Torii: Go West, Young Man.

Young might be a bit of a stretch nonetheless Torii's youthful and infectious smile coupled with his front-and-center interviews with Best-Damn-Sports-Show-Period will play well from LA-LA Land. For a spell. As Dave over at USS Mariner has pointed out, Torii's contract demand is a "landmine" - the back-end of his contract would be too pricey for a 37-year-old corner outfielder who could be on and off the DL regularly. Considering the market for a centerfielder (White Sox, Rangers, Dodgers, Angels, Twins), his valuation was expected to be through the roof. there are plenty of franchises just has eager to hand over the money for the front part of his contract. The Angels will certainly look like the team to beat in the AL West with Matthews and Hunter patrolling two-thirds of the outfield. The Twins are small market team and were not willing to subtract from the talent of the ballclub in contract years four and five and I for one cannot blame them.

Where I can blame them is for not adequately preparing for this very situation. Whether it was Twins not restaffing the farm system with centerfield candidates when Denard Span did not live up to his prospect status or the inability to move Hunter in the past offseason (or during the season for that matter) or the foresight necessary to read the free agent/trade market for current centerfielders. I can blame the organization for not being prepared for this. I can.

Torii was on Dan Barreiro this afternoon repeating the mantra that he really, really, really wanted to stay with the Twins, and Barreiro was pissy about the Twins not offering him the money, but $18 million a season is crazy dough. It is, no question. And the Angels are just the franchise to understand what it means to overpay a centerfielder. This past offseason the Angels signed the 32-year-old Gary Matthews Jr to a unconscionable contract calling for 5-years/$55 million. Similar to Hunter, Matthews had a season that was well above his career numbers. His career line was .263/.336/.419 through 2006 following a break out .313/.371/.495 2006 campaign for the Texas Rangers. In his first season with the Angels in his new contract, he performed below his previous career line at .252/.323/.419. While not known for being nearly as fluctuating offensively as Matthews, what some argue as Hunter's best season (I disagree, it was his 26-year-old season in 2002), his 2007 line of .287/.334/.505 was significantly higher than his career line at .271/.324/.469.

Does this mean he won't replicate his 2007 performance? Of course not, he still could hit with the same numbers but all statistical indicators regarding age and previous performance tells us that he certainly won't produce steadily that kind of output over the course of a five-year contract. In fact, it is more probable that his output could significantly drop-off in 2008. His defense will continue to be an asset, and I would assume that he will be a great corner outfielder when his 37-year-old legs finally breakdown in year four or five of his contract minus the power that comes from a left or right fielder. The Twins knew this and decided not to play ball.

The Star Tribune's Lavelle E. Neal is reporting that the Twins have strong interest in signing Tony Clark and ESPN's Buster Olney just labeled Clark as the number 1 undervalued free agent this offseason.

These rumors, speculations and subsequent signings of supposed "re-treads" has understandably agitated the Twins fan base. After all, we have been bombarded by a plethora of offseason signings of the aging Batistas, Sierras, Cirillos, and Whites (twice!) in the twilight of the Terry Ryan era. These were certainly low-risk signings but also proven to be low-reward ones too. And had the Twins compiled a shred of research on those players, it would have been clear that the percentages of the bargain-bin players to reward the organization with any offensive production was minuscule at best.

Rarely in the past few offseasons had the Twins had the opportunity to sign an offensive player that would have provided runs at a low-price. In hindsight, the Twins should have been the ones who structured a deal with Frank Thomas instead of Oakland who did in 2006. Thomas, of course, was one of the offensive catalysts that lead Oakland into the 2006 playoffs where he destroyed Twins pitching, hammering 2 home runs in 10 at-bats in 3 games. In the ALCS Thomas was shut down by the steamrolling Detriot Tigers pitching staff who rendered him hitless in 13 at-bats. For $500,000 plus incentives, Oakland obtained the 38-year-old designated hitter who would finish the season with 466 at-bats, mashing 39 home runs with a .270/.381/.545 batting line. Obviously everybody organization would have knocked down their own grandmothers for a deal like that.

At the time there was initial trepidation among baseball insiders as to the kind of season Thomas would produce which was why he could be had for a pittance. In the two previous seasons leading up to his offseason signing with Oakland, Thomas was limited to 345 at-bats. Many believed that Thomas was all but washed up. In 2005, it appeared that his legendary plate discipline had disappeared. Thomas routinely walked more times than he struck out in a season. In 1993 he had a total of 112 walks and only 54 strikeouts. In his appearances in 2005 for the Sox, Thomas struck out 31 in 105 at-bats and walked only 16 times. Injuries and attitude had led to the Chicago White Sox cutting ties with a player that had been with the organization since 1989.

All that for half-a-million.

Which brings me to the Twins interest in Clark. I mentioned Thomas above because over the course of the next week or so, the local media will undoubtedly draw comparisons to Thomas (mainly the age, power and the prospect of a rebound season). Their ability to hit the long ball is what binds these two players together. Thomas has hit a home run in 5.2% of his plate appearances while Clark has deposited home runs in 5.0% of his. While Thomas has hit extra-base hits in 10.3% of his plate appearances, Clark has nearly matched that doing so in 9.8% of his. Realize that Tony Clark and Frank Thomas are not even remotely in the same realm when it comes to discussing plate disciple. As mentioned before, Thomas had a keen batting eye that led to numerous walks and a .421 career on-base percentage. Baseball Propectus described Clark in their book "Mind Game" as a free-swinging out machine and his career obp of .339 reflects that. Over the course of his career, Clark has struck out in 23.2% of his plate appearances. Thomas has struck out in only 13.6% of his. Parish the thought that a signing of Clark could emulate numbers like Thomas provide Oakland in 2006. They are not the same hitter. This is not even apples to oranges. It is apples to something entirely inedible.

The Star Tribune article suggests that Clark is looking for an AL team to designate hit for so that he can achieve 400 plate appearances again. For the record, the last time Clark managed to get to the plate 400 times in a season would be in 2001 where he struck out in 21.7% of them. Admittedly, I do not think the acquisition of Tony Clark would be as disastrous as Tony Batista was provided that the Twins front office comprehend what they have. Clark is a proven pinch-hitter. In 2007, Clark made 36 pinch-hitting appearances for the Diamondbacks and hit .250/.333/.563 and slugged 3 home runs. Meanwhile the Twins were relegated to marching Jason Tyner to the plate as a substitute in the bottom of the ninth to face the dominate closers. For my money, it would behoove the Twins to send Clark to the plate and pinch run Tyner for him once he does drive home the tying run. The problem is, the Twins would not leverage Clark to his potential and give him too many at-bats.

Ultimately, I would speculate that with the rumors that multiple AL teams are looking for a serviceable designated hitter and NL teams who have an opening at 1B or the bench will ultimately raise Tony Clark's potential contract amount. The market will push the value of a 36-year-old free-swinger well beyond a reasonable contract. If the Twins do obtain Clark (and keep Monroe as well), it will be a decent gauge of what flexibility new GM Bill Smith is allotted for payroll.

The Monroe Doctrine (Or How I Learned To Not Accept the Twins Offseason Moves)

A few days has passed since the Twins announced that they are relinquishing one of their dimmer stars for the 30-year-old Craig Monroe. While most in the Twins community seem to believe that this is yet again another indication that the Twins are only interested in second-rate stars (Gleeman, TwinsGeek, Nick&Nick ) and truthfully that was my initial gut reaction as well. Why spend any amount of the payroll towards Monroe even if he is a 4th outfielder/DH platoon? Last year the Twins acquired Jeff Cirillo in what turned out to be the final season of his career. When Cirillo wasn't on the DL, his contributions were minimal and was eventually waived and picked up by the Diamondbacks. To some, it would appear that the Twins were once again acquiring an overpaid, low-reward hitter.

Don't be fooled because this is exactly what they got. The only mitigating factor is how the team deploys Monroe.

When the rumor mill began to buzz that the Twins were in talks with the Cubbies for Monroe, my first inclination was that if you are negotiating with the Cubs, why not attempt to get Matt Murton, a young right-handed bat with years left in his legs? After all, the numbers certain indicate that Monroe has probably peaked with his production. Monroe's numbers prior to his 2007 drop-off were not all that impressive and since his best offensive season in 2004 he has steadily declined and his strike out rate has increased.

Monroe	AVG.	OBP.	SLG.	BB%	K%
2004	.293	.337	.488	6.0%	16.4%
2005	.277	.322	.446	6.4%	15.2%
2006	.255	.301	.482	6.3%	21.5%
2007	.219	.268	.370	6.0%	25.0%

In an ensuing conversation with a high-ranking organizational official, I learned that the Twins view Monroe as a no-risk deal. Essentially the Twins bought themselves the ability to get a free look at Monroe and the ability to negotiate a lower contract. The team believes that Monroe would be a better option instead of Lew Ford as the outfielder on the bench. Meanwhile, Murton was discussed both internally and with the Cubs, however the consensus within the organization is that Murton is not an "everyday player" and the Cubs were seeking several prospects in exchange for Murton.

The Cubs wanted too much for Murton and the Twins were only in the market for a 4th outfielder/platoon DH with power that is seemingly affordable (giving up a Garza or Slowey isn't affordable). I realize that the parameters that the Twins acquired when they sold a prospect for Monroe was the right to (hopefully) reduce his salary to play a very specific role: a right-handed platoon and a power-bat off the bench in a pinch-hitter capacity. Only there are two problems with that: (a) Monroe is not a particularly good hitter against left-handed pitching and (b) Monroe has made 25 pinch-hitting appearance and has hit exactly zero home runs.

So is Monroe the solution to the Twins problem? No.

As a vigilant advocate for Kevin Mench, a player that has continual speculation that the Brewers are going to non-tender him this offseason, I believe the Twins should be bringing Mench in instead of Monroe. In 812 plate appearances against southpaws in his career Monroe has hit .273/.319/.495 (6.7%BB%/18.5%K%). Mench, however, in 775 plate appearances against left-handers has hit .305/.361/.563 (7.7%BB%/6.8%K%). Monroe has hit home runs in 4.4% of his plate appearances against lefties. Mench has homed in 5.1% of his.

While I was lead to believe in my brief conversation with the Twins official that the options present were Lew Ford versus Craig Monroe, in which case, everyone would hopefully opt for Monroe. The spin from the front office would like you to believe that there were no other options for the same product for the same price range when that simply wasn't the case. There was a better product at the same price range.

Prospects in the Pen

Three minor leaguers you will hear about in 2008:

Jose Mijares

2007	Batters Faced	K%	BB%
AA/AAA	316	25.6%	16.7%

A girthier Dennys Reyes (if that's possible), the 22-year-old, 6 foot, 230 lb lefty has made a quick ascension through the Twins organization. Originally signed as a 17-year-old out of Venezula, Mijares dominated in the bullpen at every level moving from from a 19-year-old rookie ball closer to the 22-year-old left-handed specialist who is currently playing for the Tigres de Aragua in the Venezuela Winter League. Last season when camp broke, Mijares had the tragedy of losing his brother to violence in Venezuela. He is certain to begin the season in Rochester, however, if Liriano is not ready by the opener and Glen Perkins is moved into the starting rotation, Mijares might be tapped to be an additional left-hander out of the bullpen.

Bobby Korecky

2007	Batters Faced	K%	BB%
AAA	358	19.8%	9.4%

The 28-year-old Korecky was the final player sent to the Twins in the Eric Milton deal with Philadelphia in December 2003. Drafted by the Phillies in 2002 out of Michigan, Korecky was the centerpiece of their pitching staff. In the Phillies farm system, Korecky bounced between a starter and a reliever until his final season there in high-A Clearwater. Once with the Twins, he moved to Double-A New Britain and continued to perform well in the pen. In April 2005, Korecky underwent season-ending Tommy John surgery but reemerged in 2006 with 13 saves he split between Double and Triple-A. Rochester leveraged Korecky like the relief aces of old. In 66 appearances, Korecky pitched 85 innings and saved 35 games an all-time high for Rochester (a mark that was previous set at 23 by Travis Bowyer). Currently pitching with the Tigres in the Venezuelan league, Korecky has held batters to a .179 average in 10.2 innings pitched. Because of the Twins' glutton of bullpen help, his age and his overinflated saves, Korecky could stand as a great bargaining chip much like Bowyer was in getting Luis Castillo. I would not be surprised to see him move prior to the beginning of spring training. If he is not, he could be brought in midseason to play the role Matt Guerrier played in 2006 if Guerrier expands to be more of a specialist of late inning stopper that Juan Rincon once was.

Eduardo Morlan

2007	Batters Faced	K%	BB%
A+/AA	289	34.2%	6.9%

This 21-year-old right-handed Cuban, tore through the Florida League in 2007. He was dispatching batters at a 30%+ rate. If you watch this video of him warming-up, you will notice that he is built solid from the waist-down much like a younger version of Juan Rincon. While his lead foot does not reach and drive as much as some of the other pitchers who generate power from their legs (Colon comes to mind), it is obvious that he has a very steady, very balanced delivery. While still a season away from the majors since Morlan only has limited time in Double-A, Baseball Prospectus's Joe Sheehan views him as potential trade bait for the Twins to find a power-hitting third baseman (namely Garrett Atkins).

What to do with Rincon

In an alternate 2007, the Twins would have passed on pitchers Sidney Ponson and Ramon Ortiz opting to use Matt Garza, Kevin Slowey or Glen Perkins from opening day in the rotation, they would have declined to resign Rondell White instead electing to extend Torii Hunter's contract passed 2007 (before the season began when his stock was still reasonable), offered a minor league contract and an invitation spring training to Dmitri Young, traded a C-list pitching prospect for career minor leaguer Jack Cust, traded one or two of several pitchers from the farm system to the Milwaukee Brewers for Kevin Mench, and, most importantly, packaged Juan Rincon in a trade with one of several teams looking for bullpen help.

With the 2007 emergence of Pat Neshek as Gardenhire's 8th inning guy, it was apparent that Juan Rincon was being phased out of the primary set-up role to Joe Nathan. Rincon certainly did not aid his cause with his regression into a bullpen liability either. Some have questioned whether the decrease in productivity was directly correlated to his 2005 suspension for his use of performance-enhancing drugs. Following the 2006 season in which his strikeouts per game plummeted from 12.6 in 2004 to 10.1 in 2005 to 8.0 in 2006, Rincon avoided arbitration by signing a 1-year, $2 million dollar contract. The Twins were rewarded in 2007 by his worse season to date, posting averaging 7.0 strikeouts per 9 innings and surrendering 9 home runs in 59.7 innings (a horrid 16.1% home runs to flyballs ratio). Not only were his 63 appearances in 2007 a low in the previous four seasons and his ERA had inflated to 5.13, nearly 2 runs higher than his previous 3 seasons.

Gardenhire began dispatching Neshek into the 8th innings regularly in 2007. In 171 matchups in the 8th inning, batters were hitting a paltry .193/.278/.359 with 39 strikeouts (22.8% K%) and 18 walks (10.5% BB%). Meanwhile, Rincon was asked to retire 108 batters in the 8th inning and faired poorly letting hitters bat .313/.361/.525 with only 21 strikeouts (19.4% K%) but only 7 walks issued (6.4% BB%). The numbers indicate that Rincon certainly was around the strike zone but was being hit hard.

It was clear that Rincon was expendable. Despite a decline in production, Rincon (or rather the entity that he is) was still highly valued in major league baseball terms prior to and during the 2007 season. Focus after the 2006 season was the bullpen. Cleveland, Detroit, and Baltimore all gave lucrative contracts to relievers attempting to bolster ailing pens. Rincon, meanwhile, has been a proven set-up man still arbitration eligible. In mid-season 2007, teams were willing to part with young players for bullpen help: The Dodgers gave up Wilson Betemit for the Yankees Scott Proctor. Super utility player Ty Wigginton was traded to Houston for Dan Wheeler. Naturally, both Proctor and Wheeler had a better leverage considering Proctor had the most appearances the previous season and Wheeler had those coveted (yet overrated) saves in his resume. And neither were implicated in substance abuse allegations.

In 2007, Scott Proctor was having a down-year coming off a season in which he had 83 appearances with the Yankees in 2006. In 2006, the 30-year-old right-handed reliever was averaging 8 strikeouts per 9 innings while walking only 3 and giving up 12 home runs in 102.3 innings pitched. Aside from Rivera, Proctor was the most reliable member of the Yankees bullpen. In 52 appearance in 2007, Proctor's strikeout rate was down to 5.8 per 9 innings and his walk rate had inflated to 4.6. On July 31st, the teams on rival coast's made the deal sending Betemit to New York and Proctor as bullpen insurance in LA. While Proctor's strikeout rate improved slightly in the Senior Circuit (7.7 per 9) he still was putting people on base regularly (4.4 walks per 9). The Dodgers never really had faith in Wilson Betemit and had several prospects ahead of him at third base. While displaying some power, Betemit strikes out too frequently and is not that good with the leather. The 25-year-old Betemit hit .262/.322/.417 in three seasons of Triple-A. In retrospect, is that the Twins could have marketed Rincon to the Dodgers as their potential bullpen insurance and the Twins would have been happy to have another candidate for third.

Ty Wigginton was frequently mentioned on the rumor mill list because of his pop and ability to play all 9 positions. Tampa Bay was looking for anything with an arm that threw in the general vicinity of the plate. Houston had been playing musical closers with Brad Lidge and Dan Wheeler. Wheeler was the likely candidate to move. His productivity was a swing-pendulum at one point in the season he was closing games and at others he was in mop-up duty. Wheeler's stock benefited the most from having saves. In 2007, he had trouble with runners in scoring position and 2-outs, a critical matchup where you would want your reliever to win on more occasions. In 45 matchups, batters hit .432/533/.622 and surrendered 18 runs. Rincon on the otherhand, was deployed 29 times in similar situations and rendered only 4 hits and 7 runs while limiting batters to a .154/.241/.154. In all likelihood, the Twins would have had to do some savvy marketing and package Rincon with another prospect to balance the Wigginton deal.

What is apparent is that the Twins do not understand how to evaluate the trade market. As confidence in Rincon was slipping withing the organization coupled with Neshek, Jesse Crain and Matt Guerrier's ability to provide the same output as Rincon was did in latter innings, the Twins should have been determined to unload him while the market was still high on right handed relievers.