Rule 5: See You Real Soon.

What I enjoy about the Rule 5 draft picks is the scrutiny that must (or at least should) take place within an organization prior to their selection. Everybody knows the stories of how one team recognized the talent in Kevin Cameron, Josh Hamilton, Dan Uggla, Johan Santana and Bobby Bonilla that their previous owners failed to capitalize on. Your Rays, Pirates, Royals and Nationals should all benefit from having the opportunity to at least sample on a trial basis some of the either forgotten or overlooked talent. The worse your team finishes, the better chance you have of obtain the one or two quality players available during the draft. But first, you must have a opening somewhere on your roster for a player that another organization has deemed not in their top-40. Then you go shopping hoping to obtain something useful from the bottom of the barrel. Finally you have to determine whether the draft pick is worth the space on your roster during spring training or risk losing $25,000 dollars when sending him back. If you think about it, it could be a hell of a reality show on ESPN.

Which brings me to the Minnesota Twins. While I suspect none of the players will not amount to a hill of beans and most likely make their way back to our farm system like cows out for a mid-afternoon stroll, it is telling that 10% of the total Rule 5 draft picks (major and minor leagues) had been developed by the Minnesota Twins (11.6% if you include former draft pick cum Tampa Bay Ray Evan Meek ). Scouting Director Mike Radcliff told the Pioneer Press's Phil Miller that “it’s a glass-half-full sort of thing. We’re disappointed to lose players we’ve invested in, but it means we have talent in our organization.” Talent that went unrecognized. Part of what a franchise needs to do is monitoring the market and gauging the interest of other clubs for players that might not be in the organization's long-term plans and work a trade. With holes in the infield and outfield, the Twins could have potentially traded Cameron prior to the Rule 5 draft in 2006 for a similar caliber player that could develop into a major league centerfielder. What one team ignores, another might value. It speaks volumes that we may have internally ignored 3 of the 18 players drafted.

The three that were selected in the major league portion (thankfully none named Yohan Pino) are as follows:

1st Pick (1st player drafted): Rays take yet another Twins pitcher (but immediately trade him to Cubs ). Tampa had a prearranged deal with the Cubs for $150,000 ($100,000 after the $50,000 draft fee) for the Rays to select Lahey then hand him over. "He's got real good sink with a ground ball ratio of almost 3-to-1 and the makings of a pretty good slider," Cubs farm director Oneri Fleita said. "It's amazing—I think he has 178, 179 innings and has less than a hit per inning pitched. That's pretty good for a guy who just got converted. We're excited to see him." In the 20th round of the 2004 amateur draft the Twins selected catcher Timothy Lahey from Princeton. After finishing 2004 in Elizabethton with 84 at-bats and a weak .202/.317/.333 line, the Twins decided to move him from behind the plate and onto the mound (inviting plenty of comparisons to Troy Percival). Lahey threw 25.1 innings with Elizabethton and struckout 30 while saving 15 games in 2005. The following season Lahey was moved to High-A Fort Myers where he pitched in 44 games. Facing 315 batters, Lahey had a 18.1% strikeout rate and a 8.6% walk rate and managed to get hitters to beat the ball into the ground 65% of balls-in-play. Scouts began saying he was throwing a "heavy ball" and was deceptive due to the short-armed, catcher-style motion that Lahey had. Baseball America compared it to that of Keith Foulke's. In 2007, Lahey was escorted to Double-A New Britain where he faced more polished hitters. While his strikeout rate (16.3%) and walkrate (9.6%) remained consistent, he surrendered home runs in 8% of the balls-in-play and his groundball capabilities declined to 53%.

I am convinced that Lahey would not have been able to ascend to the Twins as a closer or even in mop-up duties. There were too many pitching prospects ahead of him. His stock may have escalated due to saves and caught the attention of several organizations. I would assume that there was a sentiment within the Twins organization that Lahey would be expendable. After all, he was not protected prior to this draft. Conversely, they also must have known that he possess some qualities in a pitcher that is highly sought after. Qualities that some teams, like the Cubs, who would be willing to trade a surplus of minor league outfielders for. Wish we had the opportunity to have a swap-meet.

15th Pick (12th player drafted): Mariners take Dickey. The Twins had just "passed" with their 11th overall selection followed by three more passes when Seattle snagged another Twins pitcher. The newly-anointed knuckleballer R.A. Dickey, who the Twins signed to a minor league contract less than a month ago, was drafted by the Mariners. "It's a great opportunity for him [Dickey] because he got a roster spot out of it that he didn't have with us. He goes to their big league camp," Bill Smith told the AP. "We were a little disappointed because we were kind of excited to have him."

The 33-year-old Dickey had spent significant time in the Rangers organization and saw ample duty in both spot-starting and long relief. Dickey threw in over 221 innings with 151 strikeouts with the Rangers in 2003 and 2004. Last season the Brewers used Dickey as a starter for their Triple-A Nashville associate. That is when Dickey discovered the knuck. Facing 707 batters in 2007, Dickey struck out 16.8% of them and issued free-passes to 8.5%. His knuck was effective at getting the groundball on nearly 55% of balls-in-play. Despite the stigma of being over 30 years old Dickey reinvented himself as a knuckleballer coming into the 2007 where he ended up with a 13-6 record (but 10-2 and a 2.52 era after June 1st) in the Pacific Coast League. His final 3.72 era was almost a full earn run under the PCL's average of 4.68.

Even though it is more likely that Dickey will make his way back to the Twins after spring training, USS Mariner speculates what sort of hilarity could ensue after a flame-thrower like Felix Hernandez is replaced with a butterfly throwing reliever like Dickey. Even if Dickey was not selected in the Rule 5 he would have been a dark-horse to break camp with the Twins. Still I was looking forward to watching the knuckleballer at Hammond Field and the Mariners have stole that from me.

(Aside: Great New Yorker article about the lost art of the knuckleball.)

(17th player drafted): Nationals pick up yet another outfielder. In an attempt to have the only 25-man roster made up entirely of outfielders (Dukes, Logan, Kearns, Mo Pena, Langerhas, etc), the Washington Nationals grabbed 25-year-old Garrett Guzman. Baseball America describes him as Orlando Palmerio-ish: an undersized, left-handed fourth outfielder. Nats General Manager Jim Bowden agrees: "We think he can be a fourth outfielder in the big leagues right now. He's a quality kid who hits the ball hard, he goes the other way with it."

In New Britain in 2007, Guzman outperformed his career line (.290/.339/.439) with a .312/.359/.453 season. His 74 ops+ was his best since his 18-year-old rookie season of 326+. In subsequent seasons after his whopping .967 in the Gulf Coast League Guzman's production declined and leveled posting ops+ of 62, 58, 11 and 18 in Low-A, High-A and Double-A. This tells me that he had a gross inflation of production in 2007. His stock could not have been higher. The Twins's system was desperate for outfielders and probably read too much into some of his early statistics but ultimately decided that he might not have the same output as his 2007 season. At 25-years-old and facing Double-A pitching for the second straight year does not scream major league ready. They don't speak too highly of him in Washington neither.

Deflating Detroit Rock City

In 2003, the Detroit Tigers had lost 119 games. Five years later in 2008, 119 wins is a reality.

Mitch Albom, Detroit Free-Press columnist and sob-story novelist, wrote a column following the Cabrera/Willis trade tossing acclimates around but not yet notifying the Motor City citizens to start stockpiling ticker-tape for next November. Jason Stark at ESPN has also stated that the American League pennant goes through Motown as well. Phil Roger's is raving about the deal, in fact, he has already crowned Detroit AL Central champs and the second-best team behind Boston (he currently has the Twins ranked third in the division but ready to fall if Santana or Nathan is dealt). FoxSport's Ken Rosenthal loves them too. Hell, Bud Selig should just have the trophy thing engraved now. Get the discount.

On paper this team looks good. Too good. Insanely good. $130 million a year good. This 2008 squad is reminiscent of the All-Star line-up Homer Simpson's softball team had when playing the annual softball game against the rival power plant and Mr. Burns went out and acquired ringers (not before Smithers had to inform him that his right fielder had been dead for over a hundred and thirty years). Undoubtedly with a roster that included Ozzie Smith, Jose Canseco, Daryl Strawberry, Roger Clemens, etc, etc, it was expected that the team was going to win that softball game. Only the night before the big game -- one by one -- the players started disappearing (Ozzie Smith's ride in the blackhole) or arrest for all the unsolved murders in New York (Steve Sax) or gargantunism (Ken Griffey Jr). These are the sort of events that will need to unfold in order to keep this Tiger lineup at bay. Nothing short of localized global warming, entirely concentrated in the Greater Detroit area will keep this from being the one of the most formidable team ever. That or maybe we just send them all an invite to a "get to know your new teammates" party in some warehouse which we will stock with HGH and steroids. We'll lock them in, call the feds. Baseball players within close proximity to performance enhancing drugs? Case closed.

It is not my nature to be entirely that doom-and-gloom. I for one am not ready to have Metrodome ushers hand me prepunched All-Star ballots for all-Tigers. Always your source for Glass-Is-Half-Empty for your division rivals, I have constructed several talking points that might alleviate this constant chatter that already has Detroit crowned World Series champions for the next infinity years:

1) Renteria and Sheffield are least likely to replicate their career numbers. With injuries and age, these two might not have the opportunity to live up to their projections. At 31, Renteria played in his fewest games (124) since his rookie season (106). His defensive numbers are a tad misleading considering his fielding percentage has not change meanwhile, according to the Hardball Times, his revised-zone-rating has was his lowest last season (.815) since his short-lived Boston endeavor (.805). While the .815 RZR mark would have been good enough for third in the American League, in the National League it was only good enough for 8th. The shortstop crop in the AL is a) shallow and b) forced to defend against one more batter (the dh) who can typically rake (exception: Tyner, Jason). This increased offense in the American League exposed Renteria as a passable shortstop while he was with Boston. Expect him to decline in defense similar to his transition to Boston and put up a line just as similar to his Red Sox days .276/.335/.385 (in a right-handed hitter friendly park, no less!).

Sheffield, meanwhile, is old. In 2008 he will be 39. While he still can pack a punch (25 home runs in 494 at-bats), his final line in his first season with Detriot was much lower than previous seasons in with he accumulated nearly 500 at-bats (.265/.378/.462). Sheffield still has a penchant for drawing walks and taking pitches (4.1 pitches per plate appearance). In 2007, he had an isolated slugging of .321 in May and .270 in June where he hit 16 of his 25 home runs. He faded almost as fast as he started, ending August with a .093 ISOP and September with .062 ISOP. This decline could be attributed to aging, where a player no longer has the wherewithal to last 162 games. When you consider it, spring training beginning in March through September would be a tough stretch for any 39-year-old that is being asked to contribute everyday, even if it is only as a dh. My inclination is that Sheff will have a similar season in 2008 as he did in 2007, only with more games on the DL and fewer home runs due to a overall drop in power later in the season. Curious side note: he was able to tie his second highest amount of stolen bases (22), a mark he established at 29-years-old, nearly a decade prior.

2) Does anyone really believe Todd Jones is a lights-out closer? Whenever Todd Jones was asked to closer out the Twins, I never had that overwhelming feeling of closure as I did when Troy Percival or Mariano Rivera were in their prime. Part of the reason is that he is the most underwhelming closer in baseball today (not named Joe Borowski). Of the 265 batters faced, Jones managed to strike out only 12.5% of them. This strikeout rate is borderline for a major league pitcher, let alone the guy you hand over to protect the game in 9th. Couple the lack of strikeouts with his obscene 8.7% walkrate and the fact that Jones only was able to use his good glove infield on only 45.6% of balls-in-play is not a good definition for the word "lights-out". What this indicates is that Jones has been the recipient of both good luck and a lax definition of a "save". The hard work had been performed by Zumaya or Rodney. Jones was ushered in to not hand over a 3 or 4 run lead, which he only managed to do in 86% of his save opportunities. In 2008, Jones will be without his set-ups in Zumaya and Rodney missed a significant portion of the season with various arm injuries. Word is that the Tigers are looking to sign Latroy Hawkins. Hawkins who was able to induce groundballs 65% of the time last season, will be a disaster minus his Colorado Rockies defense. Pending any trades involving Inge or Marcus Thames for bullpen help, the Tigers have a soft-spot once the starting pitchers are removed from the game.

3) The Tigers seem pretty set on sending Jacque Jones up to the plate three times or more a game. I am not the one to inform Detroit that Jacque is your prototypical free-swinging out machine. In his book, "Fantasyland", Sam Walker used his sports writer credentials to obtain insider information by accessing the players directly in the locker rooms. In one chapter Walker described an encounter with then-Twin Jacque Jones discussing the recent Ron Shandler book. The stats from Shandler's book essentially pegged Jones as a hitter that had incredible luck and was sure to decline in productivity due to his high strikeout rate and batting average on balls-in-play. Jones reviewed Shandler's book with Walker looming over head and was utterly dejected. Following that 2004 season, Shandler was exactly right as Jones regressed from a .304/.333/.464 hitter into a .254/.315/.427 hitter when some of the balls-in-play stopped falling to the turf. After signing with the Cubs, Jones rebounded with a .285/.334/.499 2006 season but saw his power disappeared in 2007, as he finished .285/.335/.400. His home run production decreased sharply as he had been hitting home runs in 3.9% (2004), 3.9% (2005) and 4.6% (2006) of his plate appearance while ending with home runs in 1.0% of his plate appearance last season. This may be triggered by a focus to make better contact. His strikeout rate was the lowest ever in 2007 (14.1%).

Meanwhile, Jones is notoriously inept versus left-handed pitching. If the speculation is true and the Tigers do unload Marcus Thames to compensate for the increased payroll, Jones will certainly be asked to face the league's southpaws. In his career, Jones has managed to put up a Puntoesque .233/.281/.355 line. This makes Jones a prime candidate to bring in your lefty specialist forcing Leyland to use his bench early.

Last of all, I take comfort in knowing that all Twins fans have the scouting report down on Jacque Jones: breaking stuff over the right-handed batters box. He can't hit them, he can't lay off.

4) Magglio Ordonez will not have the same type of year as he did in 2007. While regression seems to be my fall back defense, of all the players in the Tigers line-up Ordonez has to be far and above the most likely candidate to have a regressed season if for no other reason than his 2007 campaign was monstrous. As a 33-year-old, Ordonez put up an MVP-type year with a .363/.434/.595 line. Rediculous for a career .312/.370/.522 hitter. Make no mistake, Ordonez can rake. However, while a very patient hitter (12.3% walkrate in 2007) and a keen batting eye (11.6% strikeout rate in 2007), again Ordonez is another example of a Tiger getting extremely lucky: His batting average of balls in play was .383. That sort of production is bound to decrease (probably back down to his 2006 level of .317, but still...).

The Roar is Back in Motown

Most of the time when a transaction happens in the AL Central I try to remain neutral (as best that a Twins blogger can) and weigh the pros and cons. This recent nugget out of Nashville, however, makes it difficult to keep objective.

The Tigers are on a mission -- though it might be to completely surrender the farm system before the snow is gone. After acquiring Edgar Renteria for three top prospects, General Manager Dave Dombrowski has remained unsatisfied and active in Nashville: Peter Gammons is reporting that the Marlins have agreed to send Detroit Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for stud prospects centerfielder Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller, backup catcher Mike Rebalo and three other minor leagues (one being the 24-year-old right-handed Eulogio de la Cruz, who had hit 100 mph on the radar gun).

I had previous opined at the curious nature of how Dombrowski was now functioning. At the helm of the Marlins, Dombrowski constructed a championship team through high-priced free agents (Kevin Brown, Gary Sheffield) and developed prospects within the farm system (Renteria), then traded them for various prospects which became the core of the 2003 World Series team. He now seems to be operating in the inverse manner: trading valuable prospects for short-term players in a win-now mentality. Dombrowski shows quite the contrast to the tandem of Billy Smith/Terry Ryan (or Shapiro or Moore for that matter). With Curtis Granderson manning centerfield and a farm system bursting with top-flight outfield prospects and coveted arms, Dombrowski cashed in his two top centerfield prospects surplus (Gorkys Hernandez and Cameron Maybin) and three of his top pitching prospects (Humberto Sanchez, Jairs Jurrijins and Andrew Miller) for immediate dividends (Sheffield, Renteria, Cabrera and Willis). Obviously both Cabrera and Willis have the capabilities of remaining in the Motor City both because of youth and a generous budget (Tigers owner Mike Illich has the money as evident by the Magglio Ordenez and Ivan Rodriguez contracts) but mortgaging the farm for the Renterias and Sheffields will surely hurt the franchise.

The 2008 Tigers line-up will be one of the best in the entire American League:

player	pos	career line
1. Curtis Granderson	-- cf --	.280/.343/.493 (116 ops+)
2. Placido Polanco	-- 2b --	.305/.350/.416 (99 ops+)
3. Guillen	-- 1b --	.290/.358/.450 (113 ops+)
4. Gary Sheffield	-- dh --	.296/.397/.522 (143 ops+)
5. Cabrera	-- 3b --	.313/.388/.542 (143 ops+)
6. Magglio Ordonez	-- rf --	.312/.370/.522 (129 ops+)
7. Renteria	-- ss --	.291/.349/.407 (97 ops+)
8. Marcus Thames/Jacque Jones	-- lf --	.241/.306/.492 (105 ops+)/.280/.329/.455 (100 ops+)
8. Ivan Rodriguez	-- c --	.303/.340/.479 (111 ops+)

*A 117 ops+ average lineup

Clearly Detriot has gotten better. Many scouts have reported that Cabrera was the trade target more highly-coveted this offseason than Johan Santana. Dontrelle Willis is on a short list of good left-handed starters not named Santana or Sabathia. With Renteria displacing Carlos Guillen at short, shifting Guillen to first where Sean Casey has been ousted, Detriot has added an all-star at third moving Inge to a utility role or potential trade bait to solidify the bullpen and now has Willis to complement Bonderman, Verlander, Rogers and Robertson. Renteria's 18 win shares in 2007 at short in Atlanta will replace the 19 provided by Guillen. This small loss in production is greatly offset by retaining Guillen as a first baseman at the cost of Sean Casey's 9 win shares. Cabrera's 30 win shares trumps Inge's 13 win shares. Meanwhile Willis could provide the rotation with a 4-win share upgrade over Andrew Miller.

All things being equal, the 2008 Detriot Tigers will improve by 30 win shares. On paper and in principle, this division got that much better.

AL Central Update

Minnesota Twins

• In all of the big-name trade hoopla, the minor manuvers the front office completed were vastly overshadowed. La Velle glazed over the report of three minor league signings: c Eli Whiteside, 1b/of Randy Ruiz, 1b Howie Clark and 1b/of Jon Knott. Of the four, Knott appears to have the highest pedigree. Only sampling major league pitching with the Padres and the Orioles, Knott, a non-drafted free agent from Mississippi State, has hit .270/.354/.515 in 477 Triple-A games. While prone to striking out (23.5% strikeout rate in 2007 Norfolk), Knott also has patience (14.1% walkrate in 2007), decent power (3.2% HR-rate) and can hit left-handed pitching. In 2006, Knott manhandled PCL left-handed pitching at a .331/.405/.646 clip in 127 at-bats. This isn't to say that Knott will break camp with the big club, however, he is a good offensive insurance policy in Rochester if needed in the corner outfield, dh or pitch-hitting as opposed to forcing Garrett Jones into a corner outfielder position that he is not equipped to man.

• Brian Bass was resigned after the Twins initially granted him free agency. Drafted by the Royals out of high school in Alabama, Bass made his debut in rookie ball as an 18-year-old. As a Royals prospect, Bass spent the next three season bouncing between A and high. In 2004, the then 22-year-old Bass got 9 starts in Double-A Whicita. His performance left something to be desired: facing 180 batters, Bass walked more than he struckout. The Royals were still high on him despite his nagging injuries and frequent dead-arm spells. After splitting time between Double-A Whicita and Triple-A Omaha with mixed results, the Twins picked up Bass with the intention of using him in the bullpen. In 37 games last year, Bass made 10 starts for the Red Wings. Against 424 batters faced, Bass struck out 18.9% of them and walked only 5.2%, a sharp contrast from his days within the Royals organization when he had the weapons but lacked the control. Even more impressive was his ability to produce groundballs (57% GB rate). Bass made 9 starts for the Tigres de Aragua and continued where his Rochester season left off by walking 2 of the 92 batters he faced (2.2%) and striking out 16 of the 92 (17.2%). Of the balls put in play, 68% of them were on the ground. Rotoworld's analysis is that Bass could made a good swingman out of the Twins bullpen and judging from his 2007 numbers, that might be a good fit.

Chicago White Sox

• The ChiSox are admittingly out of the Aaron Rowand sweepstakes. Apparently they aren't even in the same "area code" when it comes to a price. I don't know what this spells for the Twins who are reportedly discussing at least internally Rowand as an option. Interestingly ignorant blurb at the bottom of the article: "Williams could try to use third baseman Joe Crede to get a deal done with the Rockies at the winter meetings next week." Apparently Joe Cowley has never heard of either Garrett Atkins nor Ian Stewert.
• Phil Rogers announces that the Sox have left Fernando Hernandez Jr. off of their 40-man roster despite a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League surrendering five hits in 12 2/3 innings of scoreless ball. The Sox front office felt that Hernandez's high-80s fastball and assortment of breaking pitches were not going to get major league batters out. Traditionally undersized for a major league pitcher (5' 11"), the 23-year-old Hernandez had a good 2007 in Double-A Birmingham tossing 85.1 innings with a 24.1% strikeout ratio, a low 6.6% base-on-balls ratio and got batters to beat the ball into the ground 50% of balls-in-play. While it is a reach, a team desparate for bullpen help and reliance on statistics rather than radar guns might take a flyer out on Hernandez in the Rule 5 draft. It is a stretch since he is nearly 24-years-old and has only played Double-A but his statistics suggest that he does have the makeup of a pitcher. The Twins obviously do not need the extra arm but I wouldn't be surprised to see someone draft Hernandez Jr.

Detroit Tigers

• Absent Zumaya for the 2008 season, the Tigers are now looking at bringing in LaTroy Hawkins to help bolster the bullpen and according to the Detroit Free-Press, the feeling is mutual. Larry Reynolds, Hawkins's agent, has suggested that Hawk is strongly interested in returning to the AL Central and playing along side former Twins teammate and recent Tiger Jacque Jones. After bouncing around for several seasons between the Cubs, Giants, Orioles and Rockies, Hawkins finally found success in Colorado. While his strikeouts are down and his walkrate up, Hawkins thrived in the National League by keeping the ball down and getting batters to hit groundballs (65% of balls in play) to the best fielding infield in the National League in 2007. The Rockies bought out his 2008 option for $250,000. The market for relievers is crazy this offseason (see: Romero, JC) and Hawkins is figuring to cash in for a multi-year deal at a minimum of $7 million.
• The Tigers are hoping Jim Leyland's managerial approach will help Jacque Jones reestablish himself as a consistant everyday player. Personally, I think laying off the pitch over the right-handed batters box would be an excellent starting point to making Jones more consistant.

Kansas City Royals

• The Royals lost Wes Bankston to the Oakland A's after designating him for assignment attempting to guide him through the waivers in order to place him in Triple-A Omaha. Kansas City had claimed Bankston from Tampa on September 21st this past season. While in the Rays organization, Bankston had a great start hitting 18 home runs with a .301/.343/.541 line in 279 at-bats. After spending the next two seasons in low-A, Bankston was moved along to AA in 2005 as a 21-year-old. The follow season, Bankston split the season between AA and AAA. In 2007, Bankston spent his first full season in AAA and was a disappointment. His .238/.282/.418 line at Durham was a significant variation from his career line of .278/.343/.465. With Carlos Pena entrenched at 1b (and several other players that may be shifted to 1b due to nagging injuries), the Rays outrighted him. Now with the Royals, the 24-year-old Bankston wound up finding himself blocked at first base by Ryan Shealy, Billy Butler and Justin Huber. With no real desire to protect him, Royals GM Dayton Moore exposed him to the waiver wire. Oakland, always vilgilant about finding a bargain, have acquired a young player who maybe coming off of a down year rather than an indication of peaking and still has enough power and the ability to get on base to break into the majors under the right circumstances.

Replacing Silva (or Adaptation)

Billy Smith had stated in early November that resigning Silva was a priority for the organization. He told La Velle at the Star Tribune that Silva "has been a good player for us, he's a good person in the clubhouse and a good member of this team" At that time I truly believed that the Twins were attempting to do whatever was necessary to bring Carlos back. Under the Terry Ryan Regime, pitching prospects were kept under the stairs in farm system. Only when the moons aligned (or Radke ailing) would Ryan release a prospect into the rotation. Lack of confidence in their own prospects was still evident in Ryan's last season as GM with the offseason signings of Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz. Ryan had seemingly created a front office policy that the organization used as a guiding principle based on inserting major league experience into the rotation in the stead of homegrown talent.

Since that article was published there has been little report of progress of resigning Silva. The Twins were giving the media lip service and had no real intention of making an offer. In the wake of the Twins making a major trade in which top pitching prospect Matt Garza was packaged, it now appears that with the changing of the guard the front office is no longer abiding by the same formula when it comes to the same pitching prospects. As it stands today, it is a forgone conclusion that Silva will not be on the 2008 squad and that (barring any more trades) the Twins will be introducing a 5th pitcher that has little to no major league experience. Had the Twins had one more option year on Silva for a reasonable contract, I would have preferred to have him return to allow for additional seasoning in the minors by some of the 5th starter candidates (Blackburn, Duensing ). Silva's "market value" is unreasonable and could easily replaced from within. As suggested previously, the Twins would stand to benefit from avoiding sinking long-term money into Carlos Silva and let organization like the Royals (who are very interested ) tangle themselves in a contractual folly.

If the world stopped spinning today, eliminating the possibility of a Santana trade and resumed when pitchers and catchers reported, the Twins rotation beginning in spring training would be:

(1) Johan Santana

(2) Scott Baker

(3) Francisco Liriano (pending full recovery)

(4) Boof Bonser

(5) Open

So what do we have to replace (and hopefully improve) when it comes to Carlos Silva? Using Dave Cameron's guideline for evaluating pitching talent, we find that Silva is incredible at finding the strike zone (his walk-rate is nearly non-existent), however he is deficient is several statistical categories, most notably lack of strikeouts (which indicate high contact rate from the batters) and the fallacy that Silva is an extreme groundball pitcher when in reality, he is above-average (Fausto Carmona is an extreme groundball pitcher nearing 60%).

Silva	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2005	749	9.2%	1.2%	49.2%
2006	811	8.6%	3.9%	43.6%
2007	848	10.5%	4.2%	47.5%

A rotation minus Silva leaves the door open for one of four pitchers: Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn or Brian Duensing. Applying the same standard of evaluation to the potential 5th starters, we find that the Twins have the depth to adequately replace Silva without having to worry about looking on the free agent market or from outside organizations.

Slowey is most likely the favorite to enter the rotation after spending 66.2 innings and 11 starts with the Twins in 2007. His minor league track record is nearly impeccable. In 353.2 minor league innings, Slowey has struck out 342 and walked 48.

Slowey	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2006 (AA)	242	21.5%	5.2%	40%
2007 (AAA)	523	20.5%	3.4%	43%
2007 (MLB)	297	15.8%	3.7%	30%

Slowey shares the attribute that has made Silva appealing to the Twins, which is also constantly around the strike zone. This is also a trait that Slowey will have to manage better in his second attempt in the majors considering in his brief stint with the Twins he surrendered home runs to 5.3% of batters faced. It is obvious through his strikeout rate that he has the stuff to make bats miss and with the absence of Garza it would appear that the front office will allow him slack on his learning curve

Glen Perkins, who has spent the past two season with the parent club as a left-handed out of the pen, has an equal amount of major league promise. In 334.1 innings in the Twins farm system, Perkins has struck out 353 and walked 124. After conquering the Big Ten, this former Gopher had climbed from 2004 as a 21-year-old rookie ball pitcher to a 23-year-old in 2006 who was sampling the majors for the first time.

Perkins	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2005 (AA)	346	19.4%	10.1%	x
2006 (AA)	503	26.0%	8.9%	38%
2007 (MLB)	115	17.4%	10.4%	42%

Injuries sidelined Perkins last season after he started in Triple-A and moved into the bullpen with the Twins. Like Slowey, Perkins can make batters miss. His walk-rate, however, is borderline. Cameron writes that anything over 11% is a problem and Perkins is certainly flirting with it but the sample size is relatively small to make a concluding judgement on his major league performance. The Twins will most likely not use Perkins in the rotation unless (a) he has a strong spring training, (b) Liriano is not fully healed from surgery or (c) Santana is traded. Dennys Reyes is the lone reliable lefty in the bullpen and the Twins might be considering leaving Perkins there in 2008 to complement Reyes.

When Dave Cameron at the USS Mariner was bemoaning Silva as a free agent landmine, he mentioned that the Twins could easily replace him with extreme groundball-inducer Nick Blackburn. Typically Blackburn's contract had resulted in groundballs 50% of the time. In his limited 11.2 inning exposure with the Twins in 2007, the 25-year-old righty managed to get 40% of the contact to be into the ground.

Blackburn	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2005 (A+)	384	14.3%	4.2%	x
2005 (AA)	188	14.4%	5.3%	x
2006 (AA)	565	14.3%	6.5%	48%
2007 (AA)	160	11.3%	4.4%	53%
2007 (AAA)	433	13.2%	2.8%	52%

While his ability to make batter's miss is low - below average - he will certainly drop a few more percentages once in the majors too. Blackburn is throwing the ball over the plate and is replicating Silva's inordinately low walk-rate. In a longer deployment in Triple-A, Blackburn managed to reduce his walks by half and his groundball rate was about 50% in 2007 at both Double-A and Triple-A. Blackburn is unlikely to begin the season in the rotation, in order to allow for more seasoning in the farm system but it is clear that Blackburn is the heir-apparent to being the miracle groundball inducer that some thought Silva was.

The last candidate for the 5th spot is Brian Duensing. The 24-year-old lefty made a fast ascension in the organization and reaffirmed his capabilities with a strong winter with Team USA. In 2006, he ate up three levels of ball (A, A+ and AA). In 2007 he chewed through two more (AA and AAA).

Duensing	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2006 (A)	291	18.9%	4.8%	54%
2006 (A+)	170	19.4%	4.7%	49%
2006 (AA)	211	14.2%	8.5%	55%
2007 (AA)	206	18.4%	3.4%	44%
2007 (AAA)	483	17.8%	6.2%	52%

Judging from these numbers, it could be argued that Duensing has the most potential out of the five. While lacking any experience higher than Triple-A, Duensing had adapted quite will in his first year, with a high-strikeout rate of 17.8% and a slightly higher than average walk rate (6.2%) and his groundball-rate suggests that he is able to keep the hitters off-balanced.

If the shift in policy - from protecting prospects to utilizing them - includes not only trading some prospects but also giving them innings over overpriced veteran starter (Silva), the Twins are in a very good position in the AL Central. Any of these five are capable of replacing the production that Silva could offer. My assumption is that Kevin Slowey will have every opportunity to enter Silva's role in 2008 but with four other strong candidates behind him, it would be in Slowey's best interested to emerge as a reliable starter otherwise the Twins have numerous options to replace him. What is even more encouraging is the depth that the Twins have behind these four as well: Anthony Swarzak, Yohan Pino , Jeff Manship, Tyler Robertson, et al.