Home run pitcher, meet home run hitter

As the Twins climbed back to a 7-7 tie in the 8th inning, manager Ron Gardenhire dispatched one of the league’s elite relievers in Joe Nathan and asked him to retire the five (Murphy), six (Laird) and seven (Byrd) hitters for Texas in the top of the ninth. This is obviously not the most critical of situations yet it was a pivotal place in the game so as not to succumb to the potent Ranger offense – even if they were not the most potent of the Texas lineup. The thought process of the Twins skipper must have been that the Twins had to hold the visitors here and attempt to eek out the winning run with his two bench maneuvers (Mauer and Kubel) and his weakest hitting starter (Lamb). When David Murphy reached on a single to open the inning, it was apparent that Nathan’s pitch count was going to rise. Nathan eliminated both Laird and Byrd on strikeouts but had Murphy reach scoring position at second with a stolen base (his fourth of the year). With first base open, Gardy decided to have Nathan intentionally walk the left-handed batting Ramon Vazquez in order to face the right-handed batting Chris Shelton.

Admittedly the decision to walk Vazquez was merited. In the past two weeks Vazquez has been hitting the ball extremely well. In his 39 plate appearances over the last 14 days, the 31-year-old left-handed batting utility infielder had been hitting .438/.513/.563 (despite being just 2-for-7 with two walks in his two games in the series thus far). On the season the majority of his playing time has come against right-handed pitcher - whom he thrived off of, feasting on them at a .342/.417/.493 clip. Putting Vazquez on first also produced a force at all the bases. Then again, Nathan actually has been more effective against lefties this year. In 38 match-ups against left-handed batters, Nathan has managed to strikeout 12 of them and holding them to a .200/.263/.314 batting line. It is reasonable to believe that Nathan could have won that battle. Thankfully, Texas manager Ron Washington ultimately decided to test that theory when he substituted the switch-hitting Jarrod Saltalamacchia in for Chris Shelton.

Nathan beared down on Saltalamacchia. So far during the season, Nathan has been a two-pitch pitcher to left-handed batters fastball (71%) and slider (21%). Nathan began by pumping three straight 95-96 mph fastballs to Saltalamacchia, all called balls. Nathan made the necessary adjustments and put two within the zone for strikes. Armed with the knowledge that within Nathan's repertoire was a very dominant slider that he had used frequently to obtain a strike out, the 22-year-old Saltalamacchia - a hitter that has been alternatively both patient (21% bb%) and strikeout prone (25% k%) this season - must have had his head swirling at 3-2 with the go-ahead run in Murphy on second. Would the veteran closer be crafty enough to drop a 3-2 slider on the highly-touted sophomore? No, Nathan opted for power and came with a letter-high 96 mph fastball that Saltalamacchia would chase for the third out, stranding Murphy and the Rangers in the ninth.

The focus then switched back to the offense, one that had not scored a ton of runs in the ninth inning. Runs have been difficult to come by for the Twins in the later innings. In 33 games the Twins batters have scored just 10 runs in 139 plate appearances in the ninth. Gardenhire used his first bench move to pinch hit Joe Mauer for Craig Monroe who had been 0-4 up until that point. Using Mauer first was a good move for several reasons. First, Mauer had been hitting .375/.385/.417 in his last 26 plate appearances. Secondly, Mauer has led off innings extremely well so far this season. Leading off 31 times in 2008, Mauer had drawn five walks and hit four of his ten doubles. According to Bill James Online, when Mauer leads off the inning the Twins have scored 0.42 runs that inning. When Mauer reaches base leading off the Twins score 0.93 runs (for reference, Gomez contributes more than a run at 1.75 when he reachs) however when Joe Mauer gets out the Twins have failed to score a run at all that inning. It would be a critical 90 feet to gain but the probability was in the Twins favor: Mauer, a player that reaches base over 40% of the time, facing the right-handed Joaquin Benoit, a hard-throwing former closer that has walked 15% of batters faced and has had 34% of his opponents reach base.

The outcome of the match-up was something that rarely occured when Joe Mauer stepped in the batters box: he struck out (only 7% of the time). Benoit buried a 93-mph hour fastball for a called strike and then swapped the speed for tomfoolery as he froze Joe with an 83-mph change-up. Up until this afternoon the Twins catcher had seen an 0-2 count just 10 times in his 171 plate appearances in 2008. What's more is that he only struck out once on the count that tips heavily towards the pitcher's favor. Benoit stayed with the change-up, one that was bound for the dirt, and Mauer did something that only happened 19 times all season out of 243 swings: he missed. Gerald Laird blocked the ball and tossed Mauer out at first to complete the strikeout. If you believe that statistics are a guiding principle in baseball, the Twins were in for a disappointing inning predetermined by the fact that the Twins have failed to score a run in innings that Mauer leads off and does not reach base.

Gardy then deployed Jason Kubel to hit for Mike Redmond. The confidence in Jason Kubel had waned toward the end of April among the Twins faithful and press. The once lauded Kubel sputtered at the plate in the first month of the season, finishing with a 3% walk rate while striking out in 20% of his plate appearances. The four home runs, while noteworthy, were overshadowed by his inability to get on base. In 100 plate appearances that month, Kubel had reached base just 25% of the time. This led to a disappointing batting line of .229/.250/.365 for the month. As the calender turned to May, Kubel has once again regained presence at the plate. In 46 plate appearance so far in May, Kubel has found his patience and batting eye walking 11% of the time and reducing his strikeouts to 13%. For the month Kubel is batting .275/.333/.475. Like Mauer before him, Kubel had been hitting .333/.474/.400 in the past week. Digging in with a greater amount of concentration this month, Kubel drew a one-out, four-pitch walk from Benoit.

This, of course, brought up the 2008 whipping boy. There isn't a whole lot of statistical explanation for the significant decline in Mike Lamb's production. One difference between his 2007 experience with Houston and his 2008 tenure with the Twins is that he is putting the ball in play in a manner that lends itself for far more outs: fly balls. In 2007, Mike Lamb hit fly balls in 38% of the balls put in play. Currently nearly 50% of his balls in play have been skied. The other difference, naturally, is that of the 102 balls that were airborne in 2007, 10% resulted in a home run. The lack of home runs is definitely a glaring problem but the underlying problem isn't the ends, but it is the means. After hitting 42% of the balls in the air in April, Lamb has regressed in May hitting flyballs 56% of the time. This time though, Lamb did not lift a routine flyball to a Rangers outfielder. This time Mike Lamb chased a Benoit change-up for strike three.

Alexi Casilla, a player that is frequently viewed somewhere between prospect and an afterthought trivia answer to the question Who the Twins received from the Angels in the JC Romero trade, has found himself on the major league roster thanks to injuries to all of the middle infielders. His minor league numbers are somewhat difficult to interpret. In A and high-A, Casilla hit very well for both Cedar Rapids and Ft Myers. Even in 199 plate appearances in double-A New Britain Casilla played well enough to think that he was Luis Castillo's long-term replacement. Yet a move to triple-A and an introduction to major league pitching in 2007 was abysmal and only planted seeds of doubt within the minds of the fans. In the past four games, Casilla has emerged as a decent contributor with the bat. He has batted .273/.308/.545 and slugged his first major league home run, a three-run shot, while amassing six rbis to boot. Benoit fed the left-handed batting Casilla three straight fastballs before dropping a 85-mph change-up that Casilla fended off foul. The fifth pitch, another fastball, Casilla flied to Marlon Byrd in center.

Gardenhire's offensive maneuvers did not pay-off and now he was forced to make another difficult decision, one that had been presented to him just two days prior. On Monday as Joe Nathan finished the 10th inning with just five pitches, Gardy decided to use Juan Rincon to open the 11th inning instead of his elite reliever. Rincon walked two batters while getting only one out. This resulted in Rincon having to be lifted for Bobby Korecky who had to rescue him. For all intents and purposes, that move ended up being one of the best moves Gardenhire had made to date as Korecky ultimately scored the game winning run as well. However, similar to his decision to replace Nathan after five pitches on Monday night, Gardy traded Nathan for Brian Bass to begin the top of the 10th. While there are some differences between Monday's game and Thursday's. For one, on Monday Nathan threw only 5 pitches and the sixth, seventh and eighth hitters were coming up for Texas making it less than critical for your relief ace. Meanwhile Thursday afternoon Nathan threw 25 pitches in the ninth while the following inning had the Rangers first, second and third hitter. The last being masher Josh Hamilton, the best hitting in the American League right now. If there was ever a need for a relief ace, it would be to face the top of an order.

Brian Bass has been the mop-up guy for the Twins, the team has given him the opportunity to cut his teeth in low leverage situations. Batters are hitting him fairly well in those circumstances as well, batting .280/.368/.473 with three home runs. On Tuesday he finished where Glen Perkins had left off in the seventh inning, tossing 2.2 innings, striking out 2 and giving up one run most likely giving Gardenhire a false sense of security. Bass has given up five home runs in 29 innings of work, an absurd 21.5% of the flyballs hit off of him reach the seats.

Bass, not necessarily a strikeout pitcher (9.0% k%), whiffed both Ian Kinsler and Michael Young to start the 10th. This left just Josh Hamilton to circumvent. This presented several problems for Bass. For starters in his last six games, Hamilton had hit three home runs while batting .560/.577/1.000. He loved to elevate the ball. Hamilton destroys right-handed pitchers, hitting 9 of his 11 home runs off of them and slugging .630. He is the epitome of a dangerous hitter. This begs the question: Why is Brian Bass asked to retire him?

If Gardenhire is protective of Nathan, why wasn't Dennys Reyes used? Reyes, the Twins version of a LOOGY, last pitched on Monday during the 12-inning marathon game. In the 8th inning while staring down the prospect of facing Josh Hamilton, Gardenhire removed Matt Guerrier for the lefty-lefty match-up. Reyes struck out Hamilton. Unfortunately the switch-hitting Milton Bradley followed with a double and left-handed David Murphy singled him home resulting in a blown save. Still, Reyes has had left-handed batters baffled as in 33 match-ups opponents are only hitting .219/.242/.250 striking out 15% of the time too. Mostimportantly, Reyes is the only member of the pitching staff to not have surrendered a home run.

This gross mismanagement of the bullpen - twice this week - has resulted in one win (that required the first pitcher hit in an American League game since the 1970s) and one loss.

Best Laid Plans.

According to the Hardball Times the Twins infielders are 12 out of 14 teams in the American League in revised zone rating at .765.

	Infield RZR	Infield Out Of Zone
1) Oakland Athletics	.831	46
2) Toronto Blue Jays	.817	65
12) Minnesota Twins	.765	31
13) Detroit Tigers	.756	51
14) Seattle Mariners	.753	61
League Average	.784	51

Only the aging Detroit Tigers (.756) and the American League West cellar-dwelling Seattle Mariners (.753) infields have found themselves executing less plays than the Minnesota Twins. This, of course, is reasonable in the case of the Tigers who have played musical position with Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Guillen at the corner bases. The Tigers started the stone-legged Cabrera at third to begin the season. It was there in 116 innings that Cabrera held a RZR of .600, bad enough to incite Jim Leyland to swap him with Carlos Guillen at first base. Moved across the diamond Guillen's difference was negligible as he had produced at RZR of .667 in 143 innings. Out west the Seattle Mariners have the putrid Richie Sexson (.673 RZR) who is playing first as Jose Vidro mans the designated hitter role. Across the field from Sexson, Andre Beltre is having a substandard season as well (.651 RZR) already committing 8 errors in 386 innings however he has gloved 29 balls out of zone, by far the most by a third baseman.

Though the Twins have completed more anticipated plays than just the Tigers or Mariners, it is the unexpected ones that have been absent. As a unit, the Twins infield has managed only to track down 31 balls out of zone. Even Detroit (51 ooz) and Seattle (61) are outpacing the Twins. The 31 plays made out of zone is 33 less than the league leading Tampa Bay Rays and 20 less than the league average. Being able to track an additional 20-30 balls in plays would have eliminated 20 to 30 base-runners which of course lead to subsequent runs. Limiting opponents' presence on base also benefits the Twins pitching staff who have the highest home runs per game allowed (1.1) in the American League. As obvious as it is, multi-run home runs do more damage than solo home runs.

As bad as Guillen, Cabrera and Beltre have been, Lamb by far is the most inefficient at third. At the plate, Lamb has a .518 ops. Comparatively, Beltre (.760), Guillen (.790) and Cabrera (.824) are all carrying their weight at the plate. At the plate as he continues failing to live up to lofty offensive expectations, but on the field he exacerbates the problem. Lamb had 75 balls within his zone and has only been able to convert outs on 42 of them. Consider that the current Fielding Bible from Bill James Online has Lamb is currently ranked 32 of all starting third basemen. Based upon the Plus/Minus grading system, Lamb is graded as a -7 when making plays to his right (towards the foul line), +1 with balls straight on and -1 ranging to his left (towards short). This isn't exactly news as the Twins understood what they had purchased. MLB.com's Kelly Theiser wrote in January 2008 that "the questions concerning Lamb's range at third were enough to have some teams back off pursuing the veteran for a starting role this winter. Some teams, like the Rangers, weren't even looking at him for the position at all, but rather as an option for first base." There are several similar internal candidates that could replicate the same defense as Lamb such as Brian Buscher and Matt Macri (or at least provide more offense) but neither of those two candidates play exceptional defense.

The contract offered to Adam Everett came with plenty of of unknowns. For starters, the Twins would have no idea how a 31-year-old shortstop would recover from a broken leg. Now Everett is experiencing shoulder problems diminishing his ability to throw across the diamond, which makes him particularly vulnerable during the double-play or ranging to his right (compensating for Lamb's lack of range). The Fielding Bible has indicated that Everett has had 20 opportunities to turn a double-play and has only done so in 10 of those occasions (.500, ranked 28th among shortstops). Ranging to his right, Everett has a -3 grading making the hole between third and short exposed when Lamb and Everett are on the field. The Twins, however, cannot go to the well to replace Adam Everett with a Jason Bartlett as they did to remove Juan Castro in 2006 - there isn't one there, at least one not major league ready (sorry, Alexi).

"I hope we don't have to deal with something like that again," Manager Ron Gardenhire said after Sunday's game against the Rockies. "Missing pop flies and failures to get runners in and executing, the whole package. A disappointing baseball game... Dropping throws to first base. I don't know how you prepare for all those things. We're not used to seeing those things. It's embarrassing for our organization and for our fans." Gardenhire had designs on relocating Brendan Harris to third and inserting Matt Tolbert at second thereby upgrading the defensive alignment. This, of course, was thrown out the window when Tolbert dislodged his left thumb from his hand so the Twins are forced to soldier on with their original plan.

This development, in spite of Gardy's quote, should not be a surprise to no one in this organization. During the onset of the season the idea was that Lamb and Harris were brought in to upgrade the lineup: high-quality defense would be conceded to adding runs at the plate. Everett was going to be the sure-handed glove to bridge third and second, that any offense that he would generate would be a bonus. With this game plan in mind the Twins entered 2008 hoping to score more runs than they defend. To date, this plan has yet to come to fruition.

Notebook Dump (5.17.08)

Game: Twinks 4, Rox 2

Box Score

Record: 21-20

Place: 2nd, 0.5 back

* Nick Blackburn continues to show poise of a much more experienced pitcher, tossing seven innings at Coors and limiting the Rockies to six hits and two runs. Finishing with a Game Score of 63, Blackburn struck out five Rockies and did not allow anyone to reach on a walk. Blackburn also went 1-3 at the plate after slipping a chopper between third baseman Garrett Atkins and Clint Barmes.

* Delmon Young had his 13th multi-hit game of the season however this was the first time he has had a multi-extra base hit game all season after his two doubles. Going into the Colorado series, Young was batting .263/.309/.296. The 3-4 night lifted his numbers to .276/.319/.321. Over the last five games Young is 7-for-23, batting .304/.360/.391. Even without the power, it is hard to sit him. After committing a fatal base running gaff against Toronto when he rounded the base too hard only to be thrown out by Brad Wilkerson from mid-right field when catcher Greg Zaun trailed Young up the line. His overzealous basepath behavior ended up killing a potential rally. Friday Young made a wise decision, tagging up from second to third on a Mike Lamb flyball to the left-center gap. With Adam Everett up and Nick Blackburn in the hole with one-out Young had enough presence to realize that scoring from second would be difficult-to-impossible. Everett came into the game batting .190 and Blackburn just had his first at-bat since high school a few innings prior. When Everett lofted a deep flyball to left-fielder Ryan Spilborghs, Young trotted home resulting in the difference making run. "That was a good bit of baserunning," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. "He read it, got back, tagged up and got there."

* MEDIC! Matt Tolbert is the latest Twins causality with a torn ligament in his left thumb. Currently they have Tolbert on the 15-day DL but with that kind of trauma, it should be anticipated that Tolbert will miss more time then just the two weeks. As LaValle notes, the Twins system is depleted in middle infielders. Luke Hughes and Matt Macri are both recovering from injuries of their own while journeyman infielder Chris Basak isn't performing to snuff (.221/.309/.337 in 86 at-bats). Aside from reaching down to grab Hughes from New Britain, the Twins also had Trevor Plouffe and Steven Tolleson hitting .290/.338/.427 and .302/.408/.519 respectively. Tolleson had a rough stretch where he was batting .139 after a 0-for-19 mid-April slump. Since then he has raised his average to .302 and was named Eastern League player of the week (May 11th). Instead of taking a gamble on the 22-year-old and 24-year-old raw energy prospects at double-A, the Twins opted for the 34-year-old Howie Clark who is batting .240/.303/.354 while playing 26 games at second base. Clark is a career .282/.356/.402 minor league hitter and in 335 major league plate appearances, Clark has hit .262/.331/.354 with Toronto and Baltimore.

* Because the Twins recalled Alexi Casilla to replace the injured Nick Punto as the spare utility part, Rochester was so thin that the Twins picked up the 24-year-old Sergio Santos from the Toronto Blue Jays. Santos has spent his minor league career split between the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays organization. Santos played the majority of the 2008 season at triple-A Syracuse logging 224 innings at third base committing 5 errors (.906 fielding percentage) in that duration. Last year while with the double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats, Santos hit 20 home runs in 479 at-bats and slugged .477. A career .249/.307/.396 minor league hitter, the logic behind acquiring Santos is strictly a roster-filler.

* Livan Hernandez, 2nd in the American League with 9 home runs surrendered, will have to work hard to keep the ball in the park at Coors. Over his career, Hernandez has tossed 74.1 innings and give up 11 home runs and has a 6.78 era there. Looking to continue providing the Twins with wins so long as the offense continues to provide it (6.63 runs per game), and Hernandez might be able to assist in that department. He is one of the few Twins pitchers that is novice with a bat. In 887 career plate appearances, Hernandez has hit 9 home runs with 73 rbis and maintains a career .232/.241/.314 batting line.

* Twins face the touted Gregory Reynolds, the Rockies 1st round draft pick in 2006. Armed with a 90.7 mph fastball and a 78 mph curve (a 12 mph difference) the 6'7", 220-lb Reynolds made a rapid climb from high-A ball in 2006 to triple-A to begin this season to being called up to the big club. Reynolds has only logged 133 innings in the minors carrying a 2.98 era and 1.20 whip. His peripheral numbers are not overwhelming as indicated by a 14.6% strike out rate but he throws strikes as highlighted by his low 5.8% walk rate.

Notebook Dump

Game: Blue Jays 3, Twinks 2 (11 innings)

Box Score

Record: 20-20

Place: 2^nd, 1.5 gb

* There is plenty of indication that the Twins lost these games by their own boneheadery notably base-running gaffs, overthrows and strange managerial options (Casilla? Really?), but don’t forget to give credit to the Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff, possibly the best in the American League. Jesse Litsch, Roy Halladay and Dustin McGowen combined with an average Game Score of 52 in those three games – Halladay was by far the worst of the three by giving up 4 runs in 6.2 innings yet he still struck out 8 and didn’t issue a walk. The Blue Jay bullpen only gave up 2 earned runs. On the whole, the staff limited the Twins to 2-for-19 (.105) with runners in scoring position.

* Souhan picks on the obvious, power outage by Delmon Young, Mike Lamb and Joe Mauer without stating that the numbers are down across the board in the American League. Young isn't that far removed from his production through the first 40 games last year. In 167 plate appearances with the Devil Rays in 2007 Young hit 6 home runs, 6 doubles, drove in 22 runs and hit .244/.287/.397 while striking out 35 times and walking 10. Through the first 40 games in 2008, Young has 162 plate appearances with 3 doubles, 1 triple, no home runs and has driven in 12. The power is down though he is getting on base more hitting .263/.309/.296, walking 9 times and striking out nine times fewer. Sure the power isn't there yet but it is only a matter of time before it starts clicking.

* I thought it was the more memorable of the Twins commercials to date and I have found myself actually singing the lyrics on occasion to anyone within earshot's dismay, but the NY Times Bats Blog considers it a “goofy commercial” (true) with “terrible pitching-centric lyrics” (debatable). Okay, I still don't understand the Crain-Rincon part where they sing: "You need outs? We get you more." Is that what is said? "More"?

* The Ballad of Lenny Faedo. I love thinking about the bad-old days, thanks to Tony, The Killer and Carew for reminding us.

* Speaking of dark times in the Twins history, tomorrow is the 10-year anniversary of David Wells’ perfect game (a Game Score of 98) over the Minnesota Twins at Yankee Stadium. If you looked at that day’s lineup, one might be inclined to consider it a perfect-game waiting to happen. Surprisingly enough, Twins starter Latroy Hawkins actually threw fairly well. Over the course of seven innings, Hawkins struck out 5 and didn’t walk anyone. Unfortunately for Hawkins though the Twins offense were nowhere near touching the slightly hungover Wells (11 strikeouts) and once Bernie Williams, after hitting a double to lead off the 2^nd inning, scored on a Hawkins wild pitch to Jorge Posada the game was all but over. This wasn’t an uncommon occurrence as Hawkins who was 9^th in the majors with 10 wild pitches that season. Late in the 4^th Bernie deposited a pitch into the seats as well just to make sure the Twins wouldn't get any designs on sneaking in a run. Williams, who went three for three that game, scored three of the four runs.

* Seth Speaks has a good interview with Brian Dinkelman that you should read. This past winter, I spent time analyzing the Twins minor league system to determine who had the highest increase in walk rate. Dinkelman, who went from a walk rate of 4.7% in 2006 to a walk-rate of 11.5% in 2007, had the largest increase among players with regular playing time in the system. The impressive part is that he did this while ascending levels too; the majority tends to better themselves after an initial year at one level. In 2006 he had 211 plate appearances with Elizabethton in the Appalachian Rookie League where he walked 10 times. The following year Dinkelman split 570 plate appearances between low-A Beloit and high-A Ft Myers where he walked 66 times. This 11.5% walk rate led to an on-base percentage of .367. As I had mentioned in December when I originally wrote the piece, Dinkelman faces the problem of being older than his competition. This age discrepancy often makes people question the validity of a prospect’s ability - meaning that Dinkelman hasn’t been challenged yet. This season, placed again back at high-A Ft. Myers he has replicated his numbers (11.8% walk rate) but also has lowered his strike out rate (from 13.5% in 07 to 8.2% currently). What’s more is that in 170 plate appearances he has a 24% line drive rate resulting a .319/.417/.438 batting line, significantly better than his first season in the Florida State League’s batting line of .255/.356/.389. The problem is that Dinkelman, now 24, is two years older than the average batter in the league (22.9) and a year older than the pitching (23.4). If the Twins are serious about Dinkelman, once they promote Luke Hughes to Rochester (which should happen quite soon) they should insert Dinkelman into Hughes’s New Britain roster spot.

* Vanquish any concern that once existed about sneaking Garrett Jones through the waivers at the end of spring training. As it stands right now, Jones is batting .177/.229/.300 in his 144 plate appearances. His three home runs are overshadowed by the fact that he is not hitting the ball squarely. His line drive rate is at 12% while he is hitting groundballs in excess of 50%. Yes he has shown that he has a strong swing, belting 126 career minor league home runs in 3,127 at-bats and maintaining a .434 career slugging percentage but his near 800 career strikeouts was a detriment to his on-base percentage (.301 career obp). Ultimately he is probably on his swansong with the Twins organization as plenty of talent is amassing in double-A and high-A.

* How many times will Bert Blyleven mention Coors Light during the Rockies series? Over-under?

2008: 1st Quarter Review

A quarter of the season has passed us by and the Twins rest uncomfortably in second place of American League Central, trailing the charging Cleveland Indians by a half-game. A year ago through 40 games the Twins were 18-22, 7 games back of the division leading Cleveland Indians following a 0-2 Johan Santana loss to the Indians and Fausto Carmona. Oddly enough, in 2006 the Twins were 17-23 and found themselves nine and a half games behind the Detroit Tigers after a 0-2 Johan Santana loss to the Tigers and flame-throwing Justin Verlander. Obviously both 2007 and 2006 yielded two completely different results even though record-wise both teams seemed to be riding the same track. The former squad finished 79-83, 17 games behind the Cleveland Indians, while the latter finished 96-66, first in division by one game. Nevertheless winning early puts yourself in a better position as the season progresses.

What we can say is that this ballclub is both overachieving and underachieving simultaneously. Using the Pythagorean Theorem the Twins should be 19-20, muddling around third in the division. Thankfully baseball doesn't follow mathematical logic. Instead the Twins have managed to steal a wins resulting in the 20-19 record rather than sinking to the bottom of the division with the Kansas City Royals. There are several key factors for why the Twins have started strong ranging from the starting rotation to filling in positions with the right people. Conversely, several decisions such as recalling Francisco Liriano too soon and the underproduction of several players have led to the Twins losing some critical games as well.

Gone right:

* Livan Hernandez. I wrote prior to the season that I was not in support of this signing due to a) Hernandez’s Opponents Batting Record including the National League leading home runs given up, b) the fact that he hasn’t pitched in the American League and c) the Twins have some outstanding pitchers in the system that should get the opportunity. The signing, to me, reeked of a Ramon Ortiz repeat. Now after a quarter of a season of starts, Hernandez sits at 6-1 with a 3.90 era and the Twins are 8-1 in his starts. Most importantly, he has managed to digest 57 innings as the rotation has gone through the ebb and flow of injuries to Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey in addition to the ill-prepared Francisco Liriano, has been a godsend to the Twins. There certainly are signs that the next quarters of the season might not go as smoothly as this first portion considering Hernandez is 2nd in the American League for home runs allowed (9) and hits allowed (72) but he has limited damage by having the 7th best overall base-on-balls per 9 innings (1.72). Credit the Twins offense as well as they are giving him plenty of run support per game (6.62) which helps his record.

* Carlos Gomez in centerfield. In February, I had promoted using Jason Pridie at center strictly because he was the more polished of the minor leagues in competition for the job. Offense aside, I believed that a position as demanding as center requires additional seasoning. Like my assumption of Livan Hernandez, I have been wrong thus far. According to John Dewan's Fielding Bible on Bill James Online, Carlos Gomez is +5 in centerfield leading the Majors in defense at that position making Twins fans say cliche things like "Torii who?" (nobody says that). In 209 inning logged at center Gomez had posted the 10th best revised zone rating (.928) significantly better than the former centerfield (.862) while retrieving 23 balls out-of-zone, good enough for 2nd in the Majors. Gomez's fielding percentage took a ding (.958, last among qualified centerfielders) due to five errors due mostly to inexperience coupled with unbridled enthusiasm for his own arm strengthen (three throwing errors).

* The Emergence of Nick Blackburn. If you just look at the statistics and not the names, you would think that Nick Blackburn and Carlos Silva were interchangeable. The obvious similarity is that they both have a 3-2 record after 8 starts. Blackburn has thrown 50 innings to Silva's 52 however both are ruthlessly efficient (Blackburn uses 3.4 pitches per plate appearance while Silva deploys 3.6) with great control, using a sinking fastball to induce groundballs (Blackburn's 48% to Silva's 45%) while maintaining insanely low walk-rates (4.7% by Blackburn and 5.0% by Silva). Neither strikes that many batters out (Blackburn's 11.6% k% to Silva's 9.1%). But neither gives up too many runs either(Blackburn 4.11 runs per game to Silva's 4.33). The difference is that Blackburn is pitching better (3.38 FIP to Silva's 4.53) with few home runs (2 to 6) but significantly more affordable (The Twins are paying Blackburn league minimum $390,000 while the Mariners are paying Silva $7 million). The Mariners are paying and possibly overpaying for the piece-of-mind that Silva provides thanks to his averaging 170 innings per season however it is safe to say that so far in 2008 the Twins hardly notice the Chief's absence.

* Resigning Joe Nathan. 12 for 12 in save opportunities is why he is paid the big bucks. These aren't your inflated Todd Jones-type saves either. Six of those saves came in games with a one-run lead and another three came with a two-run lead. His most recent outing against Boston where he gave up two runs before recording the save skewed his numbers yet his .239/.271/.261 average with 11 strikeouts in 12 innings in save opportunities.

Gone awry:

* Power outages from Delmon Young and Mike Lamb. Through the first 40 games, both Young and Lamb have failed to hit a home run despite hitting in double-digits last year (13 and 11, respectively). In the American League this absences of home runs with at least 110 plate appearances puts them in the company of such sluggers named Pena Jr, Figgins, Lugo and Grudzielanek – guys who hit a combined 19 home runs last year. The only legitimate power threat without a home run is the Indians Victor Martinez who hit 25 home runs last year and has not yet hit a dinger in 145 plate appearances this year (but still has a .407 slugging average). When the Twins signed Houston Astros Mike Lamb during the offseason, they did so under the premise that Lamb would continue his power production at the Metrodome. Part of the Twins 2007 problem was that the offensive productivity was far from a power source in positions that were historically filled by sluggers, such as third base. In 2007, the Twins third basemen collectively hit 6 home runs and slugged .323 (lower than the shortstop at .334). Presenting Lamb with the possibility of 500 plate appearances in a season could result in 15-20 from a third base position if you extrapolate his numbers. While in Houston in 2007, Lamb hit 11 home runs in 353 plate appearances (3.1% hr%). To date in 2008, Lamb has not hit well – power or no power. In 117 plate appearances Lamb has hit .231/.259/.287 with six extra base hits. Young, meanwhile, is slugging .299 – down more than 100 points from his .408 season last year. His Hitting for Power, according to the Bill James Online, is in the 8th percentile among MLB right fielders as his isolated slugging average, it hovers at .035. He has just four extra base hits (10% xbh) in 154 plate appearances. Some claim that this lack of home runs is a result of Young trying to go opposite field yet in 2007, 2 of his home runs were to right and 2 went to left. The bottomline is that Young is failing to get elevation on the ball. He has hit groundballs on 63% of his balls in play and is creating line drives 13% of the time. That means he has hit flyballs in only 24% of the time.
I’d be inclined to add Joe Mauer to this list since the media rags on Joey Jo-Jo for not reaching the seats. On one hand his isolated slugging average is .090 and according to Bill James Online he is in the 36th percentile for Hitting for Power among MLB catchers but on the other he is slugging .421 with a 25% extra base hit rate resulting in 7 win shares.

* All we need is just a little patience. The team has drawn just 88 walks, 27th in the majors. Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Branden Harris have 42 of them. Our lead-off hitter, Carlos Gomez, has more strikeouts (39) than last year’s whiff king Jack Cust (36) but Cust has 32 walks while Gomez has had patience enough to walk just five times. One of this biggest, however, came in the bottom of the 9th of the May 9th game where Gomez was able to coax a walk off of Jonathan Papelbon leading to a steal of second and ultimately the winning run scored on Mike Lamb’s bloop single. Speaking of Lamb, he has walked just 5 times in 115 plate appearances. Last season Jason Kubel walked in 10% of his plate appearances. This season he had obtained just four free passes - a 2% walk rate.

* Injuries. Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Pat Neshek, Nick Punto, Adam Everett, Michael Cuddyer...Neshek, out for the season, is the most disruptive to the team's fabric. Gardenhire said that they will use Guerrier, Crain, Reyes and Rincon to bridge the bullpen from the 7th inning to the 9th - patching the hole in the 8th inning that Neshek's injury has created. Next to losing Joe Nathan for the season, the Twins could not have lost anyone more vital. Bullpen stability has a very strong correlation to winning. Look no further than the Detroit Tigers who have lost critical parts of the pen and are now loaded with high-caliber offensive talent but completely depleted when it comes to holding a late innings lead.

* The re-introduction of Francisco Liriano. 10.3 agonizing innings to date. 13-to-7 walks-to-strikeouts ratio. Thankfully his less-than-an-inning performance in Oakland wasn't televised. Five hits, six earned runs, three walks and no strikeouts...ouch.

* To platoon or not platoon? Yes, the Free Jason Kubel movement was full of feelgoodery and backpatting (myself including) but ultimately his futility against left-handed pitching got the best of him. Gardenhire provided Kubel with 31 plate appearances against southpaws that lead to a miniscule batting line of .143/.194/.143 with 9 strikeouts. So move Monroe into the DH slot against lefties? Craig Monroe hasn't handled lefties at all either this season hitting .148/.207/.148 in 29 plate appearances (but as a career .269/.315/.483 hitter Monroe deserves to face the lefties). The problem is that both Kubel and Monroe have been crushing righties. In 49 plate appearances against right-handed pitching Monroe has hit .348/.388/.739 with four home runs. Kubel, given twice as many plate appearances against righties, has hit .256/.261/.467.