The Roar is Back in Motown

Most of the time when a transaction happens in the AL Central I try to remain neutral (as best that a Twins blogger can) and weigh the pros and cons. This recent nugget out of Nashville, however, makes it difficult to keep objective.

The Tigers are on a mission -- though it might be to completely surrender the farm system before the snow is gone. After acquiring Edgar Renteria for three top prospects, General Manager Dave Dombrowski has remained unsatisfied and active in Nashville: Peter Gammons is reporting that the Marlins have agreed to send Detroit Miguel Cabrera and Dontrelle Willis for stud prospects centerfielder Cameron Maybin and Andrew Miller, backup catcher Mike Rebalo and three other minor leagues (one being the 24-year-old right-handed Eulogio de la Cruz, who had hit 100 mph on the radar gun).

I had previous opined at the curious nature of how Dombrowski was now functioning. At the helm of the Marlins, Dombrowski constructed a championship team through high-priced free agents (Kevin Brown, Gary Sheffield) and developed prospects within the farm system (Renteria), then traded them for various prospects which became the core of the 2003 World Series team. He now seems to be operating in the inverse manner: trading valuable prospects for short-term players in a win-now mentality. Dombrowski shows quite the contrast to the tandem of Billy Smith/Terry Ryan (or Shapiro or Moore for that matter). With Curtis Granderson manning centerfield and a farm system bursting with top-flight outfield prospects and coveted arms, Dombrowski cashed in his two top centerfield prospects surplus (Gorkys Hernandez and Cameron Maybin) and three of his top pitching prospects (Humberto Sanchez, Jairs Jurrijins and Andrew Miller) for immediate dividends (Sheffield, Renteria, Cabrera and Willis). Obviously both Cabrera and Willis have the capabilities of remaining in the Motor City both because of youth and a generous budget (Tigers owner Mike Illich has the money as evident by the Magglio Ordenez and Ivan Rodriguez contracts) but mortgaging the farm for the Renterias and Sheffields will surely hurt the franchise.

The 2008 Tigers line-up will be one of the best in the entire American League:

player	pos	career line
1. Curtis Granderson	-- cf --	.280/.343/.493 (116 ops+)
2. Placido Polanco	-- 2b --	.305/.350/.416 (99 ops+)
3. Guillen	-- 1b --	.290/.358/.450 (113 ops+)
4. Gary Sheffield	-- dh --	.296/.397/.522 (143 ops+)
5. Cabrera	-- 3b --	.313/.388/.542 (143 ops+)
6. Magglio Ordonez	-- rf --	.312/.370/.522 (129 ops+)
7. Renteria	-- ss --	.291/.349/.407 (97 ops+)
8. Marcus Thames/Jacque Jones	-- lf --	.241/.306/.492 (105 ops+)/.280/.329/.455 (100 ops+)
8. Ivan Rodriguez	-- c --	.303/.340/.479 (111 ops+)

*A 117 ops+ average lineup

Clearly Detriot has gotten better. Many scouts have reported that Cabrera was the trade target more highly-coveted this offseason than Johan Santana. Dontrelle Willis is on a short list of good left-handed starters not named Santana or Sabathia. With Renteria displacing Carlos Guillen at short, shifting Guillen to first where Sean Casey has been ousted, Detriot has added an all-star at third moving Inge to a utility role or potential trade bait to solidify the bullpen and now has Willis to complement Bonderman, Verlander, Rogers and Robertson. Renteria's 18 win shares in 2007 at short in Atlanta will replace the 19 provided by Guillen. This small loss in production is greatly offset by retaining Guillen as a first baseman at the cost of Sean Casey's 9 win shares. Cabrera's 30 win shares trumps Inge's 13 win shares. Meanwhile Willis could provide the rotation with a 4-win share upgrade over Andrew Miller.

All things being equal, the 2008 Detriot Tigers will improve by 30 win shares. On paper and in principle, this division got that much better.

AL Central Update

Minnesota Twins

• In all of the big-name trade hoopla, the minor manuvers the front office completed were vastly overshadowed. La Velle glazed over the report of three minor league signings: c Eli Whiteside, 1b/of Randy Ruiz, 1b Howie Clark and 1b/of Jon Knott. Of the four, Knott appears to have the highest pedigree. Only sampling major league pitching with the Padres and the Orioles, Knott, a non-drafted free agent from Mississippi State, has hit .270/.354/.515 in 477 Triple-A games. While prone to striking out (23.5% strikeout rate in 2007 Norfolk), Knott also has patience (14.1% walkrate in 2007), decent power (3.2% HR-rate) and can hit left-handed pitching. In 2006, Knott manhandled PCL left-handed pitching at a .331/.405/.646 clip in 127 at-bats. This isn't to say that Knott will break camp with the big club, however, he is a good offensive insurance policy in Rochester if needed in the corner outfield, dh or pitch-hitting as opposed to forcing Garrett Jones into a corner outfielder position that he is not equipped to man.

• Brian Bass was resigned after the Twins initially granted him free agency. Drafted by the Royals out of high school in Alabama, Bass made his debut in rookie ball as an 18-year-old. As a Royals prospect, Bass spent the next three season bouncing between A and high. In 2004, the then 22-year-old Bass got 9 starts in Double-A Whicita. His performance left something to be desired: facing 180 batters, Bass walked more than he struckout. The Royals were still high on him despite his nagging injuries and frequent dead-arm spells. After splitting time between Double-A Whicita and Triple-A Omaha with mixed results, the Twins picked up Bass with the intention of using him in the bullpen. In 37 games last year, Bass made 10 starts for the Red Wings. Against 424 batters faced, Bass struck out 18.9% of them and walked only 5.2%, a sharp contrast from his days within the Royals organization when he had the weapons but lacked the control. Even more impressive was his ability to produce groundballs (57% GB rate). Bass made 9 starts for the Tigres de Aragua and continued where his Rochester season left off by walking 2 of the 92 batters he faced (2.2%) and striking out 16 of the 92 (17.2%). Of the balls put in play, 68% of them were on the ground. Rotoworld's analysis is that Bass could made a good swingman out of the Twins bullpen and judging from his 2007 numbers, that might be a good fit.

Chicago White Sox

• The ChiSox are admittingly out of the Aaron Rowand sweepstakes. Apparently they aren't even in the same "area code" when it comes to a price. I don't know what this spells for the Twins who are reportedly discussing at least internally Rowand as an option. Interestingly ignorant blurb at the bottom of the article: "Williams could try to use third baseman Joe Crede to get a deal done with the Rockies at the winter meetings next week." Apparently Joe Cowley has never heard of either Garrett Atkins nor Ian Stewert.
• Phil Rogers announces that the Sox have left Fernando Hernandez Jr. off of their 40-man roster despite a strong showing in the Arizona Fall League surrendering five hits in 12 2/3 innings of scoreless ball. The Sox front office felt that Hernandez's high-80s fastball and assortment of breaking pitches were not going to get major league batters out. Traditionally undersized for a major league pitcher (5' 11"), the 23-year-old Hernandez had a good 2007 in Double-A Birmingham tossing 85.1 innings with a 24.1% strikeout ratio, a low 6.6% base-on-balls ratio and got batters to beat the ball into the ground 50% of balls-in-play. While it is a reach, a team desparate for bullpen help and reliance on statistics rather than radar guns might take a flyer out on Hernandez in the Rule 5 draft. It is a stretch since he is nearly 24-years-old and has only played Double-A but his statistics suggest that he does have the makeup of a pitcher. The Twins obviously do not need the extra arm but I wouldn't be surprised to see someone draft Hernandez Jr.

Detroit Tigers

• Absent Zumaya for the 2008 season, the Tigers are now looking at bringing in LaTroy Hawkins to help bolster the bullpen and according to the Detroit Free-Press, the feeling is mutual. Larry Reynolds, Hawkins's agent, has suggested that Hawk is strongly interested in returning to the AL Central and playing along side former Twins teammate and recent Tiger Jacque Jones. After bouncing around for several seasons between the Cubs, Giants, Orioles and Rockies, Hawkins finally found success in Colorado. While his strikeouts are down and his walkrate up, Hawkins thrived in the National League by keeping the ball down and getting batters to hit groundballs (65% of balls in play) to the best fielding infield in the National League in 2007. The Rockies bought out his 2008 option for $250,000. The market for relievers is crazy this offseason (see: Romero, JC) and Hawkins is figuring to cash in for a multi-year deal at a minimum of $7 million.
• The Tigers are hoping Jim Leyland's managerial approach will help Jacque Jones reestablish himself as a consistant everyday player. Personally, I think laying off the pitch over the right-handed batters box would be an excellent starting point to making Jones more consistant.

Kansas City Royals

• The Royals lost Wes Bankston to the Oakland A's after designating him for assignment attempting to guide him through the waivers in order to place him in Triple-A Omaha. Kansas City had claimed Bankston from Tampa on September 21st this past season. While in the Rays organization, Bankston had a great start hitting 18 home runs with a .301/.343/.541 line in 279 at-bats. After spending the next two seasons in low-A, Bankston was moved along to AA in 2005 as a 21-year-old. The follow season, Bankston split the season between AA and AAA. In 2007, Bankston spent his first full season in AAA and was a disappointment. His .238/.282/.418 line at Durham was a significant variation from his career line of .278/.343/.465. With Carlos Pena entrenched at 1b (and several other players that may be shifted to 1b due to nagging injuries), the Rays outrighted him. Now with the Royals, the 24-year-old Bankston wound up finding himself blocked at first base by Ryan Shealy, Billy Butler and Justin Huber. With no real desire to protect him, Royals GM Dayton Moore exposed him to the waiver wire. Oakland, always vilgilant about finding a bargain, have acquired a young player who maybe coming off of a down year rather than an indication of peaking and still has enough power and the ability to get on base to break into the majors under the right circumstances.

Replacing Silva (or Adaptation)

Billy Smith had stated in early November that resigning Silva was a priority for the organization. He told La Velle at the Star Tribune that Silva "has been a good player for us, he's a good person in the clubhouse and a good member of this team" At that time I truly believed that the Twins were attempting to do whatever was necessary to bring Carlos back. Under the Terry Ryan Regime, pitching prospects were kept under the stairs in farm system. Only when the moons aligned (or Radke ailing) would Ryan release a prospect into the rotation. Lack of confidence in their own prospects was still evident in Ryan's last season as GM with the offseason signings of Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz. Ryan had seemingly created a front office policy that the organization used as a guiding principle based on inserting major league experience into the rotation in the stead of homegrown talent.

Since that article was published there has been little report of progress of resigning Silva. The Twins were giving the media lip service and had no real intention of making an offer. In the wake of the Twins making a major trade in which top pitching prospect Matt Garza was packaged, it now appears that with the changing of the guard the front office is no longer abiding by the same formula when it comes to the same pitching prospects. As it stands today, it is a forgone conclusion that Silva will not be on the 2008 squad and that (barring any more trades) the Twins will be introducing a 5th pitcher that has little to no major league experience. Had the Twins had one more option year on Silva for a reasonable contract, I would have preferred to have him return to allow for additional seasoning in the minors by some of the 5th starter candidates (Blackburn, Duensing ). Silva's "market value" is unreasonable and could easily replaced from within. As suggested previously, the Twins would stand to benefit from avoiding sinking long-term money into Carlos Silva and let organization like the Royals (who are very interested ) tangle themselves in a contractual folly.

If the world stopped spinning today, eliminating the possibility of a Santana trade and resumed when pitchers and catchers reported, the Twins rotation beginning in spring training would be:

(1) Johan Santana

(2) Scott Baker

(3) Francisco Liriano (pending full recovery)

(4) Boof Bonser

(5) Open

So what do we have to replace (and hopefully improve) when it comes to Carlos Silva? Using Dave Cameron's guideline for evaluating pitching talent, we find that Silva is incredible at finding the strike zone (his walk-rate is nearly non-existent), however he is deficient is several statistical categories, most notably lack of strikeouts (which indicate high contact rate from the batters) and the fallacy that Silva is an extreme groundball pitcher when in reality, he is above-average (Fausto Carmona is an extreme groundball pitcher nearing 60%).

Silva	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2005	749	9.2%	1.2%	49.2%
2006	811	8.6%	3.9%	43.6%
2007	848	10.5%	4.2%	47.5%

A rotation minus Silva leaves the door open for one of four pitchers: Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn or Brian Duensing. Applying the same standard of evaluation to the potential 5th starters, we find that the Twins have the depth to adequately replace Silva without having to worry about looking on the free agent market or from outside organizations.

Slowey is most likely the favorite to enter the rotation after spending 66.2 innings and 11 starts with the Twins in 2007. His minor league track record is nearly impeccable. In 353.2 minor league innings, Slowey has struck out 342 and walked 48.

Slowey	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2006 (AA)	242	21.5%	5.2%	40%
2007 (AAA)	523	20.5%	3.4%	43%
2007 (MLB)	297	15.8%	3.7%	30%

Slowey shares the attribute that has made Silva appealing to the Twins, which is also constantly around the strike zone. This is also a trait that Slowey will have to manage better in his second attempt in the majors considering in his brief stint with the Twins he surrendered home runs to 5.3% of batters faced. It is obvious through his strikeout rate that he has the stuff to make bats miss and with the absence of Garza it would appear that the front office will allow him slack on his learning curve

Glen Perkins, who has spent the past two season with the parent club as a left-handed out of the pen, has an equal amount of major league promise. In 334.1 innings in the Twins farm system, Perkins has struck out 353 and walked 124. After conquering the Big Ten, this former Gopher had climbed from 2004 as a 21-year-old rookie ball pitcher to a 23-year-old in 2006 who was sampling the majors for the first time.

Perkins	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2005 (AA)	346	19.4%	10.1%	x
2006 (AA)	503	26.0%	8.9%	38%
2007 (MLB)	115	17.4%	10.4%	42%

Injuries sidelined Perkins last season after he started in Triple-A and moved into the bullpen with the Twins. Like Slowey, Perkins can make batters miss. His walk-rate, however, is borderline. Cameron writes that anything over 11% is a problem and Perkins is certainly flirting with it but the sample size is relatively small to make a concluding judgement on his major league performance. The Twins will most likely not use Perkins in the rotation unless (a) he has a strong spring training, (b) Liriano is not fully healed from surgery or (c) Santana is traded. Dennys Reyes is the lone reliable lefty in the bullpen and the Twins might be considering leaving Perkins there in 2008 to complement Reyes.

When Dave Cameron at the USS Mariner was bemoaning Silva as a free agent landmine, he mentioned that the Twins could easily replace him with extreme groundball-inducer Nick Blackburn. Typically Blackburn's contract had resulted in groundballs 50% of the time. In his limited 11.2 inning exposure with the Twins in 2007, the 25-year-old righty managed to get 40% of the contact to be into the ground.

Blackburn	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2005 (A+)	384	14.3%	4.2%	x
2005 (AA)	188	14.4%	5.3%	x
2006 (AA)	565	14.3%	6.5%	48%
2007 (AA)	160	11.3%	4.4%	53%
2007 (AAA)	433	13.2%	2.8%	52%

While his ability to make batter's miss is low - below average - he will certainly drop a few more percentages once in the majors too. Blackburn is throwing the ball over the plate and is replicating Silva's inordinately low walk-rate. In a longer deployment in Triple-A, Blackburn managed to reduce his walks by half and his groundball rate was about 50% in 2007 at both Double-A and Triple-A. Blackburn is unlikely to begin the season in the rotation, in order to allow for more seasoning in the farm system but it is clear that Blackburn is the heir-apparent to being the miracle groundball inducer that some thought Silva was.

The last candidate for the 5th spot is Brian Duensing. The 24-year-old lefty made a fast ascension in the organization and reaffirmed his capabilities with a strong winter with Team USA. In 2006, he ate up three levels of ball (A, A+ and AA). In 2007 he chewed through two more (AA and AAA).

Duensing	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2006 (A)	291	18.9%	4.8%	54%
2006 (A+)	170	19.4%	4.7%	49%
2006 (AA)	211	14.2%	8.5%	55%
2007 (AA)	206	18.4%	3.4%	44%
2007 (AAA)	483	17.8%	6.2%	52%

Judging from these numbers, it could be argued that Duensing has the most potential out of the five. While lacking any experience higher than Triple-A, Duensing had adapted quite will in his first year, with a high-strikeout rate of 17.8% and a slightly higher than average walk rate (6.2%) and his groundball-rate suggests that he is able to keep the hitters off-balanced.

If the shift in policy - from protecting prospects to utilizing them - includes not only trading some prospects but also giving them innings over overpriced veteran starter (Silva), the Twins are in a very good position in the AL Central. Any of these five are capable of replacing the production that Silva could offer. My assumption is that Kevin Slowey will have every opportunity to enter Silva's role in 2008 but with four other strong candidates behind him, it would be in Slowey's best interested to emerge as a reliable starter otherwise the Twins have numerous options to replace him. What is even more encouraging is the depth that the Twins have behind these four as well: Anthony Swarzak, Yohan Pino , Jeff Manship, Tyler Robertson, et al.

Trade Confirmed

• La Velle confirmed a recent trade rumor which is now official that the Twins have acquired Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and prospect Jason Pridie from the Tampa Bay Rays for Garza, Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan (ESPN's take here). As I have stated earlier I have no problem with the Twins trading Garza for Young but believed the Twins would have had to add to the package to substantiate this offer. Young seems to outweight Garza in value with the upside. I think Young will have the better chance of performing higher than his ceiling potential than Garza does.

• I think Bartlett for Harris is a relatively straight-up trade. Harris has a little less experienced than Bartlett at the major league level and has bounced around in several organization (Cubs, Expos, Reds, Nationals, Rays) before having a solid season last year with the Rays (.286/.343/.434, 12 HRs). Harris's numbers have fluctuated over the years and will make less contact than Bartlett but he can hit for more power than Bartlett can (a .148 vs. a .098 ISOP). Harris, however, is more of a second-baseman than a shortstop. While Bartlett made 13 errors in 2007 in 138 games as the Twins shortstop, Harris made 11 in 87 games. Verdict: Harris is a more potent bat, but Bartlett had a better glove and better contact hitter. Hopefully the Twins have intentions of moving Harris to third or second. Maybe the Twins cleared the roster spot for a bigger fish moving to shortstop...
  

• The third members of the trade are interesting. Jason Pridie was a Twins Rule 5 draft pick last year. The 24-year-old centerfielder had a good season split between Double-A and Triple-A. In 275 plate appearances for the Durham Bulls, Pridie had and isolated slugging percentage of .221 - a home run every 3.6% of his plate appearances. While still really nubile in the Twins farm system, I believe with the potential that Morlan has he could have been packaged in a better trade. Earlier rumors had Juan Rincon attached (and judging from the Rays previous trades for Houston's Dan Wheeler, it was plausible ).

• It would have been been a terrific trade had the Twins gotten Young, Harris and Pridie for Garza, Bartlett and Rincon. Unfortunately the Twins had to surrender one of their better bullpen prospects.

• Regardless, I think the GM Smitty has improve this team in ways that Terry Ryan would dare not dream. Smitty has signified that this new regime will not be after to make moves. I am more convinced than ever that both Santana AND Nathan could be traded this offseason. On the FAN, Mark Rosen believed it was quite a gamble for the Twins front office to move major league experienced pitching without the knowledge that Liriano will be 100% by opening day. Then again, Smitty might be ready to add more MLB ready pitching in the forecasted Santana/Nathan trades. The Twins are, however, still deficient in the thirdbase/centerfielder positions. However, from what I know about what planning goes on in the front office, moves are not made simply to shift attention from one area and away from the other. This move might also have players repackaged into other trades before the offseason is over.

Erasing Silva: (Or Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)

Carlos Silva is poised for a pay increase this offseason, upwards of $9 million a season, because of his ability to amass innings. There is basic baseball theory in which Silva's forthcoming payday is predicated upon. It is the idea that if your starting pitching can provide six-plus innings an outing, your bullpen will be considerably fresh during the back-end of a three or four game series. General Managers have allocated a significant portion of their pitching staff to players that have at certain points in their career have proven they can meet or exceed two hundred innings in a given season. The Milwaukee Brewers signed Jeff Suppan to a 4 yr/$42 million dollar contract based upon his perceived durability. The theory certainly has teeth. After all, if your bullpen cannot be trusted with a lead, a short-term fix would be to sign a pitcher that can throw 50+ more innings per season. The basis for Silva's enlarged paycheck revolves are three elements: 1) he throws a lot of innings, 2) his walk-rate is minuscule and 3) he induces groundballs with his sinker.

Are these three reasons enough to commit $50 million and 5-years?

To answer that question we have to address the aforementioned three elements and prove why those elements are not rationale enough to resign Silva. Fortunately for me, the wheel does not have to be reinvented as Dave Cameron at the USS Mariner has already assembled a guide to Evaluating Pitching Talent. In the chart below, are Silva's critical pitching statistical categories the past three seasons.

Silva	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2005	749	9.2%	1.2%	49.2%
2006	811	8.6%	3.9%	43.6%
2007	848	10.5%	4.2%	47.5%

His base-on-balls per plate appearance is absurdly low. As Cameron reaffirms this in his evaluation: "The average walkrate is 8% for a major league pitcher, though the DH makes the AL a higher walk league than the NL. Anything under 5% is tremendous, and anything over 11% is a problem." This is a strong indication that Silva knows where the plate is. Conversely, Silva's strikeout per plate appearance falls short of the league average. Cameron's research shows that "16% is league average, with 20% being terrific and 12% being a problem", Silva's best strikeout season in 2007 was still well below the acceptable rate for the league. Between strikeouts and walks, Silva was directly responsible for 125 batters-faced.

These statistics show that Silva is near the plate but not inducing swing-and-misses. His groundball per batted balls in play has been roughly above-average to average. Cameron's study says that: "42% is league average, and anything over 50% is terrific, with the best sinkerball pitchers posting rates in the 60-65% range, while anything below 35% can be a problem if its not offset with a high strikeout rate." When 723 batters were putting the ball-in-play in 2007, 402 were hitting them on the ground. Another 321 batters put the ball in play in various other manners. So at face value, Silva's ability to induce the groundball appears positive yet his inability to get strikeouts, Silva has to be extremely reliant on his defense.

Comparing Carlos Silva's 2007 to Boof Bonser's 2007 campaign, one will find not only that they shared the same ability to provoke grounders but Bonser can also retire batters through strikeouts.

Bonser	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2007	772	17.6%	8.4%	45.0%

Bonser is already a staple in the rotation and will remain there but he has been exactly the kind of young talent that Silva was blocking because Silva is viewed by the organization as an "innings-eater" and a rare, miracle groundball manufacturer while peripheral statistics indicate otherwise. Bonser had direct responsibility (strikeout or walk) for the results of 201 plate appearances. His walkrate is average as is his strikeout rate. As stated above in Cameron's research, inciting groundballs 45% of the time is above league average -- a total of 257 balls-in-play for Bonser were on the ground (which is 145 less chances for a seeing-eye, squib or bouncers down the line than Silva). Bonser has the ability to get batters out on his own, pining them at a 17.6% strikeout rate, a trait that Silva has lacked.

Dick 'n Bert's FoxSportsNet Twins Lovefest have lauded Carlos for making opposing batters beat the ball into the carpet while keeping runners off of the basepaths because of a low-walk rate. This notion coupled with Silva's relative durability (180+ in the past four seasons) and youth (28) will invariably attract attention from the inning-hording GMs. Organizations like the Royals or Mets who have admired him from afar and will overvalue innings pitched regardless of their quality will eventually sign Silva to what could conceivably reach $50 million dollars (although Sean McAdams reports that some teams recognize the depleted talent pool and will avoid the free agent overpricing by seeking a higher quality pitcher via trade )(Then again, last offseason one gm make the statement that the free agent pool was shallow and still managed to overpay for Adam Eaton ). These overinflated contracts are a result of franchises lacking the in-depth analysis into these supposed durable innings-providers that eventually culminate in allocating a significant portion of a payroll strictly to innings rather than outs.