Replacing Silva (or Adaptation)

Billy Smith had stated in early November that resigning Silva was a priority for the organization. He told La Velle at the Star Tribune that Silva "has been a good player for us, he's a good person in the clubhouse and a good member of this team" At that time I truly believed that the Twins were attempting to do whatever was necessary to bring Carlos back. Under the Terry Ryan Regime, pitching prospects were kept under the stairs in farm system. Only when the moons aligned (or Radke ailing) would Ryan release a prospect into the rotation. Lack of confidence in their own prospects was still evident in Ryan's last season as GM with the offseason signings of Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz. Ryan had seemingly created a front office policy that the organization used as a guiding principle based on inserting major league experience into the rotation in the stead of homegrown talent.

Since that article was published there has been little report of progress of resigning Silva. The Twins were giving the media lip service and had no real intention of making an offer. In the wake of the Twins making a major trade in which top pitching prospect Matt Garza was packaged, it now appears that with the changing of the guard the front office is no longer abiding by the same formula when it comes to the same pitching prospects. As it stands today, it is a forgone conclusion that Silva will not be on the 2008 squad and that (barring any more trades) the Twins will be introducing a 5th pitcher that has little to no major league experience. Had the Twins had one more option year on Silva for a reasonable contract, I would have preferred to have him return to allow for additional seasoning in the minors by some of the 5th starter candidates (Blackburn, Duensing ). Silva's "market value" is unreasonable and could easily replaced from within. As suggested previously, the Twins would stand to benefit from avoiding sinking long-term money into Carlos Silva and let organization like the Royals (who are very interested ) tangle themselves in a contractual folly.

If the world stopped spinning today, eliminating the possibility of a Santana trade and resumed when pitchers and catchers reported, the Twins rotation beginning in spring training would be:

(1) Johan Santana

(2) Scott Baker

(3) Francisco Liriano (pending full recovery)

(4) Boof Bonser

(5) Open

So what do we have to replace (and hopefully improve) when it comes to Carlos Silva? Using Dave Cameron's guideline for evaluating pitching talent, we find that Silva is incredible at finding the strike zone (his walk-rate is nearly non-existent), however he is deficient is several statistical categories, most notably lack of strikeouts (which indicate high contact rate from the batters) and the fallacy that Silva is an extreme groundball pitcher when in reality, he is above-average (Fausto Carmona is an extreme groundball pitcher nearing 60%).

Silva	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2005	749	9.2%	1.2%	49.2%
2006	811	8.6%	3.9%	43.6%
2007	848	10.5%	4.2%	47.5%

A rotation minus Silva leaves the door open for one of four pitchers: Kevin Slowey, Glen Perkins, Nick Blackburn or Brian Duensing. Applying the same standard of evaluation to the potential 5th starters, we find that the Twins have the depth to adequately replace Silva without having to worry about looking on the free agent market or from outside organizations.

Slowey is most likely the favorite to enter the rotation after spending 66.2 innings and 11 starts with the Twins in 2007. His minor league track record is nearly impeccable. In 353.2 minor league innings, Slowey has struck out 342 and walked 48.

Slowey	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2006 (AA)	242	21.5%	5.2%	40%
2007 (AAA)	523	20.5%	3.4%	43%
2007 (MLB)	297	15.8%	3.7%	30%

Slowey shares the attribute that has made Silva appealing to the Twins, which is also constantly around the strike zone. This is also a trait that Slowey will have to manage better in his second attempt in the majors considering in his brief stint with the Twins he surrendered home runs to 5.3% of batters faced. It is obvious through his strikeout rate that he has the stuff to make bats miss and with the absence of Garza it would appear that the front office will allow him slack on his learning curve

Glen Perkins, who has spent the past two season with the parent club as a left-handed out of the pen, has an equal amount of major league promise. In 334.1 innings in the Twins farm system, Perkins has struck out 353 and walked 124. After conquering the Big Ten, this former Gopher had climbed from 2004 as a 21-year-old rookie ball pitcher to a 23-year-old in 2006 who was sampling the majors for the first time.

Perkins	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2005 (AA)	346	19.4%	10.1%	x
2006 (AA)	503	26.0%	8.9%	38%
2007 (MLB)	115	17.4%	10.4%	42%

Injuries sidelined Perkins last season after he started in Triple-A and moved into the bullpen with the Twins. Like Slowey, Perkins can make batters miss. His walk-rate, however, is borderline. Cameron writes that anything over 11% is a problem and Perkins is certainly flirting with it but the sample size is relatively small to make a concluding judgement on his major league performance. The Twins will most likely not use Perkins in the rotation unless (a) he has a strong spring training, (b) Liriano is not fully healed from surgery or (c) Santana is traded. Dennys Reyes is the lone reliable lefty in the bullpen and the Twins might be considering leaving Perkins there in 2008 to complement Reyes.

When Dave Cameron at the USS Mariner was bemoaning Silva as a free agent landmine, he mentioned that the Twins could easily replace him with extreme groundball-inducer Nick Blackburn. Typically Blackburn's contract had resulted in groundballs 50% of the time. In his limited 11.2 inning exposure with the Twins in 2007, the 25-year-old righty managed to get 40% of the contact to be into the ground.

Blackburn	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2005 (A+)	384	14.3%	4.2%	x
2005 (AA)	188	14.4%	5.3%	x
2006 (AA)	565	14.3%	6.5%	48%
2007 (AA)	160	11.3%	4.4%	53%
2007 (AAA)	433	13.2%	2.8%	52%

While his ability to make batter's miss is low - below average - he will certainly drop a few more percentages once in the majors too. Blackburn is throwing the ball over the plate and is replicating Silva's inordinately low walk-rate. In a longer deployment in Triple-A, Blackburn managed to reduce his walks by half and his groundball rate was about 50% in 2007 at both Double-A and Triple-A. Blackburn is unlikely to begin the season in the rotation, in order to allow for more seasoning in the farm system but it is clear that Blackburn is the heir-apparent to being the miracle groundball inducer that some thought Silva was.

The last candidate for the 5th spot is Brian Duensing. The 24-year-old lefty made a fast ascension in the organization and reaffirmed his capabilities with a strong winter with Team USA. In 2006, he ate up three levels of ball (A, A+ and AA). In 2007 he chewed through two more (AA and AAA).

Duensing	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2006 (A)	291	18.9%	4.8%	54%
2006 (A+)	170	19.4%	4.7%	49%
2006 (AA)	211	14.2%	8.5%	55%
2007 (AA)	206	18.4%	3.4%	44%
2007 (AAA)	483	17.8%	6.2%	52%

Judging from these numbers, it could be argued that Duensing has the most potential out of the five. While lacking any experience higher than Triple-A, Duensing had adapted quite will in his first year, with a high-strikeout rate of 17.8% and a slightly higher than average walk rate (6.2%) and his groundball-rate suggests that he is able to keep the hitters off-balanced.

If the shift in policy - from protecting prospects to utilizing them - includes not only trading some prospects but also giving them innings over overpriced veteran starter (Silva), the Twins are in a very good position in the AL Central. Any of these five are capable of replacing the production that Silva could offer. My assumption is that Kevin Slowey will have every opportunity to enter Silva's role in 2008 but with four other strong candidates behind him, it would be in Slowey's best interested to emerge as a reliable starter otherwise the Twins have numerous options to replace him. What is even more encouraging is the depth that the Twins have behind these four as well: Anthony Swarzak, Yohan Pino , Jeff Manship, Tyler Robertson, et al.

Trade Confirmed

• La Velle confirmed a recent trade rumor which is now official that the Twins have acquired Delmon Young, Brendan Harris and prospect Jason Pridie from the Tampa Bay Rays for Garza, Bartlett and Eduardo Morlan (ESPN's take here). As I have stated earlier I have no problem with the Twins trading Garza for Young but believed the Twins would have had to add to the package to substantiate this offer. Young seems to outweight Garza in value with the upside. I think Young will have the better chance of performing higher than his ceiling potential than Garza does.

• I think Bartlett for Harris is a relatively straight-up trade. Harris has a little less experienced than Bartlett at the major league level and has bounced around in several organization (Cubs, Expos, Reds, Nationals, Rays) before having a solid season last year with the Rays (.286/.343/.434, 12 HRs). Harris's numbers have fluctuated over the years and will make less contact than Bartlett but he can hit for more power than Bartlett can (a .148 vs. a .098 ISOP). Harris, however, is more of a second-baseman than a shortstop. While Bartlett made 13 errors in 2007 in 138 games as the Twins shortstop, Harris made 11 in 87 games. Verdict: Harris is a more potent bat, but Bartlett had a better glove and better contact hitter. Hopefully the Twins have intentions of moving Harris to third or second. Maybe the Twins cleared the roster spot for a bigger fish moving to shortstop...
  

• The third members of the trade are interesting. Jason Pridie was a Twins Rule 5 draft pick last year. The 24-year-old centerfielder had a good season split between Double-A and Triple-A. In 275 plate appearances for the Durham Bulls, Pridie had and isolated slugging percentage of .221 - a home run every 3.6% of his plate appearances. While still really nubile in the Twins farm system, I believe with the potential that Morlan has he could have been packaged in a better trade. Earlier rumors had Juan Rincon attached (and judging from the Rays previous trades for Houston's Dan Wheeler, it was plausible ).

• It would have been been a terrific trade had the Twins gotten Young, Harris and Pridie for Garza, Bartlett and Rincon. Unfortunately the Twins had to surrender one of their better bullpen prospects.

• Regardless, I think the GM Smitty has improve this team in ways that Terry Ryan would dare not dream. Smitty has signified that this new regime will not be after to make moves. I am more convinced than ever that both Santana AND Nathan could be traded this offseason. On the FAN, Mark Rosen believed it was quite a gamble for the Twins front office to move major league experienced pitching without the knowledge that Liriano will be 100% by opening day. Then again, Smitty might be ready to add more MLB ready pitching in the forecasted Santana/Nathan trades. The Twins are, however, still deficient in the thirdbase/centerfielder positions. However, from what I know about what planning goes on in the front office, moves are not made simply to shift attention from one area and away from the other. This move might also have players repackaged into other trades before the offseason is over.

Erasing Silva: (Or Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind)

Carlos Silva is poised for a pay increase this offseason, upwards of $9 million a season, because of his ability to amass innings. There is basic baseball theory in which Silva's forthcoming payday is predicated upon. It is the idea that if your starting pitching can provide six-plus innings an outing, your bullpen will be considerably fresh during the back-end of a three or four game series. General Managers have allocated a significant portion of their pitching staff to players that have at certain points in their career have proven they can meet or exceed two hundred innings in a given season. The Milwaukee Brewers signed Jeff Suppan to a 4 yr/$42 million dollar contract based upon his perceived durability. The theory certainly has teeth. After all, if your bullpen cannot be trusted with a lead, a short-term fix would be to sign a pitcher that can throw 50+ more innings per season. The basis for Silva's enlarged paycheck revolves are three elements: 1) he throws a lot of innings, 2) his walk-rate is minuscule and 3) he induces groundballs with his sinker.

Are these three reasons enough to commit $50 million and 5-years?

To answer that question we have to address the aforementioned three elements and prove why those elements are not rationale enough to resign Silva. Fortunately for me, the wheel does not have to be reinvented as Dave Cameron at the USS Mariner has already assembled a guide to Evaluating Pitching Talent. In the chart below, are Silva's critical pitching statistical categories the past three seasons.

Silva	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2005	749	9.2%	1.2%	49.2%
2006	811	8.6%	3.9%	43.6%
2007	848	10.5%	4.2%	47.5%

His base-on-balls per plate appearance is absurdly low. As Cameron reaffirms this in his evaluation: "The average walkrate is 8% for a major league pitcher, though the DH makes the AL a higher walk league than the NL. Anything under 5% is tremendous, and anything over 11% is a problem." This is a strong indication that Silva knows where the plate is. Conversely, Silva's strikeout per plate appearance falls short of the league average. Cameron's research shows that "16% is league average, with 20% being terrific and 12% being a problem", Silva's best strikeout season in 2007 was still well below the acceptable rate for the league. Between strikeouts and walks, Silva was directly responsible for 125 batters-faced.

These statistics show that Silva is near the plate but not inducing swing-and-misses. His groundball per batted balls in play has been roughly above-average to average. Cameron's study says that: "42% is league average, and anything over 50% is terrific, with the best sinkerball pitchers posting rates in the 60-65% range, while anything below 35% can be a problem if its not offset with a high strikeout rate." When 723 batters were putting the ball-in-play in 2007, 402 were hitting them on the ground. Another 321 batters put the ball in play in various other manners. So at face value, Silva's ability to induce the groundball appears positive yet his inability to get strikeouts, Silva has to be extremely reliant on his defense.

Comparing Carlos Silva's 2007 to Boof Bonser's 2007 campaign, one will find not only that they shared the same ability to provoke grounders but Bonser can also retire batters through strikeouts.

Bonser	Batters Faced	K%	BB%	GB%
2007	772	17.6%	8.4%	45.0%

Bonser is already a staple in the rotation and will remain there but he has been exactly the kind of young talent that Silva was blocking because Silva is viewed by the organization as an "innings-eater" and a rare, miracle groundball manufacturer while peripheral statistics indicate otherwise. Bonser had direct responsibility (strikeout or walk) for the results of 201 plate appearances. His walkrate is average as is his strikeout rate. As stated above in Cameron's research, inciting groundballs 45% of the time is above league average -- a total of 257 balls-in-play for Bonser were on the ground (which is 145 less chances for a seeing-eye, squib or bouncers down the line than Silva). Bonser has the ability to get batters out on his own, pining them at a 17.6% strikeout rate, a trait that Silva has lacked.

Dick 'n Bert's FoxSportsNet Twins Lovefest have lauded Carlos for making opposing batters beat the ball into the carpet while keeping runners off of the basepaths because of a low-walk rate. This notion coupled with Silva's relative durability (180+ in the past four seasons) and youth (28) will invariably attract attention from the inning-hording GMs. Organizations like the Royals or Mets who have admired him from afar and will overvalue innings pitched regardless of their quality will eventually sign Silva to what could conceivably reach $50 million dollars (although Sean McAdams reports that some teams recognize the depleted talent pool and will avoid the free agent overpricing by seeking a higher quality pitcher via trade )(Then again, last offseason one gm make the statement that the free agent pool was shallow and still managed to overpay for Adam Eaton ). These overinflated contracts are a result of franchises lacking the in-depth analysis into these supposed durable innings-providers that eventually culminate in allocating a significant portion of a payroll strictly to innings rather than outs.

Hot Stove Indulges

During the offseason there is no shortage of inane rumors. Fox Sport's Ben Maller offers plenty of links to a nation of columnists and writers that go to print with a trade offer that seems completely make-believe. One of my personal favorites is Paul Hoynsie in Cleveland who does his best to fan and extinguish some of those very rumors for the Tribe in his Q & A column "Hey, Hoynsie!" Considering the gaping holes in the Twins lineup (third, DH, center) and the league's fetish with young pitching, one could easily put team names in a hat and concoct your very own rumor. Thankfully it is not necessary to find a hat. Locally, the Twin Citians are fortunate enough to have two such sources for hot-stove hearsay: Shooter and Sid.

(As a confession, in spite of the recent gaffs of A) reporting that the Twins will indeed have a centerfielder next season (an excellent follow-up to his prior column "Water is Wet"), B) reporting that the Twins lost Alexander Smit to the Reds "the other day" in October when "the other day" happened to be in the previous July (but hey, we've all misplaced blocks of time), and C) making a claim about Silva's contract offer that was totally unfounded, like Nick & Nick, I somehow maintain the belief that Charley Walters rumors carries significantly more weight than Grandpa Sports in the Westside Fishwrap. While both columnists show signs of phoning it in Walters - with no real evidence to prove this credibility aside from his previous connection to the Twins organization - is seemingly the more trustworthy source.)

In his most recent column, Charley Walters has indicated that 34 Kirby Puckett Place is still in contact with the Tampa Bay and discussing a Delmon Young-for-Matt Garza swap. Arriving at this speculation must have been no small feat for Shooter. After all A) the newly-dubbed Tampa Bay Rays have a glutton of young outfielders and the Twins are in desperate demand for such a product and B) the Twins have a surplus of young, inexpensive pitching the likes of which every organization envies. A well-placed phone call to the Twins front office might have confirm that A) the Rays have outfielders and B) the Twins have pitchers. Following that, all a columnist had to do was fill in the blanks that the Rays are willing to trade Outfielder X for Twins Pitcher Y. (Or, perhaps read one of Joe Christensen's past articles from the beginning of November). Story written.

Meanwhile, Rotoworld has already refuted the Young-Garza deal (and as we will see with good reason) but let's play devil (ray)'s advocate and indulge Walters and assume this deal is indeed discussed between the two organizations. This is precisely the transaction that would benefit the Twins long run. When the Montreal Expos swapped Cliff Floyd to the Florida Marlins for Dustin Hermanson and Joe Orsulak, Floyd had spent parts of four season on the Expos roster. He was a young corner outfielder that had previously destroyed Double-A and Triple-A pitching and in 1994 placed 5th in the Rookie of the Year voting. After coming to Florida, Floyd hit very well and established himself as a premium player in the National League. Likewise, Delmon Young has done the same to minor league pitching for the Tampa organization. Last season he finished second to the Red Sox's Dustin Pedroia as the runner-up for the Rookie of the Year in the American League. He hit left-handed pitching well (.299/.326/.427) and played in all 162 games for the AL East's perennial losers.

Needless to say, the Twins would greatly benefit from Young's right-handed presence in the lineup.

I have long felt that many of the Twins pitchers are replaceable from within the farm system. If the right deal were presented Baker, Bonser, Slowey and Garza are all expendable. Delmon Young is that type of player. While displaying flashes of brilliance, Garza is certainly not a guaranteed number 1 starter in a rotation. In his previous two seasons with the major league club, Garza has a career strikeout rate of 17.9% (of the 599 batters faced, Garza has pined 105 of them). Comparatively, Garza falls between Scott Baker (who has a career strikeout rate of 16.3%) and Boof Bonser (who is at 18.4%). Baseball Think Factory's ZiPs has Garza finishing 2008 with a 13-12 record and a 4.21 era. If the Twins enter 2008 with a rotation of Santana, Liriano, Baker, Bonser and Slowey ZiPs projects that this group would accrue roughly 63 victories. Substituting Garza for Baker, Bonser or Slowey would only aid the Twins only two or three projected victories.

If Garza were to be traded for Young, the pitching prospects in the farm system including Nick Blackburn, Brian Duensing, Anthony Swarzak and Yohan Pino will be ready to enter the rotation following the 2008 season. Garza's potential output would easily be reproduced by a younger prospect. I do believe he has the opportunity to have a brilliant pitching career -- most likely as a mid-rotation guy on a good team -- but the chances of an arm injury add risk, which is why (pending a break-out season) the market for Garza might not get any better.

The Rays are hardly without pitching but like almost every franchise it could use more. With a 2008 rotation that will include Scott Kazmir, James Shields, JP Howell and Andy Sonnanstine, a staff that ZiPs projects to win an estimated 42 games, a solid arm like Garza added to the front of this rotation would provide an additional young talent and has the potential to add 5 to 6 more wins per season over any other starter in the Rays system. Considering Garza's projected 2008 era is 4.21 and better than everyone on the Rays staff besides Kazmir's, he could be the number 2 starter in Tampa.

So the fact that the Tampa Bay Rays would immediately benefit from Matt Garza is substantiated as well.

The problem is that in all likelihood if the Twins were that interested in Young, the Rays would ask for another player or two with Garza to make it happen. Similar to the Twins pitching surplus, the Rays have a like situation in the outfield. Currently on the roster the Rays have Upton, Young, Baldelli, Crawford, Gomes, and Dukes in the outfield. The Rays could conceivably trade Young and replace him with another outfielder, however, he is cheap and will avoid arbitration until after the 2010 season. A player like Delmon Young who finished strong in 2007 can definitely replicate his numbers in the coming seasons. Which begs the question: Of all the potential trading pieces, why would the Rays trade Young? If you were the Rays front office would you not most likely consider moving the often-injured Baldelli, the free-swinging Gomes, the domestically-abusing Dukes or the soon-to-be-expensive Crawford prior to Young unless you were blown away by an offer?

The fact is that even though the Twins and the Rays have something the other wants, it does not mean that the two organizations will agree on the price-point.

Torii: Go West, Young Man.

Young might be a bit of a stretch nonetheless Torii's youthful and infectious smile coupled with his front-and-center interviews with Best-Damn-Sports-Show-Period will play well from LA-LA Land. For a spell. As Dave over at USS Mariner has pointed out, Torii's contract demand is a "landmine" - the back-end of his contract would be too pricey for a 37-year-old corner outfielder who could be on and off the DL regularly. Considering the market for a centerfielder (White Sox, Rangers, Dodgers, Angels, Twins), his valuation was expected to be through the roof. there are plenty of franchises just has eager to hand over the money for the front part of his contract. The Angels will certainly look like the team to beat in the AL West with Matthews and Hunter patrolling two-thirds of the outfield. The Twins are small market team and were not willing to subtract from the talent of the ballclub in contract years four and five and I for one cannot blame them.

Where I can blame them is for not adequately preparing for this very situation. Whether it was Twins not restaffing the farm system with centerfield candidates when Denard Span did not live up to his prospect status or the inability to move Hunter in the past offseason (or during the season for that matter) or the foresight necessary to read the free agent/trade market for current centerfielders. I can blame the organization for not being prepared for this. I can.

Torii was on Dan Barreiro this afternoon repeating the mantra that he really, really, really wanted to stay with the Twins, and Barreiro was pissy about the Twins not offering him the money, but $18 million a season is crazy dough. It is, no question. And the Angels are just the franchise to understand what it means to overpay a centerfielder. This past offseason the Angels signed the 32-year-old Gary Matthews Jr to a unconscionable contract calling for 5-years/$55 million. Similar to Hunter, Matthews had a season that was well above his career numbers. His career line was .263/.336/.419 through 2006 following a break out .313/.371/.495 2006 campaign for the Texas Rangers. In his first season with the Angels in his new contract, he performed below his previous career line at .252/.323/.419. While not known for being nearly as fluctuating offensively as Matthews, what some argue as Hunter's best season (I disagree, it was his 26-year-old season in 2002), his 2007 line of .287/.334/.505 was significantly higher than his career line at .271/.324/.469.

Does this mean he won't replicate his 2007 performance? Of course not, he still could hit with the same numbers but all statistical indicators regarding age and previous performance tells us that he certainly won't produce steadily that kind of output over the course of a five-year contract. In fact, it is more probable that his output could significantly drop-off in 2008. His defense will continue to be an asset, and I would assume that he will be a great corner outfielder when his 37-year-old legs finally breakdown in year four or five of his contract minus the power that comes from a left or right fielder. The Twins knew this and decided not to play ball.