, there was a large amount of the players that were either in college near the Midwest or had played in the local Northwoods League,making one wonder what exactly is the travel budget for the scouts?

 

At the conclusion of their first professional season, you will find that the 2008 draft team were successful in signing players up and down the board that will ensure that the farm system remains an envy of Major League Baseball.   

 

Round.Pick | Player | Signing Bonus | Age | Position 

 

R37.1116 | Javier Ogo-Brown | NA | 21 years old | INF

 

The Twins selected Ogo-Brown out of Grossmont Junior College and was assigned to the Gulf Coast League affiliate.  This son of Guam had a muddling introduction to professional baseball as he started his career 11-for-47 (.234) with no extra base hits and a 6/14 BB/K ratio.  He carries 175 pounds on his six foot frame so there is room for him to grow physically. This offseason Ogo-Brown will take his development over to Australia where he will play for West Torrens baseball club in the South Australian Baseball League - the Twins have several players participating within this league including catchers Danny Rohlfing and Fred Hanvi as well as Korean imports Hyoeng-Rok Choi and Hyung-wook Choi. 

 

R30.906 | Mike Tonkin | $230K | 18 years old | RHRP

 

The large statured Tonkin (6-foot-7, 215) from Palmdale, CA is a brother-in-law of Jason Kubel and was sent to the GCL Twins for his inaugural minor league season.  The Twins threw $230,000 at Tonkin as a signing bonus, a hefty sum for a 30th round pick, because he was already clocked at low-90s in high school.  The organization likes his projectability to say the least.  In his first professional season, pitching mostly in relief, Tonkin worked 11 innings and struck out 8 while walking 3.  His 3.27 ERA was 15% better than the league average but with such a small sample size it is impossible to project Tonkin's true abilities. 

 

R28.846 | Nate Hanson | $25K | 21 years old | 3B

Hanson caught attention by leading the 2007 Northwoods League with a .363 average and obtaining that league's All Star game MVP while playing for the Mankato Moon Dogs and he followed this up with a good collegiate season with the University of Minnesota (.966).  Given a $25,000 signing bonus (just $205,000 less than the Tonkin drafted a round after him), the 21-year-old Hanson was sent to Elizabethton where he opened up the first month of the season strong, hitting .308/.550/.615 in his first 15 at-bats but a July swoon (.129/.182/.161 in 31 at-bats) tanked his overall numbers.  Because he is a third baseman that has shown power, the Twins will give him time to learn on the job.

 

R26.786 | Adam Severino | NA| 21 years old | OF

 

This juco transfer was given a substantial amount of playing time in the University of Miami's outfield in 2008 and hit .325/.433/.469 in 160 at-bats.  Somewhat undersized (5-foot-11, 200), the Chicago White Sox initially attempted to draft the left-handed hitting Severino in 2006.  In 123 plate appearances with Elizabethton, Severino exercised very good plate discipline (18 walks, .366 OBP) but didn't supply power. 

 

R21.636 | Steve Blevins | NA | 21 years old | RHRP

Blevins had a rough 2007 while at the University of Cincinnati.  The Bearcats finishes 10-16 and Blevins was tied for the most losses in the Big East Conference with seven.  Following the NCAA season, the 6-foot-2 left-handed Blevins transferred to Marshall in West Virginia, a school that had gone 5-18 the previous year.  The idea was that the competition was much stronger in Conference USA which contained powerhouses like Rice, Houston and Tulane.  Blevins, for his part, went 9-3 in 14 starts with a 4.41 ERA and 78/31 K/BB ratio in 98 innings pitched while leading the conference in complete games (3).  The Twins noticed and drafted him in the 21st round and sent him to the Gulf Coast League to work out of the bullpen.  Blevin threw nine total innings in Florida before being promoted to the Appalachian League.  In 22.2 innings in relief, Blevins would accumulate an ERA of over 6 but his fielding independent number of 4.68 indicates that he is much better that the ERA would suggest. 

 

R19.576 | Bruce Pugh | NA | 19 years old | RHRP

 

The 6-foot-3, 180 pound Pugh was directed to the Gulf Coast League for his minor league introduction which resulted in two extremely different months.   In June, Pugh pitched 14 innings and struck out 24% of batters faced and walked just 8% while inducing groundballs 57% of the time.  The following month, Pugh struck out 20% but walked 20% as well and only got 33% of batters to hit into groundballs.  There is no need to read too far into this, just a curiosity. 
 

R17.516 | Blake Martin | NA | 22 years old | LHRP

 

A product of the LSU baseball system, Martin emerged as a bona fide prospect after a 2007 stint in the Northwoods League.  Following his 39 innings and 32 strikeouts, Baseball America ranked him the 9th overall player in the league noting that he had a 90+ fastball with loose arm action.  John Manuel noted in a BA chat that he believed Martin was headed for a single-digit draft pick.  After starting the year in Elizabethton, Martin was quickly moved to the more age-appropriate Midwest League.  While with Beloit Martin threw 28.1 innings and struck out 40 while walking just 13.  Martin will turn 23 in the middle of next season so the Twins may want to expedite his development and to see if the numbers sustain in AA.
 

R14.426 | Blayne Weller | NA | 18 years old | RHRP

The high school draft choice out of Key West, FL, Weller was originally sent to the GCL Twins where he pitched just one inning of one game before moving back to the Instructional League.  La Velle E Neal reported that the Twins where extremely satisfied with Weller's progress.  Weller is a man-child (listed at 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds) and will probably see innings in rookie ball to open 2009. 

 

R13.396 | Michael Harrington | NA | 22 years old | OF

 

Harrington displayed tons of power in his final year at College of Charleston, slamming 26 home runs and leading the Southern Conference in that category.  He continued this surge in Elizabethon hitting nine more home runs while his slugging percentage (.452) was 16% better than the league average.  Because Harrington is over two years older than most of his competition in the Appalachian League he may have been overpowering the raw pitchers. 

 

R12.366 | Kyle Carr | $50K | 21 years old | LHRP

 

Another University of Minnesota alum, the Twins originally attempted to obtain Carr during the 2005 draft when graduated from Linton, North Dakota as a multisport athletic going to state in both football and basketball.  Instead the 6-foot-5 lefty opted take his skillset to college.  During his sophomore season Carr was one named Second Team Big Ten Reliever closing games for the Gophers. The lefty faced a difficult season in his final year in the Big Ten transitioning to a starter, finishing 2-7 in 13 starts with a 1.71 WHIP.  The Twins signed Carr with a $50,000 bonus and he was sent to the Gulf Coast League.  After three appearance, Carr was sent to Elizabethton where he made 11 relief appearances, putting up a 10.80 Runs Allowed Average in 15 innings of work.  He possesses a 90-mph plus fastball that projects well. 

 

 

R11.336 | Dominic De La Osa  | NA | 22 years old | 2B

 

De La Osa played on a very solid Vanderbilt teams that contained Tampa Bay's elite pitching prospect David Price, who was the #1 overall draft pick in 2007, and Pedro Alvarez in 2008, who was this draft's #2 overall pick by Pittsburgh.  After a monster 2007 season at Vandy in which De La Osa hit .378/.452/.727 with 43 extra base hits in 249 at bats, the Detroit Tigers select him in the 10th round of the 2007 draft offering him $300,000.  De La Osa declined, stating that he wanted to return one more season in efforts to get to Omaha for the College World Series. PGCrosschecker.com rated De La Osa as the team's Best Athlete and Best Base Runner on the team.  The Commodores fell short of a trip to Nebraska and De La Osa's stock declined somewhat when in the same number of at bats in 2008, he hit .297/.410/.506 with 24 extra base hits.  Undervalued during the draft, sliding to the Twins in the 11th round of the 2008 draft, the organization had him report to Elizabethton.  While his overall numbers don't appear sturdy, he sandwich two good months of hitting .899 and .815 OPS with a horrid month of July hitting just .715.  Even with the absence of power (.394 slugging) De La Osa finished with very good on-base percentage (.384).  Once the power fully develops, De La Osa has the potential to be a steal for the Twins. 

 

R10.306 | Evan Bigley  | $75K | 21 years old | OF

 

Bigley comes from baseball pedigree as his older brother, Dennis, paved the way for the Bigley boys by getting drafted by the Blue Jays in the 22nd round of the 2003 draft.  The younger Bigley shot onto the scene along with his Independent alma mater, Dallas Baptist, who defeated Rice twice.  Refining his talents in the Northwoods League for the La Crosse Loggers, Bigley powered the Patriots his senior season with a .586 slugging percentage, catching the Twins' attention.  The organization assigned him to Elizabethon and he continued to swat, hitting 14 home runs and slugging .587 - significantly better than the league average of .387.  Bigley's power will carry him through the next few levels at which point he will have to develop better plate discipline in order to advance further. 

R09.276 | Mike Gonzales | $85K | 20 years old | 1B

 

Playing for Diablo Valley Junior College, Gonzales ripped through the league's pitching and wound up being named the league's best player.  The 6-foot-6 Gonzales smashed 18 home runs and hit .377 to earn the honors and a ninth round draft selection from the Twins.  With a solid 245 pounds on the big frame, Gonzales had a decent introductory season in the Gulf Coast League.  Though overshadowed by the first round draft pick Aaron Hicks who grabbed headlines on the GCL Twins, Gonzales quietly hit .331/.387/.489, well above the GCL average of .253/.331/.356.

R08.246 | Jeff Lanning  | $105K | 21 years old | C

 

After transferring from the University of Nebraska to the University of New Orleans, the Ankeny, Iowa native Lanning emerged as a legitimate offensive catcher leading the Privateers with 15 home runs and slugging .627.  The Twins secured Lanning in the eighth round with a $105,000 signing bonus and moved him to Elizabethton, where he competed with 2007's second round draft choice, Danny Rams, behind the plate.  Ultimately, Rams would catch more games but Lanning would posted better offensive numbers (.786 OPS to .724 OPS).  Defensively, Lanning has a below-average arm, allowing 13 of 16 (18.7% CS) potential base stealers to acquire the base, but he appears to be a better backstop allowing just 2 passed balls to Rams's 11. 

 

R07.216 | Dan Osterbrock  | $121K | 21 years old | LHSP

 

Osterbrock, who signed for $121,000, drew plenty of attention from Twins fans by throwing a Kevin Slowey-like 104/8 K/BB rate in just 75 innings to earn the title of Appalachian League Pitcher of the Year.  What is surprising is that his first-year numbers far exceed those of his collegiate numbers that he had while pitching at the University of Cincinnati.  In 193.1 innings the previous two seasons with the Bearcats, Osterbrock struck out 156.  One would like to assume that the Appalachian League is better competition than the Big East, but who knows.  Whether instructors in the Twins organization insisted on doing something different is unbeknowst to me.  A soft tosser, Osterbrock shows demonstrates outstanding command and will most likely move up to Beloit to see if his craftiness will work on the next level of hitters in 2009. 

R06.186 | BJ Hermsen| $650K | 19 years old | RHP

 

After being drafted in June, it took West Delware (Manchester, IA) High School graduate and the Twins until August to finally hammer out a workable contract.  The two landed on $650,000 as a signing bonus and for good reason.  The 6=foot-6, 230 pound Hermsen who had been clocked in the low-90s was interested in attending Oregon State.  OSU's Baseball coach Pat Casey was quoted as saying that Hermsen was "the only right-handed pitcher we that [OSU] ever recruited," continuing, "He's ranked as one of the top pitchers in the country."  Because of the late signing, Hermsen was sent to the Instructional League where Twins officials lauded his work habits and makeup.  The 2009 season will be his debut. 

 

R05.156 | Nick Romero | $179K | 20 years old | INF

 

The switch-hitting Romero was originally drafted by the Royals in the 40th round of the 2006 draft but he decided to go to San Deigo State University and play for Tony Gwynn instead.  Like Bigley, Romero played with the La Crosse Loggers in the Northwoods League, and like Bigley, Romero developed at the plate.  Over the course of the next three seasons, Romero progressed, culminating in his junior year by hitting .335/.418/.544 and leading the team with 12 home runs.  The Twins signed Romero for $179,000 and assigned him to Elizabethton where he hit .274/.338/.442 with 7 home runs in 197 at bats. 

 

R04.126 | Danny Ortiz | $253K | 18 years old | OF

 

Small in size (5-foot-11, 166 pounds), scouts have noted that Ortiz is one of the best pure hitters to come out of Puerto Rico in several years, claiming that he has an above average arm and can field all three outfield positions.  Because of that, it took $253,000 to secure the youngster.  In 48 games for the GCL Twins Ortiz hit .274/.328/.419 with 18 extra base hits and a 11/30 BB/K ratio.  Ortiz showed holes in his swing against left-handed pitching (.231/.286/.256 in 39 at bats) that will have to be repaired before he begins ascending to higher levels.  Thankfully, at 18, he has nothing but time.

R03.96 | Bobby Lanigan | $417K | 21 years old | RHSP

 

Lanigan, a Stanton Island native, accepted a $417,000 signing bonus making him the first Adelphi University player to be drafted and signed in 15 years.  Although Lanigan only went 4-4 his final seasons with the Panthers, he struck out 87 and walked just 16 in 79 innings and owns the school's all-time strikeout record (232).  In Baseball America's Draft Preview, they ranked Lanigan the 129th best prospect - probably because of playing at a Division II school - but had a 93-mph fastball and an above-average slider that attracted the Twins.  Reporting to Elizabethon, the 6-foot-4 Lanigan had a good season, pitching 74.1 innings with a 6-5 record and a 2.78 ERA combined with a 65/9 K/BB.  In August Lanigan threw 37 innings and posted a 30/1 K/BB ratio and a 2.28 FIP.  Scouts were very impressed with Lanigan's slider, deeming it the Best Slider in the organization according to Baseball America. 

 

R02.66 | Tyler Ladendorf  | $673K | 20 years old | SS

 

A former 34th round selection twice-over by the Yankees and Giants in 2006 and 2007, Ladendorf decided to forgo what were both high offers for the draft slot to attend and remain at Howard College in Big Springs, Texas.  Ladendorf was committed to attending the University of Oklahoma when his eligibility at the Texas JuCo expired but the Twins, using their 66th pick overall, convinced the 6-foot-1 Ladendorf to sign for $673,000 and assigned him to the GCL Twins.  Ladendorf's initial season was far from the expected results of a second-round draft choice: in 147 at bats, he hit just .204/.308/.293.  Ladendorf's numbers were the dividends of being stymied by right-handed pitching, hitting only .193/.295/.277 in 119 at bats.  The word is that the Twins are attempting to reconstruct Ladendorf's hitting style, one that prior to the draft was considered unorthodox because his weight was not distributed on his back foot evenly and because of his size, scouts believe that Ladendorf will eventually be forced out of the shortstop position. 

R01.31 | Shooter Hunt | 21 years old | $1.08 M | RHSP

 

Initially thought to be a top ten pick in the 2008 draft, Tulane's Shooter Hunt slid all the way to the Twins at the 31st pick overall.  According to Baseball America, scouts noted that Hunt often tried to "nibble" at corners of the plate and "pitched to contact" rather than attacking opposing batters.  Regardless of the method, the results were solid for Hunt who limited opponents to a .177 batting average and struck out 12 batters per game.  As the draft neared, his stock dropped because of his employment of only two pitches (92-94 mph fastball and a hammer curve) and the amount necessary to retire batters.  Still, it would be the Twins - an organization that is notorious for grooming control pitchers - that would land Hunt with a $1.08 million signing bonus.  The Twins would send Hunt to Elizabethton where Hunt would throw 19 dominating innings, striking out 34, walking six and allowing only surrendering three hits and one earned run.  Unchallenged at Rookie ball, the Twins moved him to Beloit where his control issues surfaced.  Though Hunt was essentially unhittable (.228), Hunt walked 27 in 32 innings in the Midwest League.  The Twins and Hunt are trying to work on his balance point and integrate the use of a changeup more frequently (one that was described as a "plus" in bullpen sessions).  Consistency is the name of the game for Hunt who should remain in Beloit to start the 2009 season to prove that he can throw his 94-mph fastball for a strike. 

 

R01.27 | Carlos Gutierrez | $1.29 M | 21 years old | RHSP

 

Following a solid career as a closer at the University of Miami, Gutierrez was the first pitcher taken by the Twins in the 2008 draft.  Gutierrez signed for a bonus of $1.29 million and reported to Fort Myers where he was initiated into professional baseball at the high-A level - the most advanced spotting within the organization among his draft class.  Positioned within the bullpen of the Florida State League representative, Gutierrez worked 25.2 innings with a 19/7 K/BB ratio.  In a league that is for players old then that of Gutierrez, he did not allowing a home run while holding a 2.50 Runs Allowed Average.  Though the sample size is minuscule, Gutierrez handled right-handed opponents significantly better than that of the left-handed counterparts (.160 vs RHB/.326 vs LHB).  Baseball America reports that Gutierrez has a Major League-ready sinking fastball that was elected as the best within the farm system, however, the Twins will attempt to convert him to a start in 2009 so he can work on his secondary pitches and accumulate more innings. 

R01.14 | Aaron Hicks | $1.78 M | 18 years old | OF

 

In a college-oriented draft plan devised by the Twins, the organization opened by selecting a high school player with five or possibly even six tools.  Hicks, who also pitched in high school, had a 93-mph fastball but it was his bat and fielding abilities that the Twins coveted.  The Twins allocated $1.7 million in signing their top selection and sent him to Elizabethton.  In 173 at bats, Hicks had 18 extra base hits and batted .318/.409/.491 a line slightly better than that of the previous year's first round pick, Ben Revere, who hit .325/.388/.461 in 191 at bats.  At 6-foot-2 and a slim 170 pounds, the scouting report believes Hicks will fill out that height as he matures adding power to a repertoire that already has patience (14% BB%).  With the conclusion of his first professional season under his belt, and a successful one at that, Baseball America ranked Hicks as the number one prospect within the Twins system and awarded him the titles of "Best Athlete", "Best Strike Zone Discipline", "Best Defensive Arm" and "Best Outfield Arm".  Hicks will receive a full season of plate appearance in 2009 at Beloit to continue his development - one that is seen as two years away from gracing Target Field.