Notebook Dump (6.8.08)

Game: White Sox 11, Twinks 2

Box Score

Record: 31-31, 2nd place, 4.5 behind Sox

Streak: 3 losses

*.643/.706/1.786 - Joe Crede's batting line the past four games. In addition to going 9-for-14, Crede has had 6 extra base hits including 5 home runs and a double with 10 runs driven in. "Whatever we're doing is not working," catcher Mike Redmond said. "It's the same way we've pitched him in the past. This year he seems really locked on and locked in. ... It seems like everything he hits right now is a home run, a big hit or hit hard. We're definitely going to have to make some adjustments for him." One of those adjustments could have been pitching around him with one out and runners on second and third. Sending Crede to first base would have set up the double play ball and would have brought up the nine hitter in Alexi Ramirez. To be sure, Hernandez's pitch was diving below the knees when Crede reached down and pulled it towards the Twins left field bullpen.

* 51 - Hernandez is now third in the American League with 11 home runs surrendered as well as first in earned runs (51) and hits allowed (124). In fact, Hernandez is on pace to over take Phil Niekro's record of 311 hits set in 1979 while pitching for the Atlanta Braves. "Always in my whole career, I have a lot of hits," Hernandez said. "That's the way I pitch. I'm not a strikeout pitcher. I give up a lot of hits every year. It's not something new for me." This is true. Hernandez has led the league in hits allowed in 2007, 2005, 2001, 2000 and 1998. In his past five starts dating back to his May 17th start in Colorado, Hernandez is averaging a game score of 28 - well below that of a quality start. In those 28.2 innings of work, opponents are batting .416/.425/.592.

* Just Enough/Lucky - Hittrackeronline.com, the cerebral home run tracking database that generates accurate "true distance" of home runs then categorizes them into three types (No-Doubts, Plenty and Just Enough/Lucky). Essentially, a No-Doubt would have been a home run at any park and Plenty would have been at most. Just Enough/Lucky considers other factors such as wind assisted, power alleys, etc that may have aided a home run. The website says that the home runs that came on at-bat #258 for Delmon Young traveled a distance of 375 feet from home plate and almost scrapped the backside of the US Cellular wall on the way back down - categorized as Just Enough/Lucky. Even so, it was nice to see that this pitched was pulled to the left-center power alley. We could be on the cusp of seeing more pitches pulled by Delmon Young.

Juan Gone?

In his previous five outings prior to Tuesday's, Rincon had worked 7.2 innings and given up five earned runs while walking five and striking out four. In two of those outings the Twins brought Rincon in with three runners on base, all of which scored under Rincon's watch. Instead of entering games in which the victory hangs in the balance, the Twins are now forced to cherry-pick situations that Rincon has a high probability of success and the Twins have a minimal risk of losing. On May 19th against Texas, the Twins and Rangers were deadlocked at six a piece with the bottom half of the order coming to the plate in the top of the 11th. Rincon retired rookie Brandon Boggs (92 pa, .262/.319/.369 vs RHP) on a popped bunt but then gave up a double to Frank Catalanotto followed by walks to Saltalamacchi and Vazquez. With the bases now loaded and the game on the line, Gardenhire replaced Rincon with rookie Bobby Korecky who rescued the Twins by getting Kinsler to pop out to center and striking out Michael Young. That outing was followed by appearances in the 1-10 loss to Texas, the 3-19 game against the Tigers and the improbable 9-8 win against the Royals (although Rincon was used when the game was 3-6). On May 31st against the Yankees, Rincon send the sixth (Giambi, .907 ops), seventh (Cano, .597 ops) and eighth (Molina, .548 ops) batters down 1-2-3 in the top of the 11th, but ultimately lost the game in the 12th after getting Cabrera to ground out then gave up three straight singles to Damon, Jeter and Abreu. Brian Bass had to retire Giambi to end the inning.

"By no means are we giving up on him," Twins pitching coach Rick Anderson said. "We're just trying to find situations for him to have success and hope he builds off of that." The Twins are not quite giving up on him, but he has certainly been downgraded. On Tuesday, Juan Rincon was summoned to retire the Orioles less-than-formidable seventh (Ramon Hernandez, .625 ops), eighth (Adam Jones, .661 ops) and ninth (Freddie Bynum, .530 ops) batters with the Twins down by two entering the seventh inning. This non-critical task was the evident confidence builder. Hernandez had been struggling against right-handed pitchers this season, hitting .211/.245/.368 in 144 plate appearances. Likewise, Jones was having similar problems, hitting .233/.270/.344, while Bynum was a foregone conclusion (.211/.262/.281). Rincon, with all of his faults on the season, had handled right-handed batters well. Right-handed opponents were hitting only .204/.328/.278 off of him. The lead would be safe and the Twins, who have gotten quite good at scoring in the late innings, would scratch out two more runs off of the Orioles bullpen. Bing, bang, boom. Rincon, on queue, surrendered a double to right to Hernandez, followed that by launching a ball to the backstop then gave up a single back through the box to Jones to score Hernandez who had moved up to third on the wild pitch. Gardenhire emerged from the dugout, gave the left-arm double-tap - signaling the newly acquired Craig Breslow in from the bullpen - and just like that, Rincon's night was over. The next day, Rincon told reporters "I feel I've just had tough luck. This is a tough time. What do you want me to say? I've been working hard for it, but it's just not working. I'm working as hard as you can work. I definitely don't want to be in this spot, but things are not working and it hasn't been because of a lack of effort or a lack of commitment."

Gardenhire has come to Rincon's defense saying that his velocity has been the same but his location has been up in the zone. Evidence at Fangraphs suggests otherwise. According to their statistics, Rincon has had a steadily declining fastball and slider - his two weapons of choice. In 2005 Rincon, then 26-years-old, pitched 77 innings and struck out nearly 27% of batters faced. His fastball was averaging 94.1 mph and his slider was averaging 87.1 mph. In 2006 through 2008, both his velocity and strikeouts dropped noticeably. In 2006 Rincon's fastball was registering 93 and the slider was at 86.9 while his strikeout rate dropped to 20.6%. In 2007 his fastball was the same (93) but he had lost a bit on his slider (86.0) along with his strikeout rate (18% k%). This season, contrary to the manager's insistence, Rincon has had several more miles per hour shaved off both pitches. The radar gun is only averaging 91.0 mph on his fastball and his slider is at 84.4 mph. Along with the lowered velocity came a lower strikeout rate, just 15%. As the chart below will indicate, these numbers are seemingly correlated to his performance (as gauged by the Fielding Independent metric):

	FBv	SLv	K%	BB%	FIP
2005	94.1	87.1	26.3%	9.4%	2.63
2006	93.0	86.1	20.6%	7.6%	2.89
2007	93.0	86.0	18.0%	10.3%	5.19
2008	91.0	84.4	15.7%	13.0%	4.69

Studying his pitch usage dating back to 2004 on BillJamesOnline.net, we find that there is small, if any change in the balance of his fastball/slider combination. On occasion an addition of a pitch may lead to greater success. Sometimes eliminating one will do the trick (as was the case when Joe Nathan was traded from the Giants and he all but ditched his curveball). Rincon, however, has been a two-trick pony since his major league inception. In 2004, he used his fastball 54% of the time and his slider 27%. Four seasons later, Rincon is still implementing the same two basic pitches, leaning more on his fastball (66%) over his slider (31%), but his pitches aren't getting to the batter as quickly as they once did.

Even though his pitch selection remains fairly consistent, one difference between the years has been the way he has pitched to left-handed batters. In 2004, the season in which he accumulated 102 strikeouts in 82 innings, Rincon was dominating left-handed batting, more so even than the right-handed opponents. In 189 plate appearances, righties hit .206/.285/.285 with a 27.7% strikeout rate. Lefties, on the other hand, were batting just .148/.239/.238 with a 39% strikeout rate in 138 plate appearances. The 2004 pitch data is incomplete and has numerous holes (17% of his pitches went uncharted), but it appeared that he was throwing fewer fastballs (56%) and more sliders (25%) to left-handed batters than he will in subsequent seasons:

vs. LHB	FB%	SL%	AVG	OBP	SLG	K%
2005	62%	23%	.218	.318	.269	27.7%
2006	70%	26%	.222	.283	.239	20.9%
2007	74%	23%	.313	.402	.513	18.1%
2008	79%	18%	.333	.429	.476	14.1%

As you will note, as Rincon's fastball velocity decreases from 2005-2008, his reliance on the pitch increases along with opponent's batting averages. Note too, that with the decline in sliders thrown, has directly correlated with his declining strikeout rate (minus the usage spike in 2006, but he threw more fastballs than the season before). As a player that finds his status of remaining a Minnesota Twins in serious jeopardy, it might be time to resurrect the formula in which Rincon originally obtained success. With Pat Neshek out for the season and Jesse Crain still rebuilding from his season off, Rincon was expected to be a vital part of the bullpen. These adjustments are necessary to avoid Rincon and his $2.47 million being thrown out the Dome's revolving doors.

Notebook Dump (6.4.08)

Score: Birds 5, Twinks 3

Box Score

Record: 30-28, 2^nd place, 1.5 back

Streak: Lost 1

It seems to me, and I do not have empirical data to support my claim so I am using my Dick Bremer system of deduction, is that the Orioles in recent memory seem to have a staff of pitchers that have fallen under the category of “effectively wild”. Daniel Cabrera is a prime example of this. In his career Cabrera has allowed 11% of the total 3,302 batters that he has faced to reach first with a walk. At the same time, he has struck out over 18% of that total too. His erratic tendencies have given the Twins fits. In his 2007 debut on April 3rd, Cabrera faced the Twins at the Metrodome and pitched a fairly solid seven innings as he struck out nine Twins and walked four. Although he gave up six hits, none were made with solid maple contact as 12 of the balls put in play were grounders, three were pop ups and just one line drive was hit. His walks were his ultimate detriment as two of those issued free passes were allowed to score – one on a Michael Cuddyer double-play and one following a Jason Bartlett doink to short-center. In addition to the walks, the Twins ran rampant on the basepaths, stealing four bases including Jason Tyner’s swipe of second that placed in position to score the winning run on Bartlett’s doink.

Similarly on June 10th, 2006, Cabrera squared off against a 2-7 Carlos Silva once again at the Metrodome. Cabrera cruised behind an early 3-0 lead thanks to a Miguel Tejada 3-run blast off of the Chief. Again, Cabrera racked up the walk total, walking six in five innings but struck out five and stranded numerous Twins base runners. In this outing, the Twins did not implement speed (Castro was the shortstop) and were undid by two double-plays to end the inning with runners in scoring position twice.

In order to combat these “effectively wild” pitchers, the winning formula seems to be patience and running coupled with well-timed hits. The patience helps raise the pitch count and the motion (especially on a pitcher like Cabrera who is easier to steal on than a blind Kwik Trip clerk) tends throw him off his game plan. On Tuesday night, the Twins faced Radhames Liz, a recent recall from triple-A Norfolk, who has a history of walks and strikeouts almost in the same mold as Cabrera. The Twins were unable to get their speedier players on base until after the sixth inning so running was not an option and to his credit, Liz was in the zone on a regular basis striking out four while walking just Joe Mauer in the 1^st. The Twins did start to break him down in the 5^th inning when they accumulated three of their four hits off of Liz (all doubles).

Even if the patience is a virtue plan was implemented, it was not followed through. For example, in the second inning, Delmon Young watched Liz begin Cuddyer and Jason Kubel with first pitch balls. Young, however, as he is wont to do on 54% of pitches seen, hacked and fouled off the first pitch that by pitch f/x account was well out of the strike zone. Instead of being 1-0, a count in which he hits .299/.368/.428 after on for his career, he was positioned at 0-1, a count in which he maintains a .260/.277/.347 average afterwards. Again, this goes back to the premise that you must make this type of pitcher labor deep in to counts. Paul Nauert, the home plate umpire, helped Liz expand the strike zone some more calling several strikes that pitch f/x designated as outside of the strike zone. One specifically was a fastball that was significantly outside on Delmon Young that was empathically called strike three and on FSN Bert Blyleven rejoiced by saying that was a “pitcher’s pitch” noting that it “painted the black”. (Lest I remind Bert that the black portion of the plate, by regulations, is not a strike).

The Twins will face Cabrera tonight and will have to employ the same techniques that proved successful in the previous few outings: patience and motion.

Baltimore Orioles Series Preview

* Tonight, the Twins will see Radhames Liz, the highly celebrated right-handed pitching prospect in the Orioles organization who was named the #2 overall prospect in the system by Baseball America and is touted as having the best fastball and best change-up. In 2007, the 6’2” Liz amassed 161 strikeouts in 132 innings pitched (a 27% strikeout rate) while with the double-A Bowie Bay Sox. He finished second behind the Yankees Alan Horne (165) in the Eastern League for strikeouts earning him the late September promotion to the major league. Liz made his major debut in 2007 against the Twins last August, six innings of work against Matt Garza that was spoiled by a three run home run by Torii Hunter. This will be Liz’s 2008 major league debut after 11 starts in triple-A Norfolk where he compiled a record of 1-5 with 58 strikeouts in 60 innings pitched (a 22% strikeout rate). His biggest problem is control. In 2007, he had an 11% walk rate while in double-A and an 18% walk rate in his 24 innings at the majors. After just 4 spring innings in 2008, Liz was reassigned to triple-A Norfolk to work on his location. There he reduced his walk rate to 9.6%. The Baltimore Sun’s Dan Connelly wrote what is long known about minor league pitcher, “You’d like to think he’d [Liz] pitch with more confidence than he had last year. We know he has talent. But you have to get the ball over the plate in the majors or you won’t stay long.” Tonight, Joe Vavra should reiterate that patience is a virtue to his highly eager line-up.

* The Slow-man will have his seventh start of the season tonight. As I had previous mentioned, Slowey’s progress up until his fifth start of the season in Detroit was a bit of an enigma. Blessed with outrageous accuracy and control, Slowey seldom allows a free pass but has allowed a significant number of solo home runs in that duration. In fact, he has walked as many as he has allowed to go yard: six. He had allowed at least one home run in his first four starts but found a groove in the Motor City. His control was off, as indicated by his three walks, yet he only allowed four hits (two of which were doubles) and did not relinquish a run in his six inning of work at Comerica. Slowey’s most recent start against Kansas City was once again blessed with numerous strikes including six strikeouts on his way to a 1-run complete game. The difference between Slowey’s first four starts and his last two is the type of ball that is put into play. During the first four 50.8% of balls in play were fly balls. The last two outings Slowey featured 50% ground balls, which led to less elevation (29% fb%), which led to zero home runs. Hopefully, this is a Kevin Slowey that had learned where to locate his stuff.

* The Orioles are coming off a series against Boston in which they lost 3 of 4. Over their last ten, the Birds are 3-7 and hitting fairly well (scoring 4.1 runs per game) but have had pitching problems (5.5 runs allowed per game). Opponents have been able to run wild over the Orioles battery. In those last ten games, opponents have swiped 20 bases including Boston’s six steals off of Ramon Hernandez (20% cs%) during the May 30^th game. In all fairness, uber-stealer Jacoby Ellsbury stole 3 that game. Daniel Cabrera, who the Twins will see Wednesday night, is second in the American League with 14 stolen bases allowed (82% steal rate), left-hander Garrett Olson, who the Twins will face on Thursday, is fourth in the league with 10 stolen bases allowed (100% steal rate). Expect Gomez, Casilla and Young to be in motion whenever they are on the bases this series.

Notebook Dump (6.01.08)

Game: Yankees 7, Twinks 6 (12 innings)

Box Score

Record: 28-27, 2nd place, 2.0 games behind

* Now on a six-game streak without recording a victory, one that last came on April 29th, Boof Bonser is now winless in the month of May. In his six outings in April Bonser threw 36 innings (6 innings per start) with 22 strikeouts and only 9 walks. Opponents were hitting just .250/.293/.379. In the current month, Bonser had made six starts and compiled 30 innings (5 innings per start) with 20 strikeouts and 11 walks. This month, opponents are hitting him at a .286/.340/.459 clip. One of his biggest problems is somehow vacating the first inning. On the season, Bonser batting line of opponents in the first inning is a hefty .309/.345/.582 but is typically much better once he moves past his first 25 pitches:

pitch count	opponent average
pitches 1-25	.338/.367/.635
pitches 26-50	.213/.280/.307
pitches 51-75	.254/.293/.338
pitches 76-100	.245/.315/.306

The Yankees were kind enough to go down in order in the first including a strikeout to Bobby Abreu, but nevertheless, the first inning has been Bonser's biggest detriment. Bonser did pitch better than the loss suggests. He could have gone deeper into the game had Nick Punto, fresh from the DL, completed the 3rd out on Derek Jeter's ground ball followed by a double by Bobby Abreu and a single by Alex Rodriguez. In the 7th, approaching 101 pitches on the night (a threshold that he has crossed just four times this season), Bonser walked Matsui and then surrendered a single to Giambi. With the game tied 3-3, Gardenhire turned to Jesse Crain with the runners on. Up to this point in the season, Crain has been asked to retire batters with 9 inherited runners on this season and has stranded all but 3 (a 66% strand rate). This time, Crain gave up a double, sacrifice fly and a single to Jose Molina, Miguel Cabrera and Johnny Damon respectively - resulting in three runs, two of which were credited to Bonser.

* Bonser's is speculated to be demoted into the bullpen when Scott Baker is recalled from his rehab assignment. La Velle suggests that it could come at the expense of Brian Bass or Juan Rincon. Both seem like logical candidates. Bass, the long/mop man, has had recent struggles - including a 6.61 era in his 16 innings of work in May. But Bass has also shown indications of being a decent pitcher too, he has entered the game with 26 base runners on (not in one game, that would just be silly) and he has stranded all but nine - a 73% strand rate. Juan Rincon, meanwhile, has been in a steady decline since 2006, and has obviously lost Gardenhire's trust: only three times has Rincon been asked to absorb existing base runners and all five base runners have scored on Rincon's watch.

* Alexi Casilla went 1-3 with two runs scored and walked three times. Through 61 plate appearances Casilla has replicated a batting line (.340/.410/.520) that he hasn't approached since his season with high-A Fort Myers (.331/.387/.406). One difference between the 2008 and 2007 stints in the majors is Casilla's approach at the plate including taking a greater percentage of pitches (63% vs 57%) and taking more for balls (61% vs 58%) which has resulted in more walks (13% vs 4%). This, and a high .366 average on balls in play, has led to his team leading .410 on-base percentage. Because his type of balls put in play is heavily split between ground balls (47%) and fly balls (42%) we can expect that his average should decline as Casilla amasses more plate appearances.

* Bobby Korecky was the recent roster move the Twins made to clear room for the recently acquired Craig Breslow, sent back down to Rochester to make way for the left-handed jettisoned part from Cleveland. This is less to do with Korecky's performance at the major league level than the sheer fact that he has options to burn. Breslow is a unique addition to the bullpen. First of all, he's a friggin' genius: he works at a Yale laboratory doing stem cell research. Second of all, it alleviates some of the pressure that had been placed on Dennys Reyes to get the left-handed out late in the game. Last season, Breslow spent time in triple-A Pawtucket in the relief-saturated Red Sox organization. In 68.2 innings Breslow accumulated 73 strike outs (24.3% k%) while walking just 25 (8.3% bb%). In 2008, however, Cleveland gave Breslow just 8.1 innings of work to earn himself a spot in the already dysfunctional bullpen.

Indians manager Eric Wedge misused the left-hander, once waiting 14-days between appearances and then matching him up more frequently against right-handed batters (72%) than left-handed batters (27%). In his first appearance as a Minnesota Twins, Ron Gardenhire and Rick Anderson greatly improved his odds of succeeding, having him face four left-handed batters out of the five total he faced in the sixth and for two-outs in the seventh. Breslow struck out Bobby Abreu and Alex Rodriguez in the seventh and he dismissed Jason Giambi and Robinson Cano in the eighth before being replaced by Matt Guerrier.

* An interesting profile on Jeff Manship, another well-educated pitcher in the Twins system.

* The rising gas costs are effecting the way minor league clubs are run too.

* I was starting to have sympathy for Royals fans (and the greater Kansas City area in general) who finally beat Cleveland 4-2 after a dozen losses. After blowing two extra inning games in a row (losing Wednesday’s game in historic fashion), the Kansas City lineup was befuddled by control artist extraordinaire Kevin Slowey who assisted in continuing the Royals plunge into an 11-game losing streak. As Joe Posnanski points out, the franchise has had several prolonged losing streaks in recent memory. The 56-106 2005 Royals had a 19-game losing streak and the 62-100 2006 Royals completed 13-games without a win. The Twins fans, meanwhile, have not had to deal with grouped losing of this magnitude in quite some time. In recent years, the Twins have twice lost 10-games in a row: the 70-92 1998 Twins (Sept 9^th-Sept 19^th) and the 68-94 1997 Twins (Aug 9^th-Aug 19^th). Before that, you have to go back to the 77-85 1985 Twins who lost 10 straight May 21^st to June 1^st. In order to find a streak of at least 11 games in a row the Twins lost, you would have to visit the 60-102 1982 Twins. I was one, still nursing so I have no vivid recollections of this team, just worn Topps cards and stories that have been passed along from the elder generations but from what I have gathered May 1982 was unkind to the Bloomington prairie team relocated into the newly opened Metrodome in downtown Minneapolis. When April ended, the Twins found themselves at 9-13, 6 games back in the AL West. The Twins actually opened the season fairly well – starting the first nine games at the Humphrey Dome. On April 9 ^th at 3-1, the Twins were actually 1 game up on everybody in the division, drawing upwards of 23,000 people to the new stadium. In May the Twins play completely unraveled their garnished fanfare. The Twins went 3-26 in May, culminating in a 14-game losing streak that carried into June. As little as 5,000 people trickled into the Dome to watch in hopes of one victory (the Royals have been able to draw at least 12,000 to the K). In that respect, Twins fans should consider themselves fortunate that we have not experienced any losing of that proportion in quite some time.