Analyzing the Front Three (Part 2, Game Scores)

Lifting once again from the free passages of www.billjamesonline.net, I was impressed by a Jamesian argument for the inclusion of Bert Blyleven based upon his compiled Game Scores. Game Scores, invented by James himself, is a measuring stick of a pitcher's performance on any given day. According to BR Bullpen Wiki, Dean Chance holds the all-time highest game score at 116 (1964), which he accomplished this by throwing 14 shut out innings with 12 strikeouts and surrendering only 3 hits. Conversely, Mike Oquist threw the worst recorded Game Score of -29 in 1998 in a contest where he gave up 14 earned runs in 5 innings. James figures that if you achieve a Game Score 50 or above, you have a better chance of helping your team winning while if you throw a Game Score below 50 you are hurting your team's chances of victory.

The world-renown sabrmatician attempted to find resolution to the argument that Bert Blyleven had pitched much better than his career .534 winning percentage would incinuate, aside from simply saying 'because'. Upon examination of the numbers, James saw that Bert was the recipiant an inordinate amount of "tough losses", a loss recieved despite throwing a Game Score above 50, indicating that he was indeed a hard-luck Dutchman.

Scott Baker - 9-9 (4-1 in no-decisions)

• GS > 50: 5-3 (2-0)
• GS < 50: 4-6 (2-2)

This analysis persuaded me to inspect the numbers of the Twins front line starters, beginning with Scott Baker. Had Johan Santana not masterfully carved up the Texas Ranger offense on August 19th of last year, a performance that resulted in a Game Score of 95, Baker would have held the title for "Highest Twins Game Score" after his August 31st match-up against the Kansas City Royals where he earned a Game Score of 93. Baker, the headliner in only 23 games in 2007, accrued a record of 9-9 but assisted the Twins in more victories (4-1) in games he did not recieve the decision. Of his 9 wins, Baker had 5 games in which his Game Score was above 50. This means he had 3 games in which his offense or defense lifted him into the win column (or what Bill James refers to as a "cheap win"). His "luckiest" game came on July 6th in the first game of a doubleheader against the White Sox in which he gave up 7 earned runs in just 5 innings (a Game Score of 26) but still was named the winner when the offense supported him with 20 runs. In his 9 losses, Baker tossed 4 games above a Game Score of 50 but was credited the loss when the Twins bats went silent. In just one outing prior to that aforementioned "cheap win", Baker faced the 2nd place Tigers on July 1st at Comerica and matched Jeremy Bonderman for 7 scoreless innings. That is, until Marcus Thames hit a solo home run to left in the bottom of the 8th. Baker struck out 7 in 8 innings, a Game Score of 76 but was tagged with the loss when the Twins failed to score any runs. Bonderman had a Game Score of 74.

GS > 90	GS 80-89	GS 70-79	GS 60-69	GS < 40
1	1	3	1	8

Another critical part of this study is that when you look at the breakdown of Scott Baker's numbers, his 2007 season was often statistically polar opposites. In 6 of his starts, Baker dazzled and provided a glimpse of the dominating prospect the front office expected, completing those games with Game Scores of 60 or above. 5 of those games he finished 70 or higher. Unfortunately in 8 of his 23 starts, Baker's Game Score was 40 or lower, bottoming out on May 30th with a Game Score of 17 in a 10 hit, 6 earned run tromping by the White Sox in only three innings.

When the media or coaching staff says that Scott Baker has the ability to be the staff ace, they undoubtedly mean it. Baker, however, has to prove that he has learned from those 8 games in which he failed to keep his team in victory's reach.

Boof Bonser - 8-12 (6-4 in no-decisions)

• GS > 50: 5-3 (5-2)
• GS < 50: 3-9 (1-2)

Boof had a very forgettable sophomore season in the Twins rotation. In his first season with the Twins, Bonser was one of several who produced as a starter as Brad Radke struggled to remain healthy. Bonser inspired enough confidence to be named the game two starter against the Oakland Athletics in the ALDS (mostly because of lack of Radke and Liriano, but still). The Boof finished 6 strong innings while relinquishing 2 earned runs and strikeout three. He left with a Game Score of 52 and the game tied 2 to 2. He, along with 55,710 other Dome attendees, watched in horror as Dennys Reyes gave up a dying liner to center off of the bat of Mark Kotsay that made its way past the diving Torii Hunter to the blue tarp in deep center as Jason Kendall and Kotsay raced around the bases for an inside the park home run. The Twins front office had enough faith that in his small showing on the big stage that Bonser would be a good compliment to Johan Santana in 2007. Bonser failed to emerge as that candidate. Consistancy was a constant problem with Bonser in 2007. Yes, he had 3 tough losses but nothing as spectacular as Baker's Game Score of 76 against the Tigers. In fact, Bonser's best Game Score was 77, one better than Baker but it was obvious that the right-hander peaked in mid-May. After starting 1-1 in his first 8 starts of the year, Bonser worked the Milwaukee Brewers on May 18th in front of 44,759 paying customers at Miller Park (a good number of them Twins fans on that Friday night). He struck out 11 in 7 innings and gave up just one run. Bonser never had an outing as bad as Baker's Game Score of 17 against the White Sox, but he did produce Game Scores of 21 on three seperate occasions - the most embarassing coming on September 2nd where Bonser did not make it out of the 2nd inning against a weak Kansas City lineup. Bonser, for the most part, tossed very mediocre games. He gave his team the opportunity to win but was frequently shelled just as well.

GS > 90	GS 80-89	GS 70-79	GS 60-69	GS < 40
0	0	1	4	8

Evidence that Bonser does not come equipt with overwhelming stuff, or at least fails to employ it, as Baker did in 2007. While successful at giving his team opportunity to win in 5 of his 30 starts (16%), on the other hand he was a liability to the team in 8 (26%). The other 58% of his starts Bonser was just good enough to to hope the team would provide him with enough run support, which they often did not (4.16). Both Bonser's third season and an improved offensive would greatly assist in raising his winning percentage.

Livan Hernandez - 11-11 (5-6 in no-decisions)

• GS > 50: 7-1 (1-5)
• GS < 50: 4-10 (4-1)

A diminishing talent (read: older than 33) with a crafty approach (read: 84-mph fastball), Hernandez did what everybody expected him to do: finished .500. (A more astute analyst would say that he was actually a .484 pitcher considering the Diamondback's record was 16-17 in games he started but for the benefit of those who continue to drink the kool-aid, we will label him a ".500 pitcher") Livan, as a pitcher, was thrillingly unspectacular in 2007. Never once did he finish with a Game Score higher than 67 but three times he finished with Game Scores 12 or lower. His wins are pretty consistant. If he was able to pitch good enough to keep his Game Score in the 60s, the offense came through with 4.4 runs on average for Hernandez. He was only cheated out of one game in August, where the Padres at PETCO tagged him for only two runs in 6 innings but the Diamondbacks failed to muster any runs of the always dominate Jake Peavy. Peavy, who struck out 11 D'Backs that game, produced a Game Score of 75. Twice Hernandez was the victim of Jose Valverde's blown saves (both instances to NL Champion Colorado Rockies) after pitching Game Scores of 60 or better. Judging by his Game Score division above, however, he was the recipiant of 4 victories that could have easily have been loses. His May 12th game in Houston where he lasted only 4 innings and was tattooed for 8 runs on 11 hits and 2 home runs (Mike Lamb was one of them) resulted in a Game Score of 10. What Hernandez brings to the mound is the feeling that he will not get cheated. When he is missing his spots, it can be worse than fuel on fire. Fuel mixed with napalm on fire. His crafty approach (read: mixes 64 mph curveballs) can keep a lineup off balance enough at times to allow his offense to generate runs and his bullpen to hopefully secure the victory.

GS > 90	GS 80-89	GS 70-79	GS 60-69	GS < 40
0	0	0	7	9

As mentioned before, Hernandez is a pitcher that tries to get through 6 or 7 innings at which point he hopes that he has not surrendered enough runs to put the game out of reach for his team. In 7 of his 33 starts he gave his team a better than average opportunity to win. 9 times Hernandez took the mound and failed to give his team the chance to win (3 of which were unmitigated disasters of FEMA emergency proportions). This leaves 17 appearances in which Hernandez took the mound and gave his team a 50-50 chance of winning. He would give up 4+ runs but would hope that his offense would match. He leaves little margin of error for his team.

Analyzing the Front Three: (Part 1, Record of Opposing Batters)

What we can say with some certainty is that in the Twins rotation are Livan Hernandez, Boof Bonser and Scott Baker. Hernandez is slated to be the opening day pitcher while Bonser is hoping to over come a disappointing sophomore season and Baker has been considered the new "ace" of the staff (but may be a question mark due to a recent injury). The remainder of the rotation - be it Kevin Slowey, Philip Humber or Francisco Liriano - are equally, if not more, important but first few months of the 2008 season will be driven by the three right-handers, and they are the three we will inspect closer in the next few days.

I've been touring the Bill James website (www.billjamesonline.net) taking the opportunity to peruse the free tour before investing the ungainly sum of $3 a month for the limitless knowledge of baseball statistics and columns from the bearded one himself. It is fascinating stuff; eventually at some point this week I will throw the three crisp Washingtons at the James Enterprise (as well as buy the new book Gold Mine) so as not to feel like such a freeloader. If you haven't toured it yet, please do so.

There were several analyses that the Bill James website offered that should be applied to the Twins new top three starting pitchers. One was evaluating pitchers by their batting lines, titled Record of Opposing Batters. The notion being that if you would desire this pitcher as a "hitter" in your line-up based on how his opponents' hit him, you probably are not happy with his pitching production. James offers Greg Maddux's statistics as an example. Maddux's 2007 opponents had accumulated 776 at-bats, scored 92 runs, hit 14 home runs and had a batting line of .285/.309/.429 -- essentially hitting like Ivan Rodriguez (who hit .281/.294/.420 in 2007). Last year, Johan Santana's opponents had 814 at-bats, 88 runs scored, hit 33 home runs but had a lowly batting line of .225/.273/.405 -- a line very similar to that of the White Sox's freeswinging Juan Uribe's .234/.284/.394. If you were building a line-up you might include Ivan Rodriguez (on the basis of having an offensive catcher) but you definitely would omit Juan Uribe. Thus, Santana was much better than his 15-13 record suggested because he turned every hitter into Uribe while Maddux's performance was probably pretty consistent with his 14-11 record since Rodriguez had a satisfactory offensive season.

Inspecting the same numbers of the Twins front three in the rotation and we discover similar trends. Livan Hernandez finished .500 for the Diamondbacks (11-11) in 33 starts, but was also ripped for a .870 ops. Below is Hernandez's 2007 "batting line":

at-bats	runs	hits	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	gidp	avg	obp	slg	ops
803	116	247	42	5	34	79	90	20	5	22	.308	.371	.499	.870

Hernandez's batting line of .308/.371/.499 was most comparable to Indians switch-hitting catcher Victor Martinez who in 2007 batted .301/.374/.505. This is one indication of being lucky to achieve a .500 record. One reason he wasn't an absolute disaster is because he had the ability to strand runners on base at a 75% rate, a redeeming quality that probably "earned" him one more seasons in the pros thanks to a need for a veteran in the Twins rotation. However if he continues to turn his American League Central opponents into Martinez, success will be very fleeting.

Boof Bonser, meanwhile, completed 30 starts for the Twins in 2007 and compiled a 8-12 record his sophomore year in the majors.

at-bats	runs	hits	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	gidp	avg	obp	slg	ops
678	103	191	39	2	25	63	133	11	7	12	.282	.346	.456	.802

In 2006 Bonser fared much better by limiting opponents to a .770 ops. Part of the reason his ops inflated 30 points is that he labored to throw strikes and therefore walked more individuals (his walk rate crept up from 5.7% in 2006 to 8.4% in 2007). Andre Ethier of the Los Angeles Dodgers is the most comparable to Bonser's line. Ethier finished 2007 batting .284/.351/.452 which is a very respectable batting line for a hitter. The hope is that Bonser can rebound in his third season, harnessing the control that he had in 2006 with his ability to net strikeouts. Simply reducing the number of batters allowed to reach on walks would greatly reduce his on-base percentage, which aids in limiting the number of runs scored.

Scotty Baker had the most success of the three in 2007 but also only had 23 starts; he spent the first two months of the season refining pitching in Rochester. Like Hernandez, Baker finished .500 (9-9) but his batting line would suggest that he threw better than his record indicates:

at-bats	runs	hits	2b	3b	hr	bb	k	sb	cs	gidp	avg	obp	slg	ops
595	69	159	32	3	14	29	99	11	4	16	.288	.328	.432	.760

After Santana's departure, Baker received the moniker of potential staff ace by the local and mlb.com writers. Perhaps the 1-hit, shut-out of the Kansas City Royals was still fresh in the reporter's minds. This title was induced a collective scoff across the Twins blogosphere. Baker has a solid minor league track record, but staff ace? There was no evidence that suggested he was dominating (his highest strikeout total was 9 in one game which he accomplished twice in 2007). His comparable batting line is to Seattle Mariners catcher Kenji Johjima who hit .287/.322/.433 in the northwest, which is probably representative of a .500 record. So of the three, Baker is the worst "batter" making him candidate for the most successful pitcher of the trio.

The numbers indicate that there is plenty of room for improvement. Bonser and Baker have the talent to "hit" their way into Brandon Inge territory (.236/.312/.376). If injuries are not a factor, Baker seems like to most likely candidate to do that. Bonser needs to make some adjustments to reduce the number of free passes. Hernandez, as much as it pains me to say this, is probably destined to have an abysmal season. Games that will be decided by large quantities of runs will most likely be won by the opposing team, to which Hernandez has been privy to (he gave up 5 or more runs in 10 of his 33 starts). The Twins as a team are in no position to engage in slug-fests and the pitching staff will have to accommodate if the team is looking to contend in the American League Central.

AL Central Update (3.15.08 Edition)

Chicago White Sox

• The Sox, who at various points during the offseason, were interested in signing everybody from Torii Hunter to Aaron Rowand to Kosuke Fukudome. Instead, they traded prospects for Carlos Quentin and Nick Swisher, signed Cuban defect Alexi Ramirez and retained Jerry Owens hoping that one would emerge as a centerfielder candidate. They had discarded one-time heir to center at the Cell, Brian Anderson, as an afterthought. Naturally, Anderson did nothing to impress the top brass in his tenure in Chicago, finishing in 2006 with a low .225/.283/.359 line. That season he showed little patience, walking in only 8% of his plate appearances while striking out in over 22%. At age 25 Anderson found himself back in triple-A trying to show Kenny Williams that he didn't commit an egregious error in judgement assuming that Anderson could be just as good as fan favorite Aaron Rowand who he sent to Philadelphia for Jim Thome. He was brought up to Illinois in April but demonstrated the same futility that earned him the passage to Charlotte by reaching base in 4 of his 19 plate appearances. This spring, however, Anderson has been hitting well enough to place himself back into the mix. ''The only thing about Brian," Manager Ozzie told the Chicago Sun-Times,"hopefully he takes this game the way we thought he can play and he starts his career.'' In more than double the plate appearances this spring compared to 2007 (50), Anderson has made a strong case for being given one last chance: He has hit .380/.481/.750 with 3 home runs in his time provided to him by Quentin's lingering shoulder injury.
• Joe Crede, who was a catalyst of the 2005 Championship team with his glove and recovering from missing a chuck of the 2007 season, has been the topic of trade conversation all spring as Josh Fields emerged as a bonifide slugger in Crede's absence. Injury recovery is never a guarantee, any 30-year-old will tell you that, but Crede is a valuable commodity. Admittedly, Fields being a younger still in indentured servitude so his production is that much more valuable, but Crede is a rare two-way player. Offensively, Fields has a much higher ceiling. In his 418 plate appearances last season, Fields hit 23 home runs and accumulated .244/.308/.480 averages in Crede's stead. Meanwhile Crede's last healthy full-season performance he had over 500 plate appearances in 2006 he had 30 home runs and averages of .289/.323/.506. Crede finished 6 ops+ points higher (107) in 2006 than Fields did in 2007 (101). Defensively, a healthy Crede is that much better than the former Sooners quarterback. In 2007, Fields gave an effort at third that lead to 2.9 win shares with his glove. He started 19 double-plays (being a quarterback, he has a very strong arm, more suited for an outfield position) and made 15 plays out of zone leading to a revised zone rating of .668 in his 689 innings of work. In 2006, Crede provided 7 win shares with his defense. He started 36 double-plays and retrieved 57 balls out of zone, leading to a revised zone rating of .760 in his 1260 innings of work. Kenny Williams hasn't quite given Crede the vote of confidence, assuming that Williams is offered the right deal by San Francisco or Los Angeles, Crede could be on the first train west, especially because he is in the final year of his contract. The unfortunate part is that Crede hasn't given much reason to have him play with his 1 extra base hit (a home run) in 7 hits.

Cleveland Indians (Grapefruit League)

• Cardinals Rule 5 draft pick centerfielder Brian Barton, snatched from the Indians organization, is having a great spring batting .333/.385/.666 with 2 triples, 2 home runs and 1 double. Cleveland has reiterated that in spite of having one of the AL's best centerfielders in Grady Sizemore, they are hoping that St. Louis returns him at the end of spring training. When the Twins were light on the centerfield candidates during the Rule 5 draft, there was speculation that if Barton were available when the Twins selection came, Barton could be brought in to audition for the position. Unfortunately the Cardinals had the same need and drafted prior to the Twins. Barton is competing with former MVP Juan Gonzalez, who is hoping to mount a major league comeback, is also having a good spring hitting .308/.333/.482 with one home run off of Johan Santana. But a nagging injury to Gonzalez's abdomen has given a better opportunity to Barton to make the team making it less likely of a chance of a Cuyahoga homecoming for Barton.
• The Indians rotation - outside of Sabathia, Carmona, Byrd and Westbrook - is still wide open between Jeremy Sowers, Cliff Lee and Aaron Laffey. Sowers continued to impress Cleveland management this late in the spring with 12 days remaining until the team heads north. The one mitigating factor is that Lee is still due $3.75 million in 2008 and $5.75 in 2009 in a mishap of a contract while Sowers and Laffey are still secured in their indentured servitude portion of theirs. The 24-year-old Sowers has thrown 3 times against the Twins for 23 innings and maintains a 3.13 era. In his only game facing the Twins on April 23rd Sowers did not receive the decision in a 7-3 Indians victory after he threw 7 innings of 9 hit ball and giving up all 3 runs. Laffey, meanwhile, made his major league debut against the Twins last August 4th going 5.1 innings versus Matt Garza. The Twins won 3 to 2 (Ramon Ortiz was the pitcher of record as Garza exited in after 4 innings) and they dinged Laffey for 6 hits and all 3 runs. Lee, who was battling injuries last season, did not face the Twins in 2007. The 29-year-old Lee has amassed a decent record of 5-2 with a 4.23 era in 66 innings facing the Twins in his career. Considering that they are all lefties, the albatross to the Twins offense last season, none of the three are ideal. Laffey is a shade less experienced than Sowers but did win 17 games in three levels in 2007.
• Kelly Shoppach, Victor Martinez's understudy catcher, spent the 2007 season being Paul Byrd's personal catcher. For whatever the reason, be it rapport,

  Synchronicity, or just preference, some pitchers will request the services on one particular catcher no matter the circumstance. In 2007 the Byrd/Shoppach battery took the field 31 time in 2007. In those games the combination finished 19-12 (Byrd was the 15-8 in those matches). For his career, Byrd had allowed hitters to hit .274/.319/.451 against him while he struck out 13.7% of batters faced and walked just 5.6%. However, in 2007 coupled with Shoppach at his behest, Byrd was touched up for .301/.329/.473 with a strike out rate of 10.5% and a walk rate of 3.3%. While the correlation may be weak and the notion that a catcher can influence a pitcher is still an on-going debate among statheads, it would appear that Byrd/Shoppach is a successful combo for the Indians as evident by the .612 winning percentage in spite of producing a batting line similar to Miguel Tejada.

Detroit Tigers

• Scouts on MLB.com have elected Justin Verlander's fastball as the best in the major leagues. While the impromptu poll doesn't quantify the basis for the award, Verlander, according to pitch f/x data, throws his fastball on average at 95.1 mph. While this is a very good velocity, Verlander certainly doesn't have the most unhittable fastball. In a partial study of the data, Verlander leaned on his fastball using it 63% of the time and had a WHIFF of .082. Javier Vazquez, an AL Central rival, throws his at 92.6 mph but carries a WHIFF of .190. Johan Santana throws his at 92 as well and accumulated a WHIFF of .209. The runner-up in the category was Yankee Joba Chamberlain who throws his significantly harder than Verlander at 98.2 and had a WHIFF of .146. The point is without any defined parameters it is hard to understand why it is the best fastball. Then again, SI did name him the number 1 young pitcher in the major leagues.
• The once dominant bullpen that led the Tigers to the World Series in 2006 is facing turmoil in 2008 as both Joel Zumaya and Fernando Rodney could be absent from the beginning of the season. While the confidence is high because Todd Jones, arguable one of the most underwhelming closers in 2007, is still anchoring the bullpen. Though crafty, Jones is not a dominating closer. The 2006 World Series appearing Tigers benefited from the dominance of Zumaya and Rodney in crucial late innings situations and handed the ball to Jones in cushy "save opportunities".
• Even though they have relinquished several key arms in the past few offseasons including Andrew Miller to Florida (who might be the opening day starter for the Marlins), 2007 draft pick Rick Porcello is proving that the Tigers still have a plethora of arms in their system for the future.

Kansas City Royals

• Free agent acquisition right-handed pitcher Brett Tomko is off to a poor start in the ides of March. In 10.2 innings of work, Tomko has allowed 12 earned runs (15 total) and is sporting a 10.12 era. The 34-year-old Tomko, who is due $3 million for 2008, has been mostly a spot-starter and long relief the past several seasons. At the time of the signing the Royals figured that Tomko would be in the rotation behind a solid Gil Meche, stathead sophomore Brian Bannister and Zack Greinke but has instilled doubt after his preseason performance.
• Joe Posnanski does an excellent, if not long-winded, preview (part II) of the Kansas City Royals.
• Billy Butler is a really, really, really good hitter. In his 37 spring training at-bats, Butler is hitting .378/.452/.676 with 5 extra base hits (3 home runs). This could be the story-line of the 2008 season for the Royals and when Royals fans are grasping for straws mid-season, they may enjoy having Butler as the KC All-Star representative. Making the call right now.

Minnesota Twins

• Always the bearer of cold shower columns, Patrick Ruesse didn't fail to pen a depressing opinion piece detailing the shortcomings of the 2008 Twins. Admittedly, the starting rotation has plenty of question marks but Ruesse missed the mark by calling Scott Baker and Boof Bonser "4-and-5 starters, not 1-and-2's". In his iceberg reporting of just calling it as he sees 'em style is a method as outdated as the newspaper it is printed on. While Baker and Bonser have yet to produce season in the major leagues that equate to being frontline starters, both hurlers have minor league track records that suggest it is possible. Baker showed his brilliance in his 1-hit shutout of the Kansas City Royals and Bonser has worked hard to drop excess poundage which has given him better numbers this spring. Furthermore, Ruesse pointed to just the second outing of Francisco Liriano since 2006 as an early canary in the coal mine that Liriano is finished as a pitcher. "Liriano had no more life on his pitches than in his first comeback start last Friday" wrote the Strib scribe. The truth is that Liriano is rebounding from an injury that cost him the entire 2007 calender year. His velocity will not be at the point it was in 2006 most likely until May or June. The slider lacked both bite and accuracy but it is hardly appropriate to write him off after two spring training outings.
• The problem is that Baker could begin the season the disabled list, after suffering from similar malady to Glen Perkins, who missed more than 3 months last year. In his 4 innings in the spring, Baker did not give up a run and struck out 4 while walking only one.
• Bonser, meanwhile, has continued his torrid pace, finishing 9 innings and giving up only three runs. The success has been attributed to both his weight loss and his approach. Part of that new approach is instituting more change-ups during the game. "Last year, I threw like maybe one or two a game,'' he said, "and that was amazing." Actually, Bonser used his change-up 6% of the time according to pitch f/x data. The problem is, it appears to be very hittable. Bonser's 92 mph fastball, which he employed 58% of the time, had a WHIFF average of .071 (roughly average for a fastball). His 83 mph change-up (1 mph faster than Hernandez's top speed) when thrown had a WHIFF average of .068. This is a very low rating for a change-up meaning that contact was made when it was thrown. For perspective, Baker throws his change-up at 81 mph (and used it even less frequently at 4% of his pitches), but managed to make bats miss with a WHIFF average of .200. More might not be necessarily better however it may disrupt the hitters ability to sit on his fastball or curveball (which enjoyed a high WHIFF average of .247).
• One correct line out of the Ruesse column was "Livan Hernandez will need five runs (or more) to win a game." Last season the enigmatic Cuban's Diamondbacks needed more than 5.11 runs of support on average to lift the team to victory. This season with the adjustment to American League hitters may require additional runs from the Twins. His 9 runs given up in 9 spring training innings is not reassuring anyone in the Twins Territories.

Nick Punto | 30-years-old | Utility | -6 WSAB (2007)

2007: .210/.288/.271 | 1 HR | 11% bb%/17% k%

• 15% LD% | 51% GB% | 34% FB%

• 14.6% : Nick Punto's line drive rate was the third lowest in the American League among qualified batters (ahead of him was 2/3rds of the 2008 Los Angeles Angels outfield, Torii Hunter and Gary Matthews Jr). This was a significant decrease from his 2006 line drive rate of 24%.

• .255 : Nick Punto's batting average of balls in play was the lowest in the American League.

• .271 : slugging percentage. Lowest among qualified American League batters.

• 23% : of Nick Punto's 99 hits went for extra bases, though 55% of his hits from the right side of the plate went for extra bases while only 20% of his hits left-handed went for extra bases.

• .175/.243/.240 : batting line in 172 plate appearances as a right-handed batter against left-handed pitching in 2007.

• .127/.207/.155 : batting line in his 82 plate appearances in August.

• 4.0 : Number of pitches per at-bat.

• 0 - 1 : Nick Punto's best count. He hit .308/.308/.404 with one strike and no balls. Very meaningless statistic but interesting nonetheless.

• .205 : batting average against Cleveland's CC Sabathia (2 for 15), Paul Byrd (2 for 10) and Fausto Carmona (3 for 9).

Why he'll improve in 2008: As the axiom goes, went you hit bottom there is no where else to go but up. And the bottom of the league was right where Nick Punto's batting average on balls in plays was. Some will tell you that BABIP is luck, which if true, Nick Punto's season could have been one of the unluckiest of them all. By isolating both Punto's contact type and BABIP you can see how the production declined. 85% of the time he was putting the ball into play as a pop-up or groundball, two methods that have very good odds of being converted in to outs. His low line drive rate in addition to his high groundball and fly ball rates decreased his average on batted balls (the low .255). Some will suggest that 2006 in which he finished batting .290/.352/.373 was the deviant to his true production. Punto's 2007 season, however, witnessed a significant regression from the type of contact he was making 2004 through 2006. In 2004, Punto hit line drives in over 30% of the balls in play. The following season he hit line drives 21% of the time and improved his contact in 2006 by hitting line drives 24% of the time. In those seasons, his batting average on balls in play was around or above .300. When his line drive rate plummeted to 15%, so did his BABIP and consequently his batting average followed. Punto's walk rate and strikeout rate in 2007 were both slightly above the league average but consistant with the output he had in his two previous seasons. The biggest change was the contact. There is nothing to suggest that Nick Punto's swing will create more line drives in 2008 but it should improve considering the previous trajectory of his career.

Post-Game (Exhibition Game 8)

Twinks 8, O's 7 (Box Score)

• The Twins provided Livan with a 5 runs, .6 of a run improvement from his 2007 average run support from Arizona, yet Hernandez allowed 6 runs, almost a run higher than his runs allowed average last year. La Velle reports that Hernandez isn't worried, based on the fact that last spring he entered the 2007 sporting a 13.07 era in spring training. The rationale is that even though Hernandez had a terrible 10.5 innings in the spring, he still finished 11-11 with a 4.93 era. The problem with that logic is that there are far too many varitables that would suggest that Hernandez will repeat this performance. Several mitigating factors including age and nine hitters instead of eight in the American League suggest that there is the possibility that Hernandez will significantly regress. The transition from a ballclub that was ranked 5th best in the majors in overall defense by John Dewan to Minnesota who finished 18th best in 2007 and has lost a Gold Glove centerfielder could adversely effect Hernandez's 2008 numbers. The fact is, Hernandez is heavily reliant on his defense as 85% of batters faced put a ball in play (and 21% did so in line drive form). Livan, however, is particularly good at stranding runners. Last year, he finished among the top National League starters with a 75% left-on-base rate. If Hernandez is able to keep the ball in the park and replicate his left-on-base rate, he stands the opportunity of shaving runs scored down from his bloated 5.11 per 9 innings last year.

• In some way, you have to respect Carlos Gomez's swagger, no matter how misguided. Gomez recently told the Tom Powers that he will help this team because he would be batting "ahead of Morneau and the catcher and the other guy." Reading statements like this I envision Gomez to be a Dominican Ricky Bobby.

• Delmon Young finished the game 3 for 3 with 2 rbis and a run score. Following Wednesday's Yankees game where he launched a shot off the centerfield batting eye on a line has Twins fans anxious to see if he has honed his plate approach this offseason. Potential has been there for Delmon, discipline has been lacking. Patrick Ruesse penned a column indicating that Young is expected to carry a big load considering he is the replacement Torii. The relatively bland piece of reporting took an abrupt u-turn in the final two paragraphs however:

  Young's home run was the game's first for the Twins. Garrett Jones followed with a two-run bomb off the Yankees' Joba Chamberlain. Buscher also had another line-drive hit. These are two lefthanded hitters the Twins would like on the bench -- but only one can make the club. Unless, Jason Kubel's first week of lifeless at-bats continues through March ... then what?

  "Kubel proved he can hit the second half [of 2007]," Gardenhire said. "I've decided that with him what you see is what you're going to get. He's going to be that speed. And when he turns it up a notch, we don't notice. It's not that much of a notch." Between Gardenhire's comments and Ruesse's reporting, it sounds as if there is an undercurrent to add Garrett Jones and Brian Buscher to the roster at the expense of Jason Kubel. Kubel was undoubtedly the Twins best hitter in August and September (if not that then the most improved hitter). This spring he has only two hits in nine at-bats inciting some concern among the coaches that the second-half was the anomaly and not the beginning. I wrote in January reiterating BP's Joe Sheehan's sentiment that Kubel will have a breakout season in 2008 and that the only thing impeding him from doing so would be Gardenhire's line-up shuffles. Whether or not Gardy's quote is an indication that he is willing to sit Kubel for an extended period of time has yet to be seen.