AL Central Update

The 2008 season, still in its infancy, has seen numerous surprises in the American League Central alone. Detroit, instead of walloping opponents as predicted during the hot stove league, has sputtered to a 1-8 start while dropping its first 7 games. This incited manager Jim Leyland (always a colorful quote) to quell everybody in Motown's fears of duplicating their 2003 season which started in similar fashion by saying, "I haven't got the answer as to why we're not hitting," he said, "If I did, I would have told the guys. If it's puzzling to me that we're not hitting, it must be really puzzling to you (the media). You guys have been calling them (the Tigers) 'murderers' row' since spring. I don't give a (expletive) about the start." Conversely, Kansas City has gotten off to an equally surprising start, which began with a sweep of the Tigers at Comerica. In as much as the Tigers starting pitching has been failing to provide quality starts, the Kansas City Royals staff has thrown copious amount of high quality innings (a baffling revelation is comparison to previous Royals teams). Through the first 8 games of the season, Detroit's rotation has averaged a Game Score of 43 while the Royals have averaged Game Score of 55. More importantly, while the Tigers offense has only offer a mere 2.68 runs of support, the Royals have been bolstering the solid pitching with 4.00 runs of support per game. Meanwhile the rest of the division - the Twins, Sox, and Indians - have jockeyed for middle ground.

Kansas City Royals

• Joe Posnanski continue's his man-crush on Brian Bannister, analyzing his first start of the season against Detroit, which resulted in a Game Score of 77. His second game came against the Yankees at the home opener at Kauffman where he made 5 innings and gave up 5 hits while striking out 6 and walking 4 but also recieved his second victory of the year. In three match-ups against Alex Rodriguez, Bannister struck him out looking all three times. "He made some great pitches -- there's not much you can do," Rodriguez said. "I can't really look back and say those were pitches I could have hit or crushed; perhaps maybe just fouled off. Today, he was much better than I was -- give him a lot of credit."
• Maybe it is the rube in me, but I like the fact that the Royals have added Garth Brooks's "Friends in Low Places" as a sing-a-long similar to Boston's "Sweet Caroline".
• Nomo returned. Not graciously I might add.

Chicago White Sox

• I find it interesting when people call something "the Twins model". Chicago GM Kenny Williams has been comparing his building of his 2008 club to that of the 2003-2004 Twins which had AJ, Torii, Denny and Dougie, or as Williams describes them as "grinders": “You know, this job is one in which you never stop learning,’’ Williams explained on Monday, hours before the Sox rallied to beat Minnesota 7-4. “Early on, I thought throwing talent at the wall would bring a championship, and for three or four years, on paper we had the best team in the division. There were at least two of those years where Minnesota won the division, and then came out and even said, ‘That team there [the Sox] has more talent than us.’ That really made me rethink some of the things we were doing, the approach we were taking.’’
• Like Detroit's Brandon Inge, Joe Crede went into spring training considered an expendable third baseman but has completely hit the cover off of the ball. ''Joe always seems that when the game is on the line, he's 'Mr. Clutch,''' Guillen said following Crede's broken bat grand-slam off of Pat Neshek. ''He's a cold-blooded player and always seems to come through.'' Crede already has 3 home runs in just 32 at-bats this season compared to 2007 when he had 4 total home runs in 167 at-bats while hitting .406/.429/.781 in that duration.
• Through the first eight games, the White Sox have been carried by their offensive, averaging 6.34 runs of support per game while the pitching start struggles. The starters have been averaging a Game Score of 40 in those starts - twice failing to throw in the 20s.
• AJ Pierzynski, like Joe Crede, is having a resurgence at the beginning of this season culminating in winning the American League Player of the Week for the first week of 2008. Through the first 8 games the former Twins catcher is hitting .429/.484/.786 with six extra base hits among his 12 total hits.

Cleveland Indians

• The Indians recently bought out Fausto Carmona's arbitration years by signing him to a 4-year, $15 million dollar deal similar to the one the Cardinals signed Adam Wainwright to. In his first two starts, Carmona is maintaining his groundball trend which he established last season at a 66% rate, this year 88% of balls in play have been on the grass. He has shown erratic tendencies including walking 9 in just 11 innings.
• Through 9 games, Cleveland was tied with the Twins but had a much different picture of how they reached that record. Averaging 4.22 runs of support per start, the Indians dropped 3 out of 4 games when they surrendered 6 runs or more. The Indians starting rotation has been producing nearly a quality start each outing (an average Game Score of 49) but it is the bullpen that has been failing, specifically closer Joe Borowski. In 2.3 innings Borowski has allowed 5 earned runs, including 2 home runs and already blowing one save. Cleveland might have to admit early that the lucked out in 2007 using Borowski as a closer: Despite leading the American League in saves, Borowski was only able to covert 84% of his opportunities and was nearly a full earned run higher (5.07) than every other closer with double-digit saves not named Al Reyes (4.90). Rafeal Betancourt and his 31 holds in 2008 is a great candidate to replace Borowski.

Minnesota Twins

• Contrary to what preseason wags believed, the Twins starting rotation has been one of the most consistent in the division, next to the Royals, averaging a Game Score of 51 through 9 games. I'll admit Livan Hernandez's back-to-back starts have been good, he has been the recipient of 1 run of support more per start (5.01) then the staff's average (4.04). Even though as I am writing this Hernandez just finished 7 innings of scoreless ball against the Royals, I am not yet ready to proclaim him the ace. Call me bitter, but I am still reminded of the 2007 start of Ramon Ortiz: through his first five starts, Ortiz was 3-1, averaging a Game Score of 59 per start. In his last five starts as a Minnesota Twin, Ortiz averaged a paltry Game Score of 28 finishing 3-5 prior to being sent to the bullpen and then ultimately Colorado. Obviously injuries to Kevin Slowey and Francisco Liriano's inability to be ready come season open has validated the necessity to sign Hernandez, however, the ascension of Nick Blackburn has also proved that if the Twins have faith in their developed talent that they too can provide quality innings.
• Even though people are hoping all over the Jason Kubel bandwagon - complemented nicely with a Free Jason Kubel campaign - I just want to go on record as saying that as early as January I believed that Kubel would be a vital piece to this Twins line-up and that the naysayers were in for a surprise (I appreciate Seth's support at the time, might have be the only other person to read that). I believe the debate between play Kubel and not-play Kubel was divided between the "results based" fans and the "process based" fans. Those who look strictly at the surface numbers (i.e. rbis, home runs, etc) would have been disappointed in his performance. The hype that followed Kubel up from the minors was large and his knee injury certainly detered his play. Last year, his line drive rate was back to where it had been prior to his injury and his second-half numbers not only had better results, but indicated that he had more patience and was rediscovering his strike zone by walking more and striking out less. I will go on record as stating he looks like the least happiest professional athlete ever to hit a major league home run.

Detriot Tigers

• Finally winning their first game of the season has provided a sense of relief to the Tiger clubhouse. Back in December, I dissected the lineup and wrote four reasons why they could be grossly overrated. Regression was one reason, specifically for players like Renteria and Sheffield, but injuries to key players (such as the one currently to Curtis Granderson) could easily upset the balance. Of course nobody would expects the Tigers to finish in the cellar, especially with the talent laden lineup they have, but there is plenty of reason to believe that they are not as good as everybody once believed.
• Outside of Carlos Guillen, the one player they wanted to ship out during the winter, Brandon Inge, has been their most consistant hitter in the first 8 games. He is batting .269/.387/.577 with 2 home runs and leading the team with 6 rbis. Meanwhile the offseason acquisition Miguel Cabrera has been hitting a measely .125/.300/.250 with a home run (his only rbi coming on that as well). Because of the injury to Granderson, Leyland has ignorantly opted to use Inge in center over Jacque Jones. For his career, Inge has played center just 25 times having a range factor of 2.12 (with the average being 2.34) while Jones has played 243 games in center in his career having a range factor of 2.43 above the average of 2.36.
• Dontrelle Willis walked 7 in his 5 inning debut for the Tigers. This apparently was a record, said the Detroit Free Press: According to research done through Baseball-Reference.com and Retrosheet.org, Willis became the first big-league pitcher since at least 1956 to do all of the following in the same outing: throw at least five innings, allow no more than one hit, give up at least seven walks and not strike out anyone.
• While time might be on the Tigers side, history isn't. The Rocky Mountain News' Tracy Ringolsby shows that only a handful of teams in history (eight to be exact) have started the season 2-8 and made the playoffs. One of them may be familiar: the 1991 Minnesota Twins.

Twins Notes

• Michael Cuddyer found himself on the DL after a hard slide into the back of Royals' third baseman Alex Gordon's cleat. The injury will cost Cuddyer a 15-day stint on the DL and will also remove a potent bat against left-handed pitching. This creates a vacuum at the number 3 spot, one that Cuddyer had not satisfactory This season Cuddyer has come to the plate with runs in scoring position six times and only once did he manage to drive in a run (Gomez from third). In two of those instances, he struck out. Even though he had a slow start and lacked production at the beginning of the season, Cuddyer was still the logical choice to bat third over Delmon Young.

• Interestingly enough, the Twins opted to recall Denard Span over the hot-hitting Garrett Jones in response to losing their number 3 hitter. Jones, in his first three games at Rochester, compiled 12 at-bats and accumulated 6 hits (2 extra base hits) while driving in 4 runs and scoring 4 more himself. Span, meanwhile, in his two games has received 9 at-bats and has managed to assemble a bell curve-like batting line of .333/.400/.333. All of his hits have been singles but he added two stolen bases while scoring once and driving in one. A year ago, the organization might have been tempted to recall Jones strictly on his current hitting streak only to receive offensive futility and defensive liability at the major league level. While I believe that Jones could be a useful part on a team that needs a left-handed bat in a pinch, Span offers more defense and on-base abilities that have been lacking in the early part of this season. Because he is left-handed, it makes Span less of an ideal replacement. As was the case on Monday's game against the White Sox, Gardenhire had a lefty-dominated line-up of Span, Mauer and Morneau batting 3-4-5.

• The definition of a mutually beneficial relationship: Through 8 games, Carlos Gomez has scored five times and was driven in by Joe Mauer in all instances except one. The local pundits have often made a point of degrading Mauer's ability strictly because he finishes with a low rbi number for a typical three hitter. While I hold the philosophical praise of the RBI in contempt, I do believe that Mauer could eclipse the 100-rbi mark for the first time in his career if the duo continues this pace. In previous seasons, Mauer lacked the runner positioned on second base who could easily score on a single. Gomez completes that piece of the puzzle. It will be interesting to see how the revised Cuddyer-less line-up effects this dynamic what with Joey Jo-Jo shifting to the three hole and Span and occasionally Matt Tolbert shifted into the two spot.

• You got Blackburn'ed: The new term for when Nick Blackburn strikes you out. In his full seasons Blackburn's strike out rate was typically at 10-13% while in the minors. So far in 2008, he's dispatching batters at a 21% strike out rate -- this output is not likely to sustain but it still proves that he very much belongs in the rotation even when Liriano comes back. Blackburn has been the recipient of both silent bats and imploding bullpens otherwise the rookie might be staring down a 2-0 start to his career instead of the 0-1 he currently has. In his 2008 debut, Blackburn limited the formidable Angels to one run - on his wild pitch - and struck out Vlad Guerrero three times. He scattered five hits in his 7 innings of work, compilign a Game Score of 68. In that game Blackburn was able to get groundballs on 80% of the balls put in play. The unfortunate part for Blackburn is that the Angels starter Joe Saunders who held the Twins scoreless while pitching to what amounted to a Game Score of 77. Last night against the White Sox, Blackburn pitched 5 innings and accumulated 5 strikeouts. His results were not necessarily ideal as he proved by his Game Score of 48, but he did leave the game with a 3-2 lead before the bullpen turned it over. Although two starts is not a proper measurement of skill, Blackburn, who is known as a groundball pitcher, induced groundballs at a 67% rate in those games.

Royals Series Preview

Twins 1-3 (2.06 runs scored per game/4.25 runs surrendered per game) | Royals 3-0 (4.03 runs scored per game/1.66 runs surrendered per game)

Up until today, the last time the Twins faced a Royals team with a winning record was August 23rd, 2003. On that day, the Twins found themselves in third place, a half behind the surprising Royals. Johan Santana dominated a line-up that still contained Carlos Beltran, striking out 10 in six innings. The Twins won that game, the final of a three game series at the Dome, and continued a second-half climb that culmenated in the second of four division championships. While the Twins went 46-23 during that stretch on the way to a 90-72 record, the Royals failed to sustain the level of play at the beginning of the season, finishing 32-38 in the second half dropping back to third in the AL Central.

(Perhaps the reversal of fortune could be attributed to career back-up catcher Tom Prince. In 2003, the Twins used the 38-year-old catcher in the first-half of the season and were 44-49 at the all-star break and were 7.5 games behind the Royals. On July 13th, the Twins released the aging catcher and several days later the Royals signed him. Up to the break, the Royals were 51-41, when they picked up Prince, they finished a 32-38, 7 games behind the Twins. Then again, Prince only played 8 games for the Royals which was hardly enough opportunity to appropriately sabotage a baseball team.)

Nearly five years worth of games have been played against Kansas City and they have all been against a sub-.500 opponent. Now, the only players that remains on either roster now is Juan Rincon, Justin Morneau and Michael Cuddyer for the Twins and just David Dejesus for the Royals. Naturally, the season is only four games old, but these Royals have shown signs that they are not quite the doormat that everybody thought they would have been. Sweeping a three game series from the Tigers at Comerica would have been a daunting task on paper before the season started. Detroit was a bit of a shall, lacking Curtis Granderson and having Miguel Cabrera scratched during one game, but the starting pitching, not to mention the bullpen, helped the Royals start undefeated. Zack Greinke and Brian Bannister combined to limit the potentially most potent line-up to only one run in the past two games. Furthermore, the once worthless Royals bullpen that could be counted on to hand over a lead on a moment's notice threw 4 innings of scoreless ball and only walked one batter.

While Kansas city Star's Sam Mellinger outlined plenty of reasons not to get too caught up in this fast start, there seems to be just as many reasons to think that this could be sustainable. Though three games are difficult to mount total optimism, this squad does have the parts to be competitive. After all, players like Alex Gordon, Mark Teahen and Billy Butler are all dangerous hitters - that's not even mentioning what Jose Guillen could conceivably contribute. The bullpen with Joakim Soria and Leo Nunez has legitimate talent that was lacking the previous seasons.

Game #2: Boofda.

Twins 1, Angels 9 (Box Score)

• The critism will focus on his first inning of work where he was roughed up for two of three earned runs, but Boof Bonser threw marginally well throughout his 6 innings of work, good enough for a game score of 46. He gave up 3 earned runs - a 4th on an error - but he still kept his team within striking distance. He was failed both by his offense and in some respects his bullpen (albeit had the offense made it a one or two run game, Brian Bass would never had made an appearance). Revisiting the pitch f/x data, it appeared that Bonser may have been a bit "wound-up" in his 2008 debut. His fastball was cresting between 92-95 among those first twenty pitches, most likely causing the ball to level out instead of creating that tailing movement that induces groundballs (Bonser had a 45% groundball rate last year). As a result, Vlad Guerrero and Garret Anderson traded doubles on similar 95-mph fastballs. "I was all jittery and happy and just letting it ride," Bonser confirmed after the game, adding: "I was just happy to get the first one out of the way. I settled down afterwards and got going." The following inning, Bonser began to throw his fastball around 88 to 92 mph where he found more success. After the first inning and the nerves settled, his fastball was much improved which led to using the slider as the outpitch - 3 out of 4 strikeouts were on his slider.

• What also needs to be said is that his opponant on the hill, Jon Garland, bested him by tossing 8 innings and scattering 6 hits while walking one. Garland, whose game score was 61, induced groundball outs on 70% of the balls put in play (17 of 24). The Twins, to my recollection, seem offensively futile against groundball pitchers in the past several years. I should check the statistics to see if this supports my memory. Garland, who had a 39% groundball rate last season, is hardly your prototypical groundball pitcher as is the instance of Carlos Silva who had a 47% groundball rate, but Garland throws a good sinker.

• The Michael Cuddyer Ground-Into-Double-Play talley is at 1 in 2008.

Game #1: Livan

Twins 3, Angels 2 (Box Score)

Monday night was Livan Hernandez's 8th opening day start since his career began in 1996. Officially, he is now 4-3 in those starts with one no-decision. He subdued the Angels offensive just enough to allow for the Twins' bats to find a way to score Carlos Gomez. His 7 innings, 7 hits, 2 earned runs and 1 strike out was good enough for a game score of 56, his fourth best opening day performance.

In 1998 Hernandez was tapped to pitch the opener for the Florida Marlins against the Chicago Cubs. Matching up against Hernandez was former Twins Kevin Tapani. Livan threw 5.1 innings, giving up 5 earned runs with 2 strike outs and a walk which amounted to a game score of 32. Fortunately for Hernandez and the Marlins, Tapani threw even worse: the righty couldn't get an out in the 3rd innings and finished with 9 earned runs and a game score of 6. Needless to say, Hernandez was the recipient of offense and luck.

From 2000 to 2002, Hernandez was the opening day starter for the San Francisco Giants. In 2000, Hernandez lost to the Florida Marlins but he pitched marginally well. In 6 innings, Hernandez gave up 9 hits, 3 earned runs, a walk and 5 strike outs for a game score of 42. His Marlin counterpart, Alex Fernandez, nearly duplicated his stats by throwing 7 innings with 8 hits, 3 earned runs, a walk and 5 strike outs (a game score of 55). He was spurned from a no-decision when in the 5th inning both Rich Aurilia and Barry Bonds committed a error a piece scoring future Twin Mike Redmond and Alex Gonzalez, two unearned runs that ultimately made the difference.

The Giants opened up against state rival San Diego Padres and once again had Hernandez as the inaugural pitcher in the 2001 season. Hernandez held the Padres to just 2 earned runs in 7.1 innings with 3 walks and 6 strikeouts for the victory (a game score of 61). His game score could had been substantially better had Alan Embree, who was brought in to face Tony Gwynn with Mark Kotsay on second and Phil Nevin on first, not surrendered a single to the future Hall of Famer that allowed Kotsay to score from second.

The following season the Giants faced the other in-state rival, the Los Angeles Dodgers, where Hernandez was matched-up against Kevin Brown (of the $100 million dollar bust club). Hernandez, for his part, held the Dodgers to 2 runs over 8 innings while striking out 3 and walking 3 for a game score of 66. Brown, meanwhile, only finished 4 innings and surrendered 7 runs including a home run to Barry Bonds.

From 2004 to 2006, Hernandez was the opening day starter for the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals. In his first opening day appearance for the Les Boys in 2004, Hernandez battled phenom Josh Beckett and the Florida Marlins. For the most part, Hernandez traded innings with Beckett compiling very similar lines. Hernandez went 6 innings, giving up 5 hits, 2 earned runs, 1 walk and struck out 8 for a game score of 61. Beckett, meanwhile, went 7 innings, gave up 4 hits, 1 run and walked 3 while striking out 9, bettering Hernandez's game score with 71. Hop See Choi, the Marlin first baseman, hit a home run in the 2nd inning off of Livan to account for the difference. Though Hernandez was not factored in to the decision, the Expos still lost.

In 2005, relocated to the Nation's capital, Hernandez had the worst opening day start of his career, this time against NL East powerhouse Philadelphia Phillies. Normally an innings-eater, Hernandez did not reach the 5th and gave up 8 hits, 7 earned runs, 2 walks with 4 strike outs and a home run. This amounted to a punitive game score of 22 and Livan was credited for the loss.

His most recent opening day prior to Monday, Hernandez faced Tom Glavine and the New York Mets. While Hernandez was slightly below average (game score of 42), he did not pitch terribly and kept his team in the game by going 6 innings, scattering 8 hits while being tagged for 3 runs (one David Wright home run) with 4 strike outs and one walk. Nevertheless, Hernandez was the loser in the contest.

What this means is that this small microcosm of opening day starts paints the bigger picture for Hernandez on the whole as a pitcher. In those starts, he has accumulated a winning percentage of .571, better than his overall career winning percentage of .511. Over the course of his 8 opening day starts, Hernandez averaged 5.4 innings, his career average of 6.7 innings per game is obviously better, but he had the propensity to give up more runs in his first start (a 4.73 era opening day versus 4.25 era in his career). When you look at his game score in those starts - the best being 66, the worst being 22 - you will find that through out the season Hernandez will be right in that range. In half of his opening day starts, Hernandez pitched well enough to earn a victory by finishing with a game score over 50. In three of them, he was the winning pitcher with one no-decision. In the other half of his opening day starts, he was below 50, making it increasingly difficult for his team to keep offensive pace. He was fortunate enough to survive one of those games with a win despite a game score of 32. This means that Hernandez needs a good amount of offensive support to propel himself to an above .500 record.

It is no secret that I believe, statistically supported in this theory mind you, that Livan Hernandez will give up a considerable amount of runs for the Twins. Because his velocity is hardly of a major league caliber, he is reliant on both location and speed variations to guide him through his 6-plus innings. In some cases he's pitched well enough to not lose the ball game - often with game scores in the 50s - but others he has detonated the game by tossing games well below 40. Oddly enough, one of the most Homersota columnists in the state, Sid Hartman, also agree that the opener will also be an anomaly from Hernandez rather than the norm saying "You can't expect the kind of pitching every game that Livan Hernandez provided in giving up two runs in seven innings Monday night in a 3-2 victory over the Angels."