Best and Worst Acquisitions of 2007 (Poundfoolish Edition)

What sets the Twins apart from most franchises is that they avoid sinking both large sums of money and years at free agents. Instead they rely on internal development (Mauer, Cuddyer, Kubel, Morneau), well-timed trades (Young, Castillo, Stewart) and the occasional place-holder one-year contract (Rogers, Hernandez) to bridge them from season to season. Conversely this fiscal restraint can prove detrimental to a fan base when star free agents are allowed to walk or demand trades. The blowback usually comes from some fans who request the easily identifiable superstars and local heroes to be on the field.

Spending large amounts of both years and dollars on Torii Hunter and Johan Santana, obviously two players that would have aided in winning in 2008 and 2009, would have been beneficial in the immediate future however towards the later years of the contract, the Twins could burdened by injuries, aging and overall decline in performance. As people like to point out, there is yet to be a pitcher that has signed a $100 million dollar contract that a team has not regretted in the end.

The Twins have (usually) had the foresight to have candidates ready when another exits (exception: centerfield). In cases where there are no viable candidates internally, general manager seek out potential suitors on the free agent market which grows increasingly more expensive as the desired commodity is limited. Had they decided to find Hunter's replacement on the free agent market, they could have ended up paying anywhere from $7 million (Cameron) to $12 million (Rowand) to $18.1 million (Jones) as season -- all grossly inflated rates.

Here are some of the other acquisitons made prior to 2007 that we as a Twins collective can be glad we did not invest in:

Adam Kennedy | 2B | St. Louis | -5 WSAB | $2.5 million

How Acquired: Signed three-year, $10 million dollar deal

In the first year of a three-year contract returning to the team that drafted him as the 20th overall pick in 1997, Tony LaRussa and the St. Louis Cardinals were not too pleased with his prodigal return. Long been known for his glove at second (he has a career 4.54 range factor), Kennedy struggled to find himself in his new Midwestern home. In April and May he held a batting average of .229. His season bottomed out in June where he hit .172/.238/.172 in 64 plate appearances. He somewhat rebounded prior to a season-ending knee injury at .219/.282/.290, well below his career average of .275/.329/.390.

Kennedy is due $3.5 million in 2008 and $4 million in 2009. Which if improvement doesn't happen rapidly, the Cardinals organization could be choking on a $7.5 million dollars. Kennedy skipped the Cardinals Winter Warm-Up prompting LaRussa to comment, "This year, I just don’t think we have that margin (to let a player play out of a funk). Adam is a key guy in that mix. So I expect him to return to his winning player form. But he needs to make sure he dots all the I’s, and not coming (this weekend)
is I hope his first and only mistake."

Danys Baez | RHP-R | Baltimore | -2 WSAB | $5.5 million

How Acquired: Signed a three-year, $19 million dollar deal November 27th, 2006.

After the 2006 season concluded, Baltimore's brain trust determined that the team's bullpen needed the most attention. The team when out and signed Danys Baez, Corey Bradford and Jamie Walker to three-year deals worth a combined $41.5 million. Instead of alleviating an already dreadful bullpen, the three posted a franchise worst 5.71 era. Baez exacerbated the problem: In 53 appearances he went 0-6 and accumulated a 6.44 era with 3 saves.

Blessed mercifully by an injury that would require Tommy John surgery on September 15th, 2007, Baez will miss the entirety of his second year under the contract.

Adam Eaton | RHP-S | Philadelphia | -2 WSAB | $7.2 million

How Acquired: Signed a three-year, $24.5 million dollar deal (with mutual 4th year option at $9 million) on November 30th, 2007.

Eaton came off a season with Texas where injuries and rehabilitation limited his innings to just 65. His 7-4 record with a 5.12 era was good enough though for the pitching-hungry Phillies who signed him during the off-season to a potential $33.5 million dollar contract. Able to start 30 times for the first time since 2004 then with the Padres, Eaton was hit hard and never really acclimated to his new team. He finished with a 10-10 record in 30 starts but had a terrible 6.29 era (113 earned run, 3rd worst in the NL) and gave up 30 home runs (4th worst). All this in only 160 innings of work.

In 2008, the Phillies are still committed to him but have said that he will have to battle out for the fifth spot in the rotation against JD Durbin and Mr. Anna Benson (who recently signed a minor league deal).

Rich Aurilia | INF | San Francisco | -2 WSAB | $3.5 million

How Acquired: Signed a two-year, $8 million dollar contract on December 4th, 2006.

This is one of those instances where as a general manager you simply get robbed. Aurilia came back to San Francisco from Cincinnati where he finished a very successful season hitting .300/.349/.518 with 23 home runs. Then again, had the Giants front office performed their due diligence they may have realized that the Great American Ballpark was a much better hitting environment than At&T Park. But no one could have anticipated the steep decline in 2007 where Aurilia hit .240/.304/.368 with 5 home runs in 329 at-bats. Of course Aurilia's 2006 season was significantly out of the norm from his previous production and he was also approaching his mid-30's. Two facets that might have been consider prior to giving a two-year contract to.

One appealling aspect of Aurilia's 2006 campaign was that he absolutely mashed left-handed pitching in 2006 hitting .347/.406/.680 with 11 home runs in only 165 plate appearances. This alone would be reason enough to enlist a batter. Only in 2007, Aurilia's abilities greatly plateaued at 35 years old. Instead of hitting lefties as he did with Cincinnati, he slumped hitting .240/.265/.411.

Jason Schmidt | RHP-S | Los Angeles Dodgers | -1 WSAB | $12.5 million

How Acquired: Signed a three-year, $46 million dollar contract on December 8th, 2006.

On November 3rd, 2006 Sean McAdams wrote a piece of precautionary prophecy, quoting one unidentified GM as saying "We could be looking at some regrettable deals in a couple of years." A month later, the Dodgers sank $46 million and three-years into Jason Schmidt. Without a doubt, along with Barry Zito, Schmidt was the premium arm on the market last offseason. From 2001to 2006, Schmidt compiled an 84-47 record (a .641 wpct) coupled with a 3.44 era while with the Pirates and Giants. When considered during the off-season, Schmidt seemed like a low-risk signing.

Around spring training there were tell-tale signing of lingering arm problems, such as a decrease in velocity that Schmidt tried to brush off: "I know what it takes in Spring Training and I don't think about velocity now," said Schmidt, who has two more exhibition starts before he takes the ball in Game 3 of the regular season in Milwaukee. "It's not only about being ready for April 1 but for June and July and August and throughout an entire season. I feel fine."

After 3 starts Schmidt proved to be not fine. His shoulder needed surgery (again). This time there is concern that he will not be able to recover considering his accelerated age of 35: "The Tommy John success rate is 82-85 percent for returning to the previous level, while the success rate for labral tears is about 70-75 percent," said Stan Conte, Dodgers trainer and medical director. "The qualifier is that the studies only focus on labral tears and a lot of pitchers have a combination of injuries."

Nevertheless, the Dodgers are on the hook to pay $34.5 million dollars over the course of the next two seasons, with or without his services.

Juan Pierre | OF | Los Angeles Dodgers | -1 WSAB | $7.5 million

How Acquired: Signed a five-year, $44 million dollar contract November 22nd, 2006.

Next to pitchers, centerfielders seem to be the next big free agent cash crop. Seth Mnookin wrote an article for Slate questioning the practices of the general managers. Essentially, general managers preach frugality and quality is driving their decision yet their actions say something completely different. Mnookin cites the Dodgers signing of Pierre as such evidence.

Pierre is a one-tool hitter: He hits singles. No more, no less. In 2006 he led the National League with 156. For an encore, he led the league with 164 (of 196 total hits) in 2007. He doesn't walk (4.6% bb%), but he also doesn't strike out either (5.1% k%). And he certainly doesn't have any power (.060). He would be the ideal lead-off candidate only if his .331 on-base percentage wasn't the second-lowest among Dodgers starters. It is a shame that the Dodgers vastly overpaid for an eight-hitter.

Jay Payton | OF | Baltimore | -1 WSAB | $4.5 million

How Acquired: Signed a two-year, $9.5 million dollar contract December 11th, 2006.

As you might have guessed by now, the Baltimore Orioles are not the exactly wizards of the free agent market. The Baez contract - in addition to his bullpen compatriots - scream ill-advised. Even as they attempt to make a somewhat frugal maneuver, it backfires in their beaks. Jay Payton had a blue-collar season for the Oakland A's in 2006. In 557 at-bats, Payton hit .296/.325/.418 with 10 home runs. He shows little patience (3.7% bb%) but he doesn't strikeout a lot either (8.9%). That said, Payton lives and dies by the type of contact he makes and where the ball lands on the field. In 2006 he held an average of .313 on balls put in play. His high line drive rate (22%) assisted in achieving a near .300 batting average.

The Orioles probably saw his nifty batting line and figured that since that was close to his career of .281/.325/.432, he must be able to replicate that. Unfortunately between his decline on line drives (15%) and the placement on the field (.271 babip), Payton and the Orioles saw his hitting slip to .256/.292/.376. Payton could rebound, but it is still a gamble of a contract rather than a sure thing. Payton told his former hometown paper that he'd like to play until he is 40. It is a game of chance with Payton.

Twins sign Innings Eater.

About fifteen years ago, I owned a book written by Jay Leno playing off of his various “Headlines” shtick sent in by loyal fans nationwide. There would be a headline (such as “Trees Break Wind”) from a paper sent in from Bismarck, North Dakota, Scottsbluff, Nebraska or what have you followed by a witty comment (“I thought that forest smelt funny”). One in particular was from a Muesli* cereal ad. The ad print read “Muesli: if you are not satisfied, we’ll send you another box, for free!” Leno’s commentary under the headline image was something like “Dear Muesli, your cereal tasted terrible. Thank you for sending me more.”

What does Livan Hernandez have to do with cereal and late night comedy bit made popular in the early 1990s?

The Twins front office - like the good people at the Muesli Global Corp. - is hedging their bets that more equals better. They are not necessary analyzing the quality but rather the quantity - a mistake comparable to thinking that subduing this fire requires a tad more gas.

Hernandez claims he will be 33 years old in 2008 (then again, he also told Cuban officials that he would be right back). Admittedly, the market for established starters who have thrown 150-plus innings in 2007 is stretched thin (Fogg, Benson, Lohse) and Carlos Silva set the bar by signing to his 4-year, $48-million dollar contract. If he is indeed 33 years old, $5-million for the one season (and an addition $2-million if qualifies for bonuses) would seem like a minimal risk. Supporters of this signing will argue that signing Hernandez will give the Twins pitchers veteran leadership (a quality that is not definable statistically), alleviate usage of the bullpen and provide one more season of minor league development for the pitching prospects. Most indications say that the Twins needed some "experience".

Last season, unable to leave the keys to the mound to a group of talented prospects, the Twins signed Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson to round out the rotation with the expectation that they would be digesting innings in the majors while Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey and Scott Baker put the finishing touches on in the minors. As the year played out, Ortiz and Ponson combined for 108.2 innings and were eventually displaced leaving 292.4 innings to Garza, Slowey and Baker. Not only did they pitch more, the young guns threw better innings. The former veterans had a 6.73 era; the later prospects had an era of 4.21.

Instead of relying on your own talent the Twins squandered 108 innings and missed the opportunity have Garza, Slowey and Baker in the rotation everything 5^th day. Baker is on his way to being declared the staff “ace” in 2008 (that is, if Liriano doesn't rebound). Garza’s showcasing eventually landed the Twins Delmon Young this offseason. Slowey could find himself as the 4^th or 5^th starter.

What is startling is the comparison between Ortiz’s 2006 season with Washington and Hernandez’s 2007 season with Arizona. Ortiz finished with 190 innings and an 11-16 record with a 5.57 era in the NL East, Hernandez threw 204 innings with an 11-11 record and a 4.93 era. Peripherally, their numbers are even more closely related:

	Inn.	BB%	K%	GB%	BABIP	HR/AIR	FIP	RA/9
L. Hernandez (2007)	204.1	8.7%	9.9%	40%	.314	8%	5.71	5.11
R. Ortiz (2006)	190.1	7.3%	11.9%	44%	.316	8%	5.39	5.99

200+ innings is great, only if they are not laden with runs surrendered. As Hernandez’s 2007 home run total (34, 2^nd in the NL), earned runs (114, 4th) and hits allowed (247, 1^st) would suggest, he is a potential liability in the designated hitter American League. The Twins should have no obligation to consider buying, considering the talent available in-house candidates, or at least judging by the 2008 ZiPs standards:

Zips	Innings	Era
L. Hernandez	193.0	5.55
F. Liriano	166.0	3.42
S. Baker	186.0	4.50
B. Bonser	179.0	4.98
K. Slowey	181.0	3.96
N. Blackburn	150.0	4.86
B. Duensing	167.0	5.23

Last season, Ortiz and Ponson blocked Scott Baker and Kevin Slowey, two young arms that provided the team with quality innings last season and will potentially be integral components of the rotation. Clearly tapping Hernandez is yet another message that the front office is once again buttressing the 2008 rotation, unable to commit to the young organizational talent. The Twins should learn their own lesson from 2007: let the youngster eat the innings.

*The cereal brand might not correct, but it was some sort of high-fiber, non-sugary stuff. Apologies to the Muesli people.

Best and Worst Acquisitions of 2007 (Frugality Free Agent/Trade Division)

One thing the Twins do a good job on is identifying minor league talent in the lower levels that blossom into useful parts (Liriano, Barlett, Casilla, Bonser, etc). This has been a tool that has kept the budget low. However, the Twins have been as bad as anybody when it comes to finding inexpensive existing talent. In recent memory, the Twins have tried Ramon Ortiz, Sidney Ponson, Rondell White, Jeff Cirillo, Tony Batista, Ruben Sierra, Phil Nevin, Brett Boone, and Jose Offerman.

The only acquisition that I can think of that provided consistent production all season was Kenny Rogers (who happened to be a last second signing during the 2003 spring training). Maybe it was that the Twins didn't have time to think or didn't have any other options, whatever the case might have been, this was a happy accident. It seems that premeditation into the free agent market was not Terry Ryan's strong suit. Naturally, most of the guys listed below are players that were also happy accidents. Then again, most also had previous track records that indicated there was a history of success at various levels.

I will withhold judgement on the Bill Smith seeing as that Adam Everett and Mike Lamb have yet to play an inning in the Twins uniform, but the recent chatter revolving around signing another "veteran arm" has me thinking "Meet the new boss; same as the old boss".

Carlos Pena | 1B | Tampa Bay | 19 WSAB | $800,000

How Acquired: Signed a minor league contract with a spring training invite February 1st, 2007.

Once viewed as the best prospect in both the Rangers and A's organizations, Pena (along with Jeremy Bonderman and Franklyn German) was shipped to Detroit in the three-way trade with New York and Oakland. Given the opportunity in Motown to play first base everyday, Pena showed great power in a vast Comerica ballpark but seemed over-matched by major league pitching. His walk rate had decreased from the minors. He fell out of favor in Detroit. After being released by the Tigers in March 2006, the Yankees picked him up in April and stuck him in the minors. Without seeing the Big Ballpark in the Bronx, Pena was dropped by New York August 16th, 2006 and was picked up by Boston the very next day. Given only 37 plate appearances with Boston, he was granted his free agency at the end of the season.

He started the 2007 season as a non-roster invitation to Devil Rays spring training and finished as the American League's Comeback Player of the Year. While hitting line drives in 21% of balls in play, he displayed the power that was always there with 46 home runs (second only to Alex Rodriguez), magnified by a .345 isolated slugging average. Pena's home run every 10.2 at-bats was the best in the American League. To show that he was not just a freeswinger, Pena walked in 18.0% of his plate appearances too. Pena's .282/.411/.627 batting line was one of the best in the American League and his 1.038 OPS was 5th best in the league as well. Of course any GM can retrospectively ask themselves why they did not take a flyer out on him, proving once again that minor league numbers do predict major league ability in various ways. His monster year was rewarded with a 3 year/$24.1 million dollar contract in the off-season.

Jack Cust | DH-OF | Oakland | 12 WSAB | $380,000

How Acquired: Traded from San Diego May 8th, 2007.

Almost destined to be an asterisks in the baseball history as an "AAAA" player, Cust was rescued from Crash Davis status by Billy Beane and the Oakland A's in May 2007 at the cost of A Player to Be Named Later from San Diego. His minor league track record show that Cust contained the qualities that Beane and the A's front office lusted over: patience and power. The same qualities that could have benefited the Twins as well. Inserted immediately as a designated hitter and outfielder, the small gamble paid dividends.

Cust finished with 26 home runs (.248 isop) and a .256/.408/.504 batting line, not bad for someone toiling in the International and Pacific Coast Leagues. He led the American League in strikeouts with 164 (a 32.2% k%) but offset this by being 2nd in walks with 105 (21.0% bb%). The feelgoodery surrounding his story is somewhat tainted by the PED allegations contain in the Mitchell Report, those of which Cust vehemently denies (like everyone else still with a career to worry about).

Ted Lilly | LHP-S | Chicago Cubs | 10 WSAB | $5 million

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent December 6th, 2006.

I know. Last off-season I bemoaned this acquisition and deemed it foolhardy for the Cubs to sink what was a substantial contract at the time to a pitcher that had an era consistently above league average. I admit, I have eaten a nice foot sandwich. After the 2007 ended, Lilly has proven to be one of the most cost-effective free agent starters. He compiled a 15-8 record with a 3.83 era. For the first time in his career, he had thrown over 200 innings (207) and has improved his control by decreasing his walk rate from 10.2% in Toronto to 6.4% in Chicago.

Also a member of the Yankees-A's-Tigers trade involving Pena, Weaver and Bonderman, Lilly spent most of his career being spanked in the American League. I do believe that Lilly is more effective as an National League starter as he had the long-ball problems facing some of the AL top sluggers, so his numbers may not have reflected as well had he played in the Dome. I speculated that he would be punished in his new home Wrigley Field. While he did surrender a higher home run rate at the Friendly Confines (4.1%) versus the road (2.1%), his control improvement helped avoid the dangerous multi-run home runs. His 1.14 whip was the 4th best in the National League (only Jake Peavy, Chris Young and Cole Hamels finished better).

Gil Meche | RHP-S | Kansas City | 9 WSAB | $7 million

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent December 7th, 2006.

A lot of money for a sub-.500 team to invest in a starting pitcher without the proper upgrades surrounding him, however Meche did everything he could have done to earn his money. Even though his record was below .500, a he finished with a 9-13 record, a 3.67 era (122 era+), and led the league in games started (34), he still earned a place on the All-Star team. Had Meche thrown for the Twins, his record would have been vastly better (maybe inverse those win-loss numbers). This, of course, is not a signing the Twins would have considered. Instead, they sank little money into Ramon Ortiz and Sidney Ponson in the efforts that proved minimal risk and minimal reward.

Being 29-year-old Meche has plenty of life in his arm. Some day when the Royals prospects like Gordon, Butler and Teaham all hit their stride at the same time, this could be a formidable opponent in the AL Central. I due question, however, the Royals front office's ability to provide Meche with ample support. The bullpen is looking solid with Joakim Soria (listed later) and David Riske but the rotation will be suspect. What starts to make this a hefty contract is that is back end is awfully pricey: He is due $11-million per year the next two seasons and then $12 per year the two seasons after that. I still have the sneaking suspicion that he could migrate to the "worst contracts" list in the next few years.

Jeremy Guthrie | RHP-S | Baltimore | 9 WSAB | $380,000

How Acquired: Selected off waivers January 29th, 2007.

Guthrie was drafted by the Cleveland Indians as the 22nd pick overall in the 2002 amateur draft and after several aborted attempts at cracking the Indians major league roster, Cleveland put him on the waivers where he was nabbed by Baltimore -- which was after Tampa Bay and Kansas City passed on him. The Twins would have never gotten a crack at him considering they had just visited the playoffs and were sitting low on the waiver wire list. The Twins currently have plenty of pitchers that have the same type of tools as Guthrie, still, you can't help but wonder what 2008 might look like with him in the mix following his breakout 2007 campaign.

He emerged in Baltimore as solid starter, appearing in 32 games and making 26 starts. He completed 175 innings with 123 strike outs (17.0% k%), a 7-5 record and a 3.70 era. In addition, his 1.20 whip was good enough for 9th in the AL. Guthrie will now be counted on to deliver a similar performance now that the Orioles have traded Erik Bedard to Seattle. He was hit hard in August (6.23 era in 34.2 innings) and September (4.50 era in 16 innings) which may raise some red-flags for those looking to blame a fluky season.

Jayson Werth | RF | Philadelphia | 8 WSAB | $850,000

How Acquired: Signed as a minor league contract with a spring training invite December 19th, 2006.

Comes from a good line of baseball lineage including Dick Schofield (grandfather) and Dick Schofield (uncle). Oh, and stepson of Dennis Werth. So not quite the Aarons, DiMaggios or even Cansecos, but it is something.

From 2002 to 2005, Jayson split time between Toronto and Los Angeles Dodgers as essentially a spare part. While mostly a role player in the outfield, Werth had a decent 2004 with the Dodgers where he had an .824 ops. Signed as a minor league free agent, the Phillies gave him 255 at-bats and Werth responded by hitting .298/.404/.459. He bested his previous career high in ops (.824) with an .863 one. While doing nothing spectacular, Werth hit line drives at a 22% clip and accumulated a .391 babip.

In 2007, Werth mashed left-handed pitching, hitting .375/.467/.591 in 106 plate appearance. Once again, I will bring up the Twins inability to hit left-handed pitching last year - mostly due to the unforeseen injury to Rondell White keeping them void of a right-handed power bat. His future has him pegged as a platoon partner with the newly acquired lefty Geoff Jenkins.

Dmitri Young | DH-1B | Washington | 7 WSAB | $500,000

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent February 14th, 2007.

It seemed that everytime the Twins played the Tigers, Bert Blyleven would remind those of us watching on FoxSportsNet how desirous the Twins were over Young. It was the trade that never took place, possibly because Tigers were asking too much for Young who was best defensively suited for designated hitter. After some domestic situations, the Tiger finally released Young in September 2006 (to his dismay) and let anyone take a crack at him. The Twins, already loaded with Rondell White and Justin Morneau at dh and first base, had no really need for the switch hitter. Nevertheless, for $500,000 and a invitation to Ft Myers extended to the 33-year-old they once coveted, the Twins could have had one of the least expensive, most productive hitters in 2007.

Young finished .320/.378/.491 with 13 home runs and was spraying line drives in 22% of his balls in play. It was good enough to get him on the 2007 National League All Star roster. The Nationals extended Young's contract for two more seasons but now faces the problem of having Nick Johnson finally return in 2008.

Russ Springer | RHP-R | St. Louis | 7 WSAB | $1.75 million

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent December 9th, 2006.

Call this season an aberration or a fluke, but Springer was legit in the Cardinals bullpen. His low era (2.18) was reaffirmed by his low FIP (2.77) while his strikeout rate was high (25.7%) and his walk rate was low (7.4%). Springer's whip was under 1.00 (0.909) and he threw a little under one inning per appearance (0.88) and managed to vulture 8 victories during that time, reminiscent of Tony Fiore. Sure, the Twins have plenty of bullpen arms, but take this acquisition as a blueprint in case the well runs dry.

Matt Stairs | DH-1B | Toronto | 7 WSAB | $850,000

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent December 12th, 2006

Better viewed as a beer league softball player or a "Bigger Loser" contestant midway through the series, Stairs proved that you don't have to look pretty to hit pretty. "I've got a beer gut. I've got a goatee and long hair. I'm a rebel. I enjoy life. I don't think I'm better than anyone. I always treat people with respect, because if I didn't, my old man would whup my ass." Stairs described himself to the San Francisco Examiner in 2000 while with Oakland.

Toronto was rewarded for not passing judgement on the portly Canadian native (St. Johns, New Brunswick), who supplied them with 21 home runs and a .289/.368/.529 season. His isolated slugging average was a hefty .260 as Stairs crushed line drives in 20% of the balls in play. Similar to Dmitri Young, the Twins did not have starting room for Stairs at either first base or dh, but having this kind of potent bat on the bench would have been wonderful. In 2008 at the rip age of 40, Stairs will find himself behind Frank Thomas and Lyle Overbay but would be a very good insurance policy once again.

Joakim Soria | RHP-R | Kansas City | 7 WSAB | $360,000

How Acquired: Drafted from San Diego in the Rule 5 draft on December 6th, 2006.

There hasn't been too many Kansas City relief pitchers in recent memory that came into face the Twins with a lead and I've thought: "Game over". When Soria was first deployed on April 22nd against the Twins at Kauffman, I had yet to hear of Soria - aside from the fact that he had pitched in the Mexican League. Asked to get the heart of the Twins order in the top of the ninth, Soria got Cuddyer to ground out to second, struck out Morneau looking, gave up a bunt single to Torii and then closed it out by striking out Redmond to earn his 2nd career save. If that wasn't enough, two days later he again saved a 4-3 game at the Metrodome by pitching the 8th and 9th. Soria has legit stuff.

In his 69 innings pitched, Soria whiffed 27.8% of his batters faced with a minimal 7.0% walk rate. He finished with 17 saves finally solidifying the backend of the Royals bullpen in 2008.

Sammy Sosa | DH-RF | Texas | 6 WSAB | $500,000 ($2 million with bonuses)

How Acquired: Signed as a Free Agent January 30th, 2007.

After missing the 2006 season, it was hard to believe that Sosa would have provided any offensive production to a major league team, especially after his stint in Baltimore. There were plenty of doubters: "But if the new Sammy becomes the old Sammy, then this marriage between Sosa and the Texas Rangers will end in either a quickie annulment or a messy divorce," wrote Gene Wojciechowski in ESPN preparing us all for what seemed would be a collision course with a May release of Slammin' Sammy. Still he proved everyone wrong and did what he was known for and socked the ball around, hitting 21 home runs with an isop of .216. The Twins, lacking any sort of right-handed designated hitter should have been shopping for a player like this: He absolutely crushed left-handed pitching. His .328/.410/.613 (1.024 ops) would have done wonders for the punchless Twins lineup against the lefties in the AL Central.

Still on the market as of February 10th, Sosa remains the kind of player the Twins should consider extending a contract to to battle Craig Monroe as the 4th outfielder/right handed designated hitter. The Dallas Morning Star is suggesting that Sosa believes he can get $8 million for the 2008, which would price him right out of the Twin Cities.

Josh Hamilton | OF | Cincinnati | 6 WSAB | $350,000

How Acquired: Drafted by the Chicago Cubs from Tampa Bay in the 2006 Rule 5 draft. Cincinnati traded Chicago for him.

Overcoming adversity. Wrestling with personal demons. Whatever media cliche you want to use for Hamilton, insert it now and get past it because he has done so with his sorted past that involved "a bottle of Crown Royal a day with cocaine or crack". There are plenty of storys involving Hamiton's faith-based career resurrection. I sometimes question how this would play out in the Twins clubhouse (considering the reaction Gary Gaetti's highly publicized and vocal faith played out with the team). It would appear that as opposed to some teams like the Atlanta Braves, which have sermons at the ballpark (hosted by John Smoltz), the Twins are quite the non-denominational club. Nevertheless, I wouldn't have minded if Hamilton was wiccan or a snake-handler the way he raked in 2007. His belated rookie season came complete with 19 home runs (.262 isop) and .292/.368/.554 batting line in only 298 at-bats. Now with Texas, I would expect that his power numbers would increase due to the Ballpark at Arlington's hitter-friendly atmosphere.

AL Central Round-Up. 2/5/08.

Chicago White Sox

• The Chicago Tribune does a nice job of making Carlos Quentin appear to be a mental midget. Which is a good fit in the South Side where everyone from Carl Everett to Brian Anderson to Billy Koch, hell, to Ozzie Guillen and Kenny Williams have been questioned for their makeup. When the White Sox swapped low-A masher Chris Carter for triple-A/mlb ready prospect Carlos Quentin they essentially received what they had already had stockpiled: a corner outfielder. The White Sox have Jermaine Dye, Josh Fields and now Nick Swisher, it would seem that Quentin does not have a guaranteed spot. Even manager Ozzie Guillen doesn't know what to quite make of him: "If Quentin plays the way people talk about him, oh, my goodness," Sox manager Ozzie Guillen told the Tribune. "I've got to make my own decision because I've never seen him play." Quentin has been accused of "tinkering" with his swing at the slightest sign of a slump and has employed "mental coaching" as part of his conditioning.
• What is ironic is what the Sox could have really used is a centerfielder-type like Chris Young, whom along with Justin Upton and Eric Byrnes, was blocking Quentin in the D'Backs organization. Young was acquired from the White Sox in December, 2005 along with Orlando Hernandez and Luis Vizcaino for Javier Vazquez. Last season, for $12.5 million, Vazquez contributed 19 win shares. For a fraction of that ($380,000) Young contributed 16 win shares to the Diamondbacks. This is just one of many trades that Kenny Williams will be regretting.
• Speaking of regrettable Williams orchestrated trades, here is a whole slew of them that will benefit the Oakland A's come 2010.
• In a rather minor trade, the White Sox shipped flame-throwing rhp David Aardsma to the Boston Red Sox for two low-A relievers. This might be another case on a team giving up way too early on a decent arm. Despite his wild spells (walk rate of 11.3% in 2007), Aardsma can get the strike out (23.5% strike out rate). His detriment was lack of defense - opponents hit over .400 on balls put in play. If the Red Sox can harness his control, he has the potential to be a lights-out set-up guy.

Cleveland Indians

• One good thing that may have come from parting with Johan Santana is now CC Sabathia may be priced out of Cleveland. The Plain Dealer's Paul Hoynes:

The average annual value of the offer is between $17 million and $18 million a year. Carlos Zambrano's AAV with the Cubs is $18.3 million. Jake Peavy's AAV is $17.3 million for his new three-year extension with San Diego. The Indians' offer fits well there, especially since Sabathia and Peavy are the defending Cy Young winners.

The problem is the six-year, $137.5 million extension Johan Santana signed Friday with the Mets to complete his trade from Minnesota. Santana's contract averages $22.92 million a year.

It's hard to expect the Indians to meet New York prices, but they're probably going to have make adjustments because Sabathia, who compares favorable with Santana in many statistical categories, is a free agent after the 2008 season.

• You have to admire the frankness of the Indians front office. When pressed by the repercussions of the Santana trade-and-sign GM Mark Shapiro told ESPN: "Recognizing the market we're operating in, we have to be aware of risk and we have to be careful," Shapiro said. "There are people like C.C. who will push the boundaries of our risk tolerance. C.C., because of who he is as a person, as a teammate, as a man and what he can do on the mound, will push the boundaries of our risk tolerance. Frankly, he already has." Assistant General Manager Chris Antonetti echoed Shapiro's sentiment by saying "It varies according to the level of risk. We have guidelines and parameters that are important to us based on the success and failure of previous contracts. But each contract and each player is unique."
• For those of you who think that a new stadium is a blank check, please reference the statement above and the Indians franchise on the whole. The Jake cum Progressive Field hasn't faced much of a problem selling tickets yet Cleveland will still be hard-pressed to retain the best left-handed pitcher remaining in the AL Central. You can use the "miserly owner" as the scapegoat but in the end it will come back to the market-size and revenue generated. Had Victory Sports Network caught on as the premiere channel to watch Twins games, we might be seeing an escalation in the budget (and the retention of one Johan Santana). This revenue stream has done wonders for Boston and New York. Then again, it has failed in Kansas City where they will be broadcasting on FoxSports instead of their own station.
• The Indians also signed Jorge Julio to a minor league contract. A right-handed relief arm, Julio had a good resurgence with the Rockies last season as he turned in a 3.93 era in 52.2 innings of work. He finished with a 22.6% strike out rate and a 9.0% walk rate. This is a cheap contract that if Julio is able to regain his 2007 composure, he would be another decent (and inexpensive) option in the bullpen.

Detroit Tigers

• With the escalating costs of genuine centerfielders, this multi-year contract with Curtis Granderson might have been the best off-season move the Tigers made. Totaling 5-years, $30.25 million, Granderson will make $1 million in 2008 and then $10 million in 2011. Last season Granderson put up nearly identical offensive numbers to the NL MVP Jimmy Rollins (who will be making $5 million next year). He strikes out in 20%+ of his plate appearances but it is hard to argue against a .912 ops. With the kind of ground he covers at Comerica, Granderson should also be considered for an MVP at some point in his career. Plus I love the fact that Granderson is a Northwoods League alum. Kind of makes him "one of us".
• As the Tigers start emerging as the premier hated big-budget team in the AL Central that has worn out its feel-good story, I will definitely root for Anthony Tomey after reading this Detroit Free Press article about the Tigers farm hand that also owns a Jimmy Johns sub shop. There is something life-affirming when reading that after the on-slaught of the Santana salary negotiations.

Kansas City Royals

• After giving up on a useful role player like Emil Brown, the Royals re-sign un-useful Esteban German to a one-year, $1-million contract. Joe Posnanski summarized the feelings of the Royals faithful in Brown, who was their Lew Ford type. While German had a solid 2006 hitting .326/.414/.459 in 331 plate appearances, he came back to earth in 2007 finishing .264/.374/.396 in 401 plate appearance. If Brown is the equivalent to Lew Ford, German is the Nick Punto of the Kansas City Royals.
• Here's something that might make some Royals fans happy: the future (Now in top ten prospect flavor! Still with that great Baseball America taste!).
• Speaking of Posnanski, since he is the best thing to come out of Kansas City besides I-35, check out his blog yesterday. Solid stuff on the Super Bowl, but great scene in which he riffs the creation of Gilligan's Island.

Minnesota Twins

• Somebody named Santana was traded.
• Dear Anybody Who Will Listen At the Twins Front Office: Please do not sign Josh Fogg. At Fangraph, there are plenty of visual evidence why the Twins should not sign Josh Fogg. Including this nugget of oppenent batting average. Yuck.
• 
• You want more? How about a WHIP comparison...
• 
• I love sifting through archives of local newspapers. That is why I dig the Star Tribune's Yesterday News blog. This article covering the 1976 Bert Blyleven trade is priceless. The caption under the photograph of Bert reads that he is 19-years-old. I have to say that he doesn't look a day under 47 in that. You decide. La Velle took a crack at the new Top Twenty Twins Prospects in lieu of the Santana trade.
• Seth gives his rundown of the 2008 Twins roster. One thing that is glaring to me is the abscence of Glen Perkins. Yes, he had the arm issues, but I truly think that Perkins will emerge as a solid candidate in spring training.
• The Gleeman is running down the Top Forty Prospects in the system.
• According to Jayson Stark, the Mets might take another option off of our table: Kenny Lofton.

Most Improved Prospects (Increased Strike Out Rate Edition)

We have all witnessed the rising cost of major league ready pitching talent. We have beared witness to Carlos Silva being awarded a 4-year, $44-million dollar contract. Kyle Lohse, a marginal starter at best, has recently said he is relinquishing his previous Gil Meche-type contract demands, is still in a market that will pay him well above his talent level. The Twins are not able to play this game. The internal pipeline of pitching prospects must always be full in order for the team to remain financially competitive against those that can spend far, far too much for your Silvas and Lohses.

As a rough guide: 13-15% is good/questionable (as you will see is case with Waldrop below), 16-18% is solid, 19-21% is great and 22%+ is phenomenal. Now these numbers carry different weight at different levels. Having a 24% strike out rate for the GCL Twins is completely different from having the same for the Rochester Red Wings. For example, Ryan Mullins spent 2006 with Beloit and finished with a 20.4% strike out rate. The following year the Twins moved him through high-A to triple-A in a single seasons where his strike out rate flattened to 10.1% of total batters faced. Typically, strike out totals tend to equalize as pitchers ascend in the system and encounter more polished competition. Therefore you will witness strikeout rates leveling out or even decreasing. As is the case with Yohan Pino. In 2006, Yohan Pino had a 26.3% strike out rate while in the Midwest League. In the following season split between high-A Ft Myers and double-A New Britain, Pino's strike out rate dropped to 22%. 22% is extremely studly so it goes to show that no matter how strong the prospect is, there still can be incremental drops.

There will undoubtedly be inherent flaws when judging prospects by one piece of the puzzle. This, however, highlights some aspects of one very necessary component of reaching the major league level: making bats miss.

This is not a complete assessment of the organization's pitching talent. Because of the minimum 200 batters faced, Jeff Manship, the pitcher who led the Twins minor leagues in strikeouts in 2007 (136), is excluded from this study (for reference, he had a 22.5% strike out rate). Additionally, a prospect whose strike out rate stays consistent throughout the minor league development is still a solid prospect so long as the strike out rate is about 17% or better as they progress.

Between 2006 and 2007, the Twins have had several of their prospects make significant inward adjustments in their mastery of the strike zone:

5) Kyle Waldrop - 13.1% in 2006/13.6% in 2007 - increase of 0.5%

Yes, it is a small incremental change but a positive change, nonetheless, and made in a season where he split two levels: high-A to double-A. Waldrop was drafted by the Twins in the 1st round (25th overall) out of Farragut High School In Knoxville, Tennessee. The Twins gave him a million dollar signing bonus to stay away from college.

“[T]hat definitely made me open up my eyes a little bit bigger,” Waldrop told his former high school's newspaper in 2004. “If they’re going to invest that much money in you, they’re going to give you every shot to make the major leagues. Being that twenty-fifth pick, they’re not going to give up on you as easily as they might if you’re a (30th)-round pick they give $5,000 to.”

In his first professional season at 18, Waldrop spent time in the Gulf Coast League and Elizabethon where he went 5-2 in 11 starts with a 2.14 era in addition to 55 strike outs in 62 innings. At the end of 2004, Baseball America had him ranked as the 6th overall prospect in the organization. The Twins moved him up to Beloit in the Midwest League in 2005 and he faltered as a 19-year-old, finishing 6-11 with a high 4.98 era. In 2006, he regain his prospect form as indicated by a 9-5 record with a 3.77 era shared between Beloit and Ft Myers. It was at those two stops that Waldrop struck out 13.1% (87 k's) of his total batters faced. Last season, Waldrop started the season 7-5 at Ft Myers in a performance that earned him a promotion to double-A New Britain where he finished 3-6 in 11 starts. While pitching at two higher levels, Waldrop improved his strike out rate to 13.6% (90 k's). In this August 2007 video of Kyle pitching against the Brevard County Manatees (Brewers), you will notice that Waldrop has a fairly short stride for his 6'5" frame. Still, you can't argue against results: he struck out 3 Manatees and allowed only 4 hits and 1 run in 7 innings of work.

His stock has slide greatly in the organization, from at one point being the 6th overall prospect in the BA rankings to not even being a blip on the top 20 for Sickel's list. Even though his 10-11 record in 2007 doesn't look great, he has proven that he has good control (90 strike outs to 43 walks), and if in 2008 he keeps the ball in the park (7.0% HR/FB at double-A) the Twins will still have a million reasons to keep moving him up in the organization.

4)Anthony Swarzak - 21.4% in 2006/22.3% in 2007 - increase of 0.9%

This image is from unknown origins but I think you can get that general idea: Swarzak is one hell of a power pitcher. He shows good balance and torque as he drive the his front hip towards home plate and swings that back leg hard. If you need further evidence, here is a youtube clip of him from May 26th, 2007. The Twins' second round pick in 2004, Swarzak began in the GCL where he struck out 42 in 48 innings of work. Like Waldrop, Swarzak was also ranked in the top ten following the 2004 (as the Twins 7th overall prospect, one behind Kyle). He was then elevated in the next season to Beloit (where he was a Midwest League all-star) and then to Ft Myers where he compiled a 12-9 record with a 3.89 era and 156 strike outs in 150.1 innings of work (24.2% k%). 2006 was more of the same dominance of the Florida State League. Swarzak struck out 21.4% of batters faced and finished 11-7 while leading the league in strike outs (131). In early 2007, Swarzak was cited for drug use (non-PED if that matters) by the league and was suspended for 50-games. Losing those two months might have been costly for some prospects. Swarzak had a shakey start to his introduction to double-A New Britain where in April he opened up with an 11.11 era. In June he was sent back to Ft Myers to work out a few kinks, probably attributed to his suspension. He finished strong in the waning months of the season as he was recalled to the Eastern League and finished with a 22.3% strike out rate shared between New Britain and Ft Myers.

The debate rages regarding Swarzak: John Sickels calls Swarzak the number 2 prospect for the Twins moving into 2008 (now Waldrop doesn't even crack the top 20), locally, a Twinkie Town survey declared him the top prospect in the system ahead of Tyler Robertson. It is almost a guarantee that Swarzak will get a crack at the rotation in 2009 if he starts out strong in 2008.

3) Tyler Robertson - 25.2% in 2006/29.2% in 2007 - increase of 4%

Robertson is the 20-year-old left-hander that John Sickels anointed as the club's number 1 prospect, to some chagrin. Sickels went so far as to write a diatribe defending his choice. Allegedly, the source of this malcontent is "the mixed scouting reports. Baseball America says his fastball was just 87-90 last year. He threw 90-92 in high school. Midwest League observers I spoke with say he was anywhere in the 88-92 range last year, which makes the BA numbers sound a bit pessimistic; I guess our sources are a bit different. He has good breaking stuff and throws strikes. The main bugaboo for scouts is his delivery, which is stiff, looks funny, and gives rise to fear about injuries. He's smoothed it out a bit, but given that he repeats it well, is his injury risk really any higher than it is for any other pitcher his age? I'm not convinced of that."

In the Gulf Coast League, Robertson torched batters at a 25.2% rate. His era was high (4.25) but in context to his FIP (2.81) you can obviously see he was pitching much better than that indicated. If there were any doubters, Robertson moved up to low-A Beloit and improved his strike out rate to 29.2%. Any way you slice it, 123 strike outs in 102.1 innings in the Midwest League is fantastic (even better for a 19-year-old).

I tend to believe that the reason most analysts are leary of giving him the number 1 status (as evidence by the Twinkie Town poll) is that he hasn't played at a higher level. It is easier to hedge your bet on a pitcher that has ascended through the ranks, performed at an elite level and remained injury-free. So far, that is all that Robertson has done, to the extent of what has been asked of him. It is not his fault that the scouting director has not asked him to throw innings at New Britain yet. But that day may come as soon as 2008.

2) Brian Duensing - 13.5% in 2006/17.9% in 2007 - increase of 4.4%

This former Cornhusker drafted by the Twins in the third round in 2005 has been been a rising stock in the organization. John Sickels had elected to name Duensing as the 7th best prospect in the Twins organization after a 2007 in which he led the organization innings pitched (167) and wins (15 - tied with Jeff Manship). Baseball America named him the 18th best overall player in the Eastern League. A lefty that had undergone Tommy John his sophomore year at the University of Nebraska, performed well in his first season at Elizabethton finishing with 2.32 era and a 25.5% strike out rate. His 2006 campaign was all about mobility. He was pushed through the Midwest League, Florida State League and finally the Eastern League. When all was said and done, Duensing had a 5-10 record, a 3.51 era and a 1.30 whip. Unfortunately, his strike outs took a sharp decline. He was only able to induce 13.5% of batters faced to strike out (mostly because of a 14.2% k% while in his first stint at double-A).

Upon return to New Britain to begin 2007, Duensing increased his strike out rate to 18.4% (up from 14.2%) and limited walks to 3.2% of plate appearances. This improvement got Duensing raised to Rochester where he struggled somewhat at first, but completed August (20.5% k%) and September (26.9% k%) strong. His 15 victories with New Britain and Rochester was good enough for tops in the Twins minor league system.

He may pitch himself into the rotation come 2008.

1) Brian Bass - 11.6% in 2006/18.9% in 2007 - increase of 7.3%

Back in December, I wrote:

Brian Bass was resigned after the Twins initially granted him free agency. Drafted by the Royals out of high school in Alabama, Bass made his debut in rookie ball as an 18-year-old. As a Royals prospect, Bass spent the next three season bouncing between A and high. In 2004, the then 22-year-old Bass got 9 starts in Double-A Whicita. His performance left something to be desired: facing 180 batters, Bass walked more than he struckout. The Royals were still high on him despite his nagging injuries and frequent dead-arm spells. After splitting time between Double-A Whicita and Triple-A Omaha with mixed results, the Twins picked up Bass with the intention of using him in the bullpen. In 37 games last year, Bass made 10 starts for the Red Wings. Against 424 batters faced, Bass struck out 18.9% of them and walked only 5.2%, a sharp contrast from his days within the Royals organization when he had the weapons but lacked the control. Even more impressive was his ability to produce groundballs (57% GB rate). Bass made 9 starts for the Tigres de Aragua and continued where his Rochester season left off by walking 2 of the 92 batters he faced (2.2%) and striking out 16 of the 92 (17.2%). Of the balls put in play, 68% of them were on the ground. Rotoworld's analysis is that Bass could made a good swingman out of the Twins bullpen and judging from his 2007 numbers, that might be a good fit.

I believe you will see Bass returned to Rochester once the 2008 commences, however, his improvement - coupled with the Royals neglect of a solid pitching prospect - leads me to believe there is a major league appearance in the near future for Bass. It may come out of the bullpen, but it is something. At 26, Bass is getting a little long in the tooth to be considered a prospect.