Most Improved Prospects (Increased Contact Edition)

An organization like the Twins that has limited major-league ready prospects needs to thoroughly scrutinize and monitor the progress of its developing talent considering the increased cost of acquiring a free agent to replace one that isn't homegrown. While I am confident that Jim Rantz and Mike Radcliff have a good handle on the farm system, there are some concerns that talent isn't being expedited as well as it should. For instance, there are no clear cut internal replacements of Torii Hunter since Denard Span has not proven himself of high caliber. Likewise many believe that Matt Tolbert would be a better candidate for second than Nick Punto or Alexi Casilla. Looking at some of the critical peripheral numbers (K%, BB%, XBH%, ISOP, OBP) that changed from 2006 to 2007 will help highlight who these individuals are.

What a high contract rate essentially means is that the prospect is adapting to the pitching at an acceptable pace. If a strikeout rate drops significantly this a sign that a player is ready to be moved to the next level or conversely it is a symptom that the player will need more time to develop (or perhaps may never be moving hire). The low strikeout rate (strikeouts/plate appearances) indicates that a player is maximizing his plate appearances by putting the ball into play and placing the burden on the defense (we will dissect the quality of balls-in-play at a later date). These analytics are solid performance evaluations for prospects.

The top five improved contact:

5) Juan Portes -- infielder/outfielder -- Decrease of 3% between 2006 and 2007.

Drafted in the 15th round of the 2004 draft by the Twins out of a Massachusetts high school, Portes began his career in the Twins Gulf Coast League. In 44 games, Portes hit .327/.380/.530. He began 2005 with Elizabethton where his numbers in 64 games were the beginning of an offensive reduction after posting a .286/.349/.494 batting line. Moved to low-A Beloit in the Midwest League, Portes struggled again. In 288 plate appearances with Beloit he struck out 55 times (a 19.1% strikeout rate). Even though his numbers with Beloit were less than ideal (.231/.278/.310), the 20-year-old Portes was advanced to High-A Ft. Myers. Quickly the promising career that Portes started with was heading in the opposite direction. However, his numbers rebounded at Ft. Myers (.269/.336/.410) where he had a career-high 553 plate appearances and 89 strikeouts (a 16.1% strikeout rate) once again reaffirming the belief that Portes could be a major league player eventually.

4) Brian Buscher -- 3rd base -- Decrease of 3.6%.

In 524 plate appearances with Double-A Connecticut in 2006, Buscher struck out 75 times (a strikeout rate of 14.3%). Picked up by the Twins in the 2007 Rule 5 Minor League draft, Buscher split time between Double-A New Britain, Triple-A Rochester and finally the Twins. In that duration, Buscher had 529 plate appearances and struck out only 57 times (a 10.7% strikeout rate). This improvement is further highlighted by his decrease from 17.1% strikeout rate in his 484 plate appearances in 2005. What can be determined from this is that Buscher has increased his ability to put the ball in play -- a significant prerequisite to getting a base hit -- following an aborted winter league performance, a strong spring could place Buscher at the top of the short third base candidate list.

3) Drew Butera -- catcher -- Decrease of 5.6%.

Like Buscher, Butera spent 2006 in a different organization (the Mets) but has intimate knowledge of the Twins franchise considering his paternal connections (his dad is Sal Butera ). Butera was assigned to Single-A Hagerstown where he had 348 plate appearances, of those he struck out 69 times (a strikeout rate of 19.8%). Beginning in 2007, the Mets placed Butera in High-A St. Lucie where midseason he was packaged with Dustin Martin for Luis Castillo. Butera reported to New Britain and was promoted to Rochester. In that time span, Butura was given 387 plate appearances and reduced his strikeouts to 55 times (a rate of 14.2%). While it isn't out of the realm of possibility that Butera may end up being a back-up catcher candidate for the Twins in 2010, it is more than likely the 24-year-old Butera will be blocked by Mauer and Redman and will be repackaged or released.

2) Matt Allegra -- right field -- Decrease of 6.6%

Matt Allegra, like Butera and Buscher before him, was drafted by a different team. Allegra was drafted by the Oakland Athletics out of Manatee Junior College in Florida in the 16th round. In his tenure with the A's, Allegra sampled several different levels before they let him leave as a minor league free agent following his 2006 season split between High-A Stockton and Double-A Midland. Allegra struck out 128 times in 436 plate appearances (a 29.3% strikeout rate). Prior to the 2007 season, the Twins signed Allegra and placed him in New Britain. Allegra received 414 plate appearances and managed to cut down his strikeouts to 94 (a 22.7% strikeout rate), but is still obviously a free-swinger. While this is a significant improvement and could imply that Allegra has indeed been able increase his contact by a small adjustment or being able to recognize pitches better, there is also the possibility of regression. The mitigating factor is that the Twins do not have many outfield prospects (two lighter following the Rule 5 draft) so Allegra will be in Rochester to open the 2008 season. We should continue to monitor his progress.

1) Jose Morales -- catcher -- Decrease of 9.3%

Discovered in Puerto Rico, Morales was drafted as a shortstop in the 3rd round by the Twins in 2001 (77th overall). Morales played second base until 2003 where he was moved behind the plate while with the Quad City River Bandits. By 2004, Morales was a full-time catcher. (The problem though was that 76 picks earlier in 2001 the Twins had drafted a high school catcher from St Paul named Joe Mauer). Offensively, Morales was decent. That same season Morales hit .286/.339/.386 in the Florida State League and was named to the all-star team. After missing significant time in 2005, Morales came back with New Britain in 2006 and hit a paltry .215/.280/.319 in 251 at-bats. In 282 plate appearances, Morales struck out 56 times (a 19.9% strikeout rate). After a promotion in 2007 to Rochester, Morales had a career year where in 108 games he hit .311/.366/.399 and was called up to the Twins on September 8th, 2007. He had one of the best debuts for a Twins player in quite some time. In three at-bats, Morales had three hits (including a double and a run scored). In the top of the 5th, Morales was hustling to second on a Jason Tyner bunt and was injured on the play. Lifted from the game, his season was officially over. In 418 plate appearances, Morales had struck out 44 times (a greatly reduced 10.6%). Morales, talented but blocked by the Baby Jesus and the Naked Walker, could still find employment on the roster in 2008 as the elusive third catcher that Gardenhire had been vocal about.

It's Official: Monroe's In The Mix.

Most fans suspected as much: the Twins have finally signed Craig Keystone Monroe to a one-year, $3.8 million dollar deal plus incentives (possibly totaling $4 million). As I stated previously, Monroe isn't the worst acquisition the Twins could have made (Butch Husky was, no wait, Tommy Herr), specifically because this is a non-guaranteed contract. If he has a poor performance in spring training Monroe can be released at a cost of $636,667 - a marginal risk.

It is notable that spring training is not the ideal time to pass definitive judgement on a player considering both the sample size and the quality of pitching. Considering all the slack that Rondell White received, unless Monroe proves stupidly ineffective against Double-A pitching at Hammonds Field this March, it is a given that he will be brought north. The problem is that Monroe does not have any competition for the 4th outfield/DH/right-handed bat position. Buuuut he could...

(Warning. Shameless Kevin Mench plea forthcoming).

Milwaukee has officially designated Kevin Mench for assignment. If the Twins were to pursue Mench, they would either have to make a similar trade like they did with the Chicago Cubs for Monroe or wait several days and attempt to sign him to a modest free agent contract (if possible). Another potentially low investment to build depth. If we were to compare the two option in the parameters of the defined role (4th outfielder/Right-Handed Bat vs Lefties) we find that both have two different offerings to the organization:

Defensively in 2007 neither would be classified as specialists. Far from. Mench spent his time in Milwaukee platooning with Geoff Jenkins in both left and right field while Monroe was the everyday left fielder in Detroit until traded at which point Chicago didn't seem to know what to do with him (playing 39 innings in center and 46 in left). Monroe played 795 innings in left field for Detroit with only 3 errors (.982 fielding percentage) and throwing out 6 runners on the bathpaths. Of 152 balls in his zone, Monroe was able to make the play on 129 (a .849 rzr rating) on top of which he made 33 plays on balls hit out of his zone. With Mench splitting his time between Jenkins, Mench played only 377 innings in left field. Even though he did not commit any errors (1.000 fielding percentage), it is another misleading statistic: 47 balls were hit in Mench's zone and he made plays on only 38 of them (a .809 rzr rating) and he was only able to make 17 plays outside of his zone. In 219 innings in right field, Mench had 53 balls in his zone and made the play on 47 of them (a .868 rzr rating), he made two fielding errors reducing his percentage (.976) but he did throw out another 3 baserunners (equaling Monroe's total) and made 10 plays on balls out of his zone totaling 27 between left and right field.

While Monroe is better at covering ground, both seem to have reasonable arms and make few errors. Considering the limited time that either would actually spend on the field, I'd declare this a push. If you are placing Mench in the field, you wouldn't be losing a substantial amount of glove and if you were to use Monroe, you would not necessarily gain that much defensive either.

left field - 2007	innings played	errors	fielding percentage	runners thrown out	rzr percentage	ooz
monroe	795	3	.982	6	.849	33
mench	377	0	1.000	3	.809	17

*hardball times

If either of these players were to get at-bats against RIGHT-handed pitching, neither would improve the line-up (and with Kubel available, this should never be an option).

vs. righties - 2007	home runs	average	on-base percentage	slugging
monroe	6	.197	.247	.308
mench	0	.212	.261	.303

*baseball-reference

The peripheral numbers here tells the same story:

vs. righties - 2007	plate appearances	bb%	k%	xbh%	hr%	ops+
monroe	287	6.2%	27.5%	6.2%	2.0%	75
mench	142	5.7%	7.7%	7.7%	0.0%	56

Monroe is slightly better than Mench against the righties but also was given twice as many plate appearances.

To say that the Twins were offensively deficient against left-handed pitching would be an understatement. Grossly ineffective is more appropriate. Of the three players that were able to provide production, one is now in Anaheim, and Delmon Young has been acquired to hopefully replace that offset that loss. Therefore, either Monroe or Mench would be asked to improve on that. In 2007, both players had roughly the same amount of plate appearances versus left-handed pitching (Monroe's 144 to Mench's 166) with seemingly similar but ultimately different results:

vs. lefties - 2007	home runs	average	on-base percentage	slugging
monroe	6	.271	.309	.469
mench	8	.314	.343	.558

*baseball-reference

When you dissect the peripheral numbers further you will find that Mench is a better option because of his considerably higher contact rate (14.0% less strikeouts per plate appearance) with nearly identical power.

vs. lefties - 2007	plate appearances	bb%	k%	xbh%	hr%	ops+
monroe	140	5.0%	20.0%	12.1%	4.2%	99
mench	166	4.8%	6.0%	12.0%	4.8%	139

Mench is on-base more and making more contact than Monroe when facing lefties. If Gardenhire were to maximize production against left-handed pitching, such as getting runners on and moving them over, he would be rewarded by implementing Mench.

I anticipate a team like the A's or Blue Jays who analyze talent less on appearance (i.e. Matt Stairs) and more on the offensive production to sign Mench to a small contract much like the one Stairs was inked to last season.

The problem is that if Mench were to be used for the National League team, he would had to be played in the field. The added incentive in the American League is that as a designated hitter, Mench would not have to play the field. With Delmon Young and Michael Cuddyer available, Mench would never have to see the field when lefties are pitching. At this point, Mench is grossly undervalued. Admittedly at times it would appear that I have a man-crush on Mench, however I have a complete opposite sentiment towards Mench after reading the Journal-Sentinel's Brewers Blog comments. Judging from the numbers, Brewers manager Ned Yost did use Mench in the correct manner, limiting his plate appearance versus righties to minimum. His body type earned him nicknamed Shrek has opened the door for ridicule. Brewers fans have decided that he took up roster space when in reality he was quite productive in his limited role.

Meanwhile, Monroe's production has declined and probably leveled off and he provided the Tigers with 3 win shares in 2007, Mench in his limited role gave the Brewers 8. On the record I am not anti-Monroe nor do I think that Mench is the Twins key to the postseason, however introducing Mench as a possible option would a) give motivation to Monroe, b) better comparison during spring training and c) be one of the least expensive acquisitions that would improve the lack of offensive against left-handed pitching. On paper (or more appropriately, on blog) the Twins would stand to gain more from Mench than Monroe.

The Anatomy of a Rumor (Shortstop Edition)

When you look at the projected Twins lineup for 2008 it appears to contain more gaps than all the regional malls in America combined. Despite finding a right-handed bat to replace Torii Hunter's offensively, Billy Smith has not yet addressed problems that existed at the end of 2007 season (third and center) and recent openings that were created when trading Bartlett to Tampa (short and leadoff). There is more certainty with who will be on the presidential ballot; the Twins middle infield is anybody's guess.

In his press conference with reporters at the winter meetings, Ron Gardenhire attempted to offer some resolve to the matter from the manager's perch. Inquiring as to what the manager thought about the shortstop situation Gardenhire said, "We got Harris in the mix. We've got Punto and Casilla. We've got some good young infielders. I think Harris looks like offensively he can do something offensively: He can swing the bat. If he comes in and shows that he can move around a little bit and make the routines plays and all those things, he'll get a good look at it."

When asked about his recent shortstop dilemma's solution could come from outside the organization, Gardenhire kept the door open for a possibility of a trade or free agent signing. "Not going to back ourselves in a corner," Gardy said, "There could be possibility of going out and finding somebody and making a move to get a shortstop if you had to. If one pops up in your face, you're not going to back away from it, but we've got people in-house that can -- we think can do the job. We don't know that, but we think it. I know Punto can."

From Gardenhire's perspective (not necessarily the Twins front office, mind you) the shortstop options are: 1) Brendan Harris, 2) Nick Punto, 3) Alexi Casilla (Although the possibility seems slight. In a subsequent question, Gardy said "Casilla is kind of a loose cannon. He can make some of greatest plays in the world, and he can get a little out of whack."), 4) Unknown Free Agent, and 5) Unknown Traded Player.

In the ensuing question, a reporter pressed if David Eckstein - who makes an "exorbitant" amount of money - was someone Gardy would be interested in for shortstop Gardy replied, "Yes, I've had a lot of respect for him. A winner. Proven winner. Guys like that, you know, those are decisions and things we'll talk about as you go along."

This one response to a loaded question has incited plenty of chatter in message boards demonizing Gardenhire's preferences. The phrasing of the question reads as follows: "Guy like Eckstein, whose salary is exorbitant." That is barely a question. Even an inept defense attorney would have been screaming "Objection! Leading the witness." Nevertheless, ESPN's Jerry Cransick fueled the fire by writing in the ESPN winter meetings blog that: "With the Twins in search of middle-infield help, one potential target is free agent David Eckstein. "I've always had a lot of respect for him," said Minnesota manager Ron Gardenhire. "He catches the ball. He knows how to play. He's a proven winner."

This is a great example of how much weight to put into so-called rumors reported on by even respectable media. Desperate for blog fodder, Cransick did some quick math: Twins have a need at shortstop in addition to Gardy is seemingly infatuated with Eckstein (based upon his interview response). Ergo, the Twins must be interested in signing David Eckstein.

When the interview is read in context, it would appear that no logical person would read further into Gardy's answer for several reasons:

1) If Gardy did offer a derogatory or negative response towards Eckstein and the front office signs Eck anyways, Gardy has now backed himself into a corner and has invited a disgruntled shortstop situation even before the cleats hit the turf. As a major league manager, he knows part of his position is being a mayor.

2) Consider the free agent in question. Eck has been able to command a healthy salary based on the notion that he is a "proven winner" playing in the World Series with both the Cardinals and the Angels. That being said, Eckstein is a Type-B free agent, meaning the Twins would have to sacrifice a draft-pick for signing him.

3) Most importantly, the Twins have very similar options internally and are plenty aware of that. As glove men are concerned, Eck is declining. In 2007, he had one of the worst revised-zone-ratings of any starting shortstop in the National League (.783) and the two below him that have played more than 900 innings in the season were Hanley Ramirez (.773) and Stephen Drew (.777). Ramirez hit .332/.386/.562, a powerful bat that can be forgiven for his fielder errors. Drew was making $4.2 million dollars less for providing the Diamondbacks with 4 more win shares than Eckstein (16 WS to 11 WS). Harris, meanwhile, was playing in 200 less innings at shortstop managed to have a the identical revised-zone-rating as Drew (.777) while playing in a more defensively difficult league (American) and division (East). Harris also provided the Rays with 3 additional win shares than Eckstein gave the Cardinals.

Now that the Eckstein-to-Twins rumor has been thoroughly discredited (by Rotoworld too), let's play devil's advocate and suggest the notion that the Twins are currently seeking external candidates for short. Rotoworld reported that Eckstein is looking for a multi-year deal (after all, he is only seven months older than Edgar Renteria) and goes on to state that the Twins would only be interested in a "stop-gap" season and therefore would not be able to come to terms with the free agent. My question is, who are we "stop-gapping" for? Trevor Plouffe may be more than a season away from being major league ready and may not have the makeup of a shortstop (he made 32 errors last season in Double-A). Behind him in the organization's depth chart appears to be the 24-year-old Steven Tolleson who spend last season at Ft. Myers. At the major league level, Harris is better suited for second or third while Punto is better glued to the bench maintaining the Denny Hocking role. Likewise, Casilla will be at second if anywhere at all next season.

Considering the nature of the market for free agent shortstops (Eckstein, Neifi Perez, Royce Clayton), Eckstein is by far the best option. In full disclosure, I think Eckstein is far from an ideal candidate to man the position. Then again Harris, Punto and Casilla are also all far from ideal. Without a doubt Eckstein will be overvalued and qualify for a larger contract than deserved. The money that would be used in signing Eckstein would be better allocated if used in other avenues (dh, 3b, cf). Optimally, it would benefit the Twins to acquire a shortstop through a trade rather than overpay for a shortstop. One that can also bat lead-off.

Rule 5: See You Real Soon.

What I enjoy about the Rule 5 draft picks is the scrutiny that must (or at least should) take place within an organization prior to their selection. Everybody knows the stories of how one team recognized the talent in Kevin Cameron, Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, Johan Santana and Bobby Bonilla that their previous owners failed to capitalize on. Your Rays, Pirates, Royals and Nationals should all benefit from having the opportunity to at least sample on a trial basis some of the either forgotten or overlooked talent. The worse your team finishes, the better chance you have of obtain the one or two quality players available during the draft. But first, you must have a opening somewhere on your roster for a player that another organization has deemed not in their top-40. Then you go shopping hoping to obtain something useful from the bottom of the barrel. Finally you have to determine whether the draft pick is worth the space on your roster during spring training or risk losing $25,000 dollars when sending him back. If you think about it, it could be a hell of a reality show on ESPN.

Which brings me to the Minnesota Twins. While I suspect none of the players will not amount to a hill of beans and most likely make their way back to our farm system like cows out for a mid-afternoon stroll, it is telling that 10% of the total Rule 5 draft picks (major and minor leagues) had been developed by the Minnesota Twins (11.6% if you include former draft pick cum Tampa Bay Ray Evan Meek ). Scouting Director Mike Radcliff told the Pioneer Press's Phil Miller that “it’s a glass-half-full sort of thing. We’re disappointed to lose players we’ve invested in, but it means we have talent in our organization.” Talent that went unrecognized. Part of what a franchise needs to do is monitoring the market and gauging the interest of other clubs for players that might not be in the organization's long-term plans and work a trade. With holes in the infield and outfield, the Twins could have potentially traded Cameron prior to the Rule 5 draft in 2006 for a similar caliber player that could develop into a major league centerfielder. What one team ignores, another might value. It speaks volumes that we may have internally ignored 3 of the 18 players drafted.

The three that were selected in the major league portion (thankfully none named Yohan Pino) are as follows:

1st Pick (1st player drafted): Rays take yet another Twins pitcher (but immediately trade him to Cubs ). Tampa had a prearranged deal with the Cubs for $150,000 ($100,000 after the $50,000 draft fee) for the Rays to select Lahey then hand him over. "He's got real good sink with a ground ball ratio of almost 3-to-1 and the makings of a pretty good slider," Cubs farm director Oneri Fleita said. "It's amazing—I think he has 178, 179 innings and has less than a hit per inning pitched. That's pretty good for a guy who just got converted. We're excited to see him." In the 20th round of the 2004 amateur draft the Twins selected catcher Timothy Lahey from Princeton. After finishing 2004 in Elizabethton with 84 at-bats and a weak .202/.317/.333 line, the Twins decided to move him from behind the plate and onto the mound (inviting plenty of comparisons to Troy Percival). Lahey threw 25.1 innings with Elizabethton and struckout 30 while saving 15 games in 2005. The following season Lahey was moved to High-A Fort Myers where he pitched in 44 games. Facing 315 batters, Lahey had a 18.1% strikeout rate and a 8.6% walk rate and managed to get hitters to beat the ball into the ground 65% of balls-in-play. Scouts began saying he was throwing a "heavy ball" and was deceptive due to the short-armed, catcher-style motion that Lahey had. Baseball America compared it to that of Keith Foulke's. In 2007, Lahey was escorted to Double-A New Britain where he faced more polished hitters. While his strikeout rate (16.3%) and walkrate (9.6%) remained consistent, he surrendered home runs in 8% of the balls-in-play and his groundball capabilities declined to 53%.

I am convinced that Lahey would not have been able to ascend to the Twins as a closer or even in mop-up duties. There were too many pitching prospects ahead of him. His stock may have escalated due to saves and caught the attention of several organizations. I would assume that there was a sentiment within the Twins organization that Lahey would be expendable. After all, he was not protected prior to this draft. Conversely, they also must have known that he possess some qualities in a pitcher that is highly sought after. Qualities that some teams, like the Cubs, who would be willing to trade a surplus of minor league outfielders for. Wish we had the opportunity to have a swap-meet.

15th Pick (12th player drafted): Mariners take Dickey. The Twins had just "passed" with their 11th overall selection followed by three more passes when Seattle snagged another Twins pitcher. The newly-anointed knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, who the Twins signed to a minor league contract less than a month ago, was drafted by the Mariners. "It's a great opportunity for him [Dickey] because he got a roster spot out of it that he didn't have with us. He goes to their big league camp," Bill Smith told the AP. "We were a little disappointed because we were kind of excited to have him."

The 33-year-old Dickey had spent significant time in the Rangers organization and saw ample duty in both spot-starting and long relief. Dickey threw in over 221 innings with 151 strikeouts with the Rangers in 2003 and 2004. Last season the Brewers used Dickey as a starter for their Triple-A Nashville associate. That is when Dickey discovered the knuck. Facing 707 batters in 2007, Dickey struck out 16.8% of them and issued free-passes to 8.5%. His knuck was effective at getting the groundball on nearly 55% of balls-in-play. Despite the stigma of being over 30 years old Dickey reinvented himself as a knuckleballer coming into the 2007 where he ended up with a 13-6 record (but 10-2 and a 2.52 era after June 1st) in the Pacific Coast League. His final 3.72 era was almost a full earn run under the PCL's average of 4.68.

Even though it is more likely that Dickey will make his way back to the Twins after spring training, USS Mariner speculates what sort of hilarity could ensue after a flame-thrower like Felix Hernandez is replaced with a butterfly throwing reliever like Dickey. Even if Dickey was not selected in the Rule 5 he would have been a dark-horse to break camp with the Twins. Still I was looking forward to watching the knuckleballer at Hammond Field and the Mariners have stole that from me.

(Aside: Great New Yorker article about the lost art of the knuckleball.)

(17th player drafted): Nationals pick up yet another outfielder. In an attempt to have the only 25-man roster made up entirely of outfielders (Dukes, Logan, Kearns, Mo Pena, Langerhas, etc), the Washington Nationals grabbed 25-year-old Garrett Guzman. Baseball America describes him as Orlando Palmerio-ish: an undersized, left-handed fourth outfielder. Nats General Manager Jim Bowden agrees: "We think he can be a fourth outfielder in the big leagues right now. He's a quality kid who hits the ball hard, he goes the other way with it."

In New Britain in 2007, Guzman outperformed his career line (.290/.339/.439) with a .312/.359/.453 season. His 74 ops+ was his best since his 18-year-old rookie season of 326+. In subsequent seasons after his whopping .967 in the Gulf Coast League Guzman's production declined and leveled posting ops+ of 62, 58, 11 and 18 in Low-A, High-A and Double-A. This tells me that he had a gross inflation of production in 2007. His stock could not have been higher. The Twins's system was desperate for outfielders and probably read too much into some of his early statistics but ultimately decided that he might not have the same output as his 2007 season. At 25-years-old and facing Double-A pitching for the second straight year does not scream major league ready. They don't speak too highly of him in Washington neither.

Deflating Detroit Rock City

In 2003, the Detroit Tigers had lost 119 games. Five years later in 2008, 119 wins is a reality.

Mitch Albom, Detroit Free-Press columnist and sob-story novelist, wrote a column following the Cabrera/Willis trade tossing acclimates around but not yet notifying the Motor City citizens to start stockpiling ticker-tape for next November. Jason Stark at ESPN has also stated that the American League pennant goes through Motown as well. Phil Roger's is raving about the deal, in fact, he has already crowned Detroit AL Central champs and the second-best team behind Boston (he currently has the Twins ranked third in the division but ready to fall if Santana or Nathan is dealt). FoxSport's Ken Rosenthal loves them too. Hell, Bud Selig should just have the trophy thing engraved now. Get the discount.

On paper this team looks good. Too good. Insanely good. $130 million a year good. This 2008 squad is reminiscent of the All-Star line-up Homer Simpson's softball team had when playing the annual softball game against the rival power plant and Mr. Burns went out and acquired ringers (not before Smithers had to inform him that his right fielder had been dead for over a hundred and thirty years). Undoubtedly with a roster that included Ozzie Smith, Jose Canseco, Daryl Strawberry, Roger Clemens, etc, etc, it was expected that the team was going to win that softball game. Only the night before the big game -- one by one -- the players started disappearing (Ozzie Smith's ride in the blackhole) or arrest for all the unsolved murders in New York (Steve Sax) or gargantunism (Ken Griffey Jr). These are the sort of events that will need to unfold in order to keep this Tiger lineup at bay. Nothing short of localized global warming, entirely concentrated in the Greater Detroit area will keep this from being the one of the most formidable team ever. That or maybe we just send them all an invite to a "get to know your new teammates" party in some warehouse which we will stock with HGH and steroids. We'll lock them in, call the feds. Baseball players within close proximity to performance enhancing drugs? Case closed.

It is not my nature to be entirely that doom-and-gloom. I for one am not ready to have Metrodome ushers hand me prepunched All-Star ballots for all-Tigers. Always your source for Glass-Is-Half-Empty for your division rivals, I have constructed several talking points that might alleviate this constant chatter that already has Detroit crowned World Series champions for the next infinity years:

1) Renteria and Sheffield are least likely to replicate their career numbers. With injuries and age, these two might not have the opportunity to live up to their projections. At 31, Renteria played in his fewest games (124) since his rookie season (106). His defensive numbers are a tad misleading considering his fielding percentage has not change meanwhile, according to the Hardball Times, his revised-zone-rating has was his lowest last season (.815) since his short-lived Boston endeavor (.805). While the .815 RZR mark would have been good enough for third in the American League, in the National League it was only good enough for 8th. The shortstop crop in the AL is a) shallow and b) forced to defend against one more batter (the dh) who can typically rake (exception: Tyner, Jason). This increased offense in the American League exposed Renteria as a passable shortstop while he was with Boston. Expect him to decline in defense similar to his transition to Boston and put up a line just as similar to his Red Sox days .276/.335/.385 (in a right-handed hitter friendly park, no less!).

Sheffield, meanwhile, is old. In 2008 he will be 39. While he still can pack a punch (25 home runs in 494 at-bats), his final line in his first season with Detriot was much lower than previous seasons in with he accumulated nearly 500 at-bats (.265/.378/.462). Sheffield still has a penchant for drawing walks and taking pitches (4.1 pitches per plate appearance). In 2007, he had an isolated slugging of .321 in May and .270 in June where he hit 16 of his 25 home runs. He faded almost as fast as he started, ending August with a .093 ISOP and September with .062 ISOP. This decline could be attributed to aging, where a player no longer has the wherewithal to last 162 games. When you consider it, spring training beginning in March through September would be a tough stretch for any 39-year-old that is being asked to contribute everyday, even if it is only as a dh. My inclination is that Sheff will have a similar season in 2008 as he did in 2007, only with more games on the DL and fewer home runs due to a overall drop in power later in the season. Curious side note: he was able to tie his second highest amount of stolen bases (22), a mark he established at 29-years-old, nearly a decade prior.

2) Does anyone really believe Todd Jones is a lights-out closer? Whenever Todd Jones was asked to closer out the Twins, I never had that overwhelming feeling of closure as I did when Troy Percival or Mariano Rivera were in their prime. Part of the reason is that he is the most underwhelming closer in baseball today (not named Joe Borowski). Of the 265 batters faced, Jones managed to strike out only 12.5% of them. This strikeout rate is borderline for a major league pitcher, let alone the guy you hand over to protect the game in 9th. Couple the lack of strikeouts with his obscene 8.7% walkrate and the fact that Jones only was able to use his good glove infield on only 45.6% of balls-in-play is not a good definition for the word "lights-out". What this indicates is that Jones has been the recipient of both good luck and a lax definition of a "save". The hard work had been performed by Zumaya or Rodney. Jones was ushered in to not hand over a 3 or 4 run lead, which he only managed to do in 86% of his save opportunities. In 2008, Jones will be without his set-ups in Zumaya and Rodney missed a significant portion of the season with various arm injuries. Word is that the Tigers are looking to sign Latroy Hawkins. Hawkins who was able to induce groundballs 65% of the time last season, will be a disaster minus his Colorado Rockies defense. Pending any trades involving Inge or Marcus Thames for bullpen help, the Tigers have a soft-spot once the starting pitchers are removed from the game.

3) The Tigers seem pretty set on sending Jacque Jones up to the plate three times or more a game. I am not the one to inform Detroit that Jacque is your prototypical free-swinging out machine. In his book, "Fantasyland", Sam Walker used his sports writer credentials to obtain insider information by accessing the players directly in the locker rooms. In one chapter Walker described an encounter with then-Twin Jacque Jones discussing the recent Ron Shandler book. The stats from Shandler's book essentially pegged Jones as a hitter that had incredible luck and was sure to decline in productivity due to his high strikeout rate and batting average on balls-in-play. Jones reviewed Shandler's book with Walker looming over head and was utterly dejected. Following that 2004 season, Shandler was exactly right as Jones regressed from a .304/.333/.464 hitter into a .254/.315/.427 hitter when some of the balls-in-play stopped falling to the turf. After signing with the Cubs, Jones rebounded with a .285/.334/.499 2006 season but saw his power disappeared in 2007, as he finished .285/.335/.400. His home run production decreased sharply as he had been hitting home runs in 3.9% (2004), 3.9% (2005) and 4.6% (2006) of his plate appearance while ending with home runs in 1.0% of his plate appearance last season. This may be triggered by a focus to make better contact. His strikeout rate was the lowest ever in 2007 (14.1%).

Meanwhile, Jones is notoriously inept versus left-handed pitching. If the speculation is true and the Tigers do unload Marcus Thames to compensate for the increased payroll, Jones will certainly be asked to face the league's southpaws. In his career, Jones has managed to put up a Puntoesque .233/.281/.355 line. This makes Jones a prime candidate to bring in your lefty specialist forcing Leyland to use his bench early.

Last of all, I take comfort in knowing that all Twins fans have the scouting report down on Jacque Jones: breaking stuff over the right-handed batters box. He can't hit them, he can't lay off.

4) Magglio Ordonez will not have the same type of year as he did in 2007. While regression seems to be my fall back defense, of all the players in the Tigers line-up Ordonez has to be far and above the most likely candidate to have a regressed season if for no other reason than his 2007 campaign was monstrous. As a 33-year-old, Ordonez put up an MVP-type year with a .363/.434/.595 line. Rediculous for a career .312/.370/.522 hitter. Make no mistake, Ordonez can rake. However, while a very patient hitter (12.3% walkrate in 2007) and a keen batting eye (11.6% strikeout rate in 2007), again Ordonez is another example of a Tiger getting extremely lucky: His batting average of balls in play was .383. That sort of production is bound to decrease (probably back down to his 2006 level of .317, but still...).