The Gate Value of Johan Santana

I have been seeing an awful lot of commentary on the on-going Johan Santana saga that his departure from the Twins would have ill effects on the attendance. To wit, Johan became the Minnesota Twins version of Must See TV. His ability to dispatch batters at a constant rate coupled with the way he could make even the most professional hitters look foolish with his change-up was, well, sick. Santana emerged in 2004 as someone whose starts were not to be missed, be it at the Dome or on FSN. His on-field contributions go unquestioned, meanwhile his gate value can be.

I did a quick on-the-fly analysis of Johan Santana's gate value as described in Vince Gennaro's book Diamond Dollars in which he was able to ascertain a monetary value of Pedro Martinez's home starts to the New York Mets overall revenue. Financially, it was determined that the Mets stood to benefit more from increased attendance at Shea Stadium in Martinez's roughly 12-18 starts than any other pitcher in their rotation, therefore Martinez's value to the Mets far exceeded the basic on-field contributions. His presence on the mound in Flushing, New York directly contributed to the Mets's bottom-line.

Obtaining information from Baseball-Reference for the attendance records I found that in 2007 Santana made 15 starts in front of Metrodome crowds that ranged from a high of 48,711 (the home opener, also a season high attended) to a low of 20,849 (a Tuesday night game against the Indians). In all, 492,200 people saw Santana starts over the course of the year averaging 32,813 per start. The rest of the rotation made 66 home starts that had a high of 42,373 (A 62-63 team that had Scott Baker starting a Tuesday night game against the Mariners) and a low of 13,977 (once again Scott Baker who was pitching a Wednesday afternoon game against the Indians long after the Twins were out of the race on September 5th). In those 66 home games 1,804,169 people attended those started by a Twins pitcher not named Johan Santana, an average of 27,335 per start.

The difference per game is equal to 5,478 more people on average attending a game started by Johan Santana versus any other Twins pitcher. According to Forbes.com's study of Major League franchises, the Twins average ticket price is $17. All things being equal, the Twins stood to gain on average $93,126 extra revenue on the days that Johan was on the rubber at the Dome. It could be argued that the Twins actually would have averaged more than that figure since fans would want to sit in sections with better views of the mound and plate area which are significantly more expensive. Over the course of a season, on average Santana has earned the Twins $1,396,890 above and beyond the other starters. Another way to look at it is that of the $37 million made on gate revenues, Johan directly contributed 3.5% of that.

Is a 3.5% loss at the gate enough to persuade the Twins front office to extend one of the most lucrative contracts in the majors? No. Having a two-time Cy Young winner on the roster certainly doesn't hurt the gate numbers at a place like the Metrodome - which during some games has the drawing power of a tractor pull - but for a franchise like the Twins poised to reap the benefits of having a brand-new outdoor stadium it doesn't make financial sense to sign Santana to an contract that will undoubtedly burden the payroll for years (no, the payroll will not be readjusted that significantly when the new stadium opens) when the new facility will draw the attendance for at least three seasons whether Johan Santana or Terry Felton is starting.

American League Central Update (Mitchell Report Edition)

Chicago White Sox

While four ex-Sox players were listed in the Mitchell Report, Jim Parque had the longest tenure with the South Siders. Former Mets trainer Kirk Randomski indicated that Parque -- while at the time in question was with the Devil Rays -- wrote him two checks totally $4,800 for human growth hormone. In the Chicago Sun-Times, Parque vehemently denies (which as you will see will be a trend for these ballplayers) any allegations that he took HGH in any form. Much like Bonds's flaxseed oil defense, Parque says that the money was for Randomski to acquire ‘‘a bunch of supplements, some creatine, vitamins, some stuff to increase my red-blood-cell count and some herbs from South America that were supposed to help with my injuries.’’

Prior to the alleged date of receiving the PEDs (performance enhancing drugs) Parque was 31-34 with both the White Sox and Devil Rays following October 18th, 2003 dated check he has no wins or appearances in a major league game (a handful in Triple-A Tacoma in 2007 though).

‘‘Either someone isn’t telling the truth, or steroids really don’t work because I was throwing 80, 81 mph before the report said I took them, and I was throwing 80, 81 mph after I allegedly took them,’’ Parque told the press. It may be arguing semantics with Parque, but he was actually accused of taking HGH and not steroids. At times mistaken for one in the same, HGH is proven to help recovery rather than improve strength which is was anabolic steroids do. Therefore an increase in miles-per-hour might not be an good variable when looking for someone on growth hormones. What seems to sell this to me is that Parque in 2003 was coming off his third straight season of being injured, possibly desperate to maintain a steady paycheck, Parque probably turned to find something that might speed his recovery.

Cleveland Indians

Paul Byrd's outing might be the freshest in people's minds considering the attention it garnered when the news was released shortly after his game 6 start against the Red Sox and caused chaos in the Indians clubhouse before being beaten by the Sox in game 7. Cleveland Plain-Dealer's Paul Hoynes has the complete list of the Mistake by the Lake's ties to the scandal. Juan Gonzales might have best story: While at a Toronto airport on October 4th, 2001, a duffel bag containing syringes and steroids was discovered by authorities. Gonzales claimed it was his trainers. His trainer claims it was Juan's.

Even though Gonzales most likely began juicing while with Texas (a hotbed of suspected juicers including Palmerio and Rodriguez), the numbers he produced in Cleveland at 31-years-old were outstanding. Too outstanding. In 140 games, Gonzo hit 35 home runs and batted .325/.370/.590. In a time when the league was slugging .429, Gonzales was slugging .161 higher than the American League average. Gonzales was an All-Star and Silver Slugger. The Indians cakewalked their way to a 91-71 record for the Central title. Also on that squad connected to the Mitchell Report was back-up catcher Tim Laker and Steve Woodard. That same year the 33-year-old second baseman Roberto Alomar hit 20 home runs with a line of .336/.415/.541 (he slugged like a designated hitter). While not named in the report, Alomar had contact with Rafael Palmerio for three consecutive seasons in Baltimore. The temptation was there.

Detroit Tigers

Gary Sheffield is one of the high profile names from the report, but nothing new is revealed. "Game of Shadows" had far greater accounts as to when, where and why Sheffield was purchasing what he claimed was "vitamin". In 2003, the year he was connected to Victor Conte and BALCO, Sheffield slugged .604 in comparison to the league average of .433. His offensive production helped add 5.3 wins to the 101-win Atlanta Braves. While not currently connect to steroids, he has since slipped into being injury-prone.

From the Mitchell Report: "At the end of the 2004 season, a clubhouse employee was cleaning out the Detroit Tigers locker room when he found a black toiletry kit that was locked. He and another Tigers employee opened the bag and found unused syringes and vials that they determined were anabolic steroids. They did not report the incident. The employee said that he could not remember who the bag belonged to." This is a difficult task for the clubhouse employee because three players on this team were listed in the report (Rondell White, Nook Logan and Fernando Vina ) while one seems to have all the symptoms (Ivan Rodriguez). On a terrible 79-win team, these four players contributed 38 win shares*. (I am tempted to use an asterisks next to the win shares of all steriod/hgh players from here on out).

Kansas City Royals

The Royals right now are keeping up with the major league pace of placing a large investment into a player that has links to PEDs. The Astros are up there as well by trading 5 prospects for the accused Miguel Tejada. After signing a lucrative contract with Jose Guillen to a 3-year $36 million dollar deal, the Royals found out immediately they had damaged goods (even though it was also common knowledge prior to his signing). These steroid/hgh players should be running the risk of having their contracts revoked due to false advertisement. Jason Giambi toed that line two seasons ago when it was reported that he was an admitted steroid user. Speculation had the Yankees nullifying his contract due to the reports, ultimately they decided against it. Prior to 2003, Guillen was an average outfielder being shipped around the league. In 2003, Guillen set a career high for slugging at .569, significantly higher than his previous best of .430 while with the Devil Rays, and since then his performance has been relatively consistent (minus an injury shortened season in 2006 with the Nationals).

Did the Royals sign him expecting him to perform at that level? Obviously so or they would not have sank $12 million a year into him. If I am a general manager, I would be sure to insert language that speaks directly to the past use of PEDs in the contract and if it comes to fruition that the player in question is indeed guilty of either hgh or steroids, the amount of pay per season is automatically adjusted in the favor of management. Needless to say, there are some organizations that would take advantage of this safety net however it would protect the small-to-mid market teams that overextend themselves by signing a player like Guillen who may not replicate his production now that he is not juicing.

Mitchell-Boston Ties

Of the AL Central for a moment, I am not sure I actually believe this. The Boston Red Sox claim that they had no prior knowledge of Brendan Donnelly involvement with PED when they cut him a few hours before the release of the Mitchell Report. According to Red Sox spokesperson John Blake the organization "didn't get anything until Mitchell released it at 2 o'clock. So there's no way that anybody had any inkling that Donnelly would be mentioned in that report." The validity of the report has been broched upon before. In this specific case it involves Sen. George Mitchell, who also is a director of the Boston Red Sox, and a last minute decision by Theo Epstein to non-tender Donnelly. While Donnelly had been injured since June 10th and Boston has been relatively good at shedding dead weight, Mitchell, who has an involvement with a team and a report with club officials, might obliged to slip some information that would make the decision that much easier to make. Here's what we do know: New Englanders cheat. Maybe it is that Southie mentality, but since Video Tape Gate, I wouldn't be surprised if that tidbit about Paul Byrd wasn't a well-timed leak too.

Most Improved Prospects (Increased Contact Edition)

An organization like the Twins that has limited major-league ready prospects needs to thoroughly scrutinize and monitor the progress of its developing talent considering the increased cost of acquiring a free agent to replace one that isn't homegrown. While I am confident that Jim Rantz and Mike Radcliff have a good handle on the farm system, there are some concerns that talent isn't being expedited as well as it should. For instance, there are no clear cut internal replacements of Torii Hunter since Denard Span has not proven himself of high caliber. Likewise many believe that Matt Tolbert would be a better candidate for second than Nick Punto or Alexi Casilla. Looking at some of the critical peripheral numbers (K%, BB%, XBH%, ISOP, OBP) that changed from 2006 to 2007 will help highlight who these individuals are.

What a high contract rate essentially means is that the prospect is adapting to the pitching at an acceptable pace. If a strikeout rate drops significantly this a sign that a player is ready to be moved to the next level or conversely it is a symptom that the player will need more time to develop (or perhaps may never be moving hire). The low strikeout rate (strikeouts/plate appearances) indicates that a player is maximizing his plate appearances by putting the ball into play and placing the burden on the defense (we will dissect the quality of balls-in-play at a later date). These analytics are solid performance evaluations for prospects.

The top five improved contact:

5) Juan Portes -- infielder/outfielder -- Decrease of 3% between 2006 and 2007.

Drafted in the 15th round of the 2004 draft by the Twins out of a Massachusetts high school, Portes began his career in the Twins Gulf Coast League. In 44 games, Portes hit .327/.380/.530. He began 2005 with Elizabethton where his numbers in 64 games were the beginning of an offensive reduction after posting a .286/.349/.494 batting line. Moved to low-A Beloit in the Midwest League, Portes struggled again. In 288 plate appearances with Beloit he struck out 55 times (a 19.1% strikeout rate). Even though his numbers with Beloit were less than ideal (.231/.278/.310), the 20-year-old Portes was advanced to High-A Ft. Myers. Quickly the promising career that Portes started with was heading in the opposite direction. However, his numbers rebounded at Ft. Myers (.269/.336/.410) where he had a career-high 553 plate appearances and 89 strikeouts (a 16.1% strikeout rate) once again reaffirming the belief that Portes could be a major league player eventually.

4) Brian Buscher -- 3rd base -- Decrease of 3.6%.

In 524 plate appearances with Double-A Connecticut in 2006, Buscher struck out 75 times (a strikeout rate of 14.3%). Picked up by the Twins in the 2007 Rule 5 Minor League draft, Buscher split time between Double-A New Britain, Triple-A Rochester and finally the Twins. In that duration, Buscher had 529 plate appearances and struck out only 57 times (a 10.7% strikeout rate). This improvement is further highlighted by his decrease from 17.1% strikeout rate in his 484 plate appearances in 2005. What can be determined from this is that Buscher has increased his ability to put the ball in play -- a significant prerequisite to getting a base hit -- following an aborted winter league performance, a strong spring could place Buscher at the top of the short third base candidate list.

3) Drew Butera -- catcher -- Decrease of 5.6%.

Like Buscher, Butera spent 2006 in a different organization (the Mets) but has intimate knowledge of the Twins franchise considering his paternal connections (his dad is Sal Butera ). Butera was assigned to Single-A Hagerstown where he had 348 plate appearances, of those he struck out 69 times (a strikeout rate of 19.8%). Beginning in 2007, the Mets placed Butera in High-A St. Lucie where midseason he was packaged with Dustin Martin for Luis Castillo. Butera reported to New Britain and was promoted to Rochester. In that time span, Butura was given 387 plate appearances and reduced his strikeouts to 55 times (a rate of 14.2%). While it isn't out of the realm of possibility that Butera may end up being a back-up catcher candidate for the Twins in 2010, it is more than likely the 24-year-old Butera will be blocked by Mauer and Redman and will be repackaged or released.

2) Matt Allegra -- right field -- Decrease of 6.6%

Matt Allegra, like Butera and Buscher before him, was drafted by a different team. Allegra was drafted by the Oakland Athletics out of Manatee Junior College in Florida in the 16th round. In his tenure with the A's, Allegra sampled several different levels before they let him leave as a minor league free agent following his 2006 season split between High-A Stockton and Double-A Midland. Allegra struck out 128 times in 436 plate appearances (a 29.3% strikeout rate). Prior to the 2007 season, the Twins signed Allegra and placed him in New Britain. Allegra received 414 plate appearances and managed to cut down his strikeouts to 94 (a 22.7% strikeout rate), but is still obviously a free-swinger. While this is a significant improvement and could imply that Allegra has indeed been able increase his contact by a small adjustment or being able to recognize pitches better, there is also the possibility of regression. The mitigating factor is that the Twins do not have many outfield prospects (two lighter following the Rule 5 draft) so Allegra will be in Rochester to open the 2008 season. We should continue to monitor his progress.

1) Jose Morales -- catcher -- Decrease of 9.3%

Discovered in Puerto Rico, Morales was drafted as a shortstop in the 3rd round by the Twins in 2001 (77th overall). Morales played second base until 2003 where he was moved behind the plate while with the Quad City River Bandits. By 2004, Morales was a full-time catcher. (The problem though was that 76 picks earlier in 2001 the Twins had drafted a high school catcher from St Paul named Joe Mauer). Offensively, Morales was decent. That same season Morales hit .286/.339/.386 in the Florida State League and was named to the all-star team. After missing significant time in 2005, Morales came back with New Britain in 2006 and hit a paltry .215/.280/.319 in 251 at-bats. In 282 plate appearances, Morales struck out 56 times (a 19.9% strikeout rate). After a promotion in 2007 to Rochester, Morales had a career year where in 108 games he hit .311/.366/.399 and was called up to the Twins on September 8th, 2007. He had one of the best debuts for a Twins player in quite some time. In three at-bats, Morales had three hits (including a double and a run scored). In the top of the 5th, Morales was hustling to second on a Jason Tyner bunt and was injured on the play. Lifted from the game, his season was officially over. In 418 plate appearances, Morales had struck out 44 times (a greatly reduced 10.6%). Morales, talented but blocked by the Baby Jesus and the Naked Walker, could still find employment on the roster in 2008 as the elusive third catcher that Gardenhire had been vocal about.

It's Official: Monroe's In The Mix.

Most fans suspected as much: the Twins have finally signed Craig Keystone Monroe to a one-year, $3.8 million dollar deal plus incentives (possibly totaling $4 million). As I stated previously, Monroe isn't the worst acquisition the Twins could have made (Butch Husky was, no wait, Tommy Herr), specifically because this is a non-guaranteed contract. If he has a poor performance in spring training Monroe can be released at a cost of $636,667 - a marginal risk.

It is notable that spring training is not the ideal time to pass definitive judgement on a player considering both the sample size and the quality of pitching. Considering all the slack that Rondell White received, unless Monroe proves stupidly ineffective against Double-A pitching at Hammonds Field this March, it is a given that he will be brought north. The problem is that Monroe does not have any competition for the 4th outfield/DH/right-handed bat position. Buuuut he could...

(Warning. Shameless Kevin Mench plea forthcoming).

Milwaukee has officially designated Kevin Mench for assignment. If the Twins were to pursue Mench, they would either have to make a similar trade like they did with the Chicago Cubs for Monroe or wait several days and attempt to sign him to a modest free agent contract (if possible). Another potentially low investment to build depth. If we were to compare the two option in the parameters of the defined role (4th outfielder/Right-Handed Bat vs Lefties) we find that both have two different offerings to the organization:

Defensively in 2007 neither would be classified as specialists. Far from. Mench spent his time in Milwaukee platooning with Geoff Jenkins in both left and right field while Monroe was the everyday left fielder in Detroit until traded at which point Chicago didn't seem to know what to do with him (playing 39 innings in center and 46 in left). Monroe played 795 innings in left field for Detroit with only 3 errors (.982 fielding percentage) and throwing out 6 runners on the bathpaths. Of 152 balls in his zone, Monroe was able to make the play on 129 (a .849 rzr rating) on top of which he made 33 plays on balls hit out of his zone. With Mench splitting his time between Jenkins, Mench played only 377 innings in left field. Even though he did not commit any errors (1.000 fielding percentage), it is another misleading statistic: 47 balls were hit in Mench's zone and he made plays on only 38 of them (a .809 rzr rating) and he was only able to make 17 plays outside of his zone. In 219 innings in right field, Mench had 53 balls in his zone and made the play on 47 of them (a .868 rzr rating), he made two fielding errors reducing his percentage (.976) but he did throw out another 3 baserunners (equaling Monroe's total) and made 10 plays on balls out of his zone totaling 27 between left and right field.

While Monroe is better at covering ground, both seem to have reasonable arms and make few errors. Considering the limited time that either would actually spend on the field, I'd declare this a push. If you are placing Mench in the field, you wouldn't be losing a substantial amount of glove and if you were to use Monroe, you would not necessarily gain that much defensive either.

left field - 2007	innings played	errors	fielding percentage	runners thrown out	rzr percentage	ooz
monroe	795	3	.982	6	.849	33
mench	377	0	1.000	3	.809	17

*hardball times

If either of these players were to get at-bats against RIGHT-handed pitching, neither would improve the line-up (and with Kubel available, this should never be an option).

vs. righties - 2007	home runs	average	on-base percentage	slugging
monroe	6	.197	.247	.308
mench	0	.212	.261	.303

*baseball-reference

The peripheral numbers here tells the same story:

vs. righties - 2007	plate appearances	bb%	k%	xbh%	hr%	ops+
monroe	287	6.2%	27.5%	6.2%	2.0%	75
mench	142	5.7%	7.7%	7.7%	0.0%	56

Monroe is slightly better than Mench against the righties but also was given twice as many plate appearances.

To say that the Twins were offensively deficient against left-handed pitching would be an understatement. Grossly ineffective is more appropriate. Of the three players that were able to provide production, one is now in Anaheim, and Delmon Young has been acquired to hopefully replace that offset that loss. Therefore, either Monroe or Mench would be asked to improve on that. In 2007, both players had roughly the same amount of plate appearances versus left-handed pitching (Monroe's 144 to Mench's 166) with seemingly similar but ultimately different results:

vs. lefties - 2007	home runs	average	on-base percentage	slugging
monroe	6	.271	.309	.469
mench	8	.314	.343	.558

*baseball-reference

When you dissect the peripheral numbers further you will find that Mench is a better option because of his considerably higher contact rate (14.0% less strikeouts per plate appearance) with nearly identical power.

vs. lefties - 2007	plate appearances	bb%	k%	xbh%	hr%	ops+
monroe	140	5.0%	20.0%	12.1%	4.2%	99
mench	166	4.8%	6.0%	12.0%	4.8%	139

Mench is on-base more and making more contact than Monroe when facing lefties. If Gardenhire were to maximize production against left-handed pitching, such as getting runners on and moving them over, he would be rewarded by implementing Mench.

I anticipate a team like the A's or Blue Jays who analyze talent less on appearance (i.e. Matt Stairs) and more on the offensive production to sign Mench to a small contract much like the one Stairs was inked to last season.

The problem is that if Mench were to be used for the National League team, he would had to be played in the field. The added incentive in the American League is that as a designated hitter, Mench would not have to play the field. With Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer available, Mench would never have to see the field when lefties are pitching. At this point, Mench is grossly undervalued. Admittedly at times it would appear that I have a man-crush on Mench, however I have a complete opposite sentiment towards Mench after reading the Journal-Sentinel's Brewers Blog comments. Judging from the numbers, Brewers manager Ned Yost did use Mench in the correct manner, limiting his plate appearance versus righties to minimum. His body type earned him nicknamed Shrek has opened the door for ridicule. Brewers fans have decided that he took up roster space when in reality he was quite productive in his limited role.

Meanwhile, Monroe's production has declined and probably leveled off and he provided the Tigers with 3 win shares in 2007, Mench in his limited role gave the Brewers 8. On the record I am not anti-Monroe nor do I think that Mench is the Twins key to the postseason, however introducing Mench as a possible option would a) give motivation to Monroe, b) better comparison during spring training and c) be one of the least expensive acquisitions that would improve the lack of offensive against left-handed pitching. On paper (or more appropriately, on blog) the Twins would stand to gain more from Mench than Monroe.

The Anatomy of a Rumor (Shortstop Edition)

When you look at the projected Twins lineup for 2008 it appears to contain more gaps than all the regional malls in America combined. Despite finding a right-handed bat to replace Torii Hunter's offensively, Billy Smith has not yet addressed problems that existed at the end of 2007 season (third and center) and recent openings that were created when trading Bartlett to Tampa (short and leadoff). There is more certainty with who will be on the presidential ballot; the Twins middle infield is anybody's guess.

In his press conference with reporters at the winter meetings, Ron Gardenhire attempted to offer some resolve to the matter from the manager's perch. Inquiring as to what the manager thought about the shortstop situation Gardenhire said, "We got Harris in the mix. We've got Punto and Casilla. We've got some good young infielders. I think Harris looks like offensively he can do something offensively: He can swing the bat. If he comes in and shows that he can move around a little bit and make the routines plays and all those things, he'll get a good look at it."

When asked about his recent shortstop dilemma's solution could come from outside the organization, Gardenhire kept the door open for a possibility of a trade or free agent signing. "Not going to back ourselves in a corner," Gardy said, "There could be possibility of going out and finding somebody and making a move to get a shortstop if you had to. If one pops up in your face, you're not going to back away from it, but we've got people in-house that can -- we think can do the job. We don't know that, but we think it. I know Punto can."

From Gardenhire's perspective (not necessarily the Twins front office, mind you) the shortstop options are: 1) Brendan Harris, 2) Nick Punto, 3) Alexi Casilla (Although the possibility seems slight. In a subsequent question, Gardy said "Casilla is kind of a loose cannon. He can make some of greatest plays in the world, and he can get a little out of whack."), 4) Unknown Free Agent, and 5) Unknown Traded Player.

In the ensuing question, a reporter pressed if David Eckstein - who makes an "exorbitant" amount of money - was someone Gardy would be interested in for shortstop Gardy replied, "Yes, I've had a lot of respect for him. A winner. Proven winner. Guys like that, you know, those are decisions and things we'll talk about as you go along."

This one response to a loaded question has incited plenty of chatter in message boards demonizing Gardenhire's preferences. The phrasing of the question reads as follows: "Guy like Eckstein, whose salary is exorbitant." That is barely a question. Even an inept defense attorney would have been screaming "Objection! Leading the witness." Nevertheless, ESPN's Jerry Cransick fueled the fire by writing in the ESPN winter meetings blog that: "With the Twins in search of middle-infield help, one potential target is free agent David Eckstein. "I've always had a lot of respect for him," said Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire. "He catches the ball. He knows how to play. He's a proven winner."

This is a great example of how much weight to put into so-called rumors reported on by even respectable media. Desperate for blog fodder, Cransick did some quick math: Twins have a need at shortstop in addition to Gardy is seemingly infatuated with Eckstein (based upon his interview response). Ergo, the Twins must be interested in signing David Eckstein.

When the interview is read in context, it would appear that no logical person would read further into Gardy's answer for several reasons:

1) If Gardy did offer a derogatory or negative response towards Eckstein and the front office signs Eck anyways, Gardy has now backed himself into a corner and has invited a disgruntled shortstop situation even before the cleats hit the turf. As a major league manager, he knows part of his position is being a mayor.

2) Consider the free agent in question. Eck has been able to command a healthy salary based on the notion that he is a "proven winner" playing in the World Series with both the Cardinals and the Angels. That being said, Eckstein is a Type-B free agent, meaning the Twins would have to sacrifice a draft-pick for signing him.

3) Most importantly, the Twins have very similar options internally and are plenty aware of that. As glove men are concerned, Eck is declining. In 2007, he had one of the worst revised-zone-ratings of any starting shortstop in the National League (.783) and the two below him that have played more than 900 innings in the season were Hanley Ramirez (.773) and Stephen Drew (.777). Ramirez hit .332/.386/.562, a powerful bat that can be forgiven for his fielder errors. Drew was making $4.2 million dollars less for providing the Diamondbacks with 4 more win shares than Eckstein (16 WS to 11 WS). Harris, meanwhile, was playing in 200 less innings at shortstop managed to have a the identical revised-zone-rating as Drew (.777) while playing in a more defensively difficult league (American) and division (East). Harris also provided the Rays with 3 additional win shares than Eckstein gave the Cardinals.

Now that the Eckstein-to-Twins rumor has been thoroughly discredited (by Rotoworld too), let's play devil's advocate and suggest the notion that the Twins are currently seeking external candidates for short. Rotoworld reported that Eckstein is looking for a multi-year deal (after all, he is only seven months older than Edgar Renteria) and goes on to state that the Twins would only be interested in a "stop-gap" season and therefore would not be able to come to terms with the free agent. My question is, who are we "stop-gapping" for? Trevor Plouffe may be more than a season away from being major league ready and may not have the makeup of a shortstop (he made 32 errors last season in Double-A). Behind him in the organization's depth chart appears to be the 24-year-old Steven Tolleson who spend last season at Ft. Myers. At the major league level, Harris is better suited for second or third while Punto is better glued to the bench maintaining the Denny Hocking role. Likewise, Casilla will be at second if anywhere at all next season.

Considering the nature of the market for free agent shortstops (Eckstein, Neifi Perez, Royce Clayton), Eckstein is by far the best option. In full disclosure, I think Eckstein is far from an ideal candidate to man the position. Then again Harris, Punto and Casilla are also all far from ideal. Without a doubt Eckstein will be overvalued and qualify for a larger contract than deserved. The money that would be used in signing Eckstein would be better allocated if used in other avenues (dh, 3b, cf). Optimally, it would benefit the Twins to acquire a shortstop through a trade rather than overpay for a shortstop. One that can also bat lead-off.