Tough Stretch. 

    While the overall records of the Indians (72-77) and Rays (88-59) could not be more different at first blush, they actual share a common trait which is a winning record since August 1st, playing .595 and .625 ball, respectively.  Though Tampa's success has be more sustained as they posted a .589 winning percentage leading up to the month of August as the Erie Warriors nestled into a .439 winning percentage but both have been fundamentally sound as the calender slips into fall.  Since trimming some fat - notably 250 pounds of C.C. Sabathia - the Indians have gone 35 and 26, the fourth best record in the American League behind surging teams like the Los Angeles Angels, Toronto Blue Jays and Boston Red Sox.  The bottomline is that nobody, especially a team that has played muddling baseball since August 1st (21-19) and are attempting to overcome a 1.5 game deficit in the standings, wants to play either team right now.      

    Unfortunately for the Minnesota Twins, they have to play both...on the road.  So not only are the Twins facing two teams in back-to-back series that are 50-32 since August 1st but they are playing them in a location where they are 92-57 combined on the season.  To make matters worse the Indians and the Rays are trotting out starting pitching that are a 70-30.  These daunting numbers alone are enough to make the most strong-headed optimist wonder where the other half of his or her water went.  The scheduled starting pitching includes Cy Young front-runner Cliff Lee, who since his July 6th loss to the Twins at the Metrodome has gone 11-0 in 12 starts, throwing 91.2 innings with a 58/9 k/bb ratio adding a 2.27 era for good measure.  Once the Twins leave Cleveland they will be greeted by the Rays James Shields who since the All-Star break has gone 7-3 in his 13 starts, amassing 91.1 innings and dispatching 17% of his opponents via strikeout while walking just 4%.  After a brief reprise in dominate control artists the Twins face the erratic (10% bb%) yet hard-throwing (93.8 mph fastball) Edwin Jackson the Twins will be forced to solve many analysts preseason Cy Young candidate in Scott Kazmir who in his 8 starts since August 1st has gone 3-1 with a 3.32 era, opponents hitting just .196 off of him and nearly a quarter of them (24% k%) have heard the umpire bellow "strike three!" in 43.1 innings of work.  To cap off the four game series the Rays present Andy Sonnanstine who has also gone 3-1 in his 8 starts since August striking out 32 and walked only 7.   

    Higher up on the AL Central standings the Chicago White Sox are also accumulating the frequent flier miles.  How does the strength of their schedule compare to the Twins?  The New York Yankees have played .500 baseball since August 1st (20-20), which is a better result than the Pythagorean would argue since they have been outscored by -11.  If they are able to escape from New York with a split or better, the White Sox will be rewarded with a three game series in Kansas City against a team that has been tied for the forth worst record in baseball since August 1st (.385 winning percentage).  The probable pitchers that are expected to face the White Sox lineup have a combined record of 47-39 - but would be .500 if you were to subtract Mike Mussina's 17-9 record.  Following the series opening loss, the Yankees will use Andy Petitte who has been showing his age since August.  In his last 8 starts Petitte has gone 1-5 with a 5.55 era in 48.2 innings of work and opponents have hit .318/.365/.434.  Sandwiched between Petitte and Mussina, the Yankees have recalled phenom cum suspect Philip Hughes who experienced some growing pains in his minor league rehab stint, going 1-0 with a 5.90 era in six starts making it through the sixth inning just once.  In back to back starts against the LeHigh Valley Iron Pigs Hughes failed to clear the 4th inning and surrendered 13 earned runs in those 7 innings.  Though his final two starts showed signs of promise (12 innings, 15 strike outs, 10 hits, 3 earned runs) he will still be trying to find his "feel" on the mound against a playoff hungry team.  Once the team shifts to Middle America, the White Sox take on starting pitching that is 17-23.  This series commences with Brian Bannister on the mound.  Since August 1st Banny has made 8 starts going 1-6 in that span.  In those 43.1 innings, Bannister has had a 27/15 k/bb ratio as opponents have slugged 11 home runs and hit .305/.360/.593.   

    Yes, the White Sox-Twins series in the Metrodome next week should get top billing however it should be noted that these next 7 games are pivotal to the division race.  How the Twins play against the Indians and Rays could mean the difference between leapfrogging the White Sox in the standings entering the final series against the Kansas City Royals or watching the White Sox clinch on our turf. 

Minor Details: Rethinking the Farm System**

 

    This past off season, the Atlanta Braves announced plans to terminate their 42-year relationship with the city of Richmond, Virginia.  The plan is to relocate the Richmond affiliate 469 miles to the south making the distance to watching the Braves most major league ready prospects just a 45-minute drive away from Turner Field in Gwinnett County, Georgia starting in the 2009 season.  The Braves, who already have a class-A affiliate in Rome, Georgia, roughly 70 miles northwest of Atlanta, will have two of their farm clubs within a two-hour drive of their fan base.  Another National League East team, the Philadelphia Phillies, took the opportunity to shuffle the locale of their top affiliate prior to the 2007 season, moving the Ottawa Lynx from the neighbors to the north to a city that was immortalized on Billy Joel's The Nylon Curtain: Allentown, Pennsylvania.  Named after the region, Lehigh Valley, the team assumed the moniker IronPigs and situated themselves in a cozy new 8,100-seat Coca-Cola Park, an hour and a half drive away from the parent club.  This was a nice compliment to the existing Reading, Pennsylvania AA affiliate located an hour and fifteen minute drive southeast of Philadelphia.  In theory, a Phillies Phanatic can spend a weekend and just two hours and forty-five minutes in the car and watch three levels of Phillie talent.  On the opposite side of the Manifest Destiny, the Seattle Mariners have nursed a pair of 13-year relationships with both the AAA Tacoma Rainiers (33 miles south of Safeco Field) and the class-A Everett AquaSox (30.7 miles north of Safeco Field).  This proximity has encouraged local blog communities such as USSMariner and Lookout Landing to organize outings to get a first-hand inspection of the developing Mariner talent.   

    It is hard not to be envious of the aforementioned clubs for diehard baseball fans living in Twins Territory.  In comparison to a Braves fan who will be able to see prospects perform in Atlanta's northern suburbs starting next year, an ambitious Twins fan in Minneapolis or Saint Paul would have to drive nearly 17 hours to catch a glimpse of the team's future in Rochester, New York.  Notable Braves blogger (Sabernomics.com) and associate professor at Kennesaw State University, J.C. Bradbury, cited several economically positives regarding the geographical convenience of these farm clubs.  First, travel time for scouts and coaches to analyze a potential call-up is greatly reduced.  Secondly, once a player is needed due to injury or general promotion getting that player from point A to point B is cut down significantly.  In the case of the Braves, Phillies and Mariners, each have two of their clubs within an easy drive reducing the cost of shuffling players around.  Finally, but possibly the most important reason for the clustering of the ball clubs is that it would create a commitment to players by the fans region-wide.      

    Not long ago, hometown fans recieved brief snippets of information and reports on players down on the farm once a week through updates in the local paper, since the proliferation of the internet, however, minor league statistics have been readily available to every rube with a modem.  Now it appears that major league organizations are discovering the added benefit of allowing the average fan to visually see who were once just numbers flash the leather or bring out the whooping stick before their very eyes.  If every Twins draft pick spent a season in St. Cloud, Fargo or Mankato before ascending to the other levels, an investment of sorts would be made between the spectator and the organization and that spectator may be enticed to visit the new Twins stadium when the player was eventually promoted.  A relationship is created.      

   There are several barriers that would impede the Twins from easily replicating this system. Unlike the Atlanta Braves who own the Richmond Braves franchise, the Twins are only in a partnership with the majority of their farm teams (they own Elizabethton outright).  The Braves were able to move their club on a whim while the Twins in order to adjust their alignment, they would have to wait for one of the Player Development Contracts to expire and simultaneously find a community that would be accommodating to the immigrant club.  Secondly, the sparsely populated Midwest region limits the encroachment of almost all of the leagues (minus the Midwest League, of course) which are situated on the dense coasts.  The AA Eastern League's closest team to Minnesota is the Akron, Ohio Aeros, a 12-hour drive from the Twin Cities (but a 45-minute drive for Cleveland Indians fans to see their second highest farm club).  Therefore, relocating the New Britain Rock Cats to the similarly sized Duluth-Superior area would greatly increase the travel budget, completely negating the entire purpose of saving money if every road trip takes a minimum 12-hour bus ride.  Likewise, the International League, home of the Twins current AAA affiliate Rochester Red Wings, has a minimum 9 hour drive from Minnesota to the nearest competitor (Indianapolis Indians).  Obviously Des Moines would be a great city to host a Twins affiliate after all, it is just 3 hours and 40 minutes south on Interstate 35 and they have drawn 14,000 people to one game.  The problem, however, is that the Player Development Contract between the Iowa Cubs and the Chicago Cubs is signed through 2012.     

    The Twins do have one affiliate that would benefit from relocation.  In August 2007, the Twins and the Beloit Professional Baseball Association (BPBA), purveyors of the Snappers, agreed to a 2-year extension on their P.D.C. ensuring the partnership would last through the 2010 season.  The Snappers home ballpark, Harry Pohlman Field, seats just 3,501 in a league where most of the facilities have around 1,500 more seats per stadium, the 1981 constructed ballpark seems antiquated.  The Beloit ballpark has been renovated several times - adding box seats and other amenities - but lacks the revenue generators that flashier, newer ballparks have.  Recent attempts to get a new stadium built in nearby Janesville, Wisconsin have been thwarted.  Since the Beloit Snappers are community-owned (like the Green Bay Packers) the group selling their team appears to be an unlikely outcome so in order for a franchise to come to Minnesota an entrepreneur who have to purchase an existing team (the most recent Midwest League team sold for $6.2 million in 2006) and wait until the Twins' P.D.C. with the Beloit organization expired and then relocate that team to a community closer to the Twin Cities.  One location that seems appealing is the recently proposed stadium to be constructed in Burnsville, Minnesota (25 minutes south of the Metrodome).  Two private financiers, Tony Pettit and Terry Deroche, have submitted preliminary designs of a 7,300-seat ballpark to the city of Burnsville that would be constructed without government assistance and potentially be ready to hold independent Northern League games on its grounds by the 2009 season.  Dakota County, Minnesota's third most populous county, has over 380,000 residences and, like Gwinnett County in Georgia, a strong economic base to support a minor league franchise.   

    Bringing a low-A Midwest League team into the Twin Cities would be a good reward to local Twins fans, providing them with a low-cost alternative to what is sure to be an increasingly expensive ticket at the taxpayer-funded stadium.  The team would reap dividends from the residual marketing effect of having future Major League players develop just south of the Minnesota River while saving on travel costs for scouts and coaches.  And when the Twins can finally wrestle Des Moines away from the Cubs in 2013 I-35 will be a solid corridor of Twins baseball.        

 **A version of this article appears in the September issue of GameDay.  Nick Nelson, the guest editor for the month, pieced it together to and more cohesion (I tend to ramble, I realize this), so any help wrangling the story in was greatly appreciated.  To read that version along with all the other insightful articles, pick one up from the vendors across the street from the Dome during the Twins' next homestand.

The Billy Smith Factor

Between Terry Ryan's draft picks and acquisitions in conjunction with Billy Smith's offseason signings, trades and waiver wire pick ups, the Twins have produced nearly 8 games above an average team (The team is playing 78-65, nearly 8 games over .500). The unfortunate part is that while Billy Smith had been playing swap-meet to benefit the club, it has in actuality been his biggest hindrance to securing a playoff position. The collect of players contributed by the former general manager have accounted for nearly 13 wins above what a team full of replacements would provide. Meaning absent Smith's contributions, the team would be closer to 84-59 instead of the 78-65. The players added by Smith attrition approximately 7 of those games, with Carlos Gomez (-2.81), Livan Hernandez (-2.06) and Delmon Young (-1.03) being the main culprits.

What we can tell is this judging from the talent amassed by the Ryan Ragime and the new one: Billy Smith, much like his predecessor, is not savvy at building for short-term success of the organization. Smith's wheeling and dealing was a net loss to the Twins of nearly 7 entire games. This is not unlike Ryan in his past seasons. Last year with Ryan at the helm, the signings of Jeff Cirillo, Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz cost the Twins a little over 2 games in the standings. Factor in the decision to resign Rondell White - which resulted in another loss of -0.64 wpa - Ryan's offseason orchestration cost the team a little over 3 games. These 3 games were not vital to the cause as several other key players (Morneau, Mauer, Hunter, Punto) and the entire pitching staff grossly underperformed from their 2006 version and the 2007 team would have been just 82-80 rather than the actual 79-83. The point is still valid that Bill Smith, like his successor whom he learned under, may have the same skills as Ryan did when building for the short-term.

Admittedly, most of Smith's moves where directed for the long-term. It is obvious that Smith, much like Ryan, is thinking about the stability and sustainability of the organization. First, his offseason trades of Johan Santana to the Mets and Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan were not projected to be trades to have an immediate impact in the win column. Delmon Young is under the team's control for several more years while Carlos Gomez barely has a year of MLB service and the pitching trio of Philip Humber, Kevin Mulvey and Deolis Guerra are still another year away each from contributing to the big club. Aside from Young and Branden Harris, none of those obtained were really expected to have an immediate impact. Furthermore, the trade deadline passed without the Twins taking a mortgage out on the future. There were plenty of offers made, but the Twins held fast and choose not to part with any more pitching prospects. Clearly a sign that Smith is maintaining the same course as the previous ship's captain.

Plainly, Smith's short-term signings have been disastrous. Craig Monroe (-0.10), Adam Everett (-0.36), Mike Lamb (-0.37), and Livan Hernandez (-2.06) all were largely detrimental to the team's record, deflecting nearly 3 wins away from the team. Even as the team found themselves charging towards a pennant race with a maimed bullpen, Smith's trade of minor league pitcher Mike Hamburger to Texas for Eddie Guardado has yet to produce any fruits (-0.16) while other move that he should have made at the waiver deadline (Chad Bradford) has contributed 0.43 wpa to the American League East leading Tampa Bay Rays. What's more is that only the brief play of Howie Clark (+0.27) and the waiver wire acquisition of Craig Breslow (+0.28) has added to the win column that could be accounted to Smith's general managing.

Terry Ryan - Offense	Acquired	WPA
J. Mauer	Drafted	+3.93
J. Morneau	Drafted	+3.80
J. Kubel	Drafted	+0.70
D. Span	Drafted	+1.03
M. Cuddyer	Drafted	-0.23
B. Buscher	Trade + Developed	+0.41
N. Punto	Trade	-0.41
A. Casilla	Trade + Developed	-1.19
M. Redmond	Free Agent	-1.57
2008 Total:		+6.52

Terry Ryan - Pitching	Acquired	WPA
B. Bonser	Trade + Developed	-1.45
K. Slowey	Drafted	0.78
N. Blackburn	Drafted	0.81
G. Perkins	Drafted	0.95
F. Liriano	Trade + Developed	0.87
S. Baker	Drafted	2.52
J. Rincon	Developed	-0.75
J. Crain	Drafted	-0.62
P. Neshek	Drafted	0.03
M. Guerrier	Trade + Developed	0.41
D. Reyes	Free Agent	0.13
B. Bass	Free Agent	0.05
J. Nathan	Trade	3.38
2008 Total:		+6.24

Billy Smith - Offense	Acquired	WPA
H. Clark	Free Agent	+0.27
R. Ruiz	Free Agent	-0.06
C. Monroe	Trade (waiver)	-0.10
B. Harris	Trade	-0.25
A. Everett	Free Agent	-0.36
M. Lamb	Free Agent	-0.37
D. Young	Trade	-1.03
C. Gomez	Trade	-2.81
2008 Total:		-4.71

Billy Smith - Pitching	Acquired	WPA
L. Hernandez	Free agent	-2.06
C. Breslow	Waiver	+0.28
E. Guardado	Trade (waiver)	-0.16
2008 Total:		-1.94

2008 Team Total:

78-65

+7.68

Let's play make-believe here for a moment and assume Rays general manager did not want to trade Delmon Young, Brendan Harris or Jason Pridie for Matt Garza, Jason Bartlett or Eduardo Morlan. Try to imagine that there were absolutely no takers on the market for Johan Santana since he, Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia were all impending free agents after the 2008 season and nobody was willing to meet what most believed were ransom demands for the southpaw. Visualize for a moment that the Twins retained Torii Hunter for a humongous fee and then pretend that instead of Kyle Lohse being stood up during the hotstove it was Carlos Silva - whom the Twins kept on in 2008 for the same one-year contract St Louis granted Lohse. If those possibilities were not far fetched enough here's where the truth is stretch quite a bit. This scenario would then project that each player that in reality had left the team would still continue their same level of contribution towards winning, therefore, even though it is a given that Carlos Silva would be backed up by a much better defense that the one he currently plays with in Seattle, he still maintains his -2.96 wpa towards the Twins. Likewise, we would assume that the players that did sign or were traded to the Twins maintained their exact same level of production.

Billy Smith - Traded Away/DFA	New Team	WPA
J. Santana	Mets	+3.26
J. Bartlett	Rays	-1.88
M. Garza	Rays	+1.27
T. Hunter	Angels	+0.58
C. Silva	Mariners	-2.96
2008 Total:		+0.27

- The retention of Carlos Silva would mean that Livan Hernandez was never acquired. Silva, however, would prove to be even more detrimental to the team as the difference between Hernandez's -2.06 and Silva's -2.96 would still have been a net loss of -0.90 to the +7.68 wpa total.

- Keeping Santana would thereby mean the Twins would probably have stashed someone young in AAA Rochester - most likely Nick Blackburn . My natural assumption tends to be Blackburn as he was the least experienced professionally among the remaining members of the rotation. Subtract Blackburn's +0.85 from Santana's +3.26 and the Twins would have grabbed an extra 2.41 wins in addition to the team's +7.68 wpa total.

- Having Matt Garza in the rotation would send Glen Perkins to the bullpen (this maneuver would also eliminate Brian Bass from the roster as well) or possibly Rochester. Garza's contribution of +1.27 would be reduced to +0.32 to the +7.68 total when you factor in Perkins's current +0.95 to the positive side of the ledger. There is some debate about what Perkins would contribute had he been placed in the bullpen minus the Brian Bass, most likely a positive one however, that kind of extrapolation is beyond me. Because this is my fantasy and my simplification, let's assume Bass's +0.05 as the long man.

- To this point in the calculations, the team would have added almost 2 victories by not signing Hernandez and keeping Santana and Garza - a total of +9.51.

- Simply swapping Jason Bartlett for Adam Everett is unfair. Both have been hurt at various points in the seasons but Everett has missed much more playing time. Still, instead of Everett's -0.36, pretend that the team was stuck with Bartlett's atrocious -1.88. This would cost the team -1.52 at the shortstop position.

- Because Santana was not traded and Torii Hunter resigned, Carlos Gomez never existed outside of Flushing, New York for Twins fans. Opposed to Go-Go's blackhole of -2.96 wpa, fans were treated to a positive +0.58 at center field. Rather than being 3 games in the hole, the Twins would have added +3.54 games back into in the win column.

- Assuming that Denard Span impressed the Twins enough during spring training to enter camp as a left fielder in the stead of Delmon Young, the Twins would have gained (+1.03) exactly what they lost (-1.03) from the Rays left fielder, which would give the team a positive net of +2.06.

- The absences of Brendan Harris would have placed a significant strain of Nick Punto and Alexi Casilla. This is a more complicated trade off. Therefore I would believe that his playing time would be absorbed between the two switch-hitters, both whom would have been marginally worse than Harris offensively. Double Harris's -0.25 to -0.50 to Casilla's total. So instead of -1.19, Casilla now contributed -1.69.

- Lastly because the Twins had a new-found faith in internal candidate Brian Buscher, Mike Lamb was never signed. Credit the Twins an additional +0.77.

- Through all of the batters' contributions, the Twins would have scratched out +13.86 over the +7.68 current total - a near seven win difference if someone hogtied Billy Smith throughout the offseason.

Bizarro 2008 Team Total:

85-58

+13.86

Was He The Right One?

	age	innings	earned runs	fip	pLI	wpa
E. Guardado	37	2.1	5	2.67	1.17	-0.19
L. Hawkins	35	11	0	0.83	0.90	0.93
C. Bradford	33	9.2	1	3.82	2.16	0.21

The Twins decided due to internal scouting reports not to place a waiver claim on Chad Bradford and instead allowed him to funnel past the team on the waiver wire only to be nabbed by the AL East leading Tampa Bay Rays. Every Ray fan owes Bill Smith a debt of gratitude for that. Since his relocation to Tampa on August 7th for a player to be named later, the Rays have gone 16-6. And that has very much to do with Bradford. Bradford has been used in 12 games, mostly in very high leverage situations (as indicated by his 2.16 pLI). A heavy groundball oriented pitcher thanks to his nearly underarmed motion with a career groundball rate of 64.4%, Bradford went from a team whose defense converted a very low amount of balls in play into outs (.684 DER) to the American League leader (.708 DER). Would Bradford have contributed the same amount of success to the Twins? The answer is probably not. Because Bradford puts the ball in play so frequently he would be reliant on a Twins defense that has been even worse than the Orioles in converting outs (.682 DER).

In my analysis of the Hawk prior to the trade deadline, I suspected that he would be a serviceable addition to any bullpen but that any team that acquires him should anticipate a wide veriety of results. Houston, however, has only found one: success. When the Astros signed Latroy Hawkins after he was designated for free agency by the New York Yankees, there were several eyebrows raised in the baseball community. After all, general manager Ed Wade and his team were 50-57 staring up at a 13.5 game deficient to the division leading Chicago Cubs why invest in an 8th inning guy? Since adding Hawkins, the Astros have the best records in all of baseball going 24-9 in that stretch. For his part, Hawkins has yet to surrender a run and has struck out 43% of the 37 batters faced in his 14 appearances. Unlike Bradford who has been counting on the seven guys behind him to accumulate outs, Hawkins has blown away the National League opponents. What has changed besides venue and fewer match-ups against the strong lineups in the American League East? The Astros have coaxed Hawkins into using his curveball more frequently (15.2%), throwing it slightly less than his slider (18.2%). Yes, it is a small sampling, but even his fastball has more zip on average down south. While with the Yankees, Hawkins was topping out at 92.5 since the move his fastball is hitting 94 on average.

As the Rays and Astros bask in their new found bullpen saviors, the Twins have scratched their heads in wonderment about what went wrong with Eddie. In his short tenure with the club, the Twins have gone 3-5 since the August 25th trade with the Rangers. So far, Guardado has detracted from the team, subtracting 0.19 in their win probability in those 4 appearances. This should not be a surprise to anyone. The 37 year old lefty has been on and off a gurney for the better half of three seasons. When studying his trends last month, it was obvious that his arm my not have the life to pitch an entire season without wear. In August his batting average on balls in play went from .216 in July to .423. Since the swap with the Rangers, Guardado has witness that BABIP spike to .668 thanks to an absurdly high line drive rate. Though just pitching in 4 games and facing a small sample of 16 batters opponents have hit 9 line drives hit off him. This is an indication that he is possibly pitching with a tired arm that is resulting in balls up in the zone.

Notebook Dump (9.3.08)

Game: Twinks 5, Jays 7

Box Score

Post-Game Wrap

Glen Perkins Report Card

Record: 77-51, tied, 1st place

Streak: 1 loss

The Quote: "It's my job to come in and keep us ahead, not put them ahead. This is a game we should have won. Just happens that we didn't win. We know where we're at [in the standings] so every game is big." - Boof Bonser

The Bullpen:

TWINS	% of innings pitched	era	wins	losses
April	35.4%	3.54	4	4
May	35.0%	3.94	6	3
June	34.3%	3.27	6	3
July	29.7%	5.21	3	2
August	30.3%	4.13	2	8

AL AVERAGE	% of innings pitched	era	wins	losses
April	34%	4.14	54	58
May	32.1%	3.43	50	53
June	33.4%	3.74	60	56
July	34.6%	4.29	53	49
August	34.8%	4.45	56	62

1) Ever since the Twins released Livan Hernandez, the bullpen has absorbed fewer innings. The defense for acquiring a veteran arm was to relieve the bullpen of work yet since jettisoning Livan, the Twins have needed to go to the bullpen less. Yet the Twins were forced to go to their bullpen more in the first half of the season - more frequently than the major league average.

2) So, did early overusage wear out the bullpen? Much scrutiny and ballyhoo is paid to the starters and their pitch counts, yet they often get five days to recover. Their maintanance is that like of a marathon runner. Relievers on the other hand are the game's sprinterd, asked to stay vigilant and ready at a moment's notice. Is the early season overuse weardown the arms? Guerrier was shut down last year. Crain was sawed open and repaired. Reyes missed a good portion of the season. Now Guardado, who has had history of injuries, is thrown into the mix. Do they have enough gas to get through September?

3) And does the added innings come at the expense of young starters? Neither Blackburn nor Perkins have worked this many innings in their professional careers. Blackburn's walk rate spiked in August and Perkins has had trouble perservering through the middle innings. Are these signs of tiring arms? What about Francisco Liriano who spent all of last season in rehab? His arm appears fresh since his retooling in Rochester but how much more does he have.