The 2007 Minnesota Twins Draft Review: The Final Six.

(For the introduction and rounds one through ten, please click here. To review rounds eleven through twenty, click here.)

This is the area of the draft that is sometimes reserved for descendents of managers (Toby Gardenhire, 41st round in 2005, prior to that, 38th in 2002. Prior to that in 1984, Billy Gardner's kid was draft in the 37th round), local high school athletes chosen possibly to save on the scouting travel budget (Many, including former Wisconsin Badgers QB and Holy Angels (Richfield) graduate Jon Stocco was selected at 45th in 2002 while in 1999 with the very same choice the Twins opted for one Park Center graduate named Pat Neshek who declined and went to college instead), multi-tooled athletes that slipped because no one expects them to sign (1999's 22nd round selection of current Bear and hate crime instigator Ricky Manning Jr) or hidden front office desires that only manifest themselves in later transactions (Nick Punto in the 33rd round in the 1997 draft who decline a contract only to later be included in on the Eric Milton trade. A year prior to that in 1996, they had selected Mike Lamb - who did not sign as well - in the 31st round). Either way, few sign, even fewer make legitimate contributions to the big club. Then again, in 1995 with their 26th round choice, the Twins picked a third baseman/volleyball player out of a small college in Dugald, Manitoba named Corey Koskie.

From picks twenty-one through fifty, the Twins only inked six:

r21.662) Ozzie Lewis - 21-years-old - of

With the 662nd pick overall, the Twins selected a right-handed batting outfielder out of Fresno State. In a outfielder deficient organization, Lewis had an impressive season with Elizabethton, even being named the Appalachian League's Player of the Year. By the standard numbers Lewis did quite well as noted by his .323/.375/.523 batting line in a league whose average is .257/.333/.379 adding an ops that was 186 points higher than the league. His powerful 6'5" frame helped him generate power too: he finished the year with a .200 isolated slugging average where he hit 9 home runs, 18 doubles and 1 triple: that's a whopping 28 extra base hits in 72 hits total (38.8% of his hits went for extra bases). In typical slugger fashion, Lewis strikes out a considerable amount (19.9% k%) and walks less than he should (7.3% bb%) but his contact is good, screaming line drives all over the field in 17% of his balls in play. His babip is high (.385) and will readjust next season and likely see his batting average dip some. While some think plate disipline cannot not be acquired, only time will tell if Lewis can make the necessary adjustments as the competition gets better next season.

r24.752) Charles Nolte - 21-years-old - rhp (rp)

This 752nd pick overall comes fresh from season-ending surgery in 2005 where Nolte was pitching for San Diego State. With the GCL Twins, Nolte pitched in 14 games, accruing 24.1 innings. Nothing less than an extreme groundball pitcher would be the most accruate potrait of Nolte as he managed to induce groundballs on 74% of balls in play which not surrendering a home run. His 3-0 record and 1.85 era is impressive however he is a tad wild. He has walked 10.6% of the 104 batters faced but has struck out 21.2% of those. So effectively wild? Then again, as a middle reliever the last thing you want to do is start adding baserunners when the score is close.

r25.782) Spencer Steedley - 22-years-old - lhp (rp)

From UNC-Charlotte, Steedley had a respectable season with Elizabethton. While is 2-3 record doesn't look impressive, Steedley finished the season strong. His professional career and the month of June started off on the wrong foot. His walk rate was high (11.1%), his era matched (6.75), and a babip was equally as high (.333), it appeared that moving him permanently from a position player to a pitcher might be a mistake. His saving grace was his ability to get a strike out (22.2% of batters faced). His numbers began to improve in July and by the end of August, Steedley was reaffirming the Twins in their decision to move him to the mound: his walk rate had melted (3.3%), his strike out rate grew exponentially (37.7%), the balls put in play were no longer finding green grass (.226) and his August era reflected this improvement (2.30). If his 2008 season starts like the 2007 season ended, he might have the ability to advance. If he regresses into his June form, he might find himself back in Carolina.

r36.1105) Dominique Rodgers - 22-years-old - rhp (rp)

Played at Kent State and in his short amount of work for the GCL Twins (just 9.2 innings), Rhodes faced a total of 47 batters and had an inflated era of 4.66. I don't like to judge players on their standard numbers as much alone (i.e. era, rbi, etc), but when you give up 10 hits and 6 walks in that short amount of time too it would appear that you might not be able to cut it.

r38.1161) Chris Cates - 22-years-old - ss

.202/.262/.235. 3 extra base hits (all doubles) in 144 plate appearances. The numbers are as small as the player (cheap shot, I know). I can't defend them but they are while playing for the Beloit Snappers in the Midwest League. He's living the dream. Kudos.

r43.1294) Andres Diaz - 19-years-old - c

The Twins picked him in 2006 with their 966th pick in the 32nd round but he declined to sign. Not much to report on his inaugural season. Only managed to find himself in four games and got eleven plate appearances.

The 2007 Minnesota Twins Draft Review: Continuum.

This is a continuation of sorting through the statistical deluge that is the first seasons of the Twins 2007 amateur draft picks. Please click here if you want the full round 1 through 10 rundown. While initial reviews had condemned some of the Twins selections as frugal and misguided (particularly Keith Law's ESPN and Carlos Gomez's Hardball Times diatribes bashing the Ben Revere pick), but on the whole, it appears that while opportunities may have been wasted on the organization's behalf (i.e. too much focus on catchers) in the early rounds, the later picks too have contributed in their inaugural seasons. Frugal, yes. Misguided? You decide:

r11.362) Andrew Schmiesing - 21-years-old - of

Schmiesing, like Glen Perkins before him, was a standout athlete at Stillwater (all-conference in baseball, football and basketball) and opted to attend St. Olaf's in Northfield where he excelled on the diamond and the gridiron. Prior to the baseball draft, Patrick Ruesse penned an ode to the multi-sport Schmiesing and his impending decision: football or baseball. When the Twins selected the local standout with their 392nd overall pick, Schmiesing decided to forgo both a college degree and a football career and report to the Gulf Coast League. Once there, Schmiesing showed great plate discipline (walking in 13.5% of his plate appearances) and contact (12.8% strikeout rate) resulting in a .321 batting average and superb .421 on-base percentage (this from a league whose averages are .252 and .332 respectively). Lacking any significant power (a .037 isop and only 4 doubles), Schmiesing beat the ball into the ground far too frequently (50% gb%) coupled with a low line drive percentage (9% ld%) from someone with a 6'4" frame. If his power develops and he retains his plate awareness, Schmiesing has the potential advance within the organization.

r12.392) Michael Tarsi - 21-years-old - lhp (sp)

The first left-handed pitcher selected by the Twins, Tarsi, a graduate of UConn, was another immediate contributor to the Elizabethton Twins. The 6'8" lefty threw 52.2 innings in 11 starts which resulted in a 5-2 record and a minuscule 2.22 (in a league whose average is 4.17). He has good command of his pitches as evident by his 26.6% strikeout rate and low 5.9% walk rate. When batters were making contact he induced groundballs in 68% of balls in play and did not yield a home run. Tarsi is yet another good starting pitching prospect in an already good cadre of arms.

r14.452) Danny Rohlfing - 18-years-old - c

Another catcher selected by the Twins, this time from the St Louis, MO area, Rohlfing has had a tough first year for the GCL Twins. While playing against older competition (average of 20), Rohlfing finished with a .232/.313/.250 batting line, significantly lower than the league's .252/.332/.359 average. What's more, Rohlfing in his 64 plate appearances struck out 17.2% of the time. When he did make contact, Rohlfing hit groundballs in 56% of the ones in play. Rohlfing is still young enough to improve his performance next season and this does not spell doom for the young catcher however it does hinder his hopes for advancement in a system that is flush with catchers such as Rams and Lehmann elected in the same draft ahead of him (and as we will later see Ben Petsch drafted behind him).

r15.482) Daniel Latham - 23-years-old - rhp (rp)

Like Blair Erickson selected in the 10th round, Latham had considerable success as a college closer for Tulane University, his first professional season was not as rewarding. At Elizabethton, Latham's peripheral numbers were very good (26.2% k% and 2.4% bb%), however he gave up 14 earned runs (including 2 home runs) in 25.1 innings of work. His inflated era (4.91) seems to be isolated into one month. In 6 innings in July, Latham had an era of 12.00 as a result of a babip of .565 and only inducing groundballs on 27% of the balls hit in play. In spite of this, Latham did not walk anyone and he struck out 27.2% of the batters faced in that stretch. Ultimately, his 28-to-3 strikeouts-to-walks is indicative of someone who has good command and an out pitch. If he can keep hitters from making solid contact, increasing his groundball rate, Latham could be another useful reliever in the existing arsenal.

r16.512) Nelvin Fuentes - 18-years-old - lhp (rp)

Fuentes appears to be someone who is throwing to contact (read: finesse), especially when you consider his GCL Twins numbers (11.5% k%, 2.77 era and a low .194 babip). Unfortunately, his accuracy could use some help since he ended up walking 5 in 13 innings of relief (9.6% walk rate) which would negate the entire purpose of being a pitcher who pitches to contact. From the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, one might consider Fuentes to be a future LOOGY but gave up a .625 average against left-handed batters (5 hits) and struck out none. The ability to get left-handed batters out is a strong prerequisite for a lefty in the bullpen. Fuentes will have to adjust his approach and find the strikezone if he would like to advance in the system.

r18.572) Lee Martin - 21-years-old - rhp (rp)

Like Fuentes, Martin reported to the Gulf Coast League and performed well out of the bullpen when looking at the standard numbers. His 2-1 record coupled with a 3.21 era and 13 strikeouts looks good but his control looks suspect when you consider his 10.9% walk rate. Then again, of the 55 batters faced Martin managed to entice groundballs on 54% of balls in play. A few more season could correct his command.

r19.602) Ben Petsch - 23-years-old - c

Petsch had an electrifying season until a broken hand effectively sidelined him for the remainder of the 2007 season. A graduate of Belmont University in Nashville, Petsch started with Elizabethton and began campaigning as one of the more successful late round catchers selected. Drafted as a catcher in name only, Petsch has played all over the diamond including both corner outfield positions, first base and catcher. He spent most of his first season as a professional in left field (13 games). Offensively, Petsch showed patience, power and the ability to make consistent contact. In his 95 plate appearances in the Appalachian League, Petsch coaxed 21 walks (22.1% bb%), struck out only 15 times (15.8% k%), produced an isolated slugging average of .162, and sprayed line drives over the field at an 18% clip. Before receiving a promotion to the Midwest League, Petsch hit .311/.463/.473 resulting in an ops of .936 - 224 points above the league average. After Allan de San Migual was promoted from Beloit to Ft. Myers, the Twins took the opportunity to advance Petsch as well, having him fill de San Migual's roster spot. In 14 plate appearances for the Snappers, Petsch once again produced solid numbers including walking 4 times, knocking in 2 rbis and tripling once (leading to a .200 isop). Petsch will have to wait until next season to reaffirm his legitimacy, however with the numbers he has thus far provided, he certainly has the opportunity to be one of the better offensive prospects to watch in 2008.

Picks in rounds 21 thorugh 50 forthcoming (although only six of them signed)...

The 2007 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks: A Retrospective.

Not too long ago when I was in high school, Michael Lewis had yet to pen Moneyball, and Britney Spears was still a virgin, a student ballplayer from a rival school in my conference happened to be selected in the amateur drafted following my junior year. He was fast, tall and was spoken of by others as if he had all the tools. Frankly, he looked like a ballplayer but many of us were dubious of his skills simply because we were high school boys and generally skeptical of undue praise for other players. In the middle of the hype that brought various college coaches to the games, our pitcher claimed he was going to strike him out in four pitches each at-bat. Sure enough, in two consecutive at-bats, our pitcher set him up with inside fastballs only to get him lunging after two outside offspeed pitches. It was beautiful and this help garrison our notion that scouts were drafting on appearance rather than skill. After spending several seasons on the diamond with him, most of us ended up thinking that we were better than him, regardless of the amount of division one offers he would be receiving.

When he eventually got drafted in a very late round, there was a mini-mutiny from some of the juniors who began to think that our coach was not "repping" us enough to college coaches and scouts. To quell the small riot, in one of the rare nuggets of insight I remember my high school coach expounding on us shortly after the kid from the rival team would have been reporting to a rookie league or instructional camp, the coach gathered us around and hit us with some knowledge. He said "Major League draft picks are like sperm: only one in a billion is ever going to be productive."

Even though this statement did not relieve the idea that none of us would never be drafted (or play for a major college), I carry it with me whenever I review the five-billion rounds of draft picks. Even thought Michael Lewis and Billy Beane have since corrected me regarding the importance of the major league draft, I can't help but use the sperm metaphor (gross, but surprisingly accurate) when considering the most recent draft. After all, the minor league system is like a funnel where the strong advance and the weaker players are discarded back to the towns from whence they came. Some have troubles adapting to stronger pitching and wood bats. Some can't rely on two pitches alone that carried them through high school ball. The Twins Draft Class of '07 has finished jockeying for position in the rookie leagues. Here is a breakdown of picks in rounds one through ten following their first professional season:

r1.28) Ben Revere - 19-years-old - CF

After being questioned for selecting yet another powerless outfielder, the Twins were rewarded when 19-year-old Kentucky native Ben Revere demonstrated the qualities of a respectable draft pick in a half-season in the Gulf Coast Rookie League. In a league that averaged an ops of .691, Revere produced a .849 ops. The pre-draft analysis proved accurate when it came to his power and speed. His inability to hit the long ball (0 home runs) was apparent but he offset this with an isolated power average (isop) of .136 through 16 extra base hits (25.8% xbh%). Revere has the speed as indicated by his 21 stolen bases, however, getting caught stealing nine times ultimately cost team scoring opportunities, netting the team negative run production of -0.17. Overall he finished with a .325/.388/.461 line that earned him a spot on the GCL post-season all-star team. In comparison, Denard Span finished his first season in rookie ball Elizabethton with a paltry line of .271/.343/.319 and a ops that was below the league's average. Span, four years Revere's elder, followed up his first year with a season shared between the GCL and Midwest league and has played himself into a spot where he is no longer the centerfielder of the future. Revere also had a good split between righties and lefties. The left-handed Revere hit .299/.342/.438 in 144 at-bats against righties but handled lefties much better with a .404/.508/.532 line in 47 at-bats. Though 216 plate appearances are not enough to pass judgement, it would seem that Revere has more tools than previously thought and has a better chance of making an ascension to the big club.

r2.92) Daniel Rams - 19-years-old - C/1b

Reporting to GCL Twins in July, Daniel finished the season in typical fashion for a 19-year-old catcher. Displaying no significant power (no home runs, .093 isop), Rams had trouble adapting to the level of pitching that differed from what Gulliver Prep in Miami offered, striking out in 22 of his 107 plate appearances (20.6% k%) and managed to coax walks times (5.6% bb%) against GCL pitching. He finished the season with a middle infielder batting line of .258/.311/.361 but actually slugged better than the GCL average of .359. In 16 games behind the plate, Rams did not commit any errors. He carries great arm strength in his 222-lb frame. One scout told Baseball America that "whatever is the highest grade on your scale, that's what his arm is". Rams's large stature is could hinder his development as a catcher which is why the Twins are giving him reps at first base. Offensive improvement such as pitch recognition is a must for Rams if he expects to move beyond single-A ball.

r3.122) Angel Morales - 18-years-old - rf

Plucked from the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Morales was ranked number 198th on the pre-draft rankings by Baseball America when the Twins selected him 122nd overall. In his first season with the GCL Twins he lacked plate discipline as evident by his 30.3% strikeout rate (44 ks in 143 plate appearances). He finished the season with a respectable .256/.357/.405 and two home runs. Morales produced a .762 ops, 71 points higher than the league average which could indicate that he isn't over-matched but in need of more plate appearances. He also slugged 46 points higher than the league average as well. In an organization like the Twins that are hoping for outfield talent to develop, Morales will get all the slack in the world to see if he can develop as a hitter.

r4.152) Reggie Williams - 19-years-old - ss

Signed with the Twins on August 16th, 2007. Williams comes from an fairly athletic lineage which bodes well considering his father, Reggie Sr, was a football player who played for the Houston Oilers in addition to the Arizona Wranglers and LA Express of the USFL. Reggie Jr reported to the Instructional League in Ft. Myers in September.

r6.212) Michael McCardell - 23-years-old - rhp (sp)

Could be the steal-of-the-draft for the Twins at the 212 pick overall. A graduate of Kutztown University in Pennsylvania, whose motto is "Continue on...even if she says no" (no joke), McCardell is the first college graduate and pitcher that the Twins drafted which is probably not a coincidence. Currently John Sickel's number 10 Twins prospects, McCardell began 2007 blasting his way through the GCL (and much younger competition). In 67 batters faced, McCardell struck out 44 of them (40.2% k%) in addition to only walking 3 of them (2.9% bb%). Recognizing a need to challenge him, the Twins moved him up the farm system hierarchy having him start 8 games in Elizabethtown where he went 5-1 with a 2.00 era. He treated the offensive in the Appalachian League with the same disrespect, striking out 70 of the 174 batters faced (37.3% k%) while maintaining the same control as demonstrated by his 4.5% walk rate. In October he was deservedly named to Baseball America's Rookie All-Star team. While currently being developed to be a starter, I wouldn't might seeing McCardell be transitioned into the bullpen where he could replace Eduardo Morlan as the organization's future closer.

r7.242) Dan Berlind - 20-years-old - rhp (sp)

This 6'7", 210-lb Los Angeles native reported to the GCL Twins and finished with 56 innings, a 6-1 record and a 2.02 era. Like McCardell selected a round before him, Berlind is slightly older than the competition. But like McCardell before him too, Berlind dispatched the hitters like someone older should. Of 222 batters faced Berlind pined 52 of them (23.4% k%). He may have some control issue to massage (9.0% bb%) but it is more nitpicking on my part. Judging from this YouTube clip of him in junior college, you can see that he uses his size well: he stays tall and does not rush his delivery. His body does fly-open slightly on the pitches low and away. Often pitchers approaching his height have the tendency to rely only on the large arm-whip action. This to me says that he was already a well-groomed pitcher when the Twins spend their 242nd pick on him. A season in Elizabethton will undoubtedly help finesse the remaining raw thrower out of him and hopefully develop into yet another high-caliber Twins pitching prospect.

r8.272) Danny Lehmann - 22-years-old - c

Rice University's Danny Lehmann was the Twins's 272nd pick and the second catcher selected. While not having has many acclimates defensively as Rams, Lehmann put together a so-so year with Elizabethton. Finishing with a batting line of .221/.333/.364, Lehmann slugged 3 homers and bagged 2 doubles leading to a .143 isop. He made decent contact, striking out in only 11.1% of his plate appearances he also had a keen batting eye walking in 10.0% as well. The 5'11" catcher seems to beat the ball into the grass as evident by groundballs in 52.0% of his batted balls and managed to hit line drives in only 9% which resulted in a poor .219 babip. If his contact improves to the point where he is getting more air under the ball, Lehmann could be productive at the plate in the future.

r9.302) Steven Hirschfeld - 22-years-old -rhp (sp)

Yet another large statute pitcher (6'5", 220-lb), Hirschfeld, in his inaugural professional season, finished with Elizabethton 1-2 record with an era slightly higher (4.26) than the 4.17 Appalachian League average in 25.1 innings pitched. While this doesn't look particularly reaffirming, Hirschfeld essentially had one bad month. In June, he pitched 3.0 innings of shut-out ball. July proved more tumultuous where his 17.1 innings resulted in a 6.23 era. His babip was an inflated .308 but he did strikeout 18.3% of his 71 batters faced and walked only 4.3%. It would appear that he was working up in the zone considering his groundball rate was 33%. In his 5.0 innings of work in August, Hirschfeld did not allow a run in 19 batters faced. When they did make contact against him in August 82% of them were groundballs. While his bookend months were solid, the 8.o innings of shut-out ball just isn't enough to pass judgement on a pitcher. If his strikeout rate/walk rate remains consistent next season, Hirschfeld could prove to be a good draft pick in round 9.

r10.332) Blair Erickson - 23-years-old - rhp (rp)

The UC Irvine closer who holds the NCAA record for saves with 53 entered Elizabethton with the same late-innings dominance that he had while with the Anteaters. In 17.2 innings, Erickson struck out 17 (22.5% k%) and surrendered only 14 hits with his very good 68% groundball rate. Brewerfan.net reports that Erickson's fastball has lost some velocity (now in the 87-91 range) prior to the 2007 season and his slider has lost its bite. Dispite all the initial reports, his first-year results were good. His performance might attributed to being two years older than league average but he still proved to be overpowering. In the wake of the Eduardo Morlan trade and losing Tim Lehay in the Rule 5 draft, Erickson has the opportunity to aggressively advance within the Twins farm system as a closer.

Analysis of picks 11 through 20 forthcoming later this week...

Most Improved Prospects (Increased Plate Awareness Edition)

The Oakland Athletics have a keen eye for finding prospects that have the ability to get on base through walks whether it be the highly touted prospects like Carlos Pena and Daric Barton (who had a 13.0% walk rate in Triple-A) to Jack Hannahan* who was an solid mid-season acquisition that once again was plucked from another organization that did not value the walk. Jack Cust had an obscene walk rate of 24.4% in 2006 and was still not given the chance at the major league level until Oakland acquired him. Even newly pilfered prospects from the Diamondbacks organization in the Dan Haren trade have a history of patience. Billy Beane realized early on that one of the hardest things to teach is plate discipline, so he has stocked his farm system with batters that have a good idea of the strike zone. Patience has never been a strong virtue practiced by the Twins nor has it been a trait targeted when acquiring prospective talent. It stands to reason that having a roster of players that a) do not swing at bad pitches, b) makes the pitcher throw more pitches then necessary and c) gets on base in the process is a good philosophical building block for a team.

More than that, monitoring the walkrate is a good barometer for evaluating talent in the farm system. It is a major indication of whether or not a prospect is adapting to pitching. If a prospect is elevated to the next level and sees a significant decrease in the walks rate it is a telling sign that the player might not be able to assimilate. For instance, one-time heir to the third base throne Matt Moses had a solid year in 2005 at Ft Myers with a walk rate of 9.4% (28 walks in 304 plate appearances), midway through the season he received a promotion to Double-A New Britain where he struggled and saw his walk rate drop to 6.9% (14 walks in 204 plate appearances). The following season Moses started at New Britain and had a similar walk rate of 6.8% (30 walks in 516 plate appearances) leading to a very pedestrian obp of .295. The Twins, who have been reluctant to relinquish their faith in the former 1st round draft pick from 2003, let him begin 2007 with the Rochester Red Wings where his very poor walk rate of 2.2% (a ridiculous 4 walks in 181 plate appearances) got him bumped back down to New Britain for the remainder of the season. It is normal for a prospect to experience some neutralization when acclimating to higher levels of considering that the pitching talent should be getting more accurate as they ascend through the farm system.

Between 2006 and 2007, the Twins have had several of their prospects make significant inward adjustments in their approach at the batter's box:

5) Brock Peterson - 8.0% in 2006/10.1% in 2007 - increase of 2.1%

Drafted in the 49th round in 2002, 23-year old Peterson had the dubious privilege of not only being in Justin Morneau's shadow but also Garrett Jones. He had a solid season at Quad City (leading the team in hits) however the offensive production in his first season at Double-A New Britain has projected him past Jones in a lot of people's minds. In his second season at high-A Ft Myers in 2006 Peterson hit .291/.356/.497 with an ops of .853 in a league that averaging .701 and on a team that was averaging .696. He supplemented that with 21 home runs and an isolated power average (ISOP) of .206 to an organization desperate for power. This earned him the opportunity of Double-A. Peterson had a tough time in the early months of the season (a walk rate of 5.8%, 5.8% and 2.6% in April through June) but followed that with a strong July and August (21.9% and 18.3% respectively) and end with a .285/.381/.476 line (as well as 15 home runs). His .858 ops was 120 points high than the league average.

4) Brian Buscher - 7.4% in 2006/10.0% in 2007 - increase of 2.6%

Also a member of the previous Twins Top Five (contact edition), Brian Buscher has since been relegated to utility role now that the Twins have signed Mike Lamb. Gleeman has the full run down on Buscher's career which certainly has had its ebb and flow. His power has been described as Ron Coomer-esque, his defensive at third is serviceable (better than Lamb) and he would be a candidate for one half of a platoon but his peripheral numbers in the past season has sent the message that he might only be getting better. Last season when splitting three level, Buscher proved that he is better than a throw away prospect hitting Double-A and Triple-A pitching well. His stint with Minnesota was less reassuring to the front office that Buscher was the 2008 opening day third baseman (.244/.323/.329 in 93 plate appearances), but he was able to reduce his strikeouts and increase his walkrate which may indicate a turned corner. If nothing else, Buscher/Matt Macri will make a phenomenal platoon at Rochester in '08.

3) Juan Portes - 5.2% in 2006/8.1% in 2007 - increase of 2.9%

Another alum of the previous Twins Top Five (contact edition), Portes's consistency in 553 plate appearances for Fort Myers should earn him a promotion to New Britain in 2008. Almost all of his numbers improved in 2007 over his previous season in Beloit:

Extended Statistics
Year	Age		Team	PA	AB	ISOP	BB%	K%	BABIP	GB%	LD%	RC	RC/27	wOBA
2006	20	A	Beloit	288	268	.079	5.2%	19.1%	.284	46%	11%			.256
2007	21	A+	Fort Myers	553	495	.141	8.1%	16.1%	.307	41%	19%			.324

2) Luke Hughes - 6.3% in 2006/9.9% in 2007 - increase of 3.6%

This 23-year old non-drafted Australian native second baseman had the best season of his career last year but was a seemingly different player every month: one month it appeared he was swinging wildly for the fence the next he had zen like discipline. The results were a .283/.353/.438 season with 34 walks and 68 strikeouts in 362 plate appearances for New Britain. The Twins have Alexi Casilla playing second in Rochester or Minneapolis next season, more than likely Rochester, so Hughes will have to have an exceptional season to move further up in the organization or risk becoming a causality.

1) Brian Dinkelman - 4.7% in 2006/11.5% in 2007 - increase of 6.8%

Dinkelman will be on of the most watched position player the Twins have in their organization after his performance in 2007 not only because it was good but because the clock might be against him. After being named to the Midwest All-Star game, the 24-year-old Dinkelman hit .269/.367/.437 between low-A Beloit and high-A Ft Myers. He has a high walkrate and a low strikeout rate while hitting a good amount of line drives in play (16% of batted balls). The problem with Dinkelman (besides his name sounding like it belongs to a mathlete) is that he is considerably older than his competition of low-A and his numbers would be slightly padded due to facing more inexperienced pitching. That being said, Dinkelman has to be a strong bet to be given the opportunity to play in Double-A in 2008 if his starts the season well in Ft Myers.

*As a matter of personal experience, in high school Hannahan hit a home run off of me that cleared Hamline Avenue by four or five houses. Then again, I was the Brad Radke of Minnesota High School baseball and gave up quite a few jack-bombs my junior year. Brutal.

The Gate Value of Johan Santana

I have been seeing an awful lot of commentary on the on-going Johan Santana saga that his departure from the Twins would have ill effects on the attendance. To wit, Johan became the Minnesota Twins version of Must See TV. His ability to dispatch batters at a constant rate coupled with the way he could make even the most professional hitters look foolish with his change-up was, well, sick. Santana emerged in 2004 as someone whose starts were not to be missed, be it at the Dome or on FSN. His on-field contributions go unquestioned, meanwhile his gate value can be.

I did a quick on-the-fly analysis of Johan Santana's gate value as described in Vince Gennaro's book Diamond Dollars in which he was able to ascertain a monetary value of Pedro Martinez's home starts to the New York Mets overall revenue. Financially, it was determined that the Mets stood to benefit more from increased attendance at Shea Stadium in Martinez's roughly 12-18 starts than any other pitcher in their rotation, therefore Martinez's value to the Mets far exceeded the basic on-field contributions. His presence on the mound in Flushing, New York directly contributed to the Mets's bottom-line.

Obtaining information from Baseball-Reference for the attendance records I found that in 2007 Santana made 15 starts in front of Metrodome crowds that ranged from a high of 48,711 (the home opener, also a season high attended) to a low of 20,849 (a Tuesday night game against the Indians). In all, 492,200 people saw Santana starts over the course of the year averaging 32,813 per start. The rest of the rotation made 66 home starts that had a high of 42,373 (A 62-63 team that had Scott Baker starting a Tuesday night game against the Mariners) and a low of 13,977 (once again Scott Baker who was pitching a Wednesday afternoon game against the Indians long after the Twins were out of the race on September 5th). In those 66 home games 1,804,169 people attended those started by a Twins pitcher not named Johan Santana, an average of 27,335 per start.

The difference per game is equal to 5,478 more people on average attending a game started by Johan Santana versus any other Twins pitcher. According to Forbes.com's study of Major League franchises, the Twins average ticket price is $17. All things being equal, the Twins stood to gain on average $93,126 extra revenue on the days that Johan was on the rubber at the Dome. It could be argued that the Twins actually would have averaged more than that figure since fans would want to sit in sections with better views of the mound and plate area which are significantly more expensive. Over the course of a season, on average Santana has earned the Twins $1,396,890 above and beyond the other starters. Another way to look at it is that of the $37 million made on gate revenues, Johan directly contributed 3.5% of that.

Is a 3.5% loss at the gate enough to persuade the Twins front office to extend one of the most lucrative contracts in the majors? No. Having a two-time Cy Young winner on the roster certainly doesn't hurt the gate numbers at a place like the Metrodome - which during some games has the drawing power of a tractor pull - but for a franchise like the Twins poised to reap the benefits of having a brand-new outdoor stadium it doesn't make financial sense to sign Santana to an contract that will undoubtedly burden the payroll for years (no, the payroll will not be readjusted that significantly when the new stadium opens) when the new facility will draw the attendance for at least three seasons whether Johan Santana or Terry Felton is starting.