Was He The Right One?

	age	innings	earned runs	fip	pLI	wpa
E. Guardado	37	2.1	5	2.67	1.17	-0.19
L. Hawkins	35	11	0	0.83	0.90	0.93
C. Bradford	33	9.2	1	3.82	2.16	0.21

The Twins decided due to internal scouting reports not to place a waiver claim on Chad Bradford and instead allowed him to funnel past the team on the waiver wire only to be nabbed by the AL East leading Tampa Bay Rays. Every Ray fan owes Bill Smith a debt of gratitude for that. Since his relocation to Tampa on August 7th for a player to be named later, the Rays have gone 16-6. And that has very much to do with Bradford. Bradford has been used in 12 games, mostly in very high leverage situations (as indicated by his 2.16 pLI). A heavy groundball oriented pitcher thanks to his nearly underarmed motion with a career groundball rate of 64.4%, Bradford went from a team whose defense converted a very low amount of balls in play into outs (.684 DER) to the American League leader (.708 DER). Would Bradford have contributed the same amount of success to the Twins? The answer is probably not. Because Bradford puts the ball in play so frequently he would be reliant on a Twins defense that has been even worse than the Orioles in converting outs (.682 DER).

In my analysis of the Hawk prior to the trade deadline, I suspected that he would be a serviceable addition to any bullpen but that any team that acquires him should anticipate a wide veriety of results. Houston, however, has only found one: success. When the Astros signed Latroy Hawkins after he was designated for free agency by the New York Yankees, there were several eyebrows raised in the baseball community. After all, general manager Ed Wade and his team were 50-57 staring up at a 13.5 game deficient to the division leading Chicago Cubs why invest in an 8th inning guy? Since adding Hawkins, the Astros have the best records in all of baseball going 24-9 in that stretch. For his part, Hawkins has yet to surrender a run and has struck out 43% of the 37 batters faced in his 14 appearances. Unlike Bradford who has been counting on the seven guys behind him to accumulate outs, Hawkins has blown away the National League opponents. What has changed besides venue and fewer match-ups against the strong lineups in the American League East? The Astros have coaxed Hawkins into using his curveball more frequently (15.2%), throwing it slightly less than his slider (18.2%). Yes, it is a small sampling, but even his fastball has more zip on average down south. While with the Yankees, Hawkins was topping out at 92.5 since the move his fastball is hitting 94 on average.

As the Rays and Astros bask in their new found bullpen saviors, the Twins have scratched their heads in wonderment about what went wrong with Eddie. In his short tenure with the club, the Twins have gone 3-5 since the August 25th trade with the Rangers. So far, Guardado has detracted from the team, subtracting 0.19 in their win probability in those 4 appearances. This should not be a surprise to anyone. The 37 year old lefty has been on and off a gurney for the better half of three seasons. When studying his trends last month, it was obvious that his arm my not have the life to pitch an entire season without wear. In August his batting average on balls in play went from .216 in July to .423. Since the swap with the Rangers, Guardado has witness that BABIP spike to .668 thanks to an absurdly high line drive rate. Though just pitching in 4 games and facing a small sample of 16 batters opponents have hit 9 line drives hit off him. This is an indication that he is possibly pitching with a tired arm that is resulting in balls up in the zone.

Notebook Dump (9.3.08)

Game: Twinks 5, Jays 7

Box Score

Post-Game Wrap

Glen Perkins Report Card

Record: 77-51, tied, 1st place

Streak: 1 loss

The Quote: "It's my job to come in and keep us ahead, not put them ahead. This is a game we should have won. Just happens that we didn't win. We know where we're at [in the standings] so every game is big." - Boof Bonser

The Bullpen:

TWINS	% of innings pitched	era	wins	losses
April	35.4%	3.54	4	4
May	35.0%	3.94	6	3
June	34.3%	3.27	6	3
July	29.7%	5.21	3	2
August	30.3%	4.13	2	8

AL AVERAGE	% of innings pitched	era	wins	losses
April	34%	4.14	54	58
May	32.1%	3.43	50	53
June	33.4%	3.74	60	56
July	34.6%	4.29	53	49
August	34.8%	4.45	56	62

1) Ever since the Twins released Livan Hernandez, the bullpen has absorbed fewer innings. The defense for acquiring a veteran arm was to relieve the bullpen of work yet since jettisoning Livan, the Twins have needed to go to the bullpen less. Yet the Twins were forced to go to their bullpen more in the first half of the season - more frequently than the major league average.

2) So, did early overusage wear out the bullpen? Much scrutiny and ballyhoo is paid to the starters and their pitch counts, yet they often get five days to recover. Their maintanance is that like of a marathon runner. Relievers on the other hand are the game's sprinterd, asked to stay vigilant and ready at a moment's notice. Is the early season overuse weardown the arms? Guerrier was shut down last year. Crain was sawed open and repaired. Reyes missed a good portion of the season. Now Guardado, who has had history of injuries, is thrown into the mix. Do they have enough gas to get through September?

3) And does the added innings come at the expense of young starters? Neither Blackburn nor Perkins have worked this many innings in their professional careers. Blackburn's walk rate spiked in August and Perkins has had trouble perservering through the middle innings. Are these signs of tiring arms? What about Francisco Liriano who spent all of last season in rehab? His arm appears fresh since his retooling in Rochester but how much more does he have.

A New Market

Ever since he lambasted the results of the Home Run derby, saying that Josh Hamilton had 'paid for the tux, limo and corsage but Justin Morneau kissed the girl' after the Canadian slugger had bested the feelgood story at Yankee Stadium, I have loathed Rick Reilly. It was a disgusting display of pandering from a columnist who would like you to believe that he is a crusader for justice. Yet his latest article on ESPN.com is intriguing - a look at a crop of 30 year olds that have put up solid minor league numbers but in their prime years, the mid-20s, they were passed in depth charts by guys on PEDs or were buried in the minors as aging veterans prolonged their careers with HGH. Reilly highlights two minor league veterans in 30 year old Mitch Jones (Dodgers organization) and 29 year old Shawn Garrett (Mariner organization). Neither, however, have solid career numbers. Jones, a corner infielder, has had 3,949 minor league bats and has hit 200 home runs while batting .250/.334/.497. The 200 home runs is seemingly the basis for inclusion on a major league roster. The power is certainly there, as indicative of his .320 isolated power average. Garrett, on the other hand, has less of a compelling argument. Reilly cites Garrett's 2004 stint with the Colorado Springs Sky Sox (a Rockies AAA affiliate) when he hit .371. What isn't reported is that the .371 batting average was compiled in just 125 plate appearances. His career line is .291/.345/.449 in 11 minor league seasons.

Reilly is on to something that he didn't even intend. To some, these are scrap-heap players but in reality, this is the new emerging market. As the league's power numbers begin to regress to the mean as the number of 'roided sluggers and HGH'ed veterans diminishes, the 27-32 year old minor leaguers veterans will continue their consistant output. For a relatively inexpensive contract and an invite to spring training, these formerly overlooked sluggers could be obtained as a part-time designated hitter/pinch hitter. Ryan Ludwick, with the St Louis Cardinals, is a perfect example of this. After experiencing brief snippets of play with Texas and Cleveland, the 29 year old Ludwick is having a career year with the Cardinals batting .303/.378/.599 with 32 home runs in 456 at bats. Ludwick's .270/.345/.501 minor league career numbers are strikingly similar to those of Mitch Jones. In addition to being the second-highest win contributor on the Cardinals team (2.49 wpa), the team is paying Ludwick less than $500,000 for his efforts.

There are plenty of other Ryan Ludwick types ready for an opportunity. Take John Lindsey for example. In 13 minor league seasons, Lindsey has managed to hit .278/.342/.459 with 156 home runs split between the Rockies, Mariners, Padres and Dodgers organizations but has been stuck behind James Loney and Nomar Garciaparra the past two years. Another to consider is the right-handed batting first baseman Val Pascucci, who is 28 years old and has played with the Expos, Marlins, Phillies and now the Mets organizations, has hit .278/.392/.494 with 174 home runs in his 8 minor league seasons. Pascucci would have to make an unlikely vault over Carlos Delgado. The Brewers have used Joe Dillon in various capacities in the last two seasons before sending him back to triple-AAA Nashville. In his 26 year old season in 2002 while in the Twins organization, Dillon split time between double-AA and triple-AAA where he hit .257/.356/.401 with 9 home runs in 362 at bats. In his 10 seasons in the minors, Dillon has hit .294/.379/.518 with 156 home runs. The 29 year old Tagg Bozied has batted .278/.349/.502 in his 7 minor league seasons while launching 117 home runs and reducing his strike out rate to 15%, down from 18%. Pawtucket's left-handed batting Chris Carter, who is currently being blocked by David Ortiz and Kevin Youkilis in Boston, has been a career .308/.383/.518 with 110 home runs and will be 26 years old next year and, more importantly, a minor league free agent. These are just some of the examples of undervalued talent that have provided a solid minor league pedigree.

The Twins were willing to sink money and a minor leaguer for a player like Craig Monroe just to address the need for a right-handed bat. Any of the above minor leaguers (outside of Chris Carter) could have adequately filled that role at a fraction of the cost. Reilly might be on to something.

Notebook Dump (08.27.08)

Game: Twinks 6, Marinerds 5

Box Score

Post-Game Wrap

Record: 75-58, 2nd place, 1 game back

Streak: 1 win

The Quote: "[Twins outfielder Carlos] Gomez ran that ball down in left-center earlier, and then Span threw our guy out, and it's athleticism. They can run, they can throw -- that's what got them here, their athleticism -- and they're making a name for themselves out there." - Mariners manager, Jim Riggleman

The Inning:

In the bottom of the seventh Twin killer Raul Ibanez tagged a 92-mph fastball that was left up in the zone for his 21st home run of the year. As a background, the left-handed hitting Ibanez has absolutely crushed same-sided pitching, batting .319/.387/.513 against them in 181 plate appearances equal, if not better, than his right-sided opposition (.293/.359/.501). Conversely, in his limited venture past the 6th inning, Glen Perkins has seen little success. In innings 1 through 3, opponents were hitting .277/.328/.417 in 256 plate appearances. The middle portion of the game, innings 4-6, 225 batters have combined to hit .284/.318/.441. In 10 games this season, Gardenhire has allowed Perkins to continue into the 7th inning. The results have been less than good. Facing 54 batters under those circumstances Perkins has suffered through a .354/.396/.646 batting line. If these trends weren't reason enough to second-guess, his pitch count should have been factored in as well. From pitches 75-100 Perkins has surrendered the majority of his home runs, 8 or half of his total, while having opponents treat him like batting practice, slugging .578 as the game wears on. True, Perkins had retired the previous two batters yet both Ichiro (.270/.326/.325 vs. lhp) and Yuniesky Betancourt (.250/.262/.363) are not capable of doing damage against left-handed pitching. With a 3-3 tie, Gardenhire opted to continue on with Perkins even as he encroached on 97 pitches.

Now with a 4-3 lead, staring down a sweep at the hands of the last-place Mariners, the Twins needed to mount on last rally. Thankfully, Jim Riggleman was compliant and inserted Sean Green into the game. Green, born in Louisville, Kentucky and attended the local University of Louisville, was selected in the 12th round of the 2000 draft by the Colorado Rockies. In the winter of 2004, the Colorado Rockies sent Green to Seattle for Aaron (Big Country) Taylor, a relief pitcher of equal value but two years Green's elder. Taylor, after 21.3 innings with the Mariners, never saw Coors Field with the Rockies nor did he pitch a minor league inning in 2005 or beyond. Green, on the other hand, has made over 150 appearances with the Mariners, accumulating 166.3 innings with 122-78 strike outs-to-walks and a career 3.90 era. The right-handed reliever has seen his deployment change from mop-up (0.47 pLI in 2006) to an 8th inning guy (1.20 pLI in 2008). His 89 mph fastball is complimented by his 76 mph slider. In terms of splits, Green has fared much better with the righties (.217/.296/.268) than the lefties (.257/.367/.367). Morneau has hit right handed pitchers with a .314/.409/.531 clip. Beyond Green, Riggleman had little option in his relief staff. The only lefty remaining in the bullpen was Ceser Jimenez who had been punished by left-handed batters as well (.348/.400/.478). "Out left-handers just haven't been getting left-handers out," Riggleman said when asked after the game why he didn't bring Jimenez in to face Moreanu. "If the left-on-left thing worked, then I would have brought in Jimenez to face Morneau. But the Twins wear out left-handers." Had he had the option, Riggleman would have used Brandon Marrow who had been an effective 8th inning guy and was sent back to AAA Tacoma to retrain his arm in preparation to start. Marrow had tossed 36.7 with 47 strikeouts and 15 walks with a 1.47 era.

Green worked outside to Morneau then worked a strike past him to even the count 1-1. On his third pitch Green used a 90-mph sinker that Morneau crushed on a line to left-center for a his 36th double of the year. This brought Randy Ruiz to the plate. Ruiz had failed to advance a runner from second the night before in the Twins loss. After a first pitch ball, Ruiz fouled off two pitches - both fastballs. The fourth, Green presented Ruiz with a 77 mph curveball which Ruiz laced to left field. 10 feet to the right or left, the ball would have found the third baseman or shortstop and had the same results as the night before. This one made its way to Ibanez in left field.

Gardenhire made his first move of the afternoon, pinch running Adam Everett for the stout Randy Ruiz. Meanwhile another left-handed batter, Jason Kubel, strode to the plate. Since the beginning of the month of August, Kubel has had 7 extra base hits and batted .301/.346/.493. For the record, his third straight batter Green started with a ball. Trying to work Kubel in, Green fell behind 2-1 when he threw a 90 mph fastball up and in on Kubel. Kubel smashed the ball to Ichiro in right scoring Morneau from third to tie the game and moving Everett to 3rd as he pulled in second with his 15th double of the year. The game now knotted at 4 a piece and no outs with runners on second and third, Gardenhire went to his bench for the second time, replacing Kubel with Carlos Gomez. In response to questioning the use of Green Riggleman said, "I just didn't see the point. I felt the eighth inning should belong to Sean Green and that's the way it went.''

Green coaxed a grounder out of Delmon Young to first base to obtain the initial out of the inning without succumbing to another run. Gardenhire reached down for his third maneuver, recalling Branden Harris for Brian Buscher. As expected, Riggleman responded with Jimenez. To his credit, Riggleman made a wise decision: Buscher has been baffled by lefties, hitting just .100/.129/.100. Gardenhire admitted after the game that he was not aware that Jimenez was warming up. "Their lefty was hiding in a corner over there," Gardenhire said. Jimenez introduced himself to Buscher with an 80 mph changeup low and away that Buscher drove to left-center, emptying the bases.

"We had talked and said, 'If a lefty gives you something out and over the plate, you can't go deep in the count, just go after it and hit it,'" Gardenhire said. "Buscher put a good swing on it, and that was huge."

The Links:

- Not surprising to those who know what a LOOGY is, Dennys Reyes leads the majors in most one-pitch appearances. To date, he has thrown 530 pitches in 60 appearances. To this end each pitch has cost the Twins roughly $1,886. Not a bad way to make a living.

- Judd Spicer's Secretary of Labor is Justin Morneau. Nice.

- TwinsGeek takes a look at the bullpen using the BaseballProspectus statistic, Average Runs Prevented.

- Randy Ruiz, not only making his presence know at the tender age of 30 with the big club, swooped up the International League Rookie of the Year honors. He had the fourth highest qualifying OPS in the league with a .902 ops. In his limited time with the Twins (44 plate appearances) his hit .318/.362/.432 and his first major league home run. "I've waited my whole life to be here, and to have a moment like that was special," Ruiz said of his game-tying solo home run in the sixth. "This year has been unbelievable. Winning Rookie of the Year in the International League at 30 years old and then getting called up here, I'm thinking, 'Wow.' Stuff happens for a reason, and the man upstairs says this is my time to shine, so I'm happy." The front office also thinks highly of Ruiz. "Here's a guy who, when we were talking to him in the offseason, his agent said 'The dollars are important, but he really wants an invite to big-league camp, because he's never had one,'' said Minnesota Twins general manager Bill Smith, in town to scout the Red Wings. "That shocked us, given his history. It's outstanding that he won (the award).''

- The Beloit Snappers will not be making an appearance in the Midwest League postseason thanks to an extra inning loss to the Kane County Cougars. To add more pressure, Twins advisor Terry Ryan was in attendance scouting the Twins low-A talent. “You are kidding yourself if it doesn't make a difference to you because you want to impress,” said prospect Marc Dolenc. “As a minor leaguer, you are always trying to get better and with Terry Ryan here, you want to show that you have ability.” Even though they didn't make the postseason, the Snappers Ben Revere was named the league's MVP after batting nearly .400 for most of the season and finishing .379/.433/.497.

- When the Royals signed Jose Guillen to a 3-year, $30-million dollar contract, they did so under the premise that he would replicate his 2007 season with the Mariners, one in which he hit 23 home runs and batted .290/.353/.460 in 593 plate appearances. What the Royals front office did not take into consideration was that he posted a .330 batting average on balls in play - well above the American League average of .305. What else wasn't considered was that his line drive rate of 16% was below the MLB average of 19% as well. So far in 2008, he's basically put the ball in play the exact same, yet has witnessed a huge dip in his batting average on balls in play to .276 - below the AL average of .300. This season he's hitting .249/.285/.426 with 17 home runs, which frustrates a notable amount of fans, bemoaning his lack of on-base skills. This isn't surprising considering that his walk rate has never been good (a career 5.0% walk rate) so his .353 on-base percentage in 2007 was built around his inflated amount of hits. When the groundballs stopped leaking through, the on-base percentage dropped to a lowly .285. If you gamble $10 million dollars a year on a 32-year-old outfielder that his grounders will continue to bleed through, you're gonna get burnt. On top of his poor numbers he has been vocal in a negative way saying things like “We stink right now. Nothing is going right, and we’re not doing anything right," causing clubhouse problems. As if that wasn't classy enough, Guillen had to be restrained from attacking a fan in the Kauffman Field stands for heckling him. General Manager Dayton Moore was furious with Guillen saying "It doesn't matter what a fan says -- you've got to respond in a way that's professional and the best response is no response, most of the time." Field manager Trey Hillman used quite possibly the ultimate excuse replying "I was actually in the toilet so I didn't see it. Managers do have to use the restroom so I picked a bad time. I found out about it a half-inning later and we talked about it briefly and there's no sense commenting on it."

- Gotta hand it to Joe Pos for finding the new team to hate in the playoffs: the Chicago Cubs. After reading the article, I found that the criteria to hate this team seems to be, according to Joe Pos, 1) you are from the Southside of Chicago, 2) you are from St. Louis, 3) you are from Milwaukee. Geography is the determining factor? There maybe a hint at payroll in the article what with the star-studded lineup, yet at $118 million they are the 7th highest payroll in the major leagues - succeeded by the team from the Southside team (5th) and the LAA Angels (6th), both playoff caliber teams. So why hate the Cubs? Because they have an obnoxious victory song? Or is it because they are steamrolling teams with their .621 winning percentage - the best in baseball?

Know Thy Enemy:

- B-R.com Oakland A's Page

- The Drumbeat (SF Gate)

- Chin Music (Contra Costa Times)

- Athletic Nation

The Breakdown of Eddie Guardado

After hurling just 13.7 innings in a forgettable season with Cincinnati in 2007, Eddie Guardado had found a home in the Lone Star State when General Manager Jon Daniels took a flier on the former closer to a 1-year, $2 million dollar contract. Instead of having Guardado chew meaningless innings or retiring a solitary left-handed batter per outing, the man that had amassed 183 saves between 1995 and 2006 with Minnesota, Seattle and Cincinnati was once again tasked with meatier roles.

Guardado sports a 1.31 leverage index, essentially the equivalent role as Dennys Reyes (1.42 pLI) or Matt Guerrier (1.33 pLI), but where those two failed to provide adequate performance (0.28 wpa and 0.33 wpa, respectively), Guardado's pitching has assisted his team towards victory (2.53 wpa). Guardado spent April and May being deployed in the seventh innings in 10 of 18 appearances. His 15.1 innings of work that produced a 2.93 era earned manager Ron Washington's trust. In June and July Guardado was the Rangers main set-up man for closer CJ Wilson, holding 18 games. He received a vote of confidence by the manager by working the eighth inning in 20 out of 28 appearances in that time. By August the Rangers had promoted him to closer in place of the injured Wilson. "I've been pitching this year like it was the ninth inning, like I was the last man standing," Guardado said. "That's given me an edge to get the job done. Pitching in the ninth, that's pressure, no doubt. In the eighth, you know there's someone behind you to pick you up if you fail. In the ninth, you've got to close the door." Guardado's set up success did not parley into a dominate closer though. In 8.1 innings of work in August under his new title, Guardado has allowed 11 hits and 5 walks leading to 5 runs - saving just two games.

Month	Batters Face	Average	On-Base	Slugging	BABIP
April/Mar	14	.308	.357	.308	.332
May	45	.171	.244	.317	.182
June	50	.152	.220	.261	.162
July	47	.214	.255	.381	.216
August	38	.355	.444	.548	.423

He readily admits that he is showing his age, but his ascending opponent numbers as the season grows support the hypothesis that Guardado may be breaking down. "I'm going to leave my arm on the mound one day," Guardado said with a laugh. "I'm going to turn around, pick it up and say, 'Let's go.' But that's what it's all about when you're playing for something special. You never know when you'll get to that spot again."

The 2008 Eddie Guardado is an anomaly of a pitcher. It is hard to isolate any particular statistic that reaffirms his success though a great number of them deserve a second look. The 37 year old lefty no longer possesses the ability to miss bats as he did in 2002 when he accumulated 45 saves while striking out 67 of 270 batters faced (24.8%) or the following season when he locked down 41 saves while whiffing 70 out of 270 (25.9%). This season, after being shut down by the Reds in 2006 and signing the short-term contract with the Rangers, Guardado has managed to strike out only 28 of 194 batters faced (14%). As cliche as it sounds, Guardado reinvented himself as a pitcher. Instead of batters making contact 76% of the time, as was the case in 2002, now batters are making contact in 86% of match-ups but rather than see his numbers skyrocket (especially given the conducive nature the Ballpark at Arlington is to offense) Guardado has remained consistent - opponents hit .215 off of hin 2002 and they have hit .220 in 2008. He now unleashes a subdued 85-mph fastball, down 2-mph hour from 2006. Yet in spite of that large contact difference, Guardado's 2008 results, a WHIP of 1.15, do not vary that much from his 2002 season when he produced a WHIP of 1.04. What is the differences between Eddies?

"I don't know, bro, I wish I had an answer for you," Guardado said. "The best I can tell you is I pound the strike zone, I keep the ball down and, for the most part, I stay ahead of hitters. I'm not afraid, I know what I've got and I trust it."

Guardado's self-analysis notwithstanding, his numbers would suggested that he is actually not within the strike zone as much as he would like you to believe. In 2002, 70% of his pitches were strikes, both swinging and called. By 2008 there was a 5% decrease in the amount of pitches within the strike zone. However the notable difference is that Guardado has experienced a growth in called strikes, going from 20% in 2002 to 36% in 2008, suggesting that Guardado is indeed better at locating his pitches therefore getting batters to swing at "his pitches". How has this effected his results?

	2002	2008
Groundball	34%	26%
Flyball	46%	52%
Line Drive	22%	20%

One explanation for Guardado's resurgence could be partially credited to his defense, as difficult as it is to believe. It is no small secret that the Texas Rangers have shown the worst defense since Bonds claimed flax seed oil was responsible for his muscular build. The team has committed 108 errors and are the proud owner of a .668 defensive efficiency ratio (meaning that roughly 66% of all balls in play are converted to outs) both the worst in the American League. Even knowing that his team might covert less than 67% of balls in play into outs with a substantial odd that they might muff the play altogether, Guardado still boasts a .243 batting average on balls in play. This is marginally better than his .259 batting average on balls in play while with Minnesota in 2002 (a team that committed a league low 74 errors and converted nearly 70.3% of balls in play into outs) but at a time when 25% of his opponents were striking out. Normally one would argue luck as the reason behind Guardado's batting average on balls in play - particularly without any strikeouts to justify defensive swings - but his ability to show control within the strike zone as led to more flyballs (52% of the time) which typically obey Newton's Law and returns as an out as indicative of the opponents' .122/.118/.297 batting line on flyballs.

What does this study tell us about Eddie Guardado's potential in Minnesota? The Twins will provide better defense in the outfield (Span, Gomez and Young) over that of Texas (Boggs, Hamilton, Murphy) so if he continues to incite flyballs, Guardado stands a better chance of those being coverted to outs. On the other hand, the change in opponent average over the past two months could also indicate that Guardado's arm is tiring. If the trend is accurate, Guardado's .355/.444/.548 opponent line in August would only exacerbate the bullpen problems at the cost of a decent relief prospect. Nevertheless, the gamble on acquiring Guardado is worth taking as the bullpen appears to be in a freefall. In the event that Guardado cannot revert to his June-July performance, the Twins will certainly regret not bringing in either Chad Bradford (7 innings, 1.63 pLI, 0.63 wpa) or LaTroy Hawkins (7 innings, 0.83 pLI, 0.60 wpa) both of whom as thriving at their new homes in Tampa Bay and Houston.