The 2007 Minnesota Twins Draft Picks: A Retrospective.

Not too long ago when I was in high school, Michael Lewis had yet to pen Moneyball, and Britney Spears was still a virgin, a student ballplayer from a rival school in my conference happened to be selected in the amateur drafted following my junior year. He was fast, tall and was spoken of by others as if he had all the tools. Frankly, he looked like a ballplayer but many of us were dubious of his skills simply because we were high school boys and generally skeptical of undue praise for other players. In the middle of the hype that brought various college coaches to the games, our pitcher claimed he was going to strike him out in four pitches each at-bat. Sure enough, in two consecutive at-bats, our pitcher set him up with inside fastballs only to get him lunging after two outside offspeed pitches. It was beautiful and this help garrison our notion that scouts were drafting on appearance rather than skill. After spending several seasons on the diamond with him, most of us ended up thinking that we were better than him, regardless of the amount of division one offers he would be receiving.

When he eventually got drafted in a very late round, there was a mini-mutiny from some of the juniors who began to think that our coach was not "repping" us enough to college coaches and scouts. To quell the small riot, in one of the rare nuggets of insight I remember my high school coach expounding on us shortly after the kid from the rival team would have been reporting to a rookie league or instructional camp, the coach gathered us around and hit us with some knowledge. He said "Major League draft picks are like sperm: only one in a billion is ever going to be productive."

Even though this statement did not relieve the idea that none of us would never be drafted (or play for a major college), I carry it with me whenever I review the five-billion rounds of draft picks. Even thought Michael Lewis and Billy Beane have since corrected me regarding the importance of the major league draft, I can't help but use the sperm metaphor (gross, but surprisingly accurate) when considering the most recent draft. After all, the minor league system is like a funnel where the strong advance and the weaker players are discarded back to the towns from whence they came. Some have troubles adapting to stronger pitching and wood bats. Some can't rely on two pitches alone that carried them through high school ball. The Twins Draft Class of '07 has finished jockeying for position in the rookie leagues. Here is a breakdown of picks in rounds one through ten following their first professional season:

r1.28) Ben Revere - 19-years-old - CF

After being questioned for selecting yet another powerless outfielder, the Twins were rewarded when 19-year-old Kentucky native Ben Revere demonstrated the qualities of a respectable draft pick in a half-season in the Gulf Coast Rookie League. In a league that averaged an ops of .691, Revere produced a .849 ops. The pre-draft analysis proved accurate when it came to his power and speed. His inability to hit the long ball (0 home runs) was apparent but he offset this with an isolated power average (isop) of .136 through 16 extra base hits (25.8% xbh%). Revere has the speed as indicated by his 21 stolen bases, however, getting caught stealing nine times ultimately cost team scoring opportunities, netting the team negative run production of -0.17. Overall he finished with a .325/.388/.461 line that earned him a spot on the GCL post-season all-star team. In comparison, Denard Span finished his first season in rookie ball Elizabethton with a paltry line of .271/.343/.319 and a ops that was below the league's average. Span, four years Revere's elder, followed up his first year with a season shared between the GCL and Midwest league and has played himself into a spot where he is no longer the centerfielder of the future. Revere also had a good split between righties and lefties. The left-handed Revere hit .299/.342/.438 in 144 at-bats against righties but handled lefties much better with a .404/.508/.532 line in 47 at-bats. Though 216 plate appearances are not enough to pass judgement, it would seem that Revere has more tools than previously thought and has a better chance of making an ascension to the big club.

r2.92) Daniel Rams - 19-years-old - C/1b

Reporting to GCL Twins in July, Daniel finished the season in typical fashion for a 19-year-old catcher. Displaying no significant power (no home runs, .093 isop), Rams had trouble adapting to the level of pitching that differed from what Gulliver Prep in Miami offered, striking out in 22 of his 107 plate appearances (20.6% k%) and managed to coax walks times (5.6% bb%) against GCL pitching. He finished the season with a middle infielder batting line of .258/.311/.361 but actually slugged better than the GCL average of .359. In 16 games behind the plate, Rams did not commit any errors. He carries great arm strength in his 222-lb frame. One scout told Baseball America that "whatever is the highest grade on your scale, that's what his arm is". Rams's large stature is could hinder his development as a catcher which is why the Twins are giving him reps at first base. Offensive improvement such as pitch recognition is a must for Rams if he expects to move beyond single-A ball.

r3.122) Angel Morales - 18-years-old - rf

Plucked from the Puerto Rico Baseball Academy, Morales was ranked number 198th on the pre-draft rankings by Baseball America when the Twins selected him 122nd overall. In his first season with the GCL Twins he lacked plate discipline as evident by his 30.3% strikeout rate (44 ks in 143 plate appearances). He finished the season with a respectable .256/.357/.405 and two home runs. Morales produced a .762 ops, 71 points higher than the league average which could indicate that he isn't over-matched but in need of more plate appearances. He also slugged 46 points higher than the league average as well. In an organization like the Twins that are hoping for outfield talent to develop, Morales will get all the slack in the world to see if he can develop as a hitter.

r4.152) Reggie Williams - 19-years-old - ss

Signed with the Twins on August 16th, 2007. Williams comes from an fairly athletic lineage which bodes well considering his father, Reggie Sr, was a football player who played for the Houston Oilers in addition to the Arizona Wranglers and LA Express of the USFL. Reggie Jr reported to the Instructional League in Ft. Myers in September.

r6.212) Michael McCardell - 23-years-old - rhp (sp)

Could be the steal-of-the-draft for the Twins at the 212 pick overall. A graduate of Kutztown University in Pennsylvania, whose motto is "Continue on...even if she says no" (no joke), McCardell is the first college graduate and pitcher that the Twins drafted which is probably not a coincidence. Currently John Sickel's number 10 Twins prospects, McCardell began 2007 blasting his way through the GCL (and much younger competition). In 67 batters faced, McCardell struck out 44 of them (40.2% k%) in addition to only walking 3 of them (2.9% bb%). Recognizing a need to challenge him, the Twins moved him up the farm system hierarchy having him start 8 games in Elizabethtown where he went 5-1 with a 2.00 era. He treated the offensive in the Appalachian League with the same disrespect, striking out 70 of the 174 batters faced (37.3% k%) while maintaining the same control as demonstrated by his 4.5% walk rate. In October he was deservedly named to Baseball America's Rookie All-Star team. While currently being developed to be a starter, I wouldn't might seeing McCardell be transitioned into the bullpen where he could replace Eduardo Morlan as the organization's future closer.

r7.242) Dan Berlind - 20-years-old - rhp (sp)

This 6'7", 210-lb Los Angeles native reported to the GCL Twins and finished with 56 innings, a 6-1 record and a 2.02 era. Like McCardell selected a round before him, Berlind is slightly older than the competition. But like McCardell before him too, Berlind dispatched the hitters like someone older should. Of 222 batters faced Berlind pined 52 of them (23.4% k%). He may have some control issue to massage (9.0% bb%) but it is more nitpicking on my part. Judging from this YouTube clip of him in junior college, you can see that he uses his size well: he stays tall and does not rush his delivery. His body does fly-open slightly on the pitches low and away. Often pitchers approaching his height have the tendency to rely only on the large arm-whip action. This to me says that he was already a well-groomed pitcher when the Twins spend their 242nd pick on him. A season in Elizabethton will undoubtedly help finesse the remaining raw thrower out of him and hopefully develop into yet another high-caliber Twins pitching prospect.

r8.272) Danny Lehmann - 22-years-old - c

Rice University's Danny Lehmann was the Twins's 272nd pick and the second catcher selected. While not having has many acclimates defensively as Rams, Lehmann put together a so-so year with Elizabethton. Finishing with a batting line of .221/.333/.364, Lehmann slugged 3 homers and bagged 2 doubles leading to a .143 isop. He made decent contact, striking out in only 11.1% of his plate appearances he also had a keen batting eye walking in 10.0% as well. The 5'11" catcher seems to beat the ball into the grass as evident by groundballs in 52.0% of his batted balls and managed to hit line drives in only 9% which resulted in a poor .219 babip. If his contact improves to the point where he is getting more air under the ball, Lehmann could be productive at the plate in the future.

r9.302) Steven Hirschfeld - 22-years-old -rhp (sp)

Yet another large statute pitcher (6'5", 220-lb), Hirschfeld, in his inaugural professional season, finished with Elizabethton 1-2 record with an era slightly higher (4.26) than the 4.17 Appalachian League average in 25.1 innings pitched. While this doesn't look particularly reaffirming, Hirschfeld essentially had one bad month. In June, he pitched 3.0 innings of shut-out ball. July proved more tumultuous where his 17.1 innings resulted in a 6.23 era. His babip was an inflated .308 but he did strikeout 18.3% of his 71 batters faced and walked only 4.3%. It would appear that he was working up in the zone considering his groundball rate was 33%. In his 5.0 innings of work in August, Hirschfeld did not allow a run in 19 batters faced. When they did make contact against him in August 82% of them were groundballs. While his bookend months were solid, the 8.o innings of shut-out ball just isn't enough to pass judgement on a pitcher. If his strikeout rate/walk rate remains consistent next season, Hirschfeld could prove to be a good draft pick in round 9.

r10.332) Blair Erickson - 23-years-old - rhp (rp)

The UC Irvine closer who holds the NCAA record for saves with 53 entered Elizabethton with the same late-innings dominance that he had while with the Anteaters. In 17.2 innings, Erickson struck out 17 (22.5% k%) and surrendered only 14 hits with his very good 68% groundball rate. Brewerfan.net reports that Erickson's fastball has lost some velocity (now in the 87-91 range) prior to the 2007 season and his slider has lost its bite. Dispite all the initial reports, his first-year results were good. His performance might attributed to being two years older than league average but he still proved to be overpowering. In the wake of the Eduardo Morlan trade and losing Tim Lehay in the Rule 5 draft, Erickson has the opportunity to aggressively advance within the Twins farm system as a closer.

Analysis of picks 11 through 20 forthcoming later this week...

Most Improved Prospects (Increased Plate Awareness Edition)

The Oakland Athletics have a keen eye for finding prospects that have the ability to get on base through walks whether it be the highly touted prospects like Carlos Pena and Daric Barton (who had a 13.0% walk rate in Triple-A) to Jack Hannahan* who was an solid mid-season acquisition that once again was plucked from another organization that did not value the walk. Jack Cust had an obscene walk rate of 24.4% in 2006 and was still not given the chance at the major league level until Oakland acquired him. Even newly pilfered prospects from the Diamondbacks organization in the Dan Haren trade have a history of patience. Billy Beane realized early on that one of the hardest things to teach is plate discipline, so he has stocked his farm system with batters that have a good idea of the strike zone. Patience has never been a strong virtue practiced by the Twins nor has it been a trait targeted when acquiring prospective talent. It stands to reason that having a roster of players that a) do not swing at bad pitches, b) makes the pitcher throw more pitches then necessary and c) gets on base in the process is a good philosophical building block for a team.

More than that, monitoring the walkrate is a good barometer for evaluating talent in the farm system. It is a major indication of whether or not a prospect is adapting to pitching. If a prospect is elevated to the next level and sees a significant decrease in the walks rate it is a telling sign that the player might not be able to assimilate. For instance, one-time heir to the third base throne Matt Moses had a solid year in 2005 at Ft Myers with a walk rate of 9.4% (28 walks in 304 plate appearances), midway through the season he received a promotion to Double-A New Britain where he struggled and saw his walk rate drop to 6.9% (14 walks in 204 plate appearances). The following season Moses started at New Britain and had a similar walk rate of 6.8% (30 walks in 516 plate appearances) leading to a very pedestrian obp of .295. The Twins, who have been reluctant to relinquish their faith in the former 1st round draft pick from 2003, let him begin 2007 with the Rochester Red Wings where his very poor walk rate of 2.2% (a ridiculous 4 walks in 181 plate appearances) got him bumped back down to New Britain for the remainder of the season. It is normal for a prospect to experience some neutralization when acclimating to higher levels of considering that the pitching talent should be getting more accurate as they ascend through the farm system.

Between 2006 and 2007, the Twins have had several of their prospects make significant inward adjustments in their approach at the batter's box:

5) Brock Peterson - 8.0% in 2006/10.1% in 2007 - increase of 2.1%

Drafted in the 49th round in 2002, 23-year old Peterson had the dubious privilege of not only being in Justin Morneau's shadow but also Garrett Jones. He had a solid season at Quad City (leading the team in hits) however the offensive production in his first season at Double-A New Britain has projected him past Jones in a lot of people's minds. In his second season at high-A Ft Myers in 2006 Peterson hit .291/.356/.497 with an ops of .853 in a league that averaging .701 and on a team that was averaging .696. He supplemented that with 21 home runs and an isolated power average (ISOP) of .206 to an organization desperate for power. This earned him the opportunity of Double-A. Peterson had a tough time in the early months of the season (a walk rate of 5.8%, 5.8% and 2.6% in April through June) but followed that with a strong July and August (21.9% and 18.3% respectively) and end with a .285/.381/.476 line (as well as 15 home runs). His .858 ops was 120 points high than the league average.

4) Brian Buscher - 7.4% in 2006/10.0% in 2007 - increase of 2.6%

Also a member of the previous Twins Top Five (contact edition), Brian Buscher has since been relegated to utility role now that the Twins have signed Mike Lamb. Gleeman has the full run down on Buscher's career which certainly has had its ebb and flow. His power has been described as Ron Coomer-esque, his defensive at third is serviceable (better than Lamb) and he would be a candidate for one half of a platoon but his peripheral numbers in the past season has sent the message that he might only be getting better. Last season when splitting three level, Buscher proved that he is better than a throw away prospect hitting Double-A and Triple-A pitching well. His stint with Minnesota was less reassuring to the front office that Buscher was the 2008 opening day third baseman (.244/.323/.329 in 93 plate appearances), but he was able to reduce his strikeouts and increase his walkrate which may indicate a turned corner. If nothing else, Buscher/Matt Macri will make a phenomenal platoon at Rochester in '08.

3) Juan Portes - 5.2% in 2006/8.1% in 2007 - increase of 2.9%

Another alum of the previous Twins Top Five (contact edition), Portes's consistency in 553 plate appearances for Fort Myers should earn him a promotion to New Britain in 2008. Almost all of his numbers improved in 2007 over his previous season in Beloit:

Extended Statistics
Year	Age		Team	PA	AB	ISOP	BB%	K%	BABIP	GB%	LD%	RC	RC/27	wOBA
2006	20	A	Beloit	288	268	.079	5.2%	19.1%	.284	46%	11%			.256
2007	21	A+	Fort Myers	553	495	.141	8.1%	16.1%	.307	41%	19%			.324

2) Luke Hughes - 6.3% in 2006/9.9% in 2007 - increase of 3.6%

This 23-year old non-drafted Australian native second baseman had the best season of his career last year but was a seemingly different player every month: one month it appeared he was swinging wildly for the fence the next he had zen like discipline. The results were a .283/.353/.438 season with 34 walks and 68 strikeouts in 362 plate appearances for New Britain. The Twins have Alexi Casilla playing second in Rochester or Minneapolis next season, more than likely Rochester, so Hughes will have to have an exceptional season to move further up in the organization or risk becoming a causality.

1) Brian Dinkelman - 4.7% in 2006/11.5% in 2007 - increase of 6.8%

Dinkelman will be on of the most watched position player the Twins have in their organization after his performance in 2007 not only because it was good but because the clock might be against him. After being named to the Midwest All-Star game, the 24-year-old Dinkelman hit .269/.367/.437 between low-A Beloit and high-A Ft Myers. He has a high walkrate and a low strikeout rate while hitting a good amount of line drives in play (16% of batted balls). The problem with Dinkelman (besides his name sounding like it belongs to a mathlete) is that he is considerably older than his competition of low-A and his numbers would be slightly padded due to facing more inexperienced pitching. That being said, Dinkelman has to be a strong bet to be given the opportunity to play in Double-A in 2008 if his starts the season well in Ft Myers.

*As a matter of personal experience, in high school Hannahan hit a home run off of me that cleared Hamline Avenue by four or five houses. Then again, I was the Brad Radke of Minnesota High School baseball and gave up quite a few jack-bombs my junior year. Brutal.

The Gate Value of Johan Santana

I have been seeing an awful lot of commentary on the on-going Johan Santana saga that his departure from the Twins would have ill effects on the attendance. To wit, Johan became the Minnesota Twins version of Must See TV. His ability to dispatch batters at a constant rate coupled with the way he could make even the most professional hitters look foolish with his change-up was, well, sick. Santana emerged in 2004 as someone whose starts were not to be missed, be it at the Dome or on FSN. His on-field contributions go unquestioned, meanwhile his gate value can be.

I did a quick on-the-fly analysis of Johan Santana's gate value as described in Vince Gennaro's book Diamond Dollars in which he was able to ascertain a monetary value of Pedro Martinez's home starts to the New York Mets overall revenue. Financially, it was determined that the Mets stood to benefit more from increased attendance at Shea Stadium in Martinez's roughly 12-18 starts than any other pitcher in their rotation, therefore Martinez's value to the Mets far exceeded the basic on-field contributions. His presence on the mound in Flushing, New York directly contributed to the Mets's bottom-line.

Obtaining information from Baseball-Reference for the attendance records I found that in 2007 Santana made 15 starts in front of Metrodome crowds that ranged from a high of 48,711 (the home opener, also a season high attended) to a low of 20,849 (a Tuesday night game against the Indians). In all, 492,200 people saw Santana starts over the course of the year averaging 32,813 per start. The rest of the rotation made 66 home starts that had a high of 42,373 (A 62-63 team that had Scott Baker starting a Tuesday night game against the Mariners) and a low of 13,977 (once again Scott Baker who was pitching a Wednesday afternoon game against the Indians long after the Twins were out of the race on September 5th). In those 66 home games 1,804,169 people attended those started by a Twins pitcher not named Johan Santana, an average of 27,335 per start.

The difference per game is equal to 5,478 more people on average attending a game started by Johan Santana versus any other Twins pitcher. According to Forbes.com's study of Major League franchises, the Twins average ticket price is $17. All things being equal, the Twins stood to gain on average $93,126 extra revenue on the days that Johan was on the rubber at the Dome. It could be argued that the Twins actually would have averaged more than that figure since fans would want to sit in sections with better views of the mound and plate area which are significantly more expensive. Over the course of a season, on average Santana has earned the Twins $1,396,890 above and beyond the other starters. Another way to look at it is that of the $37 million made on gate revenues, Johan directly contributed 3.5% of that.

Is a 3.5% loss at the gate enough to persuade the Twins front office to extend one of the most lucrative contracts in the majors? No. Having a two-time Cy Young winner on the roster certainly doesn't hurt the gate numbers at a place like the Metrodome - which during some games has the drawing power of a tractor pull - but for a franchise like the Twins poised to reap the benefits of having a brand-new outdoor stadium it doesn't make financial sense to sign Santana to an contract that will undoubtedly burden the payroll for years (no, the payroll will not be readjusted that significantly when the new stadium opens) when the new facility will draw the attendance for at least three seasons whether Johan Santana or Terry Felton is starting.

American League Central Update (Mitchell Report Edition)

Chicago White Sox

While four ex-Sox players were listed in the Mitchell Report, Jim Parque had the longest tenure with the South Siders. Former Mets trainer Kirk Randomski indicated that Parque -- while at the time in question was with the Devil Rays -- wrote him two checks totally $4,800 for human growth hormone. In the Chicago Sun-Times, Parque vehemently denies (which as you will see will be a trend for these ballplayers) any allegations that he took HGH in any form. Much like Bonds's flaxseed oil defense, Parque says that the money was for Randomski to acquire ‘‘a bunch of supplements, some creatine, vitamins, some stuff to increase my red-blood-cell count and some herbs from South America that were supposed to help with my injuries.’’

Prior to the alleged date of receiving the PEDs (performance enhancing drugs) Parque was 31-34 with both the White Sox and Devil Rays following October 18th, 2003 dated check he has no wins or appearances in a major league game (a handful in Triple-A Tacoma in 2007 though).

‘‘Either someone isn’t telling the truth, or steroids really don’t work because I was throwing 80, 81 mph before the report said I took them, and I was throwing 80, 81 mph after I allegedly took them,’’ Parque told the press. It may be arguing semantics with Parque, but he was actually accused of taking HGH and not steroids. At times mistaken for one in the same, HGH is proven to help recovery rather than improve strength which is was anabolic steroids do. Therefore an increase in miles-per-hour might not be an good variable when looking for someone on growth hormones. What seems to sell this to me is that Parque in 2003 was coming off his third straight season of being injured, possibly desperate to maintain a steady paycheck, Parque probably turned to find something that might speed his recovery.

Cleveland Indians

Paul Byrd's outing might be the freshest in people's minds considering the attention it garnered when the news was released shortly after his game 6 start against the Red Sox and caused chaos in the Indians clubhouse before being beaten by the Sox in game 7. Cleveland Plain-Dealer's Paul Hoynes has the complete list of the Mistake by the Lake's ties to the scandal. Juan Gonzales might have best story: While at a Toronto airport on October 4th, 2001, a duffel bag containing syringes and steroids was discovered by authorities. Gonzales claimed it was his trainers. His trainer claims it was Juan's.

Even though Gonzales most likely began juicing while with Texas (a hotbed of suspected juicers including Palmerio and Rodriguez), the numbers he produced in Cleveland at 31-years-old were outstanding. Too outstanding. In 140 games, Gonzo hit 35 home runs and batted .325/.370/.590. In a time when the league was slugging .429, Gonzales was slugging .161 higher than the American League average. Gonzales was an All-Star and Silver Slugger. The Indians cakewalked their way to a 91-71 record for the Central title. Also on that squad connected to the Mitchell Report was back-up catcher Tim Laker and Steve Woodard. That same year the 33-year-old second baseman Roberto Alomar hit 20 home runs with a line of .336/.415/.541 (he slugged like a designated hitter). While not named in the report, Alomar had contact with Rafael Palmerio for three consecutive seasons in Baltimore. The temptation was there.

Detroit Tigers

Gary Sheffield is one of the high profile names from the report, but nothing new is revealed. "Game of Shadows" had far greater accounts as to when, where and why Sheffield was purchasing what he claimed was "vitamin". In 2003, the year he was connected to Victor Conte and BALCO, Sheffield slugged .604 in comparison to the league average of .433. His offensive production helped add 5.3 wins to the 101-win Atlanta Braves. While not currently connect to steroids, he has since slipped into being injury-prone.

From the Mitchell Report: "At the end of the 2004 season, a clubhouse employee was cleaning out the Detroit Tigers locker room when he found a black toiletry kit that was locked. He and another Tigers employee opened the bag and found unused syringes and vials that they determined were anabolic steroids. They did not report the incident. The employee said that he could not remember who the bag belonged to." This is a difficult task for the clubhouse employee because three players on this team were listed in the report (Rondell White, Nook Logan and Fernando Vina ) while one seems to have all the symptoms (Ivan Rodriguez). On a terrible 79-win team, these four players contributed 38 win shares*. (I am tempted to use an asterisks next to the win shares of all steriod/hgh players from here on out).

Kansas City Royals

The Royals right now are keeping up with the major league pace of placing a large investment into a player that has links to PEDs. The Astros are up there as well by trading 5 prospects for the accused Miguel Tejada. After signing a lucrative contract with Jose Guillen to a 3-year $36 million dollar deal, the Royals found out immediately they had damaged goods (even though it was also common knowledge prior to his signing). These steroid/hgh players should be running the risk of having their contracts revoked due to false advertisement. Jason Giambi toed that line two seasons ago when it was reported that he was an admitted steroid user. Speculation had the Yankees nullifying his contract due to the reports, ultimately they decided against it. Prior to 2003, Guillen was an average outfielder being shipped around the league. In 2003, Guillen set a career high for slugging at .569, significantly higher than his previous best of .430 while with the Devil Rays, and since then his performance has been relatively consistent (minus an injury shortened season in 2006 with the Nationals).

Did the Royals sign him expecting him to perform at that level? Obviously so or they would not have sank $12 million a year into him. If I am a general manager, I would be sure to insert language that speaks directly to the past use of PEDs in the contract and if it comes to fruition that the player in question is indeed guilty of either hgh or steroids, the amount of pay per season is automatically adjusted in the favor of management. Needless to say, there are some organizations that would take advantage of this safety net however it would protect the small-to-mid market teams that overextend themselves by signing a player like Guillen who may not replicate his production now that he is not juicing.

Mitchell-Boston Ties

Of the AL Central for a moment, I am not sure I actually believe this. The Boston Red Sox claim that they had no prior knowledge of Brendan Donnelly involvement with PED when they cut him a few hours before the release of the Mitchell Report. According to Red Sox spokesperson John Blake the organization "didn't get anything until Mitchell released it at 2 o'clock. So there's no way that anybody had any inkling that Donnelly would be mentioned in that report." The validity of the report has been broched upon before. In this specific case it involves Sen. George Mitchell, who also is a director of the Boston Red Sox, and a last minute decision by Theo Epstein to non-tender Donnelly. While Donnelly had been injured since June 10th and Boston has been relatively good at shedding dead weight, Mitchell, who has an involvement with a team and a report with club officials, might obliged to slip some information that would make the decision that much easier to make. Here's what we do know: New Englanders cheat. Maybe it is that Southie mentality, but since Video Tape Gate, I wouldn't be surprised if that tidbit about Paul Byrd wasn't a well-timed leak too.

Most Improved Prospects (Increased Contact Edition)

An organization like the Twins that has limited major-league ready prospects needs to thoroughly scrutinize and monitor the progress of its developing talent considering the increased cost of acquiring a free agent to replace one that isn't homegrown. While I am confident that Jim Rantz and Mike Radcliff have a good handle on the farm system, there are some concerns that talent isn't being expedited as well as it should. For instance, there are no clear cut internal replacements of Torii Hunter since Denard Span has not proven himself of high caliber. Likewise many believe that Matt Tolbert would be a better candidate for second than Nick Punto or Alexi Casilla. Looking at some of the critical peripheral numbers (K%, BB%, XBH%, ISOP, OBP) that changed from 2006 to 2007 will help highlight who these individuals are.

What a high contract rate essentially means is that the prospect is adapting to the pitching at an acceptable pace. If a strikeout rate drops significantly this a sign that a player is ready to be moved to the next level or conversely it is a symptom that the player will need more time to develop (or perhaps may never be moving hire). The low strikeout rate (strikeouts/plate appearances) indicates that a player is maximizing his plate appearances by putting the ball into play and placing the burden on the defense (we will dissect the quality of balls-in-play at a later date). These analytics are solid performance evaluations for prospects.

The top five improved contact:

5) Juan Portes -- infielder/outfielder -- Decrease of 3% between 2006 and 2007.

Drafted in the 15th round of the 2004 draft by the Twins out of a Massachusetts high school, Portes began his career in the Twins Gulf Coast League. In 44 games, Portes hit .327/.380/.530. He began 2005 with Elizabethton where his numbers in 64 games were the beginning of an offensive reduction after posting a .286/.349/.494 batting line. Moved to low-A Beloit in the Midwest League, Portes struggled again. In 288 plate appearances with Beloit he struck out 55 times (a 19.1% strikeout rate). Even though his numbers with Beloit were less than ideal (.231/.278/.310), the 20-year-old Portes was advanced to High-A Ft. Myers. Quickly the promising career that Portes started with was heading in the opposite direction. However, his numbers rebounded at Ft. Myers (.269/.336/.410) where he had a career-high 553 plate appearances and 89 strikeouts (a 16.1% strikeout rate) once again reaffirming the belief that Portes could be a major league player eventually.

4) Brian Buscher -- 3rd base -- Decrease of 3.6%.

In 524 plate appearances with Double-A Connecticut in 2006, Buscher struck out 75 times (a strikeout rate of 14.3%). Picked up by the Twins in the 2007 Rule 5 Minor League draft, Buscher split time between Double-A New Britain, Triple-A Rochester and finally the Twins. In that duration, Buscher had 529 plate appearances and struck out only 57 times (a 10.7% strikeout rate). This improvement is further highlighted by his decrease from 17.1% strikeout rate in his 484 plate appearances in 2005. What can be determined from this is that Buscher has increased his ability to put the ball in play -- a significant prerequisite to getting a base hit -- following an aborted winter league performance, a strong spring could place Buscher at the top of the short third base candidate list.

3) Drew Butera -- catcher -- Decrease of 5.6%.

Like Buscher, Butera spent 2006 in a different organization (the Mets) but has intimate knowledge of the Twins franchise considering his paternal connections (his dad is Sal Butera ). Butera was assigned to Single-A Hagerstown where he had 348 plate appearances, of those he struck out 69 times (a strikeout rate of 19.8%). Beginning in 2007, the Mets placed Butera in High-A St. Lucie where midseason he was packaged with Dustin Martin for Luis Castillo. Butera reported to New Britain and was promoted to Rochester. In that time span, Butura was given 387 plate appearances and reduced his strikeouts to 55 times (a rate of 14.2%). While it isn't out of the realm of possibility that Butera may end up being a back-up catcher candidate for the Twins in 2010, it is more than likely the 24-year-old Butera will be blocked by Mauer and Redman and will be repackaged or released.

2) Matt Allegra -- right field -- Decrease of 6.6%

Matt Allegra, like Butera and Buscher before him, was drafted by a different team. Allegra was drafted by the Oakland Athletics out of Manatee Junior College in Florida in the 16th round. In his tenure with the A's, Allegra sampled several different levels before they let him leave as a minor league free agent following his 2006 season split between High-A Stockton and Double-A Midland. Allegra struck out 128 times in 436 plate appearances (a 29.3% strikeout rate). Prior to the 2007 season, the Twins signed Allegra and placed him in New Britain. Allegra received 414 plate appearances and managed to cut down his strikeouts to 94 (a 22.7% strikeout rate), but is still obviously a free-swinger. While this is a significant improvement and could imply that Allegra has indeed been able increase his contact by a small adjustment or being able to recognize pitches better, there is also the possibility of regression. The mitigating factor is that the Twins do not have many outfield prospects (two lighter following the Rule 5 draft) so Allegra will be in Rochester to open the 2008 season. We should continue to monitor his progress.

1) Jose Morales -- catcher -- Decrease of 9.3%

Discovered in Puerto Rico, Morales was drafted as a shortstop in the 3rd round by the Twins in 2001 (77th overall). Morales played second base until 2003 where he was moved behind the plate while with the Quad City River Bandits. By 2004, Morales was a full-time catcher. (The problem though was that 76 picks earlier in 2001 the Twins had drafted a high school catcher from St Paul named Joe Mauer). Offensively, Morales was decent. That same season Morales hit .286/.339/.386 in the Florida State League and was named to the all-star team. After missing significant time in 2005, Morales came back with New Britain in 2006 and hit a paltry .215/.280/.319 in 251 at-bats. In 282 plate appearances, Morales struck out 56 times (a 19.9% strikeout rate). After a promotion in 2007 to Rochester, Morales had a career year where in 108 games he hit .311/.366/.399 and was called up to the Twins on September 8th, 2007. He had one of the best debuts for a Twins player in quite some time. In three at-bats, Morales had three hits (including a double and a run scored). In the top of the 5th, Morales was hustling to second on a Jason Tyner bunt and was injured on the play. Lifted from the game, his season was officially over. In 418 plate appearances, Morales had struck out 44 times (a greatly reduced 10.6%). Morales, talented but blocked by the Baby Jesus and the Naked Walker, could still find employment on the roster in 2008 as the elusive third catcher that Gardenhire had been vocal about.