Best Laid Plans.

According to the Hardball Times the Twins infielders are 12 out of 14 teams in the American League in revised zone rating at .765.

	Infield RZR	Infield Out Of Zone
1) Oakland Athletics	.831	46
2) Toronto Blue Jays	.817	65
12) Minnesota Twins	.765	31
13) Detroit Tigers	.756	51
14) Seattle Mariners	.753	61
League Average	.784	51

Only the aging Detroit Tigers (.756) and the American League West cellar-dwelling Seattle Mariners (.753) infields have found themselves executing less plays than the Minnesota Twins. This, of course, is reasonable in the case of the Tigers who have played musical position with Miguel Cabrera and Carlos Guillen at the corner bases. The Tigers started the stone-legged Cabrera at third to begin the season. It was there in 116 innings that Cabrera held a RZR of .600, bad enough to incite Jim Leyland to swap him with Carlos Guillen at first base. Moved across the diamond Guillen's difference was negligible as he had produced at RZR of .667 in 143 innings. Out west the Seattle Mariners have the putrid Richie Sexson (.673 RZR) who is playing first as Jose Vidro mans the designated hitter role. Across the field from Sexson, Andre Beltre is having a substandard season as well (.651 RZR) already committing 8 errors in 386 innings however he has gloved 29 balls out of zone, by far the most by a third baseman.

Though the Twins have completed more anticipated plays than just the Tigers or Mariners, it is the unexpected ones that have been absent. As a unit, the Twins infield has managed only to track down 31 balls out of zone. Even Detroit (51 ooz) and Seattle (61) are outpacing the Twins. The 31 plays made out of zone is 33 less than the league leading Tampa Bay Rays and 20 less than the league average. Being able to track an additional 20-30 balls in plays would have eliminated 20 to 30 base-runners which of course lead to subsequent runs. Limiting opponents' presence on base also benefits the Twins pitching staff who have the highest home runs per game allowed (1.1) in the American League. As obvious as it is, multi-run home runs do more damage than solo home runs.

As bad as Guillen, Cabrera and Beltre have been, Lamb by far is the most inefficient at third. At the plate, Lamb has a .518 ops. Comparatively, Beltre (.760), Guillen (.790) and Cabrera (.824) are all carrying their weight at the plate. At the plate as he continues failing to live up to lofty offensive expectations, but on the field he exacerbates the problem. Lamb had 75 balls within his zone and has only been able to convert outs on 42 of them. Consider that the current Fielding Bible from Bill James Online has Lamb is currently ranked 32 of all starting third basemen. Based upon the Plus/Minus grading system, Lamb is graded as a -7 when making plays to his right (towards the foul line), +1 with balls straight on and -1 ranging to his left (towards short). This isn't exactly news as the Twins understood what they had purchased. MLB.com's Kelly Theiser wrote in January 2008 that "the questions concerning Lamb's range at third were enough to have some teams back off pursuing the veteran for a starting role this winter. Some teams, like the Rangers, weren't even looking at him for the position at all, but rather as an option for first base." There are several similar internal candidates that could replicate the same defense as Lamb such as Brian Buscher and Matt Macri (or at least provide more offense) but neither of those two candidates play exceptional defense.

The contract offered to Adam Everett came with plenty of of unknowns. For starters, the Twins would have no idea how a 31-year-old shortstop would recover from a broken leg. Now Everett is experiencing shoulder problems diminishing his ability to throw across the diamond, which makes him particularly vulnerable during the double-play or ranging to his right (compensating for Lamb's lack of range). The Fielding Bible has indicated that Everett has had 20 opportunities to turn a double-play and has only done so in 10 of those occasions (.500, ranked 28th among shortstops). Ranging to his right, Everett has a -3 grading making the hole between third and short exposed when Lamb and Everett are on the field. The Twins, however, cannot go to the well to replace Adam Everett with a Jason Bartlett as they did to remove Juan Castro in 2006 - there isn't one there, at least one not major league ready (sorry, Alexi).

"I hope we don't have to deal with something like that again," Manager Ron Gardenhire said after Sunday's game against the Rockies. "Missing pop flies and failures to get runners in and executing, the whole package. A disappointing baseball game... Dropping throws to first base. I don't know how you prepare for all those things. We're not used to seeing those things. It's embarrassing for our organization and for our fans." Gardenhire had designs on relocating Brendan Harris to third and inserting Matt Tolbert at second thereby upgrading the defensive alignment. This, of course, was thrown out the window when Tolbert dislodged his left thumb from his hand so the Twins are forced to soldier on with their original plan.

This development, in spite of Gardy's quote, should not be a surprise to no one in this organization. During the onset of the season the idea was that Lamb and Harris were brought in to upgrade the lineup: high-quality defense would be conceded to adding runs at the plate. Everett was going to be the sure-handed glove to bridge third and second, that any offense that he would generate would be a bonus. With this game plan in mind the Twins entered 2008 hoping to score more runs than they defend. To date, this plan has yet to come to fruition.

Notebook Dump (5.17.08)

Game: Twinks 4, Rox 2

Box Score

Record: 21-20

Place: 2nd, 0.5 back

* Nick Blackburn continues to show poise of a much more experienced pitcher, tossing seven innings at Coors and limiting the Rockies to six hits and two runs. Finishing with a Game Score of 63, Blackburn struck out five Rockies and did not allow anyone to reach on a walk. Blackburn also went 1-3 at the plate after slipping a chopper between third baseman Garrett Atkins and Clint Barmes.

* Delmon Young had his 13th multi-hit game of the season however this was the first time he has had a multi-extra base hit game all season after his two doubles. Going into the Colorado series, Young was batting .263/.309/.296. The 3-4 night lifted his numbers to .276/.319/.321. Over the last five games Young is 7-for-23, batting .304/.360/.391. Even without the power, it is hard to sit him. After committing a fatal base running gaff against Toronto when he rounded the base too hard only to be thrown out by Brad Wilkerson from mid-right field when catcher Greg Zaun trailed Young up the line. His overzealous basepath behavior ended up killing a potential rally. Friday Young made a wise decision, tagging up from second to third on a Mike Lamb flyball to the left-center gap. With Adam Everett up and Nick Blackburn in the hole with one-out Young had enough presence to realize that scoring from second would be difficult-to-impossible. Everett came into the game batting .190 and Blackburn just had his first at-bat since high school a few innings prior. When Everett lofted a deep flyball to left-fielder Ryan Spilborghs, Young trotted home resulting in the difference making run. "That was a good bit of baserunning," Twins manager Ron Gardenhire said. "He read it, got back, tagged up and got there."

* MEDIC! Matt Tolbert is the latest Twins causality with a torn ligament in his left thumb. Currently they have Tolbert on the 15-day DL but with that kind of trauma, it should be anticipated that Tolbert will miss more time then just the two weeks. As LaValle notes, the Twins system is depleted in middle infielders. Luke Hughes and Matt Macri are both recovering from injuries of their own while journeyman infielder Chris Basak isn't performing to snuff (.221/.309/.337 in 86 at-bats). Aside from reaching down to grab Hughes from New Britain, the Twins also had Trevor Plouffe and Steven Tolleson hitting .290/.338/.427 and .302/.408/.519 respectively. Tolleson had a rough stretch where he was batting .139 after a 0-for-19 mid-April slump. Since then he has raised his average to .302 and was named Eastern League player of the week (May 11th). Instead of taking a gamble on the 22-year-old and 24-year-old raw energy prospects at double-A, the Twins opted for the 34-year-old Howie Clark who is batting .240/.303/.354 while playing 26 games at second base. Clark is a career .282/.356/.402 minor league hitter and in 335 major league plate appearances, Clark has hit .262/.331/.354 with Toronto and Baltimore.

* Because the Twins recalled Alexi Casilla to replace the injured Nick Punto as the spare utility part, Rochester was so thin that the Twins picked up the 24-year-old Sergio Santos from the Toronto Blue Jays. Santos has spent his minor league career split between the Diamondbacks and Blue Jays organization. Santos played the majority of the 2008 season at triple-A Syracuse logging 224 innings at third base committing 5 errors (.906 fielding percentage) in that duration. Last year while with the double-A New Hampshire Fisher Cats, Santos hit 20 home runs in 479 at-bats and slugged .477. A career .249/.307/.396 minor league hitter, the logic behind acquiring Santos is strictly a roster-filler.

* Livan Hernandez, 2nd in the American League with 9 home runs surrendered, will have to work hard to keep the ball in the park at Coors. Over his career, Hernandez has tossed 74.1 innings and give up 11 home runs and has a 6.78 era there. Looking to continue providing the Twins with wins so long as the offense continues to provide it (6.63 runs per game), and Hernandez might be able to assist in that department. He is one of the few Twins pitchers that is novice with a bat. In 887 career plate appearances, Hernandez has hit 9 home runs with 73 rbis and maintains a career .232/.241/.314 batting line.

* Twins face the touted Gregory Reynolds, the Rockies 1st round draft pick in 2006. Armed with a 90.7 mph fastball and a 78 mph curve (a 12 mph difference) the 6'7", 220-lb Reynolds made a rapid climb from high-A ball in 2006 to triple-A to begin this season to being called up to the big club. Reynolds has only logged 133 innings in the minors carrying a 2.98 era and 1.20 whip. His peripheral numbers are not overwhelming as indicated by a 14.6% strike out rate but he throws strikes as highlighted by his low 5.8% walk rate.

Notebook Dump

Game: Blue Jays 3, Twinks 2 (11 innings)

Box Score

Record: 20-20

Place: 2^nd, 1.5 gb

* There is plenty of indication that the Twins lost these games by their own boneheadery notably base-running gaffs, overthrows and strange managerial options (Casilla? Really?), but don’t forget to give credit to the Toronto Blue Jays pitching staff, possibly the best in the American League. Jesse Litsch, Roy Halladay and Dustin McGowen combined with an average Game Score of 52 in those three games – Halladay was by far the worst of the three by giving up 4 runs in 6.2 innings yet he still struck out 8 and didn’t issue a walk. The Blue Jay bullpen only gave up 2 earned runs. On the whole, the staff limited the Twins to 2-for-19 (.105) with runners in scoring position.

* Souhan picks on the obvious, power outage by Delmon Young, Mike Lamb and Joe Mauer without stating that the numbers are down across the board in the American League. Young isn't that far removed from his production through the first 40 games last year. In 167 plate appearances with the Devil Rays in 2007 Young hit 6 home runs, 6 doubles, drove in 22 runs and hit .244/.287/.397 while striking out 35 times and walking 10. Through the first 40 games in 2008, Young has 162 plate appearances with 3 doubles, 1 triple, no home runs and has driven in 12. The power is down though he is getting on base more hitting .263/.309/.296, walking 9 times and striking out nine times fewer. Sure the power isn't there yet but it is only a matter of time before it starts clicking.

* I thought it was the more memorable of the Twins commercials to date and I have found myself actually singing the lyrics on occasion to anyone within earshot's dismay, but the NY Times Bats Blog considers it a “goofy commercial” (true) with “terrible pitching-centric lyrics” (debatable). Okay, I still don't understand the Crain-Rincon part where they sing: "You need outs? We get you more." Is that what is said? "More"?

* The Ballad of Lenny Faedo. I love thinking about the bad-old days, thanks to Tony, The Killer and Carew for reminding us.

* Speaking of dark times in the Twins history, tomorrow is the 10-year anniversary of David Wells’ perfect game (a Game Score of 98) over the Minnesota Twins at Yankee Stadium. If you looked at that day’s lineup, one might be inclined to consider it a perfect-game waiting to happen. Surprisingly enough, Twins starter Latroy Hawkins actually threw fairly well. Over the course of seven innings, Hawkins struck out 5 and didn’t walk anyone. Unfortunately for Hawkins though the Twins offense were nowhere near touching the slightly hungover Wells (11 strikeouts) and once Bernie Williams, after hitting a double to lead off the 2^nd inning, scored on a Hawkins wild pitch to Jorge Posada the game was all but over. This wasn’t an uncommon occurrence as Hawkins who was 9^th in the majors with 10 wild pitches that season. Late in the 4^th Bernie deposited a pitch into the seats as well just to make sure the Twins wouldn't get any designs on sneaking in a run. Williams, who went three for three that game, scored three of the four runs.

* Seth Speaks has a good interview with Brian Dinkelman that you should read. This past winter, I spent time analyzing the Twins minor league system to determine who had the highest increase in walk rate. Dinkelman, who went from a walk rate of 4.7% in 2006 to a walk-rate of 11.5% in 2007, had the largest increase among players with regular playing time in the system. The impressive part is that he did this while ascending levels too; the majority tends to better themselves after an initial year at one level. In 2006 he had 211 plate appearances with Elizabethton in the Appalachian Rookie League where he walked 10 times. The following year Dinkelman split 570 plate appearances between low-A Beloit and high-A Ft Myers where he walked 66 times. This 11.5% walk rate led to an on-base percentage of .367. As I had mentioned in December when I originally wrote the piece, Dinkelman faces the problem of being older than his competition. This age discrepancy often makes people question the validity of a prospect’s ability - meaning that Dinkelman hasn’t been challenged yet. This season, placed again back at high-A Ft. Myers he has replicated his numbers (11.8% walk rate) but also has lowered his strike out rate (from 13.5% in 07 to 8.2% currently). What’s more is that in 170 plate appearances he has a 24% line drive rate resulting a .319/.417/.438 batting line, significantly better than his first season in the Florida State League’s batting line of .255/.356/.389. The problem is that Dinkelman, now 24, is two years older than the average batter in the league (22.9) and a year older than the pitching (23.4). If the Twins are serious about Dinkelman, once they promote Luke Hughes to Rochester (which should happen quite soon) they should insert Dinkelman into Hughes’s New Britain roster spot.

* Vanquish any concern that once existed about sneaking Garrett Jones through the waivers at the end of spring training. As it stands right now, Jones is batting .177/.229/.300 in his 144 plate appearances. His three home runs are overshadowed by the fact that he is not hitting the ball squarely. His line drive rate is at 12% while he is hitting groundballs in excess of 50%. Yes he has shown that he has a strong swing, belting 126 career minor league home runs in 3,127 at-bats and maintaining a .434 career slugging percentage but his near 800 career strikeouts was a detriment to his on-base percentage (.301 career obp). Ultimately he is probably on his swansong with the Twins organization as plenty of talent is amassing in double-A and high-A.

* How many times will Bert Blyleven mention Coors Light during the Rockies series? Over-under?

2008: 1st Quarter Review

A quarter of the season has passed us by and the Twins rest uncomfortably in second place of American League Central, trailing the charging Cleveland Indians by a half-game. A year ago through 40 games the Twins were 18-22, 7 games back of the division leading Cleveland Indians following a 0-2 Johan Santana loss to the Indians and Fausto Carmona. Oddly enough, in 2006 the Twins were 17-23 and found themselves nine and a half games behind the Detroit Tigers after a 0-2 Johan Santana loss to the Tigers and flame-throwing Justin Verlander. Obviously both 2007 and 2006 yielded two completely different results even though record-wise both teams seemed to be riding the same track. The former squad finished 79-83, 17 games behind the Cleveland Indians, while the latter finished 96-66, first in division by one game. Nevertheless winning early puts yourself in a better position as the season progresses.

What we can say is that this ballclub is both overachieving and underachieving simultaneously. Using the Pythagorean Theorem the Twins should be 19-20, muddling around third in the division. Thankfully baseball doesn't follow mathematical logic. Instead the Twins have managed to steal a wins resulting in the 20-19 record rather than sinking to the bottom of the division with the Kansas City Royals. There are several key factors for why the Twins have started strong ranging from the starting rotation to filling in positions with the right people. Conversely, several decisions such as recalling Francisco Liriano too soon and the underproduction of several players have led to the Twins losing some critical games as well.

Gone right:

* Livan Hernandez. I wrote prior to the season that I was not in support of this signing due to a) Hernandez’s Opponents Batting Record including the National League leading home runs given up, b) the fact that he hasn’t pitched in the American League and c) the Twins have some outstanding pitchers in the system that should get the opportunity. The signing, to me, reeked of a Ramon Ortiz repeat. Now after a quarter of a season of starts, Hernandez sits at 6-1 with a 3.90 era and the Twins are 8-1 in his starts. Most importantly, he has managed to digest 57 innings as the rotation has gone through the ebb and flow of injuries to Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey in addition to the ill-prepared Francisco Liriano, has been a godsend to the Twins. There certainly are signs that the next quarters of the season might not go as smoothly as this first portion considering Hernandez is 2nd in the American League for home runs allowed (9) and hits allowed (72) but he has limited damage by having the 7th best overall base-on-balls per 9 innings (1.72). Credit the Twins offense as well as they are giving him plenty of run support per game (6.62) which helps his record.

* Carlos Gomez in centerfield. In February, I had promoted using Jason Pridie at center strictly because he was the more polished of the minor leagues in competition for the job. Offense aside, I believed that a position as demanding as center requires additional seasoning. Like my assumption of Livan Hernandez, I have been wrong thus far. According to John Dewan's Fielding Bible on Bill James Online, Carlos Gomez is +5 in centerfield leading the Majors in defense at that position making Twins fans say cliche things like "Torii who?" (nobody says that). In 209 inning logged at center Gomez had posted the 10th best revised zone rating (.928) significantly better than the former centerfield (.862) while retrieving 23 balls out-of-zone, good enough for 2nd in the Majors. Gomez's fielding percentage took a ding (.958, last among qualified centerfielders) due to five errors due mostly to inexperience coupled with unbridled enthusiasm for his own arm strengthen (three throwing errors).

* The Emergence of Nick Blackburn. If you just look at the statistics and not the names, you would think that Nick Blackburn and Carlos Silva were interchangeable. The obvious similarity is that they both have a 3-2 record after 8 starts. Blackburn has thrown 50 innings to Silva's 52 however both are ruthlessly efficient (Blackburn uses 3.4 pitches per plate appearance while Silva deploys 3.6) with great control, using a sinking fastball to induce groundballs (Blackburn's 48% to Silva's 45%) while maintaining insanely low walk-rates (4.7% by Blackburn and 5.0% by Silva). Neither strikes that many batters out (Blackburn's 11.6% k% to Silva's 9.1%). But neither gives up too many runs either(Blackburn 4.11 runs per game to Silva's 4.33). The difference is that Blackburn is pitching better (3.38 FIP to Silva's 4.53) with few home runs (2 to 6) but significantly more affordable (The Twins are paying Blackburn league minimum $390,000 while the Mariners are paying Silva $7 million). The Mariners are paying and possibly overpaying for the piece-of-mind that Silva provides thanks to his averaging 170 innings per season however it is safe to say that so far in 2008 the Twins hardly notice the Chief's absence.

* Resigning Joe Nathan. 12 for 12 in save opportunities is why he is paid the big bucks. These aren't your inflated Todd Jones-type saves either. Six of those saves came in games with a one-run lead and another three came with a two-run lead. His most recent outing against Boston where he gave up two runs before recording the save skewed his numbers yet his .239/.271/.261 average with 11 strikeouts in 12 innings in save opportunities.

Gone awry:

* Power outages from Delmon Young and Mike Lamb. Through the first 40 games, both Young and Lamb have failed to hit a home run despite hitting in double-digits last year (13 and 11, respectively). In the American League this absences of home runs with at least 110 plate appearances puts them in the company of such sluggers named Pena Jr, Figgins, Lugo and Grudzielanek – guys who hit a combined 19 home runs last year. The only legitimate power threat without a home run is the Indians Victor Martinez who hit 25 home runs last year and has not yet hit a dinger in 145 plate appearances this year (but still has a .407 slugging average). When the Twins signed Houston Astros Mike Lamb during the offseason, they did so under the premise that Lamb would continue his power production at the Metrodome. Part of the Twins 2007 problem was that the offensive productivity was far from a power source in positions that were historically filled by sluggers, such as third base. In 2007, the Twins third basemen collectively hit 6 home runs and slugged .323 (lower than the shortstop at .334). Presenting Lamb with the possibility of 500 plate appearances in a season could result in 15-20 from a third base position if you extrapolate his numbers. While in Houston in 2007, Lamb hit 11 home runs in 353 plate appearances (3.1% hr%). To date in 2008, Lamb has not hit well – power or no power. In 117 plate appearances Lamb has hit .231/.259/.287 with six extra base hits. Young, meanwhile, is slugging .299 – down more than 100 points from his .408 season last year. His Hitting for Power, according to the Bill James Online, is in the 8th percentile among MLB right fielders as his isolated slugging average, it hovers at .035. He has just four extra base hits (10% xbh) in 154 plate appearances. Some claim that this lack of home runs is a result of Young trying to go opposite field yet in 2007, 2 of his home runs were to right and 2 went to left. The bottomline is that Young is failing to get elevation on the ball. He has hit groundballs on 63% of his balls in play and is creating line drives 13% of the time. That means he has hit flyballs in only 24% of the time.
I’d be inclined to add Joe Mauer to this list since the media rags on Joey Jo-Jo for not reaching the seats. On one hand his isolated slugging average is .090 and according to Bill James Online he is in the 36th percentile for Hitting for Power among MLB catchers but on the other he is slugging .421 with a 25% extra base hit rate resulting in 7 win shares.

* All we need is just a little patience. The team has drawn just 88 walks, 27th in the majors. Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau and Branden Harris have 42 of them. Our lead-off hitter, Carlos Gomez, has more strikeouts (39) than last year’s whiff king Jack Cust (36) but Cust has 32 walks while Gomez has had patience enough to walk just five times. One of this biggest, however, came in the bottom of the 9th of the May 9th game where Gomez was able to coax a walk off of Jonathan Papelbon leading to a steal of second and ultimately the winning run scored on Mike Lamb’s bloop single. Speaking of Lamb, he has walked just 5 times in 115 plate appearances. Last season Jason Kubel walked in 10% of his plate appearances. This season he had obtained just four free passes - a 2% walk rate.

* Injuries. Scott Baker, Kevin Slowey, Pat Neshek, Nick Punto, Adam Everett, Michael Cuddyer...Neshek, out for the season, is the most disruptive to the team's fabric. Gardenhire said that they will use Guerrier, Crain, Reyes and Rincon to bridge the bullpen from the 7th inning to the 9th - patching the hole in the 8th inning that Neshek's injury has created. Next to losing Joe Nathan for the season, the Twins could not have lost anyone more vital. Bullpen stability has a very strong correlation to winning. Look no further than the Detroit Tigers who have lost critical parts of the pen and are now loaded with high-caliber offensive talent but completely depleted when it comes to holding a late innings lead.

* The re-introduction of Francisco Liriano. 10.3 agonizing innings to date. 13-to-7 walks-to-strikeouts ratio. Thankfully his less-than-an-inning performance in Oakland wasn't televised. Five hits, six earned runs, three walks and no strikeouts...ouch.

* To platoon or not platoon? Yes, the Free Jason Kubel movement was full of feelgoodery and backpatting (myself including) but ultimately his futility against left-handed pitching got the best of him. Gardenhire provided Kubel with 31 plate appearances against southpaws that lead to a miniscule batting line of .143/.194/.143 with 9 strikeouts. So move Monroe into the DH slot against lefties? Craig Monroe hasn't handled lefties at all either this season hitting .148/.207/.148 in 29 plate appearances (but as a career .269/.315/.483 hitter Monroe deserves to face the lefties). The problem is that both Kubel and Monroe have been crushing righties. In 49 plate appearances against right-handed pitching Monroe has hit .348/.388/.739 with four home runs. Kubel, given twice as many plate appearances against righties, has hit .256/.261/.467.

Twins Survive Boston

Twinks 7, Red Sux 3 (Box Score)

“I felt good in the ’pen. I felt my fastball was good, but I guess it wasn’t as good as I expected or wanted it to be,” said Buchholz to the Providence Journal. “It might have been that I was trying to throw too hard, like I do sometimes.* Then I pulled a few of them (wide of the plate). I have to find that happy medium. I was leaving pitches up and they got hit. And when I went to my off-speed stuff they were all over it. It seemed like they were right on every first-pitch changeup."

*I don't know if there are any 30 Rock viewers out there but on last week's episode Jenna Merony, the ditsy, self-involved blonde actress on the show-within-the-show TGS with Tracey Jordan, admitted to loving to use a 'backdoor brag'. This, she said, was the act of "Sneaking something wonderful about yourself in everyday conversation". The example she uses is "Its hard for me to watch American Idol because I have perfect pitch." Buchholz saying "I was trying to throw too hard, like I do sometimes" is vaguely similar to this, as if he were trying to remind everyone of his great velocity. Still, when you sport more than four necklaces at a give time and you are not the lead singer of Rush, you are chalked full of douchbaggery. I would bet he pops more than two collars at any given time.

According to pitch f/x data, Buchholz didn't throw that many first-pitch changeups. At least not to any of the Twins batters in the first through the fourth where he started only Brendan Harris and Michael Cuddyer with changeups previously. The quote is mostly likely Buchholz recalling his last three batters (Michael Cuddyer, Craig Monroe and Delmon Young) in which he threw four pitches - three of them change-ups - and all resulted in hits. Cuddyer thwacked a line-drive up the middle on a 80-mph change, sending Joe Mauer to 3rd. Craig Monroe was started with a 82-mph slider in the dirt but laced a double on the ensuing 79-mph changeup scoring Mauer and Cuddyer from first. At this juncture in the 5th, it is six to three Twins with Monroe on second and only one out. In the last two at-bats, three pitches were thrown and two of them were changeups. With this in mind, catcher Jason Varitek and his battery-mate, 23-year-old Buchholz set to work on Delmon Young stubbornly determined to prove that Clay's changeup works. Young proved the Boston duo wrong, sending his first-pitch 77-mph changeup through the middle to score Monroe, effectively ending Buchholz's night.

The Twins are finishing what is possibly the hardest four-game stretch in the next two weeks with a 3-1 record. In the last ten game prior to Monday night's victory, the Twins offense was hitting .276/.333/.409 while scoring 60 runs during a stretch when they went 7-3. The pitching faired well with a 4.09 era though allowing a batting line of .281/.334/.449 against three of the better hitting clubs in the American League: Chicago, Detroit and Boston. In from Cleveland comes Toronto, a 18-22 ball club that is every bit of a disappointment in the American League East as the Tampa Bay Rays are a pleasant surprise. In the Blue Jays' most recent ten games prior to the doubleheader against Cleveland on Monday, Toronto has hit .265/.316/.395 while scoring just 25 runs but winning six out of ten thanks to a sharp pitching staff, one that limited opponents to just 38 runs and a .202/.265/322 batting line.

This will certainly present a challenge to the Twins lineup who must remain persistant. Roy Halladay will be a tough equation to solve. In his career against the Twins he has pitched 64.1 innings with a 6-0 record in 8 starts thanks to a 2.66 era and 45 strikeouts. He will be matching up against Boof Bonser on Wednesday night.