Game #1: Livan

Twins 3, Angels 2 (Box Score)

Monday night was Livan Hernandez's 8th opening day start since his career began in 1996. Officially, he is now 4-3 in those starts with one no-decision. He subdued the Angels offensive just enough to allow for the Twins' bats to find a way to score Carlos Gomez. His 7 innings, 7 hits, 2 earned runs and 1 strike out was good enough for a game score of 56, his fourth best opening day performance.

In 1998 Hernandez was tapped to pitch the opener for the Florida Marlins against the Chicago Cubs. Matching up against Hernandez was former Twins Kevin Tapani. Livan threw 5.1 innings, giving up 5 earned runs with 2 strike outs and a walk which amounted to a game score of 32. Fortunately for Hernandez and the Marlins, Tapani threw even worse: the righty couldn't get an out in the 3rd innings and finished with 9 earned runs and a game score of 6. Needless to say, Hernandez was the recipient of offense and luck.

From 2000 to 2002, Hernandez was the opening day starter for the San Francisco Giants. In 2000, Hernandez lost to the Florida Marlins but he pitched marginally well. In 6 innings, Hernandez gave up 9 hits, 3 earned runs, a walk and 5 strike outs for a game score of 42. His Marlin counterpart, Alex Fernandez, nearly duplicated his stats by throwing 7 innings with 8 hits, 3 earned runs, a walk and 5 strike outs (a game score of 55). He was spurned from a no-decision when in the 5th inning both Rich Aurilia and Barry Bonds committed a error a piece scoring future Twin Mike Redmond and Alex Gonzalez, two unearned runs that ultimately made the difference.

The Giants opened up against state rival San Diego Padres and once again had Hernandez as the inaugural pitcher in the 2001 season. Hernandez held the Padres to just 2 earned runs in 7.1 innings with 3 walks and 6 strikeouts for the victory (a game score of 61). His game score could had been substantially better had Alan Embree, who was brought in to face Tony Gwynn with Mark Kotsay on second and Phil Nevin on first, not surrendered a single to the future Hall of Famer that allowed Kotsay to score from second.

The following season the Giants faced the other in-state rival, the Los Angeles Dodgers, where Hernandez was matched-up against Kevin Brown (of the $100 million dollar bust club). Hernandez, for his part, held the Dodgers to 2 runs over 8 innings while striking out 3 and walking 3 for a game score of 66. Brown, meanwhile, only finished 4 innings and surrendered 7 runs including a home run to Barry Bonds.

From 2004 to 2006, Hernandez was the opening day starter for the Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals. In his first opening day appearance for the Les Boys in 2004, Hernandez battled phenom Josh Beckett and the Florida Marlins. For the most part, Hernandez traded innings with Beckett compiling very similar lines. Hernandez went 6 innings, giving up 5 hits, 2 earned runs, 1 walk and struck out 8 for a game score of 61. Beckett, meanwhile, went 7 innings, gave up 4 hits, 1 run and walked 3 while striking out 9, bettering Hernandez's game score with 71. Hop See Choi, the Marlin first baseman, hit a home run in the 2nd inning off of Livan to account for the difference. Though Hernandez was not factored in to the decision, the Expos still lost.

In 2005, relocated to the Nation's capital, Hernandez had the worst opening day start of his career, this time against NL East powerhouse Philadelphia Phillies. Normally an innings-eater, Hernandez did not reach the 5th and gave up 8 hits, 7 earned runs, 2 walks with 4 strike outs and a home run. This amounted to a punitive game score of 22 and Livan was credited for the loss.

His most recent opening day prior to Monday, Hernandez faced Tom Glavine and the New York Mets. While Hernandez was slightly below average (game score of 42), he did not pitch terribly and kept his team in the game by going 6 innings, scattering 8 hits while being tagged for 3 runs (one David Wright home run) with 4 strike outs and one walk. Nevertheless, Hernandez was the loser in the contest.

What this means is that this small microcosm of opening day starts paints the bigger picture for Hernandez on the whole as a pitcher. In those starts, he has accumulated a winning percentage of .571, better than his overall career winning percentage of .511. Over the course of his 8 opening day starts, Hernandez averaged 5.4 innings, his career average of 6.7 innings per game is obviously better, but he had the propensity to give up more runs in his first start (a 4.73 era opening day versus 4.25 era in his career). When you look at his game score in those starts - the best being 66, the worst being 22 - you will find that through out the season Hernandez will be right in that range. In half of his opening day starts, Hernandez pitched well enough to earn a victory by finishing with a game score over 50. In three of them, he was the winning pitcher with one no-decision. In the other half of his opening day starts, he was below 50, making it increasingly difficult for his team to keep offensive pace. He was fortunate enough to survive one of those games with a win despite a game score of 32. This means that Hernandez needs a good amount of offensive support to propel himself to an above .500 record.

It is no secret that I believe, statistically supported in this theory mind you, that Livan Hernandez will give up a considerable amount of runs for the Twins. Because his velocity is hardly of a major league caliber, he is reliant on both location and speed variations to guide him through his 6-plus innings. In some cases he's pitched well enough to not lose the ball game - often with game scores in the 50s - but others he has detonated the game by tossing games well below 40. Oddly enough, one of the most Homersota columnists in the state, Sid Hartman, also agree that the opener will also be an anomaly from Hernandez rather than the norm saying "You can't expect the kind of pitching every game that Livan Hernandez provided in giving up two runs in seven innings Monday night in a 3-2 victory over the Angels."

Twins Notes (Opening Day Eve)

• Joe C reports that Scott Baker tossed 6 innings of one run ball with 3 strikeouts in the minor league camp. Naturally this is huge considering Baker is expected to be one of the frontline starters and will expect to improve on his 2007 season numbers. The Bill James Gold Mine 2007 took a retrospective look at the Twins. One fact that James highlighted was that Baker rarely threw his slider in 2006 (3%) but in 2007 used it as his secondary pitch (25%) next to his fastball and consequently his ERA decreased by nearly two full runs. A closer examination of his pitches via pitch f/x reveals that his slider had the best WHIFF average of all of his four pitches - a .259 rating (making bats miss 25% of the time). One thing Baker should work on is getting his slider to dart out of the zone. Last season, his slider was thrown in the strike zone 73% of the time (2% better than his fastball). Former Twin Kyle Lohse threw his slider 22% of the time and was in the zone only 66% of the time but accumulated a .333 WHIFF average on his. If Baker is able to start his on the outer half of the plate and have it slide away from the right-handed batter I would assume that his WHIFF average would increase exponentially due to more empty swings.

• Last season the Twins had the most disappointing production from their 9th spot hitters according to the Gold Mine. Nick Punto (73 games), Jason Bartlett (45 games) and Alexi Casilla (20 games) combined to have the lowest OPS in the American League (.582) AND lower than the St Louis Cardinals in the National League that typically employed a pitcher in that spot. This season all indications are that Adam Everett with be the player asked to shore up the tail end of the line up. His 2007 injury-shortened campaign did not offer much improvement as Everett posted a .599 OPS. Those previous three hit .230/.293/.289 combined. Everett did worse when it came to acquiring a base, he hit .232/.281/.318, but was deficient in the on-base category. Everett, however, has a slightly better career average and is capable of saving many more runs with his glove than he creates with his bat.

• Jim Souhan's preview of the Twins 2008 line-up states that it is filled promise, especially with Cuddyer, Morneau and Young manning the heart of the order. Souhan has long been the target of being labeled as "shecky" with drawn out analogies comparing pitching rotations to Butterball Turkeys and the like. Recently, the Strib columnist has seemingly been attending SABR meetings, mixing in the occasionally reference to "on-base percentage" and his desire to move Mauer to the top of the order. This sort of writing I fully support, despite the fact that I think the notion of Mauer batting first is too "on-base percentage" centric. Mauer does not have the base-running prowess to obtain the run production success that is required of the lead-off spot. Souhan has been drawing the conclusion that people on base equals more opportunities to score runs and those with higher on-base percentages should be positioned at the top of the order where they are likelier to receive more at-bats and therefore produce more runs. This is the sort of systematic logic I prefer when presenting an argument for augmenting a line-up.

• On the other hand, Souhan still attempts to pass off baseless statements without so much as doing a simple check with Baseball-Reference. In the same article mentioned above, Souhan wrote "Morneau is the Twins' best clean-up hitter since Harmon Killebrew". While in the literary sense, comparing Morneau to Harmon Killebrew is acceptable - both known for their long home runs - and your tune-in, tune-out fans would appreciate the likening that allows for easy mental imagery of two fine sluggers, however it should be noted that a more appropriate comparison would have been "since Corey Koskie" or "since Kent Hrbek". Morneau, in his 943 plate appearances batting clean-up, has accumulated an OPS of .799 while Killebrew in his 4,880 plate appearance at clean-up in his career posted a .890 OPS, a seemingly insurmountable difference. Meanwhile, Hrbek in his 4,388 plate appearances at clean-up had an OPS of .864 a closer comparable but yet a wide margin of difference. Lastly, Corey Koskie had just several more 4th spot plate appearances (1,176) than Morneau at this juncture in his career but had amassed an OPS of .820. The hope since locking Morneau up to a long term contract, he would some day usurp both Hrbek and Koskie as the most productive clean-up hitter in the Twins history. Killebrew is a long shot.

• In another Twins preview Souhan began by saying that the 2002 Twins won the division in spite of Doug Mientkiewicz batting third, which is the partial truth. Again, Souie, a simple fact-check with Baseball-Reference would suffice. Koskie batted in the third hole in 66 games, Mientkiewicz did so in only 64 - a small discrepancy but a discrepancy nonetheless. The lefty tandem was also some what successful. Mientkiewicz, who posted a .757 OPS total that season, at a .722 OPS in 286 plate appearances in the third spot. Koskie, meanwhile, had a slightly better season batting third. His season OPS was .815 but he was only a .746 OPS hitter in 275 plate appearances batting third still more productive than Mientkiewicz.

• Unfortunately we will not be graced with a knuckleballer's presence at the Dome unless he is on the visiting team. La Velle reports that the Mariners have sent minor league catcher Jair Fernandez in return for the rights to R.A. Dickey, who had a solid spring in the Mariners camp. The 20-year-old Fernandez played in the Midwest League (A) last season for the Wisconsin Timber Rattlers. In 169 plate appearances he hit .260/.337/.377 with 2 home runs and an isolated power average of .117.

Twins Notes (3.20.08)

• Stats Blog recently analyzed the potential break-out players in 2008, 25-and-under, based upon increase in slugging percentage. Prince Fielder had the largest increase of slugging of 135 between 2006 (.483) and 2007 (.618), his second consecutive year with that honor. The 6th overall on the list was Jason Kubel, who increased his slugging percentage 64 points from 2006 (.386) to 2007 (.450). Kubel, a favorite to have a big season based both on his second-half performance in 2007, his peripheral stats and now slugging track record, has had a very strong spring posting a .250/.341/.417 in 36 at-bats with 2 home runs but most importantly 5 walks and only 2 strike outs. "Jason Kubel will be in there every once in a while [italics added]. We have a new baseball team out there. The good thing about it is these guys are game-on. They are all playing pretty good. We have been mixing in a lot of people." Gardenhire said, which echoed previous sentiments he relayed earlier in the month. "Kubel proved he can hit the second half [of 2007]," Gardenhire told columnist Patrick Ruesse, "I've decided that with him what you see is what you're going to get. He's going to be that speed. And when he turns it up a notch, we don't notice. It's not that much of a notch." Although all indications suggest that Kubel is a strong candidate to have a break-out season, his manager is the only one who is seemingly not convinced.

• Speaking of increase in power, over at Lookout Landing, they discovered (thanks to the new Fangraphs charts) that relief pitcher Matt Guerrier had the 6th highest increase of miles per hour on his fastball since 2005 at 2.0%. Not surprisingly, he experienced a proliferation in use as he provided confidence in a bullpen that was reeling with the loss of Jesse Crain and Dennys Reyes in 2007. Along with his fastball, his strikeout rate increased from 12% to 19% from 2006 to 2007. He finished with 14 holds -- one less than Pat Neshek and tied with Juan Rincon. With Crain and Reyes healthy for 2008, Guerrier's role is undefined after giving up as many runs as he has thrown innings this spring (7) and has seen them littered with hits (11) but he also missed four days this spring due to "family issues". Guerrier was listed at one of the potential internal replacements for Joe Nathan as the closer. "With his big breaking ball," Gardenhire said, "as a starter he'd get through two times through the lineup. But now you put him in the pen and let him go through the lineup once, and he eats them up." Guerrier proved to be reasonably effective in late & close situations, especially compared to Rincon (124 plate appearances, .274/.331/.434 versus 96 plate appearances, .298/.372/.452), Guerrier was vastly inferior to Neshek who posted a .135/.220/.262 line in 126 plate appearances. Though the increase in usage in the "late & close" situation suggest that Guerrier may have the make-up to be a closer, Neshek is still the clear choice to be the heir apparent.

• Then again, Joe Nathan is pretty confident that a deal with the Twins is imminent. "They had a good meeting and it seems like both sides are heading in the right direction," said Nathan. "From the way my agent is talking, this thing looks closer to getting done." Nathan, who was second only to Boston's Jonathon Papelbon in save conversion (90.2% to 92.5%), and is deserving of a long-term contract. Unlike various closers with gaudy save numbers Nathan has consistently secure games that have a differential of 2 runs or less while some closers obtain saves with a 3 or 4 run cushion (Cleveland's Joe Borowski and Detroit's Todd Jones come to mind). In spite of his dominance, he hasn't been nearly as unhittable in "late & close" situations as Neshek was in 2007. Nathan, in 199 plate appearances in situations that quantified as "late & close" by Baseball-Reference.com, had a batting line of .219/.284/.331. As mentioned before, Neshek posted a .135/.220/.262 in 126 plate appearances. Though I wouldn't mind a Neshek/Nathan combo in the 8th and 9th, if Nathan is traded mid-season, the Twins are in good hands with the hometown hero.

• While the starting rotation has as much resolve as the plot of Lost, several unexpected pitchers are throwing themselves into the race. Brian Bass certainly has done everything possible to earn a spot. In 10.2 innings this spring, Bass has compiled 8 strike outs, walked only 2 and has had a 1.74 era. "He's put himself in a good situation here to be one of our options, to be one of the guys on our staff," Gardenhire said. "It will probably go right down to the end until we have to make a decision. We like him a lot [but] it's just going to be what is the best fit." Bass re-emerged with the stuff that once made him a prospect in the Royals organization in 2007 and led the organization in greatest increase in strikeout rate from the previous season among Twins minor league prospects (from 11% in 2006 to 19% in 2007). As previously stated, the final spots in the rotation/bullpen have yet to be defined, but the most common names circulating among the Twins writers are Blackburn, Humber and Perkins. Bass has not been granted the opportunity to start in spite of his 2007 performance and early spring dominance while the aforementioned three have all had at least one start a piece. The unfortunate situation for Bass (or more appropriately the Twins) is that he is out of options and will either have to be placed on the team or risked being sent through the waivers before being reassigned to Rochester -- a risky venture considering his most recent numbers and the eternal search for pitching. An argument could have been presented to retain Bass and never sign Livan Hernandez, however, Bass could not contributed that "veteran leadership" that a 33-year-old could supply.

Analyzing the Front Three (Part 2, Game Scores)

Lifting once again from the free passages of www.billjamesonline.net, I was impressed by a Jamesian argument for the inclusion of Bert Blyleven based upon his compiled Game Scores. Game Scores, invented by James himself, is a measuring stick of a pitcher's performance on any given day. According to BR Bullpen Wiki, Dean Chance holds the all-time highest game score at 116 (1964), which he accomplished this by throwing 14 shut out innings with 12 strikeouts and surrendering only 3 hits. Conversely, Mike Oquist threw the worst recorded Game Score of -29 in 1998 in a contest where he gave up 14 earned runs in 5 innings. James figures that if you achieve a Game Score 50 or above, you have a better chance of helping your team winning while if you throw a Game Score below 50 you are hurting your team's chances of victory.

The world-renown sabrmatician attempted to find resolution to the argument that Bert Blyleven had pitched much better than his career .534 winning percentage would incinuate, aside from simply saying 'because'. Upon examination of the numbers, James saw that Bert was the recipiant an inordinate amount of "tough losses", a loss recieved despite throwing a Game Score above 50, indicating that he was indeed a hard-luck Dutchman.

Scott Baker - 9-9 (4-1 in no-decisions)

• GS > 50: 5-3 (2-0)
• GS < 50: 4-6 (2-2)

This analysis persuaded me to inspect the numbers of the Twins front line starters, beginning with Scott Baker. Had Johan Santana not masterfully carved up the Texas Ranger offense on August 19th of last year, a performance that resulted in a Game Score of 95, Baker would have held the title for "Highest Twins Game Score" after his August 31st match-up against the Kansas City Royals where he earned a Game Score of 93. Baker, the headliner in only 23 games in 2007, accrued a record of 9-9 but assisted the Twins in more victories (4-1) in games he did not recieve the decision. Of his 9 wins, Baker had 5 games in which his Game Score was above 50. This means he had 3 games in which his offense or defense lifted him into the win column (or what Bill James refers to as a "cheap win"). His "luckiest" game came on July 6th in the first game of a doubleheader against the White Sox in which he gave up 7 earned runs in just 5 innings (a Game Score of 26) but still was named the winner when the offense supported him with 20 runs. In his 9 losses, Baker tossed 4 games above a Game Score of 50 but was credited the loss when the Twins bats went silent. In just one outing prior to that aforementioned "cheap win", Baker faced the 2nd place Tigers on July 1st at Comerica and matched Jeremy Bonderman for 7 scoreless innings. That is, until Marcus Thames hit a solo home run to left in the bottom of the 8th. Baker struck out 7 in 8 innings, a Game Score of 76 but was tagged with the loss when the Twins failed to score any runs. Bonderman had a Game Score of 74.

GS > 90	GS 80-89	GS 70-79	GS 60-69	GS < 40
1	1	3	1	8

Another critical part of this study is that when you look at the breakdown of Scott Baker's numbers, his 2007 season was often statistically polar opposites. In 6 of his starts, Baker dazzled and provided a glimpse of the dominating prospect the front office expected, completing those games with Game Scores of 60 or above. 5 of those games he finished 70 or higher. Unfortunately in 8 of his 23 starts, Baker's Game Score was 40 or lower, bottoming out on May 30th with a Game Score of 17 in a 10 hit, 6 earned run tromping by the White Sox in only three innings.

When the media or coaching staff says that Scott Baker has the ability to be the staff ace, they undoubtedly mean it. Baker, however, has to prove that he has learned from those 8 games in which he failed to keep his team in victory's reach.

Boof Bonser - 8-12 (6-4 in no-decisions)

• GS > 50: 5-3 (5-2)
• GS < 50: 3-9 (1-2)

Boof had a very forgettable sophomore season in the Twins rotation. In his first season with the Twins, Bonser was one of several who produced as a starter as Brad Radke struggled to remain healthy. Bonser inspired enough confidence to be named the game two starter against the Oakland Athletics in the ALDS (mostly because of lack of Radke and Liriano, but still). The Boof finished 6 strong innings while relinquishing 2 earned runs and strikeout three. He left with a Game Score of 52 and the game tied 2 to 2. He, along with 55,710 other Dome attendees, watched in horror as Dennys Reyes gave up a dying liner to center off of the bat of Mark Kotsay that made its way past the diving Torii Hunter to the blue tarp in deep center as Jason Kendall and Kotsay raced around the bases for an inside the park home run. The Twins front office had enough faith that in his small showing on the big stage that Bonser would be a good compliment to Johan Santana in 2007. Bonser failed to emerge as that candidate. Consistancy was a constant problem with Bonser in 2007. Yes, he had 3 tough losses but nothing as spectacular as Baker's Game Score of 76 against the Tigers. In fact, Bonser's best Game Score was 77, one better than Baker but it was obvious that the right-hander peaked in mid-May. After starting 1-1 in his first 8 starts of the year, Bonser worked the Milwaukee Brewers on May 18th in front of 44,759 paying customers at Miller Park (a good number of them Twins fans on that Friday night). He struck out 11 in 7 innings and gave up just one run. Bonser never had an outing as bad as Baker's Game Score of 17 against the White Sox, but he did produce Game Scores of 21 on three seperate occasions - the most embarassing coming on September 2nd where Bonser did not make it out of the 2nd inning against a weak Kansas City lineup. Bonser, for the most part, tossed very mediocre games. He gave his team the opportunity to win but was frequently shelled just as well.

GS > 90	GS 80-89	GS 70-79	GS 60-69	GS < 40
0	0	1	4	8

Evidence that Bonser does not come equipt with overwhelming stuff, or at least fails to employ it, as Baker did in 2007. While successful at giving his team opportunity to win in 5 of his 30 starts (16%), on the other hand he was a liability to the team in 8 (26%). The other 58% of his starts Bonser was just good enough to to hope the team would provide him with enough run support, which they often did not (4.16). Both Bonser's third season and an improved offensive would greatly assist in raising his winning percentage.

Livan Hernandez - 11-11 (5-6 in no-decisions)

• GS > 50: 7-1 (1-5)
• GS < 50: 4-10 (4-1)

A diminishing talent (read: older than 33) with a crafty approach (read: 84-mph fastball), Hernandez did what everybody expected him to do: finished .500. (A more astute analyst would say that he was actually a .484 pitcher considering the Diamondback's record was 16-17 in games he started but for the benefit of those who continue to drink the kool-aid, we will label him a ".500 pitcher") Livan, as a pitcher, was thrillingly unspectacular in 2007. Never once did he finish with a Game Score higher than 67 but three times he finished with Game Scores 12 or lower. His wins are pretty consistant. If he was able to pitch good enough to keep his Game Score in the 60s, the offense came through with 4.4 runs on average for Hernandez. He was only cheated out of one game in August, where the Padres at PETCO tagged him for only two runs in 6 innings but the Diamondbacks failed to muster any runs of the always dominate Jake Peavy. Peavy, who struck out 11 D'Backs that game, produced a Game Score of 75. Twice Hernandez was the victim of Jose Valverde's blown saves (both instances to NL Champion Colorado Rockies) after pitching Game Scores of 60 or better. Judging by his Game Score division above, however, he was the recipiant of 4 victories that could have easily have been loses. His May 12th game in Houston where he lasted only 4 innings and was tattooed for 8 runs on 11 hits and 2 home runs (Mike Lamb was one of them) resulted in a Game Score of 10. What Hernandez brings to the mound is the feeling that he will not get cheated. When he is missing his spots, it can be worse than fuel on fire. Fuel mixed with napalm on fire. His crafty approach (read: mixes 64 mph curveballs) can keep a lineup off balance enough at times to allow his offense to generate runs and his bullpen to hopefully secure the victory.

GS > 90	GS 80-89	GS 70-79	GS 60-69	GS < 40
0	0	0	7	9

As mentioned before, Hernandez is a pitcher that tries to get through 6 or 7 innings at which point he hopes that he has not surrendered enough runs to put the game out of reach for his team. In 7 of his 33 starts he gave his team a better than average opportunity to win. 9 times Hernandez took the mound and failed to give his team the chance to win (3 of which were unmitigated disasters of FEMA emergency proportions). This leaves 17 appearances in which Hernandez took the mound and gave his team a 50-50 chance of winning. He would give up 4+ runs but would hope that his offense would match. He leaves little margin of error for his team.

Analyzing the Front Three: (Part 1, Record of Opposing Batters)

What we can say with some certainty is that in the Twins rotation are Livan Hernandez, Boof Bonser and Scott Baker. Hernandez is slated to be the opening day pitcher while Bonser is hoping to over come a disappointing sophomore season and Baker has been considered the new "ace" of the staff (but may be a question mark due to a recent injury). The remainder of the rotation - be it Kevin Slowey, Philip Humber or Francisco Liriano - are equally, if not more, important but first few months of the 2008 season will be driven by the three right-handers, and they are the three we will inspect closer in the next few days.

I've been touring the Bill James website (www.billjamesonline.net) taking the opportunity to peruse the free tour before investing the ungainly sum of $3 a month for the limitless knowledge of baseball statistics and columns from the bearded one himself. It is fascinating stuff; eventually at some point this week I will throw the three crisp Washingtons at the James Enterprise (as well as buy the new book Gold Mine) so as not to feel like such a freeloader. If you haven't toured it yet, please do so.

There were several analyses that the Bill James website offered that should be applied to the Twins new top three starting pitchers. One was evaluating pitchers by their batting lines, titled Record of Opposing Batters. The notion being that if you would desire this pitcher as a "hitter" in your line-up based on how his opponents' hit him, you probably are not happy with his pitching production. James offers Greg Maddux's statistics as an example. Maddux's 2007 opponents had accumulated 776 at-bats, scored 92 runs, hit 14 home runs and had a batting line of .285/.309/.429 -- essentially hitting like Ivan Rodriguez (who hit .281/.294/.420 in 2007). Last year, Johan Santana's opponents had 814 at-bats, 88 runs scored, hit 33 home runs but had a lowly batting line of .225/.273/.405 -- a line very similar to that of the White Sox's freeswinging Juan Uribe's .234/.284/.394. If you were building a line-up you might include Ivan Rodriguez (on the basis of having an offensive catcher) but you definitely would omit Juan Uribe. Thus, Santana was much better than his 15-13 record suggested because he turned every hitter into Uribe while Maddux's performance was probably pretty consistent with his 14-11 record since Rodriguez had a satisfactory offensive season.

Inspecting the same numbers of the Twins front three in the rotation and we discover similar trends. Livan Hernandez finished .500 for the Diamondbacks (11-11) in 33 starts, but was also ripped for a .870 ops. Below is Hernandez's 2007 "batting line":

at-bats	runs	hits	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	gidp	avg	obp	slg	ops
803	116	247	42	5	34	79	90	20	5	22	.308	.371	.499	.870

Hernandez's batting line of .308/.371/.499 was most comparable to Indians switch-hitting catcher Victor Martinez who in 2007 batted .301/.374/.505. This is one indication of being lucky to achieve a .500 record. One reason he wasn't an absolute disaster is because he had the ability to strand runners on base at a 75% rate, a redeeming quality that probably "earned" him one more seasons in the pros thanks to a need for a veteran in the Twins rotation. However if he continues to turn his American League Central opponents into Martinez, success will be very fleeting.

Boof Bonser, meanwhile, completed 30 starts for the Twins in 2007 and compiled a 8-12 record his sophomore year in the majors.

at-bats	runs	hits	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	gidp	avg	obp	slg	ops
678	103	191	39	2	25	63	133	11	7	12	.282	.346	.456	.802

In 2006 Bonser fared much better by limiting opponents to a .770 ops. Part of the reason his ops inflated 30 points is that he labored to throw strikes and therefore walked more individuals (his walk rate crept up from 5.7% in 2006 to 8.4% in 2007). Andre Ethier of the Los Angeles Dodgers is the most comparable to Bonser's line. Ethier finished 2007 batting .284/.351/.452 which is a very respectable batting line for a hitter. The hope is that Bonser can rebound in his third season, harnessing the control that he had in 2006 with his ability to net strikeouts. Simply reducing the number of batters allowed to reach on walks would greatly reduce his on-base percentage, which aids in limiting the number of runs scored.

Scotty Baker had the most success of the three in 2007 but also only had 23 starts; he spent the first two months of the season refining pitching in Rochester. Like Hernandez, Baker finished .500 (9-9) but his batting line would suggest that he threw better than his record indicates:

at-bats	runs	hits	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	gidp	avg	obp	slg	ops
595	69	159	32	3	14	29	99	11	4	16	.288	.328	.432	.760

After Santana's departure, Baker received the moniker of potential staff ace by the local and mlb.com writers. Perhaps the 1-hit, shut-out of the Kansas City Royals was still fresh in the reporter's minds. This title was induced a collective scoff across the Twins blogosphere. Baker has a solid minor league track record, but staff ace? There was no evidence that suggested he was dominating (his highest strikeout total was 9 in one game which he accomplished twice in 2007). His comparable batting line is to Seattle Mariners catcher Kenji Johjima who hit .287/.322/.433 in the northwest, which is probably representative of a .500 record. So of the three, Baker is the worst "batter" making him candidate for the most successful pitcher of the trio.

The numbers indicate that there is plenty of room for improvement. Bonser and Baker have the talent to "hit" their way into Brandon Inge territory (.236/.312/.376). If injuries are not a factor, Baker seems like to most likely candidate to do that. Bonser needs to make some adjustments to reduce the number of free passes. Hernandez, as much as it pains me to say this, is probably destined to have an abysmal season. Games that will be decided by large quantities of runs will most likely be won by the opposing team, to which Hernandez has been privy to (he gave up 5 or more runs in 10 of his 33 starts). The Twins as a team are in no position to engage in slug-fests and the pitching staff will have to accommodate if the team is looking to contend in the American League Central.