We All Make Sacrifices

Team	Sac Bunt	RISP Avg
Min	39	.313
Tor	35	.244
Tex	34	.289
Cle	28	.263
Det	27	.271
Sea	27	.246
NY	26	.259
KC	25	.279
Bos	23	.269
Laa	23	.293
Bal	22	.295
Chi	22	.282
Oak	19	.266
Tb	16	.240

Since baseball has no time measurement the sport relies on the increment of outs, particularly 27 outs per side (or 24 if you are the home team with the lead after the top of the 9th), to act as the clock. Researchers from George Lindsay to Pete Palmer have discovered long ago the value of not giving away outs, condemning the practice of sacrificing, the act of exchanging an out for 90 feet. Data has shown that foregoing the sacrifice will help produce more offense over the course of a season. Bill Felber in his analysis of the game of baseball wrote in his book "The Book on the Book" that there are just a few times in which a sacrifice is useful. In short specifically when a) a your pitcher not named Micah Owings is batting or b) you have shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt (.259/.273/.358) batting and you are playing for one run. This is because on the whole trading one of your outs for a base decreases the likelihood that a run will score. Probability wise, when there are no outs and a runner on first, the team batting will score an average of .907 runs. Giving up an out for second base decreases the amount of runs scored by -.187.

Armed with this knowledge, why do managers - especially American League managers that do not have to suffer from the dreaded offensive void from a pitcher batting - choose to surrender one of the precious 27 outs? Ron Gardenhire has implemented the sacrifice bunt 39 times thus far in the 2008 season leading the league in the category. The practice allow infuriorates some statheads. Gardenhire has readily accepted 39 outs. Why? More importantly, if sacrificing bunting impedes the ability to amass runs, how are the Twins discarding this commonly accepted theory and are still fifth in the league in runs scored per game?

Gardenhire's main perpretrator for the bunt has been whomever is batting in the two spot (15 sacrifice bunts). The two-hitter has been used without discrimination, it does matter whether it Alexi Casilla (8 sac bunts), who was batting a productive .315/.352/.414 while hitting second, or Brendan Harris (4 sac bunts), who was batting an inferior .250/.327/.354 following the lead-off batter. The decision to ask a batter who has been hitting .250 to lay down a bunt certainly lends credence over requesting someone batting .315 to, but it becomes slightly more logical to bunt when you consider that with a runner on first, both Harris and Casilla have grounded in doubleplays 7% of the time. The choice of sacrificing one out instead of the cost of two is more reasonable: With two outs and no one on base, the chances of scoring a run in that inning decrease from .907 with a runner on first and no outs to .114 with no runners on and two outs.

Casilla is not the only hitter batting over .300 that Gardenhire would rather bunt then swing. Denard Span has recorded 6 sacrifice bunts as well while batting .309 on the season. In addition to the 18 sacrifice bunts by Casilla, Harris and Span, Gardenhire has had the light-hitting Adam Everett to square up on five pitches. Recent power surge notwithstanding, Everett has been as close to dreadful at the plate as possible. His .214/.273/.347 batting line does not inspire much confidence that he will successfully reach base and advance the runner simultaneously. This, of course, was not news. The Twins invested a significant amount of time in the spring getting Everett to hone his bunting skills. Situationally, however, three of Everett's sacrifices have come while he was batting eight with a statistically similar Carlos Gomez (.254/.291/.344) hitting behind him. Technically Gomez has only recorded 2 sacrifice bunts, though he has attempted 56 bunts, reaching base successfully 48% of the time. Not only does Gomez advance a runner, but he also increases the opportunity of converting what would be a sacrifice to a hit with his speed. Under the circumstances with runners on first and second and no outs, the offensive team typically score an average of 1.515 runs.

As described previously, moving a runner up to second at the expense of an out costs the team -.187 runs. When considering how to deploy a hitter like Adam Everett or Carlos Gomez with a runner on first and no outs one must determine what is the chances he will either a) reach first successfully through a hit in turn advancing the lead run, b) record an out but put the ball in play in a manner that would advance the runner on first (a rarity considering the events that have to transpire in order to have a fielder's choice happen while avoiding a doubleplay), c) strike out or d) ground into a doubleplay. Though Everett rarely strikes out (11%) he is prone to hitting plenty of infield flyballs (11%) and his batting average on balls in play (.229) suggest that he will be converted to an out without advancing the runner (or worse recording two outs). Similarly Gomez is a strikeout machine (23.5%) and matches Everett's infield fly propensity (14%) suggesting that the possibility of Gomez propelling the leading runner forward to be minimal. To waste an out with a low level of advancement success can me more detrimental to a ball club than the -.187 at the expense of a sacrifice. If Everett or Gomez fail to move the runner to second at the same time recording an out, the run possibility decreases from .907 to .544 (-.363 net loss). That said a successful sacrifice bunt would gain a potential +.176 runs over a failed plate appearance that resulted in an out with a runner on first.

So why hasn't the excessive bunting cost the Twins runs? Without reviewing a season's worth of play-by-play data, it is hard to determine how many runners that were advanced on those 39 sacrifices ultimately scored but it would be easy to assume that a good percentage did cross the plate. A possible explanation for this has been the Twins' gaudy batting average with runners in scoring position. 31.3% of at-bats the Twins have managed to hit safely, driving in 465 of their 592 runs under those circumstances. Having Casilla or Harris move Gomez to second or third with one out in front of Mauer (.351 with risp) or Morneau (.376 with risp) ensuring that one run will score. Certainly this disregard for 39 outs could have a negative effect on the runs that COULD HAVE scored if Casilla or Span were allowed to swing away as the season progresses but Gardenhire appears to be playing the numbers and it is working for the team.

Up too late.

* I hate being up at 12:19 am writing. Especially after a brutal extra innings Twins loss to the Yankees...

* After complaints about his playing time, the Tigers have opted to place Gary Sheffield on waivers. As I suggested back in January, the Gary Sheffield trade is proving to be ill-advised for the Detroit Tigers. After trading Anthony Claggett, Humberto Sanchez, and Kevin Whelan to the Yankees for Sheffield, they signed him to a two-year, $28-million dollar extension for 2008 and 2009. Now 38 years old, Sheffield has seen his numbers decline and his injuries increase as the months pass in a season. His best month, June, consisted of just 29 plate appearances as he hit .286/.310/.536. "I can be in the outfield and play every day. I don't want to DH," Sheffield told the Boston Globe. "I don't feel like a baseball player when I DH. I don't know how to be the leader that I am from the bench. I can't be a vocal leader. I can't talk to guys from the bench because I don't feel right about it." Interestingly enough, Sheffield has not played a relevant position since 2005 when he logged 1,099 innings at right field for the Yankees. Commented general manager Dave Dombrowski, the orchestrator of the Sheffield acquisition, "If he's found out he doesn't like it, well, that's the only role we have for him at this time. He has not shown from a health perspective that he's been able to play every day in the outfield. He just has to perform the task that's asked of him."

* Like the Tigers, the Yankees might be falling into a similar trap of relying too much on their veteran talent. Hank Steinbrenner noted that the injuries to key players such as Chien-Ming Wang, Jorge Posada, Hideki Matsui, Phil Hughes and Ian Kennedy in 2008 while provide the Yankees the opportunity to return to the World Series in 2009 when they are fully healed. "We're going to win it next year," Steinbrenner said. "If we need to add a top veteran pitcher, we'll do that. We'll do whatever we need to do. Next year we'll be extremely dangerous." Certainly the Yankees have the cash to sign either Ben Sheets or C.C. Sabathia, both of whom the Brewers have said they do not have the money to resign and either (or both) will look good with Hughes, Chamberlain and Kennedy in the 2009 rotation. However, the Yankees are plenty deficient in several areas that will need addressing. Defensively they are atrocious and not getting younger. Derek Jeter, currently 33 years old, is due $20 million in 2009 and $21 million in 2010. Obviously the money means nothing to the likes of a Steinbrenner, as indicitive of the 10-year, $275 million contract given to Alex Rodriguez, but Jeter is almost certain to decline further as a shortstop in those years. According to Baseball-Reference.com, his most comparable player at 33 is Roberto Alomar. Alomar never had another season offensively where his statistics were above league average after turning 33 and was traded twice and shamefully retired a Tampa Bay Devil Ray in 2005 without playing an inning that season. With $41 million committed to Jeter in the next two seasons, he seems as immovable for New York as the Statue of Liberty - there are few organizations that a) need an aging shortstop and b) have the resources to pay for it. Aside from requesting he relocate to second base, the only likelihood of gaining value out of Jeter is to trade him to an organization that loves to obtain aging talent. But Jeter isn't the only problem, the list goes on. Jorge Posada is due $39.1 million through 2011. Posada is 36 years old and is brittle as a catcher, most likely destined to be a first baseman or designated hitter as he approaches 40. His bat can still swing and hope is that he winds up being similar to his most comparable player, Carlton Fisk, who had relevant years in to his 44th year. But Fisk proves to be the exception in terms of longevity for a catcher. A great target to plunder would be the Tampa Bay organization. Not just because the Yankees operate out of Tampa and are likely hobnobbing with the front office of Tampa, but Tampa has a meaty minor league system, a taste of a pennant race but empty seats. Like Kansas City in the 1950s and 1960s, Tampa Bay could become a suitable trading partner for the Yankees when attempting to dump enormous contracts of aging players albeit headlining talent able to bring fans to the ballpark on to a region that could use drawing power. Yes, it is far-fetched considering that Tampa's first competitive season was conceived because they were no longer investing in washed-up talent but rather homegrown prospects. Certainly the Rays could fall into the same trap that the Yankees did when they exchanged Sheffield for three of the Tigers prospects after they fell short of October glory in 2006. If you are Brian Cashman, trading the players that still have some luster left should be a priority.

* Sports Illustrated's John Donovan does not foresee Francisco Liriano as the savior, but he certainly could be the difference maker in the American League Central race as the White Sox's Jose Contreras will be out for the season. Would you rather have Liriano or D.J. Carrasco/Lance Broadway as your 5th starter?

* The Star Tribune highlighted the background of the three Pohland boys, Jim (55), Bob (54) and Bill (52). Though I'm sure the trio will do a very good job of fronting the organization, I still am confounded by the story Jay Weiner relayed in his book Stadium Deal: Fifty Years of Greed and Bush League Boondoggles in which a meeting with the Twins executives and scouts resulting in Bill, the brother that helped finance movies such as 'Brokeback Mountain', asking the group why baseball players didn't have uniformed swings like golfers only to get disbelieving stares in return.

* On Monday, the Twins inked Bobby Kielty to a minor league deal, having him report to Rochester. There are a lot of positives in the career of Bobby Kielty. For starters, Kielty displayed great patience, sporting a career walk rate of 11.8%, and was a tough strike out (just 17.8% of his plate appearances) for a player with the power that Kielty had (.408 career slugging). As for the biggest highlight of his career Kielty smacked a pinch-hit solo home run in the deciding Game Four against the Colorado Rockies in the 2007 World Series. This past off season the 31-year-old Kielty was one of the affordable free agents who mashes left-handed pitching. In his seven season, Kielty has hit .296/.379/.503 against southpaws as a right-handed batter but has seen his production decrease when turning around to the left side of the plate to face right-handed pitchers, hitting .228/.329/.348. His low price tag made him a target among stats worshippers, identifying him as the ideal platoon partner in the outfield or as a designated hitter. The Red Sox, a team that employs Bill James, decided to retain Kielty and let him battle for the 4th outfield position. Kielty was beset with a bone growth in his right hand that had been bothering him for several seasons that finally became a problem in the form of a fracture in the height of spring training. "It had been something that had hung around for a few years," said Kielty. "Then I suffered a fracture on it, and I decided that I needed to have surgery done for myself and my career. If I didn't do it, it would be something that would be nagging me for a long time." Kielty opted for surgery in May that would significantly impede his ability to compete for a roster spot in 2008 given his accelerated age. During his rehabilitation stint with the AAA Pawtucket Red Sox, Kielty suffered yet another setback this time in the form of a oblique pull that would cost Kielty another month of recovery. In 2008, Kielty has had a grand total of 108 at-bats hitting .241/.366/.417 split between the California League, the New York-Penn and the International League. Still Kielty has proven that he can still wallop the lefties batting .333/.485/.625 in hist 24 at-bats this year. The additional injury to Michael Cuddyer tarnished any thoughts of him returning to be a contributing bat in the Twins lineup against lefties during the stretch run. If the Twins utilize Kielty right, which is to say using him against the left, the Twins might find value in his signing. Even if he never fully recovers this season, Kielty give Rochester a replacement bat for Randy Ruiz.

The Friday Flotsam

* The Twins are now one-half game behind the White Sox in the American League Central, thanks to a steadfast Detroit Tiger bullpen who fended off Chicago 8-3. The Tigers have had a tough month of August. After trading Ivan Rodriguez to the Yankees for former closer Kyle Farnsworth at the trade deadline in efforts to solidify a bullpen riddled with injuries, the Tigers relievers have responded with a 5.21 era in 19 innings pitched in August. The Twins are landing in Kansas City ready for a three-game series against the Royals, finding themselves in one of the most beneficial situations since Matt Dillon signed on to do Wild Things. As the Twins prepare for a series against a team that has a losing record at home (27-32), the White Sox, meanwhile, have a four-game series against the Boston Red Sox. Now, maybe it is over-inflating the situation comparing it to a Campbell/Richards sandwich when the Red Sox have not performed well on the road (26-33) and are Manny-less, but since jettisoning Ramirez and acquiring Jason Bay, the Red Sox are 5-1. So the fact still remains the Twins are in a good position to ascend in the standings over this weekend.

* Like the Twins who are discovering offensive answers within their own system, the Royals finally took the initiative and promoted the 27-year-old shortstop Mike Aviles. Since his call up in May, Aviles has received 231 plate appearances and has hit 7 home runs and is batting .330/.355/.529. Baseball Prospectus 2008 described Aviles as a good-bat, no-glove shortstop. Considering the alternatives the Royals have deployed in recent memory, sacrificing a little glove love is understanding. After all, it took the Royals three entire seasons of medicrity of Angel Berroa before deciding to move on to Tony Pena Jr. "I can remember turning in good reports on him,” John Wathan, Royals Assistant to Player Development said. “I had him labeled as a major-league second baseman with the ability to fill in at shortstop. I was always impressed with his bat.”

Year	Royals SS	plate appearances	batting average	on-base percentage	slugging
2008	Aviles	231	.330	.355	.529
2007	Pena	532	.268	.282	.357
2006	Berroa	501	.235	.260	.355
2005	Berroa	652	.270	.305	.375
2004	Berroa	554	.262	.308	.385
2003	Berroa	635	.287	.338	.451

* The Royals will open the series with Kyle Davies, the right-hander the they acquired in trade with the Atlanta Braves for Octavio "Shhh!" Dotel in 2007. Davies has recorded victories in his last two starts in spite of going only 5 innings in each of those games. “You don’t want to give up runs, but you also want to make sure you go deep into games,” Davies said. “One of the reasons you are a starting pitcher is to go out there and go as long as you can. Four or five innings is not very good for the team.” A completely valid point, especially for someone opening up the a three-game series in which a bullpen can be fried quickly in the first game. The Twins need to strike quickly tonight in efforts to make Royals manager Trey Hillman dig into his bullpen early.

* The Tampa Bay Rays, in their first ever pennant race, grabbed Chad Bradford off of the waivers from the Baltimore Orioles. "A very interesting acquisition," Tampa Bay manager Joe Maddon said. "No hitter says, 'Oh good, we have a sinkerballer coming in. It's a different weapon that we haven't had." The Rays will send the Orioles a player-to-be-named-later with the $3.5 million due to Bradford for 2009. Bradford, while posting a solid era, has been in a steady decline when gauging his peripheral statistics. His strikeout rate has dropped from 17% in 2006 to 10% in 2007 to 8% this season. Strange enough, his velocity has decreased but then gained speed this season. His fastball went from 79 mph in 2007 to 78 in 2007 to 80 this year. One of the best aspects about Bradford is that he was inducing groundballs nearly 70% of the time this year while pitching in high leverage situations - next to closer George Sherrill and Jim Johnson, Bradford has been the Orioles most reliable reliever in tough situations. Dave Cameron did an nice analysis of him at Fangraph. The Twins, who with the lower record than the AL East leading Rays had the ability to claim Bradford prior to Tampa, could have definitely used his arm out of the pen down the stretch run. It will be interesting to see the organizations explanation for not claiming Bradford - most likely due to his large contract.

Notebook Dump (08.04.08)

Game: Twinks 7, Marinerds 3

Box Score

Record: 63-51, 2nd place, 1.0 game back

Streak: 1 win

The Quote: "I never dreamed this. I've always had confidence in myself, but I never imagined I'd be helping this team this soon." - Denard Span, Twins Right Fielder

The Inning: One night after rewarding a pair of ticket-holders in the right field seats with souvenir home run balls and finishing the night 4-5 with 3 rbis, the Belle Fourche, South Dakota native, Jason Kubel, earned the right for a curtain call for the second consecutive game. While Kubel was certainly deserving of an encore, there was just one caveat: Jarrod Washburn. Washburn, the left-handed soft tossing starting pitcher, uses an assortment of junk to quelch any left-handed batter's advances. Deploying mostly a fastball (87.7 mph, 51%) and a slider (78.6 mph, 31%) to incite same-sided opponents into hitting a marginal .268/.316/.366 in 133 match-ups, Washburn has had some success against these match-ups. Kubel, meanwhile, had been one of manager Ron Gardenhire's favor platoon candidates limiting his plate appearances against lefties to just 20% of his total. This is justified as Kubel has been hitting just .172/.270/.297 against southpaws (not to mention 0 for 3 against Washburn in previous match-ups). Still, one of his two home runs against the left-handers came last night against reliever Cesar Jimenez in the 8th inning of Tuesday's game so Kubel was dispelling Delmon Young in left field for the afternoon in a "What Have You Done For Me Lately" managerial decision.

In the top of the 2nd inning, Washburn went to work on Kubel, starting with an 88 mph fastball that missed wide of the plate. The Mariners' hurler followed this with another fastball of like speed that cut the corner for strike one. Kubel worked himself into a count that he has found comfort in this season. With the count 1-1, Kubel had been hitting .423/.423/.577 - well above the American League average of .331/.336/.517. This count, usually considered even, clearly favors the batter as pitcher's are most likely locating a pitch in the zone to avoid falling behind. In this case, the pitcher on the mound is a "crafty" veteran who may have been aware of these circumstances. Washburn slipped Kubel a 76 mph curve that was up in the strike zone, which Kubel chased and pulled to first baseman Bryan LeHair (Is the Ball LeHair nickname already taken?) who flipped to the covering Washburn for the first out.

With one out, the Twins recent replacement for Craig Monroe, Randy Ruiz, came to the plate. With 30 years, 9.5 minor league seasons and 2 performance enhancing drug suspensions later the Bronx native Ruiz finally found himself with a team that could use his employment. Had the Twins front office not been so ambitious with the acquisition of Monroe from the Chicago Cubs this past off season, they may have found the ideal and inexpensive player with the necessary skill set ready to mash left-handed pitching from Day One. Instead, it took over a half a season to make this realization. Ruiz had punished left-handed International League pitching to a tune of .315/.386/.495. What's more is that Ruiz fared better against his right-handed counterparts, batting .321/.359/.511 with 13 home runs, making him not just your average platoon Designated Hitter. Without any real scouting report assembled on Ruiz yet, Washburn attempted to work both sides of the plate, missing with a fastball but getting him to chase a changeup wide of the plate for a foul tip. Washburn tried to work low and in then went high and in with his fastballs. The count now full, Washburn hit too much of the inner half of the plate with a fastball which the 235-pound Ruiz redirected to centerfield for his second hit of his young major league career.

A runner now on first and Washburn throwing from the stretch, Brendan Harris was due up. Harris has been one of the overlooked pieces of the Delmon Young-Matt Garza trade. On opening day, Harris was anointed the starting second baseman but after a poor showing at the plate in May (.217/.320/.289) and June (.242/.270/.379) was continued to be penciled into the lineup because of a revolving door of injuries to Adam Everett, Nick Punto and Matt Tolbert, not to mention the slump of Mike Lamb. The Twins received a vote of confidence in July as Harris hit .294/.355/.456 with an isolated power average of .162. This output he continued into the current month, through 19 plate appearances in August, he has outperformed all of his previous months hitting .389/.368/.667 with a mammoth .278 isolated power average, doubling more often then a Vegas blackjack table full of drunken Japanese businessmen. Washburn went to bust him up and in with fastballs, where, according to Inside Edge scouting reports, Harris is most susceptible: when swinging at pitches in that area of the strike zone, Harris is hitting just .182. Washburn used a pair of fastballs that Harris fouled off. On the 0-2, Washburn wasted a pitch that Harris laid off (in fact, just 7% of his swings have been at pitches that have been outside the zone away). Reconsulting his scouting report, Washburn went back up and in to induce Harris into a groundball to the left side of the infield, a result that happens 20% of the time when Harris puts a ball in play. Harris has a dreadful average on balls put into play that remain in the infield on the left side, just .179, so it took an error by the Mariners third baseman Adrian Beltre in order for Harris to reach successfully.

Following the error by Beltre, Ruiz and Harris occupied first and second respectively with Kubel being the lone Twin retired so far in the 2nd inning. The ensuing batter, Adam Everett, stood a very good chance of replicating Kubel's feat. Since the 31 year old returned from disabled list he had been held hitless in 6 at-bats. Prior to the injury, Everett was not of much use either as he hit .189/.235/.324 in 83 plate appearances through May 21st. Falling behind 2-1 to the career .245 hitter, Washburn did the one thing he shouldn't have. He grooved an 89 mph fastball down the middle of the plate, the one area of the zone that Everett has hit with success (.321 on babip). Everett slapped it to left in front of Raul Ibanez for a single and Randy Ruiz, the big boy that he his, puffed his way from second to score the first run of the game. For Everett, it was just his 8th rbi as a Twin.

Unnerved by this base hit to a player that had barely crested .250 in his career, Washburn walked Carlos Gomez on seven pitches. This was amazing on several accounts. One, Gomez typically sees an average of 3.4 pitches per plate appearance - the second fewest pitches in the American League per plate appearances (besides the current Mariner shortstop Yuniesky Betancourt, who at 3.1 is the most efficient out in the American League). Two, Gomez drew a walk. This is event, like Halley's Comet, happens once every 28.1 plate appearances. This abysmal 3.5% walk rate is absurd for someone who was allowed to account for 415 plate appearances in the leadoff spot.

The bases now full of Twins for Denard Span who was approaching the plate for his second time in the afternoon. Span as been the Anti-Gomez since being given the lead off spot. As Gomez provide the Twins lineup with a .281 on-base average in his tenure batting first, Span has sported a robust .358 on-base average - a 27% increase in on-base percentage since the switch. Though Gomez reached first in what manager Ron Gardenhire described as "exciting", such as bunting and legging out infield hits, Span has been, by that standard, ho-hum, wasting 3.8 pitches per plate appearance before making his move to first. Compared to Gomez's 28.1 plate appearances between walks, Span likes to take the free base a little more frequently, walking once every 8.2 plate appearances. With the renewed production at leadoff Gardenhire is singing a different tune. "[Span'll] bat No. 1, and he'll play every day. I can tell you that," Gardenhire said following the game on Wednesday afternoon. And he should play everyday based on his July/August numbers: In his 103 plate appearances in July, Span hit .321/.412/.488 complemented nicely with a .167 isolated power average. As the calender turned, Span stayed hot hitting .263/.318/.526 in 22 plate appearances, smacking the ball with a .263 isolated power average. Though the sample size is small, Span, like the majority of the other Twins left-handed batters, has had success against left-handed pitching as well hitting .317/.417/.585 in 51 plate appearances this season. Back at the second inning at Safeco, Span was situated smackdab in the middle of a critical rbi spot. After striking out Span on four straight fastballs without a swing in the first inning, Washburn initiated the 2nd battle between the two with a 77 mph curveball on the outer edge of the strike zone that Span fouled off. Up 0-1, Washburn employed his 91 mph fastball that burned the outside corner that Span foul tipped back to catcher Jeff Clement. Now with the count clearly in Washburn's advantage at 0-2, he was in position to toy with Span. Get him to chase a ball out of the zone or climb the ladder, tossing one well above the strike zone. Instead, Washburn went to his aforementioned slider that he relies on with lefties. Obviously the intention was not to hang a slider, more than likely the desired location was to clip the inside corner or drop well outside the zone. Span turned on the 79 mph slider and pulled in clear into the right field corner. Ichiro raced to the ball as the Twins on base raced home. Span slid safely into third with his fourth triple and 13th, 14th and 15th rbis of the season ahead of him to increase the lead to 4-0. "It just kind of hung up there over the plate,'' Mariners catcher and Iowa native Jeff Clement said after the game - a game that happened to be the 63rd victory for the Minnesota Twins thanks to Denard Span.

The Second Coming

In his first start back with the Minnesota Twins following an April demotion, Francisco Liriano set out to prove the he is indeed the pitcher reflective in his minor league numbers. Star Tribune's Jim Souhan recently penned a column speculating on the trade deadline hours after it past. Souhan bravely suggested that Liriano should have been the prime trade bait in the efforts to net a right-handed slugger: "Fans remember Liriano as unhittable and charming, and he has scythed through the International League this summer. Talk to someone other than a stat geek, though, and you'll hear that Liriano is facing mediocre competition, is throwing most of his fastballs at 91 mph, and will not be the dominant force fans remember, even if he stays healthy." Whether your a stat geek or curmudgeonly scout it is hard to deny that in the past three months Francisco Liriano has shown steady improvement. Unfortunately the only way to show it in writing is through the use of demon statistics: In 39 innings in May, Liriano walked 6.5% and struck out 17.6%. In 36.2 innings in June, he walked 5.2% and struck out 24.7%. July was by far his best of the year, walking 3.9% and striking out 32.8% in 34 innings. By all accounts, he was attacking the strike zone and winning the match-ups in front of him regardless if they were the 1998 Yankees on the best kind of steroids or a Walter Matthau coached gaggle of misfits.

"I've seen him a lot in the last couple months down in the Minor Leagues, and he goes out and pitches his heart out. He has been dominant down there. He's been striking people out when he needs to strike people out, getting ground balls when he needs to get ground balls. He's doing an excellent job. I hope to see when he comes back [Sunday] what he is going to do, because I know everybody is going to be happy here." said his Red Wings and now Twins teammate Randy Ruiz.

In Souhan's mind, the pathway to the postseason would have been to ship Liriano to Seattle for Adrian Beltre so that Beltre could hit 3-run home runs for the Twins only to have Livan Hernandez give up 6 runs thereby deleting Beltre's contributions.

Thankfully people smarter than Souhan are at the helm of the Twins.

Souhan's logic is flawed as one bat for two years in exchange for the valuable left-handed starting pitcher would have been a steep price for an organization to pay. However the basis for his for wanting to package Liriano is reasonable. The words "Tommy John recovery" makes people cringe - especially after his first introduction back into the Majors following his entire year off.

In his April 24th start against the Oakland A's, one that produced six earned runs in two-thirds of an inning of work, I charted his pitch location and types with the assistance of MLB's Pitchf/x system. The data showed that several problems persisted with the left-hander from Dominican Republic. First, the findings showed that Liriano had a significant decrease in his velocity, throwing his fastball in the 88-91 mph range (consistently under 90 mph in that game). Fangraph.com shows that he was throwing his fastball 94.7 mph in 2005 and 2006 while averaging just 90 in his three starts in 2008. Secondly, in addition to a decline in velocity that day, Liriano had as much control as a University of Florida frat boy on spring break: 48% of his pitches were outside the strike zone, just 4 of the 9 batters faced were met with a first pitch strike (two of which were gifts from swings on high fastballs). In his dominating 2006 season, 67% of his pitches were strikes. As opposed to 2006 when he was getting the first pitch strike 60% of the time, this season he began the count 0-1 only 45% of the time in 2008 - a 15% decrease in the amount of match-ups starting in the pitcher's favor. While it may appear that there is a negligible difference between 0-1 and 1-0, but American League batters are hitting just .263/.279/.355 after the count starts at 0-1 and hitting .280/.393/.451 when the count starts in their favor. Therefore on average there exists a greater than 10% increase in the opponent reaching base if the first pitch was a ball.

What contributed most to the six earned runs that day was the fact that when Liriano did locate the strike zone (52%), it was down the heart of the plate (20%) with the substandard fastball with little movement. On top of that his off-speed pitches were not able to masque the fastball. He threw his change-up as the set-up pitch that game and did not get chase swings from the very patient Oakland lineup. The slider, once a golden bullet in his arsonal, is now thrown at 79 mph down from the hard 87 mph that resembled a fastball coming out of his hand only to drop away from the left-handed swing and tie up a right-handed batter as it dove into their ankles. Now it lacked the sharp break and speed to make it effective. In that game he threw just one slider to Rajai Davis. It registered 81 mph on the radar gun.

In the post-game press conference after the Oakland game, manager Ron Gardenhire spoke to the media amidst all indication that Liriano had been given his last start in Minnesota in long time. "We've got some discussing to do right here," Gardenhire said. "We've seen him and know where we are at with him. That's very important. So the comeback continues. No one said it was going to be easy, and it's not an easy thing when you sit out that long. We believe this young man is going to be a very, very good pitcher for us. It's going to take a lot of work, and we'll see where we are at over the next few days and make some decisions on what to do next."

After 10.3 innings of work with a 11.32 era and 13 walks to 7 strikeouts, the Twins gave Francisco Liriano the additional time to regain his feel for the mound. Liriano responded well to the demotion. It was his last ten starts with the Red Wings where Liriano went 9-0 with a 2.51 era. Most encouraging was his 73 strikeouts and 9 walks in 64.2 innings of work which prompted a recall (after his agent filing charges that the organization was intentionally holding him back first).

Nearly three plus months and a time zone to the east later, Liriano found himself once on the mound in a Twins uniform, in control of a day game. In a broad stroke, the results (6 innings, 3 hits, 3 walks, 5 strikeouts and no runs) show that improvement was made while in Rochester. The MLB Pitchf/x data reflects the same: His fastball, one that he threw 62 times, was constantly in the 90-92 mph range indicating that he has gained 2 to 3 mph in between major league starts. He threw the slider 19 times with greater velocity, between 81-83 mph - another sign that his arm is closer to recovery from the Tommy John - plus he was able to incite missed swing four times and only had one slider put into play (Jamey Carroll put a grounder into play that Brendan Harris overthrew Nick Punto on). This progress suggests that he is closing the gap between what he was and what he currently is. There are also plenty of red flags amid the data. Just 8 of his 24 match-ups began with a first pitch strike, leading to more 1-0 counts. In addition to that, he was out of the strike zone (66%) even more than his April 24th game (48%). These kind of numbers often spell large quantities of runs for opponents as Liriano was not in complete command of his game. "Triple-A baseball's different than here," Gardenhire said. "There's a few veteran hitters, but a lot of guys swing, swing, swing. As we go along, we're going to see some veteran teams that don't swing. They're going to take pitches, and those are going to be challenges for him to throw more pitches over the plate."

But what differed most between the August 3rd Liriano and the April 24th Liriano was where he was locating his pitches. Against Oakland, Liriano elevated too many pitches as 20% thrown were in the top-half of the strike zone or higher. That kind of placement of a 89 mph fastball typically end up as line drives or flyballs. On Sunday, Liriano threw just 9% of his pitches in the top half of the strike zone, tossing 55% in the lower half of the strike zone, a region more prone to inducing groundballs. Finding the zone and keeping it low will be the recipe for success for Liriano.